Coastal Land Use Planning
for Doha, Qatar
Ahmad Al-Saygh
GIS APPLICATION ADVISOR:
MÔNICA A. HADDAD
MARCH 23 RD 2015
1
2
City of Doha
3
Integrated Coastal Zone Management
• A holistic approach to regulate human activities toward the coast
• Qatar ICZM: ministerial decree in 2011
• Protecting the coastal environment
• Addressing coastal land use planning
• Defining the coastal zone
• ICZM will be implemented this year
4
Study Area:
Coastal Zone and Coastal Slope Extents
5
Literature Review
•
Coastal Geomorphology:
• (Davidson-Arnott, 2010; McGuire, 2013; Bird, 2008; Beatley, Brower, & Schwab, 2002; Beatley, 2009; Masselink, &
Hughes, 2003; The World Bank: Indicators, n.d.; Tolba, & Saab, 2009; Dasgupta et al., 2009; Al-Madfa, Dahab, & Holail,
1994; Mora et al., 2004)
•
The Arabian Gulf Sea:
• (Hamza, & Munawar, 2009; Preeen, 2003; The World Bank, n.d.; Khan, 2008; Price, 1993; Dawoud, & Al Mulla, 2012;
Lattemann, & Höpner, 2008; El-Habir, & Hutchinson, 2008; Hamza, & Hutchinson, 2008; Al-Janahi, 2008; Pak, 2007; AlAzab, El-Shorbagy, & Al-Ghais, 2005)
•
Coastal Land Use Planning:
• (Portman et al., 2012; Beatley, Brower, & Schwab, 2002; Devoue, & Kleppel, 2006; Masselink, & Hughes, 2003; Sillitoe,
2014; McGuire, 2013; Beatley, 2009; Pace, n.d.)
•
Empirical Studies:
• (Salm, Clark, & Siirila, 2000; Loughland, & Saji, 2008; Chen et al., 2005; Mitra, 2011; Park et al., 2011; Demirksen,
Evrendilek, Berberoglu, & Kilic, 2007)
6
Spatial Questions
• What were the spatial patterns of the coastal geomorphological changes
in Doha between 2003 and 2014?
• Were there areas of risk from coastal hazards in Doha in 2014? (Erosion,
Flooding, and Pollution)
• What are the most vulnerable districts for future coastal hazards?
• What are the coastal land use planning recommendations that should
be included in the ICZM to minimize risk from coastal hazards and provide
sustainable development?
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Spatial Framework
Coastal
erosion
Development
evolution
Doha’s
Urbanization
Land Use
Land Cover
changes
Soil
Erodibility
Flooding
Coastal Land Use
Planning
Development
Coastal
Vulnerability
Index
Regulations
Integrated
Setback
Coastal Zone
Zoning
Management
Etc.
Pollution
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Coastal Vulnerability Index
• The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) was designed to measure the coastal
vulnerability due to flooding
• Nowadays, the CVI is used to measure other coastal hazards
• Kunte et al. (2014), examined the coastal hazards affecting the states in the
coast of Goa using the CVI, using eight factors in the following formula:
𝐶𝑉𝐼 =
𝑎∗𝑏∗𝑐∗𝑑∗𝑒∗𝑓∗𝑔∗ℎ
𝑛
• They divided the results (seven coastal states) using 25th percentiles for low
risk, 25th to 50th percentiles for medium risk, 50th percentiles for high risk
9
Goa CVI factors
Historical rate of
shoreline changes
How Kunte et al. calculated the
factors:
Examining satellite images (1973,
1989, 2006)
Coastal Regional Elevation Calculating slope from DEM (2000)
Doha CVI factors
How Doha’s factors were calculated:
Land Use Land Cover
changes
Based on Shalaby and Tateishi (2007) using
2003 and 2014 satellite images
Coastal Flooding
Based on El-Raey, Fouda, and Nasr (1997)
using 2100 SLR predictions
Coastal Slope
Measuring bathymetries dataset
(1971 - 1984)
Coastal Slope
Coastline elevation - DEM of Doha 2010
Geomorphology
Examining high resolution satellite
image (1999)
Soil erodibility
Based on Yang, Seo, Lim, and Choi (2010) using
2005 soil erodibility map
Population and
tourist density
Calculating data using (2008 - 2009) Population density
Same as Kunte et al. (2010) (only population
data)
Rate of relative Sea Level
Rise
Using data from gauge station
(1969 - 2007)
Rate of relative Sea Level
Rise
Reviewing literature (2014)
Mean tidal range
Reviewing Literature (2012)
Significant wave height
Same as Kunte et al. (2012)
Ecological sensitivity (new)
Identifying coastal ecological areas (2005)
Coastal pollution (new)
Estimating chlorophyll-a concentration by Han
and Jordan (2005) using 2014 result map
Mean tidal range
Significant wave height
Measured using surveyor data
(2011)
Reviewing literature (2009)
