SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6
Environment (including Climate Change)
Adaptive strategies to Mitigate the
Impacts of Climate Change on
European Freshwater Ecosystems
Martin Kernan
Environmental Change Research Centre
University College London
Collaborative large-scale integrating project
Started: Feb 1st 2010
Duration: 4 years
Consortium of 25 partners (Europe, Canada & Australia)
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
“The REFRESH programme is concerned with the development of a system
that will enable water managers to design cost-effective restoration
programmes for freshwater ecosystems at the local and catchment scales
that account for the expected future impacts of climate change and land-use
change in the context of the Water Framework and Habitats Directives”
“At its centre is a process-based evaluation of the specific adaptive measures that
might be taken at these different scales to minimise the expected adverse
consequences of climate change on freshwater quantity, quality and biodiversity.”
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
REFRESH – Project structure
WP1 Strategies, scenarios, stakeholders
T1 Adaptation Strategies
WP2 Rivers
T2 Scenarios
T3 Engaging Stakeholders
WP3 Lakes
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T1 Temperature
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T2 Water level
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients
T3 Nutrients, OM
T3 Nutrients
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
WP6
Cost effectiveness
WP5
Integrated Modelling
Ecosystem models
Model Chaining
Management options
Uncertainty
Bridging
WP7
Dissemination
Best practice strategy
Stakeholder workshops
Demonstration case studies
Policy oriented reports
Profiling catchments
Sub-catchments
Scoping solutions
Cost-effectiveness analyses
Wider benefits
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP1 Strategies, scenarios, stakeholders
Setting the scene…..
Adaptation Strategies
Reviews of strategies for rivers, wetlands
and lakes at different scales
Scenarios for Europe (2010-2060)
CLIMATE
LAND-USE
N DEPOSITION
WATER RESOURCE USE
The scenario framework will be used to
develop a series of coherent storylines for
demonstration catchments
Engaging stakeholders
Early dialogue with the user community
with respect to the scenarios and
storylines to be used in REFRESH
Explore potential barriers to the
implementation of measures being
evaluated.
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Further our understanding of the processes that govern the relationship between
temperature, hydrology (and salinity) and nutrient/organic matter loading and the
structure, function and biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems;
WP2 Rivers
WP3 Lakes
T1 Temperature
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T1 Temperature
T2 Water level
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients, OM
T3 Nutrients
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
T2 Drought
T3 Nutrients
Co-ordinated
Experiments
Rivers &
Wetlands
Field & mesocosms experiments, time series analyses,
palaeolimnology, modelling
Understanding how the functioning of freshwater ecosystems is affected by climate
change
While earlier studies on climate change, including Euro-limpacs, focused on trophic
structure, relatively little is known about how climate change affects ecosystem
functioning. Controlling ecosystem functioning is at the heart of adaptive
management
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
STREAMS & RIPARIAN WETLAND EXPERIMENTS
STREAMS
Better understand temperature processes
Identify temperature disturbance regime
Better understand low flow/drought processes
Identify low flow/drought disturbance regime
Better understand nutrient / OM processes
Identify nutrient / OM disturbance regime
To understand better the processes and effects of
multiple stress induced by climate/global change upon
river ecosystem functioning and biodiversity and use
this to identify adaptive management measures.
Low
Low
Nutrients
Shading experiments
Nutrients
WETLANDS
Impacts of temperature on wetland
functioning and biodiversity
Impacts of changes in flooding and
drought on wetland functioning and
biodiversity
Impacts of nutrient loading on effects of
increased temperature and flooding
(interactions with changes in hydrologicl
regime)
High
Low
Nutrients
High
High
Drought/low-flow experiments
Flooding experiments
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
LAKE EXPERIMENTS
Temperature constraints on
management success in lakes
Water level (salinity) constraints
Nutrient and organic matter
constraints on management
success in lakes
Mesocosms
Effects on trophic
structure, ecological
function and
biodiversity
Lake level experiments
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Field experiments in along latitude gradient in Europe (from
Sweden to Turkey)
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP2 Rivers
WP3 Lakes
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T1 Temperature
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T2 Water level
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients
T3 Nutrients, OM
T3 Nutrients
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
THRESHOLDS & REFERENCE
CONDITIONS
Identify ecological relevant thresholds and
dynamic reference conditions in streams
INDICATORS
Identify key effect parameters
(indicators) for climate change
in streams
What are temperature, flooding and nutrient
loading thresholds for riparian wetland key
functions and biodiversity? Can we define
reference conditions?
