Investing in Natural Assets A business case for the environment in the City of Cape Town Martin de Wit, De Wit Sustainable Options (Pty) Ltd (Project Leader) Hugo van Zyl, Independent Economic Researchers Doug Crookes, Independent James Blignaut, Beatus CC Terence Jayiya, Jaymat Enviro Solutions CC Valerie Goiset, De Wit Sustainable Options (Pty) Ltd Brian Mahumani, De Wit Sustainable Options (Pty) Ltd Prepared by Natural Value Joint Venture c/o PO Box 546 Brackenfell 7561 Prepared for Arne Purves City of Cape Town Acknowledgements Many people in and outside the City contributed to this project, most notably the project leader Arné Purves, the ever-vigilant project steering committee, many City line managers and staff who have attended our participatory workshops and were willing to be interviewed, as well as a group of natural resource economists who helped us shape a more robust valuation methodology. We specifically thank the following people for their involvement and commitment on this project: Project Steering Committee: Amy Davison, Arné Purves, Barry Coetzee, Candice Haskins, Carol Wright, Catherine Stone, David Gretton, Gregg Oelofse, Jeremy Marillier, Joanne Jackson, Johan Steyl, Norah walker, Patricia Holmes, Quintus Thom Interviewees: Barry Wood, Candice Haskins, Carl Theunissen, Carol Wright, Craig Haskins (†), Greg Oelofse, Jeremy Marillier , Joanne Jackson, Joe Olivier, Johan Steyl, Patricia Holmes, Phumla Mrubata, Sakhile Tsotsobe People who attended workshops to develop the methodology: Albert van der Merwe, Jackie Crafford, Lozelle Reed, Lisa Thompson-Smeddle, Myles Mander, Theo Kleynhans, Willem de Lange, Erika Espach People who attended a workshop to test the methodology: Amy Davison, Arné Purves, Barry Coetzee, Candice Haskins, Charlene Dickson, Cliff Dorse, Dalton Gibbs, Desireè Galant, James Hallinan, Jan Botes, Jim Hallinan, Joanne Jackson, Joe Olivier, Julia Wood, Kevin Samson, Natasha Wilson, Norah Walker, Phil Ngozi, Sakhile Tsotsobe, Sharon Pherfer We gratefully acknowledge funding from DANIDA and thank Leandri van der Elst from Unboxed Publishing Consultancy for the proofreading and layout. This report is dedicated to our colleague and friend Craig Haskins who tragically died during the course of the project. We dearly miss him. ii Executive Summary The City of Cape Town’s natural assets – land, coast, biota, atmosphere and waterbodies – are under pressure. Without a sustainable decoupling between economic and population growth, and the use of resources and the pollution of the environment, pressures on natural assets are likely to continue in a developing city such as Cape Town. The municipality is considering reinvesting more of the proceeds of growth into maintaining the natural assets. There are good reasons for doing this. First, natural assets produce a flow of goods and services that has value for people living in and visiting the City of Cape Town. A second related reason is that the degradation of urban natural assets impedes on the ability of the municipality to deliver services in a cost-effective way. Arguments to preserve the environment have traditionally not focused on the financial logic of investing in natural assets. The rationale for this study is to develop a financially-motivated business case for investing in natural assets in the City. The focus of the overall project is to influence budget allocations by developing focused economic arguments for investing, maintaining and expanding the City’s natural assets. Chapter 1 provides a literature overview on what ecosystem goods and services are, presents international best practices used to value the natural environment and reports on valuation studies that were already done within the City. Not all values are included in an economic analysis. The focus of this study is on anthropocentric values and, therefore, does not include any values that are independent of humans as brought forward by theocentric and ecocentric approaches to valuation. Human values are also not homogeneous. There are different types of users of environmental services, often with conflicting values. Despite these limitations, there is a need to value the environment in economic terms. If such values are not known it can easily lead to a misallocation of resources and an abuse of environmental services. Economists working on environmental issues use the now widely-accepted Total Economic Value (TEV) framework to value market and non-market benefits of the environment. Such benefits include the provision of food, water, shelter, materials and medicines for consumption; non-consumptive tourism and recreational values; a sink for pollution and waste; and a habitat to live. The Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) approach, as used by the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment, categorise environmental functions as (intermediate) supporting services, as well as regulating, provisioning and cultural services. The EGS approach provides a useful framework to categorise goods and services from the environment which, in turn, can be translated into economic values by using the TEV approach. In terms of the TEV framework, provisioning services largely fall within the direct use category, regulating services are mainly indirect use values, and cultural services comprise both a direct use component for values such as recreation and an existence value component for the remainder. iii Ecosystem services are often crucially important for all constituents of human wellbeing. Ecosystems often directly contribute to the real economy (such as Gross Domestic Product and employment). Damage to ecosystems erodes natural capital and can also have profound impacts on the livelihoods of those dependent on natural capital even if this is not always reflected in commonly used economic statistics. The beneficiaries of ecosystem goods and services can be categorised according to three main groups, namely private individuals, commercial enterprises and public bodies. Each of these groups has benefits on a local, national/regional or global level. Before conducting a valuation study it is crucial to understand who the beneficiaries are and if they are included or excluded in the valuation study. Valuation techniques are powerful tools for assessing the monetary values of environmental goods and services. Environmental valuation has the ability to express in monetary terms goods and services that would otherwise be regarded as “free”. As such, valuation is an appropriate approach to developing a business case for the environment. There are two important considerations when selecting a valuation technique. The first consideration relates to the availability of data and the selection of an appropriate framework. The second consideration relates to, given the data, which is the most appropriate technique in a given context. In choosing a valuation technique, preference should be given in the first instance to where market prices are available. Shadow prices, or direct or indirect proxies for market prices can also be used. Where no proxies are available at all, stated preference techniques are useful. A number of local case studies are also reviewed. These discuss land uses applicable to the City of Cape Town, including terrestrial, riverine and marine. These valuation studies indicate that wetlands, parks, agricultural landscapes and beaches yield relatively higher environmental values. The high relative values for wetlands and parks are related to the house price premium that is derived from living in close proximity to these areas. Despite providing valuable baseline data, existing valuation studies in the City are still partial and inconclusive on a city-wide level. Chapter 2 reports on interviews with selected senior staff and decision-makers within the municipality. The purpose of these interviews was to compile an inventory of the ecosystem goods and services and to identify the people who are benefiting from these goods and services. The City’s natural and semi-natural environment is a significant service provider. The first step towards a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem goods and services involves the translation of ecological or natural complexity (structures and processes) into a limited number of ecosystem or environmental functions. These functions, in turn, provide the goods and services that are valued by humans. iv The City of Cape Town has a number of line function departments with branches that are tasked with managing the City’s natural/semi-natural environments or areas. The majority of the officials interviewed were drawn from these line function departments or branches. A total of 13 interviewees were asked to describe the natural or semi-natural environment (or asset/amenities, open-space type areas) under their jurisdiction. They were also asked to provide a list of goods and services which might be associated with the City’s natural/seminatural environments or at least the areas which are managed by the line function departments. The interviewees asserted that ecosystem goods and services are essential to all communities living in the City of Cape Town but may, in specific cases, be particularly important in contributing towards meeting the basic needs (i.e. water, firewood, etc.) of poorer communities that do not have access to adequate infrastructure and services. It is further emphasised that goods and services flowing from the environment are benefiting most people living in and visiting the City, dispelling the notion that the environment is limited to maintaining reserves, plants and animals only. A number of key natural/semi-natural environment beneficiaries were identified during the interviews and include: tourists (international, national, local), recreation groups (beach bathers, sailors, surfers, rowers, people who picnic & braai, walkers, cyclists, hikers, sports groups), harvest groups (fishers, wild plant harvesters, urban agriculturalists, fuelwood gatherers), informational and cultural groups (education, scientific research, religious experience, book writers), industry groups (film, advertising and events industry, shipping, tourism, manufacturing, crafts) and residential groups. In many instances, the City’s environmental services are often public goods, which means that they may be enjoyed by any number of people at any given time without affecting other people’s enjoyment. For example, an aesthetic view in Blaauwberg or any part of the City is a public good. No matter how many people enjoy the view, others can also enjoy it. The problem with public goods is that, although people value them, no one person has an individual incentive to pay for or maintain the good. Interviewees suggested that it would be helpful if resource economics made it possible to convert the somewhat elusive value of natural/semi-natural environments and their associated goods and services into something understandable (i.e. a monetary value) to policy-makers and the general population. Chapter 3 provides a methodology to value ecosystem goods and services within the context of a municipality. The methodology prioritises those goods and services that have the highest impact on beneficiaries, are clearly linked to the City’s development objectives, are within the City’s mandate and ability to influence, and have high socio-ecological risks when not managed well. v In order develop the methodology, it is important to distinguish between two related concepts, namely natural assets and ecosystem goods and services (EGS). Natural assets are the stocks of environmental resources owned by the City (the City’s natural capital). Ecosystem goods and services (EGS) are the flows of benefits derived from these assets (the interest or services generated by the natural capital). A comprehensive list of EGS was defined based on inputs from city officials as identified in the literature. Intermediate supporting services, such as primary production systems and ecological cycles, support or contribute to the generation of regulating, provisioning and cultural services. The final list includes the following goods and services: Table a: List of ecosystem goods and services Ecosystem goods and services Water regulation (flows, etc.) Natural hazard regualtion (floods, etc.) Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation Erosion regulation Regulating Pollination Disease regulation Pest regulation Climate regulation – local (air quality) Climate regulation – global Space for biota to live and reproduce (refugia) Fresh water provision Supporting services Photosynthesis Soil formation Primary production Nutrient cycling Water cycling Fuelwood provision Building materials provision (wood, sand, etc.) Wild flowers for harvesting Provisioning Provision of plant and animal material for medicines and biochemicals Provision of materials for crafts, fashion (e.g. shells) Fish and marine resources Genetic resources with potential pharmaceutical and other biochemical uses Small-scale urban farming Recreation and tourism Provision of inspirational beauty Aesthetic values and sense of place Cultural (information) Educational uses (e.g. school excursions, scientific research) Use in cultural and artistic practices and ceremonies Use in religion practices and ceremonies Use in productions (film and events), advertising and publications vi It is neither practical nor desirable to value all goods and services generated by natural assets in the City, necessitating a logical and replicable methodology for prioritising natural assets for valuation. A methodology was developed according to the following six steps: • Assess the relative importance of different natural assets for the generation of EGS • Estimate the importance of EGS to users/beneficiaries • Establish the links between EGS and development objectives • Assess the ability of the City to influence the value of EGS through management • Assess the ability of ecosystems to yield a sustainable flow of EGS and prioritise according to risks • Apply valuation techniques to selected case studies This methodology was tested using a valuation study done for the Zandvlei area as part of a wider City-funded study on the value of open-space areas. This case study offers the opportunity to consider a number of benefit streams from a well-defined natural asset, using a variety of valuation techniques. The Zandvlei case study shows that the vlei is a source of significant benefits for a wide variety of users. The prioritisation of EGS in the City was done during a participatory and facilitated setting with invited City line function managers and senior staff representing all functions related to ecosystem goods and services in the City. A participatory rapid appraisal approach was followed. Participants were asked to identify and shortly motivate what, in their view, the most important linkages are between all identified EGS in the City and beneficiaries, the achievement of development objectives, the City’s environmental mandate and ability to influence and ecological and socio-economic risks. Based on a score of the most important linkages, the following ecosystem goods and services were identified for more intensive valuation: • natural hazard regulation (buffering function performed for flooding, fires and coastal surge/sea level rise), • provision of natural characteristics that are conducive to tourism and recreation, • the improvement of water quality and the assimilation of waste, • provision of space for globally important biota, and • the aesthetics and sense of place provided by the natural environment. Educational benefits of the natural environment were included in the discussion on the value of biota. The importance of the natural environment to enhanced health and wellbeing, the Cape Town brand in general, the film and advertising sector, and the enhancement of property values are included in the discussion on values associated with aesthetics and sense of place. vii Chapter 4 presents the results of valuing these selected services for the City of Cape Town. It is estimated that the ecosystem services of natural hazard regulation, tourism and recreation, and support to the film industry provide a benefit of between R1.5–R4 billion per annum to people living in and visiting the City. When conservatively adjusted for other ecosystem services, a benefit of between R2–R6 billion per annum is provided by the City’s natural assets. Not all ecosystem goods and services could be measured in the study and this is, therefore, a conservative estimate. These values are an estimation of nature’s share in the production and consumption of ecosystem goods and services. The tourism value of natural and other areas is commonly measured using the travel cost technique. This technique is based on the assumption that tourists’ willingness to spend on travel to a given place reflects the value that they attached to it. This can then be supplemented by considering the entry fees paid by tourists at natural areas. The following steps were thus followed: 1. Estimate the travel costs associated with all tourist trips that include the City of Cape Town in their itinerary (i.e. the cost of transport). 2. Isolate the relative prominence or weight of the City of Cape Town in the travel decision of tourists including the City in their travel itineraries. 3. Isolate the relative prominence or weight of the City of Cape Town’s natural assets in the travel decision of tourists coming to the City. 4. Add entry fees paid by tourists to access natural areas to their travel costs. Using this approach, total tourism values associated with natural assets fall in the range of R965 million to R2.95 billion per annum. Some of the most prominent values associated with natural environments in the City of Cape Town are the many and varied recreational opportunities offered by these environments. The City’s parks, nature reserves, beaches and other open spaces allow residents to engage in a number of activities and play a crucial role in promoting wellbeing. A conservative average value of local green open spaces is between R270 and R326 million per annum. This information was supplemented by gate fee data in order to estimate total travel and entry costs at all TMNP sites and Kirstenbosch of between R68 and R83 million per annum. The recreational value of the beaches included in the study is estimated at between R70 and R85 million per annum. This is probably a particularly conservative estimate when one considers that a number of the key beaches have been enhanced to the point of achieving Blue Flag status. The combined recreational values for local green open spaces (including City nature reserves), TMNP, Kirstenbosch and local beaches in the City of Cape Town is estimated to be between R407 and R494 million per annum. These values were largely driven by the quality of management and the public’s perception of the relationship between these areas and their role in social issues such as crime. Particularly in lower income areas, the availability of facilities and areas for the recreational use of natural assets and local green open spaces are still severely limited viii resulting in artificially low current values. However, with additional facilities and management, values in these areas and others stand to increase significantly. It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the City of Cape Town from a biodiversity value perspective. The Cape Floral Region (CFR) with the City of Cape Town at its heart has almost 9 000 different plant species. Approximately 70% of these species are endemic (i.e. confined) to the region. While foreign donor funding of conservation does not provide a reliable estimate of the value of biodiversity, it provides an indication of the importance of the biodiversity of the CFR at a global scale. In 2004, the C.A.P.E. programme received two Global Environment Facility grants totalling US$14 million in addition to a Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund five-year grant of US$6 million to the (CFR) from 2002 to 2006. This funding equates approximately R225 million in current values – a highly significant recognition of the international importance of the biodiversity contained in the Cape Floristic Region. The City of Cape Town’s various natural assets also provide for more fulfilling and varied educational experiences among learners. During the year July 2008 to June 2009, a total of 23 781 learners (equivalent to 59 708 days of education) from roughly 500 schools attended environmental education programmes on City reserves. Natural hazards including fires, flooding and storm surges have significant negative impacts on the safety and wellbeing of Capetonians, their property and other assets. Ecosystems, however, naturally act as barriers, or buffers, against natural hazards, thus mitigating their negative impacts. The summer months in the City of Cape Town are prevailingly dry, hot and windy and as a result the area is highly vulnerable to wildfires. These fires are associated with injury, loss of life, community dislocation, damage to property and ecological damage. In addition, disaster management expenditure on controlling fires and cleaning-up after them is significant. The presence of Invasive Alien Plants (IAPs) in the City of Cape Town remains a serious cause for concern with regard to fire mitigation. On the whole, these plants remain relatively widespread and are a major aggravating factor with respect to wildfire frequency, extent and intensity. They also pose a key threat to local biodiversity and are associated with increased security and water supply risks. Among natural threats, floods are one of the most destructive often targeting the most vulnerable. The impacts of flooding events, especially in densely developed and populated urban areas, are thus of growing concern. Flooding affects thousands of Capetonians each year, and puts their property and belongings, businesses, safety, health and sometimes even their lives at risk. In the July 2008 floods, approximately 30 000 people were affected and 7 500 structures damaged. In order to estimate