Oecologia (1999) 120:605±612 Ó Springer-Verlag 1999 Melinda D. Smith á Alan K. Knapp Exotic plant species in a C4-dominated grassland: invasibility, disturbance, and community structure Received: 9 February 1999 / Accepted: 12 May 1999 Abstract We used data from a 15-year experiment in a C4-dominated grassland to address the eects of community structure (i.e., plant species richness, dominance) and disturbance on invasibility, as measured by abundance and richness of exotic species. Our speci®c objectives were to assess the temporal and spatial patterns of exotic plant species in a native grassland in Kansas (USA) and to determine the factors that control exotic species abundance and richness (i.e., invasibility). Exotic species (90% C3 plants) comprised approximately 10% of the ¯ora, and their turnover was relatively high (30%) over the 15-year period. We found that disturbances signi®cantly aected the abundance and richness of exotic species. In particular, long-term annually burned watersheds had lower cover of exotic species than unburned watersheds, and ®re reduced exotic species richness by 80±90%. Exotic and native species richness were positively correlated across sites subjected to different ®re (r=0.72) and grazing (r=0.67) treatments, and the number of exotic species was lowest on sites with the highest productivity of C4 grasses (i.e., high dominance). These results provide strong evidence for the role of community structure, as aected by disturbance, in determining invasibility of this grassland. Moreover, a signi®cant positive relationship between exotic and native species richness was observed within a disturbance regime (annually burned sites, r=0.51; unburned sites, r=0.59). Thus, invasibility of this C4-dominated grassland can also be directly related to community structure independent of disturbance. Key words Community structure á Disturbance á Exotic species á Grassland á Invasibility M.D. Smith (&) á A.K. Knapp Kansas State University, Division of Biology, Ackert Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA e-mail: mendys@ksu.edu Introduction Many factors have been proposed as determinants of invasibility of plant communities (Robinson et al. 1995; Wiser et al. 1998), and the search for generalizations has proven dicult (Stohlgren et al. 1999b). However, from a number of anecdotal and empirical studies, several hypotheses have emerged concerning the central role that community structure (i.e., species richness, diversity, dominance) may have on invasibility. Elton (1958) ®rst proposed that species-poor communities would be more invasible, because interspeci®c competition is not as strong as in species-rich communities. In addition, species-poor communities may have more empty niches (Crawley 1987), allowing exotic species with characteristics not represented in the native ¯ora to establish (Richardson and Bond 1991). Several studies have supported this hypothesis by demonstrating a negative relationship between native and exotic species richness (Fox and Fox 1986; Rejmanek 1989; Woods 1993; Pysek and Pysek 1995; Tilman 1997). In contrast, a positive relationship between native and exotic species richness has been noted as well (Pickard 1984; Knops et al. 1995; Robinson et al. 1995; Planty-Tabacchi et al. 1996; Wiser et al. 1998). Species-rich communities may be more readily invaded than species-poor communities because those factors that increase the establishment of native species may also increase the establishment of exotic species (Crawley 1987). Alternatively, the lack of dominance of a community by one or a few species (Robinson et al. 1995), or higher spatial/temporal variability in abiotic or biotic factors associated with diverse communities may increase opportunities for the establishment of exotic species (Tilman 1996; Wiser et al. 1998). Although community structure may in¯uence invasibility, other factors, such as disturbances, may also be important (Crawley 1987; Hobbs and Huennuke 1992; Burke and Grime 1996). Disturbances such as grazing may directly enhance the success of invasive species by altering resource availability (Burke and Grime 1996; 606 McNaughton et al. 1997; but see Stohlgren et al. 1999a) or they may alter biotic interactions and community structure thereby indirectly aecting invasibility (Richardson and Bond 1991). Productivity is also altered by disturbances and this may in¯uence invasibility, with highly productive, low-diversity (high-dominance) sites being more resistant to invasions than less productive sites (Huston 1994; Burke and Grime 1996). Because disturbances aect community structure in several ways, it is dicult to separate direct from indirect eects on invasibility. There have been numerous studies of invasibility, but most lack adequate replication, are short term, and do not control for spatial scales (Burke and Grime 1996; Wiser et al. 1998). Moreover, many have been conducted after invasive species have become substantial components of communities (Burke and Grime 1996); these studies are therefore complicated by the invading species and their eects on community characteristics. Long-term, replicated studies that integrate the eect of disturbance and community structure on