Palisade
Sydney
2007
Modelling Sheep Population and
Wool Production in Australia
Kimbal Curtis
Department of Agriculture and Food
Western Australia
Outline of presentation
Sheep and Wool industry
Model development
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Approach
Sensitivity analysis
Correlation
Two applications
ƒ
ƒ
Forecasting cycle
Adjusting ram choice to maintain the flock
Benefits
Curtis (2007)
Background
Sheep & Wool industry (2006)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
ƒ 92 million sheep
ƒ 420 million kg wool
ƒ A$2.5 billion per year
Long supply chain
ƒ Stages – Growers, Exporters, Processors, Retailers
ƒ Duration – farm to fashion outlet >9 months
Planning is crucial
ƒ Production and price
ƒ Wool quality
Thus production forecasts are crucial!
Curtis (2007)
Scoping study
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Concluded there was an
“ … industry driven need to enhance the capacity for
forecasting and projection of sheep meat and wool
supply in Australia”
1st generation model
“a quarterly demographic model of the sheep flock”
2nd generation model
“… will utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to
both develop estimates and quantify uncertainty in final
forecasts”
Curtis (2007)
Why Monte Carlo methods?
Unknown starting point
Need to estimate closing point
System is not at equilibrium
Curtis (2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Projection is easy …
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Sheep
Population
(period 1)
births
Sheep
Population
(period 0)
age
sold*
Shorn
or
unshorn
x 24 classes
deaths
Project out 5 years
sold* = sales - purchases
Curtis (2007)
Matrix projection process
New Born
New Born
Immature
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Immature
Mature
0.22
0.32
0.95
0.80
0.70
Mature
Start
Year 1
New Born
11.2
13.3
13.3=
+ (8.0*0.22)
+ (36.0*0.32)
13.4 (11.2*0.00)
13.8
14.3
14.8
Immature
8.0
7.8
9.3 (11.2*0.70)
9.4
7.8=
+ (8.0*0.00)
+ (36.0*0.00)
9.7
10.0
Mature
36.0
36.5
36.7 (11.2*0.00)
38.2
39.6
40.9
36.5=
+ (8.0*0.95)
+ (36.0*0.80)
Total
55.2
57.6
Curtis (2007)
Year 2
59.4
Year 3
61.4
Year 4
63.6
Year 5
65.7
Forecasting time line
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Mar 2007
1st forecast
Survey: flock composition, 2007 intensions
Progressive sheep sales/exports (ABS)
Wool test data (season to date)
Jun 2007
2007 growing season underway
Sheep population 2006 (ABS)
Progressive sheep sales/exports (season to date)
Wool test data (end of season)
Sep 2007
2007 growing season conditions
Surveys: MLA lamb survey, Dept Agriculture
Sheep sales/exports (previous season)
Mar 2008
Survey: flock composition, 2007 intensions
Progressive sheep sales/exports (season to date)
Wool test data (season to date)
Jun 2008
2008 growing season underway
Sheep population 2006 (ABS)
Progressive sheep sales/exports (season to date)
Wool test data (end of season)
Curtis (2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Curtis (2007)
gather
inputs
matrix
estimation
assemble
outputs
projections
Model specifications
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock size and composition
ƒ 4 age groups
•
•
•
•
Lambs
Weaners
Hoggets
Adults
Time step of 6 months
Australia – single region
ƒ 3 breeds
• Merino
• Merino first cross
• Merino second cross/meat
breeds
ƒ 2 sexes
• Ewes
• Wethers
Key Inputs
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Lambing rate (by breed)
Ram choice
Death rates
Sales rates (net)
ƒ Initial flock composition
Curtis (2007)
Initial flock composition
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Population at 1st July 2006, millions
Initial flock composition
Merino lambs
Merino weaners
Merino hoggets
Merino adults
Merino first cross lambs
Merino first cross weaners
Merino first cross hoggets
Merino first cross adults
Second cross or meat breed lambs
Second cross or meat breed weaners
Second cross or meat breed hoggets
Second cross or meat breed adults
Initial sheep population
Curtis (2007)
Ewes (no.)
