Preparing for a Changing Climate
Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Chapter 1.
Introduction
Chapter 2.
Responding to Climate Change
Chapter 3.
Observed Trends and Future Projections
Chapter 4.
Human Health
Chapter 5.
Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Chapter 6.
Ocean and Coastlines
Chapter 7.
Water Resources
Chapter 8.
Agriculture
Chapter 9.
Forests
Chapter 10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Chapter 11. Research and Monitoring
Chapter 12. Climate Communication, Public Awareness, and Engagement
Glossary and Acronyms
Bibliography
Photo Credits
Appendix A. Advisory Group Members
Appendix B. Advisory Group Final Reports and Recommendations
Appendix C. Priority Response Strategies and Actions
Appendix D. Summary of Projected Changes in Major Drivers
of Pacific Northwest Climate Change Impacts
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Figures and Tables
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Table 1.
Table 2.
How climate change can harm human health
Effects of climate change across salmon life cycle
Contributors to ocean acidification
Projected average monthly streamflow
2040 Projected climate change impact on summer flows
Maps of the ratio of the 100-year flood magnitude
Projected sea level rise estimates for Washington
Projected changes in hydropower generation
and energy demand
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Acknowledgments
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Primary Authors
Hedia Adelsman, Washington Department of Ecology
Joanna Ekrem, Washington Department of Ecology
Contributing Authors
Lara Whitely Binder, Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington
Kirk Cook, Washington State Department of Agriculture
Kelly Cooper, Washington State Department of Health
Lynn M. Helbrecht, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
Rachael Jamison, Washington State Department of Natural Resources
Joyce Phillips, Washington State Department of Commerce
Paul Pickett, Washington Department of Ecology
Carol Lee Roalkvam, Washington State Department of Transportation
Sandy Salisbury, Washington State Department of Transportation
Dan Siemann, National Wildlife Federation, Pacific Region
Pene Speaks, Washington State Department of Natural Resources
Advisory Groups
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Editing and Production
Lynne Geller, Department of Ecology
Christy Shelton and Julie Stein, Cascadia Consulting Group
Photographs were provided by a number of individuals and departments. See Photo Credits
on page 200 for more information.
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Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
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Washington’s Changing Climate and Risks
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Human health
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Ecosystems, species, and habitats
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Ocean and coastlines
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Water resources
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Infrastructure and the built environment
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Research and monitoring
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Climate communication, public awareness, and engagement
Executive Summary
Moving Forward
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Guiding principles
for Washington’s
climate change
response strategy:
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Use best-available science.
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Build on principles
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Increase our resilience
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Ensure integrated
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mutual benefits and avoid
unintended consequences.
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Emphasize collaboration and
strengthen partnerships.
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Recognize the impacts of
decisions made by other
regions and countries.
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12
1. Introduction
Response Strategy Outline
Chapter 2 RIWKLVUHVSRQVHVWUDWHJ\LGHQWL¿HVNH\FOLPDWHULVNVDQGUHFRPPHQGVDVHWRISULRULW\
VWUDWHJLHV WR SUHSDUH IRU WKH LPSDFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH 7KH FKDSWHU RXWOLQHV VWHSV IRU DJHQFLHV
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Chapter 3 VXPPDUL]HV WKH REVHUYHG DQG SURMHFWHG FKDQJHV LQ FOLPDWH DQG WKH NH\ ULVNV IRU
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Chapter 4.
Human Health
Chapter 5.
Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Chapter 6.
Ocean and Coastlines
Chapter 7.
Water Resources
Chapter 8.
Agriculture
Chapter 9.
Forests
Chapter 10.
Infrastructure and the Built Environment
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13
14
2. Responding to Climate Change
15
16
2. Responding to Climate Change
2. Responding to Climate Change
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17
2. Responding to Climate Change
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2. Responding to Climate Change
Priority Response Strategies
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21
2. Responding to Climate Change
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Incorporate climate change realities into agency decisionmaking. 3DVW K\GURORJLFDO GDWD DUH DQ XQUHOLDEOH JXLGH WR SURMHFW
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22
2. Responding to Climate Change
5. Safeguard fish and wildlife and
protect critical ecosystem services that
support human and natural systems.
Protect and restore habitat and improve the ability of species
to migrate to more suitable habitat as the climate shifts
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Protect sensitive and vulnerable species and their habitats. &OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOOLQFUHDVH
WKHVWUHVVRQVDOPRQDQGRWKHUFXOWXUDOO\LPSRUWDQWVSHFLHVWKDWDUHDOUHDG\VHQVLWLYHRUYXOQHUDEOH
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Reduce existing stresses on fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems. )LVKZLOGOLIHSODQWV
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6. Reduce the vulnerability of coastal
communities, habitat, and species.
Protect people, property, and infrastructure from coastal
hazards and avoid new development in highly vulnerable
areas.5LVLQJVHDOHYHOVPRUHH[WUHPHUDLQIDOODQGH[FHVVLYHUXQRIIPD\
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23
2. Responding to Climate Change
Prevent coastal habitat degradation and destruction and seek opportunities for
upland habitat creation as sea levels rise. 5LVLQJVHDOHYHOVZLOOFDXVHDORVVRIYDOXDEOH
FRDVWDO KDELWDWV $V FRDVWDO ÀRRG ULVN LQFUHDVHV ODQGRZQHUV VKRXOG XVH QDWXUDO DSSURDFKHV WR
UHGXFHÀRRGULVNVZLWKRXWKDUPLQJVSHFLHVRUKDELWDW3ROLFLHVDQGLQFHQWLYHVVKRXOGEHGHYHORSHG
DW WKH VWDWH RU ORFDO OHYHO WR UHGXFH KDELWDW GHJUDGDWLRQ DQG GHVWUXFWLRQ IURP KDUG DUPRULQJ RI
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DZD\IURPKD]DUGRXVFRDVWDODUHDVWRSUHYHQWFRVWO\ÀRRGLQJDQGWRDOORZFRDVWDOHFRV\VWHPVWR
EHFUHDWHGLQQHZO\LQXQGDWHGDUHDV
Reduce shellfish vulnerability to ocean acidification by reducing land-based
contributions of carbon and polluted runoff to the marine environment. $FLGL¿FDWLRQ
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FDQRQO\EHVORZHGE\UHGXFLQJFDUERQHPLVVLRQVWKHSDFHRIDFLGL¿FDWLRQLQVRPHSDUWVRI3XJHW
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ODQGEDVHGFDUERQLQWKHZDWHUV
7. Support the efforts of local
communities and strengthen capacity
to respond and engage the public.
