UNCTAD
Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities
and Development 2013
Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy
options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable development
Room XXVI
Palais des Nations
Geneva, Switzerland
Review and outlook for Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc
Don Smale
Secretary-General
International Lead and Zinc Study Group
International Copper Study Group
International Nickel Study Group
20 MARCH 2013
This material has been reproduced in the language and form as it was provided. The views expressed are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
Review and outlook for Copper, Nickel,
Lead and Zinc
Don Smale
Secretary-General
International Lead and Zinc Study Group
International Copper Study Group
International Nickel Study Group
UNCTAD Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development
Geneva, 20-21 March 2013
1
International Copper Study Group
Introduction
 Formally established in 1992, following a series of
UNCTAD expert meetings on copper.
 Headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal.
 Co-located with International Lead and Zinc Study
Group and International Nickel Study Group since 2006.
 The Group is an intergovernmental organization
consisting of 23 member governments plus the European
Union representing copper producing and using countries
International Copper Study Group
2
ICSG - MEMBERSHIP
 Membership is open to any country involved in copper
production, consumption or international trade.
Last two countries joining in 2011/2012: Zambia and Iran
 Current members are: Australia, Belgium, Chile, China,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Iran, Italy, Japan,
Luxembourg, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Portugal, the Russian
Federation, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, the United States,
Zambia and the European Commission.
Possible new Member Countries: Mongolia, Brazil and DRC
International Copper Study Group
3
ICSG - MAIN OBJECTIVES &
FUNCTIONS
To conduct consultations and exchanges of information on
the international copper economy.
To improve statistics on copper.
To increase market transparency.
To undertake studies on issues of interest to the Group.
To consider special problems or difficulties that exist or may
arise in the international copper economy.
ICSG endeavours to provide its membership with the most
accurate, comprehensive and timely information on
capacities, production, usage, trade, stocks, prices,
technologies, research and development, and other areas
that may influence the supply and demand for copper.
International Copper Study Group
4
A FORUM FOR DISCUSSION
• Markets: forecasts of supply and demand for metals a
year ahead
• Trade: monitoring of international trade in metals
• Environmental policy: sharing information on
approaches to regulation
• Industry Advisory Panel: metals industry executives
provide input to member governments
• Invite observer countries, industry and observer
organizations such as UNCTAD, World Bank, UNIDO,
Common Fund for Commodities and metals
associations
International Copper Study Group
5
ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS
Directory of Copper Mines & Plants (semi-annual): The Directory of
Copper Mines and Plants highlights current capacity and provides a five
year outlook of forecasted capacity for over 1,000 existing and planned
copper mines, plants and refineries on a country by country basis,
including separate tables for SX-EW plants. Salient details for each
operation are included and the Directory separates operations between
Operating & Developing and Exploration & Feasibility stages.
Directory of Copper & Copper Alloy Fabricators - First Use (annual):
This directory provides a systematic global overview of companies and
plants involved in the first use of copper. First users are mainly semis
fabricators that process refinery shapes into semi-finished copper and
copper alloy products. The Directory covers wire rod plants, ingot makers
(for castings), master alloy plants, brass mills, and electrodeposited
copper foil mills.
Publication prices refer to orders originating from institutions based in ICSG member countries
International Copper Study Group
6
ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS
Copper Bulletin (monthly): includes annual and monthly statistics, by
country, on copper mine, smelter, refined and semis production, copper
usage and trade, as well as stocks and exchange prices, providing a
