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ROS Users Guide
Chapter 30
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Demand Analysis
Applications for Forest Plans and
Recreation Site Master Planning
USDA Forest Service
December 15, 2008 Draft
1
Demand Introduction
This chapter outlines the process for estimating recreation demand in a practical manner for
application in forest planning and other processes such as Capital Improvement Projects (CIP) and
management plans. When the forest is using this process to focus on analysis beyond the forest plan,
the main data sources discussed below can be dissected for specific activities or segments of the
recreating public. Additionally, greater emphasis on other studies that pertain to specific activity or
local issues will be needed.
Process Framework
The framework to analyze recreation demand is:
1. Use a limited number of data sources. The two primary data sources include Resources
Planning Act (RPA) and National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM). Limiting data sources will
reduce confusion and promote national consistency.
2. Incorporate spatial analysis. Spatial analysis will clarify data through visual representation
and will aid in communication with the public and other providers.
3. Focus efforts on no more than 20 recreation opportunities. By focusing on a limited number
of recreation opportunities, forests will be able to use limited resources and concentrate on
high priority recreation opportunities instead of losing focus and strategy on all recreation
opportunities.
4. Engage the public. Interfacing with the public early and often with focused efforts will lead
to greater success in understanding and strategizing around demand. In addition, when
using the demand analysis for forest planning purposes, documented public participation
will aid in meeting requirements in the 2008 Planning Rule.
5. Incorporate other providers. Considering all providers in the market area will aid in
assessing the appropriate facilities and services to be offered by the forest.
Definition of Demand Analysis
There are numerous definitions and concepts for the term demand; however, for the purposes of
this process, the practical definition of demand analysis is:
“An assessment of the recreation opportunities and settings desired by the public
for a given market area and tradeoffs to optimize beneficial outcomes.”
Recreation Opportunities
Recreation opportunities, rather than recreation activities, are the focus of this demand analysis
process and is described below and in figure 1:1
Research has shown that recreationists not only seek to participate in recreation activities, but
also seek specific recreation settings in order to enjoy a special kind of recreation experience
and subsequent benefits. These four components (i.e., activities, settings, experience,
benefits) constitute a recreation opportunity; that is, the opportunity for a person to
1
Haas, G., Aukerman, R., Lovejoy, V., and Welch, D. Water Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (WROS) Users’
Guidebook. United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Office of Program and Policy Services,
Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, Colorado. July, 2004.
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participate in a particular recreation activity in a specific setting in order to enjoy a
particular recreation experience and the benefits this affords.
Figure 1
An example of recreation opportunity vs. recreation activity is this: One family might desire
camping in a modern, full service campground on a reservoir in order to spend quality time
with the family, to rest and relax, and to see nature’s beauty. Another family might desire
camping in a rural location where they can test their fishing skills, enjoy solitude, and see
nature’s beauty. Both families want to go camping, but in very different settings leading to
different kinds of experiences and benefits; that is, they are seeking different kinds of
recreation opportunities, desired experiences and outcomes.
The emphasis for this demand analysis process is on recreation opportunities not just recreation
activities. By focusing on recreation opportunities, managers address the entirety of recreation.
Data Sources
With the multitude of studies available, it can be difficult for a manager to determine which studies to
use and how to use them. This process focuses on two main studies for activities:
1. Resources Planning Act (RPA) data that shows expected future demand for activity
participation by residents of the market area.
2. National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) that shows current consumption or activity
participation on a particular national forest.
Resources Planning Act (Market Area)
The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment reports2 on the status and trends of the Nation’s
renewable resources on all forests and rangelands, as required by the Forest and Rangeland
Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974. Renewable resources evaluated in RPA Assessment
reports include fish and wildlife, water, forests, range, wilderness, and outdoor recreation
opportunities, as well as the trends associated with these resources. The RPA data uses the latest
National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE) database as one of the foundational
data sources; therefore, NSRE findings are already incorporated into the RPA data. This process will
use the RPA data to provide the basis of quantitative information for outdoor recreation demand
forecasts for all forests in the agency.
