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Second Wednesdays | 1:00 – 2:00 pm ET www.fs.fed.us/research/urban-webinars This meeting is being recorded. If you do not wish to be recorded, please disconnect now. USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. Deborah McCullough Cliff Sadof Richard Hauer Professor Michigan State University Professor Purdue University Professor University of Wisconsin – Stevens Point e-mail… Hauer UWSP … for a copy of today’s talk Emerald Ash Borer: Status, management options, and cost calculators Richard J. Hauer, Ph.D Professor of Urban Forestry College of Natural Resources, University of Wisconsin – Stevens Point “Whether Stennes you like it or not, it will cost you money!” Mark American Elm (Ulmus americana): The Tolerant One The Actors are Showing the Play Whether You Like it or Not, DED Will Cost You Money Figure 2. Projected elm tree losses from Dutch elm disease under varying levels of control. (From Cannon and Worley 1976) How much will it cost? A DED Example circa 1970’s Figure 7. A quarter-century of DED management in Minneapolis, MN compared to predicted results of Baughman (1985) under two levels of sanitation. 100,000 90,000 - Predicted Minimum Sanitation 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 Year 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 0 1978 Number of Elms 80,000 Figure 7. A quarter-century of DED management in Minneapolis, MN compared to predicted results of Baughman (1985) under two levels of sanitation. 100,000 90,000 Predicted Intensive Sanitation Predicted Minimum Sanitation 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 Year 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 0 1978 Number of Elms 80,000 Figure 7. A quarter-century of DED management in Minneapolis, MN compared to predicted results of Baughman (1985) under two levels of sanitation. 100,000 - 90,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Year 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 0 1978 Number of Elms 80,000 Actual Results Predicted Intensive Sanitation Predicted Minimum Sanitation Figure 8. A quarter-century of DED management in Minneapolis, MN compared to predicted results of Baughman (1985) under two levels of sanitation. 5,000 - Predictive Minimum Sanitation 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Year 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 0 1979 Cost (Thousands of Dollars, USD) 4,500 Figure 8. A quarter-century of DED management in Minneapolis, MN compared to predicted results of Baughman (1985) under two levels of sanitation. 5,000 - 4,000 3,500 Predicted Intensive Sanitation Predictive Minimum Sanitation 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Year 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 0 1979 Cost (Thousands of Dollars, USD) 4,500 Figure 8. A quarter-century of DED management in Minneapolis, MN compared to predicted results of Baughman (1985) under two levels of sanitation. 5,000 -- Actual Results 4,000 Predicted Intensive Sanitation - Predictive Minimum Sanitation 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Year 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 0 1979 Cost (Thousands of Dollars, USD) 4,500 Figure 1. Elm population in Milwaukee over a 40 year period comparing the actual outcome and four management approaches and anticipated percentage annual loss. (Simulated losses adapted from Cannon and Worley (1976) with a starting population106,738) 110,000 100,000 Best 90,000 Good 70,000 60,000 Fair 50,000 40,000 Best (1.0%) 30,000 20,000 10,000 Good (3.5%) Fair (5.0%) No Control (18%) Actual Population 0 Actual No Control 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Number of Elm Trees 80,000 Year 25 Estimated American elm canopy cover under different Dutch elm disease management scenarios and the estimated right of way tree canopy for all tree species from aerial photos. 25 Actual Elm Population No Control (18% Annual Mortality) Fair Control (5.0% Annual Mortality) All Tree Species Good Control (3.5% Annual Mortality) 20 Best Control (1.0% Annual Mortality) Best 20 15 15 10 5 Good Elm Trees Only 10 Fair 5 No Control Actual 0 0 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Percent Tree Canopy Cover All Tree Species Year EAB Decision Making Model Study Objectives • Complete Inventory: UW- Stevens Point • Economic analysis of four EAB management scenarios… 1. Do nothing (control) & remove after dead 2. Approved insecticide treatment 3. Removal of all ash in five years 4. Removal with non-ash replacement * No EAB What are your objectives? Determining Benefits • CTLA: Compensatory value (replacement value included) • i-Tree: Functional