global view of supply and demand.
Statistical Yearbook : As above, covering the past 10 years.
Monthly Press Release on the state of the copper market (to be included
in the email distribution list please contact mail@icsg.org)
World Copper Market Forecast: Prepared twice a year for the following
two years.
Copper Factbook: The Factbook provides a broad overview of all facets
of copper, from production to trade, usage, recycling and more. It is
designed to promote copper and educate readers about the importance
and contribution of copper to society. Available in ICSG Website, in PDF
and in hard copies.
Publication prices refer to orders originating from institutions based in ICSG member countries
International Copper Study Group
7
World Copper Reserves 2011
Resources: about
3000 million tonnes (Mt)
Reserves
690 Mt
contained copper metal
2011 Mine
Production
16.03 Mt
Not to scale
Sources: USGS
8
International Copper Study Group
World Copper Reserves
2011 Breakdown
Source: USGS
•
Despite increased
consumption of
copper produced from
ore in recent years,
increases in reserves
have grown more, and
there is more copper
available to the world
than at any other time
in the past.
Kazakstan
1%
DRC
3%
Canada
1%
Other
12%
Chile
28%
Zambia
3%
Poland
4%
Indonesia
4%
Russia
4%
China
4%
Peru
13%
United States
5%
Mexico
6%
Australia
12%
Mexico accounts for around 6% of World Copper Reserves reported by USGS
9
Average annual grow rate in the last century: 4%
Average annual grow rate in the last decade: 2.1 %
Average annual grow rate in the last 3 years: 1.2%
Source:10
ICSG
2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Mine Production
Mine production growth averaged a
disappointing 0.9% growth in the period 20082011 (concentrate growth was flat)
However smaller and medium size mine
projects stared in 2012 and 2012 production
recovered from 2011operational constrains
Capacity expansions occurring in Chile,
Mexico and Peru
20,000
18,000
16,000
Mine sx-ew world
Concentrates world
14,000
12,000
'000t Cu
The 2008 crisis had a severe impact on
copper projects development and the
postponement of many projects: no new
major project until 2012.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2006
8%
6%
The supply constraint factors that have
been affecting the copper industry in the last
few years will expected continue to impact
supply.
3%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
World concentrate production growth
World SX-EW production growth
7%
Major mine projects start by end 2013 and in
2014 boosting world production (eg. Oyu
Tolgoi)
2007
5%
4%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
2007
World copper mine production expected to
-2%
grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth of
about 3% in 2012
International Copper Study Group
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: ICSG
11
Distribution of Copper Mine Production
by Country
Brazil , 0.4%
Iran , 0.7%
Others, 16.3%
Kazakhstan ,
3.4%
Poland , 3.6%
1990
Chile , 17.2%
China , 3.2%
Peru , 3.3%
2014
Brazil , 1.7%
Iran , 1.6%
Others, 10.0%
Kazakhstan ,
2.0%
Poland , 2.2%
Chile , 29.3%
Mexico , 3.6%
Congo , 4.4%
Mexico , 3.6%
Congo , 3.9%
Indonesia ,
1.8%
Canada ,
8.6%
Zambia , 4.6%
United States
, 17.2%
Russian Fed. ,Australia ,
3.5%
8.7%
Indonesia ,
3.4%
Canada ,
3.6%
Zambia , 4.9%
Russian Fed. ,
4.0%
Australia ,
6.3%
China , 8.9%
Peru , 7.4%
United States
, 7.2%
Chile to continue the biggest copper mine producer in the world
United States loosing share and Peru increasing its share
Mexico maintaining the same share at around 3.6%
Source:12
ICSG
2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Refined Production
2013 world refined production recovering
from extended maintenances occurring in
2012
Chinese refined production continuing its
strong expansion
Expected improved capacity utilization
rates at Indian refineries.
Two new refineries that started in Turkey
and in Kazakhstan in 2011 bringing new
supply in 2012/2013
Primary electrolytic refinery production to
remain constrained by shortage of
concentrates
World secondary production expected to
grow by 11% in 2013 and share in total
output to be around 19%
World copper refined production expected
to grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth
of about 2% in 2012
International Copper Study Group
'000t Cu
2012 Japanese refined production
recovered from low 2011 levels. (earthquake)
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
World Refined Production
