October 2010
THE “BIG PICTURE” FOR
LABOR MARKETS
) U.S. EMPLOYMENT: TOTAL NON-FARM JOBS FELL BY 54,000 IN
AUGUST FOLLOWING A REVISED LOSS OF 54,000 JOBS IN JULY.
SINCE THE RECESSION BEGAN IN DECEMBER 2007, THE DOMESTIC
ECONOMY HAS NOW LOST 7.640 MILLION JOBS THROUGH AUGUST
2010, DOWN 5.5%. U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT WAS RECORDED AT 9.6% IN
AUGUST, UP ONE-TENTH OF ONE PERCENT FROM JULY 2010.
) CONNECTICUT EMPLOYMENT: THE CT. ECONOMY LOST 900 JOBS IN
AUGUST 2010. SINCE MARCH 2008 CT. HAS SHED 95,400 JOBS, OR
5.6%. IN AUGUST, JOB GAINS WERE RECORDED IN EDUCATION AND
HEALTH SERVICES (+2,000 JOBS), FINANCE (+900 JOBS) AND TRADE,
TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILS (+1,000). LOSSES WERE
RECORDED IN BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES (-1,600),
AND MANUFACTURING (-300 JOBS).
) NEW HAVEN LABOR MARKET AREA: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN
THE NEW HAVEN LMA HAS DECLINED BY 13,900 JOBS, OR 5.0%,
FROM THE MARCH 2008 PEAK OF 279,500 JOBS TO 265,600 JOBS AS
OF AUGUST 2010.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE COMPARISON
CONNECTICUT vs. U.S.
UNEMPLOYMENT%
11
10
THE U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HIT A 26-YEAR HIGH
IN OCTOBER 2009 AT 10.2% - UNEMPLOYMENT IS APT
TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
2010 EVEN AS THE ECONOMY IMPROVES
U.S.
9
8
U.S. RATE (SA, AUGUST 2010): 9.6%
CT. RATE (SA, AUGUST 2010): 9.1%
CT
7
6
5
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
07
08
09
10
SOURCE: U.S. DEPT. OF LABOR, CT LABOR DEPT. , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
THE “EFFECTIVE” U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
THE U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT CALCULATION FROM BLS
AUG 2010
# OFFICIALLY UNEMPLOYED
14,860,000
# WORKING PART-TIME WANTING FT
8,860,000
# MARGINALLY ATTACHED
2,370,000
TOTAL
26,090,000
TOTAL LABOR FORCE PLUS MARGINALLY
ATTACHED
156,480,000
OVERALL UNEMPLOYMENT %
16.7%
SOURCE: BLS, DATA AS OF AUGUST 2010
NOTE: Marginally attached workers are persons who want a job, have searched for work during the prior 12
months, and were available to take a job during the reference week, but had not looked for work in the past 4
weeks. This group includes discouraged workers who have given up looking for work.
NUMBERS OF U.S. LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED WORKERS
(UNEMPLOYED FOR 27+ WEEKS)
MILLIONS
THE NUMBER OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED WORKERS HAS SURGED TO
6.249 MILLION AS OF AUGUST 2010
MORE THAN TRIPLE THE LEVELS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RECESSIONS
6
4
2
0
3
1
91
1
92
1
93
1
94
1
95
1
96
1
97
1
98
1
99
1
00
1
01
YEARS
SOURCE: U.S. DEPT. OF LABOR
1
02
1
03
1
04
1
05
1
06
1
07
1
08
1
09 10
MONTHS OF U.S. RECOVERY NEEDED TO REACH PRIOR U.S.
EMPLOYMENT PEAK FOLLOWING RECESSION TROUGH
50
Q: HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY TO GAIN BACK
ALL THE JOBS LOST IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN?
40
CURRENT PEAK JOB LOSS IS NOW 8.4 MILLION JOBS AS OF DEC
2009. STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE DOMESTIC LABOR MARKETS,
COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE GROWTH IN THE GLOBAL LABOR
MARKETS, SUGGESTS 40+ MONTHS IF HISTORY IS ANY INDICATION.
39
30
23
20
13
12
10
10
12
11
10
6
???
0
53-54
57-58
60-61
SOURCE: U.S. DEPT. OF LABOR
SOURCE: BLS
70
73-75
80
81-82
90-91
'01
'08-'10
CUMULATIVE CT. JOB LOSSES FROM
March 2008 PEAK LEVELS TO PRESENT (000)
20
THE CT. ECONOMY HAS LOST 95,400 JOBS BETWEEN March 2008
AND August 2010. THE PEAK LOSS OCCURRED IN DEC 09: 103,400 JOBS
0
-2 -2.4
-20
-5.4
-11.7-12.8
-17.7
-23.3
-30.6
-40
-39.7
-48.6
-60
-55.9
-66.4
-80
-80.4-80.7
-88.3
-90.4-90.1
-92.9
-93.9
-94.3
-94.5-95.4
-96.5-97.9
-97.5
-100
-100.2
-100.8
-103.4
-100
-120
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
08
09
10
SOURCE: CT. DEPT. OF LABOR DEPT.
