Towards a Strategy for the Cape
Town region
IDP Workshop
26 September 2007
Outline
•
•
•
•
Introduction
The Strategic Challenge
Strategy Drivers Tests and Options
Possible strategy
1. Introduction
Introduction
Scope
• Joint Province and City project following on
from the Presidential Imbizo, 12 point action
plan and working groups to:
– Understand the regional economy
– Develop shared vision amongst stakeholders for
shared growth
– Identify turnkeys needed to achieve this vision
• “In the world that I live in, there are no
examples of successful cities that don’t
have flourishing regions working around
them and there are no examples of
successful regions that do not have at their
core, a leading successful city.”
– Greg Clarke
“Evidence suggests that strong collaboration at regional
level adds 0.2% to growth rates”
Introduction
Relationship to core mandates
80%
Fundamentals
Addressing service
and policy failures
IDPs
Service Plans
Drivers
20%
Addressing market
and coordination
failures
RDS
Introduction
Why a regional approach
•
Cities increasingly important in the global economy
– City-regions key to economic success
– Globalisation happens through institutions and firms based in cityregions, and using metropolitan logistics and infrastructure.
•
Economy not limited to administrative boundaries
– Citizens and firms locate in a region
•
Increased economic muscle to position in the national and
global economy
– Political and economic leverage
– Increased offerings
•
A number of critical and immediate strategic challenges can only
be addressed at regional level
– Water, energy, waste, logistics and communication, economic
development, settlement planning
Introduction
Defining the region
• Flexible approach to the
region
• Broad definition CT and
surrounding districts
• Narrow definition Cape
Town and surrounding
municipalities
100 km “sphere of
influence”
50 km “sphere of
influence”
Introduction
Defining the
region
Introduction
Defining the
region
Introduction
Defining the
region
Introduction
Defining the
region
Introduction
Defining the
region
Introduction
Process
•
Commission technical studies and workshop
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
Economic growth, competitiveness and priority sectors
Benchmarking CT globally
Economic and social inclusion
Infrastructure and logistics
Ecological sustainability
Education, research and knowledge
Identify key stakeholders and vision of each for the region
Use range of strategic tools
– Analytical frameworks
– Scenarios
– Systems dynamic model
•
On-going engagement of stakeholders
2. The Challenge
The Challenge
CTR population 2006 and 2015
Av Growth Av Growth
2001-2006 2006-2015
1.59
0.74
2.60
2.01
1.04
0.40
0.87
-0.75
-0.87
-0.94
1.87
0.99
3.85
2.93
1.52
0.69
City of Cape Town
Saldanha Bay
Swartland
Drakenstein
Stellenbosch
Theewaterskloof
Overstrand
CTFR total
2006
3,239,768
81,121
76,225
204,716
116,605
101,798
70,446
3,890,680
2015
3,462,343
97,000
78,985
191,245
107,133
111,218
91,356
4,139,280
W estern Cape
4,994,244
5,358,950
1.58
0.79
47,866,984
50,328,900
1.02
0.56
77.90
77.24
8.13
8.22
South
CTFR as % W estern Cape
CTFR as % SA
The Challenge
CTR contribution to GDPR
City of Cape Town
Saldanha Bay
Swartland
Drakenstein
Stellenbosch
Theewaterskloof
Overstrand
CTFR total GDPR
Western Cape
SA
CTFR as % Western Cape
CTFR as % SA
1995
2000
Rmn
Rmn
78588.08
91668.91
1538.60
1697.24
1224.29
1422.45
3580.24
3952.94
2184.39
2471.86
1206.12
1310.84
772.35
885.89
89094.07 103410.12
2005
Share Avg Growth Avg Growth Avg Growth
Rmn
2005 (%) 1995-2005 2000-2005 2004-2005
116749.02
89.08
4.04
4.96
5.82
2033.14
1.55
2.83
3.68
4.39
1829.36
1.40
4.10
5.16
7.25
4843.87
3.70
3.07
4.15
5.72
2990.47
2.28
3.19
3.88
4.81
1488.00
1.14
2.12
2.57
4.09
1131.73
0.86
3.89
5.02
7.97
3.94
4.85
5.79
131065.59
100.00
103112.09 119097.89 150176.01
728402.00 838218.00 1016750.00
86.41
12.23
86.83
12.34
87.27
12.89
3.83
3.39
4.75
3.94
5.78
5.12
The Challenge
Employment, participation & unemployment
September 2006, expanded definition
The Challenge
Common problem statement
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Growth too slow and narrow to turn around poverty
Competitiveness issues
Skills mismatches
Weak levels of social capital – crime, social problems
Limitations of basic needs emphasis
Urban growth reinforcing apartheid spatial patterns
Underinvestment in core infrastructure – esp
transport
• Acute environmental pressures
• Fragmented public sector response
• No common (inter-governmental/multi-stakeholder)
approach to regional challenges
The Problem Statement
Shift to services
Skills
Education
failure
Jobs
Crime
Inclusion
Fragmented symptom-focused response……….
