Challenge’s Facing America’s Future –
Energy, Water and the Environment
Sustainable Use of Renewable Energy
(SURE)
at
The State University of New York
College of Environmental Sciences and Forestry
Syracuse, New York
November 6, 2008
BY
John J. Vasselli
UTC/CARRIER CORPORATION
1
PREFACE
The following presentation does not tell a “happy story”. At a time when we need some
good news, it’s probably not what you would like to hear right now. The problems in the
real estate market, Wall Street, and our global banking systems, are significant.
However, they are short-term and self-correcting.
The story that you are about to hear is one of long-term problems, not obviously
correctable. For those of you who have heard me give this talk before, the numbers have
been updated, but the message is the same. For this audience, that message will be
clear. We are running out of clean water, clean air and even food. We are running out of
oil. We are running out of natural gas. The use of coal and nuclear energy will increase
but at the cost of increased environmental risks. All these challenges are also interconnected. And we are running out of time.
Those of you who know me, know that I am not a pessimistic person. Rather, I am a
person who strongly believes in “self-fulfilling prophecy”. That means, I believe that we
can control our own destiny. Sources of clean, renewable energy are critical elements of
the solutions we must pursue. With change comes opportunity for those who are
prepared. Things must change. Let’s get ready!
John J. Vasselli
PS - Of course this presentation reflects solely the opinions of the author.
2
What is “Sustainable Development”?
Sustainable Development “development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.
(Brundtland Commission, 1987)
(i.e. saving today, what we will not otherwise have tomorrow.)
*****
3
How long is “life” as we think of it?
Five generations long:
Your
Grandparents
Your
Parents
YOU
Your
Children
Your
Grandchildren
- 100 Years
+ 100 Years
TODAY
“Peak Oil”
(<10 yrs)
“Peak Natural Gas”
(<20 yrs)
This is not some “futurist”, hypothetical discussion. It’s NOW.
Most of you will still be alive when “the ship hits the sand”.
4
Most Basic Elements of Sustainability -
#1 Air – to breath
#2 Water – to drink, grow food, etc.
#3 Food – to eat
#4 Energy – to fuel our lives
#5 Shelter – to protect us
(A variant of Maslow’s Hierarchy – let’s call it Vaslow’s Hierarchy)
5
#1 THE AIR WE BREATH
Earth’s Diameter: 7926 miles
Atmosphere’s Thickness:
62 miles (0.0078%)
Chemical Composition of Air by molecular weight:
“The skin on the apple”
Nitrogen: 78%
Oxygen: 21%
Water Vapor: 1% Argon: 0.93% Carbon Dioxide: 0.03%
Traces of: Neon, Methane, Helium, Krypton, Hydrogen, Xenon
6
#1 THE AIR & THE OZONE HOLE
NASA Aura Satellite Image of hole:
9.7 million sq miles in size
Larger than size of North America
11.4 million sq miles largest
recorded hole in 2006
Caused by (now banned) man-made
chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)
Because of persistence in
atmosphere, full recovery of hole not
expected until 2070.
But that means we probably caught it in time!
7
#1 AIR QUALITY
The average person breaths 3400 gallons of air each day.
An individual breaths in approximately 7 million particles, 28 million
bacteria, and several micrograms of harmful gases every hour.
Increased risks of death and chronic illness can be directly related to
airborne particulates and gases.
The probability of death from heart attack or respiratory illness is
much higher in areas where air pollution is high.
Approximately 2 million people die each year from poor air quality.
That is higher than deaths due to breast, colon and stomach
cancers; diabetes, malaria, tuberculosis, Alzheimers, traffic
accidents, and diarrheal diseases.
Climate change and dirtier energy sources will increasingly make
global air quality worse.
8
#1 AIR QUALITY
In a recent study of counties surrounding Zaozhuang, China, 6% of deaths
were attributed to air pollution, projected to increase to 13% by 2020.
(Wang, Princeton)
Similar health risks exist in major cities all around the world.
9
#1 AIR QUALITY
Increased Risk of Death in U.S. Cities (2007)
PM2.5
(µg/m3) # Days Health Risk
1
3
MAX >10 µg/m Increase
Pittsburg
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Cleveland
Detroit
Baltimore
Chicago
Sacramento
Cincinnati
Wash DC
1.
