Completion Rates and
Student Success
Scott Ralls
North Carolina
Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
North Carolina
Population Pyramids
Percent of Total Population: Age and Gender
2030
2000
Male
5
4
3
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
Female
2
8/11/2009
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Male
5
4
Female
3
2
1
0
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
1
2
3
4
2
5
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or
Higher by Age Group - U.S. & Leading OECD
Countries
Age 25-34
Age 45-54
Age 55-64
37.7
39.6
40.9
39.2
40.8
41.4
41.5
33.2
36.2
34.6
34.8
28.5
16.9
16.0
19.4
22.5
24.9
26.9
30.0
26.8
24.0
19.2
22.9
20
32.8
30.3
30
41.9
42.2
38.1
39.5
43.6
37.5
37.4
40
39.3
43.2
46.2
50
Age 35-44
53.0
54.1
50.8
54.8
60
10.6
10
0
Canada
slide
3
Japan
Korea
New
Zealand
Ireland
Belgium
Norway
France
Denmark
U.S.
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
Percent of Population Age 25-64
with an Associate Degree or
Higher, 2006
60
37.2
25.0
30
49.2
40
Benchmark for International Competitiveness (55%)
50
20
10
0
i nia
t Virg
Wes sa s
n
Arka i ana
Louis si ppi
is
Miss da
Nev a
uck y
Kent ss ee
e
Tenn ma
a
Ala b oma
h
Okl a
na
Indi a
s
Texa Caro li na
h
Sout
Ohi o ur i
o
Mis s ing
m
Wyo
o
Idah e xico
M
New a
n
Arizo
ka
Alas ia
g
Geor an
ig
Mic h Carolina
Nor th
da
Flor i yl vani a
s
Penn ar e
w
Del a
e
Mai n States
d
Uni te nsin
o
Wisc on
Oreg
Iowa rni a
o
Cal if Dakota
h
Sout
tana
Mon s
a
Kans
Utah s
i
Il lino
aska
Nebr Is land
e
Rhod ington
h
Was ia
n
Virgi Dako ta
Nor th or k
Y
New ii
a
Haw er sey
J
New nt
o
Ver m
esota
Minn
rado
re
Col o ampshi
H
New and
l
Mar y ct icut
e
s
Connachu sett
Mas s
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
The “Gap” - Difference in Annual Degrees
Currently Produced and Annual Degrees Needed
to Meet Benchmark
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
Massachusetts
-18,389
Colorado
-11,369
-8,768
New York
Utah
-4,028
-3,372
Rhode Island
Iowa
-3,195
Nebraska -2,122
North Dakota -719
290 Vermont
411 South Dakota
950 Minnesota
959 New Hampshire
1,551
Delaware
1,944
Kansas
2,392
Wyoming
3,639
Montana
3,726
Hawaii
4,232
Maine
4,262
Connecticut
6,054
Alaska
6,941
Idaho
6,948
West Virginia
7698
New Mexico
8,811
Missouri
9,465
Oklahoma
10,410
Mississippi
10,788
Illinois
11,943
Maryland
12,073
Wiscon sin
12,826
Oregon
13,675
Pennsylvania
14,090
Virginia
14,144
Washington
14,434
Indian a
14,455
Alabama
14,477
South Carolina
15,343
Arkansas
16,214
Kentucky
21,467
Michigan
23,424
New Jersey
23,777
Louisiana
24,374
Nevada
24,872
Ohio
25,227
Tennessee
28,582
North Carolina
28,846
Georgia
29,190
Arizona
Florida
California
Texas
30,000
94,162
40,000
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS and Population Projections, IPEDS Completions Survey 2004-05
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
slide
5
Accounting for Migration
140,533
131,749
U.S. = 781,301 (a 52.8% increase in the public sector)
CC Graduation Rate
NC – 18%
US – 20%
SREB – 16%
3-yr. graduation rate for full-time
freshmen who first enrolled in a CC
to earn a degree in 2004
Measure only accounts for 23% of
NCCCS entering students
8/11/2009
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
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6
Breaking Down Graduation
Rates
Certificate
Diploma
Assoc. Degree
-
48.43%
22.83%
8.04%
AAS
All Others
-
11.13%
4.80%
2.5 times as many students (11,758)
transfer to a 4-year college from an
NCCCS institution as complete a
college transfer degree (4,588)
8/11/2009
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
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7
Distribution of Awards and Transfer w/o Award Outcomes
(all students)
50%
40%
30%
25%
23%
22%
19%
20%
16%
14%
14%
13%
12%
10%
9%
10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
3%
2%
1%
0%
CT
Award of
FL
NC
OH
TX
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
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Less Than AA Degree
Associate's
Degree
Transfer
VA
Award
Students Who Earned an Award or Transferred OR
Who Are Still Enrolled with 30+ Credits (all students)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
9%
8%
40%
30%
8%
9%
20%
10%
3%
5%
36%
42%
40%
30%
35%
23%
0%
CT
FL
NC Community Colleges
OH
TX
North Carolina
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
VA
Total Earned Award or Transfer Still Enrolled w/o Award with 30+ Credits
Reasons CC Students
Withdraw
1) Transfer to a 4-yr. institution
2) Lack of money
3) Pressure to work full-time
4) Child care issues
5) Lack of academic preparedness
8/11/2009
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
10
Intermediate milestones to track
students
First-Year Milestones
• Persisted fall to spring
• Passed 80% or more of attempted hours
• Earned 24 or more hours
Second-Year Milestones
• Persisted fall to fall
• Completed developmental math by year 2
• Earned 48 or more hours
Third-Year Milestones
• Passed gatekeeper English or higher by year 3
• Passed gatekeeper math or higher by year 3
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
Gates Foundation –
Postsecondary Success
By 2025, double the number of lowincome young adults who, by age 26,
earn a postsecondary credential with
labor market value
8/11/2009
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
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12
Initial areas of attention
Drop-outs
Financial aid opportunities
Developmental Programs
First-year engagement
Programs with labor market value
8/11/2009
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
13
8/11/2009
North Carolina Community Colleges
www.nccommunitycolleges.edu
Fifty-eight Institutions Creating Success Through Hope, Opportunity and Jobs
14