Fragmented symptom-focused response
Subsidised municipal
services for poor
+
+
Municipal
financial crisis
- Income
poverty
-
+
Job creation -
The Challenge
Share of the CTR economy
Share of CTReconomy
Theewaterskloof 1.1%
Drakenstein 3.7%
Swartland 1.4%
Stellenbosch 2.3%
Overstrand 0.8%
Cape Town
Saldanha
Saldanha 1.5%
Swartland
Drakenstein
Theewaterskloof
CT
89%
Stellenbosch
Overstrand
The Challenge
Common intent - Shared Sustainable Growth
• Broad consensus on importance of shared growth
–
–
–
–
All spheres of government
Labour and social movements
Business
ACT high growth-high inclusion “Southern Tiger” preferred
scenario
• Widespread agreement on need for bold steps to
address environmental resource issues and climate
change given opportunity and exaggerated risk
• Core values :
– Economic resilience, Social justice, Environmental integrity,
(Beauty and pleasure, human dignity and flourishing)
The Challenge
Repositioning for shared sustainable growth
• Challenge and differences
– how to achieve this
• Backdrop of powerful
environmental, social and
economic trends with
differential impact
– requires differentiated
strategies within national
development framework
– major metro regions should
seek complementary rather
than competitive positions
The Challenge
2022 Scenarios - Critical Uncertainties
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rate and nature of national economic growth
Growth in global trade and travel flows
Impact of emerging China, India and Brazil
Level of African economic growth and stability
Impact of oil peak and rises in price of fuel
Impact of eco-system depletion
Impact of global warming
Nature of migration to CTR
Level of global cohesion, inequality and tolerance
Level of national social cohesion and tolerance
Nature and impact of global demand for skilled labour
Impact of global organised crime
The Challenge
Scenarios : Future Worlds 2022
Loose World
Tight World
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Enhanced global economic growth
New sustainable technologies
reduce ecological and oil peaks
impacts and grow new markets
Chinese and Indian export strength
balanced by opening up of their
markets to services and goods from
rest of world
Expanding global agricultural
markets
More multi-lateral world and
enhanced trade and reduced
protection
More tolerant world with reduced
security and terrorism concerns
Broadening national growth with
weakening rand
The Era of Global Middle Class
Emergent Africa
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Slowing global economic growth
Oil peak plus carbon emission
regs reduce export markets for
tourism and agricultural goods
Chinese and Indian economies
move up services and product
value chain and dominate services
and manufacturing
Rising food prices and staple
shortages
New bi-polar world, stronger
regional trading blocs, increasing
protectionism
Less tolerant world - terrorism,
xenophobia increase globally
Resource driven national growth
with strengthening rand
Richistan rules
Marginal Africa
Future World 2022
Challenge
2022 Scenarios –Common assumptions
•
Knowledge economy rules
– global economy driven by new innovations in ICT sector with
emerging biotech and nanotechnology
– rate of change and innovation will increase
– Continued global growth of services sector relative to
manufacturing
•
•
•
City regions will become more competitive and organised to
attract skills, capital and visitors
Global economy remains relatively stable – assumption that no
major long-term global deflationary or inflationary economic
crisis
Impact of HIV/AIDS and TB significant but predictable –
assumption that no catastrophic disease epidemic (such as
Avian flu) having major demographic impact.