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Final datasets will be available no later than Fall 2009.
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The data is:
 Scientifically credible
 Nationally consistent and can be used for national data calls
 Tied with Forest Service Strategic Plan
 Useful and practical for the field
 Integrates NSRE and NVUM data where applicable
The RPA data can provide typical quantitative information found in a demand analysis as well as
specialized information useful for forests:
 Population and demographics (current situation, recent trends and future social change)
 Natural resource values in modern society
 Relationships between social trends and natural lands
 Outdoor recreation, tourism and amenity migration trends and projections
 Wilderness and other protected lands
The RPA data is expected Summer 2009 and will become available to forests in the form of a
“Decisions System Model,” which is a computer model that takes complex demographic and demand
data and translates it into information applicable for the manager. It will produce a list of activities that
are important to the market area (a set of counties that comprise the primary users of the forest as
shown in the figure 2 below) in terms of current and expected activity participation given the expected
changes in the population. It will also give a profile of the typical user for each activity, and then a
percent increase or decrease for that activity. More Decision System Model information is included in
Appendix A.
NVUM (Forest)
The NVUM database is both an inventory of existing forest visitor use and a monitoring tool that
assesses visitor satisfaction with and use of existing recreation supply. In addition, economic
information (visitor spending in the local area) is available. The NVUM data is the best data source to
show what is currently happening on a particular forest. This information describes the current
situation on the forest and serves as baseline information to contrast against forecasted data.
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Figure 2 Market Area Example
The NVUM 2.0 web-based application3 includes the results of “Round 1” surveys with “Round 2” data
incorporated as it becomes available. The application includes features to extract tabular data,
produce formatted reports, and create maps and graphs. More NVUM information is included in
Appendix B.
Spatial Analysis
Much of this information can be displayed spatially to present the information in a more productive
format. With a visual representation of the data, patterns can emerge that allow managers to segment
the forest into recreation opportunities. The resulting map can also be used as a discussion point with
the public and other providers.
Each forest will work with GIS personnel to include the following layers:
 Counties and characteristics of residents in the market area
 Population centers
 Economic information
 Roads that connect those population centers to the forest
 ROS- A three-level composite mapping process to develop a zoning framework for outdoor
recreation managers to answer questions concerning both allocation and management of
opportunities for recreation and tourism. The ROS zoning classifications can be linked to
specific outdoor activity types and provide common terminology for comparison with supply.
3
The NVUM 2.0 application is still under development at the time of writing this report and is expected Fall 2009.
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NVUM pre-work data: Survey sites and their use levels can be added to highlight the
recreation hotspots on the forest and what activities are occurring in those recreation hotspots.
Recreation infrastructure (from Infra): Recreation sites that facilitate various activities and
characteristics of those recreation sites will expand upon the use in those areas.
Other relevant layers that are available for use and can be applied:
o Wilderness/Road-less boundaries
o Water ways, Wild and Scenic Rivers and Scenic Byways corridors
o Travel Management layers produced from that process, plus Nat’l Trails
o Ownership boundaries, and other special designations
As shown in figure 3 below, data from the market area (RPA Data) and the forest (NVUM) can be
displayed on a map to demonstrate how demographics, economic information, and activity
participation in the market area can affect recreation opportunities on the forest.
Figure 3 Spatial Analysis Example
Focusing
Most forests do not have the resources to do an extensive analysis on all the possibilities of the
forest; therefore, the forest must focus and strategize on a limited number of activities. A forest should
limit their analysis of recreation opportunities to no more than 20.4 The Decision System Model uses
scientifically credible data to provide an initial set of activities and narrow the focus. This initial look
can be combined with management input, public input, special or unique opportunities, resource
compatibility, as well as other factors to determine the list of key recreation opportunities for any
expanded research.
4
Glenn Hass recommends limiting the number of recreation opportunities to less than 20 in his Estimating Future
Recreation Demand: A Decision Guide for the Practitioner manual he wrote for the Bureau Of Reclamation (pg.21). The
concept of ‘not being all things to everyone on every acre’ applies to the planning efforts as well.
