Inter-American Development Bank Integration and Regional Programs Department Research Department MARKET ACCESS IN THE AMERICAS: AN UNFINISHED AGENDA Background document prepared by the Integration, Trade and Hemispheric Issues Division∗ for the seminar “Looking Beyond Our Borders: Opportunities and Challenges of the New Regionalism” Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors, Inter-American Development Bank And Inter-American Investment Corporation Fortaleza, Brazil March 11, 2002 ∗ This background document is based on several ongoing studies from the Integration, Trade and Hemispheric Issues Division of the Integration and Regional Programs Department of the IDB on market access issues. In particular, Chapter II is based on Estevadeordal, A. and M. Shearer (2002) “Trade Policy and Regional Integration in the Americas: A Quantitative Assessment”; Chapter III is based on Jank, M. and R. Finch (2002) “Perspectives for Agriculture in Multilateral and Regional Negotiations” and Chapter IV is based on Granados, J. (2002) “ The FTAA Agenda for Market Access Negotiations”. The views expressed in this document are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Inter-American Development Bank. Index CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER II - THE COMPLEX WEB OF MARKET ACCESS LIBERALIZATION IN THE 1990s 2 II.1. Unilateral, Multilateral and Preferential Liberalization 2 II.2. Instruments for Market Access Liberalization 6 CHAPTER III. AN UNFINISHED LIBERALIZATION IN THE AGRIBUSINESS SECTOR? 20 III. 1. The Political Economy of Agricultural Protection 20 III.2. Agricultural Market Access and Subsidies in the Western Hemisphere 25 III.3. Conclusion: Perspectives for agricultural liberalization in the Western Hemisphere 38 CHAPTER IV. MARKET ACCESS IN THE FTAA 39 IV.1. Development of the FTAA process: 1995-2002 39 IV.2. The agenda for negotiating market access for goods 40 IV.3. The Challenges Ahead 41 IV.4. Balancing inter-group concessions 47 IV.5. What interactions are there with the WTO? 48 IV.6. The road ahead 49 REFERENCES 52 CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION Trade Liberalization occupies a prominent chapter in any economic history account of Latin America in the XX century, a century where external events have played a key role in determining the development path for most countries in the region. Some decades from now, when future economic historians look back at the turning point of this century they will have to pay special attention, once again, to the role played by the external trade policies undertaken by most countries in the region (and their most important partners) during the 1990s. Among all structural reforms implemented in recent times, trade liberalization in general, and market access liberalization in particular, stands out as the most consistent policy advocated by countries throughout the period. Although the extent of liberalization has varied from country to country and from sector to sector, economic historians will look back at this period as the most open in the region since the period before the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, the agenda on market access in the hemisphere is far from being finished. This document presents a detailed account on how much market access liberalization has been achieved in the hemisphere in recent times, and what is left to be completed evaluating a decade characterized by a complex web of simultaneous unilateral, multilateral and preferential (bilateral or regional) liberalization efforts in the region. These simultaneous policy efforts have defined a new paradigm in the region in the way trade policy has been designed and implemented. This new paradigm was first named by ECLAC as “Open Regionalism” and most recently, in similar but more theoretical fashion, analyzed by Ethier (1998) and Devlin and Estevadeordal (2001) under the name of “New Regionalism”. According to Either’s analysis, first, most countries (particularly the smaller ones) have made important unilateral reforms and liberalized trade on a multilateral basis before (or simultaneously) to the negotiation of new preferential trade agreements. Second, when the preferential relation involved countries of different relative sizes, the burden of liberalization has been often on the small country. Third, the trade policy reforms have involved usually deep objectives, which go beyond traditional market access opening. Finally, there has been a dominant regional bias, in a geographical sense, in most preferential trade agreements. The goal of this paper is to provide an in depth analysis of the different pieces of this complex mosaic on market access negotiations and market access liberalization during the 1990s and the prospects for further enhancement. Chapter II provides an overview of the trade policy paradigm in Latin America in recent years quantifying the importance and the degree of liberalization achieved on several fronts and with respect to various measures affecting trade, mostly tariffs and non-tariff measures. Chapter III analyzes agriculture, which is probably the most problematic sector in global market access. Finally, Chapter IV evaluates the status quo and challenges of the ongoing market access negotiations under the most ambitious trade negotiation ever in the hemisphere, the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). CHAPTER II - THE COMPLEX WEB OF MARKET ACCESS LIBERALIZATION IN THE 1990s II.1. Unilateral, Multilateral and Preferential Liberalization Starting in the mid to late 1980s, most of the developing world was moving toward substantial market-oriented economic reforms, which included, almost without exception, unilateral trade liberalization policies. In addition, all of this was happening in the context of multilateral efforts in Geneva to liberalize trade in goods and services around the world, which culminated in the Uruguay Round Agreements of 1994 and the creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995. Moreover, a growing interest in regionalism was taking hold around the word, especially in Latin America, in the context of old regional initiatives or as newly crafted preferential trade agreements. The mid-1990s marked the tenth anniversary of the beginning of the wave of substantive unilateral trade reforms undertaken by most countries in the region. The depth of these reforms is self evident when looking at the average regional tariff rates that went from 40 percent in the mid1980s to 11 percent in mid-1990s. For most countries those tariff cuts were in the order of 50 percent and they were implemented over relatively short periods of time (two to three years). Average maximum tariffs in the region fell from more than 80 to 40 percent with only very few countries currently applying maximum tariffs of up to 100 percent on a small number of products. Tariff dispersion, on average, has declined from 30 percent in the mid-1980s to an average of 9 percent today. Both the highest average rate and the highest dispersion rate, as measured by the standard deviation, are currently under 18 percent. There are still, however, some important tariff peaks. On average, approximately 20 percent of tariff lines are subject to rates above 20 percent. (Table 1). Also, in the mid-1990s, the Final Act of the Uruguay Round was signed at Marrakech (April 1994), ending almost a decade of multilateral trade negotiations. The agreements, which made up the final package entered into force on January 1995, including the agreement establishing the World Trade Organization, which is responsible for administering the most sophisticated, and comprehensive world trade agreement ever signed. The Uruguay Round negotiations (1986-1994) were primarily concerned with two basic issues on market access. First, ensuring greater access to markets by reducing or eliminating obstacles to trade in goods and services. Second, making the new levels of market access legally binding under more stringent WTO regulations and procedures. In the area of tariff liberalization, this latest round of GATT negotiations achieved an average tariff reduction of 38 percent in industrialized countries and, from the standpoint of the Latin American and the Caribbean countries, implied substantial commitments to dismantle import barriers. The central obligation with respect to tariffs requires countries to limit their levels to a specified maximum or so-called GATT tariff commitment or “ binding”. The latest round resulted in a significant increase in the number of bound tariff lines. In the case of developed countries, the increase went from 22 to 72 percent; and in the case of countries in transition, it went from 78 to 98 percent. Latin America as a whole agreed to bind practically all tariff lines. This is especially significant when compared to the existing levels of tariff bindings before the Uruguay Round began. In Latin America as a whole, only 38 percent of tariff lines for industrial products were bound, equivalent to 57 percent of imports. For agricultural products, the percentages were 36 and 74 percent, respectively. 2 Table 1. Tariff Structure in Latin America 1985 - 1999 Average Tariff Rates ((Unweighted Averages) Tariff Dispersion (Standard Deviation) Tariff Peaks (Average tariff rates top 1 Percent products with Highest tariffs) Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela 1985 39.3 22.7 55.1 20.2 46.5 58.7 33.6 18.7 64.4 35.9 31.6 1988 30.8 16.6 41.5 15.1 46.3 44.5 10.2 18.6 70.5 26.9 42.2 1991 14.2 9.2 20.4 10.8 16.4 16.6 12.6 13.6 16.2 21.3 15.1 1994 15.4 9.7 9.7 10.9 11.3 11.0 12.4 7.3 15.6 13.6 11.3 1997 14.1 9.6 14.9 10.8 11.4 9.9 13.7 10.0 13.1 10.1 11.5 1999 15.5 9.7 15.8 10.0 12.2 14.3 17.9 13.2 13.6 13.8 12.8 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela 9.4 4.6 28.0 1.6 16.9 56.0 20.3 13.8 24.6 14.9 25.2 10.3 1.3 19.5 .9 17.4 35.0 6.6 13.7 24.4 11.3 36.3 6.0 2.5 16.8 1.5 8.0 10.4 5.2 11.8 5.8 6.5 11.0 8.8 1.1 6.9 .9 5.8 6.0 5.5 6.8 3.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 1.4 7.1 1.2 5.8 8.3 14.2 6.3 3.6 6.4 5.8 6.2 1.2 6.2 0.5 6.2 6.6 14.8 6.6 3.6 6.7 6.5 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela 51.5 32.3 108.0 27.4 85.0 245.0 105.5 50.0 104.0 60.0 100.0 57.6 17.0 85.0 20.0 88.0 125.0 20.0 50.0 109.0 45.0 139.9 25.0 10.0 70.0 11.0 51.4 37.0 20.0 52.0 25.0 30.0 40.0 30.0 10.0 20.0 11.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 32.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 27.2 10.0 35.0 11.0 20.0 24.5 56.2 23.7 25.0 22.0 20.0 31.3 10.0 34.0 10.0 22.7 25.7 113.5 24.5 25.0 23.0 25.0 Source: Estevadeordal and Shearer (2002) These unilateral and multilateral reforms have been accompanied in Latin America and the Caribbean by an active agenda of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).1 FTAs have a long history in the region. In the 1950s there was much discussion of a Latin American Common Market. Following a decade of negotiations the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), comprising the South American countries and Mexico was launched in 1960. The same year the Central American Common Market (CACM) was also officially launched. Also, the Andean Group (AG) was founded in 1969. While the agreements experienced some success (especially the CACM), it was short lived. By the second half of the seventies all of them were in great difficulty and most of them fell into open crisis in the 1980s. These old Post-War regional initiatives can be characterized by the following stylized facts. First, the central objective of the agreements was to support the prevailing state-led import substitution industrialization (ISI) model of development. The model was expressive of export pessimism, skepticism regarding private markets, and great 1 . A detailed comparative analysis between the “Old” and “New” Regionalism can be found in Devlin and Estevadeordal (2001) and an application in the case of Mercosur in Estevadeordal, Goto and Saez (2001). 3 concern about the presence and dependence on foreign firms. The goal was to industrialize by substituting imports behind high levels of national protection (effective protection reached levels of 150-200 percent), state planning and direct public sector intervention in markets. Second, regional integration was seen as an instrument to overcome the limitations of the ISI model through the creation of a regional market. The approach was to eliminate internal barriers to trade while maintaining high levels of external protection and expanding industrial planning to the regional level. Third, the liberalization mechanisms were mostly based on multiple positive lists coupled with by complex arrangements for special and differential treatment for the less developed members. Fourth, the creation of a costly bureaucratic architecture inspired by the European model in most of the agreements cum sectoral industrial programming, eroded credibility with the private sector. Fifth, in terms of liberalization and trade, the old schemes generally did not succeed in meeting their most basic objectives. Negotiations and liberalization schedules bogged down quickly. Hence, effective liberalization was limited and growth of intra-regional trade modest (Central America was probably the only important exception). Other disciplines often did not go beyond paper accords. The debt crisis of the early 1980s and consequent balance of payments problems induced a deep recession in Latin America and with that, a severe contraction of intra-regional trade. However, to the surprise of many observers, new regional initiatives began to appear in the second half of the 1980s and a true resurgence materialized in the decade of the 1990s. The initial preferential arrangements were the so-called Economic Complementary Agreements (Acuerdos de Complementación Económica or ACE in Spanish) under the framework of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA, or ALADI, Asociación Latinoamericana de Integración in Spanish), that was created in 1980 as the successor to LAFTA. ALADI eschewed the objectives of the 1960s in favor of limited agreements confined to market access via the exchange of partial or full preferences on specific products. However, by the time the multilateral talks ended in 1994, a new generation of regional preferential agreements had already spread throughout much of Latin America. Months before the signature of the Final Act of the Uruguay Round, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was implemented. In addition, important advances were made in the Southern Cone in preparation for the launching of MERCOSUR in January 1995, a customs union project among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay building upon some previously signed bilateral ACE agreements. Later in the year, in December 1994, the most ambitious initiative for economic integration was launched during the Miami Summit under the acronym of FTAA (Free Trade Area of the Americas). Moreover, during the same time period two countries in the hemisphere were in the process of consolidating their positions as strategic trade hubs in the region for the time to come. Mexico was able to secure in 1994 three important agreements--which were based on the NAFTA model-- with Costa Rica in April, with Colombia and Venezuela (known as the G-3 Agreement) in June and with Bolivia in September. All three agreements were implemented at the beginning of 1995. Mexico then built on this momentum by concluding agreements with Nicaragua in 1997 and the Northern Triangle in 2000 and successfully broadened and deepened its agreement with Chile in 1998. The Americas’ other trade hub, Chile, acquired its status by building in a gradual and consistent fashion. It signed its first and most basic agreements, in terms of scope and nature of coverage, with Mexico in 1991, Venezuela in 1992, Colombia in 1993 and Ecuador in 1994. The level of scope and sophistication then somewhat expanded in Chile’s 1996 agreement with MERCOSUR and 1998 agreement with Peru. Nevertheless, the broadest expansion yet in the nature of Chilean agreements came in 1996 with the signing a free trade agreement with Canada, which almost completely mimicked the NAFTA. Subsequently, Chile’s 1998 upgraded agreement with Mexico was based on the NAFTA model as was its 1999 accords with the countries of the Central American Common Market. Most recently, Chile has been negotiating a free trade agreement with the United States based on the NAFTA model. When concluded, it will add to the ever-growing list of North-South Agreements in the Hemisphere of this type. In addition, around the same time, important institutional and policy reforms were carried out 4 in existing agreements such as the Andean Pact (renamed Andean Community in 1997), CARICOM and the Central American Common Market. Figure 1. Trade Agreements Signed and Under Negotiation in the Americas “First Generation” Agreement Agreement Under Negotiation “Second Generation” Agreement Reciprocal Agreement:CU-Country Customs Union (CU) Non-Reciprocal Agreement:CU-Country FTAA ALADI Bahamas Haiti USA Canada-CA-4 USA-CACM Canada USA-Chile Mercosur Nicaragua Uruguay CACM Costa Rica Brazil Argentina Chile El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Dominican Republic Paraguay Mexico Panama CARICOM Trinidad & Dominica Suriname Tobago Jamaica St. Lucia Belize St. Kitts & Nevis Grenada Barbados Guyana St. Vincent & Grenadines Antigua & Barbuda Colombia Peru Ecuador Venezuela Bolivia Andean Community ALADI This dynamism has also been present at the extra regional level, in particular, in the context of the APEC initiative. Mexico joined APEC as a full member in November 1993, Chile entered one year later and Peru in 1998. Moreover, during the II Presidential Meeting of APEC in November 1994 in Indonesia (the same year of the launching of the FTAA), the leaders agreed to achieve the goal of free trade and investment in the region by no later than 2010 for the industrialized economies and 2020 for developing countries. This brief review of the integration efforts in the mid-1990s would be incomplete without reference to the European Union involvement with Latin America. In December 1995 a trade and economic cooperation agreement with MERCOSUR was signed. A Framework Cooperation Agreement with Chile followed this in June 1996. However, the most far-reaching process to date has been the Economic Partnership, Political Coordination and Cooperation Agreement between Mexico and the European Union. The broad framework agreement was signed in 1997 and led to the signing of a comprehensive free trade agreement between the two parties in 1999. Formal launching of negotiations of Association Agreements by the EU with MERCOSUR and Chile were agreed on April 2000. 