RFF REPORT PublicInfrastructure ǤǤ ADAPTATION | AN INITIATIVE OF THE CLIMATE POLICY PROGRAM AT RFF JUNE 2009 TableofContents ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ ͳǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹ ʹǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͶ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͷ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳͲ ǡǡ ǡǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ͵ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤͳ ͵ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹͲ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹͲ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹʹ ǡǡ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹͶ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹͷ ͶǤ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤʹ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵Ͳ ǡǡ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ͳ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ʹ ͷǤ ǣ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵͵ ǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤǤ͵ 2 AdaptingtoClimateChange:ThePublicPolicyResponse PublicInfrastructure ǤǤ ȗ Executive Summary ǡ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ ǣǢǢǡǡ Ǣ Ǥ ǡ Ǣ Ǣ Ǣ ǡ ǢǦ Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǣ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǥ x Theneedforintegrationofplanning. ǡ ǡ Ǧ Ǥ ǡǡ ǡǦ Ǥ Ǥ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍǡ ǡǡ Ǥǡ — Ǥ ȗPrincipalandSeniorAssociate,respectively;IndustrialEconomics,Incorporated.2067MassachusettsAvenueCambridge,MA 02140.(617)354Ͳ0074.ThisreportwaspreparedfortheResourcesfortheFutureprojectonadaptationtoclimatechange.For moreinformation,seewww.rff.org/adaptation. NEUMANN AND PRICE 1 x Theneedtoencourageinnovationintechnologyandupdatingofstandards. Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ x Theneedtotakebestadvantageofreplacementopportunities,includingextreme events. ǡ ǡ Ǥǡ Ǧ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ 1. Introduction ǤǤ Ǥǡ Ǥǡ ǡ ǡ ǡǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ ǡǡ ǡȌ ȋǤǤǡȌǤ ǡ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥͳ ǦǤ ȋȌʹͲͲ ǡǡ ǡǡ ǡ ǡ Dz ǡ ǡ ǥdz ȋǤʹͲͲǡ͵ͲȌǤ 1 Asstated,ourfocusisonthedirectimpactsofclimateoninfrastructure,ratherthantheimpactsofclimatepolicyon infrastructure.Forexample,theCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardhasbeguneffortstolinktransportationinfrastructuredecisions