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Engage the Public
Public engagement is very helpful to the demand analysis process. In addition, the 2008 Planning
Rule has an increased expectation for public participation throughout the process. With the main data
efforts being satisfied from a limited number of data sources, managers can focus more time to
interact with the public and build relationships. Considering restrictions from the Paperwork Reduction
Act,5 public meetings and scoping letters are preferred methods to receive comments and share work
with the public. Much of the information received from the public will be anecdotal in nature; however,
this can still be very productive. The aforementioned data and spatial analysis can be shared with the
public early in the process and provide a starting point to interface with the public.
When the demand analysis is being used for forest planning, the 2008 Planning Rule requires that the
forest conduct public participation meetings throughout the life of the planning process. Activities that
could aid the demand analysis in these meetings/workshops include:
 Discuss the data and spatial analysis
 Receive comments on the issues
 Expand upon key recreation opportunities that were identified earlier in the process
 Invite other providers to present summary findings for their lands
 Invite other experts to talk about specific issues or concerns
 Invite local city/county/state tourism bureaus to share their knowledge
The GIS layers mentioned above could easily be turned into a Google Earth file that could be shared
with the public. This Google Earth file can be posted on websites of the forest, other providers,
partners, and so forth. A computer can be made available for public use in lobbies of offices so
people without computers have the ability to interact with the map as well as supply feedback about
the planning process outside of a public meeting.
Other Providers
This process allows consideration of how best to complement the recreation services and facilities of
other agencies and the private sector in your market area to maximize effective use of federal funding
and enhance economic growth for community sustainability. The forest will review other suppliers to
determine their offerings in the market area, aggregated by ROS class if possible. This information
can be placed in a GIS layer and added to the map, as it will be useful for analysis and discussion
with the public and other providers.
For the key recreation opportunities identified earlier in this process, forests will need to focus on
other providers in the market area that supply similar recreation opportunities. Forests should invite
other providers to discuss these issues and their experiences. This will promote dialogue between
providers, share data, foster relationships, and increase collaborative efforts. Other providers should
be invited to attend and when suitable present at public meetings. They can speak to the patterns of
use, trends, visitor preferences, and so forth they are witnessing on their lands. This also highlights
for the public the connection between the Forest Service and other providers in providing the universe
of recreation opportunities in the market area.
5
http://fsweb.wo.fs.fed.us/orms/infocollectindex.shtml
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Other Research
Numerous studies can be helpful in this analysis process. While the majority of information can be
gathered from RPA & NVUM, a forest may want to address other studies that pertain to specific
activities or local issues. These other studies can be beneficial for expanding the depth of research.
It is possible that additional studies may offer contradicting (perceived or realistic) information
compared to what is offered by the two primary data sources. Forests are encouraged to contact the
authors of these other studies when this occurs.
Because studies can vary in type and quality of information, only a brief overview is presented below,
with those studies in bold identifying the more complementary studies:
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Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP). Most states generate a
detailed report for the universe of outdoor recreation opportunities in the state. This report is a
comprehensive look at all providers in the state and may offer trend analysis, supply inventory,
local issues of concern, and other information that could be useful for the forest.
State and local tourism studies. These studies generally look at emphasis areas to promote
tourism. These studies often use surveys and other primary research methods to gather data
on a local level, so these can be great supplemental sources of information. It is also important
to stay abreast with current emphasis areas, as national forests are often the recipients of the
tourists who were promoted to the state through these efforts.
County economic development studies. These studies will help with local level planning for
new housing developments, job opportunities, and so forth that could attract more residents
that could alter the existing population in size and composition.
Special Use Permit data. This data provided from O/Gs can be useful for visitor numbers and
characteristics. Ski areas generally have use numbers that could add to a study.
National Recreation Reservation Service (NRRS) data. The NRRS data can be very helpful
in generating data concerning occupancy rates, visitor origin, length of stay, group size, and so
forth. Although this data only concerns a small number of activities, it does provide some
detailed information about those activities.6
Compliance counts. Use patterns can be ascertained from routine compliance counts. This
information can inform managers of recreation hotspots on the forest.
