III. The Business Cost Data As noted already, the business cost survey data that we analyse comes from four sources. The main one is the Economist Intelligence Unit, which administers a six-monthly survey in 54 major capitals and business centres. We use their survey results from mid-2002 and supplemented them with questions of our own. To provide comparable data on small economies, the Commonwealth Secretariat commissioned identical surveys to be conducted by regional organisations in various (mostly small) economies: Imani Capricorn in Africa, The Caribbean Community in the Caribbean and The Pacific Islands Forum in the Pacific. These surveys were completed between x and y 2002. A specimen survey is included as Annex 1 of this report. 1 The full sample of countries was defined in table 2.1 above, along with information about their survey organisation, their size (population and aggregate GDP), average income (GDP per capita) and their region in 2000. The data were received by the authors as Word or Excel files of the questionnaire with answers included. These were transcribed, including the large number of side comments – solicited and not – into Excel spreadsheets which were then examined carefully for inconsistencies and eccentricities. All survey data are subject to error and ours are no exception. Many of the survey questions seek averages or tendencies and so are subject to unconscious selectivity by respondents, while others, despite our best efforts, proved open to different interpretations. The surveys for large and small countries were implemented by different organisations and so may have been subject to different reporting biases: for example, in some cases requested ranges of data were collapsed into single averages, or vice versa. In addition, there are also simple random errors arising from, for example, the use of the wrong units or illegible replies, and the omission of various answers. None of this should suggest that the survey results are useless: indeed, we believe the data are very useful and should be made available to other researchers. However, it is important to recognise their inherent limitations and noisiness. Two illustrations of the latter are available. First, two African countries – Kenya and Zimbabwe – were involved in both the EIU and the Imani samples. Comparing the two sets of answers is salutary. For the questions requesting cardinal answers the mean absolute proportionate difference between the two sources was 29.4% for Kenya (45 variables) and 56.8% for Zimbabwe (44 variables). 2 Even excluding the four largest deviations, to allow for random misreporting, the figures are 21.2% and 44.3% respectively. Among the categorical questions the corresponding statistic was 38.3% for Kenya and 10.0% for Zimbabwe (10 variables 1 In several cases we were unable to formulate questions sufficiently precisely to make them worth including – for example, on insurance (impossible to devise an equivalent product) and the risk to sovereign debt (small countries are not rated publicly). In both cases, we suspect that small countries are at a disadvantge. 2 The statistic is the mean of z 1 − z 2 / 0.5 * ( z1 + z 2 ) where z1 and z2 are the two replies to the same question from the two sources. 1 each). 