Identify existing and new funding mechanisms to
support adaptation work at the local level. ,QVRPHFDVHV
FOLPDWHDGDSWDWLRQFDQEHLQWHJUDWHGLQWRH[LVWLQJSURJUDPVZLWK
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RI PDNLQJ FKDQJHV DQG DFWLYHO\ PDQDJLQJ QDWXUDO DQG EXLOW
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Develop an institutional structure to improve coordination and support an
integrated approach.6XFFHVVIXOFOLPDWHFKDQJHDGDSWDWLRQFDQQRWEHDFFRPSOLVKHGE\DVLQJOH
DJHQF\ RU RUJDQL]DWLRQ $Q HIIHFWLYH VWUXFWXUH LV QHHGHG WR VXSSRUW FURVVDJHQF\ FROODERUDWLRQ
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24
2. Responding to Climate Change
Support information-gathering on climate impacts and ensure scientific
information is easily accessible.8QGHUVWDQGLQJRIFOLPDWHLPSDFWVDQGUHVSRQVHVLVJURZLQJ
UDSLGO\DQGLVFRQWLQXDOO\EHLQJH[SDQGHG7UDFNLQJFOLPDWHUHODWHGWUHQGVVXFKDVVHDOHYHOULVH
VHYHUHVWRUPVDQGSHVWDQGGLVHDVHLQYDVLRQVFDQKHOSWKHVWDWHSUHSDUHDQGUHVSRQGZLWKWKHOHDVW
FRVWDQGGLVUXSWLRQ7RROVQHHGWREHGHYHORSHGWRPDNHWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQDFFHVVLEOHDQGXVHIXOWR
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Engage the public in determining appropriate responses to climate change. 7KH
VWDWHPXVWSURYLGHOHDGHUVKLSWRHQVXUHWKDWFRPPXQLWLHVEXVLQHVVHVVFKRROVDQGWKHSXEOLFKDYH
DFFXUDWH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG D IRUXP WR FRQVLGHU FOLPDWH LPSDFWV DQG UHVSRQVHV $JHQFLHV VKRXOG
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25
2. Responding to Climate Change
State Agency Climate Adaptation Planning
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(GXFDWHDJHQF\OHDGHUVKLSDQGVWDIIRQFOLPDWHLPSDFWVDQGDVVHVVKRZFOLPDWHFKDQJHZLOO
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KLJKZD\VIRUHVWVDJULFXOWXUDODQGKDELWDWODQGVZDWHUUHVRXUFHVDQGEXLOGLQJV
(YDOXDWHDJHQF\RSHUDWLRQVDQGSURJUDPVLQFOXGLQJH[LVWLQJHQDEOLQJOHJLVODWLRQWKURXJKD
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26
2. Responding to Climate Change
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Barriers Limiting an Effective Response to Climate Change
1. Inadequate information and experience.
ƒ Outdated assumptions that future conditions will vary within historic bounds.
ƒ Limited knowledge and experience in dealing with climate-related risks.
ƒ Limited knowledge of effective response strategies.
ƒ Lack of tools, maps, and guidance for communities to identify risks,
assess vulnerability, and account for ranges of variability.
ƒ Limited stakeholder awareness and engagement.
2. Inadequate institutional support for adaptation.
ƒ Short-term perspectives and tendency to focus on near-term risks and benefits.
ƒ Conflicting mandates and incentives.
ƒ Fragmented decision-making and lack of coordination across
levels of government and between governments.
ƒ Legal barriers.
3. Lack of resources.
ƒ Insufficient financial resources.
ƒ Lack of human resources.
ƒ Limited information on costs and benefits of climate change response strategies.
4. Public beliefs and attitudes.
ƒ Skepticism about the science of climate change.
ƒ Lack of understanding of the difference between weather and climate.
ƒ Climate science is sometimes described in abstract technical terms that do not resonate.
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Lack of awareness of the near- and long-term risks of climate change and the benefits of acting.
27
2. Responding to Climate Change
Current Legal Framework for Climate
Change Adaptation
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State Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan
and the State Hazard Mitigation Plan.5&:UHTXLUHV
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Growth Management Act.7KH*URZWK0DQDJHPHQW$FW¶V*0$SROLF\IRXQGDWLRQWRFRQWURO
VSUDZOSURWHFWRXULQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWVDQGFRQVHUYHDQGSURWHFWRXUQDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQW
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$FWIRFXVHVRQWKUHHEDVLFSROLF\DUHDVVKRUHOLQHXVHHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQDQGSXEOLFDFFHVV
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28
2. Responding to Climate Change
Federal climate adaptation initiatives
In 2009, the Obama Administration convened the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task
Force to develop recommendations on how federal policies, programs, and planning efforts
can better prepare the United States for climate change. The Task Force released a set of
recommended actions in support of a national climate change adaptation strategy in 2010, and
federal agencies are currently working to implement several cross-cutting national strategies:
ƒ
ƒ
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National Action Plan for managing freshwater resources in a changing climate.
National Ocean Policy Implementation Plan, which includes a series of actions to
address resiliency and adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification.
National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy.
More information on federal implementation of the national adaptation strategy is available from:
www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation/evolving-components
Federal agencies are also developing agency-specific plans to strengthen existing adaptation efforts and
establish long-term priorities to respond to the challenges and opportunities that climate change poses to their
missions, operations, and programs. By June 2012, under Executive Order 13514, agencies will submit their climate
adaptation plans to the White House Council on Environmental Quality and the Office of Management and Budget.
For more information, see the Agency Climate Change Adaptation Planning section on CEQ’s website:
www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation
For more information and background on the U.S. response to climate change, see the
America’s Climate Choices reports developed by the National Academy of Sciences:
http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/
29
2. Responding to Climate Change
Coastal Zone Management Act. 7KH &RDVWDO =RQH
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Watershed Planning Act. ,Q WKH :DVKLQJWRQ 6WDWH
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State Environmental Policy Act. 7KH6WDWH(QYLURQPHQWDO
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30
2. Responding to Climate Change
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Water resources laws.6HYHUDOVWDWHZDWHUODZVDQGSURJUDPV
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Washington Wildlife and Recreation Program
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Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program
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Forest Legacy Program
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Wetland Reserve Program
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Grassland Reserve Program
31
32
3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
33
34
3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
3. Observed Trends and Future
Projections
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reduced snowfall.
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More frequent and severe
extreme weather events.
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Rising sea levels.
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Warmer water temperatures.
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Increasing frequency and
severity of wildfires.
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severity of flooding.
Scientific projections of future
climate in the Pacific Northwest
The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment
reported scientific projections of future climate for
the Pacific Northwest and assessed the potential
consequences for eight key ecological and economic
sectors. The assessment projects future climate
for the Pacific Northwest using two scenarios
of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The scenarios provide plausible examples of
what might happen given different assumptions
about future technology, population growth,
economic development, and other factors affecting
greenhouse gas emissions. Scenarios can help
us understand the likely range of future impacts
and our vulnerability to climate change. The “A1B” scenario represents a moderate
GHG emissions scenario where global GHG
emissions rise sharply until mid-century and
slowly decline to the end of the century.
The “B1” scenario reflects a low emissions
scenario where global GHG emissions rise
slowly until mid-century and more rapidly
decline to the end of the century. GHG emissions are currently rising faster than
what is projected in the A1B or B1 scenarios.
This suggests that if current trends continue,
climate impacts could be more severe than
what is projected for the two scenarios.
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/
ia/waccia.shtml#report
35
3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
1
Increasing carbon dioxide
levels
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36
3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
Future projections: $YHUDJH DQQXDO WHPSHUDWXUH LQ WKH 1RUWKZHVW LV SURMHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH
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3.2°F by the 2040s (range of 1.6 to 5.2°F).
