GETTING THE WIND TO
MARKET: KEY TO SUCCESS
IDAHO WIND WORKING GROUP Boise, Idaho
September 22, 2010
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Ridgeline started in 2000
Developed 65 MW Wolverine Creek
Wind Farm E of Idaho Falls. Power
Purchase Agreement with
Pacificorp/Rocky Mountain Power
Built 125 GNII Summer 2010. 50% joint
venture with BP Wind. Power Purchase
Agreement with Southern California
Edison.
Rockland Wind Farm: 80 MW PURPA
project south of American Falls. Power
Purchase Agreement with Idaho Power
presently under consideration at Idaho
Public Utilities
200 MW project South of Laramie –
likely next project to see construction
Now Ridgeline is wholly owned by
Veolia Environmental
Headquartered in Seattle with Offices in
Boise, Portland, Idaho Falls, Spokane
and Albany, NY.
Pingree Middle School Field trip to
Wolverine Creek Wind Farm
2
Where is Wind Development Today?
20,000 MW is a
lot of Energy
•The Idaho Department of Water
Resources (Now OER), along with
engineers at the Idaho National
Laboratory and the Department of
Energy’s National Renewable Energy
Lab put Idaho’s potential at 20,000
MW.
•2,000 MW is easily developable
“low-hanging fruit.”
•5,000 MW is achievable within 10
years.
•Ancillary opportunity follows
development at that level, just ask
the mayor of Sweetwater, Texas.
US WIND DEVELOPMENT
State
Total U.S.
Texas
Iowa
California
Washington
Minnesota
Oregon
Illinois
New York
Colorado
North Dakota
Wyoming
Indiana
Oklahoma
Kansas
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Montana
West Virginia
South Dakota
Missouri
utah
Maine
Idaho
nebraska
Michigan
Yr End
2002
End 2003 End 2005 End 2006 End 2007 end 2008
end 2009 Rank
3,769
6,325
9,086
11,476
16,812
25,170
34,644
1,096
1,290
1,992
2,739
4,353
7,113
9,403 (1) 1
423
472
836
931
1,273
2,790
3,604 (2) 2
1,823
2,025
2,149
2,376
2,439
2,537
2,798 (3) 3
228
244
390
818
1,163
1,375
1,849 (5) 4
338
558
745
895
1,300
1,752
1,810 (4) 5
218
259
338
438
885
1,067
1,758 (7) 6
50
107
107
699
915
1,547 (9) 7
48
48
186
370
425
832
1,274 (10) 8
61
223
231
291
1,067
1,068
1,244 (6) 9
5
66
98
178
345
714
1,203 (11) 10
141
285
288
288
288
676
1,099 (13) 11
131
1,036 (23) 12
176
475
535
689
708
1,031 (12) 13
114
114
264
364
364
921
1,021 (8) 14
35
1
53
66
3
-
014
2
129
206
53
1
66
44
129
406
53
137
66
44
-
1
14
2
179
496
53
146
66
44
75
73
3
1
9
75
73
3
294
496
53
153
146
98
62
1
42
75
72
3
361
496
449
272
330
187
163
20
47
138
117
144
748
597
449
375
330
313
309
223
175
157
153
138
(16) 15
(14) 16
(15) 17
(18) 18
(17) 19
(19) 20
(20) 21
(26) 22
(25) 23
(22) 24
(24) 25
(21) 26
Wind
Rank
RPS
2 YES
10 YES