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
18.0%
World primary refined production growth
16.0%
World secondary refined production growth
2012
2013
2014
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: ICSG
13
Distribution of Copper Refined Production
by Country
Others, 23.7%
China, 5.2%
1990
Chile, 11.1%
Japan, 9.3%
Mexico, 1.4%
Peru, 1.5%
Belgium, 1.8%
China, 30.0%
Spain, 2.0%
Mexico, 2.0%
Australia,
2.2%
Zambia, 3.3%
Spain, 1.6%
Peru, 1.7%
Belgium, 3.1%
Australia,
2.5%
Zambia, 4.1%
Poland, 3.2%
Korean Rep.,
1.7%
India, 0.4%
2014
Others, 16.2%
Poland, 2.5%
United States,
18.7%
Germany,
4.9%
Russian Fed.,
7.4%
Korean Rep.,
2.9%
India, 3.2%
Germany,
3.1%
Russian Fed.,
4.0%
Chile, 13.3%
Japan, 6.8%
United States,
5.3%
Strong growth in Chinese refined production, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to
30% by 2014
United States and Japan loosing share
Mexico growing from 1.4% to 2%
Source:14
ICSG
2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Usage
Copper consuming sectors growth linked to the performance of the world economy.
World GDP should pick up gradually during 2013/2014 supporting global usage growth.
However regional divergences occur with lower growth in some regions than others. Globally,
the downside risk remains elevated
Stimulus packs by some governments supportive of usage growth
Improved outlook for the US economy, lower wirerod imports and new wirerod plant positive
for usage in 2012-2014
Uncertainty on EU sovereign debt issues and economy contraction negatively impacting
usage in 2012 with small recovery anticipated for 2013 and 2014
Japan’s usage is expected to remain practically unchanged in the period 2012-2014
Indian urbanization and industrialization should continue to boost copper usage and
supporting growth in 2013 and 2014.
Unstable political situation in the Middle East and North Africa affecting usage in the region in
2011-2012 and only small growths expected for 2013-2014
Global green applications such as wind farms are a growing sector boosting world copper
usage.
Substitution remains a threat when copper prices remain high.
In 2012, China apparent usage growth (+11%) inflated by high net cathode imports. However,
anecdotal evidence suggests that the high imports were accompanied by an increase in
inventories held in bonded warehouses. Chinese usage growth in 2013/2014 expected to be
lower than in previous years.
International Copper Study Group
15
Distribution of Copper Refined Usage
by Country
1990
China , 5%
Others, 26%
United States ,
20%
Belgium ,
1.3%
Mexico , 1.5%
Others, 15%
Spain , 1.8%
Turkey , 2.1%
Belgium ,
3.6%
Mexico , 1.2%
Spain , 1.3%
Turkey , 0.9%
Brazil , 1.3%
Taiwan , 2.5%
China , 42%
Brazil , 2.1%
Taiwan , 2.0%
Germany , 9%
Italy , 2.9%
India , 3.3%
Japan , 14.5%
Italy , 4.4%
India , 1.2%
Russian fed. ,
5.5%
2014
Korean Rep. ,
2.9%
Russian fed. ,
3.1%
Korean Rep. ,
3.8%
Japan , 4.6%
United States ,
9%
Germany , 6%
Strong growth in Chinese refined usage, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to more
than 40% by 2014
United States share in world usage declining from 20% to 9%
Mexico growing slightly from 1.2% to 1.5%
Source:16
ICSG
Major Uses of Copper: Usage by Region and End Use
Sector, 2010
Basis: copper content, thousand metric tonnes
Source: International Copper Association
Europe
22%
North
America
10% Latin
America
6%
Building
Construction
32%
Equipment
54%
Infrastructure
14%
Asia
62%
International Copper Study Group
17
ICSG World Copper forecast (Oct 2012) – summary table
FORECAST TO 2013
REGIONS
(1000 t)
MINE PRODUCTION
2011
2012
REFINED PRODUCTION
2013
2011
2012
REFINED USAGE
2013
2011
2012
2013
Africa
1,306
1,396
1,712
961
1,064
1,326
281
256
262
N.America
2,150
2,244
2,536
1,706
1,701
1,886
2,202
2,241
2,340
Latin America
6,848
6,993
7,209
3,717
3,463
3,606
600
608
641
765
653
909
517
398
575
734
788
819
1,768
1,977
2,298
8,048
8,772
9,367
11,331
12,005
12,014
Asia-CIS
470
487
500
428
447
472
99
100
101
EU-27
788
804
814
2,716
2,768
2,790
3,295
3,137
3,207
Europe Others
832
853
870
1,080
1,049
1,095
1,202
1,120
1,173
Oceania
1,092
1,118
1,300
477
503
504
120
122
125
TOTAL
16,019
16,524
18,147
19,651
20,166
21,620
19,865
20,376
20,682
World adjusted 1/ 2/
16,019
16,479
17,533
19,651
19,950
21,140
19,865
20,376
20,682
2.9%
6.4%
1.5%
6.0%
2.6%
1.5%
-426
458
Asean-10
Asia ex Asean/CIS
% change
Refined Production - Usage Balance
-214
1/ Based on a formula for the difference between the projected copper availability in concentrates and the projected use in primary refined