54.7
51.2
79.2
39.7
36.6
45.4
39.4
59.0
36.5
48.0
42
38
22
13
12
11
10
10
9
8
5-11%
5-10%
8-16%
4-8%
4-7%
5-9%
4-8%
6-12%
4-7%
5-10%
4 to 16%
increase in death
due to short term
PM exposure
Increased risk of death 1-2% for every 10µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 per 24 hours.
10
#2 THE WORLD WATER CRISIS
Today - 40% of world’s population
faces serious water shortages.
By 2025, 66% of the world’s pop.
will face serious water shortages.
Many of the world’s major rivers
are running dry: the Colorado,
Ganges, Indus, Rio Grande and
the Yellow River.
11
#2 THE WORLD WATER CRISIS
In 1972, the Yellow River in China failed to reach the sea for the first
time in history. That year it failed on 15 days; every year since, it has
run dry for a longer period of time, until in 1997, it failed to reach the
sea for 226 days.
12
#2 THE COMING U.S. WATER CRISIS -
The U.S. draws 20 billion gallons a day
more water than is replenished.
The Rio Grande frequently runs dry
east of El Paso.
In less than 50 years, water shortages
will be common west of the Mississippi
River.
Wars are, and will increasingly be,
fought over water.
(READ: Cadillac Desert)
13
#2 WATER USE COMPARISON • The average American daily consumption of water is 159 gallons.
• A typical U.S. diet requires 4000 gallons of water per day.
Meanwhile:
• Half the world’s population lives
on 25 gallons of water per day.
• The average Palestinian lives on
10-15 gallons of water per day.
• It takes four bottles of water to produce one bottle of bottled water.
14
#3 THE FOOD CRISIS
Population (Billions)
The world’s population is currently increasing at a
rate of approximately 100 Million people/year.
6
POPULATION –
5
• In 1800 - One Billion people.
4
• By 1900 - Two Billion people.
3
• By 1950 - Three Billion people.
2
• By 1975 - Four Billion people.
1
• By 2001 - Six Billion people.
• Today, approx. 6.6 Billion people.
1800
*
1900
1950
2000
1975
15
#3 THE FOOD CRISIS
One Billion People Go to Sleep Hungry every night.
Ten Million People die from hunger each year.
That is the equivalent of 75 jumbo jet crashes every day.
16
THE NEW MATH: #2 + #4 = #3
Water + Energy = FOOD
• It takes over 5,000 gallons of water to
produce 1 pound of beef.
• It takes 25 gallons of water to produce
one pound of wheat.
• 80% of corn and 95% of oats grown
are fed to livestock.
• 56% of available farmland is used for
beef production.
• 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce 1 calorie of food in the U.S.
• The average piece of food travels 1500 miles to get to your plate.
• The production of fertilizer is very energy intensive.
There is an SUV in your pantry!
17
AND FINALLY: #4 - ENERGY
Every year, the world uses up approximately 10,000 years
of stored carbon-based energy; oil, natural gas and coal.
Our inherited “solar-capital savings”
18
#4 THE COMING ENERGY CRISIS • Worldwide demand for oil is projected to increase >2%/year, while
production is projected to decrease by 3%/year.
• Current worldwide oil consumption is approximately 85 million barrels of
oil per day. By 2020, worldwide oil demands will result in a 40 to 50 million
barrel/day shortage.
• 80% of known oil reserves are in politically unstable countries.
• The U.S. imports 60% of the hydrocarbon energy that it consumes.
• World-wide oil production may very well have already peaked.
NOTE: Peak oil will mean that if someone wants to
use more oil, someone else will have to use less.
19
What Lies Beyond Hubbert’s Peak?
World Oil Production
Million Barrels per Day
150
World Energy
Demand
Today: 85
90
“Peak Oil”
70
It took 125 years to burn up the first
half of our inherited solar capital.
The 70’s
It will take less than fifty years to
burn through the second half.
J.J. Vasselli, 1/06
1850
1885
1995 2000 2015
2060
Many believe that we have already reached world hit peak oil production.
Even optimists predict that by 2015, worldwide oil production will peak.
20
Have We Reached Peak Oil?
World Oil Production
21
#4 THE ENERGY CRISIS
Sixty-two percent of increased world demand for energy
between 2000-30 will come from developing countries*
Energy Consumption
100%
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
80%
TRANSITION ECONOMIES
OTHER COUNTRIES
60%
40%
% World
Population
20%
1971
1990
2000
2008
2030
% Annual World
Energy Consumption
2000
2007
U.S.
