2013 - 2027
National Insect and Disease
Forest Risk Assessment & Supporting Data
Past, Current, and Future Forest Conditions
Frank J. Krist, James R. Ellenwood, & Frank J. Sapio
Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team
Acting FHP Director
What is NIDRM?
 Landscape – level summary of the severity and extent of insect
and disease activity
 Spans the 2013 – 2027 timeframe
 A tool for allocating pest-management resources across
geographic regions
Process for development
Expert
input from
all Forest
Service
regions and
nearly 50
States.
Predictions
of severe
forest
mortality
caused by
pests and
pathogens.
How is Risk Defined?
Risk, or more appropriately termed hazard, is defined as the
potential that, without remediation, 25 percent or more of the
standing live basal area (BA) of trees greater than 1 inch in
diameter will die over the next 15 years due to insects and
diseases.
Hazard is modeled across all treed areas within the U.S.
(about 1.2 billion acres).
4
ADCs
Sept. 2013
More than just
a single map
 Tabular summaries by pest/host
 Maps depicting:
 Impacts by pest & host
 Extent & density of individual
tree species
 Host dominance
NIDRM is supporting several strategic initiatives
 State Forest Action Plans
 Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Projects
 Utility in prioritizing landscapes targeted for:
Ecosystem Restoration or Integrated Resource Restoration –
(IRR)
 As it is predictive….
 Watershed condition framework (WCF)
 Terrestrial ecosystem condition assessment (TCA)
 Inventory, Monitoring and Assessment (IM&A)
 Hazardous Fuels Prioritization Allocation System (HFPAS )
NIDRM is part of an FHP information system
http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov
Past Condition
Present Condition
Potential Future Condition
Forest Pest Conditions Viewer
Insect & Disease Survey Explorer
Forest Disturbance Mapper
Soil Drainage & Productivity
Index Viewer
NIDRM Viewer
Data Access, Regional & Forest Level Conditions
FHP Portal - http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov
Online Map Services - http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/arcgisfh/services
Report, Tables & Raster GIS Data - www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/nidrm.shtml
Mobile: http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/arcgisfh/mobile
Regional
Summary
Amount of Area
where individual
agent mortality rates
are 25% or more
R1 – Beaverhead NF
Mountain Pine Beetle
Basal Area Loss
Douglas-Fir Beetle
% Host Loss
R2 – Pike, Nebraska, and Grand Mesa NFs
Root Disease
% Host Loss
Douglas-Fir Beetle
Basal Area Loss
Aspen/Cottonwood Decline
Basal Area Loss
R3 – Engraver Beetle Across AZ & NM NFs
Engraver Beetle (Ips Spp.)
Basal Area Loss
R4 –Toiyabe, Humboldt, Dixie NFs
Fir Engraver Beetle
% Host Loss
Engraver Beetle Ips. Spp.
% Total BA Loss
R5 – Shasta - Trinity & El Dorado NFs
http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/nidrm/
Western Pine Beetle
% Host Loss
Jeffrey Pine Beetle
% of Total BA Loss
R6 - Accelerated
Restoration
March 2013
www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/nidrm.shtm
March 2013
R8 – Exotics - Osceola, Talladega NFs
Laurel Wilt
Basal Area Loss
Beech Bark Disease
% Host Loss
R8 – Extent of Beech Bark Disease, Talladega NF
Talladega NF
Current Extent of Beech Bark Disease – Without mitigation BBD could become
established and cause significant damage in Talladega NF
R8 – Chattahoochee, Cherokee, & Nantahala NFs
Oak Decline
% Host Loss
R9 – White Mountain NF
Maple Decline
% Host Loss
R10 – Tongass NF
Yellow Cedar Decline
% Host Loss
Huron NF – Soil Moisture Regime, BA by Tree Species
Sugar
Maple
BA
Red
Pine
Soil
Moisture
Regime
Jack
PineBA
BA
National
Individual tree
species map
Wide Utility
NIDRM Report
www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/nidrm.shtm