17 YES
24 YES
9 YES
23 YES
16 YES
15 YES
11 YES
1 YES
7
6
8 YES
3 YES
21 YES
12 YES
18 YES
5 YES
29 YES
4 YES
20 YES
35*
YES
19 YES
13
6
14 YES
Source: NREL, Sept 2010
WESTERN US WIND DEVELOPMENT
State
Yr
End End
2002 2003
California
1,823 2,025
End
2005
End
2006
End
2007
end
2008
end
2009
Rank
Wind
Rank RPS
2,149
2,376
2,439
2,537
2,798 (3) 3
17YES
Washington
228
244
390
818
1,163
1,375
1,849 (5) 4
24YES
Oregon
218
259
338
438
885
1,067
1,758 (7) 6
23YES
Colorado
North
Dakota
61
223
231
291
1,067
1,068
1,244 (6) 9
11YES
5
66
98
178
345
714
1,203 (11) 10
1YES
Wyoming
New
Mexico
141
285
288
288
288
676
1,099 (13) 11
7
1
206
406
496
496
496
597 (14) 16
12YES
1
137
146
153
272
375 (18) 18
5YES
44
44
44
98
187
313 (19) 20
4YES
Montana
South
Dakota
-
Utah
-
-
1
1
1
20
223 (26) 22
35* YES
Idaho
-
-
75
75
75
138
157 (22) 24
13
3
Source: NREL, Sept 2010
Idaho Wind Energy Growth
From 0.3 Megawatts to 544 Megawatts in Five Years
600
Energy (Megawatts)
544.2
500
263
400
300
281.2
Added
124.5
Existing
200
127.3
156.7
29.4
281.2
52
100
75.3
75.3
156.7
75.3
127.3
0.3
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year of First Commercial Operation
7
Renewable Energy Capital Investment
180
Investment (in $ Millions)
$1,600.00
$1,400.00
1,346.08
$1,200.00
$1,000.00
$800.00
Added
714.88
$600.00
Existing
375.76
$400.00
$200.00
304.8
180
180
$0.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8
2010 Dollars. Value: $2.4M/MW
What Are Our Energy Needs?
How Does Wind Fit Within the System?
HISTORICAL PROSPECTIVE
1945 – IPCo Peak Load exceeds 100 MW
1955 - Federal Power Commission okays
IPCo license for Brownlee, Oxbow
and Hells Canyon power plants.
1967 – IPCo exceeds 1,000 MW
1968 - Hells Canyon Complex
Completed: 1,166.5 Megawatts
HYDRO
Nameplate MW
American Falls.……….……92.34
Brownlee………………….….585.4
Cascade………….………………12.4
Hells Canyon……….………..391.5
Lower Salmon…….……………..60
Oxbow……………….…………….190
Shoshone Falls…..……….…..12.5
Thousand Springs………………8.8
Upper Malad……………………..8.3
MW
Bliss………………………………..75
C.J.Strike……………………..82.8
Clear Lake………………………2.5
Lower Malad………………..13.5
Milner…………………………..59.5
Oxbow…………………………..190
Swan Falls……………………..27.2
Twin Falls………..…………….52.9
Upper Salmon……………..…34.5
COAL
Boardman………….…………….64.2
North Valmy……………………283.5
Jim Bridger……………………...770
NATURAL GAS
Bennett Mountain………....172.8
Evander Andrews……….…270.9
DIESEL
Salmon……………………………………5
Idaho Total Electricity Use
6000
5,571
675
5000
4000
3,133
3000
2000
1000
3,299
475
Rocky Moutain
Idaho Power
388
2,018
Avista
1,745
1,030
1,763
1,082
600
0
Minimum
Average
Peak
Source: Avista; IPCo; Rocky Mountain. 2009 #s.