5.3°F by the 2080s (range of 2.8 to 9.7°F).17
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3
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3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
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38
3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
4
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may increase
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the atmosphere that
deliver large masses
of warm, moist air,
transporting large
amounts of water
vapor across the Pacific
Ocean and elsewhere.
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39
3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
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5
Sea levels are rising, but the relative
effect varies by location
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3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
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6
Marine waters are becoming
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3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
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3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
8
Wildfires are increasing
in frequency and severity
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43
3. Observed Trends and Future Projections
9
Floods are increasing
in frequency and severity
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4. Human Health
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46
4. Human Health
4. Human Health
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Extreme temperatures, more frequent wildfires, and other
severe weather events will likely increase the risks of heatrelated illness, respiratory disease, and vector-borne diseases.
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water supply and water quality conditions.
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Changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems,
agriculture, and the economy also indirectly expose humans
to climate change impacts.
Vector: An organism
or vehicle that carries
pathogens from one
host to another.
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Figure 1. How climate change can harm human health65
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4. Human Health
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48
4. Human Health
Impacts of Climate Change on
Human Health
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The risk of illness and death from extreme heat will increase.
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Asthma and respiratory problems will increase due to
increasing levels of smog (ground-level ozone) and
potential increases in other air pollutants.
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Diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects will
increase.
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Illness, injury, and mental health problems from storms will
increase.
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could decline.
1
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from heat waves
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4. Human Health
2
Ground-level ozone, or smog,
is an air pollutant with harmful
effects. Exposure to smog is linked
to premature death, asthma,
bronchitis, heart attack, and other
cardiopulmonary problems.
Air quality and respiratory
and cardiovascular disease
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Tiny Particles in the Air:
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When you look up at the sky,
you are looking at more than
just air. Billions of tiny bits of
solid and liquid are floating
in the atmosphere. Those tiny
floating particles are called
aerosols or particulates.
The aerosols that are from air
pollution are hazardous to human
health. When these small particles
go deep into a person’s lungs,
it can make him or her very ill.
Infectious
disease
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4. Human Health
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4. Human Health
4
Injury and mental
health problems
from severe storms
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Post-traumatic stress disorder.
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Depression.
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According to the National Intelligence
Council, global climate change will
have wide-ranging implications for U.S.
national security interests in the coming
decades. Climate change could increase
instability and conflict in vulnerable
regions as a result of:
ƒ
Sleep difficulties.
Increasing drought and
conflicts over water.
ƒ
Social avoidance.
Declining food security.
ƒ
ƒ
Increased health problems.
ƒ
Drug or alcohol abuse.
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Increased displacement from
flooding and rising sea levels.
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Impacts of climate change
on U.S. national security
ƒ
Geographic displacement.
ƒ
Unemployment.
ƒ
Loss of property.
ƒ
Death or injury of loved ones.
These climate-driven impacts will worsen
existing problems, such as poverty, social
tensions, environmental degradation,
and weakening of national governments.
For more information:
www.dni.gov/nic/special_
climate2030.html
4. Human Health
5
Drinking water supply
and water quality
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Vulnerable populations will bear the burden
For projected impacts of climate change on human health, the most vulnerable populations
are children, the elderly, and people with existing respiratory, cardiovascular, or other chronic
diseases.76 People who work or exercise outdoors are also more exposed to the effects of heat.
Poor and disadvantaged people are particularly at risk from the impacts of climate change. Lowincome individuals, people of color, and those that speak English as a second language often
experience higher rates of chronic stress and have poorer health outcomes, regardless of the
stressor. These individuals also may experience:
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Poorer existing health conditions.
More barriers to health care.
Unstable employment.
Lower-quality housing.
In addition, the poor are more likely to:
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Have little or no access to healthy food.
Have fewer transportation options.
Live in neighborhoods with less social and financial capital, higher crime rates, and
more safety concerns.
As a result, the impacts of climate change may further reduce the ability and capacity of lowincome individuals and communities to adapt and to improve their quality of life.
86(3$D
53
4. Human Health
Recommended Adaptation
Strategies and Actions—Human
Health
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Help communities’ most vulnerable populations.
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Communicate the health impacts of climate change.
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Enhance public readiness to take actions.
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Prioritize and implement operational changes that allow
public agencies and communities to prepare for climate
change.
4. Human Health
Strategy A-1. Protect the communities that are
most vulnerable to impacts of climate change.
Actions:
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55
4. Human Health
Strategy A-2. Enhance surveillance and
reporting systems to monitor and support
early detection of climate-related risks
and swift responses to emerging health
threats associated with climate change.
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Zoonotic disease (diseases transmitted from animals to humans).
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Air quality monitoring.
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Notifiable conditions, a public health surveillance of those conditions
that legally require reporting to local and state health departments.
Actions:
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56
4. Human Health
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57
4. Human Health
Strategy A-3. Incorporate climate
adaptation strategies into the
Department of Health’s Agenda for
Change, with a focus on prevention,
early detection, and swift responses
to protect people from diseases
and other health threats caused by
changing climate conditions.77
Actions:
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4. Human Health
Strategy A-4. Engage
and motivate citizens and
organizations to take actions to
build resilient communities.
Actions:
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4. Human Health
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60
4. Human Health
Strategy A-5. Build capacity and support to safeguard
human health in the face of climate change.
Actions:
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61
62
5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
63
64
5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
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5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Ecosystem Products and Services
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Habitat in marine and coastal ecosystems in Washington
State sustains commercial and recreational fishing that
directly and indirectly supported over 16,000 jobs and
$540 million in personal income in 2006.78
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Washington’s biodiversity supported hunting, fishing, and
wildlife viewing activities that added nearly $3.1 billion to
Washington’s economy in 2006.79
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Sound watershed is conservatively estimated to range
between $9.7 billion and $83 billion.80
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5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Impacts of Climate Change on
Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
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Declines in species populations and loss of biodiversity.
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5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Recommended Adaptation Strategies and
Actions—Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
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Strategy B-1. Conserve habitat necessary to support
healthy fish, wildlife, and plant populations and
ecosystem functions in a changing climate, and protect
connectivity areas between critical habitats to allow the
movement of species in response to climate change.
Actions:
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5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
The Western Governors’ Wildlife Corridors Initiative: Multistate collaboration to protect migration corridors
In 2007, the Western Governors’ Association (WGA) launched the Wildlife Corridors Initiative as part
of its focus on “Protecting Wildlife Migration Corridors and Crucial Wildlife Habitat in the West.” The
Initiative is a multi-state, collaborative effort to improve knowledge and management of wildlife
corridors and crucial habitat. Its main objective is to develop policies and tools to help states integrate
important wildlife corridor and crucial habitat values proactively into planning decisions, promote
best practices for development, and reduce harmful impacts on wildlife. A 2008 report presents
several recommendations, including establishing a regional climate change adaptation information
clearinghouse relevant to wildlife corridors and crucial habitat. The clearinghouse should include
data and analysis tools, visualization and interactive mapping tools, and state-of-the-art tools to
integrate climate predictions with current and future wildlife corridors and crucial habitat.
