SUNY ESF Presentation:
Challenges Facing Our Future
Advanced Training Workshops
in Alternative Energy
July 29, 2009
John J. Vasselli
ESF Adjunct Professor
DEFINITION
Sustainable Development “development that meets the needs of the present,
without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs”.
(Brundtland Commission, 1987)
*****
Saving today, what we will not otherwise have tomorrow.
Life is perceived by most as being five
generations long –
+ 100 Years
Grandchildren
Your Children
YOU
Your Parents
Grandparents
- 100 Years
What will the World be like …
…100 years from now?
(Ok - how about just 10 or 20 years from now?)
Most Basic Elements of Sustainability
(And Opportunity)
#1 Air – to breath
#2 Water – to drink, grow food, etc.
#3 Food – to eat
#4 Energy – to fuel our lives
In the movie the Graduate, the future was in “plastics”.
#1 THE AIR WE BREATH
Earth’s Diameter: 7926 miles
Atmosphere’s Thickness:
62 miles (0.0078%)
Chemical Composition of Air by molecular weight:
Nitrogen: 78%
Oxygen: 21%
Water Vapor: 1% Argon: 0.93% Carbon Dioxide: 0.03%
Traces of: Neon, Methane, Helium, Krypton, Hydrogen, Xenon
“The skin on the apple”
#1 THE AIR & THE OZONE HOLE
NASA Aura Satellite Image of hole:
9.7 million sq miles in size
Larger than size of North America
11.4 million sq miles largest
recorded hole in 2006
Caused by (now banned) man-made
chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)
Because of persistence in
atmosphere, full recovery of hole not
expected until 2070.
But that means we probably caught it in time!
#1 AIR QUALITY
In a recent study of counties surrounding Zaozhuang, China, 6% of deaths
were attributed to air pollution, projected to increase to 13% by 2020.
(Wang, Princeton)
Similar health risks exist in major cities all around the world.
#1 AIR QUALITY
Increased Risk of Death in U.S. Cities (2007)
PM2.5
(µg/m3) # Days Health Risk
1
3
MAX >10 µg/m Increase
Pittsburg
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Cleveland
Detroit
Baltimore
Chicago
Sacramento
Cincinnati
Wash DC
1.
54.7
51.2
79.2
39.7
36.6
45.4
39.4
59.0
36.5
48.0
42
38
22
13
12
11
10
10
9
8
5-11%
5-10%
8-16%
4-8%
4-7%
5-9%
4-8%
6-12%
4-7%
5-10%
4 to 16%
increase in death
due to short term
Particulate Matter
(PM) exposure
Increased risk of death 1-2% for every 10µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 per 24 hours.
#2 THE WORLD WATER CRISIS
Today - 40% of world’s population
faces serious water shortages.
By 2025, 66% of the world’s pop.
will face serious water shortages.
Many of the world’s major rivers
are running dry: the Colorado,
Ganges, Indus, Rio Grande and
the Yellow River.
#2 WATER USE COMPARISON • The average American daily consumption of water is 159 gallons.
• A typical U.S. diet requires 4000 gallons of water per day.
Meanwhile:
• Half the world’s population lives
on 25 gallons of water per day.
• The average Palestinian lives on
10-15 gallons of water per day.
• It takes four bottles of water to produce one bottle of bottled water.
#3 THE FOOD CRISIS
Population (Billions)
The world’s population is currently increasing at a
rate of approximately 100 Million people/year.
6
POPULATION –
5
• In 1800 - One Billion people.
4
• By 1900 - Two Billion people.
3
• By 1950 - Three Billion people.
2
• By 1975 - Four Billion people.
1
• By 2001 - Six Billion people.
• Today, approx. 6.6 Billion people.
1800
*
1900
1950
2000
1975
#3 THE FOOD CRISIS
One Billion People Go to Sleep Hungry every night.
Ten Million People die from hunger each year.
That is the equivalent of 75 jumbo jet crashes every day.
THE NEW MATH: #2 + #4 = #3
Water + Energy = FOOD
• It takes over 5,000 gallons of water to
produce 1 pound of beef.
• It takes 25 gallons of water to produce
one pound of wheat.