value (only the benefits provided, not replacement value) What is your data? Calculating Net Present Value π Retained Value ππ π = π‘=1 π Lost Value ππΏπ = π‘=1 πΆπ ππ πΆπ πΆπ‘ πΆπ − − − − (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ πΆπ ππ πΆπ πΆπ‘ πΆπ + + + + (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ (1 + π)π‘ Where: VRi = net average annual value retained for alternative i VLi = net average annual value lost for alternative i Cm = maintenance costs Ct = treatment costs Cr = removal costs Cp = planting costs d = discount rate What is your data? EAB-PLANS http://www.uwsp.edu/cnr/Pages/outreachExtension.aspx A way to compare management options Modeled Ash Tree Loss Over 20 Years 160 140 Number of Trees 120 100 80 Preemptive Remove & Replant No EAB 60 Treatment Control 40 Preemptive Remove 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Year Different Options and Tree Retention EAB-Induced Ash Mortality SE Michigan Solid line: direct measurements Dotted line: inferred from dendrochronology data confirming EAB-induced ash mortality from 1994 - 2004 The outcome of doing nothing (Image by Dan Herms) EAB-PLANS … Entering Customized Data VARIABLES Starting Diameter UNIT VALUE Mlean S ize (Inches) 17.90 ο οΎ Starting Population Number of Trees 31,421 ο οΎ Preemptiv·e R.e moval Number of Years 5 ο οΎ Tree Growth R.ate Inches/Year 0.50 Enter your ash population statistics EAB-PLANS … Entering Customized Data Maintenance Cost $/Diameter Inch 3.50 Removal Cost $/Diameter Inch 31 .90 Treatment Cost $/Diameter Inch Treatment (Tx) Interval Years Between Tx 3.75 ο οΎ 2 ο οΎ Expected Tx Success Percent 99.0% Planting Survival Percent 90.0% Natural Survival Percent 99.2% No Control Survival (EAB Percent 80.0% ο οΎ Enter your management costs and treatment outcomes Default values from McPherson et al. 2005 … Midwest Guide (Adjusted for Inflation to 2012) Includes Stumps Actual values from City of Milwaukee Production Records (Mean 2013 and 2014) Includes Stumps EAB-PLANS … Entering Customized Data Replacement Size Inches 2 .00 Replacement Cost Dollars 145 Installation Cost Dollars 200 Unit Tree Cost $/sq . in . 46.15 Species Percent 70 .0°/o Condition Percent 69.5% Location Percent 70 .0% Interest Rate + 1 Percent 1.03 Enter your economic parameters Management Alternatives Retained Tree Analysis Forest Net Per Tree Net Value Value $58,152,332 4,343 No Control Preemptive Removal $17,747,430 Remove & Replant $23,269,996 Treatment $130,745,328 No EAB $137,689,737 MANGEMENT ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS Goals & Objectives Mean Net Per Tree Value Net Per Tree Value at Year 20 Net Total Tree Value at Year 20 Mean Net Per Tree Value Lost Total Trees Lost After 20 Years Mean Annual Tree Diameter (DBH) Mean Number of Trees Lost Per Year Trees Retained at Year 20 Mean Per Year Maintenance Cost Total Maintenance Cost Mean Per Year Removal Cost Total Removal Cost Mean Per Year Planting Cost Total Planting Cost Mean Per Year Treatment Cost Total Treatment Cost Total Management Cost Mean Per Year Total Management Cost 1,143 785 4,690 4,743 Lost Tree Analysis Benefit/Cost Forest Net Per Tree Net Compare to No Within Value Value Control Alternative 1.78 $7,997,094 5,517 Legend $7,185,396 1,143 Most Desirable Outcome 0.62 $7,794,244 4,620 0.32 $2,152,158 5,692 5.57 Least Desirable Outcome $1,238,953 5,580 Management Alternatives No Control $4,343 $5,167 $5,053,329 $5,517 30,443 20.4 1,450 978 $526,393 $11,054,258 $639,001 $13,419,019 $434,254 $9,119,333 $0 $0 $33,592,610 $1,599,648 Treatment $4,690 $5,286 $124,111,463 $5,692 7,940 22.6 378 23,481 $973,629 $20,446,211 $162,382 $3,410,017 $104,053 $2,185,120 $899,288 $18,885,048 $44,926,396 $2,139,352 Removal $949 $0 $0 $1,143 31,421 4.4 1,496 0 $216,443 $4,545,304 $681,716 $14,316,026 $0 $0 $0 $0 $18,861,331 $898,159 0.99 0.69 2.96 5.67 Remove & Replant $785 $775 $21,253,489 $4,620 35,430 8.0 1,687 27,412 $432,291 $9,078,106 $702,997 $14,762,930 $577,618 $12,129,979 $0 $0 $35,971,015 $1,712,905 Milwaukee Example ($3.75, 2 year) $30,000,000 Treatment Cost Planting Cost Removal Cost Management Cost $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 No Control Treatment Preemptive Removal Preemptive Remove & Replant Milwaukee Example ($3.75, 2 year) $160,000,000 6 5.67 $120,000,000 Net Present Value Benefit/Cost 5 4 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 3 2.96 $60,000,000 2 1.78 $40,000,000 1 0.99 $20,000,000 0.69 $0 0 No Control Preemptive Preemptive Removal Removal & Replant Treatment No EAB Benefit/Cost Net Present Value $140,000,000 Tree Triage: Take Care of the Worst First Brown Rot Remove your worst condition, high risk trees first