4.5%
25%
22%
China
20%
9%
14%
India
17%
3%
4%
* Source: International Energy Agency
22
THE NEW MATH: #2 - #3 = #4
Water - Food = Energy
• It takes 3.5 gallons of water to produce 1.0
gallon of ethanol.
• It takes 11 acres of land to grow enough
ethanol to drive the average car 10,000 miles.
• That would feed 7 people for one year.
• One-third of world food production relies upon man-made
fertilizer supplements.
• The production of fertilizer requires large amounts of energy
to produce the essential element nitrogen.
23
WHAT ARE OUR ENERGY OPTIONS?
• Petroleum (“Oil”)
• Solar Power
• Natural Gas
• Wind Power
• Coal
• Hydrogen Power
• Nuclear
• Biofuels
• Hydroelectric
• Biomass
• Geo-thermal
24
WHAT IS OUR ENERGY MIX TODAY?
RESIDENTIAL (7%)
COMMERCIAL
(4%)
TRANSPORTATION
(23%)
ELECTRIC
POWER
(40%)
INDUSTRIAL
OTHER
RENEWABLES
(2%)
PETROLEUM
(2%)
HYDRO
(7%)
NUCLEAR
(19%)
COAL
(49%)
NATURAL GAS
(20%)
(21%)
PRIMARY CONSUMPTION (2007)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION (2006)
TRANSPORTATION
96% PETROLEUM BASED
3.5% BIOFUELS
0.5% ALL OTHER
SOURCE:
Energy Information Administration
25
PETROLEUM (Oil) CONSUMPTION
• 40% of U.S. energy usage is petroleum based.
• The U.S. imports 58% of it’s annual oil usage.
• Majority of remaining oil reserves in unstable
nations/regions.
• World oil production is at or near “peak” production.
• Worldwide oil demand in 2050 will exceed
production by 50%.
• China’s oil imports doubled from 1999 to 2004.
The use of oil as an energy source is near peak and will decline
worldwide based upon decreasing availability and increasing price.
(Its’ chemical value and lubrication value far exceed its’ combustion value.)
26
Some Observations about Tar Sands
• Alberta Canada contains tar sand
deposits estimated to contain the equivalent
of 200 Billion barrels of oil.
• Some say: “Hundreds of years of energy”
Removal of petroleum from tar sands is difficult:
•
•
•
•
Open pit mining
Immense quantities of superheated water washing
20% of Canadian NG needed to heat water
Large quantities of polluted water waste
Equivalent of 3 barrels of oil produced for every 2 barrels used to
extract. Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI): 3/2 = 1.5
NOTE: The EROEI for a barrel of Texas or Saudi oil is about 20/1.
27
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION
• >90% of new electrical power plants in the U.S. (will) burn NG.
• Source of approximately one-third of total U.S. energy usage.
• U.S. production of NG peaked in 1973.
• U.S. production currently declining at 5%/year.
• Canada exports two-thirds of NG production to U.S.
• World production of NG will peak < 20 years.
• Natural Gas EROEI = 10
The use of natural gas as an energy source will peak and then decline
worldwide based upon decreasing availability and increasing price.
(Too valuable and portable to burn in mass quantities for electricity generation)
28
COAL CONSUMPTION
• 25% of world coal reserves are in the U.S.
• “Hundreds of years of energy” in coal reserves.
• U.S. consumes 1 Billion tons of coal per year.
• Half of electricity generated in U.S.
• 5 to 20% of coal burnt is solid waste: 1 M tons/year/power plant.
• As with oil, the deeper, dirtier, more expensive coal is left.
• Coal burning generates sulphur (and acid rain), nitrogen, carbon
dioxide, and mercury airborne pollutants (about 60% of particulates).
• “Clean” Coal is the logical candidate for electricity
generation to replace declining oil and natural gas.
The use of coal as an energy source will increase significantly
based upon abundance. However, “clean coal” is essential.
29
HYDROPOWER CONSUMPTION
• One of the oldest & cleanest sources of power.
• Up to 90% energy efficiencies are possible.
• 7% of U.S. energy is hydro generated.
• Currently 2200 hydropower sites in the U.S.
• Hydropower produces today, 80,000 megawatts.
• Remaining U.S. hydro capacity est. to be 30,000 megawatts.
• Silting up of dam reservoirs estimated to be 0.2% reduction in
reservoir capacity per year (0.1% in East/0.5% in West).
• Climate change could affect rainfall and hydropower potential.
The use of hydropower as an energy source will increase worldwide.