The Bonneville Power Administration
Transmission System: Operating voltage
Circuit miles
1,000 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .264
500 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,734
345 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .570
287 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .227
230 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,348
161 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119
138 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50
115 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,557
below 115 kV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
Total . . . . . . . . . . 15,238 Miles
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Federal Hydro Projects By Name, River, State,
In-service Date, Nameplate Rating
Albeni Falls, Pend Oreille, ID 1955 43 MW Anderson Ranch, Boise, ID 1950 40 MW
Big Cliff, Santiam, OR 1953 18 MW
Black Canyon, Payette, ID 1925 10 MW
Boise River Diversion, Boise, ID 1912 3 MW Bonneville, Columbia, OR/WA 1938 1,077 MW
Chandler, Yakima, WA 1956 12 MW
Chief Joseph, Columbia, WA 1958 2,458 MW
Cougar, McKenzie, OR 1963 25 MW
Detroit, Santiam, OR 1953 100 MW
Dexter, Willamette, OR 1954 15 MW
Dworshak, Clearwater, ID 1973 400 MW
Foster,Santiam, OR 1967 20 MW
Grand Coulee, Columbia, WA 1942 6,765MW
Green Peter, Santiam, OR 1967 80 MW
Green Springs, Emigrant Crk, OR 1960 16 MW
Hills Creek Willamette, OR 1962 30 MW
Hungry Horse, Flathead, MT 1953 428 MW
Ice Harbor Snake, WA 1962 603 MW
John Day, Columbia, OR/WA 1971 2,160 MW
Libby Kootenai, MT 1975 525 MW
Little Goose, Snake, WA 1970 810 MW
Lookout Point, Willamette, OR 1953 120 MW Lost Creek, Rogue, OR 1977 49 MW
Lower Granite, Snake, WA 1975 810 MW
Lower Monumental, Snake, WA 1969 810 MW
McNary, Columbia, OR/WA 1952 980 MW
Minidoka, Snake, ID 1909 28 MW
Palisades, Snake, ID 1958 176 MW
Roza, Yakima, WA 1958 11 MW
The Dalles, Columbia, OR/WA 1957 1,808 MW
Total (31 dams) 20,430 MW
All-time 60-min. total peak generation
record (June 2002) . . . . . . .18,139 MW
Owned and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (21
dams, 12,940 MW)
Owned and operated by the Bureau of Reclamation (10 dams,
7,490 MW).
BPA: Wind Saturated?
What Did the Wind Industry Choose?
2010: 3,000 MW Wind
2013: 6,000 MW Wind
Spring Night load: <4,000 MW
The Market: California
California imports more electricity than any other State.
In-State Generation Capacity: 16,861 thousand MW
(4.5% of US total Generation)
Imports: 7,925 thousand MW (2.2% of US Total Gen.)
California Energy Commission (CEC) data for 2008:
• in-state generation of 208.5 billion kWh
• net imports of 98 billion kWh
• 306.5 TWh TOTAL,
• 14.44% of this nuclear,
• 18.21% coal,
• 45.74% natural gas,
• 11.0% large hydro and
• 10.61% other renewables.
• apart from some impressive wind farms, hardly
any generating capacity had been built in
California in the 20 years to 2000 despite almost
2% annual growth in demand.
• The majority of California's generating plants are
older than 35 years (the two largest gas-fired
plants were 45 years old),.
But what are CA REC policies today? A week from Now? A Year? Bundled? Tradable?
THE TRANSMISSION CUNUNDRUM
Merchant Transmission: Dead or Alive
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Frontier – CA, NV, UT and WY Governors (dead)
TransWest – Arizona Public Service (on hold or dead)
Northern Lights - Trans-Canada (on hold)
SWIP (Southwest Intertie Project) – LS Power
o Overland Transmission Project Jade Energy (E
Wyoming to Midpoint,ID)
o Great Basin Tx LLC (Midpoint, ID to Las Vegas, NV)
o Wyoming Colorado Intertie LS Power (E WY to N
CO)
SHOW ME THE MONEY!