likely total property damage costs that would be associated with flooding, data from the City of Cape Town GIS database was used to estimate the total number of properties within the 1 in 100 year flood line per property type (e.g. residential, business, schools, etc.). Potential damages to each structure were then estimated and a total potential damage cost estimate of R545 million spread over 100 years was generated. This translates to around R5.45 million per annum. To this property damage figure one needs to add costs broadly associated with disruptions (i.e. ix transport delays, lost time at work, etc.), health costs and any other social costs. Flooding risks, however, can be managed to acceptable levels through appropriate stormwater infrastructure, disaster management as well as land use planning and environmental management. Limiting the development of natural areas is known to play a key role in mitigating floods as it is one of the only ways to limit the imperviousness (i.e. not able to absorb and slow down water flows) of areas. High levels of impervious ground cover have predictable global impacts on the nature of flooding events. The implication of these altered relationships in the water balance equation is that runoff in a built-up area becomes ‘peaked’ and ‘flashy’ in nature. All indications are that it is more cost effective, in the longterm, to favour development in areas where flood risk and flood severity are minimal, as opposed to implementing costly flood mitigation works or bearing damage costs resulting from failure of infrastructure. One of the anticipated consequences of climate change is a rise in observed sea level – which is a function of mean sea level, tidal influences and meteorological forcing of sea level. Although climate-induced changes to mean sea level are not the same in all regions of the world, available evidence suggests that the mean sea level around the City of Cape Town increases according to the mean global rate, which was approximately 2 cm per decade. Current understanding is that global warming, in conjunction with increased intensity and abbreviated return times of storms, will give rise to periods (of about 1–4 hours) during which the “observed” sea level could be 1 to 15 metres higher than the current mean sea level leading to floods and significant socioeconomic damages. In earlier studies, the increased risks of storm surges and their associated costs in the City of Cape Town have been assessed in terms of loss of real estate value, damage to infrastructure and foregone tourism revenue. It was estimated that the total potential value at risk was between R4.4 billion and R10.5 billion spread over 25 years. This translates into between R176 million and R420 million per year. These figures are highly significant but also open to misinterpretation. These figures should rather be regarded as representing the cumulative total value at risk, over a period of 25 years, at all points of the coast. It also assumes the total destruction of the real estate and infrastructure in question as opposed to partial damages. Total destruction of all structures seems highly unlikely given experiences with flooding in the City of Cape Town which results in similar outcomes associated with inundation. Following a more realistic approach actual damages would amount to between R26.4 million and R63 million per annum. High levels of uncertainty exist regarding the most appropriate solutions to risk minimisation. However, natural solutions and the use of existing natural assets offer sustainability advantages and are more likely to allow for the realisation of multiple benefits with “least regrets” when compared to engineering solutions. The damage and management costs avoided as a result of the optimisation of natural asset functions is estimated to range from R2.6 million to R50.4 million per annum. When combining the value of natural assets in natural hazard regulation for all three natural hazards (i.e. fire, floods and storm surges), a total value of between R4.6 million and R60.4 million is reasonable. Relatively high levels of uncertainty exist with regard to these predicted values and more research is needed on the links between ecosystems and x natural hazard regulation. However, enough is known about the links between the conservation and proper management of natural assets to make it clear that investment in these assets needs to be an integral part of disaster management. Natural assets have significant value as purifiers and assimilators of waste, essentially acting as natural versions of built infrastructure such as ‘sewage outfalls’ and ‘water treatment plants’. As with built infrastructure, however, the natural environment can only cope with a certain maximum amount of waste or pollution before it becomes inefficient. At best, absorptive capacity will be impaired in these situations, but outright ecological infrastructure failure also becomes a distinct possibility. In the City of Cape Town, urban lakes have developed substantially in line with urbanisation and population growth trends, resulting in ever-increasing loads of urban run-off being conveyed to them. They now act as very effective waste and sediment traps and, over the years, have silted up and become increasingly eutrophic, and are characterised by noxious, sometimes toxic algal blooms and a stunted biota. Zeekoevlei, for example, has been abused to the point where it can be argued that it is currently more of a liability than an asset. Current estimates indicate that the necessary dredging of the vlei would cost R60 million–R70 million. Aside from the costs associated with poor stormwater management at such vleis, knock-on effects can extend to the sea although these are not as widely recognised. The failure of Fish Hoek beach to attain Blue Flag status is a case in point. The swimming area is vulnerable to bathing water contamination caused by outflows of faecal and other pollution material. It has forced the City to abandon all plans to pursue Blue Flag accreditation for Fish Hoek beach. This is an unfortunate and frustrating reality from the viewpoint of the Fish Hoek community as a whole and its tourism sector in particular. Certain elements of natural landscapes, such as the presence of water, topographic variation and vegetation, have repeatedly been associated with a high landscape preference and good scenic (aesthetic) value while built features and degraded landscapes have consistently been associated with low preference. Researchers also believe that there is a direct relationship between the ecological diversity and functioning of the landscape and perceived scenic beauty. There can be little doubt that the City of Cape Town possesses spectacular aesthetic features linked to its natural assets and that these features contribute to the unique sense of place in the City, as well as the image of the City, thereby creating multiple significant value streams. Key value streams that flow from aesthetic and sense of place values associated with the City of Cape Town’s natural assets are enhanced health and wellbeing, contributions to the City of Cape Town brand, and an enhanced business environment. There are also benefits flowing to specific sectors, namely film and advertising and property value enhancement. The occurrence of natural assets in cities and suburbs can increase their aesthetic appeal and provide a diversity of experiences in people’s everyday lives. The City of Cape Town’s efforts towards creating a winning brand is also strongly linked to its environmental assets and the management of the environment have borne initial fruit in the form of many awards bestowed on the City. Gains have been made, but the City’s natural environment continues to come under increasing pressure as xi development accelerates and increasingly difficult trade-offs are required. The City of Cape Town has also seen extraordinary growth in its film and advertising industry. Total expenditure in the Western Cape amounted to a significant R2.6 billion from roughly 2 730 productions of varying sizes. The City of Cape Town’s expenditure was estimated at R2 billion or 77% of Western Cape expenditure. Discussions with key role players in the local industry provided confirmation that the City of Cape Town’s many and varied natural assets provide extensive opportunities to the film and advertising industry. It seems reasonable to conclude that 5% to 15% of total production expenditure, or between R133 million and R398 million per annum, can be linked to the City of Cape Town’s natural assets. The City of Cape Town boasts some of the most sought after property in the world. This largely relates directly to the amenity values associated with the City’s natural assets which are reflected in property prices. These values mainly include aesthetic or sense of place values primarily in the form of views and recreational values (e.g. easy access to worldclass beaches and green open spaces). Local case studies indicate the significant property value premiums created at Zandvlei, the Lower Silvermine River and the values created by the rehabilitation of the Westlake River in Kirstenhof. In addition, the Table Mountain National Park has a profound influence on the overall property market. Chapter 5 reports on actual and budgeted expenditure on the natural environment in the City based on the City’s own financial database. Operational expenditure on the environment is estimated at R371 million, or 2.5% of all OPEX in the municipality, and capital expenditure at R110 million, or 2.1% of all CAPEX, in 2009. These figures include the category of environmental protection, as well as estimated environmental expenditure in the line functions Planning and Development, Communication and Social Services, Sport and Recreation, Solid Waste Management, Waste Water Management, Road Transport, Water Utilities, Electricity, and Tourism Development. On capital expenditure, road transport (roads and stormwater) and electricity distribution is expected to have an increasing share of the total budget over the next three years. Capital expenditure related to environmental protection (health services as well as environmental resource management) is almost negligible when compared to total expenditure. The Environmental Resource Management (ERM) department utilised the bulk of the capital allocation for environmental protection for activities related to the protection of biodiversity and landscapes. The share of City health (pollution control), however, has declined. On operational expenditure, electricity distribution has the highest allocated share of the total budget allocation. This is followed by water distribution, solid waste and sewage. The budget forecast from 2009/10 to 2011/12 shows that electricity distribution costs are expected to command an increasing share of the budget. Operational expenditure on pollution control and biodiversity and landscape protection both show increasing trends, but the overall budget is low compared to many other line functions. Some modest increases are