ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE POSSIBILITY OF ADAPTING SOME ROAD SAFETY MEASURES SUCCESSFULLY APPLIED IN VICTORIA TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA by Peter Vulcan Max Cameron Narelle Mullan David Dyte September 1996 Report No. 102 ii MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Report No. 102 Date September 1996 ISBN 0 7326 0682 9 Pages 57+18 Title: Possibility of adapting some road safety measures successfully applied in Victoria to South Australia Author(s) Peter Vulcan Max Cameron Narelle Mullan David Dyte Type of Report & Period Covered: General, 1989-95 Sponsoring Organisation(s): Enforcement Strategies Working Party of the South Australian Road Safety Consultative Council through the Office of Road Safety, Department of Transport, South Australia Abstract: In Victoria, during the period 1989 to 1992 there was a reduction of 49% in fatalities and nearly 40% in persons admitted to hospital. These reductions have generally been maintained through to 1995. The fatality rate in Victoria has averaged approximately 23% below that in South Australia since 1990, while during the previous 20 years, the South Australian rate was below the Victorian rate about half the time. Hence it is considered feasible for South Australia to further reduce road trauma, possibly by adapting to its own environment some of the measures which were found to be successful in Victoria. An analysis has shown that in addition to a downturn in the economy, the two factors which have contributed most to the reduction in road deaths and injuries in Victoria were increased enforcement supported by major publicity directed at drink-driving and excessive speeding. This study has examined current practice and future plans in South Australia in relation to drink-driving and speed enforcement to identify any aspects where adaptation of the Victorian experience may be appropriate to further reduce road trauma. Ten recommendations have been made, which if implemented are expected to result in further reductions in road trauma, with the benefits considerably greater than the implementation costs. Key Words: Road trauma reductions, random breath testing, speed cameras, enforcement, publicity, Reproduction of this page is authorised Disclaimer This report is disseminated in the interest of information exchange. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and not necessarily those of Monash University Monash University Accident Research Centre, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria, 3168, Australia. Telephone: +61 3 9905 4371, Fax: +61 3 9905 4363 ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA iii Contents 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The Task ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Comparison of Road Fatalities in South Australia and Victoria ....................................... 2 1.3 Comparison of Blood Alcohol Content............................................................................. 4 2. FACTORS IN REDUCTION OF ROAD TRAUMA IN VICTORIA ...................................... 5 2.1 Reductions in Road Casualties.......................................................................................... 5 2.2 Relatively Small Reductions for Measures Directed at Small Target Groups .................. 6 2.3 Speed Camera Program..................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Random Breath Testing Program....................................................................................... 8 2.5 Publicity Campaigns ......................................................................................................... 9 2.6 Modelling Monthly Serious Casualty Crashes ................................................................ 13 2.7 Estimated Benefits and Costs .......................................................................................... 13 3. THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SITUATION.......................................................................... 15 3.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Co-ordination Arrangements ........................................................................................... 15 3.3 Strategic Planning ........................................................................................................... 15 3.4 Speed Control Program................................................................................................... 16 3.5 Drink Driving Control Program...................................................................................... 17 3.7 Additional Resources Required...................................................................................... 23 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 24 APPENDIX A DEMERIT POINTS FOR SPEED CAMERA OFFENCES .............................. 27 APPENDIX B EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS.......................................................................... 29 APPENDIX C RANDOM BREATH TESTING OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA..... 37 APPENDIX D PROPOSAL...................................................................................................... 41 ATTACHMENT “Analysis of Reductions in Victorian Road Casualties, 1989 to 1992” iv MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Figures FIGURE 1 FATALITIES AND INJURIES AS A P ERCENTAGE OF 1987 LEVELS, VICTORIA 1987-1995................................... 1 FIGURE 2 NUMBER OF FATALITIES PER 10,000 REGISTERED VEHICLES, VICTORIA VS . SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1970-1995 ................................................................................................. 3 FIGURE 3 NUMBER OF FATALITIES PER 100,000 P OPULATION, VICTORIA VS . SOUTH AUSTRALIA 1970 - 1995............. 3 FIGURE 4 P ERCENTAGE OF DRIVERS AND MOTORCYCLISTS* WITH BAC > 0.05G/100ML, VICTORIA VS . SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1977-1995 ................................................................................................. 4 FIGURE 5 MONTHLY NUMBER OF TRAFFIC INFRINGEMENT NOTICES (TINS) ISSUED FOR SPEEDING OFFENCES DETECTED BY SPEED CAMERAS, VICTORIA JAN 1989 - JUNE 1996 ........................................................................................ 7 FIGURE 6 NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS PER MONTH, VICTORIA 1989-1995 ...................................................... 8 FIGURE 7 TAC ROAD SAFETY TELEVISION ADVERTISING : TARPS PER MONTH BY THEME IN MELBOURNE, NOV 1989 - DEC 1995.................................................................................................................................... 12 FIGURE 8 OBSERVED VS. P REDICTED MONTHLY SERIOUS CASUALTY CRASHES USING MODELS ESTIMATED ON 1983-93 DATA , MELBOURNE, HIGH ALCOHOL HOURS .......................................................... 13 FIGURE 9 ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS IN SERIOUS CASUALTY CRASHES ATTRIBUTABLE TO VARIOUS FACTORS IN VICTORIA ....................................................................................................................... 14 FIGURE 10 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1995/96) WITH THE NUMBER OF DRIVERS AND MOTORCYCLISTS WITH KNOWN BAC>0.05G/100 ML (1990-94), SOUTH AUSTRALIA ................................... 20 FIGURE 11 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ROAD SAFETY TELEVISION ADVERTISING: TARPS PER MONTH BY THEME IN ADELAIDE, J AN 1993-JUNE 1996 ............................................................................................................... 21 FIGURE B1 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1995/96) WITH THE NUMBER OF DRIVERS AND MOTORCYCLISTS INVOLVED IN CRASHES WITH KNOWN BAC>0.05G/100 ML (1990-94), SOUTH AUSTRALIA .............................................................. 29 FIGURE B2 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1995/96) WITH THE PERCENTAGE OF DRIVERS AND MOTORCYCLISTS INVOLVED IN CRASHES WITH KNOWN BAC>0.05G/100 ML (1990-84), SOUTH AUSTRALIA ...................................................................................................................................................... 30 FIGURE B3 P ERCENTAGE OF DRIVERS AND MOTORCYCLISTS WITH BAC > 0.05G/100ML WITHIN SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1986/87 - 1995/96........................................................................................................................................ 31 FIGURE B4 12 MONTH MOVING TOTAL OF NUMBER OF SERIOUS CRASHES IN ADELAIDE STATISTICAL DIVISION BY HIGH AND LOW ALCOHOL HOURS, J AN 1983 - JUNE 1995 ........................................................................ 35 FIGURE B5 12 MONTH MOVING TOTAL OF NUMBER OF SERIOUS CASUALTY CRASHES IN THE REST OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA BY HIGH AND LOW ALCOHOL HOURS, J AN 1983 - JUNE 1995 ....................................................................... 35 FIGURE C1 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1992/93) WITH THE NUMBER OF DRIVERS AND RIDERS WITH KNOWN BAC > 0.05 (1990-94)................................................................................................ 37 FIGURE C2 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1993/94) WITH THE NUMBER OF DRIVERS AND RIDERS WITH KNOWN BAC > 0.05 (1990-94)................................................................................................ 37 FIGURE C3 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1994/95) WITH THE NUMBER OF DRIVERS AND RIDERS WITH KNOWN BAC > 0.05 (1990-94)................................................................................................ 38 FIGURE C4 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1992/93) WITH THE PERCENTAGE OF DRIVERS AND RIDERS WITH KNOWN BAC > 0.05 (1990-94)........................................................................................ 38 FIGURE C5 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1993/94) WITH THE PERCENTAGE OF DRIVERS AND RIDERS WITH KNOWN BAC > 0.05 (1990-94)........................................................................................ 39 FIGURE C6 COMPARISON OF THE NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS (1994/95) WITH THE PERCENTAGE OF DRIVERS AND RIDERS WITH KNOWN BAC > 0.05 (1990-94)........................................................................................ 39 ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA v Tables TABLE 1 MEDIA P LACEMENT EXPENDITURE BY TAC FOR ROAD SAFETY ADVERTISING IN VICTORIA 1990-93 .............. 11 TABLE 2 THE EXTENT OF SPEED CAMERA OPERATIONS IN VICTORIA AND SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1993 ............................ 16 TABLE 3 NUMBER OF RANDOM BREATH TESTS IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1981/82 TO 1995/96 ...................................... 18 TABLE 4 NUMBER OF RBT TESTS PER 100 LICENCED DRIVERS, VICTORIA AND SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1989-1995 ............................................................................................. 18 TABLE 5 NUMBER OF RBT TESTS PER 100 POPULATION ................................................................................................. 19 TABLE 6 TELEVISION TARPS FOR ROAD SAFETY ADVERTISING IN ADELAIDE AND MELBOURNE, 1993-1995 ................................................................................................... 22 TABLE B1 P ERCENTAGE OF DRIVER AND MOTORCYCLIST CASUALTIES WITH KNOWN BAC, SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1990-1994 ..................................................................................................................... 33 TABLE B2 P ERCENTAGE OF DRIVER AND MOTORCYCLIST CASUALTIES WITH BAC OVER 0.05G/100 ML, SOUTH AUSTRALIA , 1990-1994 ................................................................. 33 vi MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In undertaking this study, the consultants were given extensive information by a wide range of people involved with road safety in South Australia, who gave freely of their time, in some cases conducted further analyses and provided copies of publications which contained further valuable information. Particular thanks for their assistance is given to: In alphabetical order: Superintendent Graham Barrett Inspector Graeme Barton Sergeant Michael Delany Mr. Michael Gramps Mr. Lou Heidenreich Superintendent Bob Howie Ms. Christine Hunter Senior Sergeant Rick Laslett Mr. Ross McColl Asst. Comm. Neil McKenzie Inspector Tom Osborn Mr. John Spencer Mr. Chris Thomson Mr. Fred Tiong Mr. John Walker Dr. Michael White Officer in Charge, Traffic Services Officer in Charge, Northern Command Traffic Traffic Resource Sergeant Office of the Liquor Licencing Commissioner Manager, Speed Cameras Office in Charge, Far North Division Office of Road Safety Traffic Technical Resource Section Manager, Traffic Research and Intelligence Section Operations Support Command, S.A. Police Officer in Charge, Southern Command Traffic Acting Manager, Office of Road Safety Royal Automobile Association of S.A. Office of Road Safety Office of Road Safety Office of Road Safety The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the persons who provided advice and information about South Australian road safety activities. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA vii viii MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In Victoria, during the period 1989 to 1992 there was a reduction of 49% in fatalities and nearly 40% in persons admitted to hospital. These reductions have generally been maintained through to 1995. The fatality rate in Victoria has averaged approximately 23% below that in South Australia since 1990, while during the previous 20 years, the South Australian rate was below the Victorian rate about half the time. Hence it is considered feasible for South Australia to further reduce road trauma, possibly by adapting to its own environment some of the measures which were found to be successful in Victoria. An analysis has shown that in addition to a downturn in the economy, the two factors which have contributed most to the reduction in road deaths and injuries in Victoria were: • increased RBT using high visibility “booze buses”, supported by massive publicity; • progressive introduction of 54 new speed cameras, supported by publicity. This study has examined current practice and future plans in South Australia in relation to drink-driving and speed enforcement to identify any aspects where adaptation of the Victorian experience may be appropriate to further reduce road trauma. The following recommendations are made: 1. That the development of action plans for the implementation of “Road Safety S.A.” now be undertaken as an important next step. 2. That consideration be given to extending the demerit points system to speed camera offences because of its likely deterrent effect, particularly for habitual offenders. 3. That South Australia considers a change in the method of operation which would not require speed cameras to be visible, while maintaining the current relatively high level of TINs issued for speeding offences detected by cameras. 4. That an evaluation be undertaken of the effect on casualty crashes of the South Australian laser speed detector initiative, where every speed offender is to be breath tested. 5. That all possible efforts be made to increase the number of random breath tests in Adelaide to about double present levels, preferably by increased use of highly visible bus based testing. 6. That random breath testing outside Adelaide be increased and supported by appropriate publicity in accordance with the rural safety strategy currently being developed in South Australia. 7. It is recommended that use continue to be made of the high quality data available at both the Office of Road Safety and the Traffic Intelligence Section to plan and monitor that RBT operations are undertaken at times which reflect the incidence of alcohol related crashes. 8. That resources be allocated to double the exposure of television advertisements, which support the speed camera and random breath testing programs. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA ix 9. That research be undertaken to investigate the relative effectiveness of a TAC style advertisement (graphic and highly emotive), which supports speed camera or RBT enforcement and an existing South Australian advertisement, when exposed at approximately the same levels, say 800 TARPs per month, under similar conditions of enforcement. 10. That the development of advertisements in South Australia be based on testing and retesting of a range of concepts with members of the target groups, through group discussion research to ensure that messages are relevant to them and that they are positively received. It is expected that implementation of these recommendations is likely to result in further reductions in road trauma, with the benefits considerably greater than the implementation costs. x MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE POSSIBILITY OF ADAPTING SOME ROAD SAFETY MEASURES SUCCESSFULLY APPLIED IN VICTORIA TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Task The Enforcement Strategies Working Party of the South Australian Road Safety Consultative Council, through the Office of Road Safety, Department of Transport, South Australia has requested the Monash University Accident Research Centre to investigate and report on the extent to which there is scope to apply in South Australia some of the measures which have been successful in reducing road trauma in Victoria. A copy of the Centre’s proposal for the project is at Appendix D. In Victoria during the period 1989 to 1992 there was a reduction of 49% in fatalities and nearly 40% in persons admitted to hospital resulting from road crashes. These new low levels have generally been maintained through to 1995 (Figure 1). 120% 100% Percentage of 1987 Level 80% 60% 40% Fatalities 20% Serious Injuries Other Injuries 0% 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Year Figure 1 Fatalities and Injuries as a Percentage of 1987 Levels, Victoria 1987-1995 In order to limit the duration and costs of this study, it is was agreed that it be limited to the two main areas where success in reducing road trauma in Victoria has been evaluated and documented, namely programs aimed at the reduction of drink driving and speeding. If in undertaking the study it becomes apparent that there is scope for further significant road trauma reductions in other areas, these will be outlined. This report describes the significant issues in the development and implementation of the two Victorian programs, i.e. • intensified random breath testing through introduction of high visibility “booze buses”, and ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 1 • progressive introduction of 54 new slant radar speed cameras • with massive multi-media publicity support for each program. The report then examines current practice and future plans in South Australia in relation to drink driving enforcement (particularly RBT) and speed enforcement particularly speed cameras and laser speed detection. The use of publicity to support these programs is also examined. Recommendations are made for additions or changes to the current or planned S.A. programs, or new programs related to drink-driving and speeding which are likely to be effective in reducing road trauma. 1.2 Comparison of Road Fatalities in South Australia and Victoria Progress in road safety is usually measured in terms of fatality rate, i.e. deaths per 100,000 population or per 10,000 registered vehicles (a proxy for distance travelled which is not available accurately each year). Comparison between States and nations is generally also made using these rates, although care should be taken in such comparisons because factors such as population density, vehicles per head of population, topography, level of unemployment and some road laws can also affect these rates. For example, South Australia could be expected to have a somewhat higher fatality rate than Victoria because it has a lower population density (a much larger area with a smaller population), although the average distance travelled per registered vehicle in S.A. is slightly less than in Victoria, namely 14,100 versus 15,200 km p.a. (Survey of Motor Vehicle Usage). Also because South Australia, presumably for mobility reasons, allows drivers to obtain a licence at age 16 years (versus 18) and has set speed limits on many open roads at 110 km/h (versus 100 km/h), it could expect to have a somewhat higher fatality rate than Victoria. Nevertheless, the fatality rates in South Australia and Victoria were very similar in 1970, before most of the scientifically based road safety initiatives were introduced in both States. Furthermore, as shown in Figure 2, the South Australian rate was below the Victorian rate for 8 of the 12 years between 1970 and 1981, and in Figure 3 for 6 of these 12 years. Again in 1988 and 1989, South Australia achieved a lower fatality rate than Victoria. Thus the comparison in fatality rates provides an indication of the extent to which South Australia could expect to achieve further reductions in its fatality rate. It can be seen from Figures 2 and 3 that since 1989, the gap between the South Australian and Victorian rates has widened, and since 1990 the Victorian rates have averaged about 23% (per vehicle 23.3%, per population 22.7%) lower than the South Australian ones. 2 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 9 8 Victoria South Australia Fatalities per 10000 Registered Vehicles 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 0 YEAR Figure 2 Number of Fatalities per 10,000 Registered Vehicles, Victoria vs. South Australia, 1970-1995 35 30 Victoria South Australia Fatalities per 100,000 Population 25 20 15 10 5 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 0 YEAR Figure 3 Number of Fatalities per 100,000 Population, Victoria vs. South Australia 1970 - 1995 Hence it seems feasible for South Australia to expect to lower its fatality rate by approximately 23%, possibly by adapting to its own environment, some of the measures which have been shown to be associated with the large reduction in road deaths and injuries in Victoria from 1989 to 1992. This report discusses some of these measures, but other initiatives specifically suitable to South Australia may also be appropriate. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 3 1.3 Comparison of Blood Alcohol Content Another measure which can be used to compare progress in dealing with drink driving is the percent of drivers and motorcyclists killed (with a known BAC) whose BAC exceeds 0.05%. Figure 4 shows these for South Australia and Victoria. While there is considerable variation from year to year (because of the relatively small numbers involved) and the 1994 and 1995 figures for South Australia show considerable improvement on earlier years, it seems there is some scope for further reductions in BAC levels. 60% Victoria South Australia 40% with BAC > 0.05 Percentage of Drivers and Motorcyclists 50% 30% 20% 10% 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 0% Year * Percentage taken from drivers and motorcyclists who have a known BAC, ie have been tested Source for South Australia: Draft report on Operation of RBT, Office of Road Safety, July 1996. Figure 4 4 Percentage of Drivers and Motorcyclists* with BAC > 0.05g/100ml, Victoria vs. South Australia, 1977-1995 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 2. FACTORS IN REDUCTION OF ROAD TRAUMA IN VICTORIA 2.1 Reductions in Road Casualties As can be seen in Figures 2 and 3, the fatality rate in Victoria had shown little reduction from 1980 to 1988. In September 1989 it appeared that if the trend in road deaths for the previous nine months continued, the total for that year would exceed 800 for the first time in 10 years. A series of measures were introduced commencing at the end of September, which saw the road toll peak at 776 deaths in 1989 and drop progressively to 396 in 1992. It has been maintained at about 407 (±7%) through to 1995. Figure 1 shows that there were similar reductions, though not quite as large, in serious injuries and other injuries. This section discusses the main factors which have been associated with the large reduction in both deaths and injuries during the period 1989 to 1992 and have maintained them at these low levels through to 1995. In addition to the downturn in the economy, the measures which are considered to have contributed to these reductions include: • New Speed Cameras, supported by publicity; • Increased Random Breath Testing, supported by publicity; • Bicycle Helmet Wearing Law; • Lowering of 110 km/h freeway speed limit; • Improvements to the road system through treatment of accident black spots; and • Special enforcement campaigns. Evaluations have been done on each of the above measures, except the last one and key aspects of these evaluations are presented in the attached paper “Analysis of Reductions in Victorian Road Casualties, 1989 to 1992” (Cameron, et.al., 1994) It can be seen from the attached paper that the major contributions to the reduction in road trauma were from the new speed cameras supported by publicity, the increased random breath testing supported by publicity and the downturn in the economy which occurred during the same period. Before discussing these in more depth, the smaller effects of the other measures will be briefly discussed. In addition to the effect of the road safety measures, it is important to realise that various Australian and overseas studies have shown that it is possible to construct models which link downturns in economic activity with reductions in road fatalities, taking into account changes in road safety measures and other relevant factors (Cameron and Newstead, 1993). The Monash University Accident Research Centre has constructed a model which estimates that the downturn in the economy as measured by increased unemployment, contributed about 13.5% to the reduction in serious casualty crashes in 1992 and the reduction in alcohol sales a further 10.6% (Cameron et.al., 1994). ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 5 2.2 Relatively Small Reductions for Measures Directed at Small Target Groups Three of the measures were directed at a relatively small part of overall road casualties, thus while they were shown to be highly effective in reducing casualties their contribution to the overall reductions in any one year was relatively small. Thus while the bicycle helmet law in its second year was reported to be associated with a 70% reduction in the number of bicyclists with a head injury killed or admitted to hospital, this only represented less than 1% of serious casualties (Cameron et.al., 1994b). Similarly, while the reduction of the speed limit on high standard rural and outer metropolitan freeways from 110 to 100 km/h was estimated to be associated with a 19% drop in the casualty accident rate, this corresponded to a drop of some 39 fatal or serious injury accidents per annum, i.e. about ½% of the total (Sliogeris, 1992). In regard to progressive improvements to the road system, particularly at locations or along routes with a bad casualty accident record, earlier studies have shown reductions in casualty accidents of 10-50% have been achieved, yielding very high benefit cost ratios (Cameron, et.al., 1994). However in the period 1989 to 1992, each year’s program has added a reduction of less 1% to the cumulative total reduction in serious casualty crashes. Finally, the special Police blitzes which were implemented for up to one week during several high accident periods of the year (e.g. Christmas/New Year, Easter, Queens Birthday weekend) often directed at certain types of road use, have not been evaluated because their duration was too short and thus their target is only a few percent of the total annual road toll. Hence, their total contributions could only be a few percent of the annual total. Hence, while each of the above four measures had a valuable effect on its own relatively small target group, their contribution to the total reductions in road trauma from 1989 to 1992 was relatively small, and was ignored in the modelling of the effect of the major factors which contributed to these reductions. As far as South Australia is concerned, it already has implemented some of the above measures, and could expect to gain only relatively small reductions from the others. They are therefore not discussed further in this report. The two main measures, namely the new speed camera program and the increased high profile random breath testing, both supported by publicity will now be discussed. 2.3 Speed Camera Program New slant radar speed cameras were progressively introduced in Victoria commencing with four in December 1989 and building to 54 by January 1991. The monthly numbers of speeding tickets (Traffic Infringement Notices) issued following detection by speed cameras are shown in Figure 5. The program included an intensive statewide mass media publicity campaign "Don't fool yourself - speed kills " which aimed to increase the perception of the level of camera operations and their legitimacy. This multi-media campaign by the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) involved much larger expenditure than previous road safety campaigns and is discussed in Section 2.5. 6 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 70000 60000 No. of TINs Issued 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Apr-96 Jan-96 Jul-95 Oct-95 Apr-95 Jan-95 Oct-94 Jul-94 Apr-94 Jan-94 Jul-93 Oct-93 Apr-93 Jan-93 Oct-92 Jul-92 Apr-92 Jan-92 Jul-91 Oct-91 Apr-91 Jan-91 Jul-90 Oct-90 Apr-90 Jan-90 Jul-89 Oct-89 Apr-89 Jan-89 0 Month Figure 5 Monthly Number of Traffic Infringement Notices (TINs) Issued for Speeding Offences Detected by Speed Cameras, Victoria Jan 1989 - June 1996 The evaluation found reductions in serious casualty crashes during low alcohol hours1 of more than 30% on Melbourne arterial roads and more than 20% on 60 km/h roads outside Melbourne, but no significant reductions on 100 km/h roads (details in attached paper). These results are consistent with the use of the cameras which had been mainly (80-90% of sessions) on arterial roads in 60 km/h zones in both Melbourne metropolitan and country areas. Their use was also greater in the metropolitan area (70% of sessions) than in the rest of Victoria. It is likely that several policy decisions contributed to the success of this program, namely: • that the enforcement program would be massive and widespread (an average of about 40,000 TINs per month has been maintained since September 1990); • that there would be no warning signs about the presence of a specific speed camera; • that the camera threshold for prosecution would be 10% plus 3 km/h above the speed limit, i.e. 69 km/h in a 60 km/h speed zone and 113 km/h in a 100 km/h zone (this was changed to 10 km/h in all speed zones in 1993); • that there would be massive supporting publicity specifically about the speed camera program; • demerit points were reinstated for speed camera offences (See Appendix A); • that speed cameras should generally be placed at locations where there was an accident problem, hence this was a road safety not a revenue raising program (this did not always happen during the first year or so); 1 “Low alcohol hours” are defined as Monday-Thursday 6.00 a.m. to 6.00 p.m., Friday 6.00 a.m. to 4.00 p.m., Saturday 8.00 a.m. to 2.00 p.m., Sunday 10.00 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 7 • 2.4 After the initial implementation, in response to public pressure and submissions by the Royal Automobile Club of Victoria, cameras were not often located on sections of divided roads with a 60 km/h speed zone, with 85th percentile speeds well above the speed limit, until these sections had been assessed for appropriateness of the speed limit. During 1992 and 1993 most such sections of divided roads were progressively speed zoned to 70 km/h or where service roads were present to 80 km/h. Random Breath Testing Program Commencing in September 1989 the use of buses for random breath testing (RBT) was gradually increased, initially in the metropolitan area using four existing buses and progressively throughout the State as 13 new purpose-built highly visible “booze buses” became available during 1990. Increased resources for operating the buses were provided through the use of Probationary Constables in Training. This resulted in the number of RBT tests increasing from around half a million in 1989 to over 900,000 in 1990 and over 1,100,000 in 1991. The number of tests per month are shown in Figure 6 for Melbourne and rural Victoria. Buses had become the primary form of RBT in the metropolitan area by November 1989, while in the rural areas the shift to greater use of buses occurred after October 1990. Number of Random Breath Tests per Month, Victoria 1989-1995 200000 Rural 180000 Total RBT Tests Metropolitan 160000 Number of RBT per Month 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Oct-95 Jul-95 Apr-95 Jan-95 Oct-94 Jul-94 Apr-94 Jan-94 Jul-93 Oct-93 Apr-93 Jan-93 Oct-92 Jul-92 Apr-92 Jan-92 Oct-91 Jul-91 Apr-91 Jan-91 Jul-90 Oct-90 Apr-90 Jan-90 Oct-89 Jul-89 Apr-89 Jan-89 0 Month Figure 6 Number of Random Breath Tests per Month, Victoria 1989-1995 In December 1989 a major statewide multi-million dollar publicity campaign “If you drink then drive - you’re a bloody idiot” was launched to support the new RBT operations. Further media launches and publicity for the new booze buses occurred in April and September 1990. Details of the publicity campaigns are given in section 2.5. One evaluation of the effect of the RBT program found reductions in high alcohol hour serious casualty crashes of 18% in Melbourne and 13% in the rest of Victoria. For fatal crashes in high alcohol hours a reduction of 24% was found for Melbourne, but no significant effect for the rest of Victoria. Another study confirmed some of these results (details in attached paper). 8 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Confining the evaluation to high alcohol hours is reasonable because an average of about 38% of serious casualty crashes in these hours involve a driver with a BAC over 0.05%, while the corresponding percentage during the remainder of the week (low alcohol hours) is below 4%. The larger reductions in the Melbourne area are consistent with the greater amount of RBT there and also with subsequent studies which have found it difficult to establish a relationship between the number of random breath tests and casualty reductions in rural areas. 2.5 Publicity Campaigns Since the first of the high profile publicity campaigns in December 1989, TAC have launched over 30 graphic road safety campaigns in the Victorian media. TAC decided to market road safety as though it were a consumer product. This included the use of “brand names” (slogans) for major road safety themes, messages focused on a single powerful proposition, segmenting the target groups for advertising, building brand “loyalty” (relevance of the messages), a structured media mix, and the use of sponsorship and merchandising to support the mass media publicity. The development of the television commercials relied heavily on the use of group discussion research with the respective target groups. The style Do’s and Dont’s resulting from their research experience are summarised by Forsyth and Ogden (1993). In essence these were: The “Dos” “The Dont’s” Do-be as shocking as you like. Do-be as emotional as possible. Do-ensure that any communication leaves us thinking that “this could happen to me”. Do-emphasise the link between drink/drive, speed, and real accidents. Don’t-concentrate on twisted metal. Don’t-bore us with statistics. Don’t-lecture us. Don’t-threaten us with authority, uniforms or financial penalties. Don’t-suggest that we cannot have a drink. Forsyth and Ogden (1993) also listed a number of other key characteristics which they believed were responsible for the success of the TAC campaigns. These were: “1. Consumer marketing approach We were the first to market road safety as though it were a consumer product. 2. Major research component We sought consumer involvement every step of the way. Through concept development, and then in measuring the effectiveness of communication against target audience. 3. Outstanding creative We went to the edge to achieve the credibility and relevance that were critical to effective communication. 4. “Pull-through” media weight ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 9 We quickly learnt that consistent exposure to the message was required to cause long term behaviour change. 5. Strong Police enforcement We cannot underestimate the importance of co-ordinating with Police activity. Nor the importance of Booze Buses, Speed Cameras and highly visible Police presence on our roads. 6. Community and media support A critical factor in putting road safety on the social agenda and maintaining community debate. We quickly learnt that consistent exposure to the message was required to cause long term behaviour change.” TAC have made use of the full range of available media for placement of their advertisements and supporting messages. Television is the principal medium used by TAC. This medium represented approximately 70-71% of TAC’s budget for media placement during 1990-92. The remainder of the media budget is split into approximately 14% press, 7% radio, 5% outdoor advertising (both stationary and mobile billboards), 2% Sky Channel and 2% cinema advertising. TAC maintains the same themes and messages in the supporting media as placed on television at any time. It is worth noting that TAC have launched no more than 4-5 different television advertisements each year since their road safety campaigns commenced. In the initial years, when most of the road safety progress in Victoria was achieved, the advertisements were generally emotive supporting the enforcement of drink driving and speeding offences. There was also one informative advertisement on the new “booze buses” and one on the new slant radar speed cameras. TAC has learnt that consistent exposure to the message is required to cause long term behaviour change. Television intensity is measured in terms of Target Audience Rating Points (TARPs). It is a summation of the Rating Points (i.e. the percentage of persons among the target group in the viewing area estimated to be watching the specific television channel at the time the advertisement was shown) for the particular Target Audience of the advertisement (eg. persons aged 18-39). The monthly TARPs, by theme of the message, of the television advertisements placed by TAC in Melbourne up to December 1995 are shown in Figure 7. Advertising at similar levels of intensity has been placed by TAC in Victoria’s country television regions. Information on TAC's total expenditure on placements in the mass media has been published by Harper (1991, 1993) for the years 1990-92 and is given in Table 1. It can be seen that a total of over $16.5 million (in December 1992 prices) was spent on placing TAC’s television advertisements during these three years. 