Biological Conservation 72 (1995) 371-379 Elsevier Science Limited Printed in Great Britain 0006-3207/95/$09.50+ .00 ELSEVIER 0006-3207(94)00049-2 CHANGES IN THE LANDSCAPE STRUCTURE OF A SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING RIPARIAN ZONE FOLLOWING SHIFTS IN STREAM DYNAMICS James R. Miller* Departmentof Fishery and Wildlife Biology, ColoradoState University,Fort Collins, Colorado80523, USA Terri T. Schulzt us Forest Service,Rocky Mountain Forest and RangeExperimentStation, Fort Collins, Colorado80526, USA N. Thompson Hobbs Mammals ResearchSection, ColoradoDivision of Wildlife, Fort Collins, Colorado,80526, USA Kenneth R. Wilson Departmentof Fishery and Wildlife Biology, ColoradoState University,Fort Collins, Colorado80523, USA Donald L. Schrupp Habitat Section,Colorado Division of Wildlife, Denver,Colorado80216-1000,USA & William L. Baker Departmentof Geography,Universityof Wyoming,Laramie, Wyoming82071, USA (Received23 September1993;revisedversion received24 March 1994;accepted18 Apri11994) Abstract Throughout westernNorth America,flood regimeshave been altered as a result of large-scalewater impoundments and diversions,yet the effects on riparian landscape structure have not been quantified. Using aerial photographs and a GIS, we examined changesin the Rawhide Wildlife Management Area in southeastern Wyoming between 1937 and 1990 after shifts in the frequency and intensity of flooding of the North Platte River. The river declinedin wettedarea by 75% between 1937 and 1990. Also, the areal proportion occupiedby cottonwood (Populus spp.) stands with <30% canopy closureincreasedwhile standswith> 70% canopyclosure decreasedduring this period.. indicating a shift from young, densestands to older, more open stands. Some traditional measuresof landscapestructure (i.e. richness, diversity, dominance, average patch perimeter length, averagepatch shape), however,appearedinsensitiveto these changes.Finally, the proportion of the landscape that changedland typesdeclinedwith increasingdistance from the river. We expectfurther modificationof the land* Pleasedirect all correspondence to this author. Presentaddress: Dept. of Biology, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado 80523,USA. tpresent address:The Nature Conservancy,Boulder, Colorado 80302. USA. scapestructure, associatedwith continued declinesin cottonwood recruitment and increases in cottonwood mortality. Keywords: North Platte River, flood regime, Wyoming, Populus spp., landscape structure. INTRODUCTION Environmental disturbance regulates many ecological processes.Large-scale disturbances such as fires and floods may cause significant mortality in populations, exerting strong control on the structure and function of biotic communities (see reviews by White, 1979; Denslow, 1985; Caswell & Cohen, 1991). Virtually by definition, riparian zones are subjectedto periodic disturbance by flooding. In many areas, particularly arid ones, riparian systemsare strongly pulsed by flooding events as a result of annual cycles in precipitation and temperature (Ewel, 1979; Graf, 1988; Baker, 1990). Much of the spatial pattern and many of the functional properties of riparian systemscan be attributed to this pulsed behavior. However, despite the apparent significanceof flooding and the recognition of riparian zones as key landscape features and centers of biological diversity (Naiman et al., 1993), the consequencesof floods for theseareasare not nearly as well understood as are the consequencesof disturbances in other J. R. Miller et al. systems, such as fire in forests (Kimmerer & Allen, 1982;Sousa, 1984;Mallik & Wein, 1986). While riparian zones at lower elevations in western North America comprise lessthan I % of the total land area, up to 80% of terrestrial vertebrate speciesare dependent upon them for at least part of their life cycles (Chaney et al., 1990). These riparian landscapesoften consist of irregular patchesof distinct vegetation types or age classesarrayed in a mosaic along a watercourse and the structure of this mosaic is important to wildlife species living in these landscapes(e.g. Gutzwiller & Anderson, 1987).This type of landscapestructure has been shown to result from periodic large floods that destroy existing vegetation and create open patches (Baker, 1990).These open patchesare particularly important as seed beds for cottonwoods (Populus spp.) which