The clearinghouse will ensure that decision makers can easily obtain the
best and most up-to-date scientific and policy information.
www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/wildlife08.pdf
73
5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
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Climate refugia are areas where climate
change is likely to occur more slowly or
to a lesser extent than other areas, due
to physical landscape features, such as
north-facing slopes, valleys or other
low areas that act as sinks for cold air, or
streams fed by deep coldwater springs.
These areas provide refuge to species
under stress from climate change.
Wildlife habitat connectivity
through a climate lens
The Washington Wildlife Habitat
Connectivity Working Group is a
science-based partnership of land and
natural resource management agencies,
organizations, tribes, and universities.
The Washington Department of Fish
and Wildlife and the Washington State
Department of Transportation colead the working group. The group is
conducting detailed analyses aimed
at identifying habitat and linkage
areas that will most likely continue
to provide connectivity as climate
changes and to accommodate climatedriven shifts in species ranges.
The first products addressing habitat
connectivity and climate change can be
found on the Working Group website.
www.waconnected.org/
climate-change-analysis
74
5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Strategy B-2. Reduce non-climate
stressors to help fish, wildlife, plants,
and ecosystems be more resilient
to the effects of climate change.
Actions:
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Changes in hunting and
fishing opportunities
In 2008, the Theodore Roosevelt
Conservation Partnership (TRCP)
and a number of other national
hunting and fishing groups
produced a successful publication,
Seasons’ End: Global Warming’s
Threat to Hunting and Fishing,
detailing the predicted impacts
of global climate change in the
habitat and distribution of fish
and wildlife in the United States.
In the 2010 sequel, Beyond
Seasons’ End: A Path Forward
for Fish and Wildlife in the
Era of Climate Change, the
TRCP and its partners provide
recommendations to address
the effects of climate change.
Since the publication of these
reports, the need for adaptation
strategies to help fish and wildlife
cope with our changing climate
has become increasingly clear.
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Mitigation banking is
the restoration, creation,
enhancement, or preservation
of a wetland, stream, or habitat
conservation area, for the purpose
of providing compensation for
unavoidable impacts to ecosystem
resources that a proposed
project would adversely affect.
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75
5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Strategy B-3. Manage
species and habitats to
protect ecosystem functions
and provide sustainable
cultural, recreational,
and commercial use in
a changing climate.
Actions:
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76
Assessing the Vulnerability
of Species and Ecosystems to
Projected Future Climate Change
in the Pacific Northwest
The Pacific Northwest Vulnerability Assessment
project is designed to assist conservation and
natural resource managers in understanding
the potential effects of climate change on the
species and ecosystems they manage. The
project has six specific objectives:
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Downscale future climate simulations
for the Pacific Northwest.
ƒ
Simulate potential future vegetation and
habitat changes using vegetation models.
ƒ
Model potential shifts in the distributions
of 12 or more focal animal species
selected based on discussions with
land managers from the region.
ƒ
Assess the vulnerabilities of species,
ecosystems, and managed lands
to projected changes in climate,
vegetation, and species distributions.
ƒ
Summarize uncertainties in the
simulated future climate, vegetation,
and species distribution changes.
ƒ
Work with managers to incorporate
research results into management plans.
An important component of this project
involves collaborations with managers,
scientists, and decision makers to
integrate the research results into
management and conservation plans,
such as state wildlife action plans.
http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/info/nccwsc/
vulnerability/index.html
5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Strategy B-4. Integrate climate adaptation
considerations for species and ecosystems
into natural resource and conservation
planning, land use and infrastructure
planning, and resource allocation
and public investment initiatives.
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5. Ecosystems, Species, and Habitats
Strategy B-5. Build capacity and support for the adoption of
response strategies that help protect and restore ecosystem
function and services at risk from climate change.
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6. Ocean and Coastlines
Impacts of Climate Change on Ocean and Coastlines
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Sea level rise and storm surge will increase the frequency and severity of flooding, erosion, and
seawater intrusion—thus increasing risks to vulnerable communities, infrastructure, and coastal
ecosystems.
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Increased ocean acidity will affect marine ecosystems and Washington’s commercial shellfish
industry.97
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blooms and cause harmful effects to humans and animals.98
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Together, these impacts will have profound effects on Washington’s coastal and marine areas and
the resources they provide to our communities, wildlife, economy, and our way of life.
1
Sea level
rise
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Table 1. Projected sea level rise estimates for Washington
Source: Mote et al. (2008).
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Flooding and damage
to coastal communities
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shorelines
Many shorelines
have been hardened
with concrete, steel,
gabions, or armor stone
to prevent erosion.
Such reinforcement
usually results in the
elimination of shoreline
vegetation and cover
that is important to fish
and other wildlife.
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6. Ocean and Coastlines
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Coastal roads will be subject to more frequent closures
and more frequent repairs.
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Shoreline parks will be subject to increased damages and
closures. Access to the water and to natural shorelines
will become more difficult as water levels rise and people
construct hardened shorelines in response.
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Intrusion of seawater could damage equipment and strain
the capacity of wastewater and stormwater systems.
Backflow of water through stormwater pipes could cause
localized flooding in low-lying areas. Drainage of lowlying areas will become more difficult, and stormwater
management may require installation of tide gates, control
works, and pump systems.
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Higher water tables and increased flood events may
increase corrosion of underground utilities.
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by changes to water tables and increased flooding,
spreading contaminants to Puget Sound and coastal
marine waters.
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Large oil handling facilities constructed their tanks,
containment areas, and pipeline conveyance systems
based on current water levels. Changes to the water
level could alter the stability of the ground or the flow
of groundwater, increasing the chance of a spill reaching
Washington waters.
ƒ
Increasing storm severity off the Pacific Northwest coast
could increase the risk of vessel incidents and oil spills.
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Puget Sound river deltas will be more vulnerable to longerduration flooding, high water tables, and increased salinity,
which could affect coastal agriculture and restoration
projects.
6. Ocean and Coastlines
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Loss of two-thirds of the low tidal areas in Grays Harbor and Willapa Bay.
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Loss of 11 to 56 percent of freshwater tidal marsh in Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay, and
Puget Sound.
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Loss of 40 percent of freshwater tidal areas in Whatcom, Skagit Bay, and Snohomish.104
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6. Ocean and Coastlines
6
Saltwater intrusion into
coastal aquifers and rivers
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7
Increasing ocean
acidity
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Ocean acidification
and climate change
Ocean acidification is
related to but distinct from
climate change, though
they share a common
cause—increasing carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere.
Climate change
encompasses the effects
associated with changes
in the Earth’s temperature,
which cause global
warming and changes
in weather patterns.
Ocean acidification refers
to the lowering of ocean
pH resulting from its
increased absorption
of carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere. Ocean
acidification does not
include the warming
of the ocean.
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6. Ocean and Coastlines
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Shellfish aquaculture.
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Commercial and tribal harvesting of wild shellfish resource.
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Important fish species that use marine plankton as a vital food source.