10 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Table 1 Media Placement Expenditure by TAC for Road Safety Advertising in Victoria 1990-93 Year Media Budget ($m.) Television component (%) Television Placement Expenditure ($m.) Actual 1990 1991 1992 TOTAL 5.5 7.85 9.56 70 71 71 3.85 5.57 6.79 Indexed to Dec. 1992 4.05 5.67 6.83 16.55 Total television TARPs 9413 9342 15497 In addition to these media placement costs were the costs of developing the television advertisements. These costs averaged $220,000 for the eleven advertisements developed during 1989-92, with the most expensive costing $425,000 to develop (Cameron et al 1993). Research by Monash University Accident Research Centre (Cameron et al 1993) found clear links between the levels of TAC publicity supporting the speed and alcohol enforcement programs and reductions in casualty crashes when other major factors were held constant. The road safety effects of TAC publicity with themes not related to enforcement were less clear. The research included an assessment of the points of diminishing returns for different levels of TARPs placed. In terms of return on investment by reducing TAC payments to injury claimants, it was estimated that an investment of 800 TARPs per month on average in "drink-driving" publicity was economically justified before marginal benefits just equalled marginal costs. It was also estimated that an investment of 540 TARPs per month on average in a combination of "speeding" and "concentration" publicity was economically justified. (It has been suggested that the messages of the "concentration" advertisements may have been confused and interpreted as speeding-related messages). Higher levels of TARPs per month with these themes may have been economically justified if the crash savings had been valued by their total social costs. Critics of the emotional approach used in the TAC advertisements have argued that while the research described in Cameron, et. al., (1993) has found links between the levels of TAC publicity supporting speed and alcohol enforcement programs and reductions in the relevant casualty crashes, the research has not proved that other styles of advertisements, when used at the same high levels of intensity would not have similar effects. This argument is theoretically correct although it does not assist those who make decisions about the style of road safety publicity to be used, in order to ensure the best outcome for the funds invested. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 11 2 5 0 0 TARPs per Month 2 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 Nov-95 Aug-95 May-95 Feb-95 Nov-94 Aug-94 May-94 Feb-94 Nov-93 Aug-93 May-93 Feb-93 Nov-92 Aug-92 May-92 Feb-92 Nov-91 Aug-91 May-91 Feb-91 Nov-90 Aug-90 May-90 Feb-90 Nov-89 0 Month Drink-Driving Figure 7 Speed Concentration Seat Belts Fatigue Motorcycle TAC Road Safety Television Advertising: TARPs per Month by Theme in Melbourne, Nov 1989 - Dec 1995 2.6 Modelling Monthly Serious Casualty Crashes After separate studies had reported the reductions in fatal or casualty crashes associated with specific programs implemented in the period from late 1989 to 1992, it was decided to develop models linking monthly serious casualty crashes with the main operational measures of the speed camera and RBT programs, including supporting publicity. The effects of the economy were also included in these models. Four separate models were developed to cover high alcohol hours and low alcohol hours separately for Melbourne and the rest of Victoria. The details are given in the attached paper (Cameron, et.al., 1994). Figure 8 shows the model fitted to the monthly totals of serious casualty crashes in Melbourne during high alcohol hours. This model was able to explain 78% of the monthly variation, using the following explanatory factors: • number of random breath tests during month • retail alcohol sales during month • drink driving Adstock in month (a measure derived from TARPs) MELBOURNE : HAH Number of serious casualty crashes 350 300 250 200 150 100 May93 Sep93 Jan-93 May92 Sep92 Jan-92 May91 Sep91 Jan-91 May90 Sep90 Jan-90 May89 Sep89 Jan-89 May88 Sep88 Jan-88 May87 Sep87 Jan-87 May86 Sep86 Jan-86 May85 Sep85 Jan-85 May84 Sep84 Jan-84 Jan-83 0 May83 Sep83 50 Month Actual Predicted Figure 8 Observed vs. Predicted Monthly Serious Casualty Crashes Using Models Estimated on 1983-93 Data, Melbourne, High Alcohol Hours In order to obtain an estimate of the effect of each of the factors on the total serious casualty crashes in Victoria, these four models were combined. The results up to 1992 are shown in Table 4 of the attached paper (Cameron, et.al., 1994). Figure 9 shows these results, extended to 1993 and also includes the effect of the accident blackspot program which was calculated separately and then added to the model. 2.7 Estimated Benefits and Costs Figure 9 provides estimates of the percentage reductions in crashes involving death or hospital admission in Victoria during each of the years 1990 to 1993 due to the speed camera and random breath testing programs (including the supporting mass media publicity in each case). The estimated total saving in these serious casualty crashes during the four years was 10,820. (In addition, there were probably considerable savings in the less serious injury crashes, but these have been omitted from this assessment.) ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 13 1990 1992 1991 1993 0 Speed Camera TINs Speed & Concentration Publicity Bus-based RBT -10 -20 Reductions (%) RBT Publicity -30 Alcohol Sales total 31.1% Accident Black Spot total 42.7% -40 Unemployment total 46.6% -50 total 49.3% -60 -70 Figure 9 Estimated Reductions in Serious Casualty Crashes Attributable to Various Factors in Victoria The average social cost of a serious casualty crash, using the human capital approach, has been estimated as $200,000 in 1992 prices. Thus the total benefits from the two programs during 1990-93 is estimated to be $2160 million. During the years 1989/90 to 1992/93, the total cost of the increased random breath testing and speed camera programs, including the supporting publicity and establishment of the Traffic Camera Office and its operating costs, is estimated to have been $98 million over the same four years (Vulcan 1993). The total estimated benefits of $2160 million from the two programs during 1990 to 1993 could be compared with the total program costs of $98 million during the years 1989/90 to 1992/93 (note the slightly different timings of the four year period considered in each case). When this comparison is made, it can be seen that there is a benefit/cost ratio of 22:1 (ignoring discounting of future benefits). During the four years 1989/90 to 1992/93, TAC committed a total of $41.5 million to drinkdriving and speeding publicity and to other support for the two programs, usually in the form of equipment. The average TAC payment to persons killed or injured in serious casualty crashes has been estimated as $88,660 in 1992 prices (Cameron et al 1993). Thus the total saving to TAC in terms of reduced injury compensation payments, due the RBT and speed camera programs and supporting publicity during 1990-93, was about $960 million. This can be compared with the investment by TAC of $41.5 million in those programs. The comparison suggests that TAC's return on investment from its contribution to these programs was about 23 times TAC's outlays (ignoring discounting of future benefits). 14 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 3. THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SITUATION 3.1 Introduction This section of the report was compiled after having the benefit of interviews with the persons listed under Acknowledgements, study of the information, data and reports provided by them and some exploratory analyses described in Appendix B. In seeking additional data for some of these analyses we were impressed by the range of detailed information and its immediacy, which is available from the Traffic Intelligence Section of the South Australia Police. This is a most useful resource, whose value for traffic enforcement planning, monitoring, evaluation and strategy development should not be underestimated. 3.2 Co-ordination Arrangements It was found in Victoria that effective co-ordination arrangements were essential in achieving a statewide approach to the reduction in road trauma. The arrangements for co-ordination of road safety in South Australia on a “whole of government basis” are excellent. The Road Safety Chief Executive Officers Group ensures that road safety is given appropriate priority, using a whole of State approach, in the planning and program of those organisations which are able to affect road safety, namely: Education, Health, Local Government, Police and Transport. The Road Safety Consultative Council is able to utilise the wide range of expert knowledge which is available in the community and bring together a range of views from within and outside government. As such it should ensure that the Chief Executive Officers Group and through them the Minister are given the best possible advice. The organisational arrangements for delivery of effective and efficient services within the South Australia Police and within the Department of Transport appear to be appropriate, but detailed review of these arrangements is considered to be beyond the terms of reference of the Consultant’s brief. 3.3 Strategic Planning “Road Safety SA” - the strategic plan for road safety in South Australia till the year 2000 provides an excellent overall strategic direction. However, it states in Section 9.0: “Achievement of these outcomes cannot occur unless specific action plans are detailed. These action plans will indicate resource requirements, timelines and performance outcomes. The development of action plans is the next stage of the ‘Road Safety SA’ strategy”. Recommendation 1: That the development of action plans for the implementation of “Road Safety S.A.” now be undertaken as an important next step. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 15 The South Australian Police (SAPOL) Traffic Strategic Plan 1995-2000 outline the strategies required by the SAPOL in order to meet the objectives of “Road Safety SA” and the targets for the year 2000, in the context of the SAPOL Corporate Plan and the 1995 SAPOL Traffic Review. It provides the basis for actions by SAPOL needed to implement the strategies. 3.4 Speed Control Program The method used by the Traffic Research and Intelligence Section for identifying sites which should be considered for speed camera operations, based primarily on speed related crash data is excellent. The opportunity for the camera operators to vary the locations to take account of operational and occupational safety requirements is necessary. The opportunity to include substantial complaint sites is appropriate, provided it is not allowed to dominate the overall program, and primary emphasis continues to be placed on speed related black spots. The recent addition of expert traffic intelligence analysis, adapting some of the techniques developed for crime intelligence analysis, is an interesting innovation, which has considerable potential. It should perhaps be evaluated after a one to two year period. As shown in Table 2, the extent of speed camera operations, as measured by the number of kerbside hours of operation and number of Traffic Infringement Notices issued per licensed driver is the highest in Australia (Hendrie and Ryan, 1995). The level of operations should therefore be considered as entirely appropriate, although further reductions in road trauma could be expected, if additional kerbside hours and TINs were achieved. This is based on the finding in Victoria that the reduction in casualty crashes was related to the number of TINs issued. Table 2 The Extent of Speed Camera Operations in Victoria and South Australia, 1993 State South Australia Victoria Number of TINs/year (1993) 178,000 639,000 No of TINs issued per population 18-79 yrs, p.a. * 0.16 0.15 Camera Hours/year (1993) 25,211 63,340 Annual Camera Hours per 100,000 population** 1,725 1,420 * Source: Review of Road Safety Practices in Australia and Recommendataions for Western Australia, D. Hendrie and A. Ryan (1995) ** Source: The Strategic Role of Enhanced Enforcement in the NSW Road Safety Strategy, R. Taylor. It should be noted that Victorian research has found that the actual detection and punishment of speeding drivers through the issue of TINs is the key mechanism in the Victorian speed enforcement program. As outlined in Appendix A, this effect is against the background of the Victorian demerit point system through which drivers accumulate points for all speeding offences (camera-detected or otherwise) and hence face the sanction of licence loss if multiple offences are committed. The threat of licence loss is considered to be an important element of the specific deterrence of speeding in Victoria. Hence, the overall deterrent effect of the speed camera program is likely to be severely affected by the fact that in South Australia the demerit points system does not apply to offences detected by speed cameras. Under the present system, these Traffic Infringement Notices for speeding can be regarded by offenders as “just another cost of motoring”. Recommendation 2: That consideration be given to extending the demerit points system to speed camera offences because of its likely deterrent effect, particularly for habitual offenders. 