In the U.S. a modest (35%) increase in production is possible.
30
NUCLEAR POWER CONSUMPTION
• 8% of U.S. primary energy.
• 19% of U.S. electrical energy generation.
• 70% of French electrical energy generation.
• 109 licensed plants in U.S.; 400 worldwide.
• Amount of uranium needed to supply a family
of four for a lifetime would fit into a beer can.
• During the past 40 years, no fatalities have resulted from the
operation of U.S. civilian nuclear power plants.
• The average reactor produces about 1.5 tons of radioactive
waste per year; about 5 cubic yards of waste.
• Since 1957, about 9000 ton of waste, roughly the size of a high
school gymnasium.
The use of nuclear power as an energy source will increase worldwide.
Environment risks must be adequately addressed however. 31
SOLAR POWER CONSUMPTION
Solar power includes electricity generation
(photovoltaics) and passive solar air/water heating.
• Solar power currently represents a tiny
percentage (0.07%) of total U.S. primary energy.
• Current photovoltaic technology is expense, but functional for
small scale (residential/light commercial) electrical and heated
water power needs.
• Economics of geography becoming less critical as higher
ambient light conversion efficiencies improve. (i.e. sunlight not required)
• Technology works, but “economics” of Life Cycle Cost (LCC)
must improve before wider use embraced.
32
THE COST OF SOLAR ENERGY
Cost of Solar Energy per KwHr
Closing the Gap
$0.50
Sources: Solar Energy Industries Association
and Energy Information Association
0.40
0.30
$8-10/watt/m2 installed
0.20
0.1537
0.10
1990
93
96
99
02
06
Average Price of Residential
Electricity per KwHr
The use of solar power as an energy source will increase dramatically
worldwide. However, even a 100X increase will meet < 10% only
33
total future energy needs.
WIND POWER CONSUMPTION
• Wind Power represents a very small percentage
(0.35%) of primary power generation in the U.S.
• In U.S. wind power generated about 1% of total
electricity generated (3rd in World).
• Germany leads world wind power generation
at 21,283 MW, follow by Spain at 12,765 MW.
• Total world wind power in 2006 was 79,341 MW.
• Worldwide wind power generation is predicted to double by 2010.
• Wind power generation is weather and geography dependent.
The use of wind power as an energy source will increase dramatically
worldwide. However, even a 10X increase will meet only a few
percent of total future energy needs.
34
Some Observations about Hydrogen
• By-product of energy generation is water vapor.
• First demonstrated in 1839 by Sir William Robert Grove
• Used by NASA since 1950’s
• Conventional methods of hydrogen production
unattractive: ER/EI = 1/1.4 (i.e. it takes more energy to
produce hydrogen then you get back from using it.)
• Use of solar power to crack water into hydrogen and
oxygen a possibility (Texaco) and most attractive.
• Storage and transport are issues because of low density.
• Highly flammable, highly corrosive, issues of leaks.
• Perhaps biggest issue availability of platinum, etc.
The “age of hydrogen” will come. But it is (and has been for ten years)
the “carrot on the end of the stick”. ER/EI improvements?
35
ETHANOL CONSUMPTION
• Ethanol today replaces approx. 3.5% of U.S. gasoline supply.
• The U.S. leads the world in ethanol production with approximately
5 billion gallons/2006; 36% of world production.
• U.S. ethanol is based upon corn kernels as feedstock.
• Brazil ranks second with 33%, but mostly sugarcane based.
• European ethanol based upon wheat and sugar beets feedstock.
• U.S. ethanol consumption doubled from 2002 to 2006.
• Currently 120 ethanol refineries in U.S. with 70 under construction.
• Total production capacity 12 Billion gallons/year.
• Goal to produce over 35 Billion gallons by 2022.
• Estimate for ethanol RE/RI in U.S. is 1.25-1.30
Ethanol production should increase, but not at the expense of food
production. Cellulosic enzymatic hydrolysis will be the key.
36
BIODIESEL CONSUMPTION
• Europe leads world in biodiesel production.
• Biodiesel in Europe > 1.0% of diesel market.
• Feedstock for biodiesel 90% rapeseed based in Europe.
• Biodiesel in U.S. only 0.2% of diesel market.
• Feedstock for biodiesel 90% soybean based in U.S.
• Estimates for U.S. RE/RI biodiesel is 1.9.
The use of biodiesel as a transportation energy source
will increase greatly worldwide.