• 80% of corn and 95% of oats grown
are fed to livestock.
• 56% of available farmland is used for
beef production.
• 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce 1 calorie of food in the U.S.
• The average piece of food travels 1500 miles to get to your plate.
There is an SUV in your pantry!
AND FINALLY: #4 - ENERGY
Every year, the world uses up approximately 10,000 years
of stored carbon-based energy; oil, natural gas and coal.
Our inherited “solar-capital savings”
#4 THE ENERGY CRISIS
Sixty-two percent of increased world demand for energy
between 2000-30 will come from developing countries*
Energy Consumption
100%
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
80%
TRANSITION ECONOMIES
OTHER COUNTRIES
60%
40%
% World
Population
20%
1971
1990
2000
2008
* Source: International Energy Agency
2030
% Annual World
Energy Consumption
2000
2007
U.S.
4.5%
25%
22%
China
20%
9%
14%
India
17%
3%
4%
What Lies Beyond Hubbert’s Peak?
World Oil Production
Million Barrels per Day
150
World Energy
Demand
Today: 85
90
“Peak Oil”
70
It took 125 years to burn up the first
half of our inherited solar capital.
The 70’s
It will take less than fifty years to
burn through the second half.
J.J. Vasselli, 1/06
1850
1885
1995 2000 2015
2060
Many believe that we have already reached world hit peak oil production.
Even optimists predict that by 2015, worldwide oil production will peak.
Peak oil means that whenever someone
uses one more barrel of oil, someone else
will have to use one barrel less.
So how will individuals (people and companies), regional and national
economies, and generally the World, be able to continue to “grow” ?
Like Lilies on a Pond –
If the number of water lilies growing on a pond doubles
every day, and it takes 100 days for the pond to be
completely covered, on what day is the pond only half
covered by lilies?
YOUR IMPACT AS TEACHERS
Your
Grandparents
Your
Parents
YOU
Your
Students
- 100 Years
Your Students’
Children
+ 100 Years
TODAY
“Peak Oil”
(<10 yrs)
“Peak Natural Gas”
(<20 yrs)
This is not some “futurist”, hypothetical discussion. It’s NOW.
ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE
North America 2007
Petroleum 40%
Solar Energy .07%
85% of primary
energy comes
from fossil fuels
Nuclear
Electric
Power
8%
Hydroelectric 2.52%
Renewable
Energy
7%
Geothermal .35%
Biomass 3.7%
Wind Energy .35%
Natural Gas
23%
Source: Energy Information Administration 2008
Coal - 22%
ENERGY in 2030 My Best Guess
ASSUMPTIONS:
35% growth in primary energy consumption
20% increase in energy efficiency.
Petroleum 30% (-10%)
70% of primary
energy will come
from fossil fuels
Nuclear
Electric
Power
20%(+12%)
Solar Energy 0.30%
(+.25%)
Renewable
Energy
20% (+13%)
Biomass 13% (+9%)
& Liquid Biofuels
Wind Energy 2% (+1.65%)
(down from 85%)
Natural Gas
25 (-3%)
Oil + Natural Gas = 63%
2007
Hydroelectric 3.5% (+1%)
Geothermal 1.2 (+.85%)
Coal + Nuclear = 30%
Renewables = 7%
Coal 40% (+18%)
Oil + Natural Gas < 55%
Coal + Nuclear > 60%
Renewables > 20%
2030
The most sustainable energy is energy that
we do not use.
Reduced use and increased efficiency
should be 50% of the “ultimate solution”!
A 50% reduction in building and transportation energy usage is achievable
within 20 years.
That would result in a 35% reduction in primary energy consumption, and
zero energy consumption growth between today and 2030.
This would result in an additional 35% reduction in combined oil, natural
gas and coal usage demand and give us 100 years to change the world
from an energy perspective.
Upstate New York Prognosis
We have plenty of water.
We have plenty of land.
We are a great place to live, work, play and shop.
Agriculture will be a growth area for the region.
Education will be a growth area for the region.
Smart, dedicated, hardy people will be a growth area.
We have an abundance of renewable resources.
Our Regionalization can replace Globalization.
Economic Development must replace Economic Growth.
“Better” will replace “Bigger”.