16 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE It should also be noted that Victorian speed camera operations are covert in nature, the cameras being placed inside unmarked parked cars without any warning signs before or after the camera site. While Cameron et al (1995) have concluded that the principal mechanism through which the Victorian speed camera program achieves its effects is specific deterrence (ie. the actual detection and punishment of speeding drivers), it does not follow that a program based on visible speed cameras will achieve the same crash reduction effects across broad areas, even if that program detects a commensurate level of speeding drivers. Research on crash reductions due to speed cameras in NSW, where the Police are required to operate the cameras from marked cars accompanied by signs, has only been able to show effects at the camera sites specifically (Graham 1993). In South Australia, the speed camera operations are not quite as covert as in Victoria but less visible than those in N.S.W. For example, the use of signs in South Australia after (but not before as is the case in N.S.W.) a motorist has passed a speed camera seems to be a good idea. Also while the cars for the camera operator in South Australia originally had Government number plates and were generally of the same make/model, since speed camera operations have been taken over by the Police Security Services Division, a range of different makes/models of vehicles are used and they have ordinary number plates. The operating procedures for the speed cameras among “General Prohibitions” state that they should “not (be) hidden behind bushes, buildings or any other obstacles, except when occupational health and safety dictates a location cannot be worked any other way, e.g. Mount Barker Road below the freeway”. It may be desirable for this probhibition to be lifted. Recommendation 3: That South Australia considers a change in the method of operation which would not prohibit speed cameras from being hidden, while maintaining the current relatively high level of TINs issued for speeding offences detected by cameras. The initiative to purchase 100 laser speed detectors, bringing the total to 133 units is to be commended, and it is likely that the decision to breath test every speeding offender will have benefits for both control of speeding and drink-driving. It is appropriate that this decision be given widescale publicity, as is planned, and then strictly enforced. The consultants are not aware of any definitive evaluation in Australia of the effect on casualty crashes of this method of operation and recommend that an evaluation of this be undertaken. It may be appropriate for such an evaluation to be funded nationally because its results would be of national significance. Publicity to support the speed control program is another important element of the overall deterrent system and is discussed in Section 3.6. Recommendation 4: That an evaluation be undertaken of the effect on casualty crashes of the South Australian laser speed detector initiative, where every speed offender is to be breath tested. 3.5 Drink Driving Control Program As shown in Table 3, the total number of random breath tests in South Australia progressively increased from its introduction in 1981 until 1988/89, but has exceeded that total only once (in 1990/91) and has declined in recent years. Similarly the total metropolitan tests peaked in 1987/88 and the total country tests in 1989/90. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 17 Table 3 Number of Random Breath Tests in South Australia, 1981/82 to 1995/96 Year 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 Adelaide Country SA Total 46045 11303 57348 82555 16069 98264 123953 14867 138820 120477 15361 135838 116699 18494 135193 124583 20825 145408 251571 30504 282075 231669 55530 287199 219592 62105 281697 242396 51715 294111 222926 49865 272791 199809 49020 248829 187987 48178 236165 179969 50376 230345 174513 53620 228133 Note: In Tables 3, 4 and 5 the numbers for South Australia do not include drivers breath tested after being detected for speeding using laser speed detectors or stopped for speeding cautions. Table 4 below compares the number of RBT tests per 100 licensed drivers in South Australia and Victoria since 1989. It can be seen that in 1989 and 1990 the rates of testing per licensed driver in S.A. were greater than in Victoria, but since 1989 those in S.A. have fallen by 24% while those in Victoria have risen by 260%. As shown in Table 4, the number of RBT tests in S.A. would need to be increased about 2.5 times to reach current rates in Victoria or nearly double to reach the 1992 Victorian rates. Table 4 Number of RBT Tests per 100 Licenced Drivers, Victoria and South Australia, 1989-1995 Number of Tests Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 SA 265,345 289,047 290,921 266,081 240,232 241,827 220,031 VIC 518,431 920,523 1,112,669 1,193,311 1,521,292 1,795,985 1,671,278 Number of tests per 100 licensed drivers SA VIC 29.6 16.0 31.8 25.3 30.8 38.9 28.2 41.6 25.4 46.4 25.1 57.0 22.6 57.6 Source : Office of Road Safety, S.A., Parliamentary Report on Operation and Effectiveness of RBT. In order to obtain a comparison between the extent of random breath testing in Adelaide and Melbourne and between the rest of South Australia and the rest of Victoria, Table 5 has been prepared. The rates have been calculated using the populations of both capital cities and of the rest of the State, because comparable figures for licensed drivers are not readily available. It can be seen that the trends are similar to those for the whole State comparisons, with the Adelaide rate having dropped to approximately half the Melbourne rate and the rest of South Australia rate to less than 30% of the rest of Victoria rate. 18 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Table 5 Number of RBT Tests per 100 population, 1989/90 to 1994/95 Year 1989/90 1990/91 1991/2 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 Adelaide 21.0 22.9 20.9 18.7 17.5 16.7 Melbourne 14.3 25.8 26.0 29.4 36.4 34.0 Rest of SA 16.0 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.8 Rest of VIC 19.9 21.8 28.0 31.1 37.3 45.0 Population figures as at 30 June from ABS Demography Statistics Quaterly Publication. Cat #3101.0 Based on the experience in Melbourne that the reduction in serious casualty crashes in high alcohol hours (essentially night-time) is related to the number of “bus based” random breath tests, it could be expected that doubling the number of random breath tests in Adelaide, primarily through the use of highly visible buses, is likely to reduce the number of serious casualty crashes considerably. If the Melbourne relationships were to hold for Adelaide, a reduction in serious casualty crashes during high alcohol hours of about 10% could be expected. It is therefore recommended that all possible efforts be made to increase the number of random breath tests to approximately double present levels of RBT in Adelaide. It is acknowledged that this would be a major task, given the many other duties expected of the South Australia Police and the limited resources. However it has been calculated in Victoria that the total benefits (in terms of reduced cost of crashes) are many times greater than the actual costs (in terms of police time and equipment). Recommendation 5: That all possible efforts be made to increase the number of random breath tests in Adelaide to about double present levels, preferably by increased use of highly visible bus based testing. The recent practice of undertaking very high profile large scale RBT operations in the Adelaide metropolitan area at times when a larger than usual level of drink driving is expected, is likely to be highly effective both as a specific deterrent and as a general deterrent. In order to maintain this general deterrence, it is of course, necessary that such operations are repeated at unpredictable times, even if the operations are of a smaller size or shorter overall duration than the several major operations staged since December 1995. The practice of undertaking high profile random breath testing operations associated with large sporting events such as football, cricket, racing, etc. is also likely to have an important general deterrent effect, particularly if the booze buses are seen (setting up or cruising) when people are going to these events. The intention to undertake these activities should be given wide publicity before the event. The results of increased random breath testing in rural S.A. are a little more difficult to predict because the mechanism for reduction of serious casualty crashes during high alcohol hours in Victoria outside Melbourne are not fully understood. Furthermore, there are greater differences between rural S.A. and rural Victoria than between Adelaide and Melbourne. Nevertheless it is likely that an increase in random breath testing in country cities and towns will be effective in reducing serious casualty crashes, particularly in view of the South Australian testing rates being less than one third of the Victorian rate. The S.A. rural enforcement and education strategy which is being developed will be important in this matter. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 19 While it is probably beyond the scope of this report to specify how the increased number of random breath tests should be achieved the following could be considered: • setting of increased targets for each district • increased use of the booze buses, particularly in metropolitan Adelaide • joint operations between neighbouring stations in country areas, possibly supported by additional traffic staff from Adelaide. In Victoria the cost of overtime, meals and accommodation for additional random breath testing by metropolitan based police in country areas has been funded by the Transport Accident Commission, which recognised the benefits in terms of reduced claims which would result. In NSW such activities have been funded by the Roads and Traffic Authority. Recommendation 6: That random breath testing outside Adelaide be increased and supported by appropriate publicity in accordance with the rural safety strategy currently being developed in South Australia. The question has been asked as to whether the times of operation of random breath testing are appropriate given the known distribution of drink driving throughout the week. An exploratory analysis has been conducted in Appendix B. Figure 10, taken from Appendix B, compares the total number of random breath tests by hour of the week with the number of driver and motorcyclist casualties with known BAC exceeding 0.05g/100 ml. It shows that the allocation of RBT operations by time of week generally matches the incidence of drink driving crashes, except that more tests could be carried out during the “build up” periods 2.00 to 8.00 p.m. on Saturday afternoons, 4.00 to 8.00 p.m. on Thursdays, 2.00-4.00 p.m. on Fridays and during the high alcohol crash periods, 10.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m. on Friday “nights”, 10.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m. on Saturday “nights” and perhaps 6.00 p.m. to 10.00 p.m. on Sundays. 25000 Monday Sunday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 70 Number of Tests 50 15000 40 30 10000 20 5000 10 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 6am-8am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 0 6am-8am 0 Hours of the Day No. of Tests No. of Drivers & Riders > 0.05 Figure 10 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1995/96) with the number of drivers and motorcyclists with known BAC>0.05g/100ml (1990-94), South Australia 20 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Number of Drivers and Riders with BAC > 0.05 60 20000 Figure B2 in Appendix B also shows the very high percentage of drivers and motorcyclist casualties with a known BAC exceeding 0.05g/100 ml in the hours after midnight. The decision on how far into the early morning hours the RBT operations should continue is a matter of judgement. It may be that after 2.00-4.00 a.m., patrol operations are preferred, because deterrence is unlikely to be as effective with drivers at the high BAC levels generally found at that time. However it is important that a situation does not exist where it is common knowledge among drinkers that “the RBT operations always cease at 2.00 a.m.” Recommendation 7: That use continue to be made of the high quality data available at both the Office of Road Safety and the Traffic Intelligence Section to plan and monitor that RBT operations are undertaken at times which reflect the incidence of alcohol related crashes. 3.6 Publicity In recent years, South Australia has had a number of major road safety campaigns with drinkdriving and speeding themes. The “You’ll be sorry” campaign, aimed at increasing the perceived risk of detection of drink-drivers and the likely consequences, was used from December 1993 to June 1995. A new campaign with the slogan “Drink Drive: What’ll it be?” was introduced in late 1995 and has been used in conjunction with high Police activity during Christmas and Easter. A speeding-related campaign with the slogan “Speeding - Think about the impact” was launched in late April 1995. The development of the television campaigns has in general terms adopted the approach used by several other Australian States (and by Victoria up to 1989) which is based on some of the published literature in psychology and communications theory. Each of these campaigns was based on television advertisements, some with informative, nonemotive messages, and six different versions with the same theme. Radio advertisements, with the same messages as television, billboards and other media have been used to support the television advertisements. The monthly television TARPs, by theme of the message, achieved in Adelaide during the period 1993 to June 1996 are shown in Figure 11. 