Pending Proposed Transmission New Construction/Upgrades
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Boardman-Hemingway 500 kV (B2H)
Canada – Northern California Transmission Project – Avista Corporation 500/230 kV AC
Canada/Pacific Northwest-Northern California
Central California Clean Energy Transmission Project (C3ETP)
Devers-Palo Verde No.2 500 kV Transmission Line Project
Ely Energy Center Project (Robinson Summit to Harry Allen 500 kV line)
Gateway Central Project – Mona -Oquirrh 500 kV transmission line
Gateway Central Project – Populus-Terminal 345 kV double circuit transmission line
Gateway Central Project, Sigurd - Red Butte - Crystal 345 kV Line
Gateway South Project – Segment #1 (Mona-Crystal 500 kV)
Gateway South Project – Segment #2 (Aeolus-Mona 2-500 kV)
Gateway West Transmission Project Segment 1A – Windstar to Jim Bridger 500 kV
Gateway West Segment 1B – Jim Bridger to SE Idaho (Bridger-Populus double circuit 500 kV)
Gateway West Segment 1C – Southeast Idaho – South Central Idaho (Populus – Midpoint 500 kV)
Gateway West Segment E – South to Southwest Idaho (Midpoint – Hemingway 500 kV)
Green Path North Project (also known as Indian Hills – Upland Project)
Harcuvar Transmission Project
Hemingway-Captain Jack 500 kV Transmission Line
High Plains Express Transmission Project
Hughes Transmission Project: (a) Juan de Fuca HVDC Sea Cable; (b) Juan de Fuca II HVDC Cable
Lake Elsinore Advanced Pumped Storage (Talega-Escondido / Valley-Serrano 500 kV line)
Montana Alberta Tie Project
Mountain States Transmission Intertie (MISTI) (Townsend-Midpoint 500 kV)
Navajo Transmission Project Segment #1(Four Corners - Marketplace 500 kV
Pending Proposed Transmission New Construction/Upgrades
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Northern Lights Celilo HVDC Project
Northern Lights Zephyr (WY-NV) HVDC Project
Palo Verde Hub-North Gila 500kV #2 line
Path 27 Upgrade ( Intermountain DC Line)
Path 3 – Northwest to British Columbia – South to North Rating Increase
Path 54 Upgrades
Path 55 – Brownlee East Increase to 1915 MW
San Francisco Bay Area Bulk Transmission Reinforcement
Southern Crossing
Southern Navajo (Path 51) Upgrade Project
Southwest Washington / Northwest Oregon 500 kV Reinforcement
Sunrise Power Link
SunZia Southwest Transmission Project
SWIP North Transmission Project (Midpoint – Thirtymile 500 kV Line
SWIP South Transmission Project (Robinson Summit – Las Vegas area 500 kV)
TOT3 300 MW Upgrade Project
TOT3 Upgrade Project – Miracle Mile – Ault Upgrade
TransWest Express Project
Triton HVDC Sea Cable Project
Walla Walla to McNary 230 kV
West Coast Cable Project
West of McNary Generation Integration Project (WOMGIP)
Wyodak South 230 kV line
Wyoming-Colorado Intertie Project
Present Transmission Picture
Orange: >500 kV DC
Red: 500kV
Green: 345-360 kV
Blue: 230-287 kV:
What’s the problem: lines are all over the place.
Path Constraints
IS THERE A SAFE PATH FORWARD?
Solutions
Is this actually a presidential election map?
IF IT WORKS THERE, WHY NOT HERE?
• RTOs (Regional Transmission Organizations)
• ISOs (Independent System Operators)
– Cal ISO is a 501(c)(3)
– ERCOT moves wind to market at negative pricing
– Even New York has a transmission ISO
• They work all around the country, can they work
here?
• Grid West, RTO West 8 years of effort but couldn’t
reach consensus on governance & structure
IS THERE A WAY FORWARD?
• Merchant TX is risky:
high cost of capital; no
PUC ability to rate base
• Regional efforts remain
too complex
• Small fixes:
– IPCo/PAC; IPCo/SierraNevada; IPCo or
PAC/Northwestern
Energy (Montana)
– Bridge Gaps
HOW SHOULD WE FINANCE IT?
• In 1955, 10 years after it broke 100 MW of load for the first time,
IPCo began the process of building nearly 1,200 MW.
• A gamble at the time proved a brilliant move.
• We still benefit today
• Apply this to transmission.
Grab the low hanging fruit: bridge constraints, build interties
Partner with neighboring IOUs
Share the cost
Build what’s needed
Build an additional 50% (or 20 years) on top as “merchant-light”
Sell excess capacity to wind developers until the IOU needs it to meet its
own load
– When ratepayers need it, it will already be there
– Ratebase the whole thing, but share “profits” from overbuild
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What are the Goals?
• Alleviate wind saturation
• Develop export market
access
• Sustained rural economic
development
• Offset coal generation
• De Facto balancing area
increase system stability
• De Facto RTO/ISO
• Watch the money roll in
Rich Rayhill, Vice President
Ridgeline Energy, LLC
720 W Idaho #39
Boise, ID 83702
(208) 841-5037
rrayhill@rl-en.com