typically do not regenerateinside mature forests (Wilson, 1970;Bradley& Smith, 1986;Baker, 1988;Bums & Honkala, 1990). Cottonwoods are an important component of lowelevation riparian landscapesin westernNorth America and are often the most common tree found there. In the Platte River basin, cottonwoods occurred historically in widely scatteredpatchesalong the predominantly open landscapesadjoining the river (Knopf & Scott, 1990). Two properties limited the spatial distribution of these trees. In addition to requiring open patches of alluvial substrates for regeneration, such as those created by floods, cottonwoods require water at or near the rooting zone during the growing season,favoring establishment on the river flood plain. However,flooding in theseother- ~~~ - - -~ - - " ~.~;,North Platte "" Platte Ri"', NEBRASKA '\ wise suitable areas periodically causeshigh mortality, and this mortality opposeswidespreadestablishmentof cottonwoodstands.Hence,the distribution of cottonwood representsa compromise between its requirementsfor high levelsof soil moisture and sunlight, and its vulnerability to floods (Currier, 1982;Knopf & Scott, 1990). Throughout western North America, natural flood regimeshavebeenalteredas a result of hydrologic development for agricultural, municipal, and industrial use (Williams & Wolman, 1984;Knopf & Scott, 1990),with dramatic consequences for the fauna and flora of riparian zones(Bradley& Smith, 1986;Johnson, 1989;Knopf & Scott, 1990).Thesealterations have contributed to a decline and loss of cottonwood forests in many areas (Rood & Mahoney, 1990), but at least temporary increasesin these forests in other areas (Williams, 1978; Snyder & Miller, 1992). Knopf and Scott (1990) proposedthat changesin flood regimeswill alter the spatial distribution, abundance,and age structure of riparian woody vegetationin the Platte River headwaters. Changesin disturbanceregimesmay result in changes in the patch structure of the landscape.For example,a number of measuresof landscapestructure (e.g. richness, shape, and Shannon diversity) changed over a period of decadesas fires were suppressedin a midwestern U.S. landscape (Baker, 1992, 1993). Little is known, however, about the effects of modified flood regimes on riparian landscapestructure. Here, we examine the influence that altered flood regimesexert on the patch composition of a riparian landscape. We compare historic patterns with those seen after major - ---- ---- --- " \ \ \ \ \ Fig. 1. The Rawhide Wildlife ManagementArea (RWMA) in relation to the North Platte River and its tributaries in southeastern Wyoming. Numbers refer to major storage reservoirs(seeTable I). Flood regimes and landscape structure Table 1. Major storage reservoirson the North Platte River upstreamfrom Torrington, Wyo (from Williams 1978) Reservoir I Pathfinder 2 Guernsey 3 Alcova 4Seminoe 5 Glendo Completion date Maximum storage capacity (m3) April 1909 1.26 X 109 July 1927 5.52 X 107 February 1938 2.35 X 108 April 1939 1.25 X 109 October 1957 9.84 X 108 Nearest town Alcova, Wyo Guernsey,Wyo Alcova, Wyo Leo, Wyo Glendo, Wyo. Fig. 2. Annual peak streamflow between 1916 and 1992 for the North Platte River below Whalen Diversion, about 30 km upstream from the study area. shifts in the frequency and intensity of flooding of the North Platte River in southeasternWyoming. STUDY AREA We examined the Rawhide Wildlife Management Area (RWMA), a cottonwood-dominated riparian landscape along the North Platte River. The RWMA is comprised of approximately 313 ha located 10 km northwest of Torrington, Wyoming (Fig. 1). The North Platte River is a major tributary of the Platte River. Formed primarily by snow melt in the Rawah and Medicine Bow Mountains, the North Platte flows 1050km north then east, draining an area of approximately 80,000km2 before it joins the South Platte River on the high plains of Nebraska (Fig. 1) (Kirchner & Karlinger, 1983). Extensive development of dams and reservoir storage occurred along the North Platte River during the early and mid-1900s(Table 1, Fig. 1). By 1980,these mainstem impoundments resulted in an order of magnitude increasein water diverted from the river, concurrent with an 80% reduction in peak flows and an 85% reduction iT}mean annual flows relative to pre-1900conditions (Williams, 1978;Fig. 2). METHODS Classification and mapping We examined changes in the landscape