3 In the areas of dispute, we have used the EIU data, because we found them, on the whole, more plausible. The second area in which we have two estimates of the same phenomenon concerns air freight costs from 5 Caribbean countries. The mean absolute difference of these data, which are explained and reported in Annex IV.1 below, is 69.8%! In order to increase the value of the data we have corrected the most obvious of the errors – for example, re-scaling prices that have been reported in cents rather tha n dollars. We were surprised by the large number of eccentricities in the simple macro-economic data collected in the survey. These were frequently at variance with international sources and sometimes at variance with common sense. Ms Anna Yartseva attempted to clean and clarify these series and we believe that they are now reasonably representative. We became conscious, however, that having 92 sources of macro data (one per country) was likely to generate inconsistencies and so, in view of their centrality to our exercise, we decided to collect additional data for 2000 on population and GDP from international sources. In general, data for GDP (current million US dollars), GDP Power Purchasing Parity (current million US dollars) and Population were taken from the World Development Indicators 2002 database. Data refer to the year 2000. In those countries not covered by the WDI 2002 database (Anguilla, Cook Islands, Nauru, Niue, Taiwan and Tuvalu) or to fill missing values, data from the Survey were primarily used and complemented by the CIA Factbook 2002 (downloadable from the CIA website). ADB data were also used. We complemented our Population statistics with the survey values for Anguilla, Cook Islands, Nauru, Niue, Taiwan and Tuvalu, which probably correspond to the year 2001. GDP (US$) for Anguilla, Cook Islands, Niue and Taiwan were taken from the Survey (2000), while for Nauru and Tuvalu the source is ‘Business Information Guide to the Pacific’ published by the ADB, since there no data were given in the Survey. Finally, for Dominica, Marshall Islands and Micronesia data on GDP (PPP, US$) refer to the Survey, while for Anguilla, Cook Islands, Kiribati, Marshall, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Seychelles, Taiwan, Tonga and Tuvalu, where data from the Survey were unavailable, values were taken from the CIA Factbook 2002 (different years). Per capita values for GDP (US$) and GDP (PPP, US$) were derived from the aggregate variables described above. As a cross check, we compared these values with other sources. We ranked countries by GDP per capita and compared them with the World Bank’s income classification of countries. One doubt arises: Kiribati (US$475, lower middle income) has lower GDP per capita than, for example, Indonesia (US$728, low income). However, we have to bear in mind that the World Bank’s classification is based on the GNI Atlas Method. 3 If the categories chosen by the two surveys for categorical variables were i1 and i2 , we calculate the average of (i1 − i2 ) /( n − 1) , where n is the number of categories, so that (n-1) is the maximum difference. 2 Regarding GDP (PPP, US$), the values from the Survey differ substantially from those of the CIA Factbook 2002, in three cases US$428m – US$262m for Dominica US$62m – US$115m Marshall Islands US$214m – US$269m Micronesia, but we tend to believe that data from the Survey is more accurate. Furthermore, values for GDP per capita (PPP, US$) were compared with values from the WDI 2002 and CIA Factbook 2002. Minor inconsistencies were found, and two major differences: Niue (US$4251 – US$3600) and Cook Islands (US$6522 – US$5000). Finally, It is worth noting that, while GDP (PPP, US$) is normally higher than GDP (US$) for developing countries, this is not the case of some of our small countries (e.g. Anguilla, Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Seychelles). We take this as a substantive result, however. In fact, these freshly collected data from 2000 are the only macro-economic data that we use in this report, although the original series are included in the dataset. In all cases we record these changes and substitutions in notes appended to the Excel data spreadsheets. Some are also discussed briefly in the analytical sections of chapter IV. While wishing to respect the original sources, we believe that they increase the value of the dataset overall. Even after the first round of cleansing, the data still contain a number of obvious surprises and outliers. Where possible we have verified these from secondary sources, but have not over-ridden the reported values. We have, however, omitted them from our analysis in chapter IV. In addition, during the analysis a further set of outliers was identified in the form of absolutely large residuals from our estimated relationships. Since our aim is to test the relationship between the various business costs and size, we have in general eliminated these from the regressions in order to preserve the normality of the residuals and hence the legitimacy of the statistical inference. In all cases, however, we report the direction in which the observation is outlying and checking that the nature of the estimated relationship is not greatly changed by the elimination. If it is, we exercise great caution in drawing conclusions. Table 3.1 summarises some of the key data from the survey by calculating averages by region, by size class and by income group. Such summary statistics are not powerful tools for inference because, for example, regions and size are highly correlated as we saw in section II.4, but the table certainly suggests a prima face case to be answered. Small countries appear to have higher costs in many dimensions. The next chapter sets about answering this case in a systematic fashion. 3 ANNEX TO CHAPTER 3 REGION Pacific Caribbean SSA LA South Asia Rest Asia OECD Employment Constru Checkout Kitchen Bank ction operator Porter Clerk/Tell worker in large (hourly $) er (annual (hourly supermark $) "local $) ets banks" (hourly $) 1.47 1.45 1.33 4586 2.83 1.90 1.81 7494 0.72 0.68 0.63 3844 1.55 1.09 0.95 4536 0.31 0.32 0.28 1355 3.00 2.29 1.54 5594 8.52 6.08 6.19 18549 Bank Garage Payroll Qualified Branch Clerk/Tell Mechanic Clerk Teacher in Manager er (annual (annual $) (annual $) State (annual $) $) School "local "foreign (annual $) bank" banks" 4891 5022 5305 5254 20175 8082 7478 7145 9081 28293 4316 2977 2676 3644 16329 4535 3810 6112 5798 17665 1980 873 1274 1255 4337 6335 5353 6999 7633 18741 19610 19203 19079 21169 43711 Branch Manager (annual $) "foreign bank" General Unemploy Literacy Registere ment rate rate d Nurse (annual $) Manufact uring labour cost per hour 23076 35614 22572 22157 6809 20982 46554 5557 10420 3820 4392 989 6412 18370 17.90 11.33 32.64 11.50 6.40 5.71 6.61 88.68 90.39 70.03 91.50 54.50 89.11 97.15 1.80 2.75 2.06 2.86 0.47 2.81 13.22 POPULATION <0.4 million 0.4 –2.0 million 2-10 million 10-50 million > 50 million 2.37 1.00 8.00 3.01 5.07 1.89 0.86 6.12 2.13 3.50 1.75 0.93 5.47 2.19 3.51 6320 4124 16325 7668 14694 6915 4314 15562 7909 16060 6946 3604 15570 7177 13555 6840 3506 15813 7677 14309 7850 5164 17419 7836 16763 27921 13889 40629 21627 39399 35136 19232 40391 24322 44660 8515 5428 16479 6986 13211 11.29 19.0 14.1 16.7 8.04 93.1 82.8 86.8 85.3 105.7 2.61 0.77 13.6 6.35 12.1 GDP <0.4 billion 0.4-2.0 