togreenhousegasintensity,agoodexampleofacarbonpolicy–inducedlinktoinfrastructureplanning,butnotadirect climateimpact.PlanningforpublicinfrastructureandlandͲuse/urbanplanningtasksclearlyinteractandoverlap,butthe scopeofourinterestinassetsaffectedbyclimatechangedoesnotspecificallyencompasslandͲuseplanning,exceptasatool toadapt. NEUMANN AND PRICE 2 ǡ Ǥǡ ǡ ǦǤ ǡ ȋ ȏȐʹͲͲͺȌ ǤǤ ȋȌ ȋǤǤʹͲͲȌǡ ǡ Ǥ ȋǤʹͲͲͺȌǡ ǤǤǤ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥʹ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤǡDz dz Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ ȋǤǤʹͲͲͺȌǤ Ǣǡ Ǥ Dz Ǥdz ǡ ǣ x Ǣ x ǡ ǡǡǡǢ x ǡ ǡǡ ǡ Ǣ 2 Publichealthinfrastructureisnotincludedinthescopeofthischapter,butadaptationofthepublichealthsystemisaddressed elsewhereaspartoftheoverallresearcheffort. NEUMANN AND PRICE 3 x Ǥ ǡǤ x Ǧǡ Ǥ x ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ freerider Ǥ x ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡǦ Ǣǡ Ǥǡǡ ǡ Ǧ Ǥ Ǥ ʹ ǡǡ ǡ ǤǤ Ǥ ͵ Ǥ Ͷ Ǥ ͷ Ǥ 2. Impacts ǡ ǡǡ ǡ Ǥ marginal Ǥ —ǡǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡǡ Ǧǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡǢ ǡ ȋǤǤǡȌǢ ȋǤ ʹͲͲͺȌǤ Ǧ ǡ NEUMANN AND PRICE 4 Ǥ ǡǡ ǡ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǤȋʹͲͲͺȌǡ Ǧ — Ǥ Ͷͷǡ Ǥ Ǥimpactǣ ȋ ǤʹͲͲͳȌǤ ǡ Ǥ͵ Transportation Infrastructure ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤ ȋʹͲͲʹȌ ǡ ͳǤ ȋʹͲͲʹȌ Ǥǡ Ǧ ǡǡǤ ǡ Ǧ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡǡǤ — ǡǡ Ǥ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǡǡ ǡ ǡǡ ȋǤʹͲͲͺȌǤǡǡ ȋʹͲͲʹȌǤ 3 Notethatinmanycases,workthatwereferenceherefirstaddressesphysicalimpacts,thenincorporatesadaptivecapacityto estimateremainingvulnerabilities. NEUMANN AND PRICE 5 Figure1.AspectsofTransportationThatMayBeSensitivetoChangesinClimate Source:ʹͲͲʹǤ ǡȋʹͲͲͺȌ Ǥ x Increasesinveryhotdaysandheatwaves: ǡǤ x IncreasesinArctictemperatures: ǡ ǦǤ NEUMANN AND PRICE 6 x Risingsealevels:ǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǥ x Increasesinintenseprecipitationevents: ǡ ǡ Ǥ x Increasesinhurricaneintensity: Ǣ Ǥ ȋʹͲͲͺȌ ̵ ǡǡǡ ǡ ǤǦ Ǥ x ǡǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ x ǡ ǡǡǤ x Ǥ x Ǥ x Ǥ x Ǥ Ǧ Ǥǡ ȋȌͶǤ ȋǤǤʹͲͲͺȌ ȋȌǤͶ ǡ ͳǤʹȋͶȌǡʹ ȋʹǡͶͲͲȌǡͻ ǡʹ ͳʹʹ ȋͶȌ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǥ Ǧ ͷǤͷǦǤͲǦ 4 RelativeSLRisthecombinedeffectofaeustaticchangeinsealevelandthechangeinlandlevel.InmanypartsoftheGulf Coastregion,particularlytheMississippiRiverdelta,landsubsidenceratesareveryhigh. NEUMANN AND PRICE 