5 This historical overview provides some insights on how the new regionalism in Latin America and the Caribbean has interacted (and will interact in the future) with other approaches to trade liberalization. Some of the commitments undertaken by the Latin American and Caribbean countries during the Uruguay Round negotiations can be explained by successful unilateral trade liberalization reforms carried out at the national level. In turn, those same commitments at the multilateral level acted as lock-in mechanism for the domestic reforms. At the same time, the Uruguay Round agreements set the stage for the pursuit of regional agreements under a common umbrella of global trade rules and a clearer set of disciplines under which preferential agreements can be negotiated. Moreover, while the reciprocal nature of the multilateral round provides a national political underpinning to further liberalization, and the economic advantages of free trade achieved at the multilateral level are well understood, it is sometimes difficult to evaluate net gains in a negotiating forum of more than one hundred countries with very different strategic interests acting as a constraint to new commitments. Regional and bilateral agreements offer certain advantages in this respect. These agreements are based on reciprocity principles involving a smaller group of countries. This can provide a better environment to reach consensus on the complex range of issues in modern trade agendas, to better evaluate the potential gains from this bargaining exercise and to gain private sector understanding and support for the liberalization process. Ethier (1998) has also pointed out that the incentives for exploiting the advantages of regional negotiations are greater the more successful are the multilateral rounds. In sum, this wave of new regionalism in the Americas including the deepening of agreements already in existence and the hemispheric wide FTAA negotiations should be seen as complementary forces to the unilateral reforms and multilateral efforts. Also, and most importantly, they are key laboratories for the development and the learning-by-doing of new paradigms in the design and implementation of trade policy around the world.2 II.2. Instruments for Market Access Liberalization a) Tariffs Market access in traditional preferential agreements, in particular the Latin American ACE agreements, used to be negotiated by means of a fixed preferential tariff below the MFN rates and, in many cases, only for a selected group of products or sectors. Unilateral and multilateral tariff reductions had the effect of progressively eroding the margins of preference initially agreed upon. To maintain constant those margins over time countries had to renegotiate the agreements on a continuous basis. Later on, preferential agreements were based on constant relative margin of preference by means of negotiating a preferential tariff reduction as a percentage of the current MFN applied rates. Nowadays, most of the “new” FTAs have followed the NAFTA model in many respects, moving towards tariff phase-out programs that are relatively quick, automatic, and nearly universal. The tariff elimination process follows pre-specified timetables ranging from immediate elimination up to generally a 10-year period phase-out, with special phase-out periods for those products regarded as “sensitive”. The negotiations usually start with an agreement on a base rate or base level from which phase out schedules will be applied. Those base rates usually coincide with the MFN applied rates to third parties at the time of negotiations. This was the case, for instance, in NAFTA after initial proposals to use GATT bound rates were rejected. In other cases, it has been necessary to take into account previous preferences negotiated under other agreements in order to establish the initial base rate. These rates can also be subject to negotiations with the aim of beginning the phase-out schedules from lower rates. In a second stage, parties must agree on specific tariff elimination programs or phase-out schedules to bring the initial base rates to zero in a defined time period. 2 . See Devlin and Ffrench-Davis (1999) and Devlin and Estevadeordal (2001). 6 Figure 2. MFN & Preferential Tariff Liberalization Latin America 1985-1997 Average tariff rates 50 40 30 MFN Tariffs 20 10 Preferential Tariffs 0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Source: Estevadeordal and Shearer (2002) Figure 3a. Trade Liberalization by 2005 % of Items Free by 2005 under current agreements (Estimates) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Each bar represents a preferential bilateral relation (country-pair) under current agreements Source: Estevadeordal, Harris and Shearer (2002) 7 96 97 Figure 3b. Trade Liberalization by 2005 % Imports from Latin America under current agreements (Estimates) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Fully Liberalized by 2005 PER MEX CRI VEN EC U GT M C OL H ND BR A SL V NIC BOL U RY AR G C HL PR Y 0% Under Agreement but not Fully Free Source: Estevadeordal, Harris and Shearer (2002) Figure 3c. Trade Liberalization by 2005 % Imports from the Western Hemisphere under current agreements (Estimates) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Fully Liberalized by 2005 Under Agreement but not Fully Free Source: Estevadeordal, Harris and Shearer (2002) 8 CRI VEN PER COL HND GTM ECU BRA SLV NIC ARG BOL CHL URY PRY USA CAN MEX 0% Figure 2 displays the evolution of MFN tariffs compared to the average preferential tariffs in several countries from mid-1980s to 1997 showing the simultaneous lowering of external and internal barriers, as one of the key stylized facts highlighted by Ethier (1998) in his analysis of the new regionalism. Figure 3 presents several estimates of degree of liberalization by 2005 as a result of implementing existing liberalization programs of current agreements. Although most programs will eliminate internal tariffs for almost all products by 2005 (the average percentage of exceptions is around five percent, which contrasts favorably with most of the old agreements), the internal dynamics of the phase-out programs varies widely across agreements. Figure 4 normalizes the liberalization phase-out paths of several agreements as if all of them had started on the same date. It then presents the percentage of items and bilateral trade that will be subject to zero tariffs over a ten-year time period, the usual GATT consistent framework for creation of a free trade area.3 The figure shows the different built-in speeds of each agreement. For some agreements, more than fifty percent of the products become free of tariffs during the first year of implementation of the agreement. For others, those percentages will not be reached until the 5th year or later. Four patterns are observed. First, a high percentage of trade was liberalized in the first year of the US and Canadian NAFTA liberalization schedules vis-à-vis Mexico, the Mexico-Costa Rica FTA and the Mexican liberalization to Bolivia. In the case of the Chilean bilateral agreements and the liberalization of Bolivia to Mexico a high level of liberalization occurred by year five. A third pattern is the Mexican side of NAFTA, which undertakes the bulk of its opening between years 5 and 10. Finally, the G-3 did not undertake much liberalization at all until after year five. The figure also displays a relatively high degree of nominal reciprocity in liberalization schedules with the notable exception of NAFTA and the Mexico-Bolivia FTA. Figure 4. New Regionalism: Speed of Intraregional Tariff Liberalization Percentage of items under Full Liberalization (6)CHILE-ME,-(7)CO,-(8)VE 100 (1)NAFTA (US-ME) 80 (3)CR-ME 60 (9)NAFTA (ME-US) (2)ME-CR (4)NAFTA (CA-ME) % (10)NAFTA (ME-CA) 40 (11)BOL-ME (5)ME-BOL 20 (12)GROUP OF 3 0 Before PTA 1st Year 5th Year 10th Year Period of Liberalization 3 . In reality, of course, the phase-out programs are discrete in time rather than continuous. However, for visual purposes the figures smooth out the discrete phases with a continuous fitting line. 9 Percentage of Trade under Full Liberalization (6) 100 80 60 % (8) (11) (2) (4) (3) (12) 40 (9) (1) 20 (7) (5) (10) 0 Before PTA 1st Year 5th Year 10th Year Period of Liberalization Source: Devlin and Estevadeordal (2001) The picture tells a different story when considering the amount of bilateral trade affected by the different tariff elimination programs. It is important to note the caveat that the projections are based on the import structure of the initial period and therefore assumes an unrealistic null elasticity of imports to the elimination of import tariffs. The data in the bottom half of Figure 3 shows a much higher degree of variance and no discernable pattern regarding the speed of the programs and the levels of reciprocity. When the examination it is done by sectors (not shown), the intra-sector dispersion among the agreements is quite marked and, in particular, the agricultural products generally have the most gradual liberalization schedules. Finally, with few exceptions, most of the bilateral trade in the agreements analyzed becomes fully liberalized within a ten-year period. Figures 5 and 6 present the current average levels and distribution of the bilateral preferential rates among Latin American countries (1999-2000 data) vis-à-vis the multilateral tariff rates. A complete analysis requires looking at relative margins of preference, that is, the levels of tariff preferences relative to MFN rates. Examining first the MFN tariff profiles in Figure 5, the 11 countries fall into three rough groups. The first is characterized not only by higher MFN tariffs, but a wider distribution of tariffs as well. Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico fall into this category, the three of them having the three highest tariff medians as well as the three highest extreme values. A second group has smaller overall dispersion and lower tariffs compared to the first group. Interestingly, however, the inter-quartile regions for these countries tend to be larger than those of the first group. This grouping consists of Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. A final group of countries, consisting of Bolivia, Chile, and Peru, has for the most part uniform tariff structures. Furthermore, these countries tend to have lower median tariffs than those in the other two categories, and Bolivia and Chile have the two lowest medians of all. These differences among categories become even more important when we take into account the preferential tariff structures. In fact, the median preferential tariffs for the Argentina-Brazil-Mexico 10 group fall significantly; although not below those of the countries in the second grouping and the inter-quartile ranges of the preferential distribution are completely below the MFN structures of each respective country. In a sense, the “most protectionist” group is at the same time the one offering the highest margins of preference to the rest. The second group does give notable preferences to their regional trading partners, but apparently not to the same extent. Finally, the preferential tariff structure of the Bolivia-Chile-Peru group preserves the uniformity principle in terms of lower dispersion with significant margins of preference as well. Figure 5. MFN and Preferential Tariff Structure in Latin America 1999-2000 40 30 20 10 Product Category Outliers * Product Category Extreme Values 0 MFN -10 Avg. Preferential N VE Y R U Y PR R PE EX M U EC L O C L H C A BR L BO G AR Source: Estevadeordal and Shearer (2002) Figure 6. MFN and Preferential Tariff Structure in Latin America 1999-2000 by Country Argentina Brazil 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 MFN BOL BRA CHL COL ECU MEX PER PRY URY VEN MFN 11 ARG BOL CHL COL ECU MEX PER PRY URY VEN Uruguay Paraguay 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 MFN ARG BOL BRA CHL COL ECU MEX PER URY VEN -10 MFN ARG BOL BRA CHL COL ECU MEX PER PRY VEN Colombia Bolivia 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 MFN MFN ARG BRA CHL COL ECU MEX PER PRY URY ARG BOL BRA CHL ECU MEX PER PRY URY VEN ECU MEX PRY URY VEN VEN Ecuador Peru 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 MFN ARG BOL BRA CHL COL MEX PER PRY URY VEN MFN 12 ARG BOL BRA CHL COL Chile Venezuela 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 MFN ARG BOL BRA CHL COL ECU MEX PER PRY URY MFN ARG BOL BRA COL ECU MEX PER PRY URY VEN Mexico 40 30 20 10 0 -10 MFN ARG BOL BRA CHL COL ECU PER PRY URY VEN Source: Estevadeordal and Shearer (2002) b) Rules of Origin Because of its discriminatory nature, a preferential agreement must distinguish “non-member originating” from “member originating” products in order for a product to be granted preferential access. The growth of international trade in goods that are not manufactured in a single country has made the issue of the rules for determining the “origin” (RoO) of goods traded into one of the most important and complex areas of preferential market access negotiations. Although this has been an area well known to trade lawyers and customs specialists (Vermulst et alt. (1994)) it has just recently caught the attention of economists. The economic analysis of RoO has been relatively limited, both in terms of formal modeling as well as empirical testing. It has been argued, from an analytical point of view, that the way in which RoO are defined and applied within modern preferential agreements plays an important role in determining the degree of protection they confer and the level of trade distortion effects which they produce.4 One of the most convincing treatments of the potential “hidden” protectionism of RoO has been elaborated by Krishna and Krueger (1995) who argued that RoO can induce a switch in the sourcing of low cost non-regional to high-cost regional inputs in order for producers to take 4 . See Hoekman (1993) for a conceptual discussion and Estevadeordal (2000) for an econometric application in the case of NAFTA. 13 advantage of the preferential rates. Since the tariff applies to the transaction value of final goods whenever preferences are deep and RoO are restrictive there is an incentive for regional producers to buy intermediate goods from regional sources. So, by displacing low-cost intermediate goods from the rest of the world, restrictive rules of origin provide additional protection to regional producers of intermediate goods to the apparent detriment of downstream or final goods producers. This apparent conflict could be explained because of the specific production relations that exist between component producers and users. If the linkages between the different parts of the production chain are very tight, it may be difficult for a foreign final good producer to locate components within the region and remain competitive, that is, RoO “export protection” both for the intermediate and final goods producers. Moreover, outside producers of intermediate goods hurt by restrictive RoO may have an incentive to move production facilities into the lower-cost country within the region, even though it is not the lowest cost producer worldwide. This situation could potentially distort efficient investment decisions and hinder the liberalizing effects of a FTA. Conceptually, there are two basic criteria to determine origin. The criterion of “wholly obtained or produced”, where only one country enters into consideration in attributing origin, and the criterion of “substantial transformation”, where two or more countries have taken part in the production process. The first criteria applies mainly to commodities and related products which have been entirely grown, extracted from the soil or harvested within the country, or manufactured there from any of these products. Such products acquire origin by virtue of the total absence of the use of any second country components or materials. Even a minimal content of imported components will imply losing its qualification of “wholly produced”. Most countries have adopted the precise definition contained in the Kyoto convention (Annex D.2) for this criterion. The “substantial transformation” criterion is the second concept recognized by the Kyoto Convention as a basis on which origin of goods may be determined. The Kyoto Convention does not offer a single approach for defining substantial transformation. One of the goals underlying the NAFTA negotiations on RoO was to develop specific criteria to give more precision to this concept. There are at least three methods in the NAFTA agreement: • • • A change in tariff classification, requiring the product to change its tariff heading, chapter under the Harmonized Commodity Description System (Harmonized System) in the originating country. A domestic content rule or regional value content, RVC, requiring a minimum percentage of local value added in the originating country (or setting the maximum percentage of value originating in non-member countries). A technical requirement, TECH, prescribing that the product must undergo