expected for the ERM operational budget in the 2008/9–2011/12 budget years. In the sport and recreation function, the parks budget is almost negligible. Parks expenditure is expected to decline as overall share of the budget allocated to community and social services. An analysis of changes in both capital and xii operational environmental expenditure as compared to overall changes in budget indicates that spurts of environmental expenditure has not had a significant impact overall on the City’s budget. This would suggest that, on the whole, environmental feedbacks have not worked through the budgetary system yet. The study recommends the development of a more robust definition of environmental expenditure within the City’s budgetary process. A financial-economic model is developed in Chapter 6. This model attempts to provide insights into the levels of environmental expenditure in relation to the benefits received from the natural environment. This is done for all ecosystem goods and services in the City and for the respective line functions that have some level of expenditure on the environment. As a first indicator, the net present value of natural assets combined is estimated at between R43 billion and R82 billion. In economic theory, when it is not possible to determine the market value of any particular capital stock, the value of that stock is provided by the net present value of the sum of the value of the flows derived from that stock. Like any other capital, natural capital has a stock value that produces flows, namely ecosystem services. The net present value method is considered to be a lower bound estimate of the capital value of an asset since i) it is not always possible to include all flows, and ii) the synergy among the flows often implies that the capital stock value is more than just the mere aggregation of the present value of a set of services. A second indicator is the ratio of environmental expenditure to the value generated by ecosystem goods and services compared to the leverage achieved by the municipality in the broader City economy. In a conventional sense any form of a capital investment project has a large upfront capital component with ongoing operating and maintenance cost. By comparing the return to the investment over time with the upfront investment, it is possible to determine a return on investment. In the case of managing natural capital, we do not have a once-off capital investment, but an ongoing process of restoration, conservation, expansion, management and maintenance of the natural asset base. It is, therefore, not possible to calculate a conventional return on investment figure, but it is indeed possible to derive a relationship in similar fashion to that of a return on investment to indicate the asset value that the related expenditure is generating. For every R1 spent by the municipality in 2008/9 approximately R7.30 of value added was generated in the City economy. For every R1 of expenditure by the municipality on the environment almost R8.30 of ecosystems goods and services were generated. This is a conservative estimate and the ratio can be as high as R13.50 for every R1 when a higher value scenario of R6 billion per annum is used. This means that the leverage of municipal expenditure on the environmental sector is considerably higher, i.e. between 1.2 and 2 times, than that of municipal expenditure on the City economy. A third indicator is the unit reference value. This is a common metric used to compare the return of different water augmentation schemes. The URV gives the cost to produce R1’s worth of benefits. A URV>1 implies the cost exceeds the benefits, and vice versa. The cost to produce R1 of benefit for the natural capital stock is only 16c, compared to between R2 xiii and R5 in the water sector. Overall, these financial indicators provide evidence for ecosystem goods and services as a high-performing growth supporting sector. Chapter 7 reports on the question how to develop an effective argument to increase investment in natural assets in the context of municipalities. It cannot be assumed that a more rigorous valuation of ecosystem goods and services and model results justifying increased investment will automatically lead to improved decisions. There are at least three main reasons for this. First, the diffusion of scientific knowledge into decision-making is surprisingly non-linear. Second, policy- and decision-making are processes which include several steps and the utilisation of increased knowledge would have to go through several phases before making an impact. Third, analysts and decision-makers often have divergent objectives, values and cultures. This study does not attempt to feed directly into decisionmaking, but may be used as an instrument of persuasion (i.e. mobilisation of support) to invest in natural assets. The focus of this study is thus deliberately on the argument itself, as well as the transmission and cognition of the argument. It is recognised that good data and evidence will have little impact or influence over decision-makers unless packaged carefully and communicated effectively. Making a case for environmental investment implies that data should be packaged and presented in such a way that it is targeted, clear, relevant and credible. It is important to be clear on the reasons for environmental investments, and have a target audience who is willing and able to affect change. The main lines of reasoning, the key messages, the steps in the argument, and the supporting data and evidence also need to be very clear. Only relevant information needs to be presented, focused on the needs of a specific audience. Furthermore, the evidence must be credible, based on data from the area or sector the audience represents. The messenger also needs to be credible and could include a champion other than the researchers themselves. One can have a well-packaged argument, but this will have little impact if not heard, understood and acted upon. In addition to having an effective and well-packaged argument and a well-designed communication strategy, it would help to better understand the context wherein the receptor operates. It will also be insightful to understand whether this context has some level of emerging simplicity, and maybe even some level of predictability, that may help to focus both the argument and communication. Focusing on the receptor, complexity emerges within systems, such as a municipality which consists of several different line functions, physical offices, budgets, individuals and cultures to name a few, all of which interact and may lead to complex outcomes. The key driver of these outcomes is human behaviour. Even within budgeting processes complexity emerges. One can expect a large number of small, incremental changes in budgets from year to year, followed by sudden rapid changes. It is argued that underlying to this behaviour is an attention-driven decision-making model. Budget choices are not made based on perfectly rational, weighted indices, but rather driven by certain heuristic rules influenced by the positions of party leaders, by interest groups or by a focus on single-focus issues. In addition, decision-making processes are not nearly as linear as one might expect. xiv This is also the case for the budgeting process. Although more predictable outcomes can be expected in administrative processes than within political processes, complex outcomes still emerge from such processes as well. The receptor can therefore not be viewed as a homogeneous, economically rational entity that will soak up any scientific research outputs that are pushed in its direction. Being aware of emerging complexity and the realities of the decision-making process adds to the importance of having an effective transmission mechanism. It is well recognised that analysts and decision-makers generally have difficulty communicating effectively with each other. Where analysts are intrinsically focused on searching some measure of the truth through rational science, decision-makers are looking for policies that satisfy an electorate or accommodate certain pressure groups. Despite this real divergence, research on the barriers to the utilisation of research shows that personal relationships and trust between researchers and policy-makers continue to be important facilitators of the use of research evidence in policy-making. In the case of the City of Cape Town, socioeconomic inequalities and population growth specifically are both very pertinent variables and can be expected to have a significant effect on the adoption of environmental policies and, thus, environmental investments. It is interesting to note that people living in the City of Cape Town are already better resource conservers than elsewhere in the country which may provide indications on preference for environmental policies. It is, however, evident that environmental signals have not yet translated into rapid budgetary changes in the City. With no convincing evidence of budget adjustments to invest in natural assets, the focus changes to a discussion on environmental signals in the system. Based on an analysis of search terms in all media releases, speeches and documents housed on the City of Cape Town’s website from 2001 onwards, environmental signals are strongest on the natural assets ‘water’, ‘river’, ‘mountain’, ‘garden’ and ‘beach’ and weakest for terms such as ‘open space’, ‘fynbos’ and ‘wetlands’. Ecosystems goods and services related to the terms ‘tourism’, ‘fire’, ‘waste’, ‘stormwater’, ‘recreation’, and ‘conservation’ were mentioned most. A measurement of the demand for issues related to the environment was done by using trends derived from search volumes on the internet. Based on an analysis using Google Trends, the environmental signal by internet users within the Western Cape is predominantly focused on natural assets such as ‘water’, ‘beach’, ‘fish’, ‘river’ and ‘mountain’ and on ecosystems services such as ‘tourism’. Higher signals would better reflect the public’s attention, and support a broader acceptance of arguments. It can be concluded that natural assets and ecosystem services related to the terms ‘water’, ‘beach’, ‘river’, ‘mountain’ and ‘tourism’ provide the strongest combined environmental signals. There is also some evidence that lower income groups indicate a strong preference for environmental services such as a clean and natural environment as well as recreation, but more immediate issues such as jobs, housing, education and income xv dominate perceptions of what a “good life” entails. There are strong enough environmental signals both from within the municipality and from user groups in the City to conclude that attention to environmental issues is prevalent. When focusing on the budget process, the neat construction of a strategy–planning–budget process does not always hold. Strategy, for example, is continually evolving. There are also several unknowns that influence the budgeting process itself. Issues such as the curtailment of revenue sources and inflationary pressures have implications for City budgets as well. On the expenditure side, massive ad hoc expenditures have been included such as the 2010 World Cup and the Bus Rapid Transfer System. The budgetary process for the City of Cape Town follows an orderly process, but there are sufficient opportunities for politicians to include certain items on the budget or influence departmental allocations. Given the complex and changing receiving environment and an inherent divergence between analysts and decision-makers, a well thought through communication strategy becomes increasingly important. Communication theory, in essence, starts with the maxim: Who Says What In Which Channel To Whom With What Effect? A communication strategy is essential in achieving the core goal of the project, namely to motivate for investment in natural assets. A template for effective communication was presented to assist in the development of a communication strategy for the argument presented in this study. xvi Table of contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... ii Executive Summary...................