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Brexit or Bremain: what future for the UK’s European diplomatic strategy?
Richard G. Whitman
A major public debate on the costs and benefits of the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union is presently under way. The outcome of the referendum on 23 June 2016 will be a pivotal moment in determining whether the EU
has a future as a component of the UK’s European diplomatic strategy or whether
there is a major recalibration of how the UK relates to Europe and more widely of
its role within international relations. Since accession to the European Economic
Community the UK has evolved an uncodified, multipronged European diplomatic strategy. This has involved the UK seeking to reinforce its approach of
shaping the security of the continent, preserving a leading diplomatic role for the
UK in managing the international relations of Europe, and to maximize British
trade and investment opportunities through a broadening and deepening of Europe
as an economically liberal part of the global political economy. Since accession the
UK’s European diplomatic strategy has also been to use membership of the EU
to facilitate the enhancement of its international influence, primarily as a vehicle
for leveraging and amplifying broader national foreign and security policy objectives. The strategy has been consistent irrespective of which party has formed the
government in the UK. Increasing domestic political difficulties with the process
of European integration have now directly impacted on this European strategy
with a referendum commitment. Whether a vote for a Brexit or a Bremain, the
UK will be confronted with challenges for its future European strategy.
Differentiation as a double-edged sword: member states’ practices and
Brexit
Thierry Chopin and Christian Lequesne
The reform of the eurozone and the concerns surrounding a potential ‘Brexit’
has given rise to a new debate about differentiation but also disintegration in
the European Union. This article provides a theoretical and analytical approach
to understanding how differentiation is related to the debate on distribution of
competences across various levels government. It finds that differentiation has
played an important role in the EU integration process since the 1950s, even
though the risk of fragmentation has always existed. Facing the benefits and costs
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of differentiation, the member states have developed their own practices. Three
ideosyncratic groups of member states can be identified in this regard: first, a
group of Anglo-Scandinavian member states which refuse centralization of the
EU; a Franco-German group which considers the integration through the promotion of a ‘core Europe’; and, third, a group of central and east European member
states who fear that differentiation would set their interests aside and relegate them
to second-class status within the EU. Finally, Brexit is not only about the status
of the UK in the EU, but casts deeper questions on how to clarify the nature of
relations between the eurozone and the EU as a whole.
Special relationships in flux: Brexit and the future of the US­–EU and
US–UK relationships
Tim Oliver and Michael John Williams
A British exit from the EU would add to growing strains on the United States’
relations with Britain and the rest of Europe, but by itself would not lead to a
breakdown in transatlantic relations due to the scale of shared ideas and interests,
institutional links, international pressures and commitments by individual leaders.
It would, however, add to pressures on the US that could change the direction of
the transatlantic relationship. From the perspective of Washington, Britain risks
becoming an awkward inbetweener, beholden more than ever before to a wider
transatlantic relationship where the US and EU are navigating the challenges of
an emerging multipolar world. The article outlines developments in the UK, EU,
Europe and the US in order to explain what Brexit could mean for the United
States’ approaches to transatlantic relations. By doing so the article moves beyond
a narrow view of Brexit and transatlantic relations that focuses on the future of
UK–US relations. In the conclusion we map out several ways in which US views
of the transatlantic relationship could be changed.
A spin of the wheel? Defence procurement and defence industries in the
Brexit debates
Matthew R. H. Uttley and Benedict Wilkinson
Whether a ‘Brexit’ would threaten the United Kingdom’s national security has
become a central theme in the run-up to the in/out referendum on EU membership. Although national security has been a central facet of both the ‘Remain’
and ‘Leave’ campaigns thus far, there has been little mention of the implications
of a Brexit for UK defence industries or defence procurement, let alone formal
debate or analysis. The article addresses this gap by analysing the potential implications of a Brexit for defence procurement and industries in the UK and the
EU member states. The first section analyses the policy context for a Brexit by
exploring existing levels of EU defence procurement integration in the UK’s and
Europe’s defence industries. The second section draws on Jozef Bátora’s ‘institutional logics’ framework to identify two pro-Brexit and two pro-Remain narratives, each employing differing assumptions on the relative benefits of national
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sovereignty and closer EU integration The final section analyses the way in which
these ‘logics’ or narratives will be deployed by their advocates in the run-up to
the UK’s EU referendum. The article concludes that the national security battleground in the 2016 referendum will be fought over competing narratives and
arguments, partly because there is a dearth of data and evidence concerning UK
and EU defence procurement and industries, which renders this crucial area of
national security vulnerable to the politics of spin.