specific manufacturing processing operations in the originating country. These methods have been used with different degrees of precision under different FTAs. In the case of agreements negotiated in the Americas, we find at one extreme of this “continuum” traditional agreements where a general rule is being used across the board for all tariff items (e.g., under the traditional LAIA agreements the general RoO that applies across-the-board is based on a Change in Tariff Classification at the heading level or, alternatively, a regional value added of at least 50 percent of the FOB export value). At the other extreme we encounter the type of RoO negotiated under NAFTA that incorporates a general rule plus additional specific rules negotiated at the product level (6 digit HS), combining in many different ways the three methods described above. An immediate precedent with a lower degree of specificity can be found in the FTA agreement between the United States and Canada. RoO negotiated under the G-3 agreement, the Mexican bilateral with Costa Rica and Bolivia and the recent Chilean bilateral with Mexico and 14 Canada are also close to the NAFTA model. Meanwhile, rules introduced under the MERCOSUR and MERCOSUR bilateral with Chile and Bolivia, as well as the Central America Common Market, can be considered intermediate models between the two extreme cases. The structure of RoO in a selected number of Latin American FTAs is presented in Table 2. The table illustrates the degree of specificity used in the making of the RoO in these modern agreements (see also Cornejo and Garay (1999, 2001) Table 2. New Regionalism: Structure of Rules of Origin in Selected Agreements FTA US-CA cc 16,7 CC/E CC/OR 27,0 5,8 8,4 CC/E/OR RULES OF ORIGIN BASED ON CHANGE OF CHAPTER NAFTA 20,0 27,8 6,0 5,8 5,7 6,7 5,8 2,7 CanadaChile 20,9 26,5 6,7 5,3 MERCOSUR- Chile Bolivia 6,2 7,9 1,2 1,3 2,0 1,1 1,0 12,8 CC or CS/E/RC 16,2 2,5 CC/E or CS/E/RC 11,2 SUBTOTAL 56,6 52,1 40,9 40,4 41,3 42,7 ch 21,1 7,9 14,8 14,9 15,2 8,9 CH/E 6,3 14,2 13,2 16,3 13,9 14,6 CH/RC 5,8 3,1 2,0 2,6 2,2 3,4 CH/OR CH/E/OR MERCOSUR- 1,0 CC or CH/E/RC CC or CS/RC MexicoBolivia 6,3 CC or CH/RC CC/E or CH/RC ORIGIN BASED ON CHANGE OF HEADING MexicoCosta Rica 5,5 CC/RC/OR CC/E or CH/E RULES OF G-3 1,0 5,8 0,0 0,0 10,0 11,9 20,0 21,2 24,0 22,3 46,0 44,6 100,0 100,0 1,7 CH/RC/OR 8,1 CH/E/RC/OR 4,9 CH or RC 10,0 1,0 CH or CH/RC CH or CS/RC 6,9 1,0 CH or CS/E/RC 1,1 7,4 7,5 CH/E or CS/E/RC 1,1 CH/E or CH/RC CH/E or CH/E/RC SUBTOTAL cs 1,9 2,6 34,0 45,0 45,9 43,0 38,0 1,1 1,3 1,0 1,6 1,7 11,0 1,3 1,3 1,6 4,2 4,2 1,3 1,3 CS/E RULES OF ORIGIN BASED ON CHANGE OF SUBHEADING 2,5 39,0 CS/RC 4,6 CS/E/OR CS or RC CS or CS/RC CS/E or CS/RC subtotal 1,1 1,3 5,6 8,4 8,5 12,6 0,0 0,0 TOTAL 96,7 87,4 91,5 94,7 92,8 93,3 100,0 100,0 Notes: Only percentages above 1% of the total are reported. The following abreviations are used (see text): CC - Change of Chapter; CH - Change of Heading; CS - Change of Subheading; CI - Change of Item; E - Change of Tariff Classification including Exceptions; OR Other Technical Requirements; RC - Regional Value Content Criteria. Source: Devlin and Estevadeordal (2002) 15 c) Non-Tariff Measures As countries succeed in eliminating tariffs, both explicit and subtler new ways to protect domestic industry from external competition have been developed. A major accomplishment of several rounds of multilateral trade negotiations in the context of the GATT agreement has been the steady reduction of tariffs across sectors and countries. Tariff reductions negotiated during the Kennedy Round (1967) and the Tokyo Round (1979) were followed by an increased use of non-tariff barriers in the form of quantitative restrictions. The Uruguay Round made important progress in reducing those types of trade barriers. However, countries are progressively relying in more subtle forms of protection such as antidumping investigations or the use of technical standards. The level of protection provided by such barriers is far more difficult to quantify than for tariffs or other quantitative restrictions, making negotiations for their removal difficult. Due to their potentially restrictive intent, there has been considerable progress made towards the harmonization across countries. Determining the tariff equivalent of a quantitative restrictions are difficult, but determining the costs to an importer of the paperwork for a health permit, a change in packaging requirements, or inconsistent enforcement of customs standards often proves practically impossible. The benefits of traditional trade liberalization could be greatly reduced if countries merely compensate by imposing hidden protective technical measures. Although most regional agreements contain provisions on the application of non-tariff measures to control imports among partners, in most cases those are applied on a MFN basis. In this section we provide an analysis of those measures, among other, minimum price setting, automatic license arrangements, non-automatic licenses, tariff rate-quotas, import prohibitions, monopolistic measures in the administration of imports, and other technical measures. During the period previous to the trade liberalization reforms most countries required import licenses in order to assure that imports did not surpass pre-set quotas. These levels could be modified by authorities in response to foreign exchange crises, becoming in practice an instrument to deal with balance of payment problems. The countries of the region gradually eliminated quantitative limits on imports both unilaterally and within the framework of multilateral commitments assumed during the Uruguay Round. The gradual elimination of quota systems on imports and their tariffication, prior to the tariff reduction per se, had the initial effect of raising revenues from custom duties and therefore limiting opposition to tariff reform. When both quotas and tariffs reduced simultaneously, however, fiscal problems arose, even though these reforms were more credible. Taking a regional average for those countries where data is available, non-tariff measures affected 33.8 percent of imports in the pre-reform period, and declined to 11.4 percent. The number of tariff lines affected by these measures fell from 29.6 to 1.6 percent. There remains, however, trade regulation that could potentially restrict trade, such as government purchasing arrangements, inappropriate use of anti-dumping measures, and the increasing use of certain competition policies and technical measures with protective purposes. In this paper we use two measures based on data compiled by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Inter-American Development Bank (TRAINS for the Americas). Alternative definitions of NTMs have been used in the empirical literature. UNCTAD uses an overall non-tariff incidence measure (NTM), and a core NTM incidence measure (core). Deardorff and Stern have proposed an alternative treatment of non-tariff measures, which disaggregates NTMs into several. In this study we have accommodated Deardorff and Stern’s classification to the UNCTAD coding system and methodology in order to work with five additional 16 NTM groups: quantitative, charges, government participation in trade, customs, and technical barriers to trade.5 A summary on how the measures have been constructed appears in Annex 1. As with our tariff analysis, Figure 7 displays the distribution of two aggregate measures: overall NTMs and the core measure, as well as the five disaggregated measures used by Deardorff and Stern for several countries. The box plots are constructed based on SITC 1-digit sections (instead of the 3-digit headers used in the tariff box plots), due to the tendency of the measures to be either zero or 100 at the more disaggregated product level. Charges, government, and customs tend to be zero or close to zero for most countries. Therefore, much of the action for overall NTMs is due to the presence of quantitative and technical measures. Core NTMs are generally quite low overall, albeit non-zero in terms of their box plots. The behavior of the quantitative measure variable varies significantly between countries and even within integration groups. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, as well as Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela tend to have a higher quantitative incidence, while Uruguay, Bolivia, and Peru have a lower incidence. Mexico and Chile have remarkably similar quantitative behavior. Although the profile of the technical measure differs between countries, the figure displays clearly the growing importance of those measures, in particular in light of its potential use as protectionist measures. Figure 7. NTM Incidence in Latin America 1999-2000 by Country Argentina Brazil 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 3 3 7 20 20 1 3 0 4 - -20 N= 1 5 0 -20 11 NTM 11 CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH N= 11 NTM 11 CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH Paraguay Uruguay 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 0 40 40 3 20 20 1 1 0 -20 N= 9 0 0 -20 11 NTM 11 CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH N= 11 NTM 5 11 CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH . It should be noted here that although the categories are mutually exclusive, they together do not make up all of the measures that embodied in the NTM variable, although they cover most of them. Nor should these statistics be added 17 Colombia Bolivia 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 4 4 9 9 9 20 20 0 0 5 9 0 0 -20 -20 N= 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 NTM CORE QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH N= 11 11 NTM CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH Peru Ecuador 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 4 4 20 20 6 8 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 -20 -20 N= N= 11 11 NTM CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH Venezuela 120 100 80 60 40 4 4 20 4 3 0 0 -20 N= 11 NTM 11 CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH 11 NTM together, since more than one class of measures could cover a tariff line. 18 11 CORE 11 11 11 11 11 QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH Chile Mexico 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 9 4 40 4 9 40 5 20 8 6 20 0 0 1 0 -20 N= 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 NTM CORE QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH -20 N= 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 NTM CORE QUANT CHRGS GOVT CSTMS TECH Source: Estevadeordal and Shearer (2002) This overview analysis of the structure of protection sets the stage for a more in depth analysis of two key issues on market access negotiations: the case of the agricultural sector and the prospects under FTAA negotiations. We turn to those two issues in the next two sections. 19 CHAPTER III. AN UNFINISHED LIBERALIZATION IN THE AGRIBUSINESS SECTOR? III. 1. The Political Economy of Agricultural Protection Within international trade, agribusiness is the sector in which market globalization and regional integration have been mediocre and full of obstacles. Despite efforts to implement the first multilateral agreement in this area -- the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) -- and the signing of several preferential trade agreements benefiting mainly smaller and poorer countries, developed countries continue to display important tariff and non-tariff barriers in agricultural trade. They also offer heavy subsidies that often distort internal production and export patterns. However, it is interesting to note that the resistance to opening agricultural markets has not blocked an impressive increase in foreign direct investments and mergers and acquisitions in agribusiness worldwide. Ironically, while American, European and Japanese farmers attempt to maintain subsidies, the largest agribusiness corporations from these same countries rapidly expand their operations abroad in the regions most affected by protectionism. Such a dichotomy presents the need to treat the issue of agricultural protectionism in a realistic and pragmatic way. The objective of the following section (III.1.1) is to identify the economic, social and political forces that are attempting to maintain the status quo in protectionism from those attempting to change the current conditions both within their countries and abroad. Section III.2. compares current protectionist levels and subsidies in agriculture for selected countries of the Western Hemisphere (Canada, United States, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Dominican Republic and Costa Rica). The data compare the tariff structures of selected countries (number of tariff lines, basic statistics, presence of tariff rate quotas and the profile of protection for 43 groups of sensitive products) and the levels of domestic support and export subsidies notified to the WTO. III.1.1. Pressures in Favor and Against Agricultural Trade Liberalization III.1.1.1. Protectionist Pressures The following factors lead to the growth (or at least the continuance) of agricultural protectionism in the developed world: a) Intense Lobbying by Agriculture Interest Groups This is the main factor explaining the persistence of high levels of agricultural protection in the world. Farmers and some agricultural related sectors (the machinery and agriculture equipment industry, the agricultural supplies industry, the transportation industry, the warehousing industry and the supporting banks) form powerful political lobbies in Europe, the US and Japan. Because this lobbying is concentrated and focused, the pressure exerted by this small group of beneficiaries is politically more efficient than the less focused and disperse actions of the main losers, namely the consumers and the taxpayers. b) The Argument for Food Security War, hunger and xenophobia are the main reasons explaining the historical treatment of agriculture as an "exception" in multilateral liberalization. These were the reasons that Europe and Japan 20 developed policies to “protect” their consumers from uncertainties of international market disruptions. Most of these arguments lost their importance after a long period of peace, and technological and logistical improvements that have spread agricultural surpluses worldwide. Although these arguments have lost strength in the developed world, the main arguments for food security may remain powerful in highly populated countries like India, China and Russia. c) Quality Standards and Food Safety At the end of the 1990's, Europe faced successive crises related to sanitary measures and quality standards of food. The most important of these were the dioxin contamination in Belgium, the successive epidemics of "mad cow " and “foot and mouth” diseases, and the growing consumer aversion to genetically modified foods. Food safety is growing in importance in all developed countries. The issue of food safety and quality is occupying an increased space in the developed countries' agricultural budgets and there are risks that aspects of the initiatives could substitute traditional tariff-based protectionism. d) Intrinsic Characteristics of Agriculture in Developed Countries The aging of the rural population in developed countries, its low opportunity cost and high cost of professional relocation are some of the factors explaining the resistance by producers and policymakers to reduce agricultural subsidies in wealthy countries. The main argument (although not proven) is that subsidies are cheaper than the social cost of agriculture unemployment. e) Agricultural Non-Trade Concerns (NTC) In recent years, some countries have tried to promote a “fourth pillar” in the international agricultural negotiations, adding to the three traditional ones – market access, export subsidies and domestic support. The most popular expression of the NTC’s is the evolving concept of “multifunctionality” of agriculture. This concept would justify the concession of new subsidies to farmers because they perform roles that extrapolate commercial production of foods and fibers. In this point of view, farmers, as opposed to other economic agents, perform roles that produce positive externalities to society. Among them are the occupation and management of national territory, the survival of small towns, the preservation of the rural landscape and eco-tourism, the maintenance of peasants’ culture and way of life, and, more importantly, the preservation of the environment. Of these roles -- and many of them are difficult to define and measure -environmental preservation is the central element of this new concept of “rurality”. Trade and environment enjoyed much attention in the WTO Development Agenda in Doha and, more recently, in the discussions of the upcoming round of reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. These are five primary factors that explain the continuance of agricultural protectionism in the developed world. Now, if agricultural protectionism were to be justified and implemented only by the industrialized countries, developing countries might have mobilized more leverage to address these five factors. However, the great majority of the developing world supports the continuity of agricultural protectionism because of one or more of the following three reasons: • Intrinsic Characteristics of Agriculture in Developing Countries Agriculture is an important component of the GDP, employment and export agenda of the majority of the developing world. Most of these countries concentrate their most competitive agricultural production in a very small group of commodities, usually of tropical origin, and which face very little if any protection in the developed world. The majority of these countries view protectionism with a certain sympathy for the following reasons: food security (as already mentioned), maintenance of 21 subsistence agriculture, government support for exports, the fostering of rural development and land reform programs, and, most of all, due to a strong concentration of voters in the rural area. Many poor countries tend to offer subsidies and protectionism to the agriculture sector, in general with very little success. They are, however, always appealing to the idea of “special and differential treatment” in the multilateral trading system. • Food Dependence Developed countries have the practice of setting prices above the supply and demand equilibrium, which, by definition, generates over-production. Such over-production is released in the world markets through direct incentives to exports (eg, E.U. export refunds), government credits (eg, GSM 102 and 103 programs in the US) and food aid programs. This process allows the possibility of acquiring cheap foods in the world market, and in turn creates a strong dependency from the socalled Net Food Importers. • Trade Preferences Preferential Trade Agreements are probably the most important factor explaining the international alliances among wealthy and poor countries in support of the agricultural “waiver” to free trade. The great majority of developing countries depend directly on preferential access of the few commodities that are the bulk of their export schedule. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and bananas are good examples of products for which a completely free market could sweep away a large part of the developing world’s market share. Agreements like the GSP, ACP, AGOA, CBERA, ATPA6 and others are fundamental to the survival of many exports from the poorest countries of the world. These are the eight factors, with emphasis on the first in the case of the wealthier countries and the last in the case of the poorer countries, which explain the continuance of agricultural protectionism in the world. III.1.1.2. Pressures against Protection Six main factors help to explain the pressures on public policy leading to a reduction of agricultural protection. A review of each follows. a) The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and the Cairns Group The GATT Uruguay Round (1986-1994) brought the first multilateral agreement for agricultural trade, with rules and regulations in three basic areas: market access, domestic support and exports subsidies. There was also an agreement for a 9-year Peace Clause7. In addition, in 1986 a group of 15 countries exporters of commodities met in the Australian city of Cairns, forming a solid free-trade alliance which acted as a third force in the negotiations. Under Australia’s leadership, the Cairns Group remains active today, with 18 members. The 4th Ministerial Meeting of the WTO in Doha finally firmed up the track of agriculture negotiations, which should be concluded by January of 2005. 6 . Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA), Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA) and the Lome and Cotonou Agreements between the European Union and its former colonies from Africa, the Caribbean and Pacific (ACP). 7 . Article 13 (“due restraint”) of the Agriculture Agreement protects countries using subsidies that comply with the agreement from being challenged under other WTO agreements. Without this “peace clause”, countries would have greater freedom to take action against each others’ subsidies, under the Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Agreement and related provisions. The peace clause is due to expire at the end of 2003. (WTO, 2002). 22 b) Agricultural Policy Inconsistencies in the Developed World In wealthy countries, the group of farmers which truly benefit from subsidies and protection is continuously getting smaller while at the same time representing a larger portion of assets, including land and the value of production. The economic literature points to the fact that the current models of the US and European Union agricultural policies - which have persisted since the 1930’s and 1950’s, respectively - do not make economic sense. Currently, only one-third of American farmers receives payments from the government, which in 2000 reached the equivalent of 50% of the agricultural net farm income. The bulk of subsidies essentially benefit the top 7% of producers, who are responsible for almost 70% of the value of the production and receive approximately half of the government payments (an average of US$ 61,000 per farmer in 1999). Roughly three-quarters of US farmers are systematically losing money from agriculture and survive only from non-agriculture income (retirement, urban jobs, hobby farms, etc.). In much the same way, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) consumes one-half of the budget of the European Union, and the high prices to support the CAP mainly benefit the largest farmers. It is enough to say that less than 20% of European farmers benefit from the incentives to export, which Europe has been slow to phase out. Besides the problem of subsidies being concentrated in the hands of a small group of beneficiaries, other indicators display inconsistencies of the agricultural policies in the developed countries, such as: (a) in all those countries, agriculture has been losing relative importance as a percentage of GDP and employment, which means that its capacity of political attraction will be reduced overtime; (b) despite increasing incentives, two thirds of European and American farmers abandoned agricultural activities since the end of the World War II, and the exodus is still advancing; (c) there is increased aging of the rural population, since the descendents of small farmers do not want to continue in agriculture; and (d) there is a transfer of subsidies via market support prices to the land price in Europe and US. Recent studies in the US show that 37% of the benefits of the commodities programs (market support prices and other payments per ton or hectare) go to the landlords. In other words, the policy ends up stimulating an undesirable rentseeking behavior in the agricultural sector. c) New Domestic Pressures The inconsistencies mentioned above have moved important sectors to favor a broader reform in trade and agricultural policies. On the one hand, organizations of industrial and end consumers and an important part of the American and European media are showing stronger support for agricultural policy reforms. On the other hand, in some countries there is increased pressure for a more “extensive” agricultural policy model, with less use of modern inputs (by stimulating organic production, for instance) and more respect for environmental preservation8. In reality, there is a conflict of interest between political and budgetary forces. Politically, the preservation of interests of environmentalists (represented mainly by non-governmental organizations) tend to be in conflict with the farmers’ trade interests, mainly through a strong opposition to the traditional support systems of agriculture. Consequently, there is a growing competition between the allocation of resources for traditional policies of price support and for conservation policies. This conflict has already emerged with some strength in the 2002 Farm Bill debates of the US Congress. 8 . This new orientation, already discussed, is reflected very clearly in the recent position paper of the German Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture, “EU Agricultural Policy for the Future”. 23 d) Growing International Pressures Along with the pressures that resulted from the new WTO multilateral trade round, where it seems that countries from the Cairns Group and others will have a stronger voice, the agricultural debate also tends to play a central role for many countries in regional forums as well. Such is the case of the FTAA, where Mercosur countries will certainly be demanding a balanced agreement that will have more effects on agricultural liberalization than was found in NAFTA. At the same time, 10 countries from Eastern Europe will pressure the European Union to expand their agricultural policy, which will entail a significant change to the current model. Similarly, the European Union tends to face a new assemblage of forces with the United Kingdom and Germany now pushing for a broader CAP reform. Internationally, several presidents of multilateral organizations, leaders of large private corporations and non-governmental organizations have increased pressure for change. The recent communiqué by the World Economic Forum shows an increased discontent with agricultural protection. It was signed by representatives of WTO, OECD, World Bank and FAO, and by non-governmental organizations such as Consumers International and Catholic Agency for Overseas Development as well as by presidents of corporations like Cargill, Unilever, Coca-Cola, General Mills, Kraft, Nestlé, Royal Ahold, A.T. Kearney and Sara Lee. e) Internationalization of Large Agribusiness Corporations There are strong movements towards the internationalization of agribusiness firms. Behind traditional commodities like soybean and chicken there are about half-dozen global players acting at the same time in the main producing regions of the world. In general, transnational corporations try to take advantage of cost gaps, tariffs and national incentives. Most of the time, these enterprises attempt to maintain their “market reserves” in their headquarter countries, leaving the production and exploration of new markets abroad. Such firms understand cost differences and competitiveness and know that they can operate in a much more efficient way with production and export bases abroad, to supply the local and third markets. While this internationalization grows in investment terms and mergers and acquisitions, the interests of these firms converge more and more with the interests of countries interested in elimination of protections, especially because the long-term value of the assets of these enterprises abroad is at stake. f) International Migration of Farmers In a very preliminary way, a growing movement of commercial farmers can be noticed worldwide, pushed by one or more of the following factors: (a) large differences in land prices and labor costs between countries with similar production conditions; (b) strong differences in the rigor of environmental laws, which makes the cost of production much higher in some regions (Netherlands and Denmark are good examples); and (c) difficulty in expanding agriculture horizontally by exploring economies of scale, due to supply-control mechanisms (quotas, set-aside, etc.) As the current model of agriculture policy of the US and Europe is maintained, these differences become stronger. Therefore, Dutch farmers migrate to Eastern Europe, to the U.S. mid-west and to Australia. American farmers buy cheap land in the Brazilian Mid-west region. It is quite possible that the “farmers’ globalization” will evolve at a much faster process than the “agricultural globalization”. The following table summarizes the main pressures in favor and against agricultural protectionist policies and subsidies in the modern world. 24 Table 3. Pressures in Favor and Against Agricultural Protectionism • • • • • • • In Favor Intense Lobbying by Agriculture Interest Groups The Argument for Food Security Quality Standards and Food Safety Intrinsic Characteristics of Agriculture Agricultural Non-Trade Concerns (NTC) Food Dependence (Net Food Importers) Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) • • • • • • Against The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and the Cairns Group Agricultural Policy Inconsistencies in the Developed World New Domestic Pressures. Growing International Pressures. Internationalization of Agribusiness Corporations International Migration of Farmers. III.2. Agricultural Market Access and Subsidies in the Western Hemisphere 9 III.2.1. Tariff Structure and Trade Profile in the Western Hemisphere Despite the achievements of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA), the agricultural sector continues to be the most protected sector in the world economy. While protection through tariffs remains the main form of trade protection, agricultural products are unique in that they are also protected through specific and compound tariffs, tariff rate quotas, sanitary restrictions and many different types of non-tariff barriers (licensing, standards, voluntary export restrictions, prohibitions, state trading, etc.). As a result of the “tariffication” effort of the URAA, many products that used to be protected with import quotas are now protected through Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs). In this case, lower “within access commitment” rates are set for specified quantities, and higher “over access commitment” rates are set for quantities that exceed the quota. The in-quota tariff would be the tariff rate up to the quota limit, and the over-quota tariff is the higher duty rate. The first step in developing tariff profiles is to convert specific and mixed tariffs10 into ad valorem equivalents (AVE). According to the WTO, ad valorem equivalents are usually calculated “either by comparing collected custom revenues to the value of imports or by comparing unit values of traded products with the applied non-ad valorem tariff”. The methodology followed in this study to obtain ad valorem equivalents was to divide the product’s specific rate by its import price. In this case the price was calculated by dividing the value of imports by the quantity of imports. Where no trade data was available, the price of the closest related product was used. The data used came from the 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas (HDA) and the Agricultural Market Access Database (AMAD).11 9 . See Jank & Finch (2002) and Gibson, Wainio, Whitley & Bohman (2001) for a detailed analysis and methodological issues regarding the measurement of protection in agriculture. 10 . Specific tariffs are tariffs that are set as a monetary amount per unit of import, i.e. a product can have a specific tariff, which charges $1.50 per kilogram. Countries may also combine ad valorem and specific tariffs so that a product’s tariff may be the sum of the ad valorem tariff plus the specific tariff, called mixed or compound tariffs. 11 . To analyze and compare the level of protection several country databases where created for specific countries with year 2000 data. The objective was to compile in one database all trade-related data available for agricultural products by country. The databases include data in 8-digit (or more) Harmonized System Code and include product descriptions, MFN ad valorem tariffs, MFN specific and mixed tariffs, preferential rates, and ad valorem equivalents for such tariffs, imports value, quantity, imports price, exports value, export volume, indication of whether the tariff is a Tariff Rate Quota, and tariff peaks. In addition, the data was also analyzed in an aggregate basis by being grouped in 43 “sensitive” groups of products based on the International Bilateral Agricultural Trade (IBAT) Database.11 Once all tariffs were expressed in terms of ad valorem equivalents, we were able to calculate the number of tariff lines and TRQs, mean, 25 In order to analyze agricultural trade protection in the Western Hemisphere, a selection of key players was made, and it includes at least one member per trade agreement. The countries being analyzed are United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic. As can be seen in Figure 8, the European Union has the highest proportion of specific tariffs at 39%, closely followed by the US at 37% and Canada with 19% and Mexico with 1%. Brazil, Chile, Peru, the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica only use ad valorem tariffs. Figure 8. Comparative Tariff Structure (2000): Percentage of Ad Valorem, Specific and Mixed Tariffs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EU CR PERU DR CHILE BRAZIL MEXICO CANADA USA Ad Valorem Specific Rates Mixed Note: DR (Dominican Republic) and CR (Costa Rica) Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas. Figure 9 shows that Mexico has the highest mean tariff at 23.3%, followed by the Dominican Republic with 21.2% and Canada with 20.1%. The US has the second lowest average tariff at 11.4%, after Chile. In the case of Chile, even though their ad valorem tariffs appear to be the lowest, set at 9% for all products, agricultural imports are subject to price bands and other restrictions that significantly protect against imports. median, tariff dispersion, maximum and minimum tariffs, and frequency distributions. J.C. Bureau from INRA-France provided data for the European Union. 26 Figure 9. Comparative Tariff Structure (2000): Means and Medians 3.0 5 9.0 3.7 9.0 11.4 13.0 12.6 14.0 12.0 13.8 8.7 11.0 15 10 Median 17.1 18.0 20 Mean 20.1 21.2 23.3 % 25 25.0 30 - CHILE USA BRAZIL CR PERU EU CANADA DR MEXICO Note: DR (Dominican Republic) and CR (Costa Rica) Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas. In those countries where the median is far greater than the mean, such as the Dominican Republic, it indicates that very low tariffs for some products result in a low mean, although most tariffs are high. The opposite is true for countries like the US, Canada, the E.U. and Mexico, where the highest tariffs are concentrated in few products, but most tariffs are very low. In other words, these four countries are applying a small number of very high tariffs, commonly known as tariff peaks or megatariffs, while keeping the rest of their tariffs at low levels. In the case of Costa Rica and Brazil, since the mean and median are almost identical, it indicates that the most frequent tariffs are very close to the mean tariff. Figure 10 shows the frequency distribution of the countries’ tariff structure. The countries’ tariff lines were classified in five different tariff ranges to evaluate the percentage of lines with rates ranging from 0%, 0% to 15%, 15% to 30% and above 50%. This analysis provided very interesting results. While the US has the lowest average tariff (11.4%), four percent of its tariff lines (sixty-one lines) have rates above 50% and in some cases up to 350% (as is the case of some tobacco lines). Nevertheless, the US’s high proportion of low rates (83% of its tariff lines have rates below 15%) offset the impact of its megatariffs and ultimately result in a low overall average. In the case of Canada its high overall average (20.8%) comes from the levels of high tariffs (7% of its tariffs, or 98 tariff lines, are above 50% rates) with some products from the milling industry reaching rates of up to 530%. The same is true for Mexico whose 5% of tariff lines (54 lines) are above 50% and 86% are between 0% and 30% resulting in a high overall average of 23%. 