Industry studies. The outdoor industry can provide some insights that are specific to their
industry in terms of trends, hotspots, user profile, and so forth. The private sector does not
have many of the restrictions the government has and is able to be more responsive and
conduct primary research.
Scientific studies. There is a wealth of scientific studies on general and specific issues,
national and local scales, and so forth. This body of research will vary in its utility, but studies
focusing on key recreation opportunities can expand the existing data.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) studies. These mandated and therefore
plentiful FERC studies can often provide a great deal of information for water-based recreation.
Individual management plans. Review past work to focus on specific activities or sites that
need increased research.
Additional work could become available to link NVUM and NRRS data for refining information available to forests.
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Census Bureau County Business Patterns. County Business Patterns is an annual series that
provides subnational economic data by industry. The series is useful for studying the economic
activity of small areas; analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark for
statistical series, surveys, and databases between economic censuses. Businesses use the
data for analyzing market potential, measuring the effectiveness of sales and advertising
programs, setting sales quotas, and developing budgets. Government agencies use the data
for administration and planning.
Resources
TIPS- Technical Information for Planning
http://www.fs.fed.us/TIPS/
The NVUM 2.0 application will be available from the following website:
http://fsweb.nris.fs.fed.us/installation/index.php
State tourism websites for all 50 states
http://www.usa.gov/Citizen/Topics/Travel_Tourism/State_Tourism.shtml
Industry Studies
Sporting Goods Manufactures Association (has links to numerous activity specific industry
studies as well)
http://www.sgma.com/
Outdoor Industry Association
http://www.outdoorindustry.org
Census Bureau County Business Patterns
http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/index.html
SCORPS are generally available from the state parks system- a web search will generally find the
appropriate one.
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Appendix A- Decision System Model
The Decision System Model consists of the following primary steps 7:
1. Population Analysis - Summarizes population characteristics in the market area (1.5-2 hour
drive from the forest).
a. Population
b. Population density
c. Population increase
d. Fastest growing counties
2. Recreation Participation Analysis- Summarizes overall outdoor recreation participation for
the market area in terms of current and expected activity participation based on certain
demographic, economic, and activity preference shifts in the market area.
3. Analysis of Highest Growth Outdoor Recreation Activities- Reviews which outdoor
recreation activities in the market area are growing fastest in terms of total participation.
4. Detailed Recreation Participation Analysis by Demographic Strata – Overviews population
composition and expected growth of 7 major demographic groups (age, gender, race, income,
household type, urban-rural, and disability status) and preference for forest-based outdoor
recreation activities.
5. Ad hoc Activities– Allows the user to retrieve information for specific activities that may not
have surfaced in the model. For instance, there may be activities that have low participation
rates, but the forest serves as a major provider of that opportunity such as cross-country
skiing- it may have low participation in the market area, but the forest is the only place that has
reliable snow to serve that small segment. For these types of activities, forests can still view
the applicable data.
The Decision System Model will deliver key recreation activities with a profile of the typical user for
each activity, and a forecasted user profile as well as a percent increase or decrease for that activity.
Table 1 Decision System Model Output EXAMPLE
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Activity
Current User
Profile
Current
Market Area
Participation.
Forecasted
User Profile
Forecasted
Market Area
Participation
% Increase
or Decrease
in Activity
Participation
View wildlife
55-64 yrs old
54% Female
Household Size: 4
83% White
Income: $40-49K
64% Urban
53%
64+ yrs old
58% Female
Household Size: 3
74% White
Income: $50-59K
78% Urban
60%
7%
The final decision system model is expected Fall 2009. This will be available through the Forest Service Intranet.