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Figure 3. Contributors to ocean acidificationϭϬϳ
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6. Ocean and Coastlines
8
Algae blooms and
coastal hypoxia
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Hypoxia: low oxygen
concentration
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6. Ocean and Coastlines
Recommended Adaptation Strategies and
Actions—Ocean and Coastlines
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90
ƒ
Limiting new development in highly vulnerable areas.
ƒ
Protecting the shoreline from rising sea levels using
green or “soft” alternatives to traditional “hard” shore
armoring, seawalls, and dikes.
ƒ
Accommodating rising sea levels through engineering
and construction practices or raising the height of piers
or buildings.
ƒ
Managing retreat from highly vulnerable sites.
ƒ
Restoring and maintaining wetlands, preserving
sediment transport processes, and preserving habitat
for vulnerable species.
ƒ
Enhancing monitoring and research of ocean chemistry
changes and effects on marine ecosystems.
Managed retreat:
Managed retreat is the
deliberate process of altering
barriers or other defenses to
allow flooding of a presently
defended area. Such efforts
can reduce both coastal
flooding and erosion.
Managing this flooding
process helps to reduce risk
and negative impacts.
6. Ocean and Coastlines
Strategy C-1. Lead by example by
developing a state framework to guide
decision-making and protect people, assets,
and natural areas from coastal hazards.
Actions:
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XVH VKRUHOLQH PDQDJHPHQW DQG RWKHU SURJUDPV WR HIIHFWLYHO\
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91
6. Ocean and Coastlines
Strategy C-2. Avoid development
in highly vulnerable areas and
promote sustainable development in
appropriate, less vulnerable areas.
Actions:
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92
Swinomish Climate
Change Initiative
In 2008, the Swinomish Indian
Tribal Community started work
on a landmark two-year Climate
Change Initiative to study the
impacts of climate change
on the resources, assets, and
community of the Swinomish
Indian Reservation and to
develop recommended actions
to adapt to projected impacts.
With expert assistance from
scientists at the University of
Washington Climate Impacts
Group, in 2009 the Tribe issued
the Impact Assessment Technical
Report, an assessment of
projected impacts. The report
identified potential impacts
from sea level rise and storm
surge on infrastructure and
tribal land. Detailed maps were
developed highlighting coastal
inundation risk zones on tribal
lands and in neighboring areas.
In 2010, the Swinomish published
the Climate Adaptation Action
Plan outlining actions to
help build a climate-resilient
community that can meet the
challenges of anticipated climate
impacts in the years to come.
www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_
change/climate_main.html
6. Ocean and Coastlines
Strategy C-3. Accelerate efforts
to protect and restore nearshore
habitat and natural processes.
Actions:
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QDWXUDO UHVLOLHQF\ DQG SURWHFW YXOQHUDEOH FRPPXQLWLHV ,GHQWLI\
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93
6. Ocean and Coastlines
Strategy C-4. Build local capacity to
respond to coastal climate impacts by
providing tools to assess vulnerability
and advancing research, monitoring,
and engagement efforts.
Actions:
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94
6. Ocean and Coastlines
Washington’s Coastal Planning
for Climate Change Training
The Coastal Training Program’s Planning for
Climate Change course is designed for planners
to increase awareness about climate impacts
to Pacific Northwest shorelines and specific
action steps to prepare for climate change.
The Coastal Training Program provides
practical, science-based training to
professionals who make decisions about
coastal management in Washington
State. The program is administered
through the Padilla Bay National Estuarine
Research Reserve, which is part of the
Department of Ecology and NOAA.
www.coastaltraining-wa.com
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95
6. Ocean and Coastlines
Strategy C-5. Enhance our
understanding and monitoring
of ocean acidification (pH)
in Puget Sound and coastal
waters as well as our ability to
adapt to and mitigate effects
of seawater acidity on shellfish,
other marine organisms,
and marine ecosystems.
Actions:
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96
Washington Shellfish Initiative
In December 2011, Washington became the
first state in the nation to have the Governor
endorse an agreement among federal and
state government, tribes, and the shellfish
industry to respond and expand Washington’s
shellfish resources, promote clean-water
commerce, and create family-wage jobs.
The agreement builds on the National
Shellfish Initiative created by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) to stimulate coastal economies
and improve the health of ailing estuaries
through increasing commercial shellfish
production and native shellfish populations
and habitats in our nation’s waters.
As a part of the Washington Shellfish Initiative,
and with strong support from the NOAA
administrator and scientists, Governor Gregoire
has convened a Blue Ribbon Panel on Ocean
Acidification of leading tribal, local, state, and
federal policymakers; scientific experts; public
opinion leaders; and industry representatives.
For more information:
www.ecy.wa.gov/water/marine/
oceanacidification.html
6. Ocean and Coastlines
NANOOS: Creating customized
ocean information and tools
The Northwest Association of Networked
Ocean Observing Systems (NANOOS) is a
partnership of federal and state agencies,
local governments, tribes, nongovernmental
organizations, industry, and educational
institutions involved in a wide range of
decisions about our oceans and estuaries.
NANOOS is the regional association of the
national Integrated Ocean Observing System
(IOOS) in the Pacific Northwest, primarily
Washington and Oregon. The system operates
several buoys in the Puget Sound monitoring
hypoxia (low oxygen concentrations), algae
blooms (indicated by chlorophyll), and climate
effects (especially on temperature, salinity,
and underwater sunlight penetration).
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A pilot project between NANOOS and the
National Estuarine Research Reserve System
is providing real-time water quality data for
shellfish growers in the Pacific Northwest,
which can help oyster growers determine
whether oysters have enough oxygen.
www.nanoos.org
97
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7. Water Resources
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100
7. Water Resources
7. Water Resources
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Excessive water withdrawals.
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Loss of species, habitats, and ecosystems.
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Conservation and demand management.
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Technical innovations.
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Water transfers, markets, and water banks.
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Infrastructure improvements.
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Enhanced information systems and hydrologic forecasting.
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Water management and efficiency practices.
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Water availability and demand.
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Agriculture.
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Fish and wildlife.
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Hydropower.
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Navigation, recreation, and tourism.
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7. Water Resources
Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources
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Reductions in the amount of water naturally stored in snowpack and glaciers, due to
rising temperatures and increasing winter runoff.
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competition for scarce water resources.
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reservoirs for flood control, fish, and hydropower.
ƒ
Reduced water quality due to lower late summer streamflow, warmer summer
temperatures, and increased winter flooding.
1
Declining snowpack and
loss of natural water storage
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streamflow
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Mixed rain- and snow-dominated basins, such as the
Yakima River, are likely to shift to rain-dominated basins. Peak
streamflow will shift earlier in the spring and late summer
streamflow will decline.
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likely to see reduced peak spring streamflow, increased winter
streamflow, and reduced late summer flow.
ƒ
Rain-dominated basins, such as the Chehalis River, will likely
see relatively little change in streamflow timing. However, they
will likely experience higher winter streamflow, due to the
potential for more winter precipitation.