27 Figure 10. Comparative Tariff Structure (2000): Frequency Distribution 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EU 15% - 30% CR 0% - 15% PERU DR CHILE BRAZIL MEXICO CANADA USA 0% 30% - 50% >50% Note: DR (Dominican Republic) and CR (Costa Rica) Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas. Figure 11 shows the value of agricultural imports. The EU has the highest value of imports, and is ranked number one in world imports, followed by the US Figure 11. Value of Agricultural Imports (US$ Million, 2000) 70 65.8 60 50 41.9 40 30 20 11.7 9.8 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 DR PERU CR 4.0 CHILE 10 0 EU BRAZIL MEXICO CANADA USA Note: DR (Dominican Republic) and CR (Costa Rica) Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas. Figures 12 through 19 show the average tariff rates and imports by the main “sensitive” groups of agricultural products in the FTAA region. The US’ most protected groups are tobacco, dairy, peanuts, orange juice and sugar. Although one would expect that imports for such products would be low due to high tariff rates, the presence of TRQs (low in-quota rates) and/or preferential rates from the US’s trade agreements allow for imports of those products. Thirteen products groups have 28 an average tariff higher than the US’ mean of 11.4%, most of them very “sensitive” for other Latin American countries. For the US the five most protected tariff lines are: over-quota tobacco lines with rates of 350%; several dairy products being infant formula and milk & cream the most protected with rates of 253% and 236% respectively; chocolates and other products using dairy and sugar; peanuts and peanut preparations with rates of 163% and 131%; and fructose syrup and cane and beet sugar with 159% and 109%. In the case of Canada, twelve product groups have average rates above its mean of 20.8%. The most protected sectors are beverages, cocoa processed products, coffee (because of high protection of processed coffees), cheeses, and many other dairy products, eggs and feed products. For the groups with average rates above the mean, imports appear to be very low. Canada has the highest tariffs of all 8 countries. The most protected products by far fall under the category of dairy products and dairy preparations with cream (442%); milk (417%); butter (325%) and ice cream (291%) being amongst the most protected. In addition, some tariff lines in meat products and preparations are also highly protected, especially fowl livers (520%), poultry preparations (331%) and several fowl cuts (271%). Mexico has ten product groups with average rates above the mean. Among the most protected groups are swine meat, cheese, milk powder, tobacco and cocoa products. Imports for the groups above the mean are low, except for processed vegetable imports that mainly come from the US due to NAFTA preferences. Brazil has low rates overall with the lowest total mean after the US. As mentioned earlier, Brazil’s median is so close to the mean that most tariff lines are very close to the mean tariff of 12.5%. Nevertheless, protection can be seen in product groups such as dairy powder, ethanol, beverages, cheeses and food preparations, the maximum Brazilian tariff being 27%. In Chile’s case, as mentioned earlier, the across the board rate of 9% can be misleading. Although Chile appears to have very low tariff protection, the reality is that the agriculture sector is highly protected through non-tariff barriers such as price bands. The level of protection has translated into low levels of agricultural imports, mostly in grains, bovine meat, and fats and oils. Peru has relatively low tariff rates with a mean of 17% and a median of 12%. The maximum tariff is 30% and is applied to poultry meat. The other most protected sectors are pork meat, cheese, milk powder, tropical fruits, and juices. Costa Rica has a low mean of 13.8% and median of 14%. Nevertheless, eight product groups have average rates well above the mean with a maximum rate of 162%. The most protected sectors are dairy powder, poultry and pork meat, other dairy, sugars and cheese. The Dominican Republic has an average tariff of 21% and a median of 25%. Most of its product groups (30) have average rates above the mean. Interestingly, cheese, juice, orange juice, processed fruits, poultry meat and nuts have the same average rate of 35%. 29 Coffee Dairy (other) 30 Hides & Skins Oilseeds Live Animals Meat: Pork NES Essential oils Meat (other) Live Plants Grains Wheat & Malt Fibers Starches T a riff L in e s 1736 % A d V a lo re m 57 % S p e c ific 37 % M ix e d 7 M ean 1 1 .4 % M e d ia n 3 .7 % S t. D e v 3 2 .0 % M ax 3 5 0 .0 % No. TRQs 376 A g . Im p .('0 0 0 ) $ 4 1 ,9 4 6 60 50 40 10 NES Nuts Oilseeds (proc) 7 ,8 0 0 Veg (proc) Veg (F&D) Tobacco Tea & Spices Sugars 70 Starches 80 Sweeteners 90 PTO 18 5 1 1 2 1 0 2 Soybeans Peanuts Oilseeds (proc) Oilseeds Nuts 70 Flowers 80 Meat (other) Temperate Fruits Tea & Spices Beverages Fats & Oils Veg (F&D) Veg (proc) Coffee Fruits (proc) Meat: Bovine PTO Feed Tropical Fruits Juice Meat: Poultry Soybeans Grains (proc) Eggs Alcohol Sweeteners Cocoa Food prep. Dairy (cheese) Sugars Orange Juice 90 Meat: Poultry Meat: Pork Meat: Bovine Peanuts Dairy (other) 2 ,5 0 0 2 ,7 0 0 Live Plants Live Animals Hides & Skins Wheat & Malt Grains (proc) Grains Fruits (proc) Orange Juice Juice Tropical Fruits Temperate Fruits Food prep. Flowers Fibers Feed Fats & Oils Alcohol Essential oils Eggs Dairy (Powder) Tobacco Dairy (Powder) 2 ,0 0 0 1250 1000 750 T a riff L in es 13 41 % A d V alo rem 73 % S p ec ific 19 % M ixe d 10 2 M e an 2 0.1 % M e d ian 3.0 % S t. D e v 6 1.7% M ax 5 30 .0 % No. TRQ s 87 A g . Im p .('00 0) $ 11 ,6 62 60 1250 50 1000 40 10 Imports (US$ Millions) 0 Dairy (cheese) 100 Cocoa 0 Beverages Average Ad Valorem Equivalent (%) 100 Imports (US$ Millions) Average Ad Valorem Equivalent (%) Figures 12-19 Tariff and Trade Import Profiles for 43 “Sensitive” Groups of Products (2000) Figure 12. United States 2000 1750 1500 30 20 500 250 0 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. Figure 13. Canada 2000 1750 1500 750 30 20 500 250 0 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. 31 NES 40 10 Live Plants 50 Live Animals Peanuts Essential oils Tropical Fruits Food prep. Soybean Feed PTO Sugars Meat: Bovine Sweeteners Flowers & Foilage Dairy (other) Grains NES Alcohol Veg (F&D) Fibers Live Animals Meat (other) Wheat & Malt Orange Juice Coffee Oilseeds (proc) Oilseeds Live Plants Starches Fats & Oils Tea & Spices Temperate Fruits Nuts Eggs Fruits (proc) Juice Meat: Poultry Grains (proc) Veg (proc) Beverages Hides & Skins Cocoa Tobacco Dairy (Powder) 60 Oilseeds Hides & Skins 80 Fibers 90 Grains 100 Peanuts Feed Veg (F&D) Flowers Meat: Pork Dairy (cheese) Average Ad Valorem Equivalent (%) 70 Eggs Fats & Oils Wheat & Malt Oilseeds (proc) Meat (other) Soybeans Nuts Meat: Bovine Temperate Fruits Tropical Fruits Essential oils Tea & Spices Meat: Pork PTO Meat: Poultry Veg (proc) Starches Coffee Grains (proc) Orange Juice Juice Fruits (proc) Dairy (other) Tobacco Cocoa Sugars Food prep. 0 Sweeteners Dairy (cheese) Beverages Alcohol 80 1069 95 1 4 2 3 .3 % 8 .7 % 3 7 .8 % 2 6 0 .0 % 48 $ 9 ,7 9 0 1250 1000 750 T a riff L in e s 940 % A d V a lo re m 0 % S p e c ific 0 % M ix e d 0 M ean 1 2 .6 % M e d ia n 1 3 .0 % S t. D e v 5 .8 % M ax 2 7 .0 % N o. TR Q s 1 A g . Im p . ('0 0 0 ) $ 3 ,9 6 8 60 1250 50 1000 40 750 30 20 500 10 250 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. 0 Imports (US$ Millions) 0 Dairy (Powder) 90 T a riff L in e s % Ad V al % S p e c ific % M ix e d M ean M e d ia n S t. D e v M ax No. TRQs A g . Im p .('0 0 0 ) Imports (US$ Millions) Average Ad Valorem Equivalent % 100 173 Figure 14. Mexico 2000 1750 1500 30 20 500 250 0 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. Figure 15. Brazil 2000 1750 70 1500 Meat: Pork 32 Tobacco NES Veg (proc) Veg (F&D) Tobacco Tea & Spices Sugars Sweeteners Starches T a riff L in e s % A d V a lo re m % S p e c ific % M ix e d M ean M e d ia n S t.D e v . N o. T RQ s A g . Im p .('0 0 0 ) Soybeans T a riff L in e s % A d V a lo re m % S p e c ific % M ix e d M ean M e d ia n S t.D e v M ax No. TRQs A g . Im p .('0 0 0 ) Oilseeds (proc) Oilseeds Live Plants 80 Live Animals 90 PTO Soybeans Peanuts Oilseeds (proc) Oilseeds Nuts Meat (other) Meat: Poultry Meat: Pork Meat: Bovine Live Plants Live Animals Hides & Skins Wheat & Malt Grains (proc) Grains Fruits (proc) Orange Juice Juice Tropical Fruits Temperate Fruits Food prep. Flowers Fibers Feed Fats & Oils Alcohol Essential oils Eggs Dairy (Powder) Dairy (other) Dairy (cheese) 80 Hides & Skins Cocoa Coffee 90 Flowers 100 Fibers Feed Alcohol Essential oils Eggs NES Starches Fats & Oils Food prep. Tea & Spices Sugars Sweeteners Peanuts Beverages Grains Cocoa Wheat & Malt Coffee Veg (F&D) Grains (proc) PTO Veg (proc) Dairy (other) Meat: Bovine Meat (other) Temperate Fruits Nuts Fruits (proc) Orange Juice Juice Tropical Fruits Dairy (Powder) Dairy (cheese) 100 647 100 0 0 9 .0 % 9 .0 % 0 .0 % 0 $ 1 ,2 8 6 50 40 10 900 100 0 0 1 7 .1 % 1 2 .0 % 6 .5 % 3 0 .0 % 0 $ 9 0 5 .6 60 1250 50 1000 40 750 30 20 500 10 250 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. 0 Imports (US$ Millions) 0 Beverages 0 Meat: Poultry Average Ad Valorem Equivalent (%) 60 Imports (US$ Millions) Average Ad Valorem Equivalent (%) Figure 16. Chile 2000 1750 70 1500 1250 1000 750 30 20 500 250 0 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. Figure 17. Peru 2000 1750 70 1500 33 Fibers Essential oils Live Plants NES Oilseeds Wheat & Malt Starches Hides & Skins 113 8 100 0 0 1 3.8% 14.0% 2 0.0% 1 62 .0 % 67 $4 55.8 6 60 50 40 10 Live Plants Fibers T ariff L ines % Ad Valo rem % Sp ecific % M ixed M ean M ed ian S t.D ev M ax No. TRQs Ag . Im p . ('000) Oilseeds Live Animals NES 70 Feed 80 Wheat & Malt 90 Grains 100 Peanuts Soybeans 70 Live Animals Peanuts Soybeans Eggs Fats & Oils Feed Oilseeds (proc) Nuts Orange Juice Food prep. Tea & Spices Cocoa Juice Meat: Bovine Sweeteners Tobacco Grains Grains (proc) Veg (F&D) Veg (proc) Alcohol Temperate Fruits Flowers Fruits (proc) Beverages Coffee Tropical Fruits PTO Meat (other) Meat: Pork Dairy (cheese) Sugars Dairy (other) 80 Hides & Skins Oilseeds (proc) Starches Sweeteners Sugars Essential oils Fats & Oils Eggs Dairy (Powder) Grains (proc) Veg (F&D) Meat: Bovine Tropical Fruits Coffee Flowers Tobacco Dairy (other) Tea & Spices Cocoa Meat (other) PTO Meat: Pork Food prep. Veg (proc) Alcohol Beverages Temperate Fruits Nuts Meat: Poultry Fruits (proc) Orange Juice Meat: Poultry Dairy (Powder) 90 T ariff L in es % A d V alo re m % S p ec ific % M ix ed M ea n M ed ian S t.D ev M ax N o. TRQ s A g . Im p .('00 0) 12 5 0 10 0 0 778 100 0 0 21.2% 25.0% 10.6% 35.0% 0 $659.2 60 1 250 50 1 000 40 7 50 30 20 5 00 10 2 50 0 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. Imports (US$ Millions) 0 Juice 0 Dairy (cheese) Average Ad Valorem Equivalent (%) 100 Imports (US$ Millions) Average Ad Valorem Equivalent (%) Figure 18. Cost Rica 20 0 0 17 5 0 15 0 0 75 0 30 20 50 0 25 0 0 PTO: Potatoes, Tomatoes and Onions. NES: Others. Source: 2001 Hemispheric Database of the Americas and AMAD. Author’s calculations. Figure 19. Dominican Republic 2 000 1 750 1 500 III.2.2. Domestic and Export Agricultural Subsidies One of the major breakthroughs of the URAA was the recognition of the direct link between domestic agricultural policies and international trade. A distinction was established between domestic policies that: i) do not or minimally distort trade (“green box”); and ii) those that distort trade (“amber box” and “blue box”). a) Domestic Support Notifications The Agreement on Agriculture sets out a number of general and measure-specific criteria which, when met, allow subsidies to be placed in the green box. These measures are exempt from reduction commitments and can even be increased without any financial limitation under the WTO. The general criteria are that the measures must have no, or at most minimal, trade distorting effects or effects on price support or production. In addition to measures covered by the green box, two other categories of domestic support measures are exempt from reduction commitments under the URAA: certain developmental policies in developing countries (S&D box) and the government payments under production-limiting programs (blue box). All domestic support measures considered distorting production and trade fell into the amber box, and had reduction commitments under the Agreement. Amber box subsidies are measured through an indicator named Total Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS). Tables 4 and 5 show, respectively, the notifications on green and blue box (both categories exempt from reduction commitments) for all FTAA countries, compared to the major world “players” in subsidies. Table 6 shows the evolution on amber box notifications, through the AMS indicator. As can be seen, the FTAA has the highest proportion of green box commitments at 46.6% of which 87.5% are US commitments and the E.U. has a low 19% green box commitments. On the other hand, the E.U. has the highest percentage of blue and amber box commitments at 88.8% and 58.1% respectively, while the FTAA has 6.7% and 9% respectively. The US amber box commitments have experienced a growth trend since 1995 while E.U. commitments have experienced a downward trend. 34 Table 4. FTAA Members’ and WTO Notifications on Green Box (US$ Millions) 1995 United States Brazil Mexico Canada Venezuela Colombia Argentina Chile Peru Trinidad & Tobago Costa Rica Uruguay Paraguay Dominican Rep. Jamaica FTAA TOTAL European Union "Like-Minded" Others WORLD TOTAL 1996 1997 1998 Average 46,041 4,883 1,625 1,534 539 318 137 176 80 61 67 18 23 7 55,509 51,825 2,600 1,443 1,452 618 578 237 169 109 98 30 33 9 10 7 59,218 51,252 3,458 1,460 859 613 350 49,824 2,420 1,448 201 223 58 40 37 22 9 8 58,590 95 24,189 41,681 8,812 130,191 26,598 35,301 7,524 128,641 20,475 31,406 6,465 116,936 % FTAA % World 22 39 19 15 8 54,041 49,736 3,340 1,494 1,282 590 349 187 160 137 72 40 32 18 10 6 56,840 87.5% 5.9% 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 40.8% 2.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.6% 21,537 31,062 5,650 112,290 23,200 34,863 7,113 122,014 ----- 19.0% 28.6% 5.8% 100.0% 151 Note: “Like-Minded” countries are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Japan and Korea. Source: WTO Table 5. FTAA Members’ Notifications on Blue Box (US$ Millions) United States (FTAA) European Union "Like-Minded" Others WORLD TOTAL 1995 7,030 26,850 1,147 35,028 1996 25,848 1,124 26,973 1997 23,040 1,043 24,084 1998 17,762 1,436 19,198 Average % FTAA % World 1,758 100% 6.7% 23,375 -88.8% 1,188 -4.5% -0.0% 26,321 -100% Note: “Like-Minded” countries are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Japan and Korea. Source: WTO 35 Table 6. FTAA Members’ Notifications on Amber Box (AMS) US$ Million United States Mexico Canada Venezuela Argentina Colombia Brazil FTAA TOTAL European Union "Like-Minded" Others WORLD TOTAL 1995 1996 6,214 5,898 452 303 568 450 542 331 123 84 58 4 7,957 7,070 64,436 61,264 44,716 37,049 2,427 2,396 119,536 107,779 1997 6,238 1,058 364 457 14 8,131 56,571 32,221 2,228 99,151 1998 10,400 1,258 Average % FTAA % World 7,188 82.4% 7.1% 768 8.8% 0.8% 461 5.3% 0.5% 443 5.1% 0.4% 69 0.8% 0.1% 10 22 0.2% 0.0% 83 21 0.2% 0.0% 11,751 8,727 100.0% 8.6% 52,453 58,681 -58.1% 11,479 31,366 -31.1% 1,750 2,200 -2.2% 77,433 100,975 -- 100.0% Note: (1) Amber Box includes subsidies addressed in the Total Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS) reduction commitments, deemed to have the most distorting effects on trade. (2) “Like-Minded” countries are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Japan and Korea. Source: WTO. When comparing official subsidy notifications using Total AMS data to the subsidies measured annually by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the results are very contradictory. OECD data shows that total support levels to agriculture in its members’ countries remains high, at around $330 billion per year as measured by the Total Support Estimate (TSE). According to the last OECD report,12 despite some shift away from market price support and output payments, these methods continue to be the dominant forms of support (around 70 percent of the total) in most OECD countries, insulating producers from world market signals and distorting global production and trade. Figure 20 compares amber box commitments (AMS) with the Producer Support Estimate (PSE) indicator of OECD. Despite the fact that the Total AMS methodology is based on the OECD methodology (PSE), AMS indicators represent less than one-half of the PSE indicators. Data shows that while AMS presents a decrease of trade-distorting subsidies at the end of the 90’s, the PSE indicates an increase in subsidies.13 12 . According to the OECD (2001) report, the prices received by farmers in member countries of the OECD in 19982000 were almost 50% higher than those on the world