Insurance in a Climate of Change
Onno Huyser,
Senior Manager Fynbos & Succulent Karoo
WWF South Africa

Global re-insurance claims

We live in a time of unprecedented risk

What is driving this risk?
1. Exposure to risk
2. Volatility in the system
3. Buffering capacity of the ecosystems

Catchment planning & Flooding

Flow
Ecosystems and flow regulation
Flooding
Poorly-planned, degraded landscape
Well-planned, intact landscape
Wet
Drought
Dry
Season
Wet

Global Land-use Changes

Beach dynamics & sea storm risk
Coastal fore-dune
No fore-dune leads to sand deficit

Oops ....

The Southern Cape Case Study
Fire, Flood and Sea Storm Risk

1. Climate change is increasing
risks

Fire Risk Days
Modelled Results
Extreme Rainfall Events
Wave Runup

Observed Data
Extreme rainfall events Wild-fires
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
-
Spring Summer Autumn Winter
1970-89
1990-2006

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Observed Data
Sea Storm Wave Height Peaks – Cape Point
2 in 9 years 6 in 6 years

2. Local ecological impacts had an
equal effect on risk

Flood Risk
•
Local land-use changes had equal effect compared to climate

Fire Risk
•
Spread of Alien Invasive Trees was greatest predictor of the occurrence of intense fires
Wi = 0.37

Sea Storm Risk
•
Destruction of fore-dunes was the most important
predictor of coastal risk

1. A Systems Approach to Risk Assessment
Identify controllable drivers of risk

2. Network Approach to Risk Management
Ecological
Agencies
Invasive Alien
Trees
Fire
Local
Authorities
Land-use planning
Flood
Customers Influencers
Health of
Fore-dunes
Controllable
Drivers
Sea-
Storm
Hazards
Insured
Assets

Building a climate resilient society – together!
Dinokeng Scenarios

Next steps:
PHASE 2 to be launched shortly:
Focused on establishing key enabling partnerships, resolving risk-response “packets” at correct scale, and financing first visible management actions