Figure 4. Projected average monthly streamflow for a rain-dominated watershed (Chehalis River),
a mixed rain-snow watershed (Yakima River), and a snowmelt-dominated watershed (Columbia
River). Hydrographs represent monthly averages of simulated daily streamflow for 1916-2006
and three future periods: 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. (Elsner et al. 2010)
104
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7. Water Resources
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11 to 13 percent by the 2020s.
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26 to 35 percent by the 2080s.115
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33 to 43 percent by the 2080s.116
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competition for scarce water resources
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Figure 5. 2040 Projected climate change impact on summer flows by watershed. Climate change
will intensify current water needs of people, fish, and farms in at least 45 percent of the state,
shown in red on the map.
Source: Washington Department of Ecology
4
More severe winter
flooding
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7. Water Resources
Figure 6. Maps of the ratio of
the 100-year flood magnitude
(future/historical) for three
future time intervals, under
two climate scenarios. (Higher
ratios, shown with larger dots
in red, indicate more intense
flooding events projected for
the future). (Source: Tohver
and Hamlet 2010)
5
Declining water
quality
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109
7. Water Resources
Recommended Adaptation Strategies and
Actions—Water Resources
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Strategy D-1. Manage water resources in a changing
climate by implementing Integrated Water Resources
Management approaches in highly vulnerable basins.
Actions:
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Integrated Water Resources
Management in the Yakima Basin
Water shortages are a chronic problem
in the Yakima River Basin. Demand for
water to irrigate crops, provide drinking
water and ensure salmon and steelhead
survival is greater than available supply.
In 2009, Ecology and the U.S. Bureau of
Reclamation brought representatives from
the Yakama Nation, irrigation districts,
environmental organizations, and federal,
state, and local governments to develop a
consensus-based solution to the basin’s water
problems. The group agreed upon a proposed
approach to improving water management
in the Yakima River Basin—an Integrated
Water Resources Management (IWRM) plan.
The IWRM Plan, the most comprehensive effort
to date in the Yakima Basin, includes seven
elements: reservoir fish passage, structural
and operational changes to existing facilities,
surface water storage, groundwater storage,
habitat and watershed protection and
enhancement, enhanced water conservation,
and market reallocation of water. The new
plan has brought together once-conflicting
water interests to support the plan.
Yakima River Basin Integrated
Water Resource Plan:
www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/
yrbwep/2011integratedplan/
plan/integratedplan.pdf
112
7. Water Resources
Strategy D-2. Improve water supply
and water quality in basins most likely
to be affected by changing climate.
Actions:
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7. Water Resources
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Columbia River Basin
A temperature-sensitive cycle of snow
accumulation and melting dominates surface
water flows in the Columbia River Basin.
Average temperatures are 1.5ºF higher in the
Columbia River Basin than they were a century
ago, and annual average temperatures are
expected to increase by 2.5 ºF in the next
50 years. This warming could fundamentally
change the patterns of rain and snow in the
Columbia River Basin. The changes in water
supply and demand are important features of
Washington State University’s 2011 Forecast.
The forecast found that climate change will
shift water availability away from the irrigation
season when demands are highest. Water
supply at Bonneville Dam is forecasted to
decrease nearly 21 percent between June
and October, while increasing up to 36
percent between November and May.
Current out-of-stream diversion demands
for municipal and agricultural irrigation are
projected to increase by 2030. This increased
demand is likely to exacerbate water supply
issues in some locations, and during the
summer, will make it more difficult to meet all
demands, including instream demands for fish.
The forecast information will guide the state in
developing a water management plan and in
making strategic capital investments in water
infrastructure to meet eastern Washington’s
environmental and economic needs.
www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/cwp/
wsu_supply-demand.html
114
7. Water Resources
River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC)
Climate change will alter how the Columbia River and its tributaries will be managed for flood control,
power generation, and protection of endangered fish. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Bureau
of Reclamation, and the Bonneville Power Administration began a climate change initiative in 2008.
In 2011, the three federal agencies produced the “Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the River
Management Joint Operating Committees’ Longer-Term Planning Studies – Part IV Summary.” The
data sets show how climate change could alter hydrology and water supplies in the Columbia River
Basin and how climate change could affect the operation of the Columbia River and its tributaries.
www.bpa.gov/power/pgf/ClimateChange/Final_PartIV_091611.pdf
115
7. Water Resources
Strategy D-3. Implement water
conservation and efficiency programs to
reduce the amount of water needed for
irrigation, municipal, and industrial users
and to improve basin-wide water supply.
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116
7. Water Resources
Climate Change in the
Methow Valley
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A team of USGS, local stakeholders, and
consultants are looking at long-range
water-related issues in the Methow
Basin, anticipating changing climatic
conditions. The major issues include water
availability and providing riverine habitat
for several endangered fish species.
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The team is developing a decision analysis
tool for water users and the public,
interested in whether water will be available
for irrigation in the future, whether the
current fish populations can be supported
with declining summer runoff, and whether
there will be enough lowland snow to
support the tourism industry of crosscountry skiing. The tool will also enable
decision makers and water managers to
make more targeted decisions on specific
restoration activities in the basin.
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117
7. Water Resources
Strategy D-4. Build the
capacity of state, tribal, and
local governments; watershed
and regional groups; water
managers; and communities
to identify and assess risks
and vulnerabilities to climate
change impacts on water
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118
7. Water Resources
Climate Ready Water Utilities
Extreme weather events, sea level rise,
shifting precipitation and runoff patterns,
temperature changes, and resulting
changes in water quality and availability
contribute to a complex scenario of
climate challenges that may have
significant implications for drinking water,
wastewater, and stormwater utilities.
Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) worked
closely with the University of Washington’s
Climate Impacts Group to examine
the effects of climate change on SPU’s
system performance and to project
future changes in water supply and
demand. SPU used this information to
analyze a range of adaptation options
and identified several “no-regrets”
options that provide benefits regardless
of the magnitude of climate change.
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EPA’s Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU)
initiative provides resources for water
utilities to adapt to climate change:
water.epa.gov/infrastructure/
watersecurity/climate/
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments:
Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices:
cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/global/
recordisplay.cfm?deid=233808
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7. Water Resources
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8. Agriculture
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
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Changes in crop productivity.
Decreases in water availability.
Increased stress from extreme events.
Reduced livestock productivity.
Increased stress from invasive weeds, diseases, and pests.
Global economic impacts from climate change.
Changes in crop
productivity
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The Yakima Basin reservoir system will be less able to supply water to all users,
especially those with junior (newer) water rights.
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for junior water rights holders, due to lack of irrigation water. The value of apple and
cherry production in the Yakima Basin is likely to decline by about $23 million, or 5
percent by the 2020s. 132
2
Increased stress from extreme
events, such as extreme
heat, drought, and flooding
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production.
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Allowing greater proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens.135
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weeds, diseases and pests
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8. Agriculture
Economic impacts on
Washington agriculture
Washington’s agriculture industry will likely
experience both economic benefits and
disruptions from global climate change
and global markets. For example, several
staple crops consumed in developing
counties, such as cereal grains, are major
commodities grown in Washington State.