6.88
4.11
6.05
38.37
2.11
1.54
0.66
5.08
0.88
0.45
0.12
0.88
Wethers (no.)
5.5
2.76
3.32
8.65
1.59
1.23
0.19
0.4
0.62
0.35
0.06
0.12
67.13
24.79
91.92
Input form
Inputs for Australia
Wool production scalar
Sheep sales season scalar
Death rate season scalar
Ram choice
Merino ewes x Merino rams
Merino 1st cross ewes x Merino rams
2nd cross & meat ewes x Merino rams
Weaning rates
Merino lambs
Merino 1st cross lambs
2nd cross & meat breed lambs
Curtis (2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Jul-Dec 2006
Jan-Jun 2007
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
69%
6%
6%
69%
5%
5%
80%
86%
94%
80%
86%
94%
Wool production scalar
(% of mean)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis:
Performed By:
Date:
Updating:
One Variable Summary
Mean
Variance
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
Median
Mean Abs. Dev.
Minimum
Maximum
Range
Count
Sum
1st Quartile
3rd Quartile
Curtis (2007)
One Variable Summary
Kimbal Curtis
Tuesday, 3 July 2007
Static
Relative wool cut per sheep (Australia)
WoolProduction annual dataset
1.00000
0.00104
0.03227
0.5275
2.7317
0.99703
0.02668
0.94977
1.07580
0.12604
25
25.00000
0.97452
1.01954
Wool production
scalar
12
8
4
0
94% 97% 100% 103% 106% 109%
Outputs
Outputs for Australia
Year 2: 2007-08
Opening sheep number (millions) - 1 July
91.88
0.0 (0.0%)
Number of sheep & lambs shorn (millions)
Ratio of sheep shorn:opening number
Shorn wool production (mkg greasy)
Wool cut per head (kg greasy)
94.5
103%
423
4.47
-1.1 (-1.2%)
Closing sheep number (millions) - 30 June
91.09
-0.8 (-0.9%)
17.9
1.8
11.9
31.6
4.9
2.3 (14.6%)
-0.1 (-6.9%)
0.2 (1.6%)
2.3 (8.0%)
-0.1 (-1.6%)
Sheep sold for slaughter/live export (millions)
lambs+weaners
hoggets
adults
subtotal
Deaths (millions)
Curtis (2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
-5.1 (-1.2%)
0.0 (0.0%)
Output series
Outputs for Australia
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Year 1: 2006-07
Year 2: 2007-08
Year 3: 2008-09
Opening sheep number (millions) - 1 July
91.92
91.88
0.0 (0.0%)
91.09
-0.8 (-0.9%)
Number of sheep & lambs shorn (millions)
Ratio of sheep shorn:opening number
Shorn wool production (mkg greasy)
Wool cut per head (kg greasy)
95.7
104%
428
4.47
94.5
103%
423
4.47
-1.1 (-1.2%)
-0.8 (-0.8%)
-5.1 (-1.2%)
0.0 (0.0%)
93.8
103%
419
4.47
Closing sheep number (millions) - 30 June
91.88
91.09
-0.8 (-0.9%)
90.16
-0.9 (-1.0%)
15.6
1.9
11.7
29.2
5.0
17.9
1.8
11.9
31.6
4.9
2.3 (14.6%)
-0.1 (-6.9%)
0.2 (1.6%)
2.3 (8.0%)
-0.1 (-1.6%)
18.2
1.7
11.6
31.5
4.9
0.3 (1.5%)
-0.1 (-5.4%)
-0.2 (-2.1%)
-0.1 (-0.3%)
0.0 (-0.4%)
Sheep sold for slaughter/live export (millions)
lambs+weaners
hoggets
adults
subtotal
Deaths (millions)
Curtis (2007)
-4.2 (-1.0%)
0.0 (-0.2%)
Deterministic forecasts
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock Size
Flock size
(C45 to H45)
Merino flock
to H46) size
Merino(C46flock
95
105
85
95
75
85
75
65
65
55
1-Jul2006
30-Jun2007
30-Jun2008
30-Jun2009
30-Jun2010
30-Jun2011
1-Jul2006
Sheep sales
30-Jun2007
30-Jun2008
30-Jun2009
30-Jun2010
30-Jun2011
Wool production
to AG45)
Sheep(AC45
sales
to AS45)
Wool (AO45
production
38
500
34
460
420
30
380
26
340
22
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
300
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Deterministic forecasts,
updated quarterly
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock Size
Flock size
(C45 to H45)
Merino flock
to H46) size
Merino(C46flock
95
105
85
95
75
85
75
65
65
55
1-Jul2006
30-Jun2007
30-Jun2008
30-Jun2009
30-Jun2010
30-Jun2011
1-Jul2006
Sheep sales
30-Jun2007
30-Jun2008
30-Jun2009
30-Jun2010
30-Jun2011
Wool production
to AG45)
Sheep(AC45
sales
to AS45)
Wool (AO45
production
38
500
34
460
420
30
380
26
340
22
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