7 ȋͳͺǦʹ͵ǦȌǤ ǯ ǡ Ͷ ͷ Ǥǡǡʹͻǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǣ ǡ ǦǤ ǡǤ ǡ Ǥǡ ȋǤʹͲͲͷȌǡ Ǥͷ ǡ ǡǡǤ ȋ ȌǡǤ x ǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋ Ȍ Ǥ x Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ x Ǧ ǡ Ǧ Ǥǡǡǡ Ǥ x Ǧ Ǥ ǡ ǡǤ Ǥ 5 Thefullreferencetothischapterisasfollows:ArcticCouncilandtheInternationalArcticScienceCommittee,(2004),Arctic ClimateImpactAssessment.Chapter16,Infrastructure:Buildings,SupportSystems,andIndustrialFacilities. NEUMANN AND PRICE 8 Ǣ Ǧ ȋȌ ͳͲͲǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǥǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǧ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ ȋǤǡʹͲͲͺȌǤ Ǣ Ǥ ȋ ȌǦ ǡ DzǡdzDzǡdzDzdz Ǥ — Ǥ ǣ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍǡ ǡ Ǥ ǤȋʹͲͲͺȌ ǡ ǡǡǡǡǤ ʹͲ͵Ͳ ̈́ʹͶǤͷȋʹͲͲ̈́ȌǤǡ ǡ ̈́ʹǤ͵̈́ͶǤ͵ǡͻǤ͵ͳǤ ǡ Ǥ Ǧ ʹͲͺͲǤ ǡǯǦ ȋǢ ǤʹͲͲȌǡ Ǥ ʹͳ Ǥ ǡ ǡǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǧ ǡ ǯ NEUMANN AND PRICE 9 ǡ ǡ ȋǤʹͲͲͷȌǤ Ǧ Ǥ Energy Utility Provision, Including Electric, Natural Gas, Gasoline, and Oil Pipeline Networks ǤǤǤ ǡ Ǧ Ǥ ǯ Ǥ ǯʹͲͲ ȋǤǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ ǤǤ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ Ǧ ǡ ǡ ǡǡ ǯ ȋǤǤʹͲͲȌǤ Ǧǡ Ǥ x Reducedthermalefficiency: ǡ ǦǤ ǤȋʹͲͲͶȌǡ ͳͲι ͵Ͷ Ǥǡ ǤǤ ȋʹͲͲͶȌ Ǧ Ǥǡ ȋ Ȍǡ Ǥ x Reducedavailabilityofcoolingwaterinspecificregions: ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ x PowerplantsusceptibilitytoSLR: ǡ ȀǤ NEUMANN AND PRICE 10 ǤǤ ǡ ǯ ȋǤǤ ʹͲͲȌǤ ǦȋǤǤǡǡ ǡ ȌǤ ǤǤ ǣ x Hydroelectricdams: Ǥǡ Ǧ Ǥ ͳ ͳ Ǥ x Windfarms: Ǥ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥǡǡ Ǥǡ ǡ ͳͲͳͷ ʹͲͻͷȋǡ ǤǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǯ Ǣ Ǧ Ǥ x Photovoltaicsystems: ǤǤ ȋȌ Ǥ ʹͲͲͶ ʹͲ ʹͲͶͲ ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ʹ ȋ ǤǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ ǡ ǯ Ǥ x ȋ Ȍǣ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 11 x ǣ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǡǦ Ǥ x ǣ Ǥ x ǣ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ ǯ ǤǦǤǤ ȋǤǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ ǤǤǡǡ Ƭ ǡ ʹͺǤͷ ǤǤ ͳͻǤʹ ǯ ʹͲͲͷǤ ǤǤ Ǥ ͳͻͻͲǡ ͳι ǤǤ͵ͳͷ ͷʹͲ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤǡ ǡ ȋǤǤʹͲͲȌǤǡǡ ȋ Ȍ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ Ǥ ǡ ȋȌ ʹͲʹͲʹͲͶͲǤ ǡ ͵͵͵Ǧ ʹͲͶͲǤ ͶʹǡͲ͵͵ ǡ ȋʹͲͲͷȌǤ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 12 ǤȋʹͲͲͺȌ ǦǤ ǡ ǤʹͲͲͳǡȂ ʹʹǡͲͲͲǯͺͲǡͲͲͲ ȋ ǡ ǤǤ ʹͲͲ͵ȌǤ Water, Sewer, Communication, and Solid Waste Management Networks ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍ Ǥǡ Ǥ ǡʹͲͲͲȋ ʹͲͲͲȌ Ǧ ǯ ǡ Ǥ x Impactsrelatedtochangesintemperature: ǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǡǯǤ x Precipitation: ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ x Sealevelrise:ǡ ǡ ǡǤ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ ǡ Ǥ ȋǤʹͲͲȌ Ǥ ǦȄ Ȅ ʹͲͲͲȂʹͲͷͲͻ͵ ͺ ǦȋǤʹͲͲȌǤ ͷ NEUMANN AND PRICE 13 ʹͲʹͷǡ ͺ Ǥ ͳͲͲ ʹͳͲͲǤǦ Ǥǡ ǡ Ǧ Ǥ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ ͵ͷ ȋȌǡ ǡͷͲ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ȋȌǤǤ ȋʹͲͲȌ ̈́ʹʹǤͷ ̈́ʹͳͲǡͲͲͲ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ̈́͵Ͳ̈́͵ͻ ̈́͵ͲͲǡͲͲͲ̈́ͲͲǡͲͲͲ ȋǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡǡ ȋǡ Ȃ Ǧ Ȍǡ Ǥ ǡǡ Ǥ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍ ǢǡȀ ȋǤʹͲͲͷȌǤ ǡǡǤ ǯͷͲǦͳͲȋ ǤʹͲͲͷȌǤǡǡǡ ͳǤ͵ǡ ͳͲ ǯ ȋʹͲͲʹȌǤ ǡ ǤȋǤʹͲͲȌǡ ǡȀ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 14 ǡ Ǥ ǡȋʹͲͲȌ ǡǦ ǡǡ Ǥ ȋǤǤǡͳͲǦȌ Ǥǡ ͳͲǦ ͶͲ ǡͳʹͳ Ǥ ǡͳͲǦǡ Ǥ ǤǤ ȋȌǦ Ǥ ǤȋʹͲͲȌ ȋȌǤǤ Ǥ — ͳͶ ̈́ͺ̈́ͻǡ ̈́ͷͶǡͲͲͲ̈́ͲǡͲͲͲ ǤǡǤȋʹͲͲȌ ǡ Ǧ ǡ ȋȌ Ǥ ȋ ǡ Ȍǡ ȋȌ DzdzȋȌ Ǥǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǤǦ ȋȌ ǡ ǡʹͲͲ ǯ ǡ ȋʹͲͲȌǤǡ ǯǦ Ǥ Ǧ ǯǦǤ Ǧ x Ǣ x ǡ Ǣ NEUMANN AND PRICE 15 x Ǣ x Ǥ ǯ ǡ ǦǤ Coastal and Flood Defense Infrastructure ǡ Ǣ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥǡ Ȁ ǡ ǦǤ —ǡǡ Ǥ ʹͲͲͳȋǤʹͲͲͳȌǤ ǡǦ ͳͺ͵ͺ ʹͳͲͲǡǦ ʹͷͻ ʹͳͲͲȋǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ Dz ǤdzȋǤʹͲͲǡͳ͵ȌǤ Ǧ ȋǤʹͲͲȌǡǦ ͲǤͷͳǤͶ ȋʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ ǡ ǡ ȋǤʹͲͲͲȌǤǡ ʹͳͲͲǡ ǡ ǦǦǤ —ǡ ǡ — Ǣ Ǥ ǤǤ ͶǤͳǡCoastalElevations andSensitivitytoSeaLevelRiseȋǤǤʹͲͲͺȌǡ Ǧ Ǥ 6 Notethatincreasedstormdamagecouldoccureitherfrommoreintenseandfrequentstorms,orfromthegreaterstorm surgedamagepotentialthatresultsfromSLR,whichprovidesahighersealevel"base"andthereforeallowsstormsurgesto stretchfartherinlandandtodeeperfloodlevels. NEUMANN AND PRICE 16 Ǧǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǣ x Ǧǯ Ǧ ȋ ǡʹͲͲͳȌǢ x Ǧ Ǣ x ͻͲͲȂʹͳͲͲȋ͵ͷͲȂͺͲͲȌǡ ǡͷͲ ȋʹͲ ȌǤ ǤǤ Ǥ Ǧ —ǡǡǡȋ Ȍǡ ͷǡͲͲͲ ̈́ͳͲ ͷ Ǥ Ǧ ȋǤʹͲͲͲȌ Ǧ ȋ Ǧǡ ǡ Ȍ ȋ Ǧ ȌǤǡ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤǡ Ǥ ȋ ǤʹͲͲȌ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ ǤǦǡǡ Ǥ ʹǡ ͳͲͲǦ ȋǤ ʹͲͲȌreturntimeͳͲͲǦ Ǥǡǡ ȋǡ ʹͷǦͷͲǦ ǡǡ ͳͲͲǦ ȌǤ NEUMANN AND PRICE 17 Figure2.ReturnTimesfortheCurrent100ͲYearFloodAnomalyinNewYorkCityandFEMA’s CurrentViewof100ͲYearFlood Return Time for Current 100 Flood 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 y = 76.218e 30 -0.1019x 2 R = 0.9764 20 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Sea Level Rise (Inches) Credit: Applied Scienc e Associates, Inc .. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.. NECIA, 2007 (see: ww w.climatechoices .org/ne/). Source:ǤʹͲͲǤ NEUMANN AND PRICE 18 ͳͲͲǦǡ ͳͲͲǦǡʹͷ ǡ ͵ͲǡͷͲ ǡ ͳͲȋ͵ȌǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Figure3.ProjectedImpactsofClimateChangeonHydroelectricGenerationinWashington in2020and2040* * Ǧ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 19 ǤȋʹͲͲͺȌͳ͵ ǡǡ ǤʹͲͲͷ ǡ͵ͳͲ ǣȋͶȌǡȋȌǡȋͳͲȌǤǡͷǤǤ ǡ ͵ǡͳͲ ǣ ȋͳȌǡȋʹȌǡȋ͵ȌǡǦǤȋͻȌǡ ȋͳͲȌǤ ǤȋʹͲͲͺȌ ǡʹͲͲǡ ȋ Ȍǡ ǡǡǤ Ǣǡ Ǥ 3. Vulnerabilities ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ǤȋʹͲͲͺȌ Ǥǡ ǣ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǣ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ Transportation Infrastructure ǡ ǡǡǡǤ Ǥ ǡ Ǧ Ǥ ǣ Ǥ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ Ǥ —ǡ ǦǦ NEUMANN AND PRICE 20 — Ǥ ǡǤȋʹͲͲͺȌ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡǡǡǡ Ǥǡ ǡ ȋ Ȍ ̈́ʹǤ͵̈́ͶǤ͵ǡͻǤ͵ͳǤ ǡ ǤDz ǡdzǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ͳ͵ ʹͲ͵ͲǢ ǡDzǡdz ǤǦȋǡʹͲ͵ͲȌǡ ǡǡʹ ǡ Ǥǡǡ Ǧ—ʹͲͺͲǡ ͳͲͶͷ Ǥ Ǧ ǡ ǡ Ǥͺ ȋʹͲͲͺȌ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ x Differencesinplanninghorizons: ǡǦ ͵ͲǤǡ Ǧǯ Ǥ x Treatmentofuncertainty: Ǥǡ Ǥ 7 TheseestimatesoftheimpactofadaptationonreducingdamagestoAlaskaninfrastructureareroughlyequivalentwhether oneconsidersthefullscopeofinfrastructureevaluatedintheLarsenetal.(2008)studyoronlythoseresourcesinthe transportationsector. 8 Notethatoneprocessmodeledinthisstudythatleadstothereplacementofinfrastructureisasaresultofthedestructionof resourcesbyanextremeevent,whichinsomecasesmaybeinfluencedbyclimatechanges. NEUMANN AND PRICE 21 ǡ Ǥ Ǥ x Pooralignmentbetweenclimatechangeimpactsandtransportationorganizational arrangementsǣ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ x Resourceconstraints: ǤǤ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ x Resistancetochangeǣ ǡ Ǥ Ǥ x Lackofrelevantinformation: Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Energy Infrastructure Ǧ ǯ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥǡ ǡǤǤ Ǥ ǡ ȋȌ ȋȌ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡǤ ǡ Ǥ Ǧ Ǥ ǡ Ǥǡ ǡ Ǥǡ NEUMANN AND PRICE 22 ǡ Ǥ Ǧǡ Ǥǡ Ǥ ǡȋǤǤǡ Ȍǡǡ ȋ ǢǤǤ ʹͲͲȌǤ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǧ Ǥ ǤǡǤǤ ʹͷǡͲͲ ʹͲͲͻ ȋʹͲͲȌǤ Ǧ ǡ Ǥǡ ͻͷ Ǧǡ — Ǧ — ȋʹͲͲͷȌǤǡ ȋǤǤ ʹͲͲͲȌǤ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡǦ Ǥǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǥ x Expansionofrefinerycapacityinlessvulnerableareas: ǡ Ǧ Ǥ ȋȌ ǯ Ǥ x Stateandlocalmeasuresforelectricitytransmissionanddistribution: ʹͲͲͺǡǡ ǡ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤǡ Ǧ ǡ Ǥǡ NEUMANN AND PRICE 23 Ȃ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤǡ Ǥ ǡ ǦǦǦǦ ȋȌǡ Ǥ ǡ o Ǧ ǡ Ǣ o Ǣ o Ǥ x StrategicPetroleumReserve: Ǧ Ȁ Ǥǡ ʹͲͲͷǡ ͻ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤ x Hardencoastalareas: ǡ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥͻ ǡ ǦǤǤȋʹͲͲͺȌ ȋʹͲͲȌ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ Water, Sewer, and Communications Utilities ǡ ǦǤ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋȌǡ 9 Thesemeasuresaredescribedingreaterdetailinthediscussionbelowoncoastalandflooddefenseinfrastructure. NEUMANN AND PRICE 24 ͳͻͻͲ Ǧ ȋʹͲͲͲȌǤ x Leakdetectionǣͳͻͻͳͳͻͻͷǡ ǡͲͲͲ ʹǡ͵Ͷ͵Ͳ ȋȌǤ x Demandmanagement/conservationǣ ǡ Ǧ ͳͻͻͲǤ ͷǤ x Demandmanagementforindustrial,commercial,andinstitutionalusers: ǡ ǡȋȌǡ Ǥǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥǡ ǡ ȋǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ Ǧ ǡ Ǥ Ǧ ǡ Ǥ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ ǦǤ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǧ Ǧ Ǥ ǡ Ƭͳͻͻͻ ̈́ʹͷͲǡͲͲͲȋͳͻͻͻȌǤ ǡȋʹͲͲͷȌ ̈́ʹ͵ͲǡͲͲͲǤ Coastal and Flood Defense Infrastructure ǡ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 25 ͵Ͳ ǡ ǡ ȋǡ Ȍ ǦȋǤ ͳͻͻͻȌǤǦǡǦ ǡ ̈́ͳǡͲͲͲ Ǧ ǤǦ ǡ Ǧ Ȃall ȋʹͲͲȌǤ ǡ Ǥ Ǥǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ —ǡǡ Ǥ ͳǤʹ ȋǤͳͻͻͻȌǤ ǡ ǡ ǡ— — Ǥ Ǥȋ ʹͲͲȌǡ ʹͳͲͲͷͲǦ ̈́ʹͲͲȋ ʹͲͲͲ̈́ȌǢ ͳǦ̈́ͳǤͷǤǡ —ǡ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ ȋǡ ȌǤ ǡ ǡ ǡǡǤ : ǡ ͳͲǡ ǡ ͵ͷ͵ ǢʹͲǡ ͺͳͳͷ ȋʹͲͲȌǤ DzǦǦdzǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡǡ ǡ Ǧ Ǧǡ Ǥ ȋǤʹͲͲͶȌǡ ȋȌ ȋʹͲͲͲǢǤǤʹͲͲͺȌǤ NEUMANN AND PRICE 26 Ǥǡ ȋȌǤ ǡǡ ǡ Ǥǡǡ ǡǡ Ǧ Ǧ Ǥ ǡǡ ǦȋǤǤǡ Ȍǡ Ǥ ȋǤʹͲͲȌǤ 4. Opportunities for Building Adaptive Capacity Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǥ — ǡ ȋ Ȍ Ǥ ȋǡ ǤʹͲͲͶǡǤǤʹͲͲȌǤ ǡǡ Ȃ Ǧ Ǥ ǡ ǡǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡǡ ǤǦ ǡ Ǧǡ ǡǤ ǡ Ǥ Transportation ǤǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǣ ǡ ͵ͷ ʹͲͲǤ ǡ NEUMANN AND PRICE 27 ǡ Ǣ Ǥ ǡǡ Ǧ Ǥ ȋʹͲͲͺȌ Ǥ Ǥ x Operationalresponsesǣ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥ x Designstrategiesǣ ǡǡ Ǥ Ǥ o Ǥ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ o Ǥ Ǥ o ǡ Ǥ x Newinfrastructureinvestment,transportationplanning,andcontrolsonlanduse: ȋʹͲͲͺȌ ǡ Ǥ ǡǡ ǦǤ Ǧǡ ǦǤ ǡ Ǧ ǡ ǡ Ǥǡ Ǥ x Monitoringtechnologiesandnewmaterials: ǡ Ǥǡ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 28 