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ............................................................................................................ xxiii List of Figures ............................................................................................................ xxv List of Boxes ............................................................................................................. xxvi Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Economic valuation of natural assets and ecosystem goods and services: A review of the literature 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2 What is value? ....................................................................................................... 4 1.2.1 Classifications of value ............................................................................. 4 1.2.2 Whose values count? ............................................................................... 5 1.2.3 Why do we need to value the environment?............................................. 6 1.2.4 The TEV approach ................................................................................... 7 1.3 The environment-economy interface ..................................................................... 8 1.3.1 Why is the environment important? ......................................................... 8 1.3.2 Integrated valuation framework ................................................................ 9 1.3.3 Categories of Environmental Goods and Services ................................. 10 1.3.4 Links between EGS and human wellbeing ............................................. 14 1.3.5 The environment and economic welfare ................................................. 15 1.3.6 Beneficiaries ........................................................................................... 16 1.3.7 Integrating EGS and TEV approaches ................................................... 17 1.4 Valuation techniques ........................................................................................... 19 1.4.1 Overview of valuation techniques ........................................................... 19 1.4.1.1 Change in productivity ............................................................. 19 1.4.1.2 Human capital and Cost of Illness ........................................... 20 1.4.1.3 Preventative costs ................................................................... 21 1.4.1.4 Hedonic pricing ........................................................................ 21 1.4.1.5 Travel cost .............................................................................. 22 1.4.1.6 Replacement cost .................................................................... 23 1.4.1.7 Contingent valuation ................................................................ 24 1.4.1.8 Choice modeling ...................................................................... 24 1.4.1.9 Benefit transfer ....................................................................... 26 1.4.2 Practical considerations when choosing a valuation technique .............. 26 1.5 Case studies ........................................................................................................ 30 1.5.1 Recreational and agricultural zones ....................................................... 30 1.5.2 Geological features ................................................................................ 33 1.5.3 Rivers and wetlands ............................................................................... 33 1.5.4 Coastline ................................................................................................ 34 xvii 1.5.5 Summary ................................................................................................ 35 1.6 Valuation and other mechanisms ........................................................................ 35 1.6.1 Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) ................................................ 36 1.6.2 Environmental Fiscal Reform ................................................................. 36 1.6.3 Budgetary processes .............................................................................. 37 1.6.4 Alternative measures of sustainability ................................................... 37 1.6.5 System of national accounts................................................................... 37 1.6.6 Green funds and other measures ........................................................... 38 1.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 38 Chapter 2: Ecosystem goods and services: Reporting on consultations 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 40 2.2 Methods ............................................................................................................... 41 2.3 Natural resource flows ......................................................................................... 43 2.3.1 Natural or semi-natural areas managed by the interviewees.................. 43 2.3.2 Natural/semi-natural environment functions ........................................... 44 2.3.3 Natural/semi-natural environmental goods and service .......................... 46 2.3.4 Beneficiaries .......................................................................................... 47 2.3.5 Priorities for further study ....................................................................... 49 2.3.6 Threats to the natural capital base ......................................................... 50 2.3.7 Current uncertainties .............................................................................. 50 2.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 51 Appendix 2.1: List of people interviewed ..................................................................... 52 Appendix 2.2: Questionnaire ....................................................................................... 53 Appendix 2.3: Goods and Services from the interviewees .......................................... 55 Appendix 2.4: List of users as suggested by interviewees .......................................... 56 Chapter 3: Methodology to prioritise and value the natural and environmental resources of the City of Cape Town 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 57 3.2 Approach to methodology development .............................................................. 58 3.2.1 Definition of terms .................................................................................. 58 3.2.2 Categorising and listing ecosystem goods and services ........................ 58 3.2.3 Beneficiaries or users ............................................................................. 60 3.3 Key considerations in methodology development ............................................... 61 3.4 The six-step valuation methodology ................................................................... 65 3.4.1 Assess the relative importance of different natural assets for the generation of EGS .................................................................................. 66 3.4.2 Estimate the importance of EGS to users or beneficiaries ..................... 66 3.4.3 Establish links between EGS and development objectives .................... 68 3.4.4 Assess the City’s ability to influence the value of EGS through management .......................................................................................... 69 3.4.5 Assess the ability of ecosystems to yield a sustainable flow of EGS and prioritise them according to risks ..................................................... 70 xviii 3.4.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 Apply valuation techniques to selected case studies .............................. 70 3.4.6.1 Techniques commonly used for valuation................................ 71 3.4.6.2 Practical considerations when choosing a valuation technique ................................................................................. 72 Case study: Zandvlei ........................................................................................... 74 3.5.1 Assess the relative importance of different natural assets for the generation of EGS .................................................................................. 75 3.5.2 Estimate the importance of EGS to users/beneficiaries ........................ 75 3.5.3 Establish links between EGS and development objectives .................... 76 3.5.4 Assess the City’s ability to influence the value of EGS through management .......................................................................................... 77 3.5.5 Assess the ability of ecosystems to yield a sustainable flow of EGS ..... 77 3.5.6 Applying valuation techniques ............................................................... 77 3.5.6.1 Choosing valuation techniques ................................................ 77 3.5.6.2 Replacement cost technique ................................................... 78 3.5.6.3 Hedonic pricing/property value technique ................................ 79 3.5.6.4 Travel cost technique............................................................... 79 3.5.6.5 Contingent valuation techniques .............................................. 79 3.5.6.6 Discussion ............................................................................... 79 Prioritising EGS in Cape Town using the methodology ....................................... 80 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 83 Chapter 4: Economic valuation 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 84 4.2 Tourism value of natural assets ........................................................................... 85 4.2.1 Measuring tourism values....................................................................... 85 4.2.2 The role of Cape Town’s natural assets in tourism................................. 90 4.3 Recreational value to local residents ................................................................... 