Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay State-of-the-Science Review and Recommendations

Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay State-of-the-Science Review and Recommendations A Report from the Chesapeake Bay Program Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) Coordinating STAC members: Christopher R. Pyke1 and Raymond Najjar2 Contributing authors: Mary Beth Adams3, Denise Breitburg4, Carl Hershner5, Robert Howarth6, Michael Kemp7, Margaret Mulholland8, Michael Paolisso9, David Secor10, Kevin Sellner11, Denice Wardrop12, and Robert Wood13 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay 1 1. CTG Energetics, Inc., 101 N. Columbus St., Suite 401, Alexandria, VA 22314, Tel: 202-731-0801, e-mail: cpke@ctgenergetics.com 2. Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802-5013, Tel: 814-863-1586, e-mail: najjar@meteo.psu.edu 3. USDA Forest Service, Timber and Watershed Laboratory, Parsons, WV 26287 4. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, P.O. Box 28, Edgewater, MD 21037 5. Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Rt. 1208, Gr/eate Road, P.O. Box 1346, Gloucester Point, VA 23062 6. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, E311 Corson Hall, Ithaca NY 14853 7. University of Maryland, Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD 21613 8. Department of Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Science, Old Dominion University, 4600 Elkhorn Avenue, Norfolk, VA 23529-0276 9. Department of Anthropology, 1111 Woods Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-7415 10. University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, 1 William St., Solomons, MD 20688 11. Chesapeake Research Consortium, 645 Contees Wharf Road, P.O. Box 28, Edgewater, MD 21037 12. Penn State Cooperative Wetlands Center, 216 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802 13. Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, 904 South Morris Street, Oxford, MD 21654-1323 2 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay State-of-the-Science-Review and Recommendations An Independent Report by WKH6FLHQWLÀFDQG7HFKQLFDO$GYLVRU\&RPPLWWHH Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay 1 %FSYXXLI7GMIRXMßGERH8IGLRMGEP Advisory Committee 7KH6FLHQWLÀFDQG7HFKQLFDO$GYLVRU\&RPPLWWHH67$&SURYLGHVVFLHQWLÀFDQG WHFKQLFDOJXLGDQFHWRWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\3URJUDP&%3RQPHDVXUHVWRUHVWRUHDQG SURWHFWWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\$VDQDGYLVRU\FRPPLWWHH67$&UHSRUWVSHULRGLFDOO\ WRWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ&RPPLWWHHDQGDQQXDOO\WRWKH([HFXWLYH&RXQFLO6LQFHLWV FUHDWLRQLQ'HFHPEHU67$&KDVZRUNHGWRHQKDQFHVFLHQWLÀFFRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQGRXWUHDFKWKURXJKRXWWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\ZDWHUVKHGDQGEH\RQG67$&SURYLGHV VFLHQWLÀFDQGWHFKQLFDODGYLFHLQYDULRXVZD\VLQFOXGLQJWHFKQLFDOUHSRUWVDQG SDSHUVGLVFXVVLRQJURXSVDVVLVWDQFHLQRUJDQL]LQJPHULWUHYLHZVRI&%3 SURJUDPVDQGSURMHFWVWHFKQLFDOFRQIHUHQFHVDQGZRUNVKRSVDQGVHUYLFH E\67$&PHPEHUVRQ&%3VXEFRPPLWWHHVDQGZRUNJURXSV,QDGGLWLRQ67$& KDVPHFKDQLVPVLQSODFHWKDWDOORZLWWRKROGPHHWLQJVZRUNVKRSVDQGUHYLHZV LQUDSLGUHVSRQVHWR&%3VXEFRPPLWWHHDQGZRUNJURXSUHTXHVWVIRUVFLHQWLÀFDQG WHFKQLFDOLQSXW7KLVFDSDELOLW\DOORZV67$&WRSURYLGHWKH&%3VXEFRPPLWWHHVDQG ZRUNJURXSVZLWKWKHQHFHVVDU\LQIRUPDWLRQDQGVXSSRUWDVVSHFLÀFLVVXHVDULVHLQ ZRUNLQJWRZDUGVWKHJRDOVRXWOLQHGLQWKHChesapeake 2000DJUHHPHQW67$&DOVR DFWVSURDFWLYHO\WREULQJWKHPRVWUHFHQWVFLHQWLÀFLQIRUPDWLRQWRWKH%D\3URJUDP DQGLWVSDUWQHUV)RUDGGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQSOHDVHYLVLWWKH67$&ZHEVLWHDWwww. chesapeake.org/stac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over photo courtesy of NOAA Cover design and report design by Nina Fisher Printing by Heritage Printing and Graphics, Leonardtown, Md., www.heritageprinting.com &KHVDSHDNH5HVHDUFK&RQVRUWLXP,QF &RQWHHV:KDUI5RDG (GJHZDWHU0' 7HO )D[ www.chesapeake.org 2 Printed on recycled paper Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay 8EFPISJ'SRXIRXW Executive Summary ...........................................................................................................................................................5 Section I: Knowledge Gaps and Research Priorities .....................................................................................7 1. Introduction .....................................................................................................................................................................7 2. Climate Drivers of Change in the Chesapeake Bay.......................................................................................7 3. Monitoring Change .......................................................................................................................................................8 4. Impacts on Chesapeake Bay Program Restoration Strategies ...............................................................8 5. Adaptive Responses to Changing Climatic Conditions ...............................................................................9 6. Next Steps ..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 6.1 Understanding the consequences of climate change .............................................................................................. 10 6.2 Understanding ecosystem processes ....................................................................................................................... 10 6.3 Research coordination and leadership ..................................................................................................................... 10 6.4 Climate Change Action Plan ..................................................................................................................................... 11 Section II: Research Review ...................................................................................................................................... 13 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 13 2. Climatic and Hydrologic Processes Affecting the Bay.............................................................................. 13 2.1 Atmospheric composition......................................................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Water temperature ................................................................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Precipitation ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 7XVIEQ¾S[ ................................................................................................................................................................. 18 2.5 Sea level ...................................................................................................................................................................... 20 2.6 Storms......................................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.7 Climatic and Hydrologic Processes Summary ......................................................................................................... 