300
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Deterministic forecasts,
1st and last
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock Size
Flock size
(C45 to H45)
Merino flock
to H46) size
Merino(C46flock
95
105
85
95
75
85
75
65
65
55
1-Jul2006
30-Jun2007
30-Jun2008
30-Jun2009
30-Jun2010
30-Jun2011
1-Jul2006
Sheep sales
30-Jun2007
30-Jun2008
30-Jun2009
30-Jun2010
30-Jun2011
Wool production
to AG45)
Sheep(AC45
sales
to AS45)
Wool (AO45
production
38
500
34
460
420
30
380
26
340
22
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
300
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Introducing variability
Palisade
Sydney
2007
• Identify most important inputs
• Define distributions
• Include correlations
Why?
• Unknown starting point
• Future values have a range on possible values
Curtis (2007)
Sensitivity analysis - TopRank
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Tornado Graph for Flock size - Australia / 30-Jun-2008/E45
16
15
-6.043%
Merino adults / Ewes (no.)/D37
Sheep sales season scalar / Year 2007/S24
14
6.043%
-1.937%
3.235%
Weaning rate - Mo lambs / Year 2007/S29
-1.729%
1.729%
%Mo ewes x Mo rams / Year 2007/S26
-1.674%
1.674%
Merino adults / 2008 %mated/BK54
-1.588%
1.588%
13
12
11
Sheep sales season scalar / Year 2008/T24
-1.186%
Weaning rate - Mo lambs / Year 2008/T29
-1.159%
10
9
Sheep sales season scalar / Year 2006/R24
8
Ewes - Merino adults / 2007 Sales/BJ34
1.854%
1.159%
-.916%
1.325%
-1.027%
7
1.034%
Merino hoggets / Ewes (no.)/D36
-.878%
.878%
Merino lambs / Ewes (no.)/D34
-.799%
.799%
Weaning rate - Mo lambs / Year 2006/R29
-.727%
.727%
%Mo ewes x Mo rams / Year 2006/R26
-.717%
.717%
Merino adults / 2006 %mated/BI54
-.659%
.659%
Merino first cross adults / Ewes (no.)/D41
-.634%
.634%
Death rate season scalar / Year 2007/S25
-.573%
.575%
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-7.99
-5.99
-4.00
-2.00
.00
2.00
Perc% Chg
in output at
end of bars
4.00
Percent% Change in Flock size - Australia / 30-Jun-2008/E45
Curtis (2007)
5.99
7.99
Sensitivity analysis
short and long term drivers
Description
Percent of flock that are Merino adult ewes
Weaning rate, Merino lambs
Weaning rate,
lambs
Weaning
rate,first
firstcross
cross
lambs
Percent of Merino adult ewes sold
Percent of
are
Merino
adult
wethers
Percent
offlock
flockthat
that
are
Merino
adult
wethers
Percent
are
Merino
ewe
lambs
Percent of
offlock
flockthat
that
are
Merino
ewe
lambs
Percent of flock that are Merino wether lambs
Percent of flock that are Merino ewe weaners
Weaning rate, second cross lambs
Percent of Merino adult wethers sold
Percent of flock that are 1X ewe adults
Percent of flock that are 2X ewe adults
Death
Death rate,
rate, adult
adultewes
ewes
Percent
to to
non
Merino
rams
Percent of
ofMerino
Merinoewes
ewesjoined
joined
non
Merino
rams
Percent of first or second cross wether lambs sold
Percent of first or second cross adult ewes sold
Percent of first or second cross ewe lambs sold
Curtis (2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Period 1
Max
Min
5.7%
-5.7%
1.8%
-1.8%
0.8%
-0.8%
0.8%
-0.8%
0.8%
-0.8%
0.7%
-0.7%
0.6%
-0.6%
0.6%
-0.6%
Period 5
Max
Min
6.4%
-6.4%
6.4%
-6.2%
1.1%
-1.1%
4.1%
-4.0%
0.9%
-0.9%
0.9%
1.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
2.0%
3.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
-0.9%
-1.7%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-2.0%
-3.4%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.5%
Distributions and
data requirements
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Curtis (2007)
Average
100%
105%
100%
69%
8%
8%
80%
86%
94%
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Stdev
5.0%
3.3%
3.6%
3.9%
Min
90%
75%
30%
59%
0%
0%
Max
110%
125%
170%
79%
10%
10%