94 4.3.1 The value of local green open spaces .................................................... 95 4.3.2 The value of Table Mountain National Park sites and Kirstenbosch....... 95 4.3.3 The value of Cape Town’s beaches ....................................................... 96 4.3.4 The combined recreational value of Cape Town’s natural assets .......... 97 4.3.5 Future recreational value opportunities .................................................. 98 4.3.5.1 The impact of management on values ..................................... 98 4.3.5.2 Availability of facilities and areas for recreation ....................... 99 4.4 Values associated with globally significant biodiversity ..................................... 101 4.4.1 Threats to biodiversity values ............................................................... 103 4.5 Natural hazard regulation .................................................................................. 104 4.5.1 Wildfire prevention and mitigation ....................................................... 105 4.5.1.1 Fire damage costs ................................................................. 105 4.5.1.2 Fire management costs ......................................................... 105 4.5.1.3 The role of Invasive Alien Plants in fire .................................. 106 4.5.1.4 Status of IAPs and clearing costs .......................................... 107 4.5.1.5 The role of natural assets in managing risks ......................... 107 xix 4.5.2 Flood attenuation .................................................................................. 109 4.5.2.1 Flood damage costs .............................................................. 110 4.5.2.2 Flood management costs ...................................................... 112 4.5.2.3 The role of natural assets in managing risks ......................... 112 4.5.3 Storm surge attenuation ....................................................................... 115 4.5.3.1 Costs associated with storm surges ...................................... 115 4.5.3.2 Storm surge management costs ............................................ 117 4.5.3.3 The role of natural assets in managing risks ......................... 118 4.5.4 Combined values associated with natural hazard regulation ................ 120 4.6 Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation......................................... 121 4.6.1 Urban lakes: Multiple use amenities or malfunctioning waste dumps?................................................................................................. 121 4.6.2 Towards value creation and cost minimisation ..................................... 122 4.6.3 Knock-on effects of poor stormwater management .............................. 124 4.7 Aesthetic values and sense of place ................................................................. 125 4.7.1 Enhanced health and wellbeing............................................................ 126 4.7.2 Contribution to the Cape Town brand and an enhanced business environment ......................................................................................... 127 4.7.3 Benefits flowing to specific sectors: the film and advertising industry ... 128 4.7.3.1 Economic value of the film and advertising industry .............. 129 4.7.3.2 Filming and natural assets ..................................................... 129 4.7.4 Property value enhancement................................................................ 130 4.8 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 131 Appendix 4.1: Summary information on valuation studies conducted in Cape Town .................................................................................................. 135 Appendix 4.2: Detailed Calculation of travel and entry costs for TMNP sites and Kirstenbosch ...................................................................................... 147 Appendix 4.3: Additional options to respond to sea level rise in the City of Cape Town .................................................................................................. 149 Chapter 5: An analysis of expenditure patterns related to the environment for the City of Cape Town 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 150 5.2 Capital expenditure (CAPEX) ............................................................................ 152 5.2.1 Capital expenditure in absolute values (R million) ................................ 152 5.2.1.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection ....................................... 152 5.2.1.2 Other SEE capital expenditure .............................................. 153 5.2.1.3 Total capital expenditure........................................................ 162 5.2.2 Capital expenditure as percentage of total budget ............................... 163 5.2.2.1 2004/5 Budget ....................................................................... 163 5.2.2.2 2005/6 Budget ....................................................................... 163 5.2.2.3 2006/7 Budget ....................................................................... 164 5.2.2.4 2007/8 Budget ....................................................................... 164 5.2.2.5 2008/9 Budget ....................................................................... 165 xx 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.2.2.6 Budget forecast: 2009/10–2011/12 ........................................ 165 5.2.3 Capital expenditure as a percentage of city line function ..................... 166 5.2.3.1 GFS 09 – Environmental Protection ...................................... 166 5.2.3.2 Other SEE capital expenditure .............................................. 167 Operational expenditure (OPEX) ....................................................................... 175 5.3.1 Operational expenditure in absolute values (R million) ........................ 175 5.3.1.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection ....................................... 175 5.3.1.2 Other SEE operational expenditure ....................................... 176 5.3.1.3 Total operational expenditure ................................................ 185 5.3.2 Operational expenditure as percentage of total budget ........................ 186 5.3.2.1 2004/5 Budget ....................................................................... 186 5.3.2.2 2005/6 Budget ....................................................................... 186 5.3.2.3 2006/7 Budget ....................................................................... 187 5.3.2.4 2007/8 Budget ....................................................................... 187 5.3.2.5 2008/9 Budget ....................................................................... 188 5.3.2.6 Budget forecast: 2009/10–2011/12 ........................................ 188 5.3.3 Operational expenditure as percentage of city line function ................. 189 5.3.3.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection ....................................... 189 5.3.3.2 Other SEE sector expenditure ............................................... 190 5.3.3.3 Total operational expenditure ................................................ 198 Realistic environmental expenditure (REE) ....................................................... 199 5.4.1 Capital expenditure .............................................................................. 199 5.4.1.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection ....................................... 199 5.4.1.2 Other REE sector expenditure ............................................... 200 5.4.1.3 Total capital expenditure........................................................ 204 5.4.2 Operational expenditure ....................................................................... 205 5.4.2.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection ....................................... 205 5.4.2.2 Other REE sector expenditure ............................................... 206 5.4.2.3 Total operational expenditure ................................................ 210 Operational expenditure: Environmental Resource Management ..................... 211 5.5.1 Departmental expenditure .................................................................... 212 5.5.1.1 Environment and heritage management ................................ 212 5.5.1.2 Environmental head office ..................................................... 212 5.5.1.3 Nature conservation............................................................... 213 5.5.2 Operational expenditure: total for ERM ................................................ 213 Trend analysis ................................................................................................... 214 5.6.1 Capital expenditure .............................................................................. 214 5.6.1.1 Absolute differences (R million) ............................................. 214 5.6.1.2 Percentage change ............................................................... 216 5.6.2 Operational expenditure ....................................................................... 218 5.6.2.1 Absolute differences (R million) ............................................. 218 5.6.2.2 Percentage change ............................................................... 220 5.6.3 REE Capital expenditure ...................................................................... 222 5.6.4 REE Operational expenditure ............................................................... 222 xxi 5.7 Discussion ......................................................................................................... 223 5.8 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 223 Appendix 5.1: International standards (GFS functions and sub-functions) used ....... 224 Chapter 6: A financial-economic evaluation model for the City of Cape Town’s natural capital 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 228 6.2 Expenditure on ecosystem services in the City of Cape Town: An assessment ....................................................................................................... 232 6.2.1 The value of the capital asset ............................................................... 232 6.2.2 Leveraging value ................................................................................. 232 6.2.3 Unit reference value ............................................................................. 234 6.2.4 Distribution patterns of capital and operational expenditure between the environmental and non-environmental sectors ................ 235 6.3 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 236 Appendix 6.1: Details of weighing the GFS sector expenditure on ecosystem service delivery................................................................................... 