2500 Drink-Driving School Crossing Speed Bicycle 2000 TARPs 1500 1000 500 May-96 Mar-96 Jan-96 Nov-95 Sep-95 Jul-95 May-95 Mar-95 Jan-95 Nov-94 Sep-94 Jul-94 May-94 Mar-94 Jan-94 Nov-93 Sep-93 Jul-93 May-93 Mar-93 Jan-93 0 Month Figure 11 South Australian Road Safety Television Advertising: TARPs per month by theme in Adelaide, Jan 1993-June 1996 ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 21 Table 6 shows a comparison of the total television TARPs achieved by road safety advertising in Adelaide and Melbourne, respectively, during 1993-95. It can be seen that the intensity of road safety advertising in Adelaide was, on average, less than half that in Melbourne during the period. Table 6 Television TARPs for Road Safety Advertising in Adelaide and Melbourne, 1993-1995 1993 1994 1995 TOTAL Adelaide Melbourne 2881 4877 6618 14376 11834 7656 11617 31107 Adelaide /Melbourne 24% 64% 57% 46% In summary, there are three major differences in road safety publicity practice in South Australia compared with Victoria. The first is the use of advertisements generally with an informative style compared with the graphic, more emotive style principally used by the TAC in Victoria. The second is the relatively large number of different television advertisements used (around six per theme) compared with Victoria (a total of 4-5 different advertisements per year, representing 1-3 advertisements per theme in a year; see section 2.5). The third is, apparently, the lower level of intensity of all television advertising (and even lower level per advertisement, given their larger number) in South Australia compared with Victoria. Research at the Monash University Accident Research Centre has shown that levels of intensity of TAC advertisements, with themes supporting enforcement aimed at drink-driving and speeding, can be linked with road trauma reductions. Thus it is recommended that South Australia increase the exposure levels of their road safety advertising with these themes to levels commensurate with Victoria that is approximately double the present levels. Furthermore, to maximise the exposure of each advertisement it would be desirable to make use of no more than 4-5 different advertisements each year. Recommendation 8: That resources be allocated to double the exposure of television advertisements, which support the speed camera and random breath testing programs. It is possible that the style and content of the TAC television advertisements, which support speed camera or RBT enforcement, is also important to their effectiveness at the levels of exposure used in Victoria. Hence, as part of an expansion of publicity to support enforcement, it may be appropriate to undertake research to investigate the relative effectiveness of a TACstyle advertisement and an existing advertisement, when exposed at levels of intensity as recommended above. Recommendation 9: That research be undertaken to investigate the relative effectiveness of a TAC style advertisement (graphic and highly emotive), which supports speed camera or RBT enforcement and an existing South Australian advertisement, when exposed at approximately the same levels, say 800 TARPs per month, under similar conditions of enforcement. The TAC television advertisements have been carefully developed through extensive concept development research, involving group discussion research of initially a relatively large number of concepts, and then re-testing of the selected concepts as they are further developed. 22 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE This type of developmental research is considered to be an important factor influencing the effectiveness of TAC-style advertising. Recommendation 10: That the development of advertisements in South Australia be based on testing and re-testing of a range of concepts with members of the target groups, through group discussion research to ensure that messages are relevant to them and that they are positively received. 3.7 Additional Resources Required Some of the recommendations made in this chapter will require little or no additional resources for their implementation. One, namely, the extension of the demerit point system to speed camera offences will presumably need changes in legislation and will also require additional Police time in handling of the paperwork which identifies the offender. This is difficult to quantify but the information could be obtained from the Victoria Police if a decision is made to proceed with this important recommendation. The main additional resources which would be required are discussed below. Doubling of the number of random breath tests in metropolitan Adelaide would require an additional 175,000 random breath tests. The S.A. Police has advised that the additional equipment for this and also to increase the number of random breath tests in rural areas by an additional 50,000 tests would cost $0.89 million. The additional annual recurrent costs for both these tasks have been estimated as $0.89 million. Information supplied by the Office of Road Safety showed that during 1995 approximately $0.8 million was spent on placement of television advertisements relating to drink driving and speeding. Doubling this expenditure on placement would be expected to cost approximately another $0.8 million p.a. In order to maintain the existing ratio between television, radio and outdoor, there would be a need to increase the expenditure on the latter two media, but this has not been quantified here. The cost of the recommended research could probably be partially covered by producing somewhat fewer different television advertisements. The costs of implementing the rural enforcement and education strategy directed at speeding and drink driving would need to be costed separately when that strategy is fully developed. In summary, the total cost of implementing the two most expensive recommendations of doubling RBT in Adelaide and in rural S.A., together with the doubling of expenditure on publicity supporting RBT and speed cameras is approximately $1.69 million per annum, plus a single expenditure of $0.89 million for equipment. Based on the results obtained in Victoria, the savings in costs of crashes and the associated road trauma could be as high as 20 times the expenditure, but because South Australia is starting from a much better road safety situation than Victoria was in 1989, with many of the measures already partially implemented, a figure of ten times the expenditure may be a more realistic expectation. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 23 REFERENCES Australian Bureau of Statistics (1993) Survey of Motor Vehicle Use Australia, Catalogue No. 9208.0 Cameron, M.H., Haworth, N., Oxley, J., Newstead, S. & Le, T. (1993) Evaluation of Transport Accident Commission road safety television advertising, Monash University Accident Research Centre, Report No. 52. Cameron, M.H. & Newstead, S.V. (1993) ‘Modelling of some major factors influencing road trauma trends in Victoria 1989-92’, Paper presented at Road Safety Researchers’ Conference, Adelaide. Cameron, M.H., Newstead, S.V. & Gantzer, S. (1995) ‘Effects of enforcement and supporting publicity programs in Victoria, Australia’. Proceedings of the International Conference on Road Safety in Europe and Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP), Prague, The Czech Republic, September, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute. Cameron, M., Newstead, S. & Vulcan, P. (1994) ‘Analysis of reductions in Victorian road casualties, 1989 to 1992’, Proceedings 17th ARRB Conference, Part 5, pp 165-182. Cameron, M.H., Vulcan, A.P., Finch, C.F. & Newstead, S.V. (1994b) ‘Mandatory bicycle helmet use following a decade of helmet promotion in Victoria, Australia - an evaluation’, Accident Analysis & Prevention, 26(3), pp325-337. Forsyth, I. & Ogden, E.J.D. (1993) ‘Marketing traffic safety as a consumer product in Victoria, Australia’, Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety, T92, pp 1437-1442. Graham, A. (1993) Evaluation of speed camera operations: Preliminary accident analysis, Internal report, Road Safety Bureau, Roads and Traffic Authority, New South Wales. Harper, G. (1991) TAC Road Safety Campaign. An entry into the AFA Advertising Effectiveness Awards, Grey Advertising, Melbourne. Harper, G. (1993) Marketing Road Safety 1991/92, An entry into the 1993 AFA Effectiveness Awards, Grey Advertising, Melbourne. Hendri, D. & Ryan, G.A. (1995) Review of road safety practices in Australia and recommendations for Western Australia, Road Accident Prevention Research Unit, University of Western Australia, Report No. RR41. Office of Road Safety, S.A. (1996) Parliamentary report on operation and effectiveness of RBT, Department of Transport, South Australia. Road Safety Committee (1994) Inquiry into the Demerit Point System, Parliament of Victoria. Sliogeris, J. (1992) 110 km per hour speed limit. Evaluation of road safety effects, VicRoads, Road Safety Division, Report GR 92-8. South Australian Road Safety Consultative Council (1995) Road Safety SA. A strategic plan for road safety in South Australia till the year 2000, Government of South Australia. 24 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Taylor, R. (1994) ‘The strategic role of enhanced enforcement in the NSW Road Safety Strategy’, Proceedings National Road Safety Research and Enforcement Conference, Fremantle, Western Australia, 13-14 November, pp19-28. Vulcan, A.P. (1993) ‘The road toll in Victoria - An objective analysis’, Proceedings of the Road Safety Forum, Melbourne. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 25 APPENDIX A DEMERIT POINTS FOR SPEED CAMERA OFFENCES One of the important elements of the speed control program was the extension of the demerit point system to cover speed camera offences. In 1985, the time of the introduction of speed cameras in Victoria, it was decided that demerit points should not apply to camera based offences and, on equity grounds, they would not apply to other speed offences of less than 30 km/h over the limit. The same decision was also applied to red light cameras. This decision was applied administratively and had the consequence of making the demerit point scheme virtually ineffective (Road Safety Committee, 1994). In late 1989, as part of the package of measures related to the purchase of the new speed cameras and the setting up of the traffic camera office, it was decided to restore the application of demerit points to speed camera offences (and red light camera offences). In July 1993, the Victorian Parliamentary Road Safety Committee began an inquiry into the demerit points scheme. In its report, dated November 1994, it concluded that the demerit points for speed camera offences should remain and at their present levels. These are the same as for other speeding offences, agreed nationally, namely: Offence Exceeding speed limit by 15 km/h or less Exceeding speed limit by 15-30 km/h Exceeding speed limit by 30-45 km/h Exceeding speed limit by 45 km/h or more Points 1 3 4 6 The Road Safety Committee inquiry reported that as at September 1993, only about 55% of all infringements detected by the Traffic Camera Office resulted in issuing of a Traffic Infringement Notice (TIN) and of that number only about 70% of drivers have their demerit points correctly allocated, (i.e. about 38% of detected infringements). Despite the large number of offences for which demerit points were not successfully allocated, there was a massive increase in the number of drivers reaching 12 demerit points from about 300 in June 1990 to about 9,500 in March 1993. Over the same period the proportion of drivers with one or more demerit points increased from 6% to 32%, i.e. to about 1 million drivers (Road Safety Committee, 1994). Analysis by VicRoads of a sample of drivers reaching 12 points found that about 75% of their offences were for speeding. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 27 APPENDIX B EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS B.1 Appropriate Times for Random Breath Testing Operations It is desirable that drivers perceive there is a reasonable chance of being tested at an RBT station at any time after drinking. This means that RBT operations should be highly visible in the hours when drivers are on their way out to drink and continue to be so while there are relatively large numbers of drink drivers about. Figure B1 shows the number of random breath tests for each two hour period of the week for 1995/96 (Compiled from data generously provided by the Traffic Intelligence Office, S.A. Police - Mr. Ross McColl.), together with the number of drivers and motorcyclists involved in crashes with a known BAC > 0.05, by hour of the week. (Compiled from data generously provided by the Office of Road Safety, S.A. Dept of Transport - Mr. Fred Tiong.) Figure B2 shows the same information about random breath tests in 1995/96, but with the percentage of drivers and motorcyclists with a known BAC greater than 0.05. 