22 3. Fluxes of Nutrients and Sediment from the Watershed......................................................................... 22 3.1 Non-point pollution by sediment and phosphorus ................................................................................................. 22 3.2 Non-point pollution by nitrogen .............................................................................................................................. 23 3.3 Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen ........................................................................................................................ 25 3.4 Freshwater wetlands.................................................................................................................................................. 26 3.5 Point source pollution ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay 3 3.6 Summary of watershed biogeochemistry ................................................................................................................... 27 4. Bay Physical Response ............................................................................................................................................. 28 4.1 Circulation .................................................................................................................................................................. 28 4.2 Salinity ......................................................................................................................................................................... 28 4.3 Suspended sediment .................................................................................................................................................. 28 4.4 Bay physics summary ................................................................................................................................................. 29 5. Living Resources .......................................................................................................................................................... 29 5.1 Food webs, plankton, and biogeochemical processes ............................................................................................. 29 5.1.1 Nutrient cycling and plankton productivity ........................................................................................................... 30 5.1.2 CO2 effects on phytoplankton............................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.3 Temperature effects on plankton.......................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.4 Harmful algal blooms and pathogens ................................................................................................................... 32 5.1.5 Dissolved oxygen .................................................................................................................................................. 33 5.2 Submerged aquatic vegetation .................................................................................................................................. 34 5.3 Estuarine wetlands ..................................................................................................................................................... 35 *MWLERHWLIPP½WL ........................................................................................................................................................ 36 8IQTIVEXYVIMQTEGXWSR½WLERHWLIPP½WL ........................................................................................................... 37 7EPMRMX]MQTEGXWSR½WLERHWLIPP½WL .................................................................................................................... 39 4PEROXSRTVSHYGXMSRMQTEGXWSR½WLERHWLIPP½WL ................................................................................................ 39 (MWWSPZIHS\]KIRMQTEGXWSR½WLERHWLIPP½WL ..................................................................................................... 40 3XLIVMQTEGXWSR½WLERHWLIPP½WL ...................................................................................................................... 40 5.5 Living resources summary......................................................................................................................................... 40 6. Cultural, Social, and Economic Research......................................................................................................... 41 6.1 Status of research ...................................................................................................................................................... 41 6.2 Anthropological perspectives ................................................................................................................................... 41 6.3 Natural resource economics .................................................................................................................................... 43 6.4 Adaptive responses .................................................................................................................................................... 43 7. Summary......................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................................ 46 References ............................................................................................................................................................................. 47 Coordinating Authors .................................................................................................................................................... 59 4 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Executive Summary 7KH86(3$·V&KHVDSHDNH%D\3URJUDPFKDUJHGWKH 6FLHQWLÀFDQG7HFKQLFDO$GYLVRU\&RPPLWWHH67$&ZLWK UHYLHZLQJWKHFXUUHQWXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH LPSDFWVRQWKHWLGDO&KHVDSHDNH%D\DQGLGHQWLI\LQJ 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WHPSHUDWXUHDQGFRQFXUUHQWVWUHVVRUVVXFKDVODQGFRYHU FKDQJHZRXOGOLNHO\H[DFHUEDWHWKHVHLPSDFWVDeveloping a more comprehensive and sophisticated understanding 7 Critical Climatic Drivers of Change Question: How will climate change alter regional precipitation patterns and what are the most important aspects of precipitation change for ecosystem and watershed processess? Important Questions: ;LEXMWXLIVIPEXMSRWLMTFIX[IIRVMZIV¾S[ and regional air temperature? How might this relationship change under future climatic conditions? • Can existing watershed models (e.g., the CBP Phase V model) accurately simulate runoff and river ¾S[VIKMQIWYRHIVTPEYWMFPIJYXYVIGSQFMREXMSRW of precipitation and temperature? • How will climate-driven changes interact with concurrent changes, such as land use/land cover shifts, invasive species, and social and economic processes, to alter the physical environment (e.g., the timing and magnitude of stormwater runoff)? of the possible changes in regional precipitation and the implications of potentially unprecedented combinations of temperature and precipitation is essential. –3– Monitoring Change (QYLURQPHQWDOPRQLWRULQJUHPDLQVDQHVVHQWLDOFRPSRQHQW RIWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\3URJUDP&RPSXWHUPRGHOVDQG VLPXODWLRQVKHOSGHYHORSHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\DQG UHJXODWLRQEXWWKHXOWLPDWHVXFFHVVRUIDLOXUHRIWKH SURJUDPUHVWVRQUHDOZRUOGFRQGLWLRQV&OLPDWHFKDQJH FRPSRXQGVWKHDOUHDG\FULWLFDOQHHGIRUPRQLWRULQJEXW DOVRFUHDWHVQHZFKDOOHQJHV7KHGHVLJQRI&KHVDSHDNH %D\PRQLWRULQJV\VWHPVPXVWDOORZGHWHFWLRQRIORQJWHUP WUHQGVand DOORZPDQDJHUVWRGLIIHUHQWLDWHFOLPDWHGULYHQ FKDQJHVIURPWKRVHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHVWRUDWLRQDFWLRQV RURWKHUVRXUFHVRIGHJUDGDWLRQ7KHVHGLVWLQFWLRQVDUH HVVHQWLDOIRUXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHHIÀFDF\RIPDQDJHPHQW HIIRUWVDQGGHWHUPLQLQJWKHFDXVHVRIFKDQJHLQHFRV\VWHP KHDOWKDQGZDWHUTXDOLW\The Bay Program must evaluate the consequences of climate change for existing monitoring systems and ensure that sampling designs provide adequate statistical power to detect trends and differentiate sources of improvement or degradation. 