IJMMS 2003:48, 3041–3046 PII. S0161171203212229 http://ijmms.hindawi.com © Hindawi Publishing Corp. A NONUNIFORM BOUND FOR THE APPROXIMATION OF POISSON BINOMIAL BY POISSON DISTRIBUTION K. NEAMMANEE Received 18 December 2002 It is well known that Poisson binomial distribution can be approximated by Poisson distribution. In this paper, we give a nonuniform bound of this approximation by using Stein-Chen method. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60F05, 60G50. 1. Introduction and main result. Let X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn be independent, possibly not identically distributed, Bernoulli random variables with P (Xi = 1) = 1 − P (Xi = 0) = pi and let Sn = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn . The sum of this kind is often called a Poisson binomial random variable. In the case where the “success” probabilities are all identical, pi = p, S is the binomial random variable Ꮾ(n, p). n Let λ = i=1 pi and let ᏼλ be the Poisson random variable with parameter λ, that is, P (ᏼλ = ω) = e−λ λω /ω! for all nonnegative integers ω. It has long been known that if pi ’s are small, then the distribution of Sn can be approximated by a distribution of ᏼλ (see, e.g., Chen [2]). In this paper, we investigate the bound of this approximation. As an illustration, we look at the case of p1 = p2 = · · · = pn = p. There are at least three √ known uniform bounds: Kennedy and Quine [6] showed that, for 0 < λ ≤ 2− 2, P Sn ≤ ω − P ᏼλ ≤ ω ≤ 2λ (1 − p)n−1 − e−np , (1.1) Barbour and Hall [1] showed that P Sn ≤ ω − P ᏼλ ≤ ω ≤ min(p, λp), (1.2) and Deheuvels and Pfeifer [5] proved that P Sn ≤ ω − P ᏼλ ≤ ω (a−1) (a − np) (np)(b−1) (b − np) −λ (np) ≤ λpe − +R a! b! (1.3) with a = [np + 1/2 + np + 1/4], b = [np + 1/2 − np + 1/4], and |R| ≤ (1/2)(2p)3/2 /(1 − 2p), for 0 < p < 1/2, and [x] is understood to be the integer part of x. 3042 K. NEAMMANEE For the general case, Le Cam [7] investigated and showed that ∞ n −λ ω P Sn = ω − e λ ≤ 16 p2 . ω! λ i=1 i ω=0 (1.4) It can be observed that the constant 16/λ will be large when λ is small. Stein [10] used the method of Chen [3] to improve the bound and showed that n P Sn ≤ ω − P ᏼλ ≤ ω ≤ λ−1 ∧ 1 p2 i=1 i (1.5) for ω = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n and λ−1 ∧ 1 = min(λ−1 , 1). In case when λ tends to 0, one can see that (1.5) becomes n P Sn ≤ ω − P ᏼλ ≤ ω ≤ p2 . i=1 (1.6) i In this paper, we consider a nonuniform bound when λ is small, that is, λ ∈ (0, 1] and ω ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n − 1}. Note that, when ω ∉ {1, 2, . . . , n − 1}, we can compute the exact probabilities, that is, n P Sn = 0 = 1 − pi , n pj , P Sn = n = i=1 P Sn = ω = 0, j=1 (1.7) ω = n + 1, n + 2, . . . . In finding the uniform bound, there are several techniques which can be used; for example, (i) the operator method initiated in Le Cam [7], (ii) the semigroup approach due to Deheuvels and Pfeifer [4], (iii) the Chen-Stein technique, see Chen [3] and Stein [10], (iv) direct computations as in Kennedy and Quine [6], (v) the coupling method, see Serfling [8] and Stein [10]. In the present paper, our argument closely follows the Chen-Stein technique in Chen [3] and Stein [10]. The following theorem is our main result. Theorem 1.1. Let λ ∈ (0, 1] and ω0 ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n − 1}. Then n P Sn = ω0 − P ᏼλ = ω0 ≤ 1 p2 . ω0 i=1 i (1.8) 2. Proof of the main result. Stein [9] gave a new technique to find a bound in the normal approximation to a distribution of a sum of dependent random variables. His technique was free from Fourier methods and relied instead on the elementary differential equation f (ω) − wf (ω) = h(ω) − N(h), (2.1) A NONUNIFORM BOUND FOR THE APPROXIMATION OF POISSON . . . 