Correlated inputs
Palisade
Sydney
2007
StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
Analysis:
Performed By:
Date:
Updating:
Correlation and Covariance
Kimbal Curtis
Tuesday, 3 July 2007
Static
ABARE sheep data
(Australia)
Correlation Table
Sheep sales rate (%)
Lambing rate (%)
Sheep death rate (%)
Wool cut per sheep shorn (kg)
Curtis (2007)
ABARE sheep data
(Australia)
ABARE sheep data
(Australia)
ABARE sheep data
(Australia)
Sheep sales rate (%)
Lambing rate (%)
Sheep death rate (%)
Wool cut per sheep
shorn (kg)
1.000
-0.293
0.204
-0.268
-0.293
1.000
-0.512
0.322
0.204
-0.512
1.000
-0.021
-0.268
0.322
-0.021
1.000
Wool cut
Sheep
deaths
Lambing
rate
Sheep
sales
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Curtis (2007)
-0.29
-0.29
0.20
-0.27
-0.51
0.32
0.20
-0.51
-0.02
-0.27
0.32
-0.02
Sheep sales
Lambing rate
Sheep deaths
Wool cut
Model now built
Let the fun begin …
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Demonstrate flock model
Curtis (2007)
Output bounds
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Mo flock (C46 to H46)
Flock
size
Flock size
(C45 to H45)
Merino flock size
110
95
105
90
100
85
95
80
90
75
85
70
80
Cell:
75
65
70
60
65
C45
D45
E45
F45
G45
=Mean,+1/-1SD
H45
Cell:
55
C46
D46
E46
F46
G46
=Mean,+1/-1SD
=95%,5%
H46
=95%,5%
Wool prodn
(AO45 to AS45)
Wool
production
Sales (AC45
to AG45)
Sheep
sales
520
38
500
36
480
34
460
32
440
420
30
400
28
380
26
360
340
24
Cell:
22
AC45
320
AD45
AE45
AF45
=Mean,+1/-1SD
Curtis (2007)
AG45
=95%,5%
Cell:
300
AO45
AP45
AQ45
AR45
=Mean,+1/-1SD
AS45
=95%,5%
Example 1: Forecasting
Forecasts released quarterly
Farmers surveyed twice a year
Palisade
Sydney
2007
ƒ 1100 in July, 1400 in February
Industry data sources
ƒ Australian Bureau of Statistics
ƒ Australian Wool Testing Authority
ƒ Meat and Livestock Australia
State committee inputs
Forecasting 2007-08 wool production
Sheep population at 30-June-2008
Curtis (2007)
Model set up
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Start with average conditions
Same for all years
Initialise at July 2006
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Curtis (2007)
Risk parameters for Year 2006
Average
Stdev
Min
100%
5.0%
90%
100%
75%
100%
30%
69%
59%
8%
0%
8%
0%
80%
3.3%
86%
3.6%
94%
3.9%
Max
110%
125%
170%
79%
10%
10%
Projection based on average
conditions
105
Flock size
85
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Merino
flock size
80
95
75
85
70
75
2006
65
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sheep sales
2006
480
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Wool production
36
33
440
30
400
27
24
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
360
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
1st forecast (March 2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Poorer conditions than average in 2006
ƒ Lower wool cut, lambing rates
ƒ Higher sales and deaths
Average conditions for 2007
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Curtis (2007)
Risk parameters for Year 2006
Average
Stdev
Min
97%
2.0%
90%
105%
100%
110%
100%
69%
65%
8%
6%
8%
6%
70%
0.1%
80%
0.1%
94%
0.1%
Max
110%
110%
120%
74%
10%
10%
Average to Mar-2007 forecast
Flock size
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
2006
85
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Merino flock size
2006
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
2006
Curtis (2007)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2006
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock
size
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Merino flock size
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Average to Mar-2007 forecast
Sheep sales
36
36
33
33
30
30
27
27
24
24
2006-07
480
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Wool production