8 –4– Impacts on Chesapeake Bay Program Restoration Strategies 8QGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHSK\VLFDOGULYHUVRIFKDQJHDQG FRQVLGHUDWLRQIRUWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIHQYLURQPHQWDO PRQLWRULQJXOWLPDWHO\FUHDWHDVROLGIRXQGDWLRQIRUDVNLQJ WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWTXHVWLRQIDFLQJWKH%D\3URJUDPWhat are the implications of climate change for the Bay Program’s efforts to restore water quality and living resources? 7KUHHRIWKH%D\3URJUDP·VPRVWLPSRUWDQWDSSURDFKHVIRU &KHVDSHDNHUHVWRUDWLRQDUH %D\ZLGHZDWHUTXDOLW\UHJXODWLRQHJ7RWDO0D[LPXP 'DLO\/RDGV³70'/V 6WDWHWULEXWDU\VWUDWHJLHVWRDFKLHYHWKHJRDOVRIWKH Chesapeake 2000DJUHHPHQWDQG $FWLYLWLHVWRSURWHFWDQGUHVWRUHOLYLQJUHVRXUFHVHJ VXEPHUJHGDTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQ6$9R\VWHUVDQG ÀVKHULHV 7KHVHVWUDWHJLHVDUHFHQWUDOWRWKHVXFFHVVRIWKH%D\ 3URJUDPDQGDOODUHVHQVLWLYHWRFOLPDWH&OLPDWHFKDQJH WKHUHIRUHLVOLNHO\WRXQGHUPLQHNH\DVVXPSWLRQVLQWKH FXUUHQWDSSURDFKHVXVHGWRGHYHORSDQGGHSOR\WKHVH VWUDWHJLHV)RUH[DPSOHFDOFXODWLRQVIRUHVWLPDWLQJ Critical Monitoring Question: How should a Baywide monitoring system be designed, deployed, and operated to detect and differentiate climate-driven changes from other sources of change? Important Questions: • Can the existing monitoring system provide the statistical power needed to detect trends reliably in the climatic variables associated with key management decisions, including peak water temperatures, summer wind regimes, as well as the frequency and severity of droughts? • Which environmental measures provide the most sensitive indicators of climate change? • Which environmental indicators are relatively insensitive to climate change? • How can information about the relative sensitivity of physical, chemical, and biological indicators be conveyed to policymakers, managers, and other stakeholders to inform resource management? Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay 70'/VDUHEDVHGRQDFDUHIXOO\VHOHFWHGVXEVHWRIKLVWRULF PHWHRURORJLFDOREVHUYDWLRQV7UHQGVLQYDULDEOHVVXFKDV WHPSHUDWXUHRUSUHFLSLWDWLRQYLRODWHDVVXPSWLRQVXVHGLQ WKHVHFDOFXODWLRQVDQGWKHUHIRUHXQGHUPLQHFRQÀGHQFHLQ WKHUHVXOWVThe Bay Program must develop methods to calculate TMDLs that explicitly incorporate information about changing climatic conditions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he Bay Program and its partners must assess WKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHIRUWKHHIÀFDF\RI management practices. 6LPLODUFRQVLGHUDWLRQVDOVRDSSO\WROLYLQJUHVRXUFHV 5HVWRUDWLRQHIIRUWVUHO\RQXQGHUVWDQGLQJKLVWRULFUHODWLRQ VKLSVEHWZHHQFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQVDQGHFRORJLFDOSURFHVVHV &OLPDWLFVKLIWVKRZHYHUDUHOLNHO\WRMHRSDUGL]HWKHVH UHODWLRQVKLSV)RUH[DPSOHWKH%D\3URJUDPSODFHVJUHDW ZHLJKWRQSODQWLQJ6$96RPH6$9VSHFLHVKRZHYHUDUH Critical Restoration Strategy Question: How will state tributary strategies and living resource restoration strategies perform under changing climatic conditions? Important Questions: • How will climate change alter the cost or feasibility of achieving water quality and living resource restoration goals? • What are the implications of sea-level rise for tidal wetland loss, shoreline and nearshore erosion, inundation of low-lying coastal communities, and shoreline hardening strategies? • What are the implications of climate change for non-indigenous species, diseases, pathogens, and pests? Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay TXLWHVHQVLWLYHWRSHDNVXPPHUWHPSHUDWXUHVDQGÁRZ UHJLPHV6HFWLRQ,,&OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOOOLNHO\DOWHU ERWKYDULDEOHVDQGOLNHO\KLQGHUUHVWRUDWLRQVXFFHVV)RUWX QDWHO\LGHQWLI\LQJWKHVHFOLPDWLFDVVXPSWLRQVLVSRVVLEOHLQ GHYHORSLQJPRUHVXVWDLQDEOHUHVWRUDWLRQSODQV([SHULHQFH LQRWKHUHFRV\VWHPVKDVVKRZQWKDWLWLVSRVVLEOHIRU H[DPSOHWRLGHQWLI\UHVLOLHQWVLWHVZKHUHFRROORFDOZDWHUV RIIVHWULVLQJUHJLRQDOWHPSHUDWXUHVDQGVXVWDLQUHVWRUHG SRSXODWLRQVThe Bay Program and its partners should assess the vulnerability of living resource restoration efforts to climate change and require that projects take VSHFLÀFVWHSVWRLQFUHDVHWKHOLNHOLKRRGRIVXFFHVVXQGHU changing conditions. (DFKRIWKHVHFDVHVLOOXVWUDWHVWKDWFOLPDWHFKDQJHFDQ GLUHFWO\DIIHFWNH\&KHVDHDNH%D\3URJUDPVWUDWHJLHV7KH SURJUDPPXVWFRQVLGHUWKHVHLPSDFWVLQPRUHGHWDLODQG PRVWLPSRUWDQWO\H[SOLFLWO\LQFRUSRUDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQ FKDQJLQJFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQVLQWRDQDO\VHVDQGGHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ –5– Adaptive Responses to Changing Climatic Conditions 8QGHUVWDQGLQJWKHLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQ%D\ 3URJUDPSULRULWLHVVHWVDIRXQGDWLRQIRUFKDQJHVLQ PDQDJHPHQWSUDFWLFHWKDWDQWLFLSDWHDQGUHVSRQGWR VKLIWLQJFRQGLWLRQV7KHFOLPDWHFKDQJHVFLHQFHFRPPXQLW\ FDOOVVXFKUHVSRQVHV´DGDSWDWLRQµ$OWKRXJKDGDSWDWLRQ LVDORQJVWDQGLQJDUHDRIVFLHQWLÀFUHVHDUFKLQWHUHVWKDV LQFUHDVHGLQUHFHQW\HDUVDVUHVRXUFHPDQDJHUVQRWLFHG HDUO\VLJQVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGUHFRJQL]HGWKDW DGGLWLRQDOLPSDFWVDUHOLNHO\DQGTXLWHSRVVLEO\LQHYLWDEOH 5HVHDUFKHUVGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQresilientDQGadaptive UHVSRQVHVWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHLPSDFWV5HVLOLHQWUHVSRQVHV LQFUHDVHWKHFDSDFLW\RIDKXPDQRUHFRORJLFDOV\VWHPWR UHVSRQGWRGLVWXUEDQFHDQGDFFRPPRGDWHFKDQJLQJFRQGL WLRQV6XFKUHVSRQVHVW\SLFDOO\GRQRWUHTXLUHDVVXPSWLRQV RUIRUHFDVWVDERXWIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQVEXWUDWKHULGHQWLI\ RSSRUWXQLWLHVWRPDNHGHFLVLRQVPRUHUREXVWWRDUDQJHRI IXWXUHFRQGLWLRQVHJDVLQWKHFDVHRISRRUO\FRQVWUDLQHG SUHFLSLWDWLRQIRUHFDVWVLQ6HFWLRQ,,$GDSWLYH UHVSRQVHV JRIXUWKHUE\EDVLQJPDQDJHPHQWRQERWKFXUUHQWREVHU YDWLRQVDQGDQWLFLSDWHGIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQV$GDSWLYH DSSURDFKHVDUHSDUWLFXODUO\DSSURSULDWHIRUGHFLVLRQV GHDOLQJZLWKVLWXDWLRQVLQZKLFKULVLQJVHDOHYHOVDQG WHPSHUDWXUHVGHPRQVWUDWHFOHDUWUHQGVDQGFRQVLVWHQW SURMHFWLRQV6HFWLRQV,,DQG,, 9 Critical Climate Adaption Question: How can restoration strategies be designed, deployed, and monitored to ensure that they are resilient and adaptive to changing climatic