structure of the R WMA based on photo-interpretation of 1: 20,000 373 scaleblack and white aerial photographs taken in June 1937 and June 1990. The photos were scanned using the Map and Image ProcessingSystem (MIPS) into gray-scaleimage data sets. These data sets were then transferred to the GRASS geographic information system (USA-CERL, 1991) and registered to Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection coordinates. The imageswere rectified to fit standard US Geological Survey 1: 24,000 scale topographic maps and subsequently photo-interpreted.Our analysisfocusedon seven land types that were readily discernablefor both setsof photos and representedthe most important landscape elements for purposes of this study. The land types identified were river (here defined as wetted channel), sandbar, herbaceous/bareground, willow (Salix spp.), and cottonwood stands in three canopy-closureclasses: <30%, 30-70%, and >70%. Patcheswere then digitized and labelled for each year and the resulting maps were converted to a raster format using a 5 m X 5 m pixel resolution. The 1990 classification was ground-truthed during March 1992.Field observationswere made over the entire area on features influencing the interpreted categories,with the appropriate changesmade to the original classificationmap. Spatial analysis Transition analysis We examined transitions among land types between 1937and 1990in two ways. First, we graphed the proportion of the total area of each land type in each year. Second,we overlaid the 1937 and 1990 maps, creating a third map. Pixel valuesin this new map representthe type of change that occurred for each pixel between 1937and 1990.Shifts betweenland types were quantified from the resultant coincidencetable in GRASS. Analysis of landscapestructure We computed several measuresof landscapestructure in order to quantify changes that occurred between 1937and 1990.All measureswere computed using the Raster Landscape Ecological (r.le) Spatial Analysis Package(Baker & Cai, 1992),designedfor the analysis of landscape structure within GRASS. For each of the two maps, we measured patch diversity in four ways: (1) Richness: the number of different land types present. (2) Shannon index (H '): combines richness and evennessusing the formula: m H' = L pi*ln(pi)' i=1 wherePi is the fraction of the land area occupied by land type i and m is the number of land types present. Larger values of H' indicate a more diverselandscape(Turner & Ruscher, 1988). (3) Dominance: emphasizesthe deviation from evennessusing the formula: D = In(n)- H'. J. R. Miller et at. 374 Fig. 3. The location of the North Platte River in 1937and 1990within the boundariesof the RWMA where n is the number of land types present. Larger values of D indicate a landscape dominated by one or a few land types while smaller values of D indicate a landscape in which land types are found in approximately equal proportions (O'Neill et al., 1988). (4) Reciprocal Simpson's index (liS): measuresthe probability of encountering two pixels of the land type when taking a random sample of two pixels, using the formula: s m L pi where the variables are the same as those in the Shannon index, except that here larger values of S indicate a decreasein landscapediversity. In addition, we totalled the number of patches by land type for each map. Finally, we computed some measuresboth for the entire map and by land type: (1) total patch perimeter; (2) mean patch perimeter; (3) mean patch size; and (4) mean patch shape using a corrected perimeter/areaindex (Baker & Cai, 1992). The shape index can range from 1 (i.e. a circle) to infinity, with higher values indicating shapeswhich are increasinglyirregular (Baker & Cai, 1992). While we do compareour observationswith the effects of dams on downstream riparian zones described in other studies, we do not use inferential statistics to extend our observationsbeyond the RWMA. Doing so would require that we randomly samplefrom the population of landscapes along, for instance, the North Platte River. However, becausewe observedthe entire 'population of pixels' within the landscapewe studied, differencesbetween 1937and 1990are establishedwithout any sampling error. Whether such differencesare biologically significant dependson making referenceto a particular processof interest (Hurlbert 1984; Kolasa & Rollo 1991). Buffer analysis We