billion 2-10 billion 10 –100 billion > 100 billion 2.08 1.44 1.15 2.48 6.87 1.61 1.19 0.98 1.61 5.08 1.53 1.10 0.94 1.39 5.00 5343 5464 4557 5724 15260 5684 6075 4797 6107 16245 5806 4398 4313 5529 15395 5970 4556 3647 6446 15889 6819 5952 4468 5493 18227 22659 23357 17912 19885 36290 25040 34578 21450 24439 38990 7060 5818 5734 4701 15697 14.9 15.0 28.9 10.1 7.77 93.4 83.0 70.1 84.6 93.0 2.44 2.01 0.57 3.57 11.0 0.53 1.24 2.31 7.95 10.05 0.51 0.99 1.82 5.52 7.16 0.46 0.96 1.66 3.58 7.28 3007 4361 6564 11957 21271 3412 5221 6662 12050 22251 1776 4810 6440 11319 21835 1784 4960 7017 15078 21692 2045 5468 7445 16986 24786 11535 19701 23083 34065 49536 16246 23774 28270 36683 51782 2299 5212 7739 14168 21454 29.5 13.9 10.6 4.30 6.21 63.9 89.0 91.5 89.7 97.9 0.54 1.86 2.70 5.95 15.9 INCOME Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Non OECD High income OECD 4 Electricity Costs of Electricity (standard commercia l line) Connection fee (standard commercia l line) Water Costs of Water (standard commercia l rate) Connection fee (standard commercia l line) 0.21 0.16 0.37 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.15 73 259 499 112 691 110 154 3.56 3.41 1.92 0.62 0.16 0.45 1.33 POPULATION Electricity <0.4 million 0.19 0.4 –2.0 million 0.37 2-10 million 0.16 10-50 million 0.13 > 50 million 0.31 109 240 40 320 789 GDP <0.4 billion 0.4-2.0 billion 2-10 billion 10 –100 billion > 100 billion Electricity 0.19 0.17 0.30 0.28 0.09 132 152 143 578 207 INCOME Electricity Low income 0.24 Lower middle income 0.12 Upper middle income 0.31 High income Non OECD 0.09 High income OECD 0.09 510 193 185 109 111 REGION Pacific Caribbean SSA LA South Asia Rest Asia OECD Telephone Installation fee (stand. comm. line) Line rental fee (stand. comm. line) Rate per minute local calls (peak hour 61 338 143 153 553 114 564 61 66 105 73 195 85 118 9.3 20.2 6.4 12.7 3.7 7.4 20.0 3.86 0.85 1.94 1.05 1.75 83 386 612 177 417 Telephone 72 66 85 113 153 4.02 1.66 2.42 1.14 1.06 65 95 312 276 498 2.88 1.59 2.13 0.56 1.04 181 120 320 2.94 591 Water Water Water 5 0.09 0.06 0.12 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 Rate per minute of internation al calls to London during peak hour ($) 1.86 1.21 1.20 0.73 0.80 0.87 0.33 Rate per minute of internation al calls to Tokyo during peak hour ($) 1.85 1.80 1.44 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.68 Rate per minute of internation al calls to New York during peak hour ($) 1.71 1.06 1.39 0.60 0.89 0.78 0.31 15.6 8.2 15.4 11.6 13.0 0.08 0.12 0.05 0.06 0.06 1.74 1.17 0.35 0.80 0.95 1.92 1.76 0.64 0.97 1.16 1.54 1.30 0.38 0.85 0.85 Telephone 62 61 121 126 97 11.0 11.8 11.2 10.6 16.4 0.10 0.03 0.13 0.04 0.05 1.8 1.13 1.24 0.72 0.47 1.92 1.53 1.60 0.85 0.74 1.70 0.99 1.44 0.68 0.44 Telephone 114 72 95 55 115 5.84 8.77 16.2 8.56 21.2 0.08 0.05 0.09 0.02 0.04 1.20 1.25 1.11 0.50 0.29 1.28 1.42 1.49 0.51 0.62 1.32 1.12 1.08 0.43 0.26 Fuel Retail price of diesel (per litre) Retail price of petrol (per litre) 0.56 0.47 0.53 0.39 0.34 0.36 0.70 0.57 0.55 0.63 0.65 0.54 0.49 0.87 0.60 0.36 0.59 0.55 0.64 0.63 0.46 0.83 0.71 0.79 0.57 0.52 0.50 0.43 0.60 0.57 0.60 0.63 0.63 0.76 0.49 0.47 0.50 0.54 0.70 0.58 0.57 0.61 0.82 0.88 Fuel Fuel Fuel Taxes Corporate tax rate for residents Corporate tax rate for nonresident 21.71 35.35 31.58 31.09 36.93 27.83 32.44 29.30 35.35 32.28 32.28 41.25 27.83 32.44 9.06 10.50 14.61 15.63 12.50 7.50 12.92 14.22 13.50 8.25 4.50 6.09 POPULATION <0.4 million 0.4 –2.0 million 2-10 million 10-50 million > 50 million 25.7 33.0 28.3 31.7 