x Data,models,anddecisionǦsupporttoolsǣȋǤǤǡ ǡ Ȍ Ȅ Ǧ ȄǤ x Newpartnershipsandorganizationalarrangementsǣ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡȋʹͲͲͺȌ Ǥ x ǡǡ ǡǡ Ǥ x Ǧ ǡ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ x Ǧ Ǥ Ǧ Ǥ x ǡǤǤ ȋȌǡǤǤ ǡ ǡ ǡǢ Ǧ Ǥ x Ǧ Ǥ Ǧ Ǥ x Ǥ x Ǥ x Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 29 x ǡ — —Ǥ x ǡ ǡ Ǥ x Ǧ ǡǦǢ ʹͲȂ͵ͲǢ ǡ ǡ ȂǦ Ǥ x Ǥǡ Ǥ Energy ǡ ʹͲͲͷ ǡ ǦǤ ǡ ǤǤ ǡ Ǧ Ǥǡ ǤǤ Ǥ ǡǤǤ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ Ǥ Ǥ ǡ ǯ Ǥ Ǥ ȋǤǤǡ ǡ ǡȌ Ǥ Ǧǡǡȋ ȌǤǡ ǡ NEUMANN AND PRICE 30 Ǧ ǡ Ǧ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍ Ǥ ǡǡǡ Ǧ Ǥ ǯ Ǥ ǡ ȋȌ ǡǡ ǡ ǡǢȋȌ Ǣȋ Ȍ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ Ǥǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍ ǦǦǡ Ǥ Water, Sewer, and Communications ǡ ǡǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǧ ǦǤ Ǧǡ ǡǤǡ ȋǤǤǡ Ǧ Ȍǡ Ǥǡ ǦǤ Ǧ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 31 Ǥ ȋȌ ǡȋȌ ǡȋ ȌǡȋȌ ǡȋȌ Ǥǡ ǡǡ ǤͳͲͲǡ ȋͳͻͻͶǡ ʹͲͲ͵Ȍ ȂͲǤʹͲȂͲǤͶͲǡͳͲ ʹͶ ǡ ȂͲǤͷͲȂͲǤͺͲǤ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤǡ Ǧ ǡ Ǧ ȋǤǤǡǡǡ ȌǤ ǡ Ǥ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ ͳͲȌǤ ǡ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ Coastal and Flood Defense ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǥǡ Ǥ ǡǦ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ ǣȋȌ ǡ ǢȋȌ ǡǡ ǡ Ǣ ȋ Ȍ ǡǡ Ǧ Ǧ Ǧ NEUMANN AND PRICE 32 ǦǡǦ Ǥ ǡǡ —ǡ Ǧ Ǥ Ǥǡ ǦǤ ǤȋʹͲͲͺȌǡ ǡ ǤǤ Ǥ Ǧ ǡ Ǥ ȂǦ ǡ Dzdz ȋʹͲͲͷȌǤ Dzǯdz ǡ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ȋǦ ͳͻͻͲȌǡ ǦǤ ǡǡ ǡǦǦǦ Ǥ Ǥ ǤǤ Ǥ ǡ ǡ Ǥ Ǧ ǡ Ǥ 5. Conclusions and Looking Forward: Steps toward Adaptation Policy ǡǡ ǡ Ǥ ͳ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 33 x Theneedforintegrationofplanning. ǡ ǡ Ǧ Ǥ ǡǡ ǡǦ Ǥ Ǥ ǡȋȌǦ DzdzǦ ǦǤ Ǥ ȋ Ȍǡ Ǥ ȋǤǤǡ Ȍǡ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤǡ Ǣ Ǥ x Theneedtoencourageinnovationintechnologyandupdatingofstandards. Ǥ ǡ ǡ ȋʹͲͲͺȌǤ ȋ ʹͲͲȂ ǡʹͲͲǡʹͲͲͷǢ ʹͲͲȌǤ x Theneedtotakebestadvantageofreplacementopportunities,includingextreme events. ǡ ǡ Ǥǡ Ǧ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ ǡ Ǥ x Ǥ ǤǤ Ǥ x — — Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 34 x Ǥ Ǧ Ǧ Ǥ x Ǥ ǡ Dzdz ǡ ǡ Ǥ x DzǦdz ǡ ǡ ȋǤǤǡ ȌǤ ǡ ȋʹͲͲͺǢʹͲͲͺȌǤ x interǦregionaltechnologytransfer ǡǤ Ǧ ǡǤ x ǦǤ ǡ Ǥ x Ǧ Ǥ ǡ ǡ ǡȋǡ ǡǤʹͲͲͺ ȌǤ Ǥ Ǥ NEUMANN AND PRICE 35 Table1.SummaryofFindings KeySensitivities ExistingAdaptive Capacity Enhancementsto AdaptiveCapacity Transportation Ͳ Road/rail/transitandcoastal extremeevents Ͳ Road/rail/transitinundation