MONTHS
% CHANGE IN TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT,
NEW HAVEN LMA VS. CONNECTICUT AND THE U.S. SINCE START
OF U.S. RECESSION (DEC 2007), DEC 2007-AUG 2010
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-4.5%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-5.5%
-5.2%
-7.0%
U.S.
CONNECTICUT
SOURCES: U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, CT. LABOR DEPT.
NEW HAVEN LMA
CUMULATIVE NEW HAVEN LMA JOB LOSSES FROM
March 2008 PEAK LEVELS TO PRESENT (000)
Thousands
5
THE NEW HAVEN LMA ECONOMY HAS LOST 13,900 JOBS BETWEEN March 2008
AND AUGUST 2010. THE PEAK LOSS OCCURRED IN OCT 09: DOWN 16,000 JOBS
0
-1 -1.3
-2.3
-5
-2.9
-3.3
-3.7
-4.7 -4.8
-6.5
-8.2
-10
-9.6
-11.2
-12.7
-12.8
-13.1
-14
-15
-14.7
-15.1-15.3
-15.1-15.3
-12.5
-13.4
-13.5
-14.7-14.6
-14.2-13.9
-16
-20
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
08
09
10
SOURCE: CT. DEPT. OF LABOR DEPT.
MONTHS
ABSOLUTE CHANGE IN NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT
BY SECTOR - NEW HAVEN LABOR MARKET AREA -MAR 08-AUG 10
LEISURE & HOSP.
HEALTH CARE/SOC SVS
OTHER SVS
CONSTRUCTION
EDUCATION
2,600
TOTAL NON-FARM
EMPLOYMENT HAS
DECLINED BY 13,900
JOBS OR 5% SINCE THE
REGION’S EMPLOYMENT
PEAK IN March 2008.
FINANCE
-100
-700
-700
-1,100
INFORMATION
-1,800
TRADE, TRANS, & UTILS
-1,900
BUS. & PROF SVS
-2,100
MANUFACTURING
GOVT
2,400
-4,500
-6,000
-8,000 -7,000 -6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000
0
1,000
2,000
Sources:SA employment totals: CT Labor Dept, BLS
Note: Sectoral change calculations made by DataCore Partners LLC and are approximate. They are based on
DataCore Partners LLC mathematical algorithms that share out NSA data to SA totals.
3,000
SOUTH CENTRAL UNEMPLOYMENT %- AUG 2010
RANKED ORDERED BY MUNICIPALITY
New Haven
Meriden
West Haven
East Haven
Hamden
East Hampton
Milford
North Haven
Wallingford
Middletown
Branford
North Branford
Middlefield
Cromwell
Bethany
Portland
Deep River
East Haddam
Westbrook
Clinton
Haddam
Orange
Guilford
Old Saybrook
Durham
Chester
Killingworth
Essex
Woodbridge
Madison
0.0%
Sources:CT LABOR DEPT
13.4%
11.1%
10.7%
10.1%
9.4%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
8.9%
8.4%
8.0%
7.8%
7.6%
7.5%
7.5%
7.4%
7.3%
7.3%
7.2%
7.2%
7.2%
WA AREA
6.9%
6.8%
TOTAL: 9.4%
6.8%
FOUR MUNICIPALITIES
6.7%
6.6%
HAVE UNEMPLOYMENT
6.4%
RATES THAT NOW
6.3%
6.1%
EXCEED 10%.
6.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
# OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS
SOUTH CENTRAL WORKFORCE AREA - AUG 2010
New Haven
Meriden
West Haven
Milford
Hamden
Wallingford
Middletown
East Haven
Branford
North Haven
Guilford
North Branford
East Hampton
Madison
Cromwell
Clinton
Orange
Portland
East Haddam
Old Saybrook
Haddam
Woodbridge
Durham
Westbrook
Essex
Bethany
Killingworth
Deep River
Middlefield
Chester
7,767
3,618
3,248
3,028
2,972
2,310
2,309
1,682
1,404
1,213
904
667
662
611
601
577
503
404
386
376
363
302
293
271
241
239
234
191
184
151
0
Sources: CT LABOR DEPT, NSA DATA
WORKFORCE AREA TOTAL: 37,711.
THE THREE MUNICIPALITIES OF NEW
HAVEN, MERIDEN AND WEST HAVEN
REPRESENT 14,633 UNEMPLOYED
WORKERS, OR 39% OF THE WA
REGIONAL TOTALS.
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
LABOR MARKET SUMMARY STATISTICS
SOUTH CENTRAL WIA VS. CT AND U.S.
JAN 08
JAN 09
MAY10
AUG 10
WA AREA-LABOR FORCE
391,663
396,395
398,590
402,455
WA AREA- # EMPLOYED
370,898
366,147
363,380
364,744
WA AREA-# UNEMPLOYED
20,765
30,248
35,210
37,711
NOTE: COMPARING DIFFERENT MONTHS WITH ACCURACY REQUIRES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA, WHICH IS NOT AVAILABLE.
WA AREAUNEMPLOYMENT %
5.3%
7.6%
8.8%
9.4%
CT- UNEMPLOYMENT %
5.4%
7.3%
8.8%
9.3%
U.S.-UNEMPLOYMENT %
5.4%
7.6%
9.3%
9.5%
SOURCE: DATACORE PARTNERS LLC, BLS
NOTE: NON-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA (NSA)