conditions? Important Questions: • How can water quality regulations be made VIWMPMIRXXSGPMQEXMG¾YGXYEXMSRWERHERXMGMTEXI changing climatic conditions? • How can ecological restoration strategies anticipate rising sea levels and changing temperature regimes? • How should management practices be altered to increase their resilience to future precipitation regimes? • How can coastal landowners make resilient and, when possible, adaptive decisions about their responses to rising sea levels? ,QWKHVHVLWXDWLRQVEDVLQJGHFLVLRQVZLWKORQJWHUP FRQVHTXHQFHVRQKLVWRULFREVHUYDWLRQVDORQHZRXOGSURYH LUUHVSRQVLEOH6LPSO\SODQQLQJIRUDYHU\EURDGUDQJH RIIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQVLH´VXSHUVL]HGµLQIUDVWUXFWXUH KRZHYHULVXVXDOO\LQHIÀFLHQW5HVRXUFHPDQDJHUVPXVW DQWLFLSDWHIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQVDQGGHVLJQDFFRUGLQJO\ $VZLWKDQ\DGDSWLYHDSSURDFKHIIHFWLYHDQGHIÀFLHQW DFWLRQUHTXLUHVFORVHFRXSOLQJRIPDQDJHPHQWDQG PRQLWRULQJWRXQGHUVWDQGSUHSDUHIRUDQGUHVSRQGWR FKDQJLQJFRQGLWLRQVThe Bay Program and its partners can and should increase the resilience of its activities to uncertain precipitation regimes and adapt them to rising temperatures and sea levels. –6– Next Steps &OLPDWHFKDQJHUHSUHVHQWVPRUHWKDQDIXWXUHWKUHDWWR WKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\7KH%D\3URJUDPDQGLWVSDUWQHUV DUHPDNLQJIDUUHDFKLQJGHFLVLRQVZLWKLPSOLFDWLRQVWKDW H[WHQGGHFDGHVLQWRWKHIXWXUH,QWKLVFRQWH[WFOLPDWH FKDQJHGHPDQGVLPPHGLDWHFRQVLGHUDWLRQLQHIIRUWVWR SURWHFWDQGUHVWRUHZDWHUTXDOLW\DQGOLYLQJUHVRXUFHVThe Bay Program and its partners must take immediate action to understand the consequences of changing climatic conditions and make consideration of climate change an integral part of decision-making. 10 6.1 Understanding the consequences of climate change 7KH%D\3URJUDPDQGLWVSDUWQHUVVKRXOGDGGUHVVWKHVH LVVXHVWKURXJKLWVFXUUHQWDXWKRULWLHVUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVDQG UHVRXUFHV7KHÀUVW³DQGSHUKDSVPRVWLPSRUWDQW³VWHS LVWRH[SOLFLWO\FRQVLGHUFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQDZLGHUDQJHRI UHVRXUFHPDQDJHPHQWGHFLVLRQVZDWHUTXDOLW\UHJXODWLRQ WULEXWDU\VWUDWHJLHVOLYLQJUHVRXUFHUHVWRUDWLRQDQGRWKHUV 7KHVHGHFLVLRQVW\SLFDOO\DUHEDVHGRQKLVWRULFFOLPDWLF REVHUYDWLRQVDQGOLNHO\DUHTXLWHVHQVLWLYHWRFOLPDWH FKDQJHThe Bay Program and its partners can and should immediately require all major resource management decisions to evaluate changing conditions on both the FRVWDQGHIÀFDF\RIWKHDFWLRQDQGH[SOLFLWO\FRQVLGHU management options that increase resilience or facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. 6.2 Understanding ecosystem processes 7KHXQFHUWDLQWLHVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQHFRV\VWHPSURFHVVHV SRVHVLJQLÀFDQWFKDOOHQJHVIRU7KH%D\3URJUDP6RPHRI WKHPRVWSUHVVLQJLVVXHVLQFOXGH 7KHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHIRUSUHFLSLWDWLRQ DQGHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQSDUWLFXODUO\WKHUHSUHVHQWD WLRQRIWKHVHSURFHVVHVLQWKH3KDVH9ZDWHUVKHGPRGHO 6HFWLRQV,,DQG,, 7KHLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQQRQSRLQWVRXUFH ORDGLQJV6HFWLRQV,,DQG,, 7KHUROHRIIRRGZHEG\QDPLFVLQPHGLDWLQJWKH UHVSRQVHRIHVWXDULQHHFRV\VWHPVWRFKDQJLQJFRQGLWLRQV 6HFWLRQ,, 7KHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHIRUVSHFLÀFWDUJHWV VXFKDVKDUPIXODOJDOEORRPVWKHELRJHRJUDSK\RI GLVHDVHDQGÀVKHULHVSURGXFWLYLW\6HFWLRQV,,DQG ,, (IIRUWVWRDGGUHVVWKHVHLVVXHVZLOOUHTXLUHDFFHOHUDWLRQDQG UHRULHQWDWLRQRIH[LVWLQJOLQHVRIUHVHDUFK,QVRPHFDVHV LWPD\FUHDWHQHZPRWLYDWLRQVWRDGGUHVVORQJVWDQGLQJ HFRORJLFDOLVVXHVVXFKDV%D\IRRGZHEG\QDPLFVThe Bay Program and its partners can and should provide direct support and, when possible, encourage research sponsors to provide targeted resources for climate-change-related research on key ecosystem processes. 6.3 Research coordination and leadership :LWKQRWDEOHH[FHSWLRQVWKHFXUUHQWERG\RINQRZOHGJH UHÁHFWVDKLVWRU\RIUHODWLYHO\EURDGEDVHGVKRUWWHUP UHVHDUFK7KLVVLWXDWLRQDURVHIURPGHFDGHVRIVSRUDGLF Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay IXQGLQJDODFNRILQVWLWXWLRQDOFRPPLWPHQWVDQGWKH DEVHQFHRIZLGHO\UHFRJQL]HGUHVHDUFKSULRULWLHVNo institutional focal point for climate change research and development activities relevant to the Chesapeake Bay currently exists. 7KLVVLWXDWLRQFRQWUDVWVZLWKVHYHUDOUHJLRQVWKDWKDYH VWURQJORQJVWDQGLQJUHODWLRQVKLSVLQWHUWZLQLQJFOLPDWH VFLHQFHSXEOLFSROLF\DQGHFRV\VWHPUHVWRUDWLRQ)RU H[DPSOHWKH&OLPDWH,PSDFWV*URXS&,*DWWKH 8QLYHUVLW\RI:DVKLQJWRQLVDQDZDUGZLQQLQJLQWHUGLV FLSOLQDU\UHVHDUFKJURXSWKDWUHVHDUFKHVQDWXUDOFOLPDWH YDULDELOLW\DQGJOREDOFKDQJHWRLQFUHDVHWKHUHVLOLHQFH RIWKH3DFLÀF1RUWKZHVWWRÁXFWXDWLRQVLQFOLPDWH7KH &,*KDVFRQWULEXWHGGHPRQVWUDEO\WRDIRXQGDWLRQRI NQRZOHGJHWKDWVXSSRUWVVRPHRIWKHPRVWSURJUHVVLYH FOLPDWHFKDQJHSROLF\LQWKHQDWLRQHJ.LQJ&RXQW\ :DVKLQJWRQ·V&OLPDWH3ODQ7KH&KHVDSHDNH%D\ ZRXOGEHQHÀWJUHDWO\IURPDVLPLODURUJDQL]DWLRQThe Bay Program and its partners should take the lead in establishing an organization that links climate science, policy, and management throughout the watershed as quickly as possible. Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay 6.4 Climate Change Action Plan $QDVVHVVPHQWRIFOLPDWLFDVVXPSWLRQVDQGVHQVLWLYLWLHV RIIHUVLPPHGLDWHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRULPSURYHPHQWWR LQWHUQDO%D\3URJUDPGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVHV7KLV VWHSLVQHFHVVDU\EXWLQVXIÀ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he Bay Program and its partners should take immediate action to promote and support the development of a Baywide Climate Change Action Plan. 11 12 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Section II Research Review –1– Introduction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HDUOLHULQWKHVFRPSDUHGWRWKHV$QDO\]LQJWKH VDPH<RUN5LYHUZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHWLPHVHULHV:RRGHW DO. >@IRXQGVLJQLÀFDQWZDUPLQJWUHQGVLQVHYHQRI WKHFDOHQGDUPRQWKVZLWKLQWKHVSULQJVXPPHUDQG ZLQWHUVHDVRQV3UHVWRQ>@DQDO\]HGVXUIDFHPDQG VXEVXUIDFHPWHPSHUDWXUHGDWDIURPWKH&KHVDSHDNH %D\:DWHU4XDOLW\0RQLWRULQJ3URJUDP² DVZHOODVKLVWRULFDOGDWDDUFKLYHGE\WKH&KHVDSHDNH %LRORJLFDO,QVWLWXWHIURP$QQXDOZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUH DQRPDOLHVZHUHSRVLWLYHO\DQGVLJQLÀFDQWO\FRUUHODWHG p%RQIHUURQLDGMXVWHGtWHVWZLWKUHJLRQDODLU WHPSHUDWXUHDVZHOODV1RUWKHUQ+HPLVSKHUHPHDQDLU WHPSHUDWXUHVXJJHVWLQJODUJHVFDOHFRQWUROVRQ%D\ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUH7KLVÀQGLQJLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWK$XVWLQ·V>@ FRQQHFWLRQRI%D\WHPSHUDWXUHZLWKWKH1RUWK$WODQWLF 2VFLOODWLRQ1$2DQG&URQLQHWDO·V >@GHWHFWLRQRI VWURQJFRUUHVSRQGHQFHEHWZHHQWHPSHUDWXUHDQRPDOLHVLQ WKH%D\DQGRQWKHFRQWLQHQWDOVKHOIDWPRQWKO\WRLQWHU Figure 1. Projections from the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), except for panel d, for 6 scenarios described in Nakiþenoviþ and Swart [2000] and in the box on page 16 of this report: a) CO2 emissions; b) modeled levels of CO2 according to the Bern carboncycle model; c) global mean surface air temperature change from 1990 from the average of nine TAR models. Data for a, b, and c come from Appendix H of Houghton et al. [2001]. Panel d shows global mean sea-level change from 1990 using dH/dt = a(T - TO), in