market were. The producer support estimate per farmer was $25,190 in Japan, $21,785 in Korea, $ 20,803 in the US and $16,028 in the E.U. 13 . Despite the reduction in the current total AMS, the level of agricultural support as measured by the PSE remains quite high and the gap between the PSE and AMS is increasing over time. There are several reasons explaining why the AMS is a poor indicator of production and trade distortions, among them the following: a) Total AMS production commitments are sector-wide, not product-specific (as is the PSE). This gives countries the opportunity to reduce support on some products leaving other products’ support unchanged or even higher. Countries’ notifications show that some of them have increased support to certain specific products. b) The market price support component of the AMS is based on the domestic administered support price and a fixed base-period world reference price. The domestic administered support price may be a poor proxy for the domestic market price, while the fixed external reference price of support does not represent the actual border price, which brings into question the measure of price support as defined by the URAA (the PSE uses current international reference prices). c) The exclusion of price support in cases where no administered price exists provides wide flexibility to governments in choosing policy instruments. d) The AMS only includes support provided through domestic measures and it does not capture distortions arising from trade measures 36 Figure 20. Global Subsidies Comparison: Evolution of WTO-AMS and OECD-PSE 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Others United States Japan+Korea European Union 86-88 1995 1996 1997 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - 1998 86-88 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Note: PSE: “Producer Support Estimate” from OECD; AMS: “Aggregate Measurement of Support” of WTO. Source: OECD-PSE Database and WTO Members’ Notifications. b) Export Subsidies Notifications The proliferation of export subsidies in the years leading to the Uruguay Round was one of the key issues that were addressed in the agricultural negotiations. While under GATT export subsidies for industrial products have been prohibited along the multilateral rounds, in the case of agriculture such subsidies were only subject to limited disciplines that moreover did not prove to be operational. Table 7 shows the evolution of export subsidies notifications in FTAA area, compared to other major world players in this area. The European Union alone represents 88 percent of the value of export subsidies notified to the WTO. The E.U. has had, or has come very close to having, problems in meeting its export subsidy commitments under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture in several key commodity areas: dairy products (notably cheese), rice, wine, beef, olive oil, poultry, and fresh fruit and vegetables.14 Table 7. Notifications on Export Subsidies (US$ Millions) United States Costa Rica Colombia Canada Mexico Venezuela FTAA TOTAL European Union "Like-Minded" Others WORLD TOTAL 1995 26 18 38 3 85 6,292 619 116 7,112 1996 122 22 4 20 168 6,684 527 93 7,472 1997 112 105 25 36 2 280 4,915 459 91 5,745 1998 147 123 23 4 297 5,843 440 62 6,642 Average 102 57 22 14 10 8 208 5,934 511 91 6,743 %FTAA 49.0% 27.5% 10.6% 6.7% 4.8% 4.0% 100.0% ----- % World 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 88.0% 7.6% 1.3% 100.0% Source: WTO that are excluded from the AMS provisions (e.g. tariffs and export subsidies). For more details, see Diakosavvas (2001) and Blandford (2001). 14 . According to Blandford (2001), “in terms of the future, it seems clear that further reductions in the allowable volumes and values of subsidized exports would likely force adjustment in domestic price support programs in the E.U.”. 37 As can be seen in Table 7, FTAA countries traditionally have had low levels of export subsidies since other measures with similar effects have been implemented. These measures include officially supported export credits on agriculture, international food aid programs, and state trading enterprises (STE), export restrictions (taxes, for example), and revenue pooling arrangements. These programs have similar effects on exports as export subsidies but are not being regulated under WTO. Therefore, it would be easy for the region to reduce or eliminate export subsidies in future negotiations. In the case of the European Union it might prove to be a more sensitive issue. III.3. Conclusion: Perspectives for agricultural liberalization in the Western Hemisphere Agriculture is a very sensitive sector for most Western Hemispheric countries and a very complex and heterogeneous sector in the Americas that will be a strategic issue in the negotiations of the FTAA. It has a different importance and meaning in every country. Overall, it represents a high percentage of the economically active population, GDP and exports. For small economies, such as most of the Caribbean countries, it means a strong dependence on preferential or duty-free access agreements. Agricultural liberalization and the elimination of subsidies is a very sensitive issue for the so-called “net food importer” countries15, as they show strong dependence on low-cost food imports, and consequently some resistance to eliminate the export incentives in the developed world, like agricultural export subsidies and credits, food aid mechanisms, etc. In countries such as Brazil and Argentina, agribusiness is a very competitive sector with strong potential for generating trade balance surpluses after the recent problems of current account deficits. These countries can be expected to demand further liberalization. For the US and Canada, agriculture is a politically sensitive sector where lobbies in the Congress wield broad bargaining power capabilities. In addition to the interests that drive each country, the FTAA negotiations on agriculture have a strong relationship to multilateral negotiations (WTO Development Agenda), other regional agreements (such as NAFTA and EU-Mercosul) and bilateral arrangements (US-Chile, for instance). If Western Hemispheric countries continue to invest political and human capital in the FTAA process, the launch of the WTO’s new “Development Agenda” will be beneficial for hemispheric agricultural integration. The new round will allow for the separation of the two most sensitive issues - market access and subsidies - with market access being primarily discussed at a regional level and subsidies at the multilateral level. 15 . In July 1999, the “net food importing developing countries” in the Western Hemisphere were Barbados, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Jamaica, Peru, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. 38 CHAPTER IV. MARKET ACCESS IN THE FTAA IV.1. Development of the FTAA process: 1995-2002 In December 1994, the Presidents and Heads of State of the 34 democratic nations of the Western Hemisphere decided to begin preparatory work for the construction of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). They agreed that this should be established by the year 2005. To accomplish this an Action Plan was established, setting the basic goals and an institutional framework to launch the initiative.16 The framework for preparatory work included the creation of a number of technical working groups, supervised periodically by the Meeting of Ministers for Trade of the Hemisphere. From 1995 to 1998, twelve Working Groups were established and began work. Their most important task was to prepare for negotiations for a free trade area.17 Their work consisted essentially of a preliminary exchange of perspectives on the matters to be negotiated later, while also gathering information and setting up databases that would be useful for the negotiations.18 Having completed this pre-negotiation stage, the Ministers decided in 1998 to launch the negotiation stage itself. An agreement was reached on the goals and objectives of the negotiations, the Working Groups were restructured in order to turn them into nine Negotiating Groups with specific mandates;19 the Trade Negotiations Committee was established at the viceministerial level as the executive body of the process; the FTAA Administrative Secretariat was formed to provide logistical support for the process; and technical support was requested of the Tripartite Committee composed of the Inter-American Development Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and the Organization of American States. A number of consultative groups and technical committees were also set up to support specific aspects of FTAA discussions.20 Achieving a free trade area that includes 34 diverse countries has been a complex and ambitious undertaking. The FTAA discussions have advanced without interruption since 1994 and considerable progress has been made to date. It could be argued that the FTAA process is now half complete: solid bases for negotiating methods and procedures have been established, as well as for the infrastructure/logistic and technical support needed to sustain negotiations until the final goal is reached in 2005. 16 . See Summit of the Americas, December 1994, Miami, Action Plan, Section II, Promoting Prosperity through Economic Integration and Free Trade. 17 . The twelve working groups were set up to cover these areas: 1) Tariffs and Non-tariff Measures; 2) Customs Procedures and Rules of Origin; 3) Standards and Technical Barriers to Trade; 4) Services; 5) Investments; 6) Intellectual Property Rights; 7) Government Procurement; 8) Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures; 9) Subsidies, Antidumping and Countervailing Duties; 10) Smaller Economies; 11) Dispute Settlement; and 12) Competition Policy. 18 . The results of much of this work are available at the FTAA official website: www.ftaa-alca.org 19 . The nine Negotiating Groups are: 1) Market Access; 2) Agriculture; 3) Services; 4) Investments; 5) Government Procurement; 6) Intellectual Property Rights; 7) Competition Policy; 8) Subsidies, Antidumping and Countervailing Duties; and 9) Dispute Settlement. 20 . Specifically on the topics of Smaller Economies, Electronic Commerce, Participation of Civil Society, Business Facilitation and, recently, Institutional Issues. 39 IV.2. The agenda for negotiating market access for goods As part of the agreed restructuring prior to launching negotiations in 1998, the Ministers established the Negotiating Group on Market Access covering issues dealt with in three of the working groups, while adding new areas of negotiation. The main issues involve tariffs and nontariff measures, safeguard measures, rules of origin and related procedures, customs procedures and standards and technical barriers to trade.21 We review each of these areas in turn. a) Tariffs and non-tariff measures Tariff and non-tariff measures are usually the starting point for any trade agreement and this is also the case of the FTAA. The basic mandate is to establish a free trade area compatible with the basic principles of the WTO, in particular Article XXIV of the GATT of 1994 agreement. As a result, the 34 countries must negotiate a program to eliminate tariff barriers to substantially all trade in goods within 10 years. This could include different schedules or “baskets” for phasing out tariff barriers. The ministers have agreed that there will be no prior exclusions of goods or economic sectors. As part of the same issue, the group has instructions to deal also with special regimes, that is, customs-related schemes or others that grant special tariffs and/or tax treatment to the importation or exportation of goods (duty-free zones, maquilas, inward processing, transit, etc.). Recently, the ministers instructed the group to prepare recommendations on the methods and modalities of tariff negotiations. This work is essential to the structural design of the free trade area. It is hoped that once these methods and modalities have been approved, product-by-product negotiations will be launched as early as May 15, 2002. b) Safeguard measures In order to provide transitory palliative measures to a massive importation of goods that may cause injury to domestic industry, the group will have to design a regime of safeguard measures suitable for the FTAA. At their recent meeting in Buenos Aires in April 2001, the ministers instructed the group to step up its negotiations in this area. This highlights the importance they attribute to this issue. c) Rules and procedures of origin The group must design an origin regime with procedures that guarantee that only products originating in countries of the hemisphere will benefit from preferential tariff treatment derived from the FTAA. d) Customs-related procedures In order to facilitate trade, customs procedures must be simplified. Particular emphasis has been placed on facilitating the exchange of customs information, detecting and combating customsrelated infractions, and promoting mechanisms to guarantee that operations can be carried out in a transparent and efficient manner. e) Standards and technical barriers to trade The basic objective here is to identify, eliminate and prevent unnecessary technical barriers to trade. The group’s agenda is stated in relatively clear terms. However, the issues negotiated are not always self-contained units. The group faces a number of challenges in its negotiations, since 21 . See specific mandates in the San José Declaration, Annexes I and II. 40 many of the issues have implications for other FTAA negotiating groups or for other international trade negotiations. The countries will have to coordinate these interactions carefully. For example, the group has close connections with the Negotiating Group on Agriculture and, to a lesser extent, with the Subsidies, Dumping and Countervailing Duties and the Dispute Settlement Group. Beyond the scope of the FTAA, it will be important to carefully monitor the advances made in multilateral negotiations, especially those launched last November at the Doha Round.22 Many of these issues will be negotiated in both fora. IV.3. The Challenges Ahead The formal agenda of the Negotiating Group on Access to Markets hides behind it an enormous number of technical, political and economic challenges. The negotiators face a set of issues that are politically very sensitive and technically very complex. The challenges facing this stage of negotiations can be grouped broadly in three categories: (a) unraveling the “spaghetti bowl”23; (b) architectural issues and (c) others. Following is a very brief explanation of some of the main systemic challenges facing the negotiations on market access in the FTAA. The challenges urveyed here are only the tip of the iceberg. IV.3.1. Unraveling the “spaghetti bowl” The FTAA faces a difficult job in defining the terms of the FTAA’s coexistence with other trade agreements in the hemisphere. The ministers have coined a language24 that does not necessarily contribute to solving the technical problems involved. For practical purposes, more than 40 trade agreements now coexist in the hemisphere, in addition to other agreements that are now being negotiated or that will be negotiated before 2005. This implies the challenge of having to decide whether (or how) to deal with current and potential access conditions for the goods that will benefit from this complex set of trade agreements.25 As we have seen in the first part of this paper, each agreement has its own tariff reduction scheme, its own rules of origin, and its own technical, procedural and even documental systems.26 a) Multiplicity of phase-out schedules Many of these agreements have led, or are leading, to different complex programs to phase out trade barriers. The pace and speed of each depends on the results of negotiations among member states. Some of these also exclude certain goods or give special treatment to specific sectors. Consideration clearly must be given to what kind of treatment the FTAA can give these goods or sectors; or, if the treatment given under other agreements differs from that negotiated in the FTAA framework, it is worth considering whether both agreements can coexist. The “rules of origin” factor further complicates the problem, as we will see next. 22 . See Ministerial Declaration of the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the WTO, Doha, November 14, 2001. . The “spaghetti bowl” concept has been used in the specialized literature to denote the maze of trade agreements that have been adopted in recent years. See, for example Bhagwati and Panagariya (1996, page 3). 24 . The Ministerial Declarations made at the San José and Buenos Aires conferences establish literally that “The FTAA can co-exist with bilateral and subregional agreements, in so far as the rights and obligations under such agreements are not covered by or do not exceed the rights and obligations of the FTAA.” 25 . Despite these observations, it is important to remember that the agreements in force are the building blocks of FTAA construction. In many countries in the hemisphere, these agreements have helped build political consensus in favor of freer trade and the FTAA. 26 . A single source with a series of more detailed analysis of the main agreements and the market access issue is: Estevadeordal and Robert (2001). 