25000 Monday Sunday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 70 Number of Tests 50 15000 40 30 10000 20 5000 Number of Drivers and Riders with BAC > 0.05 60 20000 10 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 6am-8am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 0 6am-8am 0 Hours of the Day No. of Tests No. of Drivers & Riders > 0.05 Figure B1 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1995/96) with the number of drivers and motorcyclists involved in crashes with known BAC>0.05g/100ml (1990-94), South Australia ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 29 90.0% 25000 Sunday Tuesday Monday Wednesday Thursday Saturday Friday 80.0% 20000 Number of Tests 60.0% 15000 50.0% 40.0% 10000 30.0% Percentage of Driver and Riders with BAC > 0.05 70.0% 20.0% 5000 10.0% 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am 8pm- 10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am- 10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am 8pm- 10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm MN-2am 0.0% 4am-6am 0 Hours of the Day No. of Tests % Drivers & Rriders > 0.05 Figure B2 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1995/96) with the percentage of drivers and motorcyclists involved in crashes with known BAC>0.05g/100ml (1990-84), South Australia Based on Figure B1, it seems that the allocation of RBT operations by time of week generally matches the incidence of drink driving crashes, except that more tests could be carried out during the “build up” periods, 2.00 p.m. to 8.00 p.m. on Saturday afternoons, 4.00-8.00 p.m. on Thursdays, 2.00-4.00 p.m. on Fridays and during the high alcohol crash periods, 10.00 p.m. to a.m. on Friday nights, 10.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m. on Saturday nights, 10.00 p.m. to 2.00 a.m. on Thursday nights and perhaps 6.00 p.m. to 10.00 p.m. on Sundays. The decision on how far into the early morning hours the RBT operations should continue is a matter of judgement. It may be that after 2.00-4.00 a.m., patrol operations are preferred, because deterrence is unlikely to be as effective with drivers at the high BAC levels generally found at that time. However it is important that a situation does not exist where it is common knowledge among drinkers that “the RBT operations always cease at 2.00 a.m.” Comparison of Figure B1 with similar data on random breath testing operations for 1992/93, 1993/94 and 1994/95 which are given in Appendix C show that the pattern of these operations has been similar for the past four years, although there has been a small, but appropriate shift of some operations from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to Friday nights. Figure B2 reinforces the fact that the percentage of drivers with an illegal BAC is very high from about 9.00 p.m. to 5.00 a.m. on most nights, but the scheduling of random breath testing should probably be based on the number of drivers with an illegal BAC rather than the percentage is shown in Figure B1. It has been suggested that Figures B1 and B2 could be re-plotted using the total number of hours of random breath testing operation for each two hour period of the week rather than the total number of random breath tests, because the latter depends not only on the level of police RBT activity but also on the number of motorists on the road at any given time. This is a good idea and could be done using the excellent data available at the Traffic Intelligence Office. It was however not possible to obtain the data in the form required for this in the timeframe for this report. The primary purpose of presenting these charts in Figures B1 30 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE and B2 was to illustrate how the data available can be presented to assist in planning and optimising RBT operations. If such additional charts are prepared, it would probably be desirable for them to be compiled separately for Adelaide and rural South Australia, or even separately for each Region. B.2 Blood Alcohol Content of Drivers and Motorcyclists Killed In Figure 4 of Section 1.3 it was shown that the percentage of drivers and riders killed with a BAC greater than 0.05g/100 ml in South Australia has been greater than that in Victoria in each year since 1984. This section examines the extent of the problem in Adelaide and in rural South Australia. The Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) for drivers and motorcyclists killed and tested, has been provided by the Traffic Intelligence Service, South Australia Police for Adelaide and country S.A. separately, by financial years. The results in Figure B3, show that the main problem in recent years has been in country S.A., but with some improvement in the last two years. 70% Adelaide Country SA 60% South Australian Total 40% with BAC >0.05 Percentage of Drivers and Motorcyclists 50% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 Year Figure B3 Percentage of drivers and motorcyclists with BAC > 0.05g/100ml within South Australia, 1986/87 - 1995/96 B.3 High and Low Alcohol Hours in South Australia In Section 2, it was explained that it has been found useful for purposes of analysis in Victoria to separate casualty crashes into high alcohol hours and low alcohol hours. An attempt has been made to do the same for South Australia. Data on blood alcohol content, where known, of drivers involved in casualty crashes from 1990 to 1994 was supplied by the Office of Road Safety. This is summarised in Table B1. As shown in Table B2, if high alcohol hours are defined as those where more than 10% of drivers with a known BAC exceed 0.05, then the high alcohol hours are: Sunday 5.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m. (Monday) Monday 5.00 p.m. to 5.00 a.m. (Tuesday) Victoria [4.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m.] [6.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m.] ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 31 Tuesday 6.00 p.m. to 4.00 a.m. (Wednesday) Wednesday 7.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m. (Thursday) Thursday 6.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m. (Friday) Friday 6.00 p.m. to 7.00 a.m. (Saturday) Saturday 3.00 p.m. to 9.00 a.m. (Sunday) [6.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m.] [6.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m.] [6.00 p.m. to 6.00 a.m.] [4.00 p.m. to 8.00 a.m.] [2.00 p.m. to 10 a.m.] These are similar but not quite the same as those used in Victoria which are shown in [square brackets] above. 32 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Table B1 Percentage of Driver and Motorcyclist Casualties with Known BAC, South Australia, 1990-1994 One Hour blocks DOW Sunday 12-1am 1-2am 2-3am 3-4am 4-5am 5-6am 6-7am 7-8am 8-9am 9-10am 10-11am 11-12pm 12-1pm 1-2pm 2-3pm 3-4pm 4-5pm 5-6pm 6-7pm 7-8pm 8-9pm 9-10pm 10-11pm 65.7% 63.5% 60.2% 77.0% 69.0% 70.0% 76.6% 67.4% 53.7% 56.1% 58.4% 54.0% 63.9% 64.1% 60.8% 57.8% 59.4% 58.5% 54.9% 56.7% 55.2% 54.3% 55.7% 11-12am 54.8% Monday 72.7% 33.3% 64.0% 62.5% 50.0% 66.7% 59.2% 45.4% 27.5% 39.7% 43.0% 46.9% 43.5% 46.5% 38.5% 41.7% 49.0% 37.2% 54.0% 61.2% 67.4% 46.7% 67.9% 75.6% Tuesday 57.1% 54.5% 62.5% 72.7% 75.0% 64.3% 47.2% 41.8% 30.1% 38.5% 41.4% 43.5% 48.3% 42.2% 50.9% 42.6% 47.1% 39.4% 50.7% 55.4% 55.8% 56.6% 56.9% 56.7% Wednesday 60.4% 57.7% 60.0% 68.8% 58.3% 50.0% 50.5% 44.6% 36.7% 42.7% 45.5% 41.2% 48.9% 36.3% 46.4% 41.0% 44.7% 46.0% 56.9% 58.8% 66.3% 55.7% 55.8% 60.0% Thursday 55.9% 80.8% 63.9% 57.1% 66.7% 71.4% 55.1% 46.2% 30.9% 35.7% 48.1% 54.2% 40.7% 47.9% 42.5% 41.3% 44.5% 39.5% 51.8% 52.2% 52.9% 70.1% 50.6% 59.5% Friday 57.6% 65.5% 58.5% 70.0% 60.6% 58.1% 58.0% 48.1% 34.0% 40.9% 42.9% 46.5% 45.7% 51.8% 46.1% 39.8% 43.2% 47.4% 56.3% 62.6% 61.0% 62.2% 60.3% 59.3% Saturday 65.3% 63.2% 59.8% 76.4% 70.9% 74.4% 60.0% 48.2% 46.6% 54.8% 58.3% 51.1% 55.3% 50.7% 55.9% 51.8% 48.5% 58.7% 61.3% 59.9% 65.4% 67.7% 67.1% 59.3% Table B2 Percentage of Driver and Motorcyclist Casualties with BAC over 0.05g/100ml, South Australia, 1990-1994 One Hour blocks DOW 12-1am 1-2am 2-3am 3-4am 4-5am 5-6am 6-7am 7-8am 8-9am 60.0% 62.9% 30.6% 31.0% 11.1% 1.7% 4.8% 1.3% 5.9% 4.2% 2.9% 3.7% 9.8% 18.8% 29.4% 24.7% 43.8% 39.2% 28.2% 35.3% 40.0% 27.8% 2.4% 2.3% 3.6% 1.6% 2.9% 0.0% 4.4% 6.3% 1.4% 4.3% 6.0% 11.8% 18.1% 18.9% 14.5% 32.1% 30.2% 38.7% 5.6% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.3% 3.5% 4.9% 6.8% 6.5% 17.5% 26.4% 17.0% 29.8% 34.1% 44.1% Sunday 51.1% 60.6% 66.1% 64.9% Monday 33.3% 57.1% 62.5% 40.0% Tuesday 45.8% 41.7% 70.0% 50.0% 33.3% 9-10am 10-11am 11-12pm 12-1pm 1-2pm 2-3pm 3-4pm 4-5pm 5-6pm 6-7pm 7-8pm 8-9pm 9-10pm 10-11pm 11-12am Wednesday 55.2% 40.0% 50.0% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 3.6% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.9% 1.4% 3.8% 6.0% 3.8% 9.0% 8.9% 16.4% 35.4% 32.2% 37.5% 59.3% Thursday 39.4% 52.4% 56.5% 50.0% 43.8% 24.0% 7.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 6.2% 2.2% 3.0% 6.9% 9.6% 16.4% 13.7% 15.1% 26.5% 36.4% 54.5% Friday 63.3% 71.1% 62.5% 50.0% 55.0% 44.4% 9.2% 7.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.9% 3.4% 4.7% 5.2% 4.7% 8.3% 14.1% 18.3% 28.7% 39.2% 37.5% 45.0% Saturday 60.4% 61.2% 81.6% 69.1% 71.8% 68.8% 35.7% 7.4% 7.3% 5.4% 2.6% 0.8% 6.3% 1.8% 9.2% 12.2% 14.6% 17.2% 26.9% 35.9% 35.6% 46.0% 46.8% 47.1% Shaded cells denote High Alcohol Hours (HAH) Percentages based on those with known BAC. During these hours, an average of 40% of drivers with known BAC exceed 0.05 and during the remaining hours of the week (low alcohol hours) only 4 % of drivers with a known BAC exceed 0.05. Figure B4 shows the 12 month moving total of serious crashes in Adelaide separately for high alcohol hours and low alcohol hours. There was a progressive reduction in high alcohol hour serious crashes between 1987 and 1992, with little progress since then. Similarly for low alcohol hours there have been progressive reductions from late 1990 to mid-1995, but with the greater slope since early 1991. 900 Low Alcohol Hours 800 High Alcohol Hours Number of Crashes 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Jun-95 Mar-95 Dec-94 Sep-94 Jun-94 Mar-94 Dec-93 Sep-93 Jun-93 Mar-93 Dec-92 Sep-92 Jun-92 Mar-92 Dec-91 Sep-91 Jun-91 Mar-91 Dec-90 Sep-90 Jun-90 Mar-90 Dec-89 Sep-89 Jun-89 Mar-89 Dec-88 Sep-88 Jun-88 Mar-88 Dec-87 Sep-87 Jun-87 Mar-87 Dec-86 Sep-86 Jun-86 Mar-86 Dec-85 Sep-85 Jun-85 Mar-85 Dec-84 Sep-84 Jun-84 Mar-84 Dec-83 0 Year Ending Figure B4 12 month moving total of number of serious crashes in Adelaide Statistical Division by High and Low Alcohol Hours, Jan 1983 - June 1995 Figure B5 shows the same data for the rest of South Australia. In this case, the main reductions in both high alcohol hour and low alcohol hour serious crashes occurred from about December 1990 to mid 1993, although the low alcohol hour crashes had a further reduction in the year commencing June 1994. Hours January 1983 to June 1995 700 Low Alcohol Hours High Alcohol Hours 600 Number of Crashes 500 400 300 200 100 Jun-95 Mar-95 Dec-94 Sep-94 Jun-94 Mar-94 Dec-93 Sep-93 Jun-93 Mar-93 Dec-92 Sep-92 Jun-92 Mar-92 Dec-91 Sep-91 Jun-91 Mar-91 Dec-90 Sep-90 Jun-90 Mar-90 Dec-89 Sep-89 Jun-89 Mar-89 Dec-88 Sep-88 Jun-88 Mar-88 Dec-87 Sep-87 Jun-87 Mar-87 Dec-86 Sep-86 Jun-86 Mar-86 Dec-85 Sep-85 Jun-85 Mar-85 Dec-84 Sep-84 Jun-84 Mar-84 Dec-83 0 Year Ending Figure B5 12 month moving total of number of serious casualty crashes in the rest of South Australia by High and Low Alcohol Hours, Jan 1983 - June 1995 ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 35 In general terms, there have been considerable reductions in all four categories of serious crashes since 1986, with the largest reductions during 1991 and 1992, and no further reductions in high alcohol hour serious crashes in either Adelaide or rest of state after that. The low alcohol hour serious crashes have continued to decrease in the 2½years up to June 1995. The extent to which the downturn in the economy contributed to the reductions observed during 1991 and 1992 is difficult to determine other than by modelling. Such modelling of downward trends may be possible in a similar way as was done in Victoria, to take account of various factors such as number of random breath tests, number of speed camera infringement notices, level of supporting publicity, the effect of changes in the economy and any other relevant factors. However, this is a complex and expensive exercise which may only be warranted as part of a major evaluation of the effect of various measures. 