which a = 3.4 mm yr -1 o C-1 [Rahmstorf, 2007], H is sea level,T is global mean air temperature, and TO is the temperature 0.5 o C below the 1951– 1980 average temperature. In panel c, the 1990 temperature was about 0.3 o C greater than the 1951–1980 average.We, therefore, add 0.8 o C to temperature in panel c to get T - TO , giving a value of 1.7 mm yr -1 for dH/dt, which is within the error of the observed rate [Church et al., 2004]. w Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay 15 7IE0IZIP'LERKIQQ 8IQTIVEXYVI'LERKIo C) CO2TTQ )QMWWMSRW4K']-1) IPCC Climate Change Scenarios The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a set of socioeconomic scenarios as the basis for climate change modeling and policy analysis. The following verbatim descriptions from Nakicenovic and Swart [2000] are the most widely used scenarios: A1 Future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in the mid-21st century ERHHIGPMRIWXLIVIEJXIVERHXLIVETMHMRXVSHYGXMSRSJRI[ERHQSVIIJ½GMIRXXIGLRSPSKMIW1ENSV underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family has three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system: fossil intensive %*-RSRJSWWMPIRIVK]WSYVGIW%8SVEFEPERGIEGVSWWEPPWSYVGIW%&[LIVIFEPERGIHMWHI½RIHEWRSX relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies). A2 A very heterogeneous world where the underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than other storylines. B1 A convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and MRJSVQEXMSRIGSRSQ][MXLVIHYGXMSRWMRQEXIVMEPMRXIRWMX]ERHXLIMRXVSHYGXMSRSJGPIERERHVIWSYVGIIJ½GMIRX technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. B2 A world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, and with intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. When considering future conditions in the Chesapeake Bay, it is important to note that no direct connection exists between these global storylines and regional conditions. This situation makes it important to consider carefully the implied relationship between global drivers and local and regional conditions (e.g., population size, technology choices, etc.). The U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program is currently developing tools to provide national and regional realizations of IPCC storylines for urban land cover through their Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. DQQXDOWLPHVFDOHVVLQFHWKHV&URQLQHWDO. >@DOVR GRFXPHQWHGVHYHUDOUDSLGVKLIWVRI&KHVDSHDNH%D\VSULQJ WHPSHUDWXUHRIa²&RYHUWKHSDVWWZRPLOOHQQLD0HDQ VSULQJZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHZDVWR&KLJKHUGXULQJ WKHthFHQWXU\WKDQIURPWR 7DNHQWRJHWKHUWKHWHPSHUDWXUHVWXGLHVVKRZDVWURQJ FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHLQWKH%D\DQG UHJLRQDODWPRVSKHULFDQGRFHDQLFWHPSHUDWXUHVDWPRQWKO\ WRGHFDGDOWLPHVFDOHV7KXVUHJLRQDOWHPSHUDWXUH SURMHFWLRQVIURPFOLPDWHPRGHOVOLNHO\FDQEHDSSOLHG GLUHFWO\WRWKH%D\6XFKDQDSSOLFDWLRQLVIRUWXQDWHVLQFH 16 FOLPDWHPRGHOVHYHQQHVWHGUHJLRQDOFOLPDWHPRGHOVGR QRWKDYHDVSDWLDOUHVROXWLRQVXIÀFLHQWO\ÀQHWRGHSLFWWKH &KHVDSHDNH%D\ 7ZRUHFHQWVWXGLHVDQDO\]HGWKHRXWSXWRIJOREDOFOLPDWH PRGHOV*&0VLQWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\UHJLRQ$VSDUWRI &$5$1DMMDUHWDO>@VFUXWLQL]HGWKHRXWSXWRIVHYHQ *&0VRYHUWKUHHPDMRUPLG$WODQWLFHVWXDULHV&KHVD SHDNH%D\'HODZDUH%D\DQGWKH+XGVRQ5LYHU(VWXDU\ 3URMHFWLRQVGLIIHUJUHDWO\DPRQJWKHPRGHOV)LJXUHEXW KLVWRULFDOO\WKHPXOWLPRGHODYHUDJHJHQHUDOO\SHUIRUPV EHWWHUWKDQLQGLYLGXDOPRGHOV7KHPXOWLPRGHODYHUDJH Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay FRXOGWUDFNWKHREVHUYHGthFHQWXU\ZDUPLQJRIWKH QRUWKHUQZDWHUVKHGV+XGVRQ'HODZDUHDQG6XVTXH KDQQD5LYHUEXWQRWWKHZHDNFRROLQJLQWKHVRXWKHUQ SRUWLRQRIWKH&KHVDSHDNHZDWHUVKHG>HJ$OODUGDQG .HLP@7KHPXOWLPRGHODYHUDJHDOVRVLPXODWHGWKH ORQJWHUPDQQXDODYHUDJHWHPSHUDWXUHZHOOEXWRYHUHV WLPDWHGWKHDQQXDOWHPSHUDWXUHUDQJHVXPPHUPLQXV ZLQWHUDQGLQWHUDQQXDOYDULDELOLW\0RGHODYHUDJHGSURMHF WLRQVIRUWKHVL[VFHQDULRVLQ)LJXUHUDQJHIURPWR&RI ZDUPLQJE\WR)LJXUHD:LWKXVHRIWKHEHVW SHUIRUPLQJPRGHOVWKHSURMHFWHGFKDQJHGHFUHDVHVWRWR &RIZDUPLQJ)LJXUHE ,QWKHVHFRQGVWXG\+D\KRHHWDO.>@FRQGXFWHGDQ DQDO\VLVXQGHU1(&,$RIQLQHJOREDOFOLPDWHPRGHOVIRU WKHQRUWKHDVW8QLWHG6WDWHV3HQQV\OYDQLDWR0DLQHZKLFK LQFOXGHVWKHQRUWKHUQKDOIRIWKH%D\ZDWHUVKHGHVVHQWLDOO\ WKH6XVTXHKDQQD5LYHUEDVLQ7KH\IRXQGWKDWWKHPXOWL PRGHODYHUDJHFDSWXUHVWKHREVHUYHGORQJWHUPLQFUHDVH LQDQQXDOPHDQUHJLRQDODLUWHPSHUDWXUHGXULQJWKHth FHQWXU\LQFOXGLQJWKHDFFHOHUDWLRQRYHUWKHODVW\HDUV 3URMHFWHGWHPSHUDWXUHFKDQJHVZHUHVLPLODUWRWKRVHRI 1DMMDUHWDO>@ 6KLIWVLQWHPSHUDWXUHH[WUHPHVDUHDVLPSRUWDQWDVDQQXDO PHDQWHPSHUDWXUHFKDQJHVQRWHGEHORZIRUVXEPHUJHG DTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQLQ6HFWLRQ,,0HHKOHWDO>@ DQDO\]HGWKHRXWSXWRIQLQHJOREDOFOLPDWHPRGHOVIRU FKDQJHVLQKHDWZDYHVGHÀQHGDV´WKHORQJHVWSHULRGLQ WKH\HDURIDWOHDVWÀYHFRQVHFXWLYHGD\VZLWKPD[LPXP WHPSHUDWXUHDWOHDVW&KLJKHUWKDQWKHFOLPDWRORJ\RIWKH VDPHFDOHQGDUGD\µ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ÁHFWVWKH 0LG$WODQWLFUHJLRQ·VORFDWLRQDWWKHERXQGDU\VHSDUDWLQJ VXEWURSLFDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQGHFUHDVHVDQGVXESRODUSUHFLSL WDWLRQLQFUHDVHVFRQVHQVXVLQFUHDVHVIRUWKHZLQWHUDVWKLV ERXQGDU\PRYHVVRXWK>0HHKOHWDO@ 2QHLPSRUWDQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFRISUHFLSLWDWLRQLV LQWHQVLW\SDUWLFXODUO\IRUZDWHUVKHGH[SRUWRIVHGLPHQW SKRVSKRUXVDQGWRDOHVVHUH[WHQWQLWURJHQWRHVWXDULHV 6HFWLRQV,,DQG,,'HÀQLQJLQWHQVLW\DVWKHDQQXDO 2.3 Precipitation 7KRXJKSUHFLSLWDWLRQIDOOLQJGLUHFWO\RQWKH&KHVDSHDNH KDVDYHU\VPDOOLQÁXHQFHRQLWVRYHUDOOZDWHUEDODQFH SUHFLSLWDWLRQIDOOLQJRQLWVZDWHUVKHGLVH[WUHPHO\ LPSRUWDQWLQUHJXODWLQJVWUHDPÁRZHQWHULQJWKH%D\7KLV IUHVKZDWHULQÁRZLVDGRPLQDQWGULYHURI%D\FLUFXODWLRQ ELRJHRFKHPLVWU\DQGHFRORJ\6HYHUDOVWXGLHVGRFXPHQW thFHQWXU\LQFUHDVHVRISUHFLSLWDWLRQLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV LQFOXGLQJWKH1RUWKHDVWSDUWLFXODUO\LQH[WUHPHZHWHYHQWV >*URLVPDQHWDO*URLVPDQHWDO@&OLPDWH PRGHOVKDYHLQJHQHUDOEHHQXQDEOHWRVLPXODWHWKLV ORQJWHUPFKDQJHLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQLQWKHQRUWKHDVW8QLWHG 6WDWHV>+D\KRHHWDO1DMMDUHWDO@&OLPDWH PRGHOVGRFDSWXUHORQJWHUPPHDQVRIDQQXDOZLQWHUDQG Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Figure 2. Annual average surface temperature from the mouth of the York River (VIMS pier), the mouth of the Patuxent River (CBL pier), and the average throughout the mainstem Bay (Bay average). The VIMS data come from Austin (2002) and the CBL data come from Secor and Wingate (2008).The VIMS data are part of the VIMS 7GMIRXM½G(EXE%VGLMZIEGUYMVIHJVSQ+EV]%RHIVWSREX:-17(EZMH .EWMRWOM'LIWETIEOI&E]4VSKVEQ3J½GIGSQTYXIHXLI&E]EZIVEKI data using measurements from the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality 1SRMXSVMRK4VSKVEQ(EXE[IVI½VWXEZIVEKIHF]QSRXLEXIEGL station, then by year, before taking the arithmetic mean of all stations. 