23 41 b) Multiplicity of Rules of Origin Regimes In addition to the multitude of programs for phasing out trade barriers in the hemisphere, each agreement also has its own rules of origin regime.27 Rules of origin in themselves can add considerable complexity, both to negotiations and to their execution and verification. Likewise, the criteria for determining origin, the precise content of the “accumulation” clauses, and the specific rules for goods can vary greatly from agreement to agreement. This leaves us with the same question as before: How can different rules of origin schemes coexist, if only during the FTAA transition period? If a businessperson wants to export and has an FTAA rule of origin and another different rule for the same product under a bilateral agreement, how can his or her decision be facilitated? In fact, one of the basic aims of the FTAA is precisely this - to simplify trade in the hemisphere. At the technical and political levels, however, the question of coexistence is complex and will require a great deal of analysis. c) Multiplicity of technical and procedural requirements The agreements currently in force in the hemisphere often contain disciplines relating to exporting and importing procedures, document and labeling requirements, technical regulations and standards, and requirements for verification and certification.28 Once again, it will be up to the negotiators to define the best way of simplifying these requirements – something not always easy. The panorama is indeed complex for national negotiators and the options are not entirely clear. However, three possible scenarios for a solution are most likely: 1) the FTAA negotiates its own tariff elimination program, its own set of rules of origin and its own requirements, while exporters decide on a case-by-case basis whether to opt for FTAA treatment or for treatment in accordance with another agreement, depending on what best suits their interests; 2) the FTAA invalidates preexisting agreements on tariffs, origin and technical and procedural requirements, making FTAA criteria the only valid ones; 3) the FTAA does not step in to regulate tariffs, origin or procedural requirements among countries which already have a trade agreement in force. Each of these options has its advantages and disadvantages, some greater than others. It is clear that FTAA market access negotiations will be very complex, but the problem is broader. In fact, the spaghetti bowl problem is common throughout the FTAA, with identical dilemmas in the areas of investment and services. Many of these problems will likely be solved as the process advances and as the need for solutions becomes more intense. It is not clear which of these issues will be referred to specifically and expressly in the FTAA. What is very clear, however, is that the “spaghetti bowl” is one of the most significant matters that FTAA negotiators will have to take into account when designing the basic structure of the market access agreements. It is worth noting that if the FTAA manages to rationalize the spaghetti bowl, it will have achieved significant positive externality. It is still early to predict to what degree the FTAA will be able to do this, but there is no reason to be too pessimistic. Perhaps the most important point here is that the FTAA could facilitate convergence toward multilateralism and that, as a result, the FTAA could become a regional agreement that will contribute to the construction of a vigorous multilateral arrangement. 27 . For an in depth analysis of the different regimes, see Cornejo and Garay (1999, 2001). . For an idea of the vast number of agreements in this area, see the FTAA paper, Provisions on Standards and Conformity Assessment in Trade and Integration Agreements of the Western Hemisphere at the FTAA official website: <www.ftaa-alca.org>. 28 42 IV.3.2. Architectural Issues There are three key elements in the design of the FTAA market access program: the design of the transition programs, the origin regime and accumulation, and safeguard measures. The goal is to define the exact conditions under which goods can enter internal markets, both in terms of tariffs and origin requirements. a) The design of transitional programs As was mentioned above, negotiators will have to establish a free trade area in which substantially all trade will be liberalized within 10 years. They have many options as they begin to study the possibilities of a program to phase out tariffs in the hemisphere. The essential elements of tariff negotiations of this kind involve the base tariff; the number of “baskets” to be liberalized under the same schedule; the time frame and pace for reaching a zero percent tariff for each basket; the methods for allocating products to each basket; the possibility of excluding products from the liberalization program; the procedures for later negotiations to reach a balanced set of concessions among the 34 countries; the tariff nomenclature to be used in negotiations; the type of basic statistical information required; the methods for registering concessions; the possibility that a given country may have different concession schemes applicable to different countries or groups of countries (or on the contrary, whether there will be a concession scheme for each country applicable to the other 33 countries); the possibility of granting some kind of special treatment to certain countries with small economies; and so on. Each of these points is a major challenge and there may be significant differences of opinion regarding each of them. Before launching negotiations, the countries must define all these details so that negotiations are streamlined and balanced and do not suffer from a lack of clear methodology for tariff negotiations. In order to demonstrate the different points of view that could exist in each of the issues mentioned above, the base tariff serves as a good example. The definition of the base tariff corresponds to the definition of the tariff level for each type of merchandise that will be used as the starting point for phasing out tariffs when the FTAA comes into force after 2005. One option could be that the base be the most favored nation tariff effectively applied at the start of negotiations in May 2002. Another could be that the base tariff be the lowest most favored nation tariff applied between this date and the coming into effect of the Agreement. Still, another option is that the base tariff be the lowest tariff applicable in May 2002, including any preferential, unilateral or bilateral tariff or any other tariff of any other kind enjoyed by a country in any other country in the FTAA. Finally, there could be no base tariff role; in other words, countries could define the final goal (that is, when goods must reach a 0% tariff) without necessarily predetermining the route to that goal. Defining the “baskets” containing the products subject to tariff phase-out is also complex. Hiding behind this issue is the question of the “phase-out timetables” as well as a whole set of key factors in the tariff phase-out process. Some countries could want a minimum number of baskets to be phased out more or less immediately, or else over the medium or long term. Others could prefer to have more baskets, presumably for longer periods. Defining the number of baskets and their time frames clearly involves complex issues of political economy. The more baskets there are, the more complex it becomes to administer the tariff phase-out program. The existence of baskets also means it is necessary to take into account other tariff policy issues. Negotiators would have to keep in mind the placement of each specific finished product in terms of its components because specific baskets imply different levels of effective protection during the transition period. The time frame for reaching a 0% tariff level also has its implications. In principle, a linear phaseout brings certain order and measure to the phase-out process. However, various other phase-out options have also been used traditionally, for example, including grace periods for linear or 43 immediate elimination; constantly accelerating phase-out periods, etc. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages. The alternative approaches may alleviate certain political pressures but involve higher administrative costs. Grace periods, supposedly granted to facilitate the adjustments made by companies, have sometimes proven not be effective because companies, in fact, do not begin making adjustments until they actually begin to feel competitive pressure. As we have seen, there are many very complex issues to be dealt with when defining the number, time frame and speed of baskets or schedules for tariff phase-out. b) Rules of origin and accumulation After several years of applying different origin regimes at the bilateral or subregional levels, countries have developed their own ways of thinking about the question of determining origin for preferential purposes. The complications inherent to negotiations among 34 countries with such different production systems, many of them connected by other integration schemes, also present hurdles to negotiations of this kind. On an optimistic note, the hemisphere has ready access to raw materials and semi-processed and processed goods. This makes it easier to handle the typically “defensive” tone of negotiations on origin, especially if an accumulation clause is accepted (that is, the opportunity for a producer in one country to import its raw materials or components from other FTAA countries, and to export its product to any third country within the FTAA, benefiting from preferential tariff treatment). However, a simple accumulation clause faces a dilemma when there are different phase out scheduling because they could lead to triangular arrangements. On the other hand, a single program for each country, could undermine the possibility of differential tariff treatment aimed at recognizing certain sensitivities. The issue of origin also presents significant problems of substance and also of procedure. We will attempt give some examples of both. In terms of the substance of rules of origin, the main problem may be how to define the criteria for determining the origin of goods, especially when it is known that certain inputs may come from countries that are not part of the agreement. As mentioned earlier, origin regimes are traditionally based on one, two or three of the following criteria: 1) change in tariff classification; 2) use of regional content requirements or value-content tests; and 3) specific transformation requirements. Each approach has its advantages and disadvantages, both in negotiations and in its application, administration and verification. Without going deeply into details,29 we can affirm that there is a relative consensus that the first approach is the best (and the WTO recognizes this in the Annex to the Agreement on Rules of Origin), since it basically involves classifying inputs vis-à-vis the finished goods using the nomenclature of the Harmonized System. The value approach requires accounting work for each kind of good (often quite complex in the case of manufactured goods) to determine the percentage of value produced in the free trade area. This method has proven so difficult to administer and to verify that companies often prefer not to take advantage of preferential tariffs in order not to go through the complicated accounting required. Finally, the specific transformation approach can be useful for classifying very specific goods; however, it has the disadvantage that as production technologies change, the rules of origin become obsolete. It must be noted that some rules of origin in certain agreements use two or even three approaches alternatively or simultaneously. In any case, regardless of the approach used, negotiations on rules of origin are usually complex, slow and very detailed. Advances made in these negotiations often depend on the advances made in tariff negotiations and vice-versa. This tends to explain why both negotiations are carried out within the framework of the FTAA Market Access Group. 29 For a more detailed study, see Cornejo and Garay (2001). 44 There are also a considerable number of problems to be solved regarding origin procedures. Among these, is the question of whether the origin must be certified by authorities specifically empowered to that effect or whether producers or exporters can follow self-certification procedures. Generally, it is also necessary to determine procedures for verifying the origin of goods, the regime of responsibilities, the consequences of not facilitating verification procedures, the ability of the authorities to issue advance rulings in order to state in advance whether or not specific goods or prototypes meet the rules of origin, etc. Once again, in order to illustrate the trade offs faced in these negotiations, we can consider the issue of certifying origin. Both in NAFTA and in countries that have signed NAFTA-type agreements, a self-certification philosophy prevails. A certain amount of trust is put in the ability of the producer or exporter to certify the information on the origin of their goods. The aim is to simplify the certification process and the associated costs, while complementing this with a strict regime of responsibilities. Meanwhile, in the ALADI tradition followed in almost all South American countries, certification is issued by specific government bodies, or else non-governmental bodies authorized to that effect. The idea here is that an impartial and objective third party must intervene in the study and certification of origin, normally charging a fee for issuing a certificate. c) A suitable safeguards mechanism Another major problem in negotiations on market access is the design of a safeguard measures mechanism. This is an important issue since on one hand the aim is to integrate the hemisphere commercially, while on the other hand it is desirable to accomplish this without causing major destabilization that would bring about serious political problems. More desirable still would be to facilitate the adjustment of the productive sectors that will eventually be affected by free trade. Achieving these goals in a balanced way is difficult, especially given the great number of asymmetries in the FTAA. The main issues involved in the structure of the safeguard measures have to do with the nature of the measures, their period of application, investigation procedures, the essential criteria for implementing measures, the relationship of these measures to multilateral safeguard measures (including the terms for applying multilateral measures to other FTAA countries), and the possibility of emergency measures for specific sectors. Again, in order to illustrate the scope of the difficulties involved in the FTAA negotiations, the period of validity of safeguard measures will serve as an example. Examining the public bracketed text of the FTAA negotiating it is clear that there are various views on this issue. There are those positions which favor applying safeguard measures only during the transition period (that is, from the time the tariff on a specific product begins to be phased out until the moment this tariff reaches 0%), without the possibility of safeguard measures being applied once the tariff reaches 0%. Others position state that this period should be extended a few years more, while still others would like it to continue for the entire life of the FTAA. These are not small differences. IV.3.3. Other Structural Challenges There is another set of systemic issues, which will require considerable negotiation on the part of the countries involved if an agreement is to be reached. Some of these issues are of a technical nature; others have more economic or political overtones. a) Tariff Nomenclature An immediate technical problem this year (2002) is tariff nomenclature. In principle, access to FTAA markets will be negotiated by ministerial mandate, using the nomenclature of the 45 Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System, or Harmonized System (HS), which is common to all the countries up to the 6-digit level. However, a number of tariff subheadings of the HS were legally modified to reflect advances in trade, basically relating to greater environment protection and other considerations.30 These amendments became legally binding on January 1, 2002 for countries that signed the HS Convention. To date, few countries have implemented them effectively. In the past, when there have been changes in nomenclature of this kind, it took some countries several months or even years to make the necessary changes. For this reason, the launch of product-by-product negotiations after May 2002 will likely require countries to accelerate the adoption of the HS amendments. However, there are a number of institutional and internal technical challenges involving changes to hundreds of national tariff openings with more than six digits,31 changes in customs documents, public and private sector training, changes to all schedules associated with trade agreements that will be affected by the amendments (tariff elimination programs of other trade agreements, WTO bound tariff schedules, etc.). Also, if the FTAA databases on trade and tariffs use a specific nomenclature, (HS, 1996 version), their effective value as an essential negotiating tool will depend to a great extent on the availability of computerized conversion instruments or some kind of “correlation” tables linking the new nomenclature to the old one. Advances in tariff negotiations will depend on how some of these technical issues would be solved in a satisfactory way. b) Customs procedures The flow of goods will undoubtedly slow unless simple, transparent and efficient procedures are developed. The customs issue is quite complex in Latin America. Many customs systems in the region have been undergoing modernization programs for several years, though the results have often not been as positive as was originally hoped. There are many identifiable internal political and institutional difficulties associated with well-entrenched lobby groups, questionable standards of conduct in some countries, lack of the political leadership necessary to carry out reforms, insufficient coordination between trade and customs authorities, and so on. These may be some of the reasons why customs procedures are given only cursory treatment in the free trade agreements in force in the Americas - even second generation agreements. The existing agreements in the hemisphere have most commonly taken a modest “trade facilitation” approach when dealing with customs-related issues. It remains to be seen whether the FTAA will be able to act as a potent catalyst for customs reform in the region, or if on the contrary, this will continue at the rhythm dictated by the internal dynamics of each country. The FTAA may or may not be so ambitious as to bring about profound national customs reforms. It should, however, promote important changes. c) Special Regimes Another topic that will receive a great deal of attention is the treatment given to special regimes in the FTAA. Under this heading particular attention will likely be given to issues relating to some of the instruments used in the past to try to overcome the anti-export bias existing in Latin America and the Caribbean (although they were used in Canada and the United States as well). These include: inward processing mechanisms or maquilas, free trade zones, and tax and tariff exemptions that benefit certain imports, trans-border regimes, customs warehousing and others. These regimes are relevant because some of their components may distort or constitute loopholes 30 . See document Amending the Harmonized System, World Customs Organization, www.wcoomd.org, November 2001. 