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Appendix B- NVUM Information
The NVUM 2.0 web-based application8 can be used to generate tables for a single forest, a grouping
of multiple forests, or an entire Region. At a minimum, the following tables should be reviewed and
incorporated into the process9:
Table 2: National Forest Visitor use estimate
Table 5: Percent of National Forest Visits by gender
Table 6: Percent of National Forest Visits by race/ethnicity
Table 7: Percent of National Forest Visits by age
Table 8: Zip Codes, states, and counties of survey respondents
Table 9: Percent of National Forest Visits by distance traveled
Table 10: Visit duration
Table 12: Percent of National Forest Visits by annual visit
Table 13: Activity participation
Table 14: Percent of National Forest Visits indicating use of special facilities or areas used
Table 15: Distribution of National Forest Visits by market segment
Table 16: Average spending of National Forest Visitor groups by market segment, dollars per
group per trip
Table 42 Overall Satisfaction for visits to National Forest recreation facilities and services
Table 22: Percent of Site Visits by crowding rating by Site Type
The NVUM application handbook provides a resource to help managers interpret the NVUM table
variables and understand how to use the data. An example is below:
Table 13: Activity participation on Sherwood National Forest
Description
Visitor activity participation such as that provided in Table 13 is a good indicator of the
types of recreation opportunities and settings in current demand by recreation visitors.
Column 1 lists the specific outdoor recreation activity measured. First, survey respondents
were asked to pick all the recreation activities they had participated in during their current
National Forest Visit. Columns 2 and 3 summarize this information in percent and list the
total number of respondents who picked this activity. Survey respondents could pick more
than one of the 26 activities measured so column 2 may total over 100%.
Survey respondents were asked to select just one of their activities as their main reason for
the National Forest Visit. These responses are summarized in columns 4 and 5 as
percentages and the total number of respondents who picked this activity as their main
activity. In some cases respondents picked more than one main activity, so column 4 may
total more than 100%.
Information in Table 13 is available as forest, regional, and national level summaries.
8
The NVUM 2.0 application is still under development at the time of writing this report and is expected Fall 2009.
Additional tables may be available in addition to or in lieu of the tables mentioned. Guidance will be provided to the field
as more information becomes available.
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Table 13 Activity participation
Activity
% Participation
Participation (n)
% Main Activity
Main Activity (n)
Developed Camping
3.6
.6
16
Primitive Camping
2.6
.3
3
Backpacking
6.6
0
0
Resort Use
2.2
.4
2
Picnicking
11.6
1.4
18
Viewing Natural Features
48.0
10.8
45
Visiting Historic Sites
15.3
4.2
6
Nature Center Activities
1.2
0
0
Nature Study
5.4
0
0
36.3
4.5
33
Fishing
6.0
2.5
45
Hunting
32.0
29.3
120
9.6
2.6
6
28.4
1.0
11
Snowmobiling
2.8
.8
10
Motorized Water Activities
1.6
.9
21
.1
.1
0
40.6
5.6
28
Cross-country Skiing
.4
.2
4
Other Non-motorized
14.2
13.0
94
4.0
.7
5
47.4
2.6
8
Relaxing
OHV Use
Driving for Pleasure
Other Motorized Activity
Hiking / Walking
Gathering Forest Products
Viewing Wildlife
Interpreting the Results
Table 13 indicates that viewing natural features (48.0%), viewing wildlife (47.4%), relaxing
(36.3%), hunting (32%) and driving for pleasure (28.4%) were the top five recreation
activities (column 2, rows 6, 26, 10, 12, and 14) pursued by survey respondents on the
Sherwood National Forest. When survey respondents were asked to identify their main
recreation activity for their current National Forest Visit their top five choices were hunting
(29.3%), other nonmotorized activities (13%), viewing natural features (10.8%),
hiking/walking (5.6%), and relaxing (4.5%) (column 4, rows 12, 24, 6, 18, and 10).
Clearly hunting is a primary destination activity on the Sherwood National Forest because
32% of all respondents said they had participated in hunting (column 2, row 12) and 29.3%
of respondents said it was their main activity (column 4, row 12) during their National Forest
Visit.
Activity participation and main activity information are very important for recreation and
forest planning. This information is one of the best indicators of CURRENT recreation
[consumption]. Reviewing current activity participation information may reveal previously
unknown destination type recreation demand such as snowmobiling or hunting.
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