the dierent stages of the invasion process (e.g., establishment, persistence, and spread; Hobbs 1989) are needed to formulate generalizations regarding the factors that in¯uence invasiblity of plant communities. Furthermore, identifying these factors is critical for controlling present invasions, and preventing or predicting future invasions (Drake et al. 1989; Lodge 1993). The general objectives of this study were to (1) assess patterns of exotic plant species occurrence in a highly productive C4 grassland and (2) determine the factors that control invasibility, as measured by abundance and richness of exotic species. We used data from a 15-year experiment in a tallgrass prairie landscape that included dierent ®re frequency and grazing treatments to address the eects of community structure and disturbance on invasibility. Speci®cally, we hypothesized that the relationship between native and exotic plant species richness would be positive for this grassland and that exotic species richness would be negatively correlated with productivity. These hypotheses were based on previous studies that have shown that native plant species richness is lowest in the most productive sites, which are generally those subjected to high ®re frequencies (Briggs and Knapp 1995). On these sites, dominance, as measured by productivity of grasses, is high (Hulbert 1988; Briggs and Knapp 1995); therefore, we expected the abundance and richness of exotic species to be low on these sites. In contrast, on unburned or grazed sites native species richness is high (Collins et al. 1998); thus, we expected higher exotic species richness on these sites. Materials and methods Research was conducted at the Konza Prairie Research Natural Area (39°05¢ N, 96°35¢ W), a 3487-ha tallgrass prairie site in the Flint Hills region of eastern Kansas, USA, the largest contiguous tract of tallgrass prairie remaining in North America (Samson and Knopf 1994). The ¯ora of Konza Prairie is representative of the tallgrass prairie biome (see Freeman 1998 for a complete description) and is dominated by warm-season (C4) grasses, including Andropogon gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans. Since 1972, a split-plot experimental design incorporating watershed-level ®re frequency treatments (whole-plot treatment) has been implemented at Konza Prairie. This design includes 60 watersheds (ca 60 ha) subjected to spring ®res (April 15 20 days) at annual, 2-, 4-, 10-, and 20-year intervals, each replicated two to four times. All watersheds include distinct topographic gradients (sub-plot treatment), with soil type and depth varying from uplands to lowlands. Sites designated as the 20-year ®re frequency treatments are considered unburned when compared to other ®re frequency treatments. In fall 1987, 30 native ungulates, Bos bison, were reintroduced into a 469-ha portion of Konza Prairie. As the size of the herd increased to 200 bison, the total area grazed was expanded to a 1012-ha portion of prairie. Replicate annual ®re frequency treatments were also implemented at this time in the grazed portion of Konza Prairie. Prior to initiation of the experimental design in 1972, Konza Prairie was grazed by domesticated ungulates (cattle) and burned frequently (1- to 5-year intervals), which is typical management of tallgrass prairie sites in the Flint Hills. Species composition and aboveground biomass data collection began in 1983 and 1984, respectively, for ungrazed watersheds and in 1987 for grazed watersheds. Five permanent circular 10-m2 plots were located adjacent to four randomly placed transects in upland and lowland sites in each of two annual, 4-, and 20-year ®re frequency watersheds (n=20 plots/topographic position per watershed). For each circular plot, species composition was sampled twice during the growing season, once in late May and in mid to late August. Cover of each species was estimated using a modi®ed Daubenmire (1959) method and maximum cover values for the growing season were used in subsequent analyses. For estimates of aboveground net primary production (ANPP), peak aboveground biomass was harvested from 20 0.1-m2 quadrats, 5 located along each transect (Briggs and Knapp 1995). Biomass was separated into live (graminoid and forb) and dead components, dried, and weighed. Total biomass production was calculated as the sum of grass, forb, and current-year dead biomass. To determine if ®re frequency or topographic position aected exotic species composition, we focused our analyses on four ungrazed watersheds, two burned annually (26 and 20 ®res) and two long-term unburned. Because ®re history varied considerably for the 4- and 10-year ®re frequency watersheds, these were excluded from this analysis. Analyses were possible for two time periods, 1983±1987 and 1993±1997, due to sampling and treatment history constraints. The eects of treatments and temporal dynamics of percent cover and richness of exotic plant species were analyzed separately for each time period using repeated-measures mixedmodel analysis of variance (PROC MIXED; SAS 1997). Individual transects (50 m2) were treated as observational units so that four transects within a topographic position made up the experimental unit (200-m2 