37
BIOMASS CONSUMPTION
• Currently about 2% of total U.S. energy
source is based upon wood burning.
• Switch grass and willow are primary
candidates as sources.
• EROEI: 1:11 (co-firing with coal)
1:13 (gasification process).
1:55 (at the farm gate)
1:80 (w/organic fertilizer)
• Environmental safeguards for particulate
and gases generation.
• Transportation distances and seasonal
availability could be factors.
The burning of switch grass and willow for electricity generation will
increase with proper environmental safe guards and where
transportation distances and seasonal availability are not an issue.
38
THE COST OF BIOFUELS
Closing the Gap
$ 7.00
Biofuel
$ 6.00
Cost/gallon
Gasoline
$ 5.00
$ 4.00
$ 3.00
$ 2.00
$ 1.00
2000
2002
2004
2006 2007 2008 2009
2012
Source: DOE EERE Office of the Biomass Program,
Multi-year program plan, Appendix C.
Biofuels production is growing at a rate of 15%/yr 10x oil
39
ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE
North America 2007
Petroleum 40%
Solar Energy .07%
85% of primary
energy comes
from fossil fuels
Nuclear
Electric
Power
8%
Hydroelectric 2.52%
Renewable
Energy
7%
Geothermal .35%
Biomass 3.7%
Wind Energy .35%
Natural Gas
23%
Coal - 22%
Source: Energy Information Administration 2008
40
ENERGY RETURN ON ENERGY INVESTED
(EROEI or ER/EI)
The ratio of the amount of energy produced divided by
the amount of energy needed to produce it.
Non-Renewable Energy
SOURCE
Oil
Coal
EROEI
10 to 30:1
11 to 25:1
Natural Gas
10:1
Nuclear
5-20:1
Shade Oil
3.3:1
Tar Sands:
1.5:1
(CHANGE PAGE)
Renewable Energy
SOURCE
EROEI
AVAILABILITY
AVAILABILITY
Hydro
45 to 100:1
Wind
4 to 18:1
Solar
5:1
Hydrogen
?
Biomass
4 to >10:1
Biodiesel
3.5:1
Corn Ethanol
<1 to <2:1
Cellulosic Enzymatic
Hydrolysis Ethanol 2 to>30:1
41
ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE
North America 2030 (a Guesstimate)
ASSUMPTIONS:
35% growth in primary energy consumption
20% increase in energy efficiency.
Petroleum 30% (-10%)
70% of primary
energy will come
from fossil fuels
Nuclear
Electric
Power
20%(+12%)
Renewable
Energy
20% (+13%)
Hydroelectric 3.5% (+1%)
Geothermal 1.2 (+.85%)
Biomass 13% (+9%)
& Liquid Biofuels
Wind Energy 2% (+1.65%)
Natural Gas
25 (-3%)
Oil + Natural Gas = 63%
2007
Solar Energy 0.30%
(+.25%)
Coal + Nuclear = 30%
Renewables = 7%
Coal 40% (+18%)
Oil + Natural Gas < 55%
Coal + Nuclear > 60%
Renewables > 20%
2030
42
MY CONCLUSION
Where to Invest
ASSUMPTIONS:
35% growth in primary energy consumption
20% increase in energy efficiency.
BIOFUEL:
Cellulosic
Enzymatic
Hydrolysis
BIOMASS:
“Here Today”
Petroleum 30% (-10%)
70% of primary
energy will come
from fossil fuels
Nuclear
Electric
Power
20%(+12%)
Solar Energy 0.30%
(+.25%)
Renewable
Energy
20% (+13%)
Hydroelectric 3.5% (+1%)
Geothermal 1.2 (+.85%)
Biomass 13% (+9%)
& Liquid Biofuels
Wind Energy 2% (+1.65%)
Natural Gas
25 (-3%)
Coal 40% (+18%)
“clean coal”
(AN OXIMORON?)
Oil + Natural Gas = 63%
2007
Coal + Nuclear = 30%
Renewables = 7%
Oil + Natural Gas < 55%
Coal + Nuclear > 60%
Renewables > 20%
2030
43
Postscript –
This presentation has been about energy production, but
the most sustainable energy is energy that we do not use.
Reduced use and increased efficiency
should be 50% of the “ultimate solution”!
A 50% reduction in building and transportation energy usage is
possible. That would result in a 35% reduction in primary energy
consumption, and zero energy consumption growth between
today and 2030. The would result in an additional 35%
reduction in combined oil, natural gas and coal usage.
44