3. Growth, Inclusion
and Sustainability Drivers
Drivers
Virtuous cluster of competitive sectors
Drivers
Market analysis
WC Growth markets
Pakistan
Nigeria
Ghana
Thailand
Denmark
Indonesia
Zambia
Brazil
Sweden
Netherlands
Global
Sluggish
Markets
> 5.1 Germany
France
Malaysia
Japan
Mozambique
UAE
Angola
Other major markets
Spain
Belgium
India
China
Singapore
Tanzania
South Korea
UK
Vietnam
USA
Source: Wesgro & http://en.w ikipedia.org/w iki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(real)_grow th_rate
Global
Growth
Markets
(<5.1)
Drivers
TOWS
Matrix
Opportunities
•Global tourist growth
•2010
•Innovation growth
•ES Atlantic location
•Centre of parliament
Threats
•Global warming
•Oil peak
•Tightening markets
Resources and competencies
Strengths
•Great natural beauty
•Strong HEIs
•Visitor economy
•Good infrastructure
S/O strategies
•Grow visitor economy
•Enhance Brand CT
•Grow creative industries
•Oil and gas servicing
S/T strategies
•Sustainability leader
•Invest in research and
innovation products and
services
Weaknesses
•Crime
•Low skills level
•Lack of connectivity
•Unemployment
W/O strategies
•Improve employment potential
in growth sectors
•Employment retention
•Anti crime initiatives
•Integrated skills development
programme
Drivers
Generic Positioning Choices
Sao Paulo?
Medium level services
Retain and
Renew
S Atlantic
0 degree
Service Centre
Offensive
Defensive
Global
Destination
Barcelona?
Dubai?
Bangalore?
Mauritius?
Africa’s
Creativity and
Innovation Hub
High end services
California?
Dakar?
Drivers
Evaluating strategic options – Scenarios Test
Tight
World
Loose
World
Africa’s Creativity and
Innovation Hub
9
9
The Global Destination
X
99
X9
9
X
9
Retain and Renew
S Atlantic Meridian 0
Service Centre
Drivers
Incremental approach over time?
Retain and Renew
Service
Centre
1996 - 2007
Global
Destination
2007 -2017
Innovation
Hub
2017 - 2027
4. The Proposed Strategy
CTR.
Inspired.
The
Inspirational
Destination
Creative
Hotspot
Leadership
Networks &
Resilience
Ecological
Leader
Service
Fundamentals
Job
Accelerator
Strategy
Starting points of regional strategy
• Growth and social cohesion are a common interest
• No single entity has the mandate, power or capacity to
achieve shared growth at the scale required on their own
• Relationships and trust are the foundations of competitive
success
• Different spheres of government will ensure that they
deliver on core mandates
• Sustainable growth requires:
– Recognising and working with natural resource constraints
– Strengthening the flow of money in local communities
– Selling products and services globally while deepening service
offering to the national economy to complement Gauteng
• We choose our own position – our destiny is in our hands
Strategy
1. Inspirational Destination
•
Aggressively establish CTR as the world’s most inspiring place to live,
work and visit as key growth driver over next 10 years
– Substantially increase local and international visitor numbers/spend
•
How?
