Establishing Public Trust on Climate Science Teresa Myers, Ph.D. George Mason University BARRIERS TO TRUST IN CLIMATE SCIENCE Barriers to Trust in Climate Science •  Poli?cized environment •  Confusion about the state of the science •  It is oDen seen as a far away, not likely to impact me, issue AMERICANS’ BELIEFS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE Basic Beliefs About Climate Change •  Americans are convinced global warming is happening –  67% of Americans believe it is happening, 16% do not believe it is happening, and 18% don’t know •  A majority are convinced it is human caused –  54% of Americans believe it is caused mostly by human ac?vi?es and 32% mostly by natural changes •  A majority of Americans are worried –  16% of Americans are very worried and another 41% are somewhat worried –  68% think there will be more droughts and water shortages (data from April 2014) ***Preliminary data from poll conducted Sept. 30th – Oct. 19th, 2015, N = 1,330*** Global Warming’s Six Americas WHO AMERICANS TRUST ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of informa?on about global warming? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Climate Scien?sts Own religious leader* Pope Francis Somewhat or Strongly Trust TV Weather Reporters Barack Obama Somewhat or Strongly Distrust *Note: restricted to the 62% who said this ques?on applied to them ***Preliminary data from poll conducted Sept. 30th – Oct. 19th, 2015, N = 1,330*** Billy Graham How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of informa?on about global warming? 80% 73% 72% 70% 61% 58% 60% 53% 47% 50% 39% 40% 30% 58% 27% 42% 42% 28% 20% 10% 0% Climate Scien?sts Own religious leader* Pope Francis Somewhat or Strongly Trust TV Weather Reporters Barack Obama Somewhat or Strongly Distrust *Note: restricted to the 62% who said this ques?on applied to them ***Preliminary data from poll conducted Sept. 30th – Oct. 19th, 2015, N = 1,330*** Billy Graham Trust in Scien?fic Research of Federal Agencies Trust in Climate Science 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Data from a poll conducted April 24th to May 25th, 2012; N = 1,510 Trust in Scien?fic Research of Federal Agencies Trust in Climate Science 4 Very Liberal 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Data from a poll conducted April 24th to May 25th, 2012; N = 1,510 Trust in Scien?fic Research of Federal Agencies Trust in Climate Science 4 Moderate 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Data from a poll conducted April 24th to May 25th, 2012; N = 1,510 Trust in Scien?fic Research of Federal Agencies Trust in Climate Science 4 Very Conserva?ve 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Data from a poll conducted April 24th to May 25th, 2012; N = 1,510 IS THERE HOPE FOR TRUST IN CLIMATE SCIENCE? Reasons for Hope •  Trust is Moderate to High •  There are Opportuni?es for Educa?on •  Variety of Voices for Engaging a Variety of Audiences Trust is Moderate to High 80% 73% 72% 70% 61% 58% 60% 53% 47% 50% 39% 40% 30% 58% 27% 42% 42% 28% 20% 10% 0% Climate Scien?sts Own religious leader* Pope Francis Somewhat or Strongly Trust TV Weather Reporters Barack Obama Somewhat or Strongly Distrust *Note: restricted to the 62% who said this ques?on applied to them ***Preliminary data from poll conducted Sept. 30th – Oct. 19th, 2015, N = 1,330*** Billy Graham Trust is Moderate to High 4 3.5 Trust 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 General Science Climate Science General Science Climate Science General Science Climate Science Trust Trust Trust Trust Trust Trust Very Liberal NASA NOAA Smithsonian Moderate CDC NSF NPS Data from a poll conducted April 24th to May 25th, 2012; N = 1,510 Very Conserva?ve NIH USDA DOD EPA DOE Reasons for Hope •  Trust is Moderate to High •  There are Opportuni?es for Educa?on •  Variety of Voices for Engaging a Variety of Audiences Most Americans Don’t Know the Level of Scien?fic Agreement 100% 97% EsRmated ScienRfic Agreement 90% 80% 70% 63% 60% 49% 50% 40% 30% 20% Approximate actual level of Scien?fic Agreement Control 97.5% Scien?fic Agreement 97% 97 out of 100 Confidence Source: Myers, Maibach, Peters & Leiserowitz, (2015), PLoS ONE, DOI: e0120985 More than 9 out of An overwhelming 10 majority But They Adjust When They Hear a Credible Message 100% 97% EsRmated ScienRfic Agreement 90% 78% 80% 70% 63% 77% 68% 76% 67% 66% 59% 60% 49% 50% 68% 62% 45% 40% 30% 20% Approximate actual level of Scien?fic Agreement Control 97.5% Scien?fic Agreement 97% 97 out of 100 Confidence Source: Myers, Maibach, Peters & Leiserowitz, (2015), PLoS ONE, DOI: e0120985 More than 9 out of An overwhelming 10 majority …and it Influences their Other Beliefs Source: Van der Linden, S., et al. (2015), The