Joint UNECE-UNCTAD Workshop:
Climate Change Impacts on International
Transport Networks
08 September 2010, Geneva
Impacts of Climate Change on Seaports:
Results of a Global Survey
Presentation by
Mr. Austin Becker
Stanford University
This expert paper is reproduced by the UNCTAD secretariat in the form and language in which it has been received.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of the United Nations.
Climate Change Impacts on Ports
07/21/2009
Why Ports?
y Critical infrastructure in local and global economy
Joint United Nations Economic Commission for Europe/
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Workshop
Climate Change Impacts on International Transport Networks
o
80% of world freight moves by ship
y Highly dependent on specific locations
o
Austin Becker, Stanford University
Deep water, protective harbors, multi-modal connections
y Difficult or impossible to relocate
y Highly vulnerable locations
Prof. Pam Matson, School of Earth Sciences
Prof. Martin Fischer, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Prof. Satoshi Inoue, Visiting Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
o
o
Often estuaries or river deltas the provide ecosystem services
Prone to flooding, storm surge, and SLR
www.portofcorpuschristi.com
2
Climate Change Scenarios
Impacts of Storms
IKE
$2.4 Billion Damage
to TX ports/waterways
Katrina
$100 Million in Damage to
3 MS Ports
y Sea levels to rise .6 – 2 meters by 2100☸
o The world is not a bathtub!
$1.7 Billion in damage
to Southern LA ports
y Doubling of Cat 4 and 5 storms*
Just eleven spills
released approximately
7 million gallons of oil
y Ocean storm tracks shifting
y Inland flooding
☸ Americas Climate Choices, 2010 *Bender et al. Science 2010; 327(5964):454. Photos from Alabama State Port Authority
3
4
Global Ports Survey Objectives
y
Climate Change Impacts –An issue for ports?
y
Climate Assumptions – What impacts do ports foresee?
y
Adaptation Strategies – What kinds of changes are ports
considering with respect to climate change impacts?
y
Categories - Are certain categories of ports or port directors
considering these issues more than others?
5
Coastal Zone 09
•Sampled IAPH/AAPA
•30 Questions
•Survey Monkey
•Distributed Summer 2009
•Designed/Pretested with
IAPH/AAPA
•93 Usable Responses
6
Climate Change Impacts on Ports
07/21/2009
Finding 1 – Issue relevance
Finding 2 – Sea Level Rise By 2100
69% felt EXPECTED SLR would not be a problem
Respondents are concerned, but feel uninformed
7
Finding 3 – Perceived Impacts
Top impacts climate change might have on your
port’s operations…
8
Finding 4 – Ports are building infrastructure
Design standards do not address climate change
Plans for expansion within the next 10 Years*
48% SLR
60% Storm related
38% Greening operations
*16% of these plan new storm protection
10
Finding 4: Port Categories and Adaptation Scores
Most ports have few climate policies in place
Finding 5 – Climate Change Adaptation
Policies
Scores
N = 88 Category (# of ports)
Max = 5
Min = 0
Mean = 1.2
Std. Dev = 1.3
9Addressed in port strategic plan
9Carries specific climate change insurance
Score
9Funded as a line item in the budget
9Has specific climate change planning document
9Holds staff meetings to discuss adaptation
9Part of design guidelines or standards
9Other policy noted
11
Coastal Zone 09
12
Climate Change Impacts on Ports
07/21/2009
Finding 5: Global Comparisons
Questions
How do different stakeholders in a port system characterize
impacts, objectives and alternatives with respect to stormhazard mitigation?
What strategies for reducing vulnerabilities could be
considered “optimal” by a port system?
Does the current system configuration allow storm impacts
to be reasonably addressed?
13
14
Risk… and Responsibility
Env.
Agencies
Coastal
Agency
NGOs
Insurers
Engineers
Insurers
Reinsurers
Port
Authoritie
s
Private
Firms
Engineers
The Survey Respondents
Meg Caldwell, Center for Ocean Solutions
Ben Schwegler, Walt Disney Imagineering
Mike Mastrandrea, IPCC/Woods Institute
Prof. Steve Schneider
Meredith Martino, AAPA
CEE 129/229 Class
Contact Austin Becker
austinb@stanford.edu
http://stanford.edu/~austinb
17
Coastal Zone 09
World
Bank
Army
Corps
Taxpayers
16
Next Steps: Comparative Case Study
Funding support from a McGee Grant from the
Stanford School of Earth Sciences and from a
Planning Grant from the Sustainable Built
Environment Initiative of the Woods Institute for
Environment at Stanford University
Coastal
Agency
City
Planners
Statewide
Planners
Taxpayers
Employees