3043 where h is a function that is used to test convergence and N(h) = E[h(Z)] where Z is the standard normal. Chen [3] applied Stein’s ideas in the Poisson setting. Corresponding to the differential equation in the normal case above, one has an analogous difference equation λf (ω + 1) − ωf (ω) = h(ω) − ᏼλ (h), (2.2) where ᏼλ (h) = E[h(ᏼλ )] and f and h are real-valued functions defined on Z+ ∪ {0}. Let ω0 ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n − 1} and define h, hω0 : Z+ ∪ {0} → R by h(ω) = 1, if ω = ω0 , 0, if ω ≠ ω0 , 1, hω0 (ω) = 0, if ω ≤ ω0 , if ω > ω0 . (2.3) Then we see that the solution f of (2.2) can be expressed in the form (ω − 1)! λω0 −ω ᏼλ 1 − hω−1 , ω ! 0 fω0 (ω) = − (ω − 1)! λω0 −ω ᏼ h λ ω−1 , ω0 ! 0, if ω0 < ω, if ω0 ≥ ω > 0, (2.4) if ω = 0, λE fω0 Sn + 1 − E Sn fω0 Sn = P Sn = ω0 − P ᏼλ = ω0 . (2.5) (i) Let Sn = Sn − Xi for i = 1, 2, . . . , n. By using the facts that each Xj takes on values 0 and 1 and that Xj ’s are independent, we have n E Sn fω0 Sn = pi E f Sn(i) + 1 i=1 n = λE fω0 Sn + 1 + pi E fω0 Sn(i) + 1 − fω0 Sn + 1 i=1 n pi E Xi fω0 Sn(i) + 1 − fω0 Sn(i) + 2 = λE fω0 Sn + 1 + i=1 n = λE fω0 Sn + 1 + pi2 E fω0 Sn(i) + 1 − fω0 Sn(i) + 2 , i=1 (2.6) which implies, by (2.5), that n pi2 E fω0 Sn(i) + 2 − fω0 Sn(i) + 1 . P Sn = ω0 − P ᏼλ = ω0 = i=1 (2.7) 3044 K. NEAMMANEE From (2.4), it follows that fω0 (ω + 2) − fω0 (ω + 1) ω! (ω + 1)ᏼλ hω+1 − λᏼλ hω , −λω0 −ω−2 ω ! 0 ω! (ω + 1)ᏼλ 1 − hω+1 + λᏼλ hω , = λω0 −ω−2 ω ! 0 ω! λω0 −ω−2 (ω + 1)ᏼλ 1 − hω+1 − λᏼλ 1 − hω , ω0 ! if ω ≤ ω0 − 2, if ω = ω0 − 1, if ω ≥ ω0 . (2.8) Case 1 (ω ≤ ω0 −2). Since ω+1 λk (ω + 1 − k), (ω + 1)ᏼλ hω+1 − λᏼλ hω = e−λ k! k=0 (2.9) we have ω+1 λk fω (ω + 2) − fω (ω + 1) = λ(ω0 −2)−ω ω! e−λ (ω + 1 − k) 0 0 ω0 ! k! k=0 ω+1 (ω + 1)! −λ λk ≤ e ω0 ! k! k=0 (2.10) ω0 − 1 ! ≤ ω0 ! = 1 , ω0 where we have used the facts that λ ∈ (0, 1] and 0 ≤ ω + 1 − k ≤ ω + 1 in the ω+1 first inequality and the conditions ω ≤ ω0 − 2 and e−λ k=0 (λk /k!) ≤ 1 in the second inequality. Case 2 (ω = ω0 − 1). We have ω0 −1 k ∞ −1 λ λk −λ fω (ω + 2) − fω (ω + 1) = λ ω0 e−λ + λe 0 0 ω0 k! k! k=ω +1 k=0 0 ω0 −1 ∞ k+1 λ−1 −λ λk λ ≤ + e−λ k (k + 1) e ω0 k! (k + 1)! k=ω +1 k=0 0 = λ−1 E ᏼλ ω0 = 1 . ω0 (2.11) A NONUNIFORM BOUND FOR THE APPROXIMATION OF POISSON . . . 3045 Case 3 (ω ≥ ω0 ). Since 2λω+3 3λω+4 1λω+2 + + +··· (ω + 2)! (ω + 3)! (ω + 4)! ω 0 λ ω0 ω0 + 1 λω0 +1 ω−ω0 +2 ≤λ + +··· ω0 + 1 ! ω0 + 2 · · · (ω + 3) ω0 ! ω0 + 1 · · · (ω + 2) ∞ kλk λω−ω0 +2 ≤ ω0 + 1 ω0 + 2 · · · (ω + 2) k=ω k! e λ E ᏼλ ≤ ω0 + 1 ω0 + 2 · · · (ω + 2) λ 0 ω−ω0 +2 eλ λω−ω0 +3 = , ω0 + 1 ω0 + 2 · · · (ω + 2) ∞ (ω + 1)ᏼλ 1 − hω+1 − λᏼλ 1 − hω = −e−λ λk k − (ω + 1) < 0, k! k=ω+2 (2.12) we have ∞ λk fω (ω + 2) − fω (ω + 1) = λω0 −ω−2 ω! e−λ k − (ω + 1) 0 0 ω0 ! k! k=ω+2 λω! 1 ≤ ≤ . (ω + 2)! (ω + 1)(ω + 2) (2.13) From Cases 1, 2, and 3, we conclude that fω (ω + 2) − fω (ω + 1) ≤ 1 . 0 0 ω0 (2.14) By (2.7) and (2.14), we have P Sn = ω0 − P ᏼλ = ω0 n n 1 2 2 pi E fω0 Sn(i) + 2 − fω0 Sn(i) + 1 ≤ p . ≤ ω0 i=1 i i=1 (2.15) Acknowledgment. The author would like to thank the insightful comments from the referees and financial support by Thailand Research Fund. References [1] [2] [3] A. D. Barbour and P. Hall, On the rate of Poisson convergence, Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 95 (1984), no. 3, 473–480. L. H. Y. 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Stein, A bound for the error in the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of dependent random variables, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol. II: Probability Theory (Univ. California, Berkeley, Calif, 1970/1971), University of California Press, California, 1972, pp. 583–602. , Approximate Computation of Expectations, Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes—Monograph Series, vol. 7, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, California, 1986. K. Neammanee: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand E-mail address: kritsana.n@chula.ac.th