Radicalization revisited: violence, politics and the skills of the body
Manni Crone
For more than a decade, ‘radicalization’ has been a keyword in our understanding
of terrorism. From the outset, radicalization was conceived of as an intellectual
process through which an individual would increasingly come under a spell of
extremist ideas. This ideological understanding of radicalization still prevails. In
a 2015 speech on extremism, British Prime Minister David Cameron, for instance,
claimed that the ‘root cause of the threat we face is the extremist ideology itself ’.
But the way we understand radicalization has specific consequences for the
way we manage and fight the scourge of terrorism. Considering recent events,
including the November 2015 Paris attacks, the present article sets out to reassess
the above-mentioned intellectualist understanding of radicalization and come up
with new suggestions as to how radicalization may be understood today. Initially,
the article suggests that ideology is not necessarily a precondition for violence, but
that a prior experience with violence is more often a precondition for engaging
an extremist ideology. Such experience with violence can be both domestic and
international, obtained in Europe or Syria and other conflict zones. In the second
part of the article it is argued that although radicalization is often conceived of as
an individual process, pathways towards terrorism are inherently social and political. Finally, the article argues that by stressing the importance of ideology and
ideological processes, concepts of radicalization have abstracted away from another
factor that is pivotal for understanding pathways towards terrorist violence: the
skills and capacities of the body.
Geopolitics versus geoeconomics: the case of Russia’s geostrategy and
its effects on the EU
Mikael Wigell and Antto Vihma
Geopolitics and geoeconomics are often addressed together, with the latter seen as a
sub-variant of the former. This article shows the usefulness of differentiating them
at a conceptual level. By juxtaposing traditional geopolitics and geoeconomics,
we suggest that they have remarkably different qualities and implications for their
targets, on both national and international levels. Importantly, these include the
formation of alliances, and whether they are driven by balancing, bandwagoning
or underbalancing dynamics. An analysis of Russia’s shifting geostrategy towards
Europe shows these differences in practice. Russian geoeconomics has long been
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successful as a ‘wedge strategy’, dividing the EU. As a result, the EU has underbalanced and its Russia policies have been incoherent. The observable tendencies
in 2014–15 towards a more coherent European approach can be explained by the
changing emphasis in Russia’s geostrategy. Russia’s turn to geopolitics works as a
centripetal force, causing a relative increase in EU unity. Centripetal tendencies
due to heightened threat perception can be observed in the economic sanctions,
emerging German leadership in EU foreign policy, and discussion on energy union.
The analysis calls for more attention to the way strategic choices—geopolitics versus
geoeconomics—affect the coherence of threatened states and alliance patterns.
When less was more: external assistance and the political settlement in
Somaliland
Sarah G. Phillips
The internationally unrecognized ‘Republic of Somaliland’ presents a case in
which the domestic drivers of peace and development may be examined when
aid and other forms of international intervention are not significant variables.
The relative autonomy of its peace process offers an alternative perspective on
post-conflict transitions to that offered in the majority of the literature, which
instead problematizes either the perverse outcomes or unintended consequences
of international interventions in conflict-affected areas. The purpose of this article
is not to establish the salience of Somaliland’s relative isolation in its ability to
achieve peace and relative political order, as this is already documented in the
literature. Rather, it explores the ways in which that isolation fostered mutual
dependence between powerful political and economic actors for their survival
and prosperity. It uses a political settlements framework to probe the implications
of this dependence for western statebuilding interventions in post-conflict situations. The findings present a challenge to orthodox assumptions about how states
transition out of conflict, particularly that: greater vertical inclusivity necessarily
strengthens a political settlement; effective Weberian institutions are a prerequisite of an enduring peace; and that external assistance is usually necessary to end
large-scale violence in developing states or to prevent a recurrence of the conflict.