determinedthe magnitude of land type changeas a function of distance from the river. Eight 100 m-wide buffer zoneswere created, radiating out from the 1937 river channel(zone 1 = the river itself, zone 2 = 1-100 m from the river, zone 3 = 101-200m from the river, etc.). For this analysis, we included the area outside the RWMA boundaries in order to represent more accurately the changewithin eachzone.Theseadditional lands were still relatively undeveloped,basedon inspection of the 1990aerial photographs and the 1992field survey. RESULTS Fig. 4. The proportion of the RWMA in each land type in 1937and 1990. Transitions The relative proportions of area of the seven land types changed between 1937 and 1990. The North Platte River shifted, lost a major meander (Fig. 3), and declined in wetted area by 75% (Fig. 4). The area of cottonwood patches increased by approximately 16%, but the proportion of land area in the cottonwood canopy-closure classes was more evenly distributed among classes in 1937 when compared with 1990 (Fig. 4). By 1990, the proportion of land area covered by cottonwood stands with <30% cottonwood canODV closure had nearlv Flood regimes and landscape structure 37~ Table 2. For eachland type in 1937,the percentageof area that has changedto anotherland type in 1990 (The last row and column representthe total number of hectaresin each land type in 1990and 1937,respectively.) 1937 1990 <300/0 30-70% >70% cottonwoods cottonwoods cottonwoods <300/0cottonwoods 30-70% cottonwoods >700/0cottonwoods Willows Sandbar Herabaceous/bareground River 1990(ha) 58 52 22 0 29 10 29 50 8 10 35 11 23 2 0 14 0 10 108 79 19 doubled, while the proportion of land area with >700/0 cottonwood canopy closure declined by nearly 50% during this period (Fig. 4). The most dramatic land type shift evident in our overlay analysis involved the river. Only 13% of the area that was river in 1937remainedriver in 1990(Fig. 3 and Table 2) and, of the portion that changed,approximately 30% becamesandbar and 44% becamecottonwood (Table 2). The total loss in river area was 54 ha while the total gain was only 8 ha (Table 2). Of the area that was sandbar in 1937,more than 77% became cottonwood by 1990 (Table 2). Of the 1990 land area with 30-70% and> 70% cottonwood canopy closure, approximately 43% was either river and/or sandbar in 1937(Table 2). Landscapestructure Richnessdid not changefrom 1937to 1990.The Shannon index (2.86 versus 2.93), dominance (1.66 versus 1.65), and the reciprocal Simpson index (1.21 for both) were also similar for the 1937and 1990.landscapes. The number of patches in each land type did not change drastically between 1937 and 1990 (Table 3). Willows Sandbars Herbaceous! River bare ground I 2 7 99 3 2 5 6 7 8 0 8 11 30 13 8 7 0 6 61 9 4 1 4 0 5 4 13 37 43 16 1937 (ha) 60 ~1 34 2 44 30 62 The largest relative increasein the number of patches occurred for the willow type, while the <30% cottonwood canopy closure type showed the largest decrease in the number of patches.While the number of patches for the <30% cottonwood canopy-closure decreased, the mean patch size increaseddramatically as did the variability (Table 3). The willow and bare ground! herbaceous mean patch sizes also increased slightly from 1937to 1990. The total length of all perimeters and the overall mean perimeter length for all land types decreased slightly from 1937 to 1990:94,065 m to 90,650 m and 1270m to 1209m, respectively.The largest changesin mean patch perimeter occurred for the <30% cottonwood canopy closure class, which increased by 82%, the> 70% cottonwood canopy closure class, which decreasedby 63%, and the willow class, which increased by 39% (Table 3). The variability in mean perimeter length increased for all land types except the >70% cottonwood canopy closure class. The mean shapeof all patches,basedupon the mean corrected perimeter/areaindex, was not very different for the 1937and 1990maps: 1.78and 1.87,respectively. Table 3. Patch characteristicsfor 1937and 1990with standarddeviationsin parentheses <30"/0 Cottonwood 30-700/0 Cottonwood >700/. Cottonwood Willow Sandbar Herbaceous! bare ground 24 25 8 10 1.83 (1.71) 1.48 (1.26) 3.8 (1.8) 4.32 (3.88) 713 (320) 743 (420) 1641 (970) 1539 (1150) 1.66 (0.26) 1.83 (0.48) 2.26 (0.85) 2.13 (0.73) 376 J. R. Miller et al .. ., < "0 c 0 E 80 Q: - 0 1-100 101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 501-600 601-700 