plot). We used least-squares means analysis (LSMEANS; SAS 1997) for comparisons of treatment means when appropriate. In addition, we tested for correlative relationships (i.e., Pearson's correlation analysis) between exotic plant species richness and native species richness, total annual ANPP, or aboveground grass production for data collected from 1983±1987 and 1993±1997. Eects of ®re history on exotic plant species richness were evaluated using data collected in 1997 from ten ungrazed watersheds with varying ®re frequencies, ranging from 26 ®res to no ®res over a 27-year period. Using transects as experimental units (50m2 plot), this relationship was analyzed using correlation analysis. Since the current grazing regime on Konza Prairie has only been in place since 1992 and ®re history for the grazed ®re frequency treatments diers considerably compared to the ungrazed watersheds, we did not analyze grazing eects directly. Instead, we evaluated the eects of native species richness, as in¯uenced by ®re and grazing, on exotic species richness using correlation analysis. This type of analysis allowed us to detect patterns of exotic species richness in watersheds that varied considerably in ®re/grazing regimes and in native species richness. 607 Results Temporal dynamics There was no signi®cant increase or decrease in cover or richness of exotic plant species during the 1983±1987 or 1993±1997 time periods. Average cover of exotic species was 0.013% in annually burned and 22.8% in unburned watersheds. Exotic species richness followed a similar pattern with <1 species per 200 m2 in annually burned sites and 3.8 species in unburned sites. Both exotic species richness and cover exhibited higher interannual variability in the absence of burning, but remained stable with annual burning (data not shown). In this C4-dominated grassland, exotic species typically comprised ~9% of the native ¯ora present over the 15year study period with 17 exotic versus 169 native species in unburned, 18 versus 193 in ungrazed, and 21 versus 230 in grazed sites. In annually burned prairie, exotic species were least common (9 exotic vs 138 native) and those exotic species found on annually burned or ungrazed sites were a subset of those found on unburned or grazed sites (Table 1). Most of the 22 exotic species encountered are C3 plants (90%) introduced from either Europe or Eurasia and are considered to be naturalized, i.e., introduced species able to reproduce and persist from year to year (Brooks 1986). Records indicate that 10 of these species were present in the Flint Hills Region prior to 1892, while the remainder were introduced some time after 1892 or more recently (after 1930) (Table 1). These species represent ten families, including the Poaceae (7 species), Asteraceae (3) and Fabaceae (3) (Table 1). Exotic species occurred more frequently in unburned or grazed sites than in annually burned or ungrazed sites (Table 1). Overall, many of the exotic species occurred only once or a few times (i.e., <5% frequency) during the study period. The total cover of exotic plant species was signi®cantly higher in unburned than in annually burned watersheds (mixed-model ANOVA: F=24.11, F=31.08, P < 0.05 for 1983±1987 and 1993±1997, respectively; Fig. 1a). The increased cover of exotic species did not appear to be related to decreased cover of native species (Fig. 1a). Exotic species richness was also higher on unburned sites, which paralleled higher native species richness on these sites (mixed-model ANOVA: F=20.91, F=131.91, P=0.01, respectively; Fig. 1b). For the analysis of ®re history, the number of ®res over a 27-year period for ungrazed sites ranged from 0 to 26. Fire frequency was negatively correlated with the number of exotic species found in plots in 1997 (Fig. 2). Thus, the cumulative Table 1 Exotic species found during the 15-year study period in 200-m2 plots located in burned, unburned, ungrazed, and grazed watersheds at Konza Prairie, Kansas (USA). Grazed and ungrazed watersheds had variable ®re histories. The percent frequency for each treatment was determined by recording the number of times each species was present during the study period and dividing by the total number of plots sampled a (Life form: A = annual, B = biennial, A/B = annual or biennial, P = perennial; frequency <5% indicates that a species occurred less than three times over the study period) Family Amaranthaceae Asteraceae Brassicaceae Chenopodiaceae Convolvulaceae Fabaceae Lamiaceae Poaceae Polygonaceae Scrophulariaceae a Species Amaranthus retro¯exusb Lactuca serriolaa Taraxacum ocinalea Tragopogon dubiusc Lepidium densi¯orumb Thlapsi arvenseb Chenopodium albuma Convolvulus arvensisa Lespedeza stipulaceac Melilotus albaa Melilotus ocinalisb Lamium amplexicauleb Bromus inermisb Bromus japonicusb Bromus tectorumb Poa compressac Poa pratensisa *Setaria glaucaa *Setaria viridisa Rumex crispusa Verbascum blattariaa Veronica agrestisc Fire and ®re history Life form A A P B A/B A A P A A/B A/B A P A A P P A A P B A Frequency (%) Burned Unburned Ungrazed Grazed ± 24.0 <5 28.0 12.0 ± ± ± ± ± <5 ± 20.0 14.0 <5 ± 34.0 ± ± ± ± ± <5 90.0 10.0 37.5 32.5 <5 <5 15.0 ± <5 ± ± 27.5 25.0 10.0 <5 100.0 ± <5 ± <5 <5 <5 53.3 