17 PHDQSUHFLSLWDWLRQGLYLGHGE\WKHQXPEHURIGD\VZLWK UDLQ0HHKOHWDO>@VKRZHGWKDWPDQ\PRGHOVSUHGLFW VLJQLÀFDQWLQFUHDVHVRIWKLVYDULDEOHSDUWLFXODUO\DWPLGGOH DQGKLJKODWLWXGHVLQFOXGLQJWKH0LG$WODQWLFUHJLRQ 8QGHUWKH$%VFHQDULRPLG$WODQWLFSUHFLSLWDWLRQ LQWHQVLW\LVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHE\RQHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ E\WKHHQGRIWKHVWFHQWXU\7KHLQFUHDVHLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQ LQWHQVLW\UHVXOWHGIURPWKHLQFUHDVHLQDQQXDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQ DVZHOODVWKHQXPEHURIGU\GD\V³DÀQGLQJFRQVLVWHQW ZLWKFKDQJHVLQVWRUPIUHTXHQF\DQGLQWHQVLW\6HFWLRQ ,, 2.4 Streamflow 6WUHDPÁRZUHDFKLQJWKH%D\LVJRYHUQHGE\KRZPXFK SUHFLSLWDWLRQIDOOVRQLWVZDWHUVKHGEXWDOVRE\HYDSR WUDQVSLUDWLRQORVVWRWKHDWPRVSKHUHDQGZDWHUVKHGVWRUDJH FKDQJHV2YHULQWHUDQQXDOWLPHVFDOHVVWRUDJHFKDQJHVDUH EHOLHYHGVPDOOWKXVVWUHDPÁRZVLPSO\HTXDOVWKHH[FHVV RISUHFLSLWDWLRQRYHUHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQDYHUDJHGRYHU WKHZDWHUVKHG$YHUDJHGRYHUPDQ\\HDUVVWUHDPÁRZ WRWKH%D\LVDERXWRISUHFLSLWDWLRQWKURXJKRXWWKH ZDWHUVKHG>6DQNDUDVXEUDPDQLDQDQG9RJHO@ 0XFKRIWKHLQWHUDQQXDOYDULDELOLW\LQVWUHDPÁRZWRWKH %D\LVGULYHQE\SUHFLSLWDWLRQZLWKDUHODWLYHO\VPDOOUROH IRUHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ1DMMDU>@IRUH[DPSOHIRXQG WKDWZDWHUVKHGSUHFLSLWDWLRQH[SODLQVRIWKHYDULDELOLW\ RIDQQXDODYHUDJH6XVTXHKDQQD5LYHUÁRZKDOIWKH WRWDOIUHVKZDWHUÁRZWRWKH%D\$XVWLQ>@H[DPLQHG WKHWRUHFRUGRIDQQXDOVWUHDPÁRZLQWRWKH &KHVDSHDNHDQGIRXQGVXEVWDQWLDOLQWHUDQQXDOYDULDELOLW\ DUDQJHRIPRUHWKDQDVZHOODVGHFDGDOYDULDELOLW\ FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\GU\FRQGLWLRQVGXULQJWKHVZHW FRQGLWLRQVGXULQJWKHVDQGUHODWLYHO\QRUPDOFRQGL WLRQVVLQFHWKHQ+HQRWHGQRREYLRXVORQJWHUPWUHQG WKRXJKRWKHUV>*URLVPDQHWDO*URLVPDQHWDO @FKDUDFWHUL]HWKH1RUWKHDVWDVDUHJLRQRILQFUHDVLQJ VWUHDPÁRZSDUWLFXODUO\LQH[WUHPHZHWHYHQWV6DHQJHUHW DO>@SURYLGHGDORQJHUWHUPSHUVSHFWLYHRQÁRZLQWR WKH%D\XVLQJVDOLQLW\SUR[\GDWDDQGVWUHDPÁRZVDOLQLW\ UHODWLRQVKLSVWRLQIHUYDULDELOLW\LQ6XVTXHKDQQD5LYHU Figure 3. Seasonal temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) changes averaged over the Chesapeake Bay watershed with respect to 1971 to 2000 predicted under the A2 scenario by seven climate models for 2010 – 2039, 2040 – 2069, and 2070 – 2099. At the far right of each panel are the annual average changes for the seven-model mean and the overall model range (reproduced from Najjar et al. [2008]). 18 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Figure 4. Projected change in the annual mean temperature (a and b) and precipitation (c and d) of the Chesapeake Bay watershed for six IPCC scenarios (see Figure 1) averaged over seven climate models (a and c) and the four highest ranked (b and d). From Najjar et al. [2008]. ÁRZWKURXJKRXWWKH+RORFHQH7KHLUDQDO\VLVVXJJHVWV WKDWDYHUDJHVWUHDPÁRZWR\HDUVDJRZDV ORZHUWKDQGXULQJWKHSDVW\HDUV/DUJHGHFDGDODQG FHQWHQQLDOYDULDELOLW\GXULQJWKHODVW\HDUVZDVDOVR LQIHUUHG 3UHYLRXVK\GURORJLFDOPRGHOLQJVWXGLHVÀQGZLGHO\ YDU\LQJVWUHDPÁRZSURMHFWLRQVLQWKHQRUWKHDVW8QLWHG 6WDWHV7DEOHHYHQZKHQIRUFHGE\WKHVDPHFOLPDWH PRGHOV>1HIIHWDO:RORFNDQG0F&DEH@ 7KLVUHVXOWLVSX]]OLQJHVSHFLDOO\JLYHQWKDWK\GURORJLFDO PRGHOVJHQHUDOO\DUHDEOHWRKLQGFDVWWKHKLVWRULFDO VWUHDPÁRZUHFRUGLQWKH0LG$WODQWLFUHJLRQDFFXUDWHO\ >HJ+D\KRHHWDO1DMMDU6ZDQH\HWDO :RORFNHWDO@0RVWRIWKHSDVWYDULDELOLW\KRZHYHULV GXHWRFKDQJHVLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQ 7KHGLVFUHSDQF\LQIXWXUHSURMHFWLRQVPRVWOLNHO\DULVHV EHFDXVHPRGHOVSUHGLFWGLIIHUHQWHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ UHVSRQVHVDQGWKHUHIRUHVWUHDPÁRZUHVSRQVHVWR WHPSHUDWXUHFKDQJH7KLVGLYHUJHQFHLVSUREDEO\GXH WRWKHODFNRIDQREVHUYDWLRQDOUHFRUGRIVXEVWDQWLDO WHPSHUDWXUHFKDQJHZLWKZKLFKWRFRQVWUDLQK\GURORJLFDO Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay PRGHOV)RUH[DPSOHWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIDQQXDO DLUWHPSHUDWXUHRYHUWKH&KHVDSHDNHZDWHUVKHGLV &>1DMMDUHWDO@³VPDOOFRPSDUHGWRWKHPXOWL PRGHOPHDQSURMHFWHG\HDUZDUPLQJ)LJXUH 2WKHUFRQIRXQGLQJLQÁXHQFHVRQVWUHDPÁRZZKLFKDUH JHQHUDOO\QRWFRQVLGHUHGLQIXWXUHSURMHFWLRQVLQFOXGH YHJHWDWLRQFKDQJHVWKHGLUHFWLQÁXHQFHRI&2RQ HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQDQGODQGXVHFKDQJHSUHGRPLQDQWO\ XUEDQL]DWLRQDJULFXOWXUHDQGIRUHVWU\ 7KHVHDVRQDOLW\RIVWUHDPÁRZLQWRWKH%D\LVH[WUHPHO\ LPSRUWDQWEHFDXVHLWKHOSVUHJXODWHWLPLQJRIWKHVSULQJ EORRP6HFWLRQ,,+\GURORJLFDOPRGHOVLPXOD WLRQVE\+D\KRHHWDO>@LQWKHQRUWKHDVW8QLWHG 6WDWHVSUHGLFWHGJUHDWHUZLQWHUWLPHÁRZVGXHWRVQRZ PHOWDQGGHSUHVVHGVXPPHUÁRZVGXHWRLQFUHDVHG HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ7KH\DOVRSUHGLFWHGDQDGYDQFH RIWKHVSULQJVWUHDPÁRZSHDNE\QHDUO\WZRZHHNV$ VWDWLVWLFDODSSURDFKE\6FKRHQHWDO.>@FRPELQHGZLWK FOLPDWHPRGHORXWSXWVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKH4WKHORZHVW VWUHDPÁRZIRUVHYHQFRQVHFXWLYHGD\VWKDWRFFXUVRQ DYHUDJHRQFHHYHU\\HDUVZLOOGHFUHDVHVXEVWDQWLDOO\ LQWKHIXWXUH 19 7IE0IZIP%RSQEP]Q VWURQJFRUUHODWLRQH[LVWVEHWZHHQ-DQXDU\WR0D\ÁRZDQG SUHFLSLWDWLRQLQWKLVEDVLQVXFKWKDWWKHSHUFHQWLQFUHDVHLQ ÁRZHTXDOVWKHSHUFHQWLQFUHDVHLQSUHFLSLWDWLRQ>1DMMDU @*LYHQWKHFRQVHQVXVDPRQJPRGHOVIRUULVHLQ VSULQJDQGZLQWHUSUHFLSLWDWLRQWKH-DQXDU\WR0D\ÁRZ RIWKH6XVTXHKDQQDZLOOOLNHO\LQFUHDVHLQWKHIXWXUH Year Figure 5. Long-term sea-level change at two locations in the Chesapeake Bay: Baltimore, MD (upper Bay) and Sewells Point,VA (lower Bay). Data are annual mean differences from the 1950 – 2000 EZIVEKIERH[IVIEGUYMVIHJVSQ23%%´W'IRXIVJSV3TIVEXMSREP Oceanographic Products and Services. (DUO\ZDWHUEDODQFHVWXGLHVRIWKH6XVTXHKDQQD5LYHU EDVLQDOVRVXJJHVWHGJUHDWHUZLQWHUÁRZVEXWZLWKOHVV DJUHHPHQWRQVXPPHUÁRZVDQGWLPLQJRIWKHVSULQJ IUHVKHW>1DMMDU1HIIHWDO@-DQXDU\WR0D\ DYHUDJHÁRZRIWKH6XVTXHKDQQDKDVEHHQXVHGWRSUHGLFW VXPPHUWLPHFLUFXODWLRQSDUDPHWHUV>+DJ\@DQG GLVVROYHGR[\JHQOHYHOV>+DJ\HWDO@+LVWRULFDOO\D 'XHWRWKHJUHDWHUQXPEHURISUHFLSLWDWLRQIUHHGD\VDV ZHOODVWKHJUHDWHUHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQUHVXOWLQJIURP KLJKHUWHPSHUDWXUHVGURXJKWZLOOOLNHO\LQFUHDVHLQ WKHIXWXUH'HÀQLQJGURXJKWDVDRUPRUHGHÀ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ea level 7LGHJDXJHPHDVXUHPHQWVUHYHDODVWHDG\LQFUHDVHLQ VHDOHYHOWKURXJKRXWWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\GXULQJWKH Table 1. 7YQQEV]SJL]HVSPSKMGEPQSHIPMRKWXYHMIWWLS[MRKXLIMR¾YIRGISJGPMQEXIGLERKISRWXVIEQ¾S[MRXLI1MH%XPERXMGVIKMSR (reproduced from Najjar et al. [2008]). Region CO2 Scenario 8MQI Period Number of GCMs Annual 7XVIEQàS[ 'LERKI McCabe and Ayers (1989) Delaware River Basin Doubling – 3 - 39 to 9 Moore et al. (1989) Mid-Atlantic/New England Doubling – 4 - 32 to 6 Najjar (1999) Susquehanna River Basin Doubling – 2 24 ± 13 Neff et al. (2000) Susquehanna River Basin 1% yr -1 increase 1985 – 1994 to 2090 – 2099 2 - 4 to 24 Wolock and McCabe (1999) Mid-Atlantic 1% yr -1 increase 1985 – 1994 to 2090 – 2099 2 - 25 to 33 Hayhoe et al. (2007) Pennsylvania/New Jersey 2 9 to 18 Reference 20 A1F1 and B1 1961 – 1990 to 2070 – 2099 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay thFHQWXU\)LJXUH*OREDOPHDQVHDVXUIDFHKHLJKW LQFUHDVHGDWDUDWHRIPP\URYHUWKHVHFRQG KDOIRIWKHthFHQWXU\>&KXUFKHWDO@DQGHYLGHQFH VXJJHVWVWKDWWKLVUDWHLVLQFUHDVLQJ>&KXUFKDQG:KLWH @6HDOHYHOULVHGXULQJWKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKHth FHQWXU\KDVEHHQPRQLWRUHGDFFXUDWHO\DWVL[VLWHVLQWKH %D\UDQJLQJIURPWRPP\UZLWKDQDYHUDJHRI PP\U>=HUYDV@ 7KHHQKDQFHGUDWHRIVHDOHYHOULVHLQWKH&KHVDSHDNHPRVW OLNHO\UHÁHFWVJHRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHWUHDW RIWKHLFHVKHHWWRWKH%D\·VQRUWKGXULQJWKHHQGRIWKH ODVWJODFLDOSHULRG>'DYLVDQG0LWURYLFD@7KHJODFLHU FDXVHGEXOJLQJRIWKHODQGLPPHGLDWHO\WRLWVVRXWKWKH %D\UHJLRQWKHJODFLHU·VVXEVHTXHQWUHWUHDWFDXVHGVLQNLQJ RIWKLVODQG6RPHKDYHVXJJHVWHGWKDWZDWHUZLWKGUDZDOV IURPXQGHUJURXQGDTXLIHUVKDYHDOVRFDXVHGVLJQLÀFDQW VXEVLGHQFHEXWKDUGHYLGHQFHLVODFNLQJ 5DKPVWRUI>@QRWHGWKDWUDWHVRIKLVWRULFVHDOHYHOULVH FDOFXODWHGZLWKFOLPDWHPRGHOVWHQGWREHWRRORZPRVW OLNHO\EHFDXVHLFHVKHHWG\QDPLFVDUHSRRUO\XQGHUVWRRG +HGHYHORSHGDVHPLHPSLULFDODSSURDFKWKDWSUHGLFWV JOREDOVHDOHYHOLQFUHDVHVRIWRPPE\IRU DUDQJHRIVFHQDULRVVSDQQLQJ%WR$),)LJXUHG $OORZLQJIRUHUURUVLQWKHFOLPDWHSURMHFWLRQVDQGLQWKH VHPLHPSLULFDOVHDOHYHOULVHPRGHOWKHSURMHFWHGUDQJH Figure 6. The relationship between annual sediment yield and XSXEPJVIWL[EXIVMR¾S[XSXLI'LIWETIEOI&E]JVSQXS 8LIGYVZIMWEPIEWXWUYEVIWTEVEFSPMG½XV2 = 0.88) with a forced zero intercept, y = 3 x 10-5x2 - 0.0325x. The estimates come from XLI'&4[IFWMXI8LI97+7GSQTYXIHXLIERRYEP]MIPHWF]WYQQMRK XLITVSHYGXWSJHEMP]WXVIEQ¾S[ERHVMZIVMRIXSXEPWYWTIRHIHWSPMHW (TSS) concentrations.These TSS values are based on a statistical model calibrated with TSS observations from several monitoring stations. Langland et al. (2006, p. 13) offer details on data sources and methodology. 