Distance from 1937 river (m) Fig. 5. The proportion of area that has changed land types between1937and 1990as a function of distancefrom the river. When comparisons were made by land type, there was little difference between years for the mean patch shapes(Table 3). Buffer analysis The proportion of the landscape that changed land type between 1937 and 1990 declined with increasing distance from the 1937 river channel up to 400 m (Fig. 5). Approximately 65% of the area within 1-100 m of the river changed land type between 1937 and 1990: nearly twice the proportion of area that changed within 301-400 m (Fig. 5). At distances exceeding 400 m, once again the magnitude of change increased as a side channel was crossed. DISCUSSION Transitions The geomorphology of the Platte River throughout its basin has changed considerably over the past century. Other studies have shown that the current channel width is much less than it was in the mid-19th century below major reservoirsor diversion dams on the North Platte (Williams, 1978; McDonald & Sidle, 1992), the Platte (Williams, 1978; Eschner et al., 1983),and portions of the South Platte (Nadler & Schumm, 1981; McDonald & Sidle, 1992).Likewise, we found a decline in the surfacearea of the river in the RWMA, although the geomorphology of this reach of the North Platte has not been specifically studied. Other changes in channel morphology, including a decreasein braiding and an increase in sinuosity, also have been reported for the North Platte (Williams, 1978). In contrast, the river has decreasedin sinuosity in the RWMA, due primarily to the loss of a major meander. Accompanying reductions in river size elsewherein the basin, vegetation invaded the former channel and became established on the Platte, North Platte, and South Platte floodplains (Williams, 1978; Eschner et al., 1983), with perhaps most of the expansion occurring during the 1930s(Crouch, 1979a; Eschner et al., 1983). However, in the 1950s. cottonwood mortality appears to have increased on portions of the South Platte in northeastern Colorado (Crouch, 1979b). Furthermore, a more extensive study of the South Platte River revealed that the area of bottomland cottonwood forests declined slightly between 1941 and 1979 from 33% to 30% (Snyder & Miller, 1991). Greater depletion of flows on the Arkansas River in eastern Colo~ado is thought to be responsible for even greater declines in cottonwood area on this river between 1940 and 1980 relative to the South Platte (Snyder & Miller, 1991). Livestock grazing, the invasion of fire-prone exotic plants, and agricultural expansion may also be contributing to recent declines in cottonwood area in the Platte River system (Crouch, 1979b; Snyder & Miller, 1991). The evidence thus suggests that upstream reservoir storage, water diversion, and other human land uses lead to downstream changes in riparian landscapes. While river impoundments may cause dramatic changes downstream, different components of the riparian system may respond at different rates (Petts, 1987). Although there have been dramatic reductions in the size and extent of the river in the R WMA between 1937 and 1990, the total area of cottonwoods has increased from 175 to 205 ha. Several aspects of water development may explain the rates of morphological and vegetational change on the R WMA and other parts of the Platte basin. Irrigation return-flow and transmountain diversions have increased mean low flows, resulting in a more continuous band of vegetation along the channel edges (Nadler & Schumm, 1981; Eschner et al., 1983). Enhanced low flows coupled with a decline in peak flows, a result of impoundment construction and the drought years of the 1930s, created favorable conditions for cottonwood establishment in the narrowed riverbed (Williams, 1978; Nadler & Schumm, 1981; Currier, 1982; Eschner et al., 1983). Subsequent floods could not reverse this trend due to the vegetation expansion and bank stabilization. Similarly, McDonald and Sidle (1992) reported that overall increases in riparian forests along the North Platte and South Platte in Nebraska were closely related to reductions in the active channel. Baker (1992) proposed that the rate of response to disturbance control, such as fire suppression or modification of flood regimes, may depend upon the state of the landscape at the time control is initiated. The RWMA contained