6.7 32.2 21.1 <5 <5 6.7 ± <5 <5 ± 23.3 18.9 5.6 <5 63.3 ± <5 ± <5 <5 ± 47.5 <5 45.0 85.0 7.5 22.5 15.0 15.0 ± <5 <5 72.5 72.5 <5 ± 87.5 17.5 ± <5 17.5 ± Present in the Flints Hills prior to 1892 (Smyth 1892) Present in the Flint Hills after 1892 (Barker 1968) c Present in the Flint Hills after 1930 (McGregor 1976; Great Plains Flora Association 1986) * C4 species b 608 eects of ®re signi®cantly reduced the presence of exotic plant species in this grassland. Productivity and topography Exotic species richness was negatively correlated with total ANPP and total aboveground grass production (Fig. 3). Richness of exotic plant species was also affected by topographic position. Although not signi®cant for the 1983±1987 time period, exotic species richness was higher in upland sites (with lower ANPP; Briggs and Knapp 1995) compared to lowland sites for the 1993± 1997 time period (mixed-model ANOVA: F=8.24, P=0.0173). Native versus exotic species richness For annually burned and unburned watersheds that were not grazed, native species richness was positively correlated with exotic species richness over the 15-year study period (Fig. 4a). Disproportionate sampling of sites with either low or high richness did not cause this relationship. The distribution of richness in the sampled plots was normal, most of the plots having between 45 and 65 native plant species, which approximates the average richness for all plots sampled (Fig. 4a inset). Although fewer plots fell within the low or high ends of this distribution, these plots consistently had either zero or the highest number of exotic species. There was also a Fig. 1 Total cover (%) of native and exotic plant species in annually burned and unburned grassland at Konza Prairie (a). Total richness (per 200 m2) of native and exotic plant species in watersheds that diered in ®re frequency (b). For each ®re frequency treatment, data were averaged for two time periods (1983±1987 and 1993±1997) which had consistent treatment and sampling history. Error bars represent +1 SE of the mean and asterisks indicate signi®cant (P < 0.05) dierences between ®re treatments within each time period Fig. 2 Relationship between number of ®res in the last 27 years and exotic plant species richness (per 200 m2) for ungrazed watersheds at Konza Prairie. Data are for 1997. Error bars represent 1 SE of the mean Fig. 3 a Relationship between total aboveground net primary production and exotic plant species richness (per 200 m2) for burned and unburned watersheds (all ungrazed) on Konza Prairie over the 15-year study period. b Relationship between grass biomass production and exotic plant species richness (per 200 m2) for burned and unburned watersheds (all ungrazed). Error bars represent 1 SE of the mean 609 respectively, were annually burned, and exotic species richness increased approximately twofold in these sites. Discussion Fig. 4 a Relationship between native and exotic plant species richness (per 200 m2) for burned and unburned watersheds (all ungrazed) at Konza Prairie over the 15-year study period. Inset: distribution of annually burned and unburned plots in dierent native species richness classes. b Relationship between native and exotic plant species richness (per 200 m2) for burned and unburned watersheds subjected to dierent grazing treatments. Inset: distribution of grazed and ungrazed plots in dierent native species richness classes. Error bars represent 1 SE of the mean consistent relationship between ®re frequency and the number of native and exotic plant species; annually burned plots had the lowest native and exotic species richness (native range: 25±65), whereas unburned plots had the highest native and exotic species richness (native range: 45±85). Native species richness was also found to be positively correlated with exotic species richness when grazing treatments, both burned and unburned, were included in the analysis (Fig. 4b). The frequency distribution of plots sampled was normal and the highest number of sampled plots fell within the 55±65 native species class, which approximates the mean for all plots sampled (Fig. 4b inset). Grazing increased both native and exotic species richness in annually burned sites. In the absence of grazing, there were no annually burned plots that fell within the 65±75 or 75±85 native species classes. However, with grazing, 26% and 17% of the plots sampled in these native species richness classes, The 22 exotic plant species found in this C4-dominated grassland comprised less than 10% of the native ¯ora on the study sites, and approximately 30% of these exotic species occurred less that three times during the 15-year study period. These results indicate that while turnover (i.e., local extinction) of some exotic species was relatively high, the majority of exotics are able to persist from year to year. As well as being temporally dynamic, these exotic species were not evenly distributed across the landscape. Patterns of disturbance strongly aected exotic species cover and richness over the 15-year study period. In particular, long-term annually burned sites had low cover and few, if any, exotic species, whereas richness and cover of exotic species was as much as ®ve times higher in