Nicole Vaillant A Pacific A, Alan Ager A, John Anderson Northwest Research Station, WWETAC, Prineville OR; B B BalanceTech, LLC, Missoula MT www.fs.fed.us/wwetac/arcfuels Fire behavior modeling and geospatial analyses can provide tremendous insight for land managers as they grapple with the complex problems frequently encountered in wildfire risk assessments and fire and fuels management planning. Fuel management often is a particularly complicated process in which the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments need to be demonstrated in the context of land management goals and public expectations. The fuel treatment planning process is complicated by the lack of data assimilation among fire behavior models and weak linkages to GIS, corporate data, and desktop office software. ArcFuels is a streamlined fuel management planning and wildfire risk assessment system that creates a trans-scale (stand to large landscape) interface to apply various forest growth and fire behavior models within an ArcGIS platform to design and test fuel treatment alternatives. ArcFuels Highlights Packages existing forest growth & visualization models & fire behavior models in ArcGIS (table below). Streamlined fuel management planning and wildfire risk assessment system Creates a trans-scale interface to apply various forest growth & fire behavior models Automates FVS/FFE-FVS runs allowing for rapid treatment analysis for a stand or landscape & makes FVS/FFE-FVS spatially explicit Exports & graphs stand level FVS/FFE-FVS outputs, including treatment comparisons Quickly build and clip landscape files from grid data, FFE-FVS data, or a combination for use with FARSITE, FlamMap, etc. Rapid landscape fuel treatment design & “implementation” Tools to complete wildfire risk assessments Eliminates a number of tedious data transformations and repetitive processes. Model Description The ArcFuels toolbar has been set up to follow a typical fuel treatment planning work flow. Steps include: Obtaining data Critiquing & updating data Modeling existing conditions Creating treatment alternative(s) Assessing the effectiveness of the alternative(s) Black boxes represent ArcFuels specific functionality. Data Requirements ArcFuels uses FVS (stand & treelist data) and/or raster data (i.e., LANDFIRE). Stand/plot data 1. FVS ready database 2. Stand polygon layer Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) Individual-tree, distance-independent growth and yield model Stand Visualization System (SVS) Fire and Fuels Extension to FVS (FFE-FVS) NEXUS BehavePlus FlamMap Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) Landscape Treatment Designer (LTD) Fire Family Plus Generates graphics depicting stand conditions Stand-level simulations of fuel dynamics, potential fire behavior and fire effects over time Stand-level spreadsheet that links surface and crown fire prediction models Stand-level fire behavior, fire effects, and fire environment model Landscape-level fire behavior mapping and analysis program Landscape-level fire spread simulator Stand-level first order fire effects modeling system Landscape-level fuel treatment planning tool Fire weather 3. Slope raster 4. Aspect raster 5. Elevation raster Download & Tutorials 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Raster data Slope Aspect Elevation Fuel model Canopy cover Canopy base height Canopy bulk density Canopy height 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Other data Weather data Project boundary Past disturbance layers Resource value layers Treatment units Roads Vegetation layers Etc. Available at the ArcFuels website ArcFuels for ArcGIS 9.x and 10.x Detailed tutorials for ArcFuels & linked programs All the programs you need to use ArcFuels Demonstration data Exercise outputs Supporting documentation ArcFuels and Wildfire Risk Assessments ArcFuels and FVS/FFE-FVS ArcFuels has an integrated GUI for running FVS at the stand and landscape scales. Some of the features unique to ArcFuels include: Crowning Index (CI) • Automated Excel (stand) and Access (landscape) outputs • Automated SVS files • Many FFE keywords hardwired for rapid runs • Rapid prescription assessment/analysis Automated graph showing the of different thinning • Join FVS outputs to a stand polygon file for a given year effect intensities on predicted crowning index. • Build LCPs for fire modeling from FVS outputs A C B A B FVS treatment files (KCP) can be quickly applied to stands to create landscape treatment plans a number of ways, the form (A) for ArcSelected stands is shown (B). D A Inventory data ArcFuels automates the process of calculating the NVC for any highly valued resources using burn probabilities and intensities simulated in FlamMap5 (a.k.a. FLP file) and stylized response functions (shown above) or loss databases also created in ArcFuels via FVS. B FVS simulation FVS prescriptions Wildfire risk is the product of the likelihood of a fire occurring (burn probability), the associated fire behavior when a fire occurs, and the effects of the fire (response function). The quantitative definition is called the Net Value Change (NVC). Access output database ArcFuels process Slope, aspect & elevation rasters ArcGIS fuel rasters ArcFuels process Landscape file (LCP) Linkage of FVS database and stand shapefile (A), SVS run for the same stand (B) and forms in ArcFuels to run the stand level FVS (C&D). Flow of LCP creation in ArcFuels from raster data and FVS data (A). Form in ArcFuels used to build an LCP from FVS data using two databases, no treatment and a WUI treatment alternative (B). ArcFuels form used to create a loss function database in FVS to couple with FlamMap5 outputs to calculate NVC. ArcFuels and FlamMap ArcFuels is used for both pre-processing (i.e., building LCPs) data for use with FlamMap (also FARSITE & FSim) and post processing. Use ArcFuels to update raster data to represent current conditions before building your LCP. A B Rapidly convert fire size list text outputs from FlamMap5 (A) to projected shapefiles (B). B ArcFuels form used to calculate NVC with stylized response functions. ArcFuels is also used for other aspects of wildfire risk such a calculating the conditional flame length and source sink ratio, and averaging data to create risk scatters and curves from FlamMap5 outputs. ArcFuels form (left) used to create a risk scatter plot of calculate average conditional flame lengths and burn probabilities (below A) and a risk curve (below B) for dominant forest types. Using an attributed shapefile (A) to define the location and type of treatment to update rasters and create an LCP (B). A ArcFuels form used to calculate NVC with loss function database from FVS. A Batch convert, B project, and map ASCII files to rasters all in one step (A). And an example of MTT arrival time raster with the MTT major paths and ignition line overtop (B). Scatter plots and risk curves can be used to show the relative risk of different subunits (polygons) within a landscape. ArcFuels form used to calculate conditional flame lengths from a FLP file generated in FlamMap5. ArcFuels Citations Contact information Vaillant, N.M., Ager, A.A., Anderson J. 2013. ArcFuels10 system overview. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-875. Portland, OR: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 65 p. Nicole Vaillant (nvaillant@fs.fed.us) Alan Ager (aager@fs.fed.us) Ager, A.A., Vaillant, N.M., Finney, M.A. 2011. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning. Journal of Combustion, Article ID 572452, 19 pages.