abundant areas of dense, young cottonwood stands as late as 1937, probably because large flows continued on the North Platte through most of the 1920s (Fig. 2) and also due to encroachment of cottonwoods into the formerly active channel during the 1930s. Further colonization of the narrowed channel probably followed the filling of Alcova, Seminoe, and Glendo reservoirs (Table 1). This would account for the number of patches in the 30-70% and >70% cottonwood canopy closure classes remaining constant. Although both of these cottonwood types increased substantially in the former channel, they each declined somewhat in the total proportion of the R WMA they occupy. Concurrent with a reduction in the areal Flood regimes and landscape structure proportion of mid- and high-density patches of younger trees, there has been a sharp increasein the proportion of the cottonwood area occupied by lower density patchesof older trees since 1937.As this trend continues, a loss of cottonwoods can be expected, perhaps within a short time period, as a substantial fraction of the landscapeis now occupied by theseold stands. Surprisingly, substantial peak flows in 1955, 1971, 1973, and 1983 on the North Platte (Fig. 2) do not appear to have reversedthe trend toward the predominance of older cottonwood stands on the landscape. There is nothing obvious in the hydrographs for these years that distinguishesthem from hydrographs for the years between 1917 and 1929 that also had large annual runoffs. However, severalfactors might explain the lack of cottonwood recruitment following the 1970s and 1980sfloods. First, the sediment budget has been altered as a result of sediment trapping behind the upstream dams. As a result, channel responseto large flows may be the incision of a single channel rather than meandering or braiding (Williams & Wolman, 1984).This responsewould limit the deposition of new alluvial substrates suitable for cottonwood establishment and growth. Although channel incision was not measured specifically on the RWMA, much of the braided characterof the North Platte evident in the 1937 photos is indeed absentin the 1990photos. Second,the RWMA experienced 20 years of reduced peak flows before the first flood year (1955) occurred and also between 1955 and the next flood year (1971). Cottonwood standswere thus generally older, with larger trees that are less likely to be drowned or uprooted by floods. It may simply take larger floods to produce open patches when older stands predominate. Finally, the floods of the 1917-1929 period were much more frequent (9 years with> 200 m3 per second peak streamflow)comparedwith the 1971-1983period (3 years with> 200 m3 per secondpeak streamflow). It may be that frequent or ongoing high flows can produce more patchessuitable for cottonwood recruitment. Resolution of this question will require dating of patch origins and reconstruction of the effects of individual floods (e.g. Baker, 1990). Landscape structure The results of the transition analysis and a visual inspection of the aerial photographs indicate that the RWMA has undergone some dramatic changes between 1937 and 1990. Yet, these changes are not apparent in the diversity indices of richness or evenness. The Shannon index showed the greatest change - a very modest increase of 0.07, indicating a slightly more diverse landscape. Dominance actually decreased by 0.01, indicating a slight decrease in diversity. Other investigators have found these diversity measures useful in examining changes in landscape structure in other areas. For instance, Mills (1991) found that the diversity of riparian communities, based on the Shannon index, generally increased downstream of Jackson Lake 377 Dam in western Wyoming between 1945 and 1989, attributable primarily to increasedchannel stability and the expansionof forest communities. Moreover, Baker (1992) found that the suppressionof fires in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of Minnesota increased the Shannon index of landscapediversity from 2.9 to 3.5. One explanation for the static nature of the diversity indices when applied to the RWMA may be that apy increasein dominance by a given land type is offset by a decreasein the dominanceof another land type. The increase in dominance for the <30% cottonwood canopy closure class is apparently not sufficient to causea meaningful changein the indices. In