SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY
D E PA RT M E N T O F C H E M I S T RY
Changes in Sight:
Limits of Growth, Climate Change and
Extreme Weather Phenomena
Thomas Kadyk
Engineering Scientist, Postdoc @ SFU
Group of Michael Eikerling
Winemaking
2012/06/13
Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
2
Growing of the Yeast
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1 min
Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
2 min
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Growing of the Yeast
1.2E+18
Number of yeast cells
1E+18
8E+17
6E+17
4E+17
2E+17
0
0
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Time [min]
Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
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Sugar Content
Number of yeast cells / units of sugar
1.2E+18
sugar content
1E+18
8E+17
6E+17
4E+17
2E+17
0
0
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Time [min]
Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
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Alcohol Poisoning the Yeast
4.5E+08
Alcohol content
(poison)
Number of Yeast Cells / alcohol units
4.0E+08
3.5E+08
3.0E+08
2.5E+08
2.0E+08
1.5E+08
1.0E+08
5.0E+07
0.0E+00
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10
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Time [min]
Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
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6
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Carbon Dioxide Residence Time
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Projections into the Future
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Uncertainties
• Measured value
x=1
• Modelling
y = 10x = 10
z = y3 = 1000
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Uncertainties
• Measured value
x = 1 ± 0.1 = 0.9 … 1 … 1.1
• Modelling
y = 10x = 7.9 … 10 … 12.6
z = y3 = 501 … 1000 … 1995
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Temperature, Sea Level and Snow Cover
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Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
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Past Sea Level vs. Temperature
Long-term effect
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Sea Level Risks – U.S. East Coast
globalwarmingart.com
NASA SRTM data
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Sea Level Risks – Southeast Asia
globalwarmingart.com
NASA SRTM data
2012/06/13
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Sea Level Risks – Middle East
globalwarmingart.com
NASA SRTM data
2012/06/13
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Sea Level Risks – North Sea
globalwarmingart.com
NASA SRTM data
2012/06/13
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Arctic Sea Ice
1979
2007
NASA
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Arctic Sea Ice
Sorteberg, Bjeknes Centre
for Climate Research and
University Center at
Svalbard, Norway.
2012/06/13
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Albedo
• Positive feedback loop
% of radiation reflected
• Arctic is warming twice as
much as global average
Hugo Ahlenius,
UNEP/GRID-Arendal
2012/06/13
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Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere
Hugo Ahlenius (2007), UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Carbon Content
in billion tonnes
≈50% of global belowground
organic carbon pool
Schuur et al., UNEP, CDIAC.
Tarnocai (2009) Global Biogeochem Cycles 23, GB2023
2012/06/13
Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change
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Increase in Extremes
• changes in extremes can be linked to
changes in mean, variability and/or
shape of probability distributions
• changing climate leads to changes in
–
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frequency
intensity
spatial extent
duration
timing
of extreme weather and climate events
2012/06/13
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Droughts
Annual Vol. Soil Moisture trend 1950-2000
[%/y]
Sheffield and Wood (2008) J Climate 21, 432
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Droughts
• Positive feedback loops
– less moisture in soil → less heat loss from evaporation +
fewer clouds
– vegetation dries out → more fires → release of CO2
• Globally, since the 1970s, droughts are getting
longer and more widespread
• Heatwaves have become slightly hotter and more
frequency
• Combination of droughts and heatwaves especially
dangerous
• Drought projections not very accurate because they
rely on uncertain precipitation projections
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Hard to Assess and Predict
• e.g.
– El Niño, monsoons, tropical and extratropical cyclons
– Rain and precipitation, Flooding, Winds
• Extreme events are rare
– few data available
• Confidence in observed changes in extremes
depends on quality, quantity and availability of
analysis of data
• Low confidence in observed changes neither
implies nor excludes the possibility of changes!
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Summary and Conclusions
• Nonlinear growth – hard to imagine
• Climate is very complex with dangerous positive
feedback loops
• Complexity and nonlinearities lead to high
uncertainty
• Uncertainty neither good nor bad
• Action chosen according to what is at risk (= a lot)
• Can we afford to be optimistic?
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Literature
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IPCC (2007) 4th Assessment Report
IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme
evens and disasters to advance climate
change adaption (SREX)
IPCC (2012) Renewable energy sources and
climate change mitigation (SREEN)
PIRC (2012) Climate Factsheets,
www.pirc.info , climatesafety.org
PIRC (2008) Climate Safety, www.pirc.info,
climatesafety.org
WWF (2012) Living Planet Report 2012
http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com
http://climate.nasa.gov/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
free online courses:
• http://forecast.uchicago.edu/lectures.html
• https://www.eeducation.psu.edu/geosc10/
2012/06/13