Which ecological response
variables can be used as
indicators for wetland key
functions and biodiversity?
Tools for vulnerability
assessment?
Guidelines on thresholds for temperature,
water level, salinity, nutrients and organic
matter in European lakes – identification of
reference conditions with a flexible, change
based methodology
Identify ecological indicators
and functional response
parameters of temperature,
flow and nutrients / OM
ADAPTATION
Identify adaptive management
strategies in streams, riparian
wetlands and lakes
METHODS
review existing data;
meta-analysis;
spatial and time
series datasets;
palaeolimnology
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
New indicators of functional response, tools for assessing vulnerability and
dynamic reference conditions
In REFRESH we will develop a new set of system indicators for freshwaters
focusing essentially on ecological indicators sensitive to the functional
response of rivers, lakes and wetlands to changes in temperature, flow/waterlevel and nutrient/organic matter loading. We will also develop new tools for
assessing vulnerability to climate change which take into account both site
specific and landscape (e.g. associated with connectivity, dispersal migration)
scale threats. We will examine how the concept of a dynamic reference
condition can be built into WFD and HD methodologies.
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP2 Rivers
WP3 Lakes
WP4 Wetlands
T1 Temperature
T1 Temperature
T1 Temperature
T2 Drought
T2 Water level
T2 Drought/Flood
T3 Nutrients
T3 Nutrients, OM
T3 Nutrients
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T4 Thresholds
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T5 Indicators
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
T6 Adaptation
WP5
Integrated Modelling
Ecosystem models
Model Chaining
Management options
Uncertainty
Bridging
INTEGRATED
CATCHMENT
MODELLING
“Ultimate objective … develop parsimonious integrated
models… robust simulations of future water quantity,
quality and ecology at the catchment scale”
Objectives – better:
1. Inclusion of ecology
2. Connectivity
3. Scenario assessment (with uncertainty) to design
adaptation and cost effective restoration at local and
catchment scales
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
1. Integration of ecosystem models for
rivers, lakes and wetlands with models
of key ecological vulnerability indicators
to determine interactions between
climate and land use management
change and freshwater ecology
Ecological response –
functional parameters
Catchment
Biogeochemical Model
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
2. Integrated and
chained models to
couple river, lake and
wetland systems to the
river catchment scale
AOGCM
T, P
RCM
HBV
MAGIC
Q
NO3
INCA-N
HER,
SMD
NO3
+ Wind
speed
Chaining the new hydrological – water quality –
ecological models means complex systems
which incorporate a mixture of rivers, lakes,
wetlands and the riparian zone can be
considered
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
FJORD
Q
COST-EFFECTIVE MITIGATION
ADAPTATION AND RESTORATION
STRATEGIES
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
OBJECTIVES
• To discover what
anthropogenic practices
compromise water quality
and/or environmental quality
in selected European
catchments
• To find cost-effective means
of mitigating climate-change
induced damage to water
quality and consider
reinstatement possibilities
• To assess whether these
compliance costs are
proportionate
• To assess whether
compliance delivers
changes in the values of
other ecosystem services
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Application of model chains at key demonstration sites to determine the
ecological response (using vulnerability indices) to climate and land-cover
change for different adaptation, mitigation and restoration options
Downscaled climate scenarios
Land use scenarios
Deposition scenarios
Water use scenarios
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP1.
Adaptation / response
Storylines /
scenarios
MODEL
OUTCOME
This work is likely to be done on a sub-catchment
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
WP1.
Yes
WP6.
Adaptation / response
Storylines /
scenarios
MODEL
No
OUTCOME
x3
max.
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Meets
WFD,
HD?
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010
Engaging Stakeholders
To feed into Project design
Workshops involving stakeholders
Barriers to implementation workshop in Autumn 2010
1st: Scotland (River Dee)
2nd: Greece (River Loures)
High-level stakeholder workshop
April 2011 possibly together with the next project meeting
2-3 regional representatives per demonstration catchment
Dissemination
Usual means …Web site etc - http://www.refresh.ucl.ac.uk/
Regional stakeholder workshops
Best practice strategy documents
Demonstration case studies
Cross sectoral policy briefings
NCCARF Climate Adaptation Futures Conference – Gold Coast 29 June – 1 July 2010