2006-07
480
440
440
400
400
360
360
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Sheep
sales
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Wool production
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2nd forecast (July 2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Risk parameters for Year 2006
Average
Stdev
Min
97%
2.0%
90%
105%
100%
110%
100%
69%
65%
8%
6%
8%
6%
70%
0.1%
80%
0.1%
94%
0.1%
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Risk parameters for Year 2007
Average Stdev
Min
Max
99%
4.0%
90%
110%
95%
80%
110%
100%
60%
140%
69%
59%
79%
8%
0%
10%
8%
0%
10%
82%
2.0%
93%
2.0%
105%
2.0%
Curtis (2007)
Max
110%
110%
120%
74%
10%
10%
Mar-2007 to Jul-2007 forecasts
Flock size
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
2006
85
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Merino flock size
2006
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
2006
Curtis (2007)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2006
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock size
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2010
2011
Merino flock size
2007
2008
2009
Mar-2007 to Jul-2007 forecasts
36
Sheep sales
36
33
33
30
30
27
27
24
24
2006-07
480
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Wool production
2006-07
480
440
440
400
400
360
360
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Sheep sales
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Wool production
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
3rd forecast (September 2007)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Improving conditions across 2007
ƒ Average wool cut per sheep
ƒ Better lambing rates
ƒ Reduced sales (re-building)
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Curtis (2007)
Risk parameters for Year 2007
Average Stdev
Min
Max
100%
2.0%
90%
110%
95%
90%
100%
100%
85%
115%
65%
60%
70%
8%
4%
10%
8%
4%
10%
82%
1.5%
93%
1.5%
105%
1.5%
Jul-2007 to Sep-2007 forecasts
Flock size
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
2006
85
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Merino flock size
2006
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
2006
Curtis (2007)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2006
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock size
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2010
2011
Merino flock size
2007
2008
2009
Jul-2007 to Sep-2007 forecasts
36
Sheep sales
36
33
33
30
30
27
27
24
24
2006-07
480
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Wool production
2006-07
480
440
440
400
400
360
360
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Sheep sales
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Wool production
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
5th forecast (March 2008)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Good finishing conditions for 2007
ƒ Better wool cut
ƒ Better lambing rates in 2008
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Curtis (2007)
Risk parameters for Year 2007
Average Stdev
Min
Max
102%
1.0%
90%
110%
95%
90%
100%
100%
85%
115%
65%
63%
67%
8%
7%
9%
8%
7%
9%
82%
0.5%
93%
0.5%
105%
0.5%
5th forecast (March 2008)
105
Flock size
85
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Merino flock size
80
95
75
85
70
75
2006
36
65
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sheep sales
2006
480
33
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Wool production
440
30
400
27
24
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
360
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
6th forecast (July 2008)
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Good finishing conditions for 2007
ƒ Better wool cut