If global climate predictions are realized,
the Pacific Northwest will likely be looked
upon to provide food to other parts of
the world experiencing crop failures
due to rising sea levels, heat waves,
droughts, floods, and increased pests.
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The Pacific Northwest may be called upon
to provide food to other parts of the
world that are more vulnerable, have food
shortages, and are less able to adapt to
changes in climate.
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The impact of climate change on the
hydropower system will affect the food
processing industry. The freezing of fruits
and vegetables is Washington’s primary
food processing industry. This industry is
energy-intensive and has depended on
the relatively low cost of hydropower in
the region.
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Potential impacts of climate change on
the state’s transportation infrastructure
and the cost of fuels will very likely
affect Washington agricultural exports.
Washington ships about 70 percent of its
harvest out of the state, with the nearest
major markets over 1,000 miles away.
The current global distribution of goods
depends on well-developed infrastructure
that provides fast, low-cost transportation.
Also, as the purchasing power of people
in the most populous countries increases,
demand for high-value food crops grown
in Washington will also increase.
While these global changes may increase
demand for Washington’s commodity
exports, rising costs of energy and
transportation may reduce this opportunity.
Economic impacts from
global climate change
129
8. Agriculture
Recommended Adaptation Strategies and
Actions—Agriculture
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130
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Protection of productive agricultural land.
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Reduction of impacts of severe droughts and floods.
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Prevention and control of invasive species.
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Engagement of agricultural communities in research, data sharing, and adaptation
policies and actions.
8. Agriculture
Strategy E-1. Maintain and enhance agriculture
productivity by helping farmers and ranchers
transition toward sustainable agriculture.
Actions:
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Conservation markets
give economic values
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benefits and are sold to
purchasers, typically land
developers required to
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Dryland Farming and Climate Change
To address questions related to climate change and dryland agriculture, the region’s landgrant universities—Washington State University, Oregon State University, and the University
of Idaho—recently received a $20 million grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Known as Regional Approaches to Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Agriculture
(REACCH PNA), this grant will support 20 scientists at the three universities and the
USDA’s Agricultural Research Service to begin a comprehensive evaluation of the
impacts of predicted climate change on the region’s cereal grain production.
reacchpna.uidaho.edu/reacchpna
132
8. Agriculture
Strategy E-2. Reduce impacts of severe droughts and
extreme weather events on irrigated agriculture.
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8. Agriculture
Strategy E-3. Prevent, eradicate, and control pests,
diseases, and weeds potentially harmful to public health,
the environment, and agriculture production.
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8. Agriculture
Strategy E-4. Promote opportunities to engage the
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and implementing new policies, technologies, and
practices addressing the impacts of climate change.
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3
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143
9. Forests
Recommended Adaptation Strategies and
Actions—Forests
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144
9. Forests
Strategy F-1. Conserve and restore healthy, resilient
forests across ownership boundaries and large
geographic ranges to minimize the threats from
climate change and extreme weather events.
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Statewide Forest Resource Assessment and Strategy
The 2008 federal Farm Bill required state forestry agencies to conduct a Statewide Forest
Resource Assessment and Strategy as a condition of receiving forest landowner assistance
funds. Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR) completed the forest
resource assessment and strategy in June 2010. The assessment identified wildfire hazard
reduction and forest health restoration as major issues, with the greatest risk of wildfire
in eastern Washington, mountain gap wind zones, and the San Juan Islands.
DNR recently completed its 2010-2014 Strategic Plan (see box on the next page) to guide the agency’s
focus and new initiatives. Several issues identified in the Statewide Forest Resource Assessment
are addressed in the Strategic Plan and can be seen as an expression of agency-wide priorities.
www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/em_wa_statewide_a_cover_contents_intro_section.pdf
145
9. Forests
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Transfer of
development rights
(TDR) allows owners of
property zoned for lowdensity development
or conservation use
to sell development
rights to other property
owners located in
“receiving” zones, such
as designated urban
areas, that can accept
additional density.
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DNR’s 2010-2014 Strategic Plan: The Goldmark Agenda
The DNR Strategic Plan, known as the Goldmark Agenda, identifies preserving forest cover and protecting
working forests from conversion as major goals for the Department. DNR has established several initiatives
to support small forest landowners to maintain their land as working forests, advance policies and
incentives to maintain private working forest lands and associated jobs, consolidate DNR-managed working
forests into strategically positioned blocks that help provide compatible management for neighboring
forest lands, and permanently maintain DNR-managed working forests at greatest risk of conversion.
Biodiversity and habitat conservation connect with the agency’s strategic priorities
for natural area conservation and climate adaptation. In addition, upland water
quality, quantity, and Puget Sound restoration are central to DNR’s responsibilities
to regulate forest practices and manage state trust lands sustainability.
www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/em_strategic_plan_2010_goldmark_agenda.pdf
146
9. Forests
Strategy F-2. Maintain and protect
forest species and genetic diversity
across the landscape to ensure longterm conservation of our forest
genetic resources and help buffer
against impacts of climate change.
Actions:
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Phenology:
Study of periodic
biological phenomena,
such as breeding,
flowering, and
migration, especially
as related to climate.
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147
9. Forests
Strategy F-3. Protect, expand, and manage urban
forests to help communities reduce impacts of rising
temperatures and extreme precipitation runoff events.
Actions:
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Urban Heat Island:
A metropolitan area that is
significantly warmer than its
surrounding rural areas.
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148
9. Forests
Strategy F-4. Build capacity and support for maintaining,
enhancing, and restoring resilient and healthy forests.
Actions:
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149
150
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
151
152
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
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Affect public safety.
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Interrupt critical evacuation routes and energy supplies.
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Cause travel delays and disruptions.
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153
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
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154
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Impacts of Climate Change on
Infrastructure and the Built
Environment
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Sea level rise and storm surge will increase the risk of
flooding, erosion, and damage to coastal infrastructure.
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flooding, landslides, and erosion, which may damage or
disrupt infrastructure systems and overwhelm drainage
structures.
ƒ
Warmer temperatures and heat waves could strain energy
and transportation systems—though they also offer
benefits such as reduced snow and ice removal costs.
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Prolonged low summer flows could affect river navigation.
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Lower summer streamflow will reduce summer
hydropower production at a time when warmer
temperatures will increase electricity demand for cooling.
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Larger and more intense forest fires could damage
buildings, roads, and other infrastructure.
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Table 2. Projected changes in hydropower generation and energy demand compared to 19172006 (not including population growth)
*Figures are for a fixed year 2000 population. Population growth is projected to increase winter demand for energy for
heating and summer demand for energy for cooling.
Source: Hamlet et al. (2010).
158
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10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Recommended Adaptation Strategies
and Actions—Infrastructure and the Built
Environment
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Protecting infrastructure by strengthening dikes and levees and by using other hard
or soft structural approaches.
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Strengthening infrastructure to better withstand climate impacts (such as flooding
or extreme heat) through improved materials, design, and construction techniques.
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Raising or elevating infrastructure to protect it from flooding.
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Relocating, decommissioning or abandoning selected infrastructure where the costs
of protection and maintenance outweighs the benefit.