237 Chapter 7: Developing effective arguments for investing in the natural environment 7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 238 7.2 How arguments bring change ............................................................................ 239 7.3 Understanding the receptor: The municipality and the budgeting process ........ 241 7.3.1 Complexity and human behaviour ........................................................ 241 7.3.2 Decision-making processes.................................................................. 242 7.4 Understanding the transmission from argument to receptor .............................. 242 7.4.1 Divergence ........................................................................................... 242 7.4.2 Communication .................................................................................... 244 7.5 Case study: Cape Town Municipality................................................................. 246 7.5.1 Argument .............................................................................................. 246 7.5.2 Receptor ............................................................................................... 247 7.5.2.1 Budget adjustments and attention to environmental signals .. 247 7.5.2.2 Budget process ...................................................................... 251 7.5.3 Transmission and communication ........................................................ 254 7.6 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 256 Discussion and conclusion ...................................................................................... 258 References ................................................................................................................. 260 xxii List of Tables Table a: Table 1.1: Table 1.2: Table 1.3: Table 1.4: Table 1.5: Table 1.6: Table 1.7: Table 1.8: Table 1.9: Table 1.10: Table 1.11: Table 1.12: Table 1.13: Table 2.1: Table 2.2: Table 2.3: Table 3.1: Table 3.2: Table 3.3: Table 3.4: Table 3.5: Table 3.6: Table 3.7: Table 3.8: Table 3.9: Table 4.1: Table 4.2: Table 4.3: Table 4.4: Table 4.5: Table 4.6: Table 4.7: Table 4.8: List of ecosystem goods and services ..........................................................vi Classification of environmental values ......................................................... 5 Main ecosystem types and their services ................................................... 11 Functions, goods and services of natural and semi-natural ecosystems ................................................................................................ 13 Linkages between components of wellbeing and ecosystem services ...................................................................................................... 15 Beneficiaries of ecosystem services provided by the environment ............ 17 Examples of use and non-use values for selected ecosystems ................. 18 Sources of bias in contingent valuation studies .......................................... 25 Valuation techniques and their compatibility .............................................. 28 Avoiding common pitfalls to valuation ........................................................ 29 Values (R/ha) from a CV and hedonic study for the CCT ........................... 30 CCT nature reserves (excluding wetland reserves).................................... 32 Wetlands values (R/ha) for the CCT........................................................... 34 Summary of valuation studies for CCT natural areas ................................. 35 Functions performed by natural and semi-natural environments which occur within the boundaries of the City of Cape Town ..................... 45 The various types of goods and services provided by the interviewees can be sorted according to the specified categories .............. 47 Categories, types and examples of natural/semi-natural environment beneficiaries .......................................................................... 48 Categories of ecosystem goods and services ............................................ 59 User groups identified during the consultative process .............................. 60 Natural asset categories of ecosystem goods and services ....................... 66 Matrix of beneficiaries plotted against EGS category ................................. 67 Avoiding common pitfalls in valuation......................................................... 73 Ecosystem goods and services provided by Zandvlei ................................ 75 Matching EGS to valuation techniques at Zandvlei .................................... 78 Summary of value estimates for Zandvlei ................................................. 80 Relative importance of EGS based on perceptions of City line function managers and senior staff ............................................................ 82 Western Cape regions visited by tourists .................................................. 86 Tourist visit purposes in Cape Town and the Western Cape ..................... 87 Travel costs associated with trips including Cape Town in their itineraries ................................................................................................... 88 Travel costs that can be associated with Cape Town ................................ 90 Travel costs associated with natural assets in Cape Town ....................... 94 Value of local green open spaces in Cape Town ....................................... 95 Local recreational value of TMNP sites and Kirstenbosch ......................... 96 Local recreational value of Cape Town’s beaches .................................... 97 xxiii Table 4.9: Total recreational value of Cape Town’s natural assets ............................. 98 Table 4.10: Value of damages and management costs that could be avoided through IAP clearing and control ............................................................. 108 Table 4.11: Impacts of the July 2008 floods in Cape Town ....................................... 111 Table 4.12: Potential damage costs from flooding in the City of Cape Town over 100 years ................................................................................................ 112 Table 4.13: Value of flood buffering by natural assets ............................................... 114 Table 4.14: Scenarios of the loss of real estate value along the Cape Town coast ........................................................................................................ 116 Table 4.15: Summary of the value of total risks over 25 years associated with increased storm surges in Cape Town .................................................... 117 Table 4.16: Value of storm surge buffering by natural assets .................................... 120 Table 4.17: Consolidated value of natural assets in natural hazard regulation .......... 121 Table 4.18: Number of productions and expenditure in the Cape Town and Western Cape film industry (2005/2006) ................................................. 129 Table 4.19: Value of natural assets in the film and advertising industry ..................... 130 Table 4.20: Summary of values associated with natural assets in Cape Town .......... 133 Table 6.1: The value of ecosystem services to the City of Cape Town: 2008: R million: A partial analysis .......................................................................... 229 Table 6.2: Actual expenditure by sector: The City of Cape Town.............................. 230 Table 6.3: Contribution of GFS expenditure sector to ecosystem service delivery ..................................................................................................... 231 Table 6.4: Capital value of the nature-based asset: R million: 2008 ......................... 232 Table 6.5: Return on capital investment .................................................................... 233 Table 6.6: Relationship between public value generation and public expenditure .............................................................................................. 234 Table 6.7: Unit reference value of the natural capital stock of the City of Cape Town ........................................................................................................ 234 Table 6.8: Ratio: Capex to Opex: Summary .............................................................. 235 Table 6.9: Ratio: Capex to Opex: By GFS sector ...................................................... 235 Table 6.10: Comparison of environmental to non-environmental expenditure ............ 236 Table 7.1: Mapping facilitators and barriers to research utilisation............................ 244 Table 7.2: Essentials of communications .................................................................. 245 Table 7.3: Environmental signals based on terms used in media releases, speeches and documents by the City of Cape Town ............................... 249 Table 7.4: Environmental signals based on search volume on the internet in the Western Cape .................................................................................... 250 Table 7.5: Budget process, City of Cape Town ......................................................... 252 xxiv List of Figures Figure 1.1: A categorisation of value perceptions........................................................... 6 Figure 1.2: Diagrammatic representation of the Total Economic Value framework .................................................................................................... 8 Figure 1.3: An integrated framework for valuing ecosystem goods and services ......... 10 Figure 1.4: Categories of ecosystem goods and services ............................................ 12 Figure 1.5: Marshallian demand curve and consumer surplus ..................................... 16 Figure 1.6: Monetary valuation techniques and economic welfare ............................... 19 Figure 1.7: Choosing a valuation technique ................................................................. 27 Figure 2.1: Framework for integrated assessment and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services ................................................................... 42 Figure 3.1: Six-step valuation methodology ................................................................. 65 Figure 3.2: Monetary valuation techniques and economic welfare ............................... 71 Figure 3.3: Choosing a valuation technique ................................................................. 72 Figure 4.1: Relative importance of activities ................................................................. 91 Figure 4.2: Preferred scenery types ............................................................................. 92 Figure 4.3: Tourist highlights ........................................................................................ 93 Figure 4.4: Natural hazard buffering by ecosystems ................................................. 104 Figure 4.5: Responses to storm surge risks likely to entail least regrets .................... 119 Figure 7.1: Making the case ....................................................................................... 