– Enhance destination brand by adding cultural cool and sustainability leader
to beautiful city positioning
• Superior well resourced global marketing : 2010 as accelerator
• Grow new visitor markets esp Middle East, Africa, India and China
– Expand capacity to absorb visitors (more beds, more flights)
– Expand portfolio of visitor experiences and offerings
– Commercial and industrial nodes management improvement partnership
(led by BAN)
•
Preconditions
– Arrest social breakdown and win the battle against crime
– Good transport infrastructure
Expanded Offering
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Convention venue capacity growth
Film studio +
Education and training tourism and
students
Health and wellness tourism
Expanded events portfolio
West Coast, Winelands and
Overberg attractions and offerings
False Bay and Cape Flats
Parks/Waterfront
Wine Capital + Biodiversity
Hotspot + Sustainable Agriculture
Waterfront, Green Point, central
CT redevelopments as icons
Strategy
2. Creative Hotspot
•
Develop capacity to compete in niche high-end innovation and creative
products and services – growth driver for future built on positioning as great
destination and strong tertiary/research sector
– Prioritised niches – creative culture (music, craft, fashion, art, film), ICT,
sustainability, bio-tech/agriculture
•
How?
– Aggressively secure major research and innovation global investments
based on quality of life, destination and attractive investment offering
– Invest in innovation and creativity hubs (Hiddingh creative campus,
Sustainability hub)
– Support innovation and cultural showcases
– Re-position as most cosmopolitan, vibrant centre for especially African
artists, entrepeneurs, scientists (affordable well-located housing)
•
Preconditions
– Dynamic partnership of universities, venture capitalists and government
– Excellent ICT infrastructure
– Growth in technical and artisanal capacity
Strategy
3. Ecological Leader
•
•
Position CTR as a global sustainable resource use leader as
foundation for strategic positioning (destination and innovator)
and to manage exaggerated environmental risk
How?
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Energy Consortium (wind farms, geothermal energy, efficiency etc)
Closed loop water and sanitation system?
Full-scale waste separation and re-use system
Long-term regional settlement framework to optimise densities,
strategic use of land and secure well located affordable housing
opportunities + land reform
Extended C.A.P.E and Urban Biospheres approach
Sustainable agriculture initiative
Public transport revolution
Sustainability innovation hub in partnership with HEIs
Strategy
4. Job Accelerator
• Initiate major partnership effort to substantially improve
employment-growth linkage and to substantially reduce
unemployment rate as key driver of reducing poverty and
exclusion
• How?
– Create new high end jobs as driver of medium and entry level jobs
– Major public-private investment in employment intermediation
services (focused on matrics)
– Accelerated regional partnership re internships and
apprenticeships to bridge employment and technical gap
• Preconditions
– Improved school + FET outcomes
– Improved 24/7 public transport
Strategy
5. Leadership and networks
• Build leadership, cross-institutional and community
networks and inter-community/institutional dialogue as a
foundation for social resilience and development
• Community level
– Partnerships for quality ECD
– “Centres of Hope”
– Anti-crime and anti-drug, alcohol abuse initiative support
programme (research, training etc)
– Community development awards programme
• City-regional level
– CTR Development Network
– Partnership development co-ordination at regional level
– Inter-governmental alignment mechanisms
Strategy
6. Fundamentals
Area
Quality transport infrastructure and services (including car competitive public
transport and efficient port, airport and logistics infrastructure )
Reliable and cost competitive utility and telecommunications infrastructure
and services
Efficient predictable strategy-supporting land use and natural resource
management system
Effective safety, security and regulatory/enforcement system
Proactive and responsive economic support infrastructure
Quality educational and research infrastructure and services geared to
growth and inclusion needs
Health and social welfare infrastructure and services ensuring basics for all
Effective governance arrangements at community, municipal, regional and
provincial levels
Annual independent assessment…………
Intended Outcomes – Growth, Inclusion
and Sustainability
Performance
Change wedges
Baseline
Time
Inspirational
Destination
Sustainability
Leader
Creativity Hotspot
Employment maximisation
Leadership and Networks
Fundamentals