44.2 29.7 33.5 30.0 32.4 45.5 8.55 12.8 13.4 15.1 7.43 3.50 11.7 10.9 8.61 8.92 18.8 21.0 22.5 26.6 89.4 GDP <0.4 billion 0.4-2.0 billion 2-10 billion 10 –100 billion > 100 billion 23.7 33.9 32.1 29.6 32.8 28.9 34.4 33.6 30.8 33.1 8.21 11.2 14.9 12.1 12.3 6.00 17.5 12.0 9.56 5.45 16.7 26.7 22.7 24.6 39.5 32.06 30.25 28.86 21.83 33.38 35.45 32.38 29.74 21.83 33.38 13.48 11.29 12.50 3.00 12.50 12.10 8.00 8.06 2.00 6.35 21.67 28.00 55.70 60.00 19.54 REGION Pacific Caribbean SSA LA South Asia Rest Asia OECD INCOME Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Non OECD High income OECD 6 Value (…) Min added tax (VAT) or sales tax rate. 6.00 (…) Max Export duty rate (duties from exports as percentag e of total governme nt tax revenues) 20.00 4.39 17.50 6.84 24.60 4.95 118.75 0.10 17.50 0.10 28.00 1.00 20.43 Bank Receipts Lending from rate import duties and taxes Import Duty: weighted average (nominal) tariff rate Import Duty: Unweighted average (nominal) tariff rate 14.36 26.08 24.85 11.19 30.20 12.90 4.83 14.57 15.95 21.98 10.71 28.93 10.14 3.80 53.17 48.87 38.31 8.36 20.40 11.66 2.44 12.12 13.33 21.14 28.49 14.97 8.68 10.72 2.81 5.29 8.66 12.38 9.37 4.83 6.56 3.88 2.94 4.06 0.45 20.2 26.8 8.62 12.0 20.9 11.9 18.1 7.35 11.3 20.3 55.0 45.9 12.2 17.9 17.4 11.5 15.5 13.1 16.6 21.0 3.54 6.28 4.41 7.92 12.5 4.92 5.12 1.15 0.25 16.9 25.3 25.5 13.3 7.84 11.2 17.7 23.7 12.6 6.37 54.6 48.5 38.2 11.1 6.86 11.8 18.3 18.8 15.4 13.3 3.33 7.21 6.97 7.24 7.73 24.45 15.14 17.01 8.80 3.93 23.95 13.55 9.55 5.20 2.87 30.81 37.91 27.41 2.20 2.05 20.7 17.3 16.5 6.03 6.87 8.28 9.02 6.98 2.00 3.19 4.06 3.38 1.05 Deposit Rate REGION Pacific Caribbean SSA LA South Asia Rest Asia OECD Transport Airfreight Airfreight Airfreight Airfreight Airfreight Airfreight Shipping cost to cost to cost to cost from cost from cost from cost to London Tokyo ($) New York London Tokyo ($) New York Rotterdam ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) 798 507 599 1419 1135 1018 2717 598 844 360 630 1082 406 2213 462 680 520 896 1822 1250 1617 696 966 579 781 1584 890 1502 387 362 430 667 996 769 1012 709 413 683 1119 420 745 892 446 686 527 485 1074 630 973 Shipping cost to Yokoham a ($) 2139 3388 1666 1470 804 597 1260 Shipping cost to New York ($) 3248 2977 2706 1581 2333 2742 2013 Shipping Shipping cost from cost from Rotterdam Yokoham ($) a ($) 3577 2619 2440 3707 1931 1822 1497 2038 1314 1281 668 481 965 1521 Shipping cost from New York ($) 3448 3187 3344 1520 2598 1976 2127 POPULATION <0.4 million 0.4 –2.0 million 2-10 million 10-50 million > 50 million 715 517 382 508 867 647 637 388 731 1018 538 368 378 527 943 938 1084 562 800 986 1075 1450 1030 1309 1636 679 819 596 944 1175 2673 1799 875 1407 1355 2928 1799 1061 1340 1368 3431 2584 1982 2240 3191 3105 1998 841 1631 990 3335 2280 1382 1702 1258 3510 3238 1789 2598 2658 GDP <0.4 billion 0.4-2.0 billion 2-10 billion 10 –100 billion > 100 billion 818 523 433 539 540 683 591 575 641 719 629 316 389 562 594 1206 724 996 618 695 1138 1352 1838 965 1099 874 544 1306 761 697 2941 1873 1689 1168 998 2769 2193 1905 1183 1084 3570 2687 2795 1951 2186 3450 2345 1881 1231 925 3084 2832 2286 1460 1321 3648 3514 3036 2096 2105 INCOME Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income Non OECD High in come OECD 518 708 530 566 497 647 633 654 338 758 569 521 453 543 588 980 874 681 2016 531 1647 1273 995 420 1097 1261 715 666 546 695 1695 1749 1725 801 960 1507 1762 2152 462 1197 2698 2205 2650 3217 2044 1869 2201 1720 690 1035 1617 2212 2465 412 1536 3321 2285 2689 2101 2153 7