240 xxv List of Boxes Box 1.1: Box 3.1: Box 4.1: Box 4.2: Box 4.3: Box 4.4: Box 4.5: Box 4.6: Box 4.7: Box 4.8: Box 7.1: Box 7.2 Economic benefit of trees in cities .............................................................. 31 Ecological challenges in the City of Cape Town ......................................... 69 Cape Town’s travel awards ........................................................................ 89 Blue Flag beaches – benefits and risks of a loss of status ........................ 97 Value creation at Zandvlei and the Lower Silvermine River ..................... 100 The role of community support and partnership in creating value ............ 101 Educational values associated with the City’s natural assets ................... 103 Non-fire impacts associated with invasive alien plants ............................. 109 City of Cape Town Management of Urban Stormwater Impacts Policy........................................................................................................ 124 Awards bestowed on Cape Town for its quality of life .............................. 128 Proposed core messagess ....................................................................... 246 Investing in natural assets: Communications template............................. 254 xxvi Introduction by Martin de Wit The City of Cape Town’s natural assets – land, coast, biota, atmosphere and water bodies – are under pressure. The City’s latest State of the Environment Report indicates that over 60% of the City’s original vegetation has been lost and 30% of the remaining vegetation is considered either endangered or critically endangered. Pollution of freshwater and coastal ecosystems, largely as a result of unsatisfactorily treated wastewater and polluted urban stormwater runoff, is an intensifying problem. Access to nature for people living in and visiting Cape Town is also on the decline. There are, however, also some encouraging signals of pressures abating, such as improving air quality, reduced water use and reduced pressure on landfills from solid waste. These reduced pressures may or may not be temporary. Without a sustainable decoupling between economic and population growth, and the use of resources and the pollution of the environment, pressures on natural assets are likely to continue in a developing City such as Cape Town. The municipality is considering reinvesting more of the proceeds of growth into maintaining natural assets. There are good reasons for doing this. First, natural assets produce a flow of goods and services that have a value to people living in and visiting the City of Cape Town. These values arise from healthy ecosystems and include clean air and water, the regulation of natural hazards such as fires, floods and coastal storm surges, biodiversity and aesthetically pleasing areas and landscapes supporting tourism, recreation, economic activities such as the film industry and education. Urban natural assets, if not managed and protected well, are prone to degradation. The flows of goods and services from such degraded assets are of a lesser quality or might even cease. A second related reason is that the degradation of urban natural assets impedes on the ability of the municipality to deliver services in a cost-effective way. The natural environment supports the municipalities’ mandate of service delivery. If ecosystems services are lost, municipal service delivery declines. At best this can be substituted or remedied with costly engineering solutions, but in many instances nature’s services cannot be easily replaced at all. The value derived from urban natural assets under control of the municipality can be enhanced by better management, but can also be lost due to a lack of management. From a financial point of view the decision to invest in urban natural assets is not primarily based upon environmental considerations. It is based on broadly-accepted rules of financial management that assets need to be maintained to yield a healthy flow of valuable goods and services. Continued destruction of assets will eventually, depending on the resilience of the asset in question, lead to a loss of economic, social or cultural values and impede municipal service delivery. 1 Arguments to preserve the environment have traditionally not focused on the financial logic of investing in natural assets. The argument that the natural environment needs to be preserved for its own sake may have raised awareness and educated people on the importance of the natural environment, but have not provided a convincing financial rationale to invest in natural assets. The broader economic value of the natural assets and the goods and services these assets generate for the City is poorly understood and largely ignored as part of decision-making processes. The real value of these ecosystem goods and services is not acknowledged in municipal accounting systems and, therefore, not sufficiently included in budget allocations for the management and expansion of natural assets. The rationale for this study is to develop a financially motivated business case for investing in natural assets in the City. The broad objective of this study is to develop a coherent natural resource economics model and methodology for the City of Cape Town that can be used to guide the generation of a business case for the environment. The focus of the overall project is to influence budget allocations by developing focused economic arguments for investing, maintaining and expanding the City’s natural assets. The overall study is constructed according to the following phases: • Phase 1: International review of valuation techniques and their applicability, pros, cons and data requirements • Phase 2: Consultation with City line functions in order to better understand the ecosystem goods and services found in the City, using a participatory approach • Phase 3: Development of a methodology to value the natural resource base of the City of Cape Town • Phase 4: Pilot valuation to demonstrate and test the valuation methodology • Phase 5: Development of the business case This report is presented in the following seven chapters: • Chapter 1: Literature review • Chapter 2: Report on consultation • Chapter 3: Methodology for valuation • Chapter 4: Valuation studies • Chapter 5: Environmental expenditure • Chapter 6: Modelling • Chapter 7: Effective argumentation 2 Chapter 1: Economic valuation of natural assets and ecosystem goods and services: A review of the literature Lead author: Doug Crookes With contributions from: Martin de Wit 1.1 Introduction The City of Cape Town (CCT) is renowned as one of the most attractive cities in the world to live in and boasts a particularly high quality of life. It provides a home for a melting pot of cultures, racial and ethnic groups. Its mild Mediterranean climate, scenic beaches and close proximity to the wine route and other attractions have also meant that it has long been a favoured destination for national and international tourists and other visitors. The iconic Table Mountain, along with the Cape Floristic Kingdom creates a unique and diverse set of ecosystems with the CCT as its capital. The CCT is faced with balancing the need to maintain these natural assets on the one hand, and the challenges it faces with the day-today management of the city, including service delivery, housing demand, waste disposal and pollution management, on the other hand. These factors are compounded by the fact that there are strong linkages between the natural resource base and economic activity in the CCT, notably tourism, agriculture and fishing, and indirectly in other sectors such as manufacturing. This report stems from the need to mainstream biodiversity in decisionmaking and planning processes by developing a business case for the environment. The CCT in its Integrated Metropolitan Environmental Policy (IMEP) strategy committed itself, amongst others, to the following measures: • Adopting and implementing the principles and underlying approaches to sustainable development of the CCT, and ensuring the integration of environmental issues into local government decision-making at all levels; • Ensuring that current generations use natural resources in such a way so as to maximise the benefit to all, while ensuring that those resources are protected for the use of future generations; • Developing and implementing detailed sectoral strategies, in order to implement and enforce the general policy principles, for all environmental issues so as to meet the commitments described in the sectoral approaches; • Using a holistic approach to the environment and to protecting the CCT’s unique biodiversity; • Taking special responsibility on behalf of the global community to ensure the conservation and protection of the Cape Floristic Kingdom. 3 Environmental resource economics (ERE), and more specifically the valuation of ecosystem goods and services (EGS), is a tool that may be used to meet these commitments. Firstly, valuation tools provide a framework for providing a common currency through which information may be shared with relevant decision makers and across line functions. Secondly, environmental valuation provides a framework for valuing the benefits that accrue to future generations. Thirdly, ERE valuation tools can address sectoral issues such as environmental governance, biodiversity resources and cultural heritage, thereby contributing towards a holistic approach to environmental management. Finally, valuation can be used to assess the benefits derived from the many ecosystem services that are associated with the natural resources in the CCT and how those benefits are distributed. This chapter encompasses the following: • A study of best practice international approaches to natural resource valuations. • A clear and concise summary of approaches used, the pros and cons of each, and their data requirements. In order to achieve this, the chapter includes: • a classification of economic and non-economic interpretations of value • a discussion on categories of environmental goods and services (EGS) • a discussion on the link between natural resources, environment and EGS to human wellbeing and economic welfare • a case for the use of the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach addressing the question why monetary valuation is important in decision making • an approach integrating TEV and the EGS approaches • a discussion on the criteria for selecting specific valuation approaches • the link between valuation and real world mechanisms The chapter comprises a number of sections. Section 1.2 develops the concept of value as it relates to the various perspectives on value and the various parties in a valuation exercise. The framework of Total Economic Value within this context is also discussed. In section 1.3 a framework for valuing the environment is presented, linking ecosystem goods and services with environmental beneficiaries. Section 1.4 highlights a number of valuation techniques, along with a framework for selecting a