31 . The HS has slightly over 6000 six-digit products. However, countries generally open their classification at eight or even 10 digits, in which case a schedule would have more than 10,000 products. The 2002 version of the HS modifies about 400 subheadings. 46 in a tariff phase-out agreement, often granting excessive advantages to certain parties. Most of the free trade agreements in the hemisphere give quite restrictive treatment to the importation of products produced under this kind of systems. Therefore, if the most dynamic exporting sectors in some countries are those that operate under these regimes (in the most serious cases, up to 70% of national exports originate under these regimes), it is clear that this will be a very important issue in market access negotiations. An attenuating factor is that many regimes become unnecessary in a free trade area, precisely because intra-area imports of inputs and equipment are not subject to trade barriers. However, some inputs will be obtained outside the area, either directly or in more economic terms. Discussion of this issue has a multilateral dimension: certain aspects of these regimes with export subsidies were discussed at the recent WTO Ministerial Conference in Doha in November 2001. After a tough campaign by developing countries, there was an agreement to extend certain export incentives and subsidy programs for a few years. Some of these programs are essential parts of special regimes. IV.4. Balancing inter-group concessions As we noted above, the Negotiating Group on Market Access plays a prominent role in the FTAA. In many ways, it not only establishes the steps to be followed in certain sub-issues, but also acts as a central axis around which the discussions of many other FTAA groups rotate. As a result, the group’s ability to reach agreements may depend in part on countries having the impression that on balance they are achieving something positive in many other areas of negotiation outside the group. There will have to be a certain amount of confidence in the dispute settlement mechanism eventually negotiated in the FTAA. It is widely acknowledged that little can be accomplished through the negotiation of disciplines and tariff concessions if in the end there is no efficient, easilyaccessible, quick and low-cost system for dealing with the disputes arising among FTAA countries. Opportunities to break into a specific market are very often hampered by the existence of export subsidies that distort the market, generally to the detriment of the countries with the least ability to subsidize, and often with a clear competitive advantage in the production of specific products. As part of effective access to markets, countries want a guarantee that they will not have to face these distortions, which can bring down export production plans. Some countries will want to prepare internal strategies so that the disciplines governing intellectual property rights and competition policy complement tariff and non-tariff concessions. Effective access to markets very often depends, for example, on the absence of restrictive business practices (cartels, among others), or on a country’s ability to protect a trademark, a patent for a specific product, a denomination of origin or an industrial secret. The market access negotiators, when negotiating conditions for certain products, will certainly consider the conditions negotiated on many of these other issues in other FTAA negotiating groups. Ultimately, the FTAA negotiations are an attempt to obtain an overall balance between concessions that can be given and received, not only in terms of access to commodity markets. In fact, as we have seen, access to commodity markets is only one aspect of negotiations that include services, investment, and government procurement, among other issues. The main challenge for all the negotiators – not only those dealing with market access – will be to obtain an overall balance of concessions. It is clearly understood that each country has its own specific interests. For example, the countries with the greatest material resources, the highest technological level, and the greatest ability to add value to production, will try to obtain concessions in the area of high tech goods and services that require highly skilled labor or very large volumes of 47 capital. Less developed countries will generally try to obtain favorable access conditions for their export products and services, which generally include agricultural products, textiles, light manufactured goods, and services requiring unskilled labor. Given the complementarity among many of the economies of the hemisphere, there is considerable space in the FTAA for the exchange of concessions. However, there are also other sectors where competition is tough and protectionist tendencies are common. Very tough negotiations will be necessary to obtain concessions in these areas. This explains why the ministers have chosen to make these negotiations a “single undertaking”. In other words, nothing will be agreed until everything has been agreed. For this reason, FTAA negotiations will likely go on until a global balance has been reached between the concessions given and received. Market access is at the heart of the issue. IV.5. What interactions are there with the WTO? As we have mentioned repeatedly, neither the Market Access negotiations in particular, nor the FTAA negotiations in general, are self-contained. There are very often interactions among different trade negotiations, especially when these are going on simultaneously or sequentially. Right now there are countries in the FTAA that are simultaneously negotiating the FTAA hemispheric agreement, mutual trade agreements, agreements with other countries or regions outside the FTAA, and multilateral agreements. Harmonizing all these is perhaps one of the most complex challenges facing trade policy makers and designers of negotiation policy in these countries. In the case of market access negotiations, some issues involve very intense interactions, while other sub-issues do not. For example, the FTAA enjoys relative autonomy on tariff issues because it has set out to accomplish something that the WTO has not planned, at least in the foreseeable future: establishing a free trade zone. Therefore, despite certain WTO disciplines that must be respected (Article XXIV of the GATT of 1994 and its Understanding), relatively little coordination with the WTO is necessary. This does not mean, however, that there is no interaction at all. WTO issues are often present in market access negotiations. For some countries, there is very little or no difference between the applied tariff and the WTO bound tariff, meaning that they lack the buffer or maneuvering space available to many Latin American and Caribbean countries in their tariff negotiations. As a result, all negotiating positions in both forums must be carefully coordinated. As we mentioned earlier, the trade ministers reached an understanding in Doha, in November 2001, to the effect that certain export subsidies could possibly be extended for a few more years. This understanding among trade ministers in the WTO will most likely be taken into consideration during negotiations on these issues or on issues involving special regimes. The question of interactions is much clearer in other FTAA negotiating groups. Agriculture, for example, is perhaps the group where this dynamic is most critical. Some countries will probably be willing to advance on the hemispheric front to the extent that they see advances on the multilateral front. Meanwhile, others will think that certain issues must be discussed at the hemispheric level without waiting for the WTO, while still others are of exactly the opposite opinion, that is, that the issue must be resolved exclusively by the WTO. The most critical areas in this respect are perhaps those involving agricultural domestic support, although certain aspects of export subsidies will most likely be subject to the same discussion. There is a wide range of interactions available to deal with the issues of regionalism and multilateralism (Granados, 1999). If both forces are used to their full advantage, advances can be made toward the goals of both, while at the same time minimizing disruptions. 48 The recently launched Doha round of multilateral negotiations is ideal for observing the interplay of these interactions. Its broad agenda of negotiations means that countries will have to move with great care when negotiating issues that are also under negotiation in other forums, (which is the case with almost every issue!). There will be sequential strategies, cross conditioning, the use of a forum as a laboratory before passing the matter on to another forum, the complete transfer of a topic from one forum to another, and so on. It would be useful to carry out a case-by-case analysis in order to study these interactions in more detail. IV.6. The road ahead As is the case with Market Access, each step of the FTAA negotiations is subject to a very complex decision-making process. Market Access is only one group among many, though certainly one of the most complex. Hopefully, this very brief presentation of some of the difficult issues involved has made it a little clearer why the FTAA is a process designed to be negotiated over a 10-year period. The FTAA requires a very ambitious effort to integrate trade among 34 countries in the hemisphere with very different economic conditions. It entails an effort to unravel the spaghetti bowl of trade agreements in the hemisphere and, put simply, to rationalize and simplify the trade system in the hemisphere. It requires an effort to bring together very different commercial traditions, for example, the technical approaches of NAFTA-type agreements as compared to the approaches used in the ALADI framework. Finally, it requires that the countries must improve the coordination of their goals, positions and results in the multilateral and bilateral negotiations now underway. Meanwhile, there are many sensitive economic and political points within each country to be considered. The FTAA brings with it the promise of better conditions for taking advantage of the productive capacity of each country and better chances for growth and economic development. Ultimately, the FTAA can even aspire to be an important mechanism for eradicating poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean. The negotiating process has advanced a great deal and the cost of going back is rising continuously. The final goal is quite clear. To get there, however, there is still a lot of work to be done. 49 ANNEX 1 Methodology Used to Calculate Non-tariff Measures The methodology of NTM calculation follows UNCTAD-TRAINS methodology. The national tariff lines (usually 8 or 10 digits) are assigned a weight of 0 (no coverage), 50 (partial coverage of the tariff line), or 100 (full coverage of the tariff line). For example, if a country’s 6-digit tariff line for 010210 consists of 01021010 and 01021090, with the former having partial NTM coverage, and the latter having full coverage, then the incidence for 010210 will be (50+100)/2=75%. If there is only one measure covering a national tariff line, and the data denotes partial coverage of that tariff line, then that measure will be weighted as partial. If more than one measure applies to a national tariff line, however, then coverage is automatically considered to be complete. A simple average is then performed on the national tariff lines to find an incidence at the corresponding 6-digit tariff line. Finally, this measure at the 6-digit level is used as a baseline for further averaging into more aggregated measures (SITC). See Estevadeordal and Shearer (2002) for a detailed methodological discussion. Table A1. NTM Classification Unctad Code 2400 Description NTM Decreed Customs Valuation Core Quant Charges Govt Customs Tech X X 3110 Minimum Import Prices X X 3310 Variable Levies X X 3410 Antidumping Investigations X X 3420 Antidumping Duties X X 3430 Price Undertakings X X 3520 Countervailing Duties X X 5100 Import Licence X 5200 Import Monitoring X 6110 Licence with no specific ex-ante Criteria X X X 6141 Purchase of Local Goods X X X X X X 6160 6171 6172 6173 6174 6175 6176 6177 6178 6179 Licence Combined with or Replaced by Special Import Authorization Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Human Health) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Animal Health) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Plant Health) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Environment) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Wildlife) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Drug Abuse) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Human Safety) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (National Security) Prior Authorization for Sensitive Product Categories (Purposes n.e.s.) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 6211 Global Quotas: Unallocated X X X 6212 Global Quotas: Allocated to Exporting Countries X X X 6274 Quotas for Sensitive Product Categories (Environment) X X 6278 Quotas for Sensitive Product Categories (National Security) X X 6290 Quotas n.e.s. X X X 6310 Total Prohibition X X X 50 6340 6371 6372 Temporary Prohibition X Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Human Health) Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Animal Health) X X X X X X 6373 Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Plant Health) X X 6374 Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Environment) X X 6375 Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Wildlife) X X 6376 Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Drug Abuse) X X X X X X X X 6377 6378 6379 Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Human Safety) Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (National Security) Prohibition for Sensitive Product Categories (Purposes n.e.s.) 6900 Quantity Control Measures n.e.s. X 7110 State Trading Administration X 7120 7176 7178 7179 Sole Importing Agency Single Channel for Imports for Sensitive Product Categories (Drug Abuse) Single Channel for Imports for Sensitive Product Categories (National Security) Single Channel for Imports for Sensitive Product Categories (Purposes n.e.s.) X X X X X X X X X X 8100 Technical Regulations X X 8110 Product Characteristics Requirements X X 8111 Product Characteristics Requirements (Human Health) X X 8112 Product Characteristics Requirements (Animal Health) X X 8113 Product Characteristics Requirements (Plant Health) X X 8114 Product Characteristics Requirements (Environment) X X 8115 Product Characteristics Requirements (Wildlife) X X 8116 Product Characteristics Requirements (Drug Abuse) X X 8117 Product Characteristics Requirements (Human Safety) X X 8119 Product Characteristics Requirements (Purposes n.e.s.) X X 8120 Marking Requirements X X 8130 Lebelling Requirements X X 8140 Packaging Requirements X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 8151 8152 8153 8155 8156 8158 8159 8170 8172 8173 Testing, Inspection and Quarantine Requirements (Human Health) Testing, Inspection and Quarantine Requirements (Animal Health) Testing, Inspection and Quarantine Requirements (Plant Health) Testing, Inspection and Quarantine Requirements (Wildlife) Testing, Inspection and Quarantine Requirements (Drug Abuse) Testing, Inspection and Quarantine Requirements (Human Safety) Testing, Inspection and Quarantine Requirements (Purposes n.e.s.) Technical Measures for Senstive Product Categories Technical Measures for Senstive Product Categories (Animal Health) Technical Measures for Senstive Product Categories (Plant Health) 8180 Technical Measures for Political Reasons X 8200 Pre-Shipment Inspection X X 8300 Special Customs Formalities X X *The NTM and Core definitions replicate as closely as possible those outlined on page 102 ot "A User's Manual for TRAINS, Dos Version 4.0. The other five definitions are an ad-hoc approximation of Deardorff And Stern's categories. 51 X REFERENCES BHAGWATI, J. AND PANAGARIYA, A. The Economics of Preferential Trade Agreements. American Enterprise Institute. 1996. BLANDFORD. D. Are Disciplines Required on Domestic Support? Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, 2(1). November 2001. BURFISHER, M. (Ed.) The road ahead: agricultural policy reform in the WTO. Summary report. Washington: USDA-ERS. (USDA. Economic Report n.797) BURFISHER, M.E.; JONES, E.A. 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