production; 2/ based on average ICSG forecast deviations for pre-recession years 2003/2007.
With production growth expected to exceed demand growth in 2013 and 2014, the market is foreseen to
return to surplus after three years of consecutive deficits
The International Copper Study Group recognized that numerous factors including a world economic slow down, European
Union sovereign debt issues, political disturbances in the Middle East and North Africa, and market price volatility create
significant uncertainty, and that the global market balances could vary from those projected
18
WORLD COPPER MINE CAPACITY BY REGION - 2012/2016
12,000
2012
10,000
10,263
2016
7,979
('000t Cu)
8,000
5,892
6,000
3,699
4,000
4,133
3,938
2,190
1,976 2,225
2,000
3,043
1,254 1,494
0
Africa
Asia
Europe
North
America
South America will remain the region with the largest
copper mine installed capacity and is expected to bring to
the market until 2016 an additional 2.3 Mt capacity.
Asian and African copper mining capacity also increasing
substantially.
All together, these three regions represent 78% of the
world additional copper mine production capacity to come
on stream by 2016.
South
America
Oceania
GROWTH
2012-2016
Oceania
South America
North America
Europe
Asia
Africa
0
500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February
19 2013
International Copper Study Group
COPPER MINE PROJECTS (cap > 100Ktpy Cu)
600
550
500
Resolution
Udokan
450
400
El Pachon
Tampakan
Las Bambas
350
Sentinel
Michiquillay
Cobre Panama
300
Toromocho
Reko Diq
Sierra Gorda
Quellaveco
Aynak
250
El Arco
Galore Creek
El Galeno
Rio Blanco
Mina Ministro Hales
(Mansa Mina)
Panantza
Pebble
Wafi Golpu
Frieda River
200
150
La Granja
El Relincho
Deziwa & Ecaille C
Agua Rica El Morro
Qulong
Tia Maria
Caserones
100
King King
Kamoa
Altar
Yandera
Los Azules
Junin
Shaft Creek
Cerro Casale
50
Total annual Capacity of Listed Projects : 9 Mt Cu
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February 2013
International Copper Study Group
20
Projected Copper Smelter Production Capacity Increase by Country
2,000
1,750
Expected increase until 2016
1,500
1,250
('000t Cu)
1,000
750
500
250
(1) Future possible new/expanded smelters in Mongolia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia , Brazil, Philipines,
Indonesia and Tanzania
Potential (1)
Brazil
Others
Mexico
Indonesia
Zambia
India
Iran
-250
China
0
China will continue to increase its smelting capacity through expansions and new projects.
Some expansions, new projects occuring in other few countries
Indonesi new mining law on banning ore exports leading to the development of new
smelter projects in the country
In August 2010 Grupo Mexico announced plans for a smelter/refinery project (Empalme)
to start in Mexico in 2016 with a capacity of 350ktpy (development not yet confirmed)
Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – February 2013
International Copper Study Group
21
International Nickel
Study Group
An Autonomous International Governmental
Organization
Co-located in Lisbon, Portugal with
International Lead & Zinc and Copper Study
Groups, resulting in significant cost savings
Enhancement of market transparency in the
world nickel market
Forum for discussions on nickel issues.
INSG Member Countries
Australia
Brazil
Cuba
European Union
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Japan
Norway
Portugal
Russian
Federation
Sweden
United
Kingdom
World Nickel Ore
Production (2/2)
in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f)
(2154.7)
2003
(1257.3)
Oceania
25%
Europe
21%
Africa
6%
Asia
16%
Africa
5%
Oceania
19%
Americas
32%
Europe
18%
Americas
23%
Asia
36%
(f) forecast October 2012;
Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel
Production (1/2)
in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2012;
Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel
Production (2/2)
in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f)
(1849.0)
2003
(1184.5)
Americas
24%
Asia
19%
Africa
5%
Oceania
15%
Europe
37%
Asia
41%
Americas
18%
Africa
3%
Oceania
11%
Europe
28%
(f) forecast October 2012;
Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel
Usage (consumption) (1/2)
in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2012;
Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel
Usage (consumption) (2/2)
in 1000 tonnes
2013 (f)
(1755.2)
2003
(1218.6)
Europe
41%
Europe
21%
Oceania
0.2%
Oceania
0.2%
Africa
2%
Africa
3%
Asia
43%
Americas
14%
Asia