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Care must be taken to avoid approaches that have negative impacts on fish and
wildlife or cause unintended consequences.
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
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The Growth Management Act.
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The Shoreline Management Act.
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Emergency preparedness and response.
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Transportation.
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Energy.
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161
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Strategy G-1. Protect vulnerable infrastructure and ensure
it is safe, functional, and resilient to climate impacts.
Actions:
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Washington’s Transportation Infrastructure
The Washington State Department of Transportation is one of five entities that the Federal Highway
Administration funded to “test drive” its draft vulnerability and risk assessment conceptual model for
transportation infrastructure.
WSDOT conducted the statewide assessment on state-owned and managed infrastructure, using data from
the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group. Through workshops and the FHWA model, WSDOT
found vulnerable infrastructure across the state. Most of our newer bridges are resistant to climate changes—
some can withstand a sea level rise of up to 4 feet or more.
In some areas, however, road approaches to bridges appear more vulnerable than previously thought. From
the data and maps that came out of the workshops, WSDOT can see where climate changes are likely to
intensify the threats already facing our transportation facilities.
www.wsdot.wa.gov/SustainableTransportation/adapting.htm
162
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Strategy G-2. Guide future development
away from areas at risk.
Actions:
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163
10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Strategy G-3. Reduce or avoid climate risks by considering
climate in the planning, funding, design, and construction of
infrastructure projects and by promoting improved design and
construction standards in areas vulnerable to climate risks.
Actions:
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164
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Green infrastructure encompasses the
preservation and restoration of natural
landscape features, such as forests, wetlands,
floodplains, and natural drainage features.
At the site scale, it involves low-impact
development (LID) and sustainable building
features, such as rain gardens, green roofs,
permeable pavement, rainwater harvesting,
urban forestry, and preservation of green
open spaces such as parks and wetlands.
Benefits of green infrastructure include:
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Better management of stormwater runoff.
Lower incidence of combined
sewer overflows (CSOs).
Water capture and conservation.
Flood prevention.
Storm surge protection.
Defense against sea level rise.
Accommodation of natural hazards.
Reduced ambient temperatures
and urban heat island effects.
For more information:
www.ccap.org/green_infrastructure.html
Strategy G-4. Enhance the preparedness of transportation,
energy, and emergency service providers to respond to
more frequent and intense weather-related emergencies.
Actions:
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10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment
Strategy G-5. Build capacity of the energy sector to
respond to climate-related disruptions and meet potential
increases in energy demand and changes in supply.
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What is Smart Grid?
Smart Grid is an advanced
telecommunications and electric grid
with sensors and smart devices linking
all aspects of the current grid—from
generator to consumer—and delivering
enhanced operational capabilities that:
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Provide users with the information
and tools necessary to respond to
electricity grid conditions, including
price and reliability, through the use
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11. Research and Monitoring
Recommended Strategies and Actions—
Research and Monitoring
Strategy H-1. Improve scientific knowledge and ensure
that climate science is responsive and applied to the needs
of policymakers, managers, planners, and others.
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Understanding Washington’s marine waters
The Puget Sound Assessment and Monitoring Program is an extensive network of regional scientists who
monitor key indicators of water and sediment quality, nearshore habitat, and the health or abundance of fish,
seabirds, shellfish, and marine mammals. With more than 25 years of water quality monitoring—including
temperature, pH, and sediment—we are in a unique position to assess status and trends in our waters. This
long-term monitoring lets us know if our waters are healthy or impaired and tracks trends over time.
Ecology’s Marine Monitoring Unit conducts a variety of marine observations, including monthly sampling at
40 core monitoring stations. Ecology uses a floatplane to take photos of Puget Sound water conditions during
routine transit flights between the Kenmore base and Olympia.
“Eyes Over Puget Sound” is the result, and the effort provides an example of how we are optimizing our
resources to monitor Puget Sound. “Eyes Over Puget Sound” combines high-resolution photo observations
with satellite images, data collected en route on ferries traveling across Puget Sound and to Vancouver Island,
and measurements from moored instruments.
For more information:
www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/mar_wat/mwm_intr.html
www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/mar_wat/eops/
172
11. Research and Monitoring
Strategy H-2. Partner and collaborate with state, federal,
tribal, and local governments and various organizations to
enhance existing monitoring systems, and develop new
systems where needed to monitor the impacts of climate
change and the efficacy of adaptation responses.
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173
11. Research and Monitoring
Strategy H-3. Support development and use of applied tools
for decision makers and land and water managers to help them
understand the risks and consequences of changing climatic
conditions on communities, infrastructure, and natural systems;
and select effective adaptation options to build resilience.
Actions:
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Climate Adaptation Clearinghouse
The Washington Department of Ecology’s
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links to information on the impacts of
climate change, regional and federal
adaptation efforts, and resources to
help communities plan and adapt.
www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ipa_resources.
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12. Climate Communication, Public Awareness, and Engagement
Recommended Strategies and Actions—Climate
Communication, Public Awareness, and Engagement
Strategy I-1. Create coordinated and cohesive communication
messages and tools on climate change impacts and adaptation, and
ensure they are effectively distributed to a wide variety of people
and professionals across all levels of government and the public.
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Strategy I-3. Engage the public in climate change
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“King tides” occur naturally when the sun and the moon
align, causing an increased gravitational pull on the Earth’s
oceans. The Washington Department of Ecology invites
residents and visitors to take photos of Washington’s king
tides. Documenting how very high tides affect the natural
environment and our coastal infrastructure will help us
visualize what sea level rise might look like in the future.
In 2010 and 2011, Washington’s King Tides Photo Initiative
gathered over 400 photos.
Ecology’s King Tide website:
www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ipa_hightide.htm
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Climate Adaptation Knowledge
Exchange (CAKE)
Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE),
a joint project of Island Press and EcoAdapt, is
aimed at building a shared knowledge base for
managing natural systems in the face of climate
change. It includes a virtual library of adaptation
resources, case studies, a directory of individuals
and organizations working on climate adaptation,
and tools to help make adaptation decisions.
CAKE website:
www.cakex.org
The Adaptation Clearinghouse
The Adaptation Clearinghouse, developed
by the Georgetown Climate Center, seeks to
assist state policymakers, resource managers,
academics, and others who are working to
help communities adapt to climate change.
The clearinghouse contains resources, tools,
and case studies to help planners understand
climate risks and effective response strategies.
Adaptation Clearinghouse website:
www.georgetownclimate.org/
adaptation/clearinghouse
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Photo Credits
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
Jim Cummins
Carey Ensign
Ray Garrido
George Kaminsky
Ed Knight
Russ McMillan
Hugh Shipman
Taylor Shellfish
Brian Walsh
Washington State Department of Agriculture
Washington Department of Ecology
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
Washington State Department of Health
Washington State Department of Natural Resources
Washington State Department of Transportation
200
Appendices
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202
Appendices
Appendices
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Appendix A. Advisory Group Members
Appendix B. Advisory Group Final Reports and Recommendations
Appendix C. Priority Response Strategies and Actions
Appendix D. Summary of Projected Changes in Major Drivers of Pacific Northwest
Climate Change Impacts
203