Iran’s policy towards the Houthis in Yemen: a limited return on a modest
investment
Thomas Juneau
For years, mounting instability had led many to predict the imminent collapse
of Yemen. These forecasts became reality in 2014 as the country spiralled into
civil war. The conflict pits an alliance of the Houthis, a northern socio-political
movement that had been fighting the central government since 2004, alongside
troops loyal to a former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, against supporters and allies
of the government overthrown by the Houthis in early 2015. The war became
regionalized in March 2015 when a Saudi Arabia-led coalition of ten mostly Arab
states launched a campaign of air strikes against the Houthis. According to Saudi
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Arabia, the Houthis are an Iranian proxy; they therefore frame the war as an effort
to counter Iranian influence. This article will argue, however, that the Houthis are
not Iranian proxies; Tehran’s influence in Yemen is marginal. Iran’s support for the
Houthis has increased in recent years, but it remains low and is far from enough
to significantly impact the balance of internal forces in Yemen. Looking ahead, it
is unlikely that Iran will emerge as an important player in Yemeni affairs. Iran’s
interests in Yemen are limited, while the constraints on its ability to project power
in the country are unlikely to be lifted. Tehran saw with the rise of the Houthis
a low cost opportunity to gain some leverage in Yemen. It is unwilling, however,
to invest larger amounts of resources. There is, as a result, only limited potential
for Iran to further penetrate Yemen.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and the South Sudan question: reconsidering moderation
Yaniv Voller
This article examines the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) movement’s stand
on the South Sudan question. The aim here is to contribute to the ongoing
debate over the MB’s moderation. Throughout the civil war in Sudan, the MB
consistently objected to South Sudanese secession. Yet, while it had traditionally
framed its objection in religious terms, describing the South Sudanese struggle as a
Christian conspiracy against Islam, in the decade preceding South Sudan’s declaration of independence it moved to base its opposition on more practical grounds,
revolving around issues such the absence of democracy, stability and infrastructure
in South Sudan. This correlated with wider shifts in the MB. Since the 1990s, the
movement has claimed to have undergone a transformation, adopting a moderate,
pro-democratic stance. These statements persuaded many scholars that the MB
has come to represent political moderation in both its domestic and international
agenda. More recent works on the movement, however, have come to question
the MB’s moderation hypothesis, suggesting that even though the movement has
changed its discourse and some aspects of its activism, this could not be seen as
a linear process of moderation. This article uses the South Sudan case to further
support this critique from a foreign policy perspective. It demonstrates that even
though the MB changed its tactics and discourse, its goals remained unchanged—
even when the circumstances and the normative environment changed dramatically. Moreover, it shows that at times of crisis, the liberal discourse gave way to
the old-fashioned radical discourse of previous decades.
Trade and peace: the EU and Gaddafi’s final decade
Amir M. Kamel
This article examines the effectiveness of the EU’s use of trade to induce peace in
Libya during Gaddafi’s final ten years in power, between 2001 and 2011. During
this period, the EU implored and reiterated through rhetoric, policy and the
exchange of goods and services that trade was to be used as a tool to maintain
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peace and prevent conflict. Indeed, this peace-through-trade assumption is at the
heart of the EU, which was founded on the notion that economic interdependence
ameliorates potential causes of conflict. Initially, this article embeds its argument
in the theory concerned with the relationship between trade and peace, followed
by tracking the development of the EU’s policy. The main body of the article
then provides evidence which goes against the assumption that the trade–peace
relationship is positively correlated. Specifically, it is argued that the EU’s peacethrough-trade policy failed in this instance due to the fact that it failed to take into
account the Libyan context: namely, the Middle Eastern state’s ethnographic and
historical makeup; the weapons of mass-destruction programme and the subsequently induced sanctions; Gaddafi’s rule and attempts at reform; as well as the
2011 conflict. All these factors amalgamated to ongoing conflict in Libya during
Gaddafi’s final decade in power despite EU–Libyan trade continuing to take place
during this timeframe.
Review article
Bug splat: the art of the drone
Alex Danchev
This review article considers a variety of artworks, including stories, poems, plays,
photographs and films, to explore what ‘drone art’ or ‘drone aesthetics’ can tell
us about the politics and ethics of drone operations or drone warfare. The article
finds that the politics and the ethics are troublesome and troubling; and that the
art illuminates some important issues, through the focus on the drone pilot or
operator, and, more fundamentally, through the exposure of what has been called
an ‘empathy gap’. The attention paid to the drone operator is admirable, as far as it
goes. It has unquestionably served to demystify drone operations, and in a certain
sense to humanize drone warfare. Democracy is founded upon visibility. To see
the drone, it will be necessary to capture it, and contemplate it, from different
points of view.