long-term unburned sites (Figs. 1, 2). In grasslands, disturbances such as ®re and grazing create sites with a wide range of productivity and native species richness, both of which vary temporally and spatially (McNaughton 1985; Frank et al. 1998; Knapp et al. 1998). This range in productivity and native species richness was correlated with exotic species richness in this grassland. The sites with lowest productivity and highest native species richness had the highest number of exotic species (Figs. 3, 4). These results indicate that disturbance in¯uences invasibility, as measured by the abundance and richness of exotic species. Fire and grazing by native ungulates (B. bison) separately and together strongly in¯uence tallgrass prairie community structure (Collins et al. 1998; Knapp et al. 1999). Therefore, it is not surprising that these disturbances aected exotic species. Annually burned watersheds had lower cover and richness of exotic species than unburned watersheds (Figs. 1, 4) and, although the effects of grazing could not be tested directly, higher exotic species richness was associated with both annually burned and unburned grazing treatments (Fig. 4). Invasibility of grasslands and other plant communities has been shown to be disturbance-related (Rejmanek 1989; Robinson et al. 1995; Kotanen et al. 1998; Stepanian et al. 1998) with changes in disturbance intensity or frequency often a prerequisite for establishment of exotic species (Crawley 1987; Richardson and Bond 1991; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; Burke and Grime 1996). Disturbance can enhance invasibility by allowing for greater coexistence of competitors (Lodge 1993), which may result from a number of interacting factors, such as altered productivity, dominance, or increased heterogeneity of resources or microsites. Fire increases biomass production and abundance of the dominant C4 grasses and decreases production and abundance of the subdominant grasses and C3 forbs in this grassland (Briggs and Knapp 1995; Hartnett and Fay 1998). Our analysis revealed that ANPP was 610 strongly negatively related to exotic species richness (Fig. 3). Peart and Foin (1985) found that invasion success was negatively related to biomass, but not to richness or composition of native species. We also observed a negative relationship between total aboveground grass biomass and exotic species richness. Total ANPP is comprised mainly (i.e., >60%) of C4 grass biomass (Hulbert 1988; Briggs and Knapp 1995). Therefore, community dominance, measured as production of C4 grasses, appears to negatively aect abundance and richness of exotic plant species. Dominance has been reported to in¯uence establishment and richness of exotic species in other plant communities as well (DeFerrari and Naiman 1994; Burke and Grime 1996). Establishment and persistence of invaders may be prevented because one to a few species are able to physically exclude invaders or compete more eectively for limiting resources (Robinson et al. 1995). In this productive C4 grassland, ®re alters the availability of nitrogen, moisture, and light. Because resource availability is reduced after ®re, interspeci®c competition for resources is likely higher in burned than in unburned grassland (Knapp et al. 1998). Moreover, plant density is much higher in burned than unburned sites (Knapp 1985; Hulbert 1988), increasing competition by the dominant C4 grasses, and reducing diversity and richness of subdominant grasses and forbs (Collins et al. 1998). Thus, annual burning, by increasing the dominance (i.e., production) of C4 grasses, may indirectly prevent establishment or persistence of exotic species. Although these results demonstrate that ®re reduces the presence of exotic species in this productive grassland, the strong positive relationship between native and exotic species richness in grazed sites (regardless of ®re treatment) suggests that grazing may be a more important determinant of invasibility. By reducing the cover and dominance of the C4 grasses, grazing by B. bison increases overall richness and diversity of native species due to competitive release of the subdominant forb species and increased spatial heterogeneity (Collins et al. 1998; Knapp et al. 1999). These factors may increase the abundance and richness of exotic species as well because more species can potentially coexist in sites with greater microsite diversity and reduced competition (Tilman 1996; Palmer and Maurer 1997; Wiser et al. 1998). Moreover, grazing, by reducing the dominance of C4 grasses, appears to increase the invasibility of sites that would otherwise have low abundance and richness of exotic species. This was demonstrated by an increase in the number of exotic species in annually burned watersheds that were grazed (Fig. 4). In contrast to the grazing eects observed in this study, in shortgrass steppe, the abundance of exotic species was highest on ungrazed sites (Milchunas et al. 1989). Dierences in community characteristics between the two grasslands can help explain this inconsistency. Milchunas et al. (1989) suggested that lack of grazing was more of a disturbance in shortgrass steppe, which has evolved under heavy grazing pressures. Grazing in