Scien?fic Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief, PLoS ONE Most American’s Don’t Know Federal Agencies do Climate Science Research 50% 45% 40% 35% 46% 46% 45% 41% 41% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Data from a poll conducted April 24th to May 25th, 2012; N = 1,510 33% 31% 29% 24% 23% Smithsonian’s Statement, October 2014 Opportuni?es to “Meet” Scien?sts Reasons for Op?mism •  Trust is Moderate to High •  There are Opportuni?es for Educa?on •  Variety of Voices for Engaging a Variety of Audiences SIMPLE MESSAGES, REPEATED OFTEN, BY A VARIETY OF TRUSTED SOURCES Religious Voices 80% 73% 72% 70% 61% 58% 60% 53% 47% 50% 39% 40% 30% 58% 27% 42% 42% 28% 20% 10% 0% Climate Scien?sts Own religious leader* Pope Francis Somewhat or Strongly Trust TV Weather Reporters Barack Obama Somewhat or Strongly Distrust *Note: restricted to the 62% who said this ques?on applied to them ***Preliminary data from poll conducted Sept. 30th – Oct. 19th, 2015, N = 1,330*** Billy Graham Earlier this year, two significant events occurred: (1) Pope Francis released an encyclical en?tled: Laudato Si’: On Care for Our Common Home, a book length leoer which was intended to draw Chris?ans into a dialogue with one another and with all of humanity, about the implica?ons of climate change and other forms of environmental destruc?on and (2) He visited the US for five days in September, during which he urged ac?on on climate change at several events. We surveyed a panel of Americans both before (Feb/March, 2015) and aDer (Sept./Oct., 2015) these events. Pope’s Influence Increased Trust in the Pope as a source of informa?on about global warming increased among Americans overall (+11 pts) and among Catholics (+6) Many Americans (17%) and Catholics (35%) say the Pope’s posi?on has influenced their views Global Warming Became More Salient More Americans (+4pts) and more Catholics (+10) say they now hear about global warming in the media at least once a month or more frequently Americans overall (+6pts) and Catholics (+5) became more likely to discuss global warming with the friends or family oDen or occasionally Americans Became More Concerned More Americans overall and American Catholics think that people in developing countries (+15 and +17pts, respec?vely) and the world’s poor (+12 and +20pts, respec?vely) will be harmed by GW More Americans (+8pts) and more Catholics (+11pts) have become worried about GW TV Weather Reporters 80% 73% 72% 70% 61% 58% 60% 53% 47% 50% 39% 40% 30% 58% 27% 42% 42% 28% 20% 10% 0% Climate Scien?sts Own religious leader* Pope Francis Somewhat or Strongly Trust TV Weather Reporters Barack Obama Somewhat or Strongly Distrust *Note: restricted to the 62% who said this ques?on applied to them ***Preliminary data from poll conducted Sept. 30th – Oct. 19th, 2015, N = 1,330*** Billy Graham TV weathercasters are well-­‐posi?oned to educate Americans about climate change •  Trust of the public •  Access to the public •  Great communica?on skills Climate Maoers Was Born •  A team of climate scien?sts, social scien?sts, & TV weathercasters Heidi Cullen, PhD, Climatologist Climate Central Climate Maoers is Scaling Up 246 weathercasters to date… -­‐ 229 @ local sta?ons -­‐ 17 @ na?onal networks -­‐ 34 broadcas?ng in Spanish -­‐ 178 sta?ons -­‐ 104 markets …and growing Na?onal Park Service Trust in Climate Science 4 Very Conserva?ve 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Data from a poll conducted April 24th to May 25th, 2012; N = 1,510 NPS & 4C Team Up Reasons for Hope •  Trust in climate science is already moderate to high •  Hearing about the level of scien?fic agreement on climate change makes a difference •  Scien?sts and scien?fic organiza?ons are becoming increasingly savvy in presen?ng their messages in engaging ways •  A variety of voices are being heard Ques?ons or Comments? Climate Change EducaRon through TV Weathercasts: Results of a Field Experiment “The results of this field experiment suggest that when TV weathercasters educate their viewers about climate change, viewers gain a more science-­‐
based understanding of the issue.” Source: Zhao, Maibach, Gandy, Wioe, Cullen, Klinger, et al. (2013) BAMS. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-­‐D-­‐12-­‐00144.1 A Bigger P ilot Test Test markets: Washington DC/NOVA, Richmond, Roanoke Control markets: Norfolk, Charlooesville, Harrisonburg, Tri-­‐Ci?es A VA pilot project began with joy but ended with sorrow •  20 of 47 weathercasters in the test communi?es par?cipated: a 42% par?cipa?on rate! •  The weather was cooler (and weoer) than an?cipated throughout the period. •  Only a few weathercasters used Climate Maoers materials on-­‐
air; most used them in social media. •  No detectable viewer impact.