Burlington Hawk Eye, IA
06-18-06
Newspapers' survey on consolidation questioned
By AIMEE TABOR
atabor@thehawkeye.com
A survey asking Lee County residents their thoughts about office consolidation
will give supervisors a general indication of the public's view, but has the
potential to be flawed.
The survey, which is being published in the Daily Democrat in Fort Madison and
the Daily Gate City in Keokuk, focuses only on the newspapers' subscribers and
has the potential to allow one person to respond multiple times. The survey,
which doesn't ask for the person's name, contains 10 questions for residents to
answer.
"It's unfortunately not very reliable," said Jean Opsomer, director of the Center
for Survey Statistics and Methodology at Iowa State University. "It's just
going to be giving you an indication."
Some questions ask residents how they conduct business at the county offices,
their preference on the number of offices and courthouse and how it would affect
taxes and if residents would attend a public forum held by the supervisors.
"Only people who read the paper are going to be sampled through this, so that
right there is not a sample of all the residents in the county," Opsomer said. "If
people have strong opinions, they can send it in every week."
To get a true representation, Opsomer said a random pool of residents would
have to be chosen and sent a letter. To prevent the survey tracking someone by
name, she suggested attaching a code to the individual survey.
Follow–up letters and even telephone calls usually are part of the survey,
Opsomer said, and the county's method won't have a scientific margin of error.
Four of the five supervisors said the survey could weigh heavily in their decision
if the county receives enough responses — anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000.
Supervisor Bob Woodruff, who several supervisors said has offered to tabulate
the results and worked on some of the questions, did not return calls for
comment.
The rest of the supervisors, however, said the survey will help get input from a
diverse group of residents. Although the supervisors have held several public
forums, the survey will reach even more residents who can share ideas on the
issue.
"I think the survey should weigh very heavily if we get a good sampling,"
Chairman George Morgan said. "We're certainly hoping for that. It would be hard
to weigh a decision that has countywide ramifications on 100 surveys returned."
Vice Chairman Larry Kruse agreed.
"In a survey, to have it representative of the general feeling of the people, you
need a fairly good size sampling," Kruse said. "I would think we would want at
least one or two thousand to really consider it a valid opinion."
Supervisors Rick Larkin and Joe Kowzan also said they would like to see a
decent return.
"The important thing is the amount we get in," Kowzan said. "If we get in like
three or four hundred responses, that may not be enough to give an indication of
what the total population is thinking."
As for how the questions were formulated, the supervisors weren't sure. They
said the newspapers, both owned by Brehm Communications, approached the
supervisors, but differed on the extent of how they were formulated.
Morgan said he wasn't involved in the process. All he knew was the newspapers
approached the supervisors.
Kruse said the newspapers came up with the questions and the supervisors
reviewed and commented on them.
"The idea for the survey was actually from the Democrat," Kruse said. "It's
actually their survey, but they wanted to have it sent to us for the tabulation."
"The paper came up with some of the questions and we looked at that and we
made some of our own and so forth, so it's just a combination of working with the
local Democrat," Kowzan said.
Larkin said he believes Woodruff helped write the questions with the newspaper.
"I read them over once before they went in, but I didn't tell him (Woodruff) one
way or another what to do with it," Larkin said. "This wasn't something formally
that the board sat down and wrote up together."
The survey forms don't have to be signed by the respondents. However, the
supervisors said they don't foresee one person filling out multiple surveys. The
cost of postage also would deter people from doing that.
"A far bigger concern is that nobody sends them in, which isn't the case," Kruse
said. "I think there's been a fair number sent in already."
Larkin said that's an issue the supervisors will have to look at when reviewing the
surveys. Larkin doesn't anticipate duplicates either.
"If you're going to turn them in, you're probably going to have to go out and buy a
lot of newspapers to throw the results off," Larkin said. "If someone copies them,
I don't know whether that would be accepted by us. I think we want the exact
copies from the newspaper. That would make it more difficult."
Kowzan said there's nothing stopping a person from submitting multiple copies.
He said it's a person's prerogative to fill out more than one if they choose to do
so, but he doesn't foresee it happening.
"The key is just getting them to turn in one," Kowzan said.
As for compiling the results, several supervisors said either the board will,
Woodruff or a combination.
"I think Bob (Woodruff) will and maybe one of us might participate with him so
we'll probably have two that will probably take a look at this and do a statistical
analysis of the questions," Kowzan said.