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The fractional delivery of net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) for 16 major watersheds in the northeastern United States plotted as a function of mean discharge, mean precipitation, and mean temperature.The relationships for discharge ERHTVIGMTMXEXMSREVILMKLP]WMKRM½GERXT!ERH respectively).The relationship for temperature is weaker (p = 0.11) (taken from Howarth et al. [2006]). 24 ,IWHPSHUDWXUHLVWKHPDMRUIDFWRUFRQWUROOLQJWKHSHUFHQWDJH H[SRUWRI1$1,DV6FKDHIHUDQG$OEHU>@FRQFOXGHG DZDUPLQJRI&ZRXOGGHFUHDVHWKHQLWURJHQÁX[GRZQ WKH6XVTXHKDQQDE\DERXWDWUHQGRSSRVLWHWKDW SUHGLFWHGE\+RZDUWKHWDO>@1RWHKRZHYHUWKDW ZKLOH6FKDHIHUDQG$OEHU>@IRFXVHGRQWKHQHJDWLYH FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWHPSHUDWXUHDQGWKHIUDFWLRQRI1$1, H[SRUWHGE\ULYHUVWKH\UHSRUWHGDVLPLODUO\VWURQJSRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHIUDFWLRQRI1$1,H[SRUWDQG GLVFKDUJHURIDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ZLWKSYDOXHV IRUERWKRI(YDOXDWLQJWKHFRQWUROVRQSHUFHQWDJH 1$1,H[SRUWIURPWKHODQGVFDSH³LQFOXGLQJFOLPDWLF Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay YDULDEOHVVXFKDVWHPSHUDWXUHSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGGLVFKDUJH DORQJZLWKRWKHUSK\VLFDOYDULDEOHVVXFKDVVRLOW\SHDQG GHSWKWRSRJUDSK\DQGYHJHWDWLRQW\SH³VKRXOGEHFRPH DKLJKUHVHDUFKSULRULW\ 3URFHVVEDVHGVLPXODWLRQPRGHOVRIELRJHRFKHPLFDO F\FOLQJLQZDWHUVKHGVRIIHURQHDSSURDFKIRUDVVHVVLQJ WKHLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQULYHULQHQLWURJHQH[SRUW WRFRDVWDOZDWHUV0DQ\VXFKPRGHOVH[LVWDQGSRWHQWLDOO\ FRXOGEHXVHG7KHVHPRGHOVDOOPDNHH[SOLFLWDVVXPS WLRQVKRZHYHUDERXWWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFOLPDWH DQGQLWURJHQÁX[7KHLUSUHGLFWLRQVDUHRQO\DVJRRGDVWKH XQGHUO\LQJDVVXPSWLRQV7KHFXUUHQWOHYHORIXQFHUWDLQW\ DERXWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIIXQGDPHQWDOPHFKDQLVPVUHODWLQJ QLWURJHQÁX[WRFOLPDWLFFRQWUROVLQKHUHQWO\OLPLWVWKH XVHIXOQHVVRIVLPXODWLRQPRGHOV $QRWKHUPDMRUXQFHUWDLQW\LVWKHSURSRUWLRQRIGHSRVLWLRQ RQWRWKHODQGVFDSHWKDWLVH[SRUWHG0DQ\IRUHVWVUHWDLQ PRVWGHSRVLWHGQLWURJHQDQGH[SRUWRQO\DVPDOODPRXQW EXWWKHDPRXQWYDULHVZLWKFOLPDWHDQGZLWKWKHIRUHVW·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ÁX[LQULYHUVRFFXUVDV LQRUJDQLFQLWURJHQ,WLVFRPPRQO\DVVXPHGWKDWKXPDQ DFWLYLW\SUHGRPLQDQWO\DIIHFWVWKHVHLQRUJDQLFQLWURJHQ ÁX[HVZKLOHRUJDQLFÁX[HVUHPDLQUHODWLYHO\FRQVWDQW >+RZDUWKHWDO@%URRNVKLUHHWDO>@KRZHYHU GHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWLQFUHDVHGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQFDQ LQFUHDVHWKHH[SRUWRIRUJDQLFQLWURJHQIURPIRUHVWV WRWKH%D\DQGGLUHFWO\RQWKH%D\VXUIDFHLWLQFOXGHV ERWKZHWGHSRVLWLRQDQGGU\JDVDQGSDUWLFOHGHSRVLWLRQ 'U\GHSRVLWLRQUHPDLQVGLIÀFXOWWRFKDUDFWHUL]HDOWKRXJK SURJUHVVKDVRFFXUUHG7KHGU\GHSRVLWLRQRIPDQ\ DEXQGDQWQLWURJHQSROOXWDQWJDVHVVXFKDV1212 +212DQG1+LVQRWPHDVXUHGLQDQ\RIWKHQDWLRQDO GHSRVLWLRQPRQLWRULQJSURJUDPV1$'3&$67QHWRU $,50RQ7KHPRVWUHFHQWUXQVRIWKH&0$4PRGHO DQHPLVVLRQVEDVHGPRGHORIDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ WKDWLQFOXGHVUHDOWLPHPHWHRURORJ\DQGDWPRVSKHULF FKHPLVWU\HVWLPDWLQJGHSRVLWLRQDWDNPJULGVFDOH VXJJHVWWKDWRIWKHWRWDOGHSRVLWLRQLQWKH%D\·V ZDWHUVKHGLVVLPSO\QRWPHDVXUHGLQFXUUHQWPRQLWRULQJ HIIRUWV>'HQLV@ 3.3 Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen Figure 8. 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VXVFHSWLELOLW\WRSUHGDWLRQ>%UHLWEXUJHWDO%UHLWEXUJ DQGSSP)LJXUHJUHZDQGFDOFLÀHGPRUHVORZO\ HWDO@DQGSURYLGLQJSUHGDWRU\UHIXJHWRRWKHUV WKDQWKRVHXQGHUDPELHQWDWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQVLQZKLFK >6DJDVWLHWDO@5HSHDWHGH[SRVXUHRIGHHSHUVXEWLGDO WHPSHUDWXUHVDOLQLW\OLJKWOHYHOGD\QLJKWF\FOHDQGIRRG R\VWHUSRSXODWLRQVRII&DOYHUW&OLIIV0DU\ODQGWRORZ TXDOLW\TXDQWLW\ZHUHKHOGFRQVWDQW R[\JHQERWWRPZDWHUGHSUHVVHGJURZWKUDWHVFRPSDUHG WRWKHUDWHVIRUR\VWHUVLQVKDOORZHUDUHDVZKHUHH[SRVXUH 5.5 Living resources summary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limate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Section 5: Summary of Questions – Living Resources • Which of the observed changes in the abundance or distribution of living resources in the Chesapeake Bay have been caused, at least in part, by climate change? • Have rising temperatures contributed to increases in the prevalence or effects of pathogens living in the Chesapeake Bay? • How will food web dynamics mediate biotic responses to climatic change? • How will host-pathogen systems (and other coupled biological systems) respond to changing conditions? • What are the implications of climate change for IGSW]WXIQFEWIH½WLIVMIWQEREKIQIRXTPERW# • Will global and regional increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations lead to distinct phytoplankton speciation unlike the composition currently observed? • Will increasing frequencies of extreme events (e.g., HVSYKLXWWIZIVIWXSVQWWIPIGXJSVE¾SVEERH bacterial community (including pathogens) more deleterious to current living resources and general public health? • Will increasing water temperatures favor increased heterotrophy, elevated pathogenic bacteria levels, enhanced nutrient recycling, and (through altered meteorology) increased harmful algal blooms and anoxia? • Which coastal areas and shorelines are more vulnerable to combinations of sea-level rise, shoreline hardening, and land use change? 