Goa States in comparison to Doha’s Districts
Districts
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Goa Risk Scale
Doha Risk Scale
Low (1)
Medium (2)
High (3)
Low (1)
Medium (2)
High (3)
< 0.3 m/yr
0.3 - 0.6 m/yr
> 0.6 m/yr
To open water
-
-
Coastal Regional Elevation
Coastal Flooding
> 55 m
35 - 55 m
< 35 m
>5m
1-5m
<1m
Coastal Slope
> 0.3o
0.1 - 0.3o
< 0.1o
> 80o
60 - 80o
< 60o
Rocky cliffs
Sand dunes and
beaches
Estuaries, active
sand dune, tidal
flats
0.02
0.02 - 0.03
0.04
< 300
< 200
301 - 1,000
201 - 2,500
> 1,000
> 2,500
< 100
100 - 1,000
> 1,000
Rate of relative SLR
-
1.29 mm/yr
-
0 mm/yr
1.6 mm/yr
-
Mean tidal range
-
0.2 - 2.4 m
-
0m
0.45 m
-
Significant wave height
-
0.6 - 2.0 m
-
0.85 m
-
-
Ecological sensitivity
N/A
N/A
N/A
Low sensitivity
(1-2)
Moderate
sensitivity (3)
High sensitivity
(4-5)
Coastal pollution
N/A
N/A
N/A
~ 10.59
~ 10.62
~ 10.65
Historical rate of shoreline
changes
Land Use Land Cover changes
Geomorphology
Soil erodibility
Population and tourist density
Population density
Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes Factor
• Work of Shalaby and Tateishi (2007)
• Examined the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes of the Northwestern
coastal zone of Egypt
• Used Landsat satellite images of 1987 and 2001
• Created image classification
• Performed accuracy assessment
• Produced cross-tabulation of the classified images
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Land Use Land Cover changes in Doha’s
metropolitan area from 2003 to 2014
Low Risk
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LULC changes Factor - Results
• There was no indication of coastal
erosion in Doha between 2003 and 2014
• Major coastal alteration
• Dredging and reclamation for new
LULC Changes
Area in KM2
No Change
483 (70%)
To Open water
86 (12%)
To Urban
78 (11%)
To Barren Soil
38 (6%)
To Vegetation
8 (1%)
urban projects along the coastline
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Coastal Flooding Factor
• Work of El-Raey, Fouda, and Nasr (1997)
• Integrated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and classified images of the
Rosetta area in Egypt
• Separated contour lines using 0.1 meter elevation
• Created 12 Sea Level Rise (SLR) scenarios ranging between 0.1 to 2.5
meter of elevation
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Coastal Flooding Factor - Process
• Contour DEM was overlayed on top of the classified image
• Dasgupta et al. (2009) 2100 SLR predictions were used to extract the areas prone to
flooding: 1 meter, 3 meter, 5 meter
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1 meter Sea Level Rise scenario
For Doha (2100)
High Risk
18
3 meter Sea Level Rise scenario
For Doha (2100)
Medium Risk
19
5 meter Sea Level Rise scenario
For Doha (2100)
Low Risk
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Coastal Flooding factor - Results
• North of Doha is highly vulnerable to 1
meter SLR
• Pearl-Qatar Island is 2.6 meter from
sea level and is prone to 3 meter SLR
Areas in KM2
1 meter SLR
3 meter SLR
5 meter SLR
Open Water Gain
5.36
29.24
74.77
Urban Loss
0.46 (8.58%)
6.24 (21.34%) 20.05 (26.82%)
Barren Soil Loss
2.83 (52.79%) 19.23 (65.76%) 49.69 (66.46%)
Vegetation Loss
0.06 (1.04%)
0.57 (1.94%)
1.45 (1.94%)
• Many developed areas are vulnerable
to 3 and 5 meter SLR
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Coastal Slope Factor
• Contour lines were used to measure the
slope from the coastline
• Majority of the coastline in Doha has a
Low Risk
< 80o
slope over 80 degrees
High Risk
> 60o
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Coastal
Slope
Factor
Results
Coastal Slope Factor (2010)
Legend
Coastal slope and risk
High Risk
Medium Risk
Low Risk
23
Soil
Erodibility
Factor
Results
Soil Erodibility Factor in
Doha’s metropolitan area (2005)
Soil erodibility and risk
Low Risk
Medium Risk
High Risk
24
Population
Density
Factor
Results
Population density and risk
< 100 Low Risk
100 – 1,000 Medium Risk
> 1,000 High Risk
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Other Factors
• Rate of relative SLR is 1.6 mm/yr (Alothman, Bos, Fernandes, & Aythan, 2014)
• Current global rate of relative SLR is 2.9 mm/yr (Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry /
Sea Level Rise, n.d.); therefore, the rate of relative SLR of Doha is a medium risk
• Mean tidal range is 0.45 m (Pous, Carton, & Lazure, 2012)
• Qatar has semi-diurnal tidal cycle, an area that experiences two tidal highs and lows
everyday (NOAA's National Ocean Service: Tide cycle variations, n.d.). Tidal
fluctuations occurs more often; therefore, mean tidal range of Doha is a medium risk
• Significant wave height is 0.85 m (Pous, Carton, & Lazure, 2012)
• Wave height in the Arabian Gulf Sea reaches 3 m; therefore, the wave height of
Doha is a low risk
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Ecological Sensitivity Factor
• Coastal ecological areas near Doha as defined
by the former environmental department in
2005
• Areas include wetlands, coral reefs, mangroves,
and seagrass beds
• All inland districts received a low risk
• Coastal districts received variable risks based
on their proximity to the ecological areas
27
Coastal Pollution Factor
• Work of Han and Jordan (2005)
• Developed a regression model to estimate chlorophyll-a concentration
in Pensacola Bay in the Gulf of Mexico for the year 2002
• They collected 16 water samples and measured the chlorophyll-a
concentration (dependent variables)
• Top of the Atmosphere (ToA) values were collected from the satellite
images by referring to the sampling locations (independent variables)
28
Coastal Pollution Factor - Process
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
• Chlorophyll-a concentration for
• Top of the Atmosphere (ToA) of the
2002 were collected from the NASA’s
Landsat (2002) and OLI (2014)
Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view
satellite images
Sensor (SeaWiFS)
• Both dependent and independent variables were
transformed logarithmically and used in the following
formula:
𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝐶ℎ𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑜𝑝ℎ𝑦𝑙𝑙 − 𝑎 = 𝑦 + 𝑎 ∗
log ETM+1
log 𝐸𝑇𝑀+3
+𝑏+𝑐
29
30
Coastal Pollution - Results
• High chlorophyll-a concentration along the
coastline
• Seawater has a low concentration
• Increasing concentration in the future
In mg/m3
2002
2014
2022
2034
Change
High
10.72
10.65
12.13
13.65
1.5
Low
9.09
10.59
10.50
10.39
-0.2
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LULC (2003-2014)
1.6 mm/yr
Rate of Relative
SLR (2014)
Coastal Flooding (2100)
0.45 m
Mean Tidal
Range (2012)
Coastal Slope (2010)
Soil Erodibility (2005)
Pop. Density (2010)
0.85 m
Significant Wave
Height (2012)
Eco. Sensitivity (2005) Coastal Pollution (2014)
32
Coastal Vulnerability Index of Doha
• CVI results ranged from 0.45 to
3.80
• Mean is 1.09
• 36 districts; mostly intermediate
and peripheral received 0.77
Frequency
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.45
0.54
0.63
0.77
1.09
1.26
1.54
1.89
2.19
2.52
2.68
3.28
3.80
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District
number
LULC
Coastal
Changes
Flooding
(constant)
Coastal
Slope
Soil
Population
Erodibility
Density
Relative
SLR
Significant
Mean tidal
Ecological Coastal
wave height
range
Sensitivity Pollution
(constant)
CVI
1
1
3
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
3
2.68
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
3
1.10
7
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
3
1.90
11
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1.10
12
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
1
1.90
18
1
2
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
3
1.54
19
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
1.26
28
1
2
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
1
2.68
29
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2.20
49
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
3
1
2.68
60
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
1.26
61
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2.53
66
1
2
1
1
3
2
2
1
3
2
3.80
69
1
3
1
1
1
2
2
1
3
3
3.30
Coastal
Vulnerability
Index – Results
Low Risk
Medium Risk
High Risk
All of 57 districts of Doha were
divided using 25th percentile for
low vulnerability, 25th to 50th
percentiles for medium
vulnerability, and 50th
percentile for high vulnerability.