67%
Americas
10%
(f) forecast October 2012;
Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Balance annual
in 1000 tonnes
(f) forecast October 2012;
Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
Primary Nickel Capacity
by Country
New committed developments:
 0.5Mt
2011:  1.7Mt
CANADA
10%
BRAZIL
7%
CHINA P.R.
9% COLOMBIA
3%
AUSTRIA
0%
AUSTRALIA
8%
ZIMBABWE
1%
CANADA
10%
NORWAY
2%
CHINA P.R.
8%
GREECE
1%
VENEZUELA
1%
UK
2%
UKRAINE
1%
SOUTH
AFRICA
3%
SERBIA
(KOSOVO)
1%
BRAZIL
27%
CUBA
3%
DOM. REP.
2%
FINLAND
3%
FRANCE
1%
FYROM
1%
INDONESIA
2%
JAPAN
10%
RUSSIAN FED.
19%
NORWAY
5%
CUBA
4%
NEW CALEDONIA
23%
KOREA
2%
NEW
CALEDONIA
3%
Note: excluding NPI.
JAPAN
6%
MYANMAR
4%
MADAGASCAR
11%
New
producing
countries
KOREA
5%
New Nickel Capacity on
Stream / Ramp Up
Project Name / Country
Product
Mode
Estimated
Production
Projected Total
Production
Remarks
Ambatovy / Madagascar
Class I
Ramp Up
≈ 35 000
60 000
Open market
Tagaung Taung / Myanmar
FeNi
Ramp Up
≈ 10 000
22 000
China
Koniambo / New Caledonia
FeNi
Start Up
≈ 16 000
60 000
Open market
Onça Puma / Brazil
FeNi
Ramp Up
≈ 30 000
58 000
Open market
Barro Alto / Brazil
FeNi
Ramp Up
≈ 27 000
36 000
Open market
Goro / New Caledonia
Semi / Class I
Ramp Up
≈ 26 000
60 000
Australia & China
Ramu / PNG
Semi
Ramp Up
≈ 13 000
30 000
China & Other
Talvivaara / Finland
Semi
Ramp Up
≈ 18 000
35 000
Finland
Raventhorpe / Australia
Semi
Ramp Up
≈ 33 000
39 000
Australia & Other
Santa Rita / Brazil
Conc.
Ramp Up
≈ 23 000
25 000
Brazil & Finland
Kevitsa / Finland
Conc.
Start Up
≈ 9 000
10 000
Open market
Long Harbour / Canada
Class I
Start Up
≈ 10 000
50 000
Mainly replacement
Taganito / The Philippines
Semi
Start Up
≈ 6 000
30 000
Japan
Note: no Chinese NPI projects included.
World Nickel Ore
Production 2010 to 2013 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area
2010
2011
2012
% change
% change
2013
(f)
% change
Africa
80.1
79.5
-0.8
89.5
12.5
101.0
12.9
America
367.2
482.7
31.5
488.1
1.1
490.0
0.4
Asia
504.8
662.4
31.2
732.5
10.6
780.0
6.5
Europe
325.4
361.5
11.1
343.5
-5.0
377.7
9.9
Oceania
298.4
346.1
16.0
375.8
8.6
406.0
8.0
Total
1575.8
1932.3
22.6
2029.4
5.0
2154.7
6.2
(f) forecast October 2012;
Asia adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel Production
2010 to 2013 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area
2010
2011
2012
% change
% change
2013
(f)
% change
Africa
36.0
36.4
1.0
41.7
14.6
56.5
35.6
America
229.0
272.4
18.9
295.2
8.4
332.0
12.5
Asia
538.0
628.7
16.9
724.4
15.2
750.0
3.5
Europe
501.6
525.1
4.7
511.6
-2.6
509.0
-0.5
Oceania
141.4
150.2
6.2
176.5
17.5
201.5
14.2
Total
1446.0
1612.7
11.5
1749.4
8.5
1849.0
5.7
(f) forecast October 2012;
Americas, Asia and Europe adjusted in March 2013.
World Primary Nickel
Usage 2010 to 2013 (f)
in 1000 tonnes
Area
2010
2011
2012
% change
% change
2013
(f)
% change
Africa
24.0
23.9
-0.4
25.3
5.9
27.2
7.5
America
153.2
165.0
7.7
168.7
2.2
180.3
6.9
Asia
929.4
1050.6
13.0
1105.7
5.2
1170.0
5.8
Europe
355.9
364.5
2.4
359.3
-1.4
374.9
4.3
Oceania
2.7
2.7
0.0
2.7
0.0
2.8
3.7
1465.2
1606.7
9.7
1661.7
3.4
1755.2
5.6
Total
(f) forecast October 2012;
Asia adjusted in March 2013.
The impact of Asia and China
Nickel Usage (Consumption)
tonnes
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
World ex-Asia
800,000
600,000
Asia ex-China
400,000
China
200,000
0
2005
Asia: 47%
China: 15%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Asia: 66%
China: 46%
Nickel Product Substitution
• Europe & North America:
– Nickel scrap units are replacing primary nickel in not only stainless
steel, but also in alloyed steel and high nickel alloys where possible.
• China PR:
– Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) is replacing primary nickel and to some extent
stainless steel scrap due to cost and easy availability.
• India:
– Nickel scrap units are increasing faster than primary nickel in stainless
steel.
• Conclusion:
– The nickel market is changing all the time and currently nickel supply
and demand is working differently around the world with China
developing the usage of NPI and Europe, India & North America is
going the scrap route more and more.
Comments
• What effect will the new nickel projects currently
coming on stream and ramping up have on the
market?
• Nickel pig iron production and usage in China:
– what effect would that have on the world nickel
market, including ore availability, price and
scrap?
• Will nickel remain an attractive investment object
and store of value in the future?
ILZSG Overview