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FKDQJHVLJQLÀFDQWO\GXHWRFOLPDWHRYHUWKLVFHQWXU\ –6– Cultural, Social, and Economic Research 6.1 Status of research +XPDQDFWLYLW\ZLOOERWKGULYHDQGPHGLDWHWKHLPSDFW RIFOLPDWHFKDQJHGXULQJWKHQH[WFHQWXU\7KHUHVHDUFK FRPPXQLW\RIWHQGHVFULEHVWKHFXOWXUDOVRFLDODQG HFRQRPLFIRXQGDWLRQRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDVLWV´KXPDQ GLPHQVLRQVµ'HVSLWHZLGHVSUHDGUHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHUROH RIKXPDQDFWLYLW\LQGULYLQJDQGUHVSRQGLQJWRFKDQJLQJ FRQGLWLRQVWKHVRFLDOVFLHQFHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHUHPDLQV SRRUO\UHVHDUFKHGDQGXQGHUVWRRG:HFRQVLGHUHGRPLWWLQJ WKLVVHFWLRQGXHWRODFNRILQIRUPDWLRQEXWFDPHWRWKH FRQVHQVXVWKDWLWSURYLGHVDQRSSRUWXQLW\WRXQGHUVFRUHWKH LPSRUWDQFHRIKXPDQDFWLYLWLHVIRUFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGD FKDQFHWRHPSKDVL]HWKHUHODWLYHODFNRILQIRUPDWLRQ 6.2 Anthropological perspectives &OLPDWHFKDQJHLQWKHUHJLRQKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRWUDQVIRUP ERWKFXOWXUDOO\DQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFDOO\WKHOLYHVDQGGDLO\ RSHUDWLRQVRIWKRVHZKRKDYHDVWDNHLQWKH&KHVDSHDNH %D\FRPPHUFLDOZDWHUPHQIDUPHUVSURSHUW\RZQHUV DQGPXQLFLSDODQGFRXQW\JRYHUQPHQWV1RV\VWHPDWLF UHVHDUFKKDV\HWLQYHVWLJDWHGKRZFOLPDWHFKDQJHZLOO 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insurance products and services based solely on historic observations will be especially unprepared to address future risks, as past conditions will become increasingly unreliable guides to future outcomes. Addressing this problem will require changes in SUDFWLFHIRUSULYDWHÀUPVDQGUHIRUPRIUHJXODWRU\SURFHVVHVHJ mechanisms to allow the use of models and predictive information in rate setting). The 2005 publication, “Climate Change Futures: Health, Ecological, and Economic Disruptions,” which was co-sponsored by the re-insurer Swiss Re and the United Nations Development Programme, describes many of the relevant issues. Several insurers have created a substantial foundation of information on climate change impacts and adaptive business strategies, perhaps most notably Swiss Re, Munich Re, and more recently, AIG. 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Results of an analysis of neighborhood design and STIVEXMSREPIPIQIRXWMRXLI97+VIIR&YMPHMRK'SYRGMP´W0))(JSV Neighborhood Development Program.These elements are divided MRXSXLVIIGEXIKSVMIW)EGLIPIQIRX[EWGSRWMHIVIHUYEPMXEXMZIP]JSV its sensitivity to climate change or its potential use in adapting to changing climatic conditions (from Pyke et al. [2007b]). Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Section 6: Summary of Questions – Social and Economic Research • How will climate change alter economic opportunities for individuals and the Bay region as a whole? • How will climate change affect individual livelihoods and the conditions facing sensitive groups, such as waterman or farmers? • How much will it cost to adapt to changing conditions (i.e., achieve existing performance goals under future conditions)? • How can we ensure that Bay monitoring systems are capturing and analyzing the most important pieces of information on the “human dimensions” of climate change? 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Castro, S. Crate, T. Johnson, D. Kimmel, and J. Shen improved the paper considerably. STAC colleagues J. Pease, A. Sadeghi, and S. Phillips provided helpful input on early drafts. D. Jasinski, R. Wingate, and G. Anderson provided the data for Figure 2. Technical editing and document preparation by Nina Fisher are appreciated. We are grateful for encouragement and support from C. Hershner, D. Lipton, R. Batuik, and L. Linker. :KLFKHYHUIRUPIXWXUHFOLPDWHFKDQJHUHVHDUFKDQGGHYHO RSPHQWLQWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\WDNHVWKHWLPHIRUDFWLRQLV FOHDUO\now&ULWLFDOFOLPDWHVHQVLWLYHGHFLVLRQVORRPRQ WKHQHDUKRUL]RQVRHQVXULQJWKDWDGHTXDWHVFLHQWLÀFLQIRU PDWLRQLVDYDLODEOHZKHQPDQDJHUVPDNHNH\GHFLVLRQVKDV EHFRPHFULWLFDO'HOD\LQJWKLVSURFHVVZLOOOLNHO\UHVXOWLQ LQFUHDVLQJO\VHULRXVVRFLDOHFRQRPLFDQGOHJDOOLDELOLWLHV 7KLVUHSRUWUHSUHVHQWVRQO\DVPDOOÀUVWVWHSLQH[SOLFLWO\ FRQVLGHULQJFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQ&KHVDSHDNH%D\3URJUDP GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ7KH%D\3URJUDP·VUHTXHVWIRUWKLV LQIRUPDWLRQLVDSDUWLFXODUO\SRVLWLYHVLJQLQGLFDWLQJ UHFRJQLWLRQRIWKLVLVVXH·VLPSRUWDQFHDQGKRSHIXOO\WKH FRPPLWPHQWWREDFNFUXFLDOPDQDJHPHQWGHFLVLRQVZLWK VROLGVFLHQWLÀFUHVHDUFK 46 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay References $EHU-:0F'RZHOO.1DGHOKRIIHU$0DJLOO* %HUQWVRQ0.DPDNHD60F1XOW\:&XUULH/ 5XVWDGDQG,)HUQDQGH]1LWURJHQVDWXUDWLRQLQ WHPSHUDWHIRUHVWHFRV\VWHPVBioScience² $EHU-'&/*RRGDOH692OOLQJHU0/6PLWK$+ 0DJLOO0(0DUWLQ5$+DOOHWWDQG-/6WRGGDUG ,VQLWURJHQGHSRVLWLRQDOWHULQJWKHQLWURJHQVWDWXV RIQRUWKHDVWHUQIRUHVWV"BioScience² $GROI-(&/<HDJHU:'0LOOHU0(0DOORQHH DQDG/:+DUGLQJ(QYLURQPHQWDOIRUFLQJ RISK\WRSODQNWRQÁRUDOFRPSRVLWLRQELRPDVVDQG SULPDU\SURGXFWLYLW\LQ&KHVDSHDNH%D\86$Estuar. 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Symp.32 ² :X6<5*1DMMDUDQG-6LHZHUW3RWHQWLDO LPSDFWVRIVHDOHYHOULVHRQWKH0LGDQG8SSHU $WODQWLF5HJLRQRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVSubmitted to Climatic Change =DN'5*(+RVWDQG.63UHJLW]HU5HJLRQDO YDULDELOLW\LQQLWURJHQPLQHUDOL]DWLRQQLWULÀFDWLRQDQG :HLVEHUJ6%530RULQ($5RVVDQG0)+LUVKÀHOG RYHUVWRU\ELRPDVVLQQRUWKHUQ/RZHU0LFKLJDQCan. J. (XVWURQJ\OLGHV1HPDWRGDLQIHFWLRQLQ For. Res. 19² PXPPLFKRJVDQGRWKHUÀVKHVRIWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\ =HUYDV&Sea level variations of the United States, 1854– UHJLRQTrans. Amer. Fish. Soc.115² 1999, NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 36 :HLVV*0/:+DUGLQJ-U(&,WVZHLUHDQG-: =KRQJ/0/LDQG0**)RUHPDQ,QSUHVV &DPSEHOO&KDUDFWHUL]LQJODWHUDOYDULDELOLW\RI 5HVRQDQFHDQGVHDOHYHOYDULDELOLW\LQ&KHVDSHDNH%D\ SK\WRSODQNWRQFKORURSK\OOLQ&KHVDSHDNH%D\ZLWK Cont. Shelf Res. DLUFUDIWRFHDQFRORUGDWDMar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. ² :HW]HO5/DQG3$3HQKDOH3URGXFWLRQHFRORJ\ RIVHDJUDVVFRPPXQLWLHVLQWKHORZHU&KHVDSHDNH%D\ Mar. Technol. Soc. J.17(2² :KLJKDP')$'-DFREV'(:HOOHU7(-RUGDQ 0(.HQWXOD6)-HQVHQDQG'/6WHYHQV-U &RPELQLQJ+*0DQG(0$3SURFHGXUHVWRDVVHVV ZHWODQGVDWWKHZDWHUVKHGVFDOH²6WDWXVRIÁDWVDQG QRQWLGDOULYHULQHZHWODQGVLQWKH1DQWLFRNH5LYHU :DWHUVKHG'HODZDUHDQG0DU\ODQGWetlands ² 58 Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Coordinating Authors Dr. Christopher R. Pyke LVWKH'LUHFWRURI&OLPDWH&KDQJH 6HUYLFHVIRU&7*(QHUJHWLFV,QF&7*·V&OLPDWH&KDQJH 6HUYLFHVKHOSFOLHQWVXQGHUVWDQGDQGUHGXFHJUHHQKRXVH JDVHPLVVLRQVDQGSUHSDUHIRUFKDQJLQJFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV WKURXJKWKHGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQRIEXLOWHQYLURQPHQWV 'U3\NHDOVRFRQWULEXWHVKLVH[SHUWLVHLQODQGXVHDQDO\VLV DQGPRGHOLQJWR&7*·V6XVWDLQDEOH&RPPXQLWLHVSUDFWLFH 3ULRUWRMRLQLQJ&7*'U3\NHZDVDQHQYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQWLVWZLWKWKH86(3$·V*OREDO&KDQJH5HVHDUFK 3URJUDPDQGFRFKDLURIWKH86&OLPDWH&KDQJH6FLHQFH 3URJUDP·V,QWHUDJHQF\:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ+XPDQ&RQWUL EXWLRQVDQG5HVSRQVHVWR&OLPDWH&KDQJH'U3\NH UHFHLYHGKLV3K'DQG0$GHJUHHVLQ*HRJUDSK\IURP WKH8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD6DQWD%DUEDUDDQGD%6LQ *HRORJ\IURPWKH&ROOHJHRI:LOOLDPDQG0DU\ Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay Dr. Raymond NajjarLVDQ$VVRFLDWH3URIHVVRULQWKH 'HSDUWPHQWRI0HWHRURORJ\DW3HQQV\OYDQLD6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\'U1DMMDULVDQRFHDQRJUDSKHUZKRFRQGXFWV UHVHDUFKRQWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQFRDVWDO UHJLRQV+HDOVRVWXGLHVWKHELRJHRFKHPLVWU\RIGLVVROYHG JDVHVDQGQXWULHQWVLQVHDZDWHU'U1DMMDUOHGWKHFRDVWDO SRUWLRQVRIWKH0LG$WODQWLF5HJLRQDO$VVHVVPHQWDQGWKH &RQVRUWLXPIRU$WODQWLF5HJLRQDO$VVHVVPHQW+HZDVDOVR FRFRRUGLQDWRURIWKHVHFRQGSKDVHRIWKH2FHDQ&DUERQ F\FOH0RGHO,QWHUFRPSDULVRQ3URMHFW 59

Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay State-of-the-Science Review and Recommendations

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