35
Development Evolution
• Both satellite images for Doha and the
metropolitan area were classified into four
classes:
• Open water
• Urban
• Barren soil
• Vegetation
• Loss in water, soil, and vegetation classes
Area in KM2
2003
2014
Difference
(2003-2014)
Open Water 197.18 (31.75%) 181.99 (29%) (15.19) (2.43%)
Urban
58.05 (9.35%) 115.34 (19%) 57.29 (9.24%)
Barren Soil 354.72 (57.12%) 313.23 (50%) (41.49) (6.65%)
Vegetation
11.04 (1.78%)
10.01 (2%)
(1.03) (0.16%)
• Planning based on case-by-case approach
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Overall accuracy: 86.9%
Classified Image 2003
Classified Image 2014
Overall accuracy: 88.8%
37
Coastal Erosion
• Yang, Seo, Lim, and Choi (2010): estimated the soil loss of Haeudae Beach in
South Korea
• They used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) on their study
area to calculate the annual estimated soil loss from 1947 to 2005
• Used estimated rainfall from 1973 to 1996, soil erodibility, crop
management practice in South Korea, erosion control practice, slope and
length of slope
𝐴 =𝑅∗𝐾∗ 𝐿∗𝑆 ∗𝐶∗𝑃
• RUSLE was measured for Doha using the rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility,
crop management factor, and length of slope and slope factors
38
Coastal Erosion - Process
Rainfall erosivity (R-factor), Length of Slope and Slope (L & S factors)
• Rainfall erosivity equation: 𝑅 = 𝐵 ∗ 𝑃
• B = 1.3 and P = 5.2
• R = 6.71667 (mega joule in a millimeter per hectare in an hour in
a year)
• Length of slope and slope factors equation:
𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ∗ 𝐶𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 0.4 sin 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 1.3
𝐿∗𝑆 =(
) ∗(
)
22.13
0.0896
• There is no known strip contouring in Doha
Qatar average rainfall data
from 1990-2009
Month
Rainfall mm
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total
16.8
11.8
9.4
8.5
1.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.2
6.9
6.4
62
39
Coastal
Erosion
Process
Soil Erodibility (K-factor) and Crop Management (C-factor)
Soil erodibility and type
Erodibility
40
Coastal
Erosion
Results
Soil Loss in Doha
(Per 10 tons per acre per year)
41
Coastal Erosion Results
•
Doha coastal slope is not facing a
major soil erosion
• Most undeveloped areas are
facing with 0 – 0.2 soil loss
(per 10 tons per acre per year)
• Future rainfall erosivity may
increase the soil loss rate in Doha
(Al Mamoon et al., 2014)
Soil Loss Rate
(10 tons per acre per year)
Area in KM2
0*
2.2
0 - 0.2
9.3
0.2 - 0.4
0.1
0.4 - 0.6
0.01
42
Answering the Questions
• What were the spatial patterns of the coastal geomorphological changes in Doha
between 2003 and 2014? Urbanization, coastal reclamation, and coastal alteration
• Were there areas of risk from coastal hazards in Doha in 2014? Coastal flooding
and potential coastal pollution
• What are the most vulnerable districts for future coastal hazards? Districts North
and South of Doha
• What are the coastal land use planning recommendations that should be
included in the ICZM to minimize risk from coastal hazards and provide sustainable
development?
43
Coastal Land Use Planning
BUILDING ELEVATION
•
Apply to Northern part of Doha
• Propose higher elevation buildings
• Implement advanced warning system
(Masselink, and Hughes, 2003).
“NO DEVELOPMENT BUFFER”
• Invest in coastal nourishment
(McGuire, 2013)
• Apply no development or setback
regulation from the coastline
44
Coastal Land Use Planning Cont'd
COASTAL CONSERVATION ZONES
GREEN BUILDING CODES
• Advocate for Qatar Green Building
Council recommendations (similar to
• Limit development and population density
LEED)
• Hybrid option to shield developments
• Implement Green Building Codes in
from flooding (McGuire, 2013)
Qatar’s current building codes
•
Apply to undeveloped areas
• Limit emission and promote
sustainability (Pizarro, Blakely, and Dee,
2006)
45
Planning Process Implementation
• Latest master urban plan for Doha was implemented in 1997
• Since then, planning process is based on case-by-case decision making
(Salama, & Wiedmann, 2013)
• Coastal Land Use Planning recommendations will be part of Qatar ICZM
• The ICZM needs to be approved by the Cabinet of Qatar
• The Central Municipal Council is the only form of public participation
with limited influence on the planning process (Roseman-Stollman, 2009)
46
Final Remarks
The recommendations will promote sustainable coastal development in
Doha
Protect the coastal community and coastal environment
Limitations:
◦ Acquiring data and creating future scenarios
Future work
◦ Coastal land use planning for Qatar
◦ Sustainable development through coastal zone management
47
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