Intergovernmental organization set up within the UN system

Significant level of industry representation

Established by UN in 1959 in New York

Moved to London in 1977
 From start of 2006 ILZSG,
ICSG & INSG co-located in
Lisbon, Portugal
www.icsg.org
www.insg.org
38 38
ILZSG Membership

Membership open to any country involved in lead and/or zinc
production, usage, or trade.

30 members (>85% of global lead/zinc industry):
Australia
Germany
Morocco
Serbia
Belgium
India
Namibia
South Africa
Brazil
Iran
Netherlands
Sweden
Bulgaria
Ireland
Norway
Thailand
Canada
Italy
Peru
United States
China
Japan
Poland
Finland
Korea Rep.
Mexico
Portugal
European
Community
France
Russian Fed.
39 39
ILZSG Main Publications
50% Discount
For companies
based in member
countries

Lead and Zinc Statistics: ILZSG’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin

Lead and Zinc New Mine and Smelter Projects 2013

Study on Chinese Zn First Use Market 2012

The By-Products of Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel

Indian Lead Market 2012

The Market for Lead: Fundamentals Driving Change 2012

World Directory: Primary and Secondary Lead Plants 2011

Environment and Health Controls on Lead 2011

Environment and Health Controls on Zinc 2011

China Lead Acid Battery Market (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)