shortgrass steppe increases productivity, cover, and dominance of the C4 grasses, thereby reducing abundance of subdominant forb species, whereas grazing in tallgrass prairie reduces the dominance of the C4 grasses. These ®ndings emphasize the importance of community dominance, as measured by production of a few species, rather than disturbance in controlling invasibility in dierent plant communities. In general, exotic species richness in this C4-dominated grassland was positively related to native species richness (Fig. 4) supporting the hypothesis that speciesrich communities are more invasible than species-poor communities (Wiser et al. 1998). Others have demonstrated a similar relationship between invasibility and community structure for plant communities ranging from grasslands to forests (Pickard 1984; Knops et al. 1995; Robinson et al. 1995; Planty-Tabacchi et al. 1996). The opposite relationship (i.e., greater invasion susceptibility of species-poor communities) has been observed for several shrub and forest communities (Fox and Fox 1986; Woods 1993), a wide range of habitats in the Czech Republic (Pysek and Pysek 1995), and oak savanna (Tilman 1997). The latter relationship may be due to a negative in¯uence of the invader(s) on native species richness in the post-invasion community (Wiser et al. 1998) or may be a consequence of using measures of invasibility (e.g., exotic species richness expressed as a proportion of native species richness) that are highly dependent upon initial native species richness (Rejmanek 1989). Although the relationship between grassland community structure and invasibility is strong, it is dicult to separate the direct eects of community structure from the eects of disturbances that alter the dominance (i.e., production of C4 grasses) and richness of native plant species. In other words, rather than community structure itself in¯uencing invasibility, disturbance may directly aect invasibility of plant communities independent of eects on community structure. For example, grazing leads to increased N availability (McNaughton et al. 1997), whereas ®re reduces available N in grasslands (Blair 1997). Wedin and Tilman (1996) noted that the abundance of exotic species in grasslands increased after N fertilization. This suggests that increased N in grazed grassland could be an alternative mechanism enhancing invasibility (Stohlgren et al. 1999a). To eliminate these eects of disturbance, we conducted correlation analyses to determine if community structure-invasibility patterns observed among watersheds (and treatments) would be evident within a disturbance regime. Within annually burned and unburned watersheds, there was still a strong positive relationship between native and exotic species richness (r=0.51 and r=0.59, respectively; both P < 0.05), supporting the role that community structure (i.e., native species richness) plays in determining the invasibility of this grassland. In conclusion, results from this study support the hypothesis that species-rich communities are more invasible than species-poor communities. At the landscape 611 level, invasibility can be aected by disturbances directly and indirectly through altered community structure. At smaller spatial scales (i.e., within watersheds), community structure in¯uences invasibility independent of disturbance. These results should be viewed with some caution because the exotic species encountered in this study comprise a minor component of the vegetation and do not appear to be increasing in abundance over time, and therefore are not comparable to those exotic species (i.e., invaders) that establish in an intact community, dominate or displace native vegetation, and alter ecosystem function (Vitousek et al. 1997). Despite these limitations, these ®ndings may have important implications for preventing or predicting future invasions, because they provide insight into factors in¯uencing the persistence of exotic species. For example, we would predict that more aggressive invaders which currently threaten these grasslands, such as A. bladhii (Caucasian bluestem) and Lespedeza sericea (sericea lespedeza), would be more likely to establish and persist in areas of high diversity or those subjected to grazing. Furthermore, grasslands and other ecosystems are threatened by fragmentation as well as increased N deposition (Wedin and Tilman 1996; Vitousek et al. 1997), both of which may increase invasion by exotic species. Leach and Givnish (1996) suggested that fragmented grasslands should be burned frequently to reduce the risk of invasions. Since frequent burning also can reduce biodiversity, Knapp et al. (1999) suggested that incorporating a range of natural disturbance regimes (burning and grazing) might prevent the loss of native species. However, results from this long-term study indicate that grazing, regardless of ®re frequency treatment, may increase the risk of invasion of this C4-dominated grassland by exotic species. Therefore, managing for maximum diversity (i.e., enhanced ecosystem stability and processes; Tilman 1996) in these grasslands may lead to greater establishment and persistence of exotic species over time. 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