the RWMA, there was little overall change in the number of patches, mean patch size, mean patch perimeter length, or mean patch shape.The only land types that changeddramatically in mean patch perimeter length are {he> 70% cottonwood canopy closure class, which decreasedbecause the number of patches remained the samewhile the proportion of area that they occupied decreased,and the <30% cottonwood canopy closure class. The latter land type showed the greatest increasein both mean patch perimeter and mean patch size, and the variability associatedwith these metrics. For this land type, the large increasein thesemeasures can be explained by a decrease in the number of patchescoupled with a large increasein the proportion of area occupied. Someof thesepatcheshave obviously grown in size, probably due to a merging of higher density cottonwood patchesas they age and tree density decreases. Buffer analysis The results of the buffer analysisemphasizethe importance of the river as an agent of change in the landscape.A large portion of the area adjacent to the river changed land type between 1937 and 1990. However, this effect diminished with increasingdistance from the river, up to 400 m. The increasein the proportion of area changedbeyond 400 m is primarily due to a sidechannel of the North Platte which flows parallel to the main channel into Rawhide Creek. This tributary is just outside the RWMA boundary and lies in the 501-600 m zone. The vegetation along this channel changed from fairly densepatchesof. cottonwood and willow in 1937 to smaller, more isolated patches in 1990.Thus, we seean influencein the landscapesimilar to that of the main channel of the North Platte, although on a somewhatsmaller scale. CONCLUSIONS Coincident with alterations in flow regimes toward reducedpeak annual flows and enhancedlow flows, the landscape structure in the RWMA has changed substantially. Traditional quantitative measuresof landscapestructure, however, were insensitive to the types of changesobserved in this study. Observed shifts in cottonwood canopy-closureclassesare consistent with the idea that reducedflooding and consequentreduced 378 J. R. Miller et al mortality have allowed existing stands to age while the rate of recruitment of new stands has diminished. This latter trend is somewhat obscured by the colonization of the former river channel by cottonwood. However, in the absenceof further decreasesin river width or a modification of flow regimes to mimic historical flood patterns, we expect this phaseof cottonwood establishment in the former channel to be short-lived. Instead, we expect the landscapeto be increasingly dominated by older, more open cottonwood stands concurrent with further declines in recruitment and heightened mortality. The future distribution of cottonwoods in the RWMA may eventually be even more scattered than that of the pre-developmentlandscape. Lowland riparian zones are at once the rarest and the most important landscape feature for the maintenanceof biological diversity in westernNorth America. In addition to controlling key ecological processes (Naiman et al., 1993),riparian zones support a disproportionately large number of specieswhen one considers the tiny relative area that thesesystemsoccupy. Furthermore, riparian zoneshave been subjectedto substantial modification by humans over the last 100 years. Subsequent woodland expansioncreatedcontinuous corridors, facilitating dispersal and ultimately permitting faunal mixing of previously isolated speciesbetween the eastern and western U.S. (Knopf, 1986; Knopf & Scott, 1991).We are now entering a new phase in which projected declinesin cottonwoods, already evident in some areas, may lead to the loss of other speciesin riparian zones, such as cavity-nesting birds (Knopf & Scott, 1991).Understanding the ways in which human activities affect riparian zones, over both the short and long term, is fundamental to effective managementfor biological diversity in westernNorth America. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to thank Brad Compton, Kathleen Doyle, Jon Hak, Jim Honaker, Jen-Chu Lin, Asres Tsehay, Tamara Wambeam, and Cathy Wilson for assistancein ground-truthing the classification of patch types and for commentson the research.Commentsby P. J. Currier, L. Joyce, M. L. Scott, R. L. Beschterand R. A. 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