ƒ Better lambing rates in 2008
Wool {NormTrunc}
Sales {Triang}
Deaths {Triang}
Mo x Mo {Triang}
1X x Mo {Triang}
2X x Mo {Triang}
Mo lambing {Norm}
1X lambing {Norm}
2X lambing {Norm}
Curtis (2007)
Risk parameters for Year 2008
Average
Stdev
Min
103%
3.0%
90%
98%
88%
100%
75%
66%
61%
8%
6%
8%
6%
85%
2.0%
95%
2.0%
105%
2.0%
Max
110%
108%
125%
71%
10%
10%
6th forecast (July 2008)
105
Flock size
85
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Merino flock size
80
95
75
85
70
75
2006
36
65
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sheep sales
2006
480
33
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Wool production
440
30
400
27
24
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
360
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Comparing 1st & last forecasts
Flock size
105
Flock size
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2006
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Flock size
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
First forecast
Last forecast
(made March 2007)
(made July 2008)
30 June 2007
90.0 (87.1-93.2)
91.7 (90.9 - 92.5)
30 June 2008
89.8 (83.4 - 96.4)
92.4 (90.5 - 94.5)
Curtis (2007)
Comparing 1st & last forecasts
Wool production
480
Wool production
480
440
440
400
400
360
360
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2006-07
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Wool production
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
First forecast
Last forecast
(made March 2007)
(made July 2008)
2006-2007
416 (399 - 432)
419 (410 - 427)
2007-2008
415 (382 - 449)
429 (416 - 441)
Curtis (2007)
Example 2: Merino rams
Ram choice impacts on
Palisade
Sydney
2007
ƒ Future flock composition
ƒ Sheep turn off for meat
ƒ Wool production
Tipping point for flock
ƒ At what level is the flock in balance!
Curtis (2007)
Ram choice impact on flock
120
60%
Palisade
Sydney
2007
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
2006
120
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
80%
2006
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
2006
Curtis (2007)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
70%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2009
2010
2011
Solver (72%)
2006
2007
2008
Ram choice impact on Merinos
110
110
60%
90
90
70
70
50
50
2006
110
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
90
90
70
70
50
50
2006
Curtis (2007)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
70%
2006
110
80%
Palisade
Sydney
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2009
2010
2011
Solver (72%)
2006
2007
2008
Ram choice on impact on wool
600
550
600
60%
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
600
550
Palisade
Sydney
2007
70%
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2009-10
2010-11
600
80%
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
2006-07
Curtis (2007)
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Solver (72%)
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
Benefits
Assign confidence limits
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Projections from uncertain inputs
Rapidly assess a wide range of inputs
Sensitivity analysis
Education
Curtis (2007)
Future work
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Implement by State
Distributions for
ƒ Sales, Deaths, weaning rates
ƒ Breeding decisions
Incorporate into forecasting process
ƒ Use in meetings
ƒ Publication of ranges
Curtis (2007)
Acknowledgements
Palisade
Sydney
2007
Scoping study
ƒ Anthony Clark, David James
Model development
ƒ Anthony Clark, Greg Hood
Review and implementation
ƒ Paul Deane, Chris Wilcox
Project management
ƒ George Waldthausen
The model reported here is based on a model developed for
and funded by Australian Wool Innovation.
Curtis (2007)