ͲPermafrost Ͳ IntegrationwithlandͲuse planning Ͳ Currentplanning, maintenanceand replacementsystem Ͳ AdjustmentofindustryͲ widestandards Ͳ Spatialanalogs Ͳ InundationoflowͲlyinggenerating capacity Ͳ Extremeevents(powerlines, refinerydamage,platform damage) Ͳ Coolingwateravailability Ͳ Reducedefficiencyofthermal units Ͳ Hydropoweroperation Ͳ Consistencyandavailabilityof windandsolar Ͳ StrategicPetroleum Reserve Ͳ LowͲornoͲwatercooling techniques Ͳ Undergroundingpower lines Ͳ Capacityexpansion Ͳ Geographicshiftof capacitytosaferareas Ͳ Updatedbuilding standards Ͳ Furtherintegrationwith landͲuseplanning Ͳ Establishingfurther redundanciesand multimodal transportation capabilities Ͳ Updatedriskanalysisto ensurestablesupply Ͳ ExpansionofStrategic PetroleumReserve Ͳ Morewidespreadstorm planning Ͳ Integrationofimpacts andmitigationplanning Ͳ Reducedwatersupplyinsome areas Ͳ Precipitationandsaltwater intrusion Ͳ Overloadingofsewersystemsdue tomorefrequentandsevere storms Ͳ Damagetophonelinesandcell towersfromextremeevents Ͳ Currentmaintenanceand replacementsystemsfor sewer Ͳ Undergroundingof phonelines Ͳ Waterdemand management(e.g., pricingandoutreach) Ͳ AddressingunaccountedͲ forwater Ͳ Integrationand consolidationofwater supplysystems Ͳ Coastalprotection projects(e.g.,seawalls andbeachnourishment) Ͳ Insurance Ͳ LandͲuseplanning Energy Water/Sewer/ Telecomm Coastal Ͳ InundationoflowͲlyingproperty Ͳ Extremeeventsdamagingor floodingportandurbanareas NEUMANN AND PRICE Ͳ Updateddesign standards Ͳ Facilitationofintegration andconsolidationof watersupplies Ͳ Increasedpricingto encourageconservation Ͳ Clarificationof responsibilityforrisk Ͳ Monitoring Ͳ Riskcommunication 36 References ǡǤʹͲͲǤ ǣ ǤSmartGrowthandClimateChangeǡǤ ǡǣǡʹͲȂʹͶʹǤ ǤʹͲͲͷǤIssuesandEnvironmentalImpactsAssociatedwithOnceǦ throughCoolingatCalifornia’sCoastalPowerPlantsǤ ǡǣ Ǥ ǤʹͲͲͷǤTheRegulatoryandStandardsLandscapeofCanada’sPublic InfrastructureǤǡǣ Ǥ ———ǤʹͲͲǤTheRoleofStandardsinAdaptingCanada’sInfrastructuretotheImpactsofClimate ChangeǤǡǣ Ǥ ———ǤʹͲͲǤCSAinClimateChange:ABackgroundReportǤͳǤǡǣ Ǥ ———ǤʹͲͲǤNationalSurveyofCanada’sInfrastructureEngineersaboutClimateChangeǤ ǡǣ Ǥ ———ǤʹͲͲ ǤClimateChangeandInfrastructureEngineering:MovingTowardsaNewCurriculumǤ ǡǣ Ǥ ǡǤǤǡǤǤǡǤǡǤǤǡǤǤǡ ǤʹͲͲͷǤ ClimateImpactsinWashington’sHydropower,WaterSupply,Forests,Fish,andAgricultureǤ ǡǤǡǣ ǡ ǡ ǡ ǡǤ ȋ ȌǤʹͲͲǤInfrastructureand ClimateChangeRiskAssessmentforVictoriaǤǡǣǤ , C., R. 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