36 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE APPENDIX C RANDOM BREATH TESTING OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA 25000 Monday Sunday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Saturday Friday 70 60 Number of Tests 50 15000 40 30 10000 20 5000 Number of Drivers and Riders with BAC > 0.05 20000 10 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 6am-8am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 0 6am-8am 0 Hours of the Day No of Tests No. of Drivers & Riders > 0.05 Figure C1 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1992/93) with the number of drivers and riders with known BAC > 0.05 (1990-94) 70 25000 Monday Sunday Wednesday Tuesday Thursday Saturday Friday 60 15000 40 30 10000 20 5000 10 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 6am-8am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm 0 MN-2am 0 6am-8am Number of Tests 50 Number of Drivers and Riders with BAC > 0.05 20000 Hours of the Day No. of Tests No. of Drivers & Riders > 0.05 Figure C2 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1993/94) with the number of drivers and riders with known BAC > 0.05 (1990-94) ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 37 25000 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 70 60 Number of Tests 50 15000 40 30 10000 20 5000 Number of Drivers and Riders with BAC > 0.05 20000 10 6pm-8pm Noon-2pm MN-2am 6am-8am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 6am-8am Noon-2pm MN-2am Noon-2pm MN-2am 6pm-8pm 0 6am-8am 0 Hours of the Day No. of Tests No. of Drivers & Riders > 0.05 Figure C3 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1994/95) with the number of drivers and riders with known BAC > 0.05 (1990-94) 25000 Monday Sunday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 90.0% 80.0% 20000 Number of Tests 60.0% 15000 50.0% 40.0% 10000 30.0% Percentage of Driver and Riders with BAC > 0.05 70.0% 20.0% 5000 10.0% 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 8am10am 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 8am10am 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 10am Noon-2pm 8am- 4am-6am 8pm- 10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 8am10am 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am 8pm10pm MN-2am 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm 8am10am Noon-2pm MN-2am 0.0% 4am-6am 0 Hours of the Day No of Tests % Drivers & Rriders > 0.05 Figure C4 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1992/93) with the percentage of drivers and riders with known BAC > 0.05 (1990-94) 38 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE MN-2am No. of Tests 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 8am10am 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm 20000 15000 60.0% 50.0% 10000 40.0% 30.0% 5000 0 20000 15000 60.0% 50.0% 10000 40.0% 30.0% 5000 0 ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA Percentage of Driver and Riders with BAC > 0.05 Saturday Percentage of Driver and Riders with BAC > 0.05 Friday Noon-2pm 8am10am Noon-2pm Friday 8am10am 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Thursday Noon-2pm 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 10am 8am- 4am-6am Thursday 8am10am 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm Wednesday 10am MN-2am 10pm 8pm- 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 10am 8am- 4am-6am Wednesday 8am- 4am-6am MN-2am 10pm 8pm- 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm Tuesday 8am- No. of Tests 10am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 8am10am 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 8am10am 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Tuesday 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm Monday 8am10am 8am10am Noon-2pm Monday 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Sunday Noon-2pm MN-2am 4am-6am Number of Tests Sunday 8am10am 4am-6am MN-2am 8pm10pm 4pm-6pm Noon-2pm 25000 8am10am 4am-6am Number of Tests 25000 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Hours of the Day % Drivers & Rriders > 0.05 Figure C5 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1993/94) with the percentage of drivers and riders with known BAC > 0.05 (1990-94) Saturday 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Hours of the Day % Drivers & Rriders > 0.05 Figure C6 Comparison of the number of Random Breath Tests (1994/95) with the percentage of drivers and riders with known BAC > 0.05 (1990-94) 39 40 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE APPENDIX D PROPOSAL POSSIBILITY OF ADAPTING SOME ROAD SAFETY MEASURES SUCCESSFULLY APPLIED IN VICTORIA TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA Background The Enforcement Strategies Working Party of the South Australian Road Safety Consultative Council, through the Office of Road Safety, Department of Transport, South Australia has requested the Monash University Accident Research Centre to report on the extent to which there is scope to apply in South Australia some of the measures which have been successful in reducing road trauma in Victoria. In Victoria during the period 1989 to 1992 there was a reduction of 49% in fatalities and nearly 40% in persons admitted to hospital resulting from road crashes. These reductions have generally been maintained since 1992, although there was some increase in fatalities in 1995 (Figure 1), which has continued into 1996. Fatalities and Injuries as a Percentage of 1987 Levels Victoria 1987-95 Percentage of 1987 Level 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Fatalities Serious Injuries Other Injuries 20% 0% 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Year Figure 1 ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 41 Research by the Monash University Accident Research Centre has attributed the major proportions of these reductions to two major programs: • greatly increased random breath testing through introduction of 13 new “booze buses”, supported by massive publicity; • 54 new slant radar speed cameras yielding approximately 40,000 additional Traffic Infringement Notices per month, supported by massive publicity. In addition, a considerable reduction was associated with the downturn in the economy as measured by level of unemployment, and by the progressive reduction in retail alcohol sales. A smaller but progressively increasing contribution was made by the accident blackspot program since 1989. These reductions are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 Current Road Safety Situation in South Australia This section has been prepared based on an examination of the following documents supplied by the Office of Road Safety and South Australia Police as well as preliminary discussions with the Enforcement Strategies Working Party, of the Road Safety Consultative Council: 1. South Australian Road Crash Facts 1994, Office of Road Safety, South Australia. 2. South Australia Police, Traffic Strategic Plan 1995-2000. 3. South Australian Road Safety Consultative Council, Road Safety SA. A strategic plan for road safety in South Australia till the year 2000, Government of South Australia, 1995. 4. Harrison, R. Evaluation of speed media/enforcement campaign - post media survey, Harrison Market Research Pty. Ltd., S.A., 1995. 5. Meeting the Road Safety Challenge. Introducing the South Australian Road Safety Consultative Council. 6. Information on RBT in South Australia provided by the Office of Road Safety. 7. Traffic Intelligence Service, Traffic Matters, January 1996, S.A. 42 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE 8. Traffic Intelligence Service, Monthly Traffic Statistics, June, 1995, S.A. 9. Traffic Intelligence Service, Traffic Statistics, July1994-June, 1995, S.A. It is obvious that “Road Safety SA” provides a comprehensive strategic plan for road safety in South Australia and that a wide range of worthwhile programs are already in place or are planned. There are also effective arrangements for co-ordination of road safety and for delivery of specific programs. The areas where the Victorian experience may be of value in efforts to further reduce road trauma in South Australia, appear to be primarily in relation to drink-driving and of excessive speeding. It is noted that in 1995 there were 220,031 random breath tests conducted in SA, which corresponds to 22.6% of licensed drivers (compared with a rate of 57.6% in Victoria). On the other hand, it is understood that pro-rata usage of speed cameras and issue of speeding offence notices in S.A. is about the same level as in Victoria, but the method of operation and the associated legislation regarding demerit points are different. Similarly since the introduction of laser guns in South Australia on 1/9/95 there has been a significant increase in the breath testing of motorists who commit speeding offences. The Police are committed to breath testing all motorists stopped for laser gun offences. This initiative is uniquely South Australian and will no doubt positively influence the driver testing ratio. Proposed Study In order to provide a draft report by 7 August and to limit the total costs of this study, it is proposed that it be limited to the two main areas where success in reducing road trauma in Victoria has been documented, namely programs aimed at the reduction of drink driving and speeding. If in undertaking the study it becomes apparent that there is scope for further significant road trauma reductions in other areas, these will be outlined in the report and if of interest, they could be the subject of a further study. The report will describe the significant issues in the development and implementation of the two Victorian programs, i.e. • intensified random breath testing through introduction of high visibility “booze buses”, and • progressive introduction of 54 new slant radar speed cameras • with massive multi-media publicity support for each program. The report will include co-ordination arrangements and overall funding levels. The report will then examine current practice and future plans in South Australia in relation to drink driving enforcement (particularly RBT) and speed enforcement particularly speed cameras and laser speed detection. The use of publicity to support these programs will also be examined, including the method of development of the commercials, their main themes and tracking of their reach and comprehension by the target audiences. The report will then suggest additions or changes to the current or planned S.A. programs, or new programs related to drink-driving and speeding which are likely to be effective in reducing road deaths, injuries or crashes. Account will be taken of the differences between Adelaide and Melbourne and between country South Australia and country Victoria in making these ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 43 suggestions. An attempt will be made to estimate the likely benefits from such programs in relation to the additional expenditures involved. In order to undertake the study, information about the extent of drink driving and speeding in South Australia will be needed, including details of past, existing and planned programs aimed at reducing these and where available, their estimated effectiveness and costs. It is assumed that the Office of Road Safety will arrange for the supply of this information. A list of specific items is at Attachment A. Staff of the Monash University Accident Research Centre will spend approximately five days in Adelaide in discussions with key persons involved and in collecting any further information required. A draft report will be supplied by no later than 5 August and a presentation based on the report will be made to the Working Party in Adelaide on 7 August and then to the Road Safety Consultative Council on 8 August. Twenty copies of the final report will be supplied no later than two weeks after receiving comments on the draft report. Personnel The study will be undertaken by Professor Peter Vulcan, Director, MUARC and Mr. Max Cameron, Senior Research Fellow, MUARC. Peter has had 26 years’ experience in road safety research and policy. He was a member of the Victorian Road Safety Co-ordination Council during the period when the successful Victorian initiatives were implemented. Max has been involved in road safety research for about 30 years, and in recent years has been involved in evaluation of the effects of a wide range of road safety measures. C.V.s are at Appendix B. Graduate research assistants will provide assistance to the project as needed. 44 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE Appendix A (to Appendix D) INFORMATION REQUESTED For each year since 1989 (or preferably since 1984): 1. Number of RBT tests per month, if possible for Adelaide and rest of State separately 2. Number of hours of RBT operations per month 3. For drivers killed, and if possible drivers admitted to hospital, blood alcohol content for each year. Retail alcohol sales Results of annual speed surveys at a number of sites in different speed zones. Number of traffic offence notices issued for speeding per month, if possible for Adelaide and rest of State separately. Road safety publicity A videotape copy of all advertisements since 1989 (preferably earlier). Information on weekly or monthly TARPS for each TV advertisement Annual expenditure on publicity for TV, radio, press, billboards, other, if possible separately for development of commercial and placement. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 45 ATTACHMENT “Analysis of reductions in Victorian road casualties, 1989 to 1992’ from the Proceedings of the 17th ARRB Conference, Part 5, pp 165-182. ADAPTING ROAD SAFETY MEASURES TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA 47