The Potential Impact of
Electric Vehicles on
BCHydro’s Load
Frank S. McGowan
Market Forecast
November 14, 2008
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Contents
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BC Hydro
Surge of Interest in Electric Vehicles
Advantages and Disadvantages
Potential Impact on Load
A Model of EV Introduction and Load
Scenarios and Uncertainty
Conclusion
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BC Hydro
• BC Hydro is the major provider of electricity in the province of
British Columbia.
• It is the third largest electric utility in Canada
• 1.8 million customers in an area containing over 94 per cent of
BC's population. (4,417,500 in 2008).
• Generating capacity over 11,000 megawatts (MW)
• 90.3% from hydroelectric sources .
• BC Hydro's various facilities generate between 43,000 and
54,000 gigawatt hours of electricity annually, depending on
prevailing water levels.
• For fiscal 2007, domestic electric sales volume reached
53,300 gigawatt hours.
• Net income was $369 million in fiscal 2008 and $407 million
in fiscal 2007.
• New Energy – Green Emphasis
– Independent Power Producers
– Site-C
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Surge of interest in Electric Vehicles
• All of the major domestic and foreign automakers
have announced plans to begin to market some sort
of electric vehicle and the only question is when
they'll actually ramp up production.
• The implications may be enormous for the world's
environment, for the auto and petroleum industries,
for consumers and, of course, for the electric utility
industry.
• Within five years, we may begin to see meaningful
penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and
pure electric vehicles. (Or maybe not).
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Chevy Volt
• General Motors is designing the Chevy Volt to run on electricity
alone for up to 40 miles. So for more than 85 percent of American
commuters, the Volt would indeed work like a pure E.V., using no
gasoline and delivering up to 150 m.p.g. G.M. hopes to bring a car
like the Volt to market by 2011 or 2012.
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http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2007/09/21/automobiles/20070923AUTO_8.html
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Tesla Roadster
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The Tesla Roadster has attracted unprecedented interest in electric vehicle's thanks to its sexy
looks, its blistering acceleration (0 to 60 m.p.h. in less than four seconds) and a driving range that
was just revised upward to 245 miles.
Price $109,000
Tesla motors has postponed development of a $60,000 Sedan.
Tesla motors will lay off 24% of workforce, delays introduction of electric-powered sedan.
Credit and recession issues cited.
CEO Dismissed
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The Lightning Car Company
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100% ELECTRIC POWER - That delivers ultra smooth, full power immediately from zero rpm.
True to its name, the Lightning GT could be charged in approximately 10 minutes for up to 200
miles of motoring, which would make long journeys a breeze. Full regenerative braking means the
battery receives charge every time you decelerate.
UNCOMPROMISING PERFORMANCE - 0-60mph in just 5 seconds will be standard for the
Lightning and we believe the
Price $240,000
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Chrysler
Announces at least one by 2010
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AUBURN HILLS, Mich. October 21 — Chrysler on Tuesday showed three plug-in electric
cars, one of which will be in showrooms in 2010 as part of a plan to eventually use electric
power in some form across its entire product line.
An electric power-train with a small backup gasoline engine to recharge the batteries after
about 40 miles when the plug-in charge is used up was shown in a Chrysler Town &
Country minivan and a Jeep Wrangler. Also on display was an all-electric Dodge sports car
called the EV. It has only a lithium-ion battery with a range of about 150 miles before it
must be recharged externally.
USA Today consumer poll: Sports 29%, Mini-Van 46%, Jeep 25%.
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Published: February 7, 1915
Copyright © The New York Times
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1900 Lohner-Porsche Hybrid Vehicle
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Advantages of Electric Vehicles
• Large Fuel Cost Advantage
• Environmental Benefits
– Shift of Emissions away from populated areas
to electric generation sites.
– Quantitative improvement in emissions
compared to gasoline vehicles.
• CO2, SO2, etc.
– Quieter operation reduces noise pollution.
• Reduction of dependence on Foreign Oil
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Disadvantages of Electric Vehicles
• Limited Range
• High Capital Cost
• Lack of Infrastructure
– Charging facilities
– Repair facilities
• Reliability Uncertainty
• Design, style and size of vehicles
• Acceptance by public
• Acceptance by manufacturers
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Maximum Potential
• All motor vehicles become electric in 2028.
• Energy Consumption by Electric vehicles
– 11.5 TWh.
• Reference Case Forecast
– 62.7 TWh.
• Total Load
– 74.2 TWh.
• Percent increase over Reference Case
– 18.3%
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15.4%
18.3%
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A Model of Electric Vehicle Introduction and Load
• Forecasts for 2008-2028:
– Number of Motor Vehicles in BC
– Fraction that are Plug in Electric or Plug in Hybrid
Vehicles.
– Stock of Electric Vehicles
– Consumption of Electric Energy
due to Electric Vehicles (GWh.)
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The Electric Vehicle Model
• Key Variables:
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Population
Number of Vehicles of all types.
Gasoline Prices
Electricity Prices
Fuel Efficiency (miles per gal. and KWh per km)
Distance traveled
Capital Costs
Infrastructure
Design and taste
Government Policy
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The Electric Vehicle Model
• Forecasts the Total Number of Vehicles
– Uses Population forecast from BC Stats.
– Vehicles per capita from regression on historical data.
– Forecasts vehicles retired and new vehicles.
• Calculates Cost Advantage. Gasoline or EV?