China Zinc Recycling Industry (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)
40
World Zinc Reserves 2011
Resources: about
1900 million tonnes (Mt)
Reserve Base
480 Mt
Not to scale
Reserves
250 Mt
contained zinc metal
Mine
Production
13.0 Mt
Sources: USGS, ILZSG
41
World Zinc Reserves
2011 Breakdown
•
Despite increased
consumption of zinc
produced from ore in
recent years, increases
in reserves have
grown more, and
there is more zinc
available to the world
than at any other time
in the past.
China
17%
Australia
22%
Source: USGS
Peru
7%
Kazakhstan
5%
Mexico
7%
Other
35%
USA
5%
Canada
2%
Mexico accounts for 7% of World Zinc Reserves
42
Falling Lead and Zinc Mine Grades
% Zn
% Pb
7,5
2,8
Zn (LHS)
7,3
2,7
7,1
Pb (RHS)
2,6
6,9
2,5
6,7
6,5
2,4
6,3
2,3
6,1
2,2
5,9
2,1
5,7
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Macquarie Research
5,5
2000
2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
43
Distribution of Lead Metal Supply
2011
2001
Other
13%
Australia
Korea
4%
Mexico
3%
China
15%
3%
Japan
5%
Europe
30%
Europe
Mexico Australia Korea
4% Japan 17%
3%
2%
2%
Canada
Other
3%
12%
USA
13%
USA
23%
Canada
4%
China
44%
Source: ILZSG
44
Selected Lead Mine Openings/Expansions
2012 to 2014 (Committed* and Under Consideration)
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2013 Report, ILZSG
Mine
Annual Capacity
Open
(Pb metal contained)
George Fisher, Australia*
Magellan, Australia*
Potosi , Australia*
Keke Tale, China*
Kayar, India*
Garpenburg, Sweden*
Tala Hamza, Algeria
Admiral Bay, Australia
Browns Oxide Project, Australia
Browns Sulphide Project, Australia
McArthur River (expansion), Australia
Mount Isa Super Pit, Australia
120,000t
85,000t
14,000t
15,000t
15,000t
50,000t
36,000t
350,000t
70,000t
150,000t
93,000t
200,000t
2012 (36kt expansion)
2013 (reopening)
2012 (new)
2012 (new)
2013 (new)
2012 (20kt expansion)
45
Zinc Mine Supply
1963-2013f
'000 tonnes
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Macquarie Research
2000
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013f
46
Distribution of Zinc Mine Supply
2011
2001
Europe
12.0%
Mexico
4.8%
India
2.4%
Peru
10.3%
Other
34.8%
Australia
Australi
13.7%
China
20.1%
Europe
8.0%
Other
26.3%
Mexico
4.9%
India
6.4%
Australia
11.4%
Peru
9.7%
China
33.3%
Source: ILZSG
47
Selected Zinc Mine Openings/Expansions
2012 to 2014 (Committed* and Under Consideration)
Mine
Annual Capacity
Source: New Mines and Smelters 2013 Report, ILZSG
George Fisher, Australia*
Perkoa, Burkina Faso*
Bracemac-McLeod, Canada*
Keke Tale, China*
Valardena, Mexico*
Garpenburg, Sweden*
Tala Hamza, Algeria
Admiral Bay, Australia
Dugald River, Australia
McArthur River (expansion), Australia
Mount Isa Super Pit, Australia
Panorama, Australia
Gamsburg, South Africa
Ozernoye, Russia
Open
Zn Metal contained
215,000t
95,000t
90,000t
40,000t
90,000t
50,000t
164,000t
450,000t
200,000t
380,000t
300,000t
185,000t
350,000t
350,000t
2012 (64kt expansion)
2013 (new)
2013 (new)
2012 (new)
2013 (reactivation)
2012 (20kt expansion)
48
World Lead Demand Forecast
Annual Change
7.0%
ILZSG Forecast
6.0%
5.0%
• 2012
3.4 %
4.0%
3.0%
• 2013
3,3%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2009
2010
2011
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG
49
World Lead Mine Supply Forecast
Annual Change
12.0%
ILZSG Forecast
• 2012
10.9 %
• 2013
2.8%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG
50
World Lead Metal Supply Forecast
Annual Change
8.0%
ILZSG Forecast
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
• 2012
• 2013
2.9 %
4.0%
3.0%
3,8%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2009
20103
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG
51
Lead Metal World Balance
200
'000 tonnes
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
Source: ILZSG
-250
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
2013f
52
Zinc Stocks and Prices
Oct 2006 – Oct 2012
2200
'000 tonnes
US $ per tonne
monthly average
2000
1800
5000
4500
4000
1600
3500
1400
3000
1200
2500
1000
2000
800
1500
600
400
1000
200
500
Source: ILZSG / LME
0
Oct-06
0
Oct-07
SRB+SHEFE
Oct-08
Oct-09
Producers+Consumers+LME
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Zinc LME Cash Settlement Price
53
World Zinc Metal Demand Forecast
Annual Change
ILZSG Forecast
• 2012
• 2013
–0.3 %
3.8%
14.0%
9.0%
4.0%
-1.0%
-6.0%
2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG
54
World Zinc Mine Supply Forecast
Annual Change
7.5%
ILZSG Forecast
5.0%
• 2012
5.0 %
2.5%
• 2013
2.7%
0.0%
-2.5%
2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013f
Source: ILZSG
55
World Zinc Metal Supply Forecast
Annual Change
ILZSG Forecast
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
•
2012
–2.0 %
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
•
2013 4.8%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
2009
2010
2011f
2012f
2013
Source: ILZSG
56
Zinc Metal World Balance
400
'000 tonnes
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
Source: ILZSG
-300
-400
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012f
2013f
57
Next Study Group Meetings in Lisbon, Portugal
● 22-23 April 2013
International Nickel Study Group
● Morning 24 April 2013
International Lead and Zinc Study Group
● 2.00pm 24 April 2013
Joint Study Groups Seminar “Financial Aspects of
the Metals Industry: Price Volatility, Investor Activity
and Project Financing”
● 25-26 April 2013
International Copper Study Group
58