– Depends on relative efficiency mpg. , KWh./km
– Depends on Fuel Prices and Capital Costs.
• Forecasts Number of Electric Vehicles
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First let all new vehicles be of the type with Cost Advantage.
Distance constraints limit the fraction of these that will be purchased.
Modulate this by manufacturing availability, infrastructure and taste.
Use purchases and retirements to update stock of EVs.
• Forecasts Load due to Electric Vehicles
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38%
52%
10%
Fractions Less than Break Even or Greater Than Range Constraint Not Purchased
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Significance of Distribution of Distance Traveled
• Total annual cost the number of km driven.
– In the usual cases where electric vehicles have a fuel cost advantage
and a capital cost disadvantage, The total cost advantage for electric
vehicles increases with km driven, but may start out being negative.
So there is a break even number of km at which point Total annual
costs ate equal for both types of vehicles.
• For distances less than break even EVs will Not be
purchased. 38% on Graph.
• For distances greater than a range constraint (30,000 km),
EVs will not be purchased. 10% on Graph.
• Therefore, only 52% of new vehicles will be electric.
• If electric vehicles have a cost advantage at the mean, which
they do in all our scenarios one cannot, then, conclude that
100% of new vehicles purchased will be electric. That would
be a great over estimate.
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18% over Ref.
11% over Ref.
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Uncertainty Scenarios in Six key parameters
• KWh per km
– RiskTriang(0.10, 0.20, 0.30)
• Distance Traveled (km per year)
– RiskTriang(12,736, 16,736, 20,736)
• Retirement % (fraction of vehicles retired per year)
– RiskTriang(3%, 5%, 10%)
• Initial gasoline price ($ per liter)
– RiskTriang($1.00, $1.33, $1.66)
– RiskTriang($0.60, $1.10, $1.70)
– RiskTriang($0.60, $1.10, $1.70)
Scenario Set 1
Scenario Set 2
Scenario Set 3
• Rate of increase of gasoline price (%)
– RiskTriang(2%, 6%, 10%)
– NYMEX Oct. 27 Crude percentages
BC Hydro Rate percentages
Scenario Sets 1 and 2
Scenario Set 3
• Purchase Price of Electric Vehicle
– RiskTriang($25 000, $35 000, $37 000)
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Scenario Set 1
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Scenario Set 1
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Scenario Set 2
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Scenario Set 2
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With probability 90%, the percent of vehicles that are electric in 2028 lies in the interval [ 45% to 73%]
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With probability 90%, Electric Vehicle Energy Load will lie in the interval [1,958 to 11,573] GWh.
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Emissions
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Emissions for electric vehicles depend on how electricity is produced.
If natural gas is the dominant generation fuel the electric car emissions
would be close to the 4.50 Tons per year of natural gas.
But BC Hydro is 90% Hydro, so emissions in BC would be drastically
reduced to 0.45 Tons per year.
Electric vehicles don't produce pollution through fuel evaporation.
Electric vehicles don't produce pollution from the tailpipe which means they
have great potential to reduce smog-forming pollutants (sulfur and nitrogen
compounds), especially in urban areas.
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E1 = 24 Y0 – E0
E2 = 24(Y – Y0)
E = E0 + E1 + E2
E = E0 + 24 Y0 – E0 + 24(Y – Y0) = 24 Y
if E < = 24 Y0
Y = Y0
Y = E / 24
if E > 24 Y0
Here Y is the new Peak after adding New Energy Optimally
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Competition
– Natural Gas cars
– Hydrogen fuel cell cars
• Do they plug in to the grid? If not they will reduce load
due to EVs.
• Hydrogen generation in BC would cause its own load.
– Will fossil fuel fueled vehicles strike back?
• Significant improvement in mpg.
• Capital cost.
– Increased public transportation.
• This will impact number of vehicles and/or miles
driven.
– Are there other competitors?
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Israeli Initiative
• TEL AVIV (JTA) -- In a land of high gas prices and no oil
resources, Israel is positioning itself to lead the world
into the age of the electric car.
• With $200 million in funding from private investors and
enthusiastic support from the Israeli government, a
young Israeli high-tech multimillionaire, Shai Agassi, is
laying the groundwork for Israel to become the first test
case for the gasoline-free electric car.
• His company is planning to establish a network of
battery-recharging areas across Israel by 2011. RenaultNissan will begin introducing electric cars to the Israeli
market as soon as next year.
• In cooperation with Project Better Place, which is based
in California.
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Summary
• Electric Vehicles may become a Significant part of the
BC Motor Vehicle Fleet by 2028
– The electric fraction will be between 35% and 72% with
probability 0.90. Median=57%.
– The Load due to Electric Vehicles will be between 3.4 TWh and
9.6 TWh with probability 0.90. Median 6.3 TWh.
• Social Benefits may be large.
(Especially if North America wide results are similar)
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More efficient use of energy.
Smaller emissions of CO2 and other pollutants.
Petroleum Displacement.
Quieter cities
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Policy Implications for BC Hydro
• BC hydro needs to plan Supply Strategies to meet
the extra demand due to electric vehicles.
• The capacity demand can be effectively managed
by optimizing the way vehicles are charged by:
– the Smart Metering Infrastructure (SMI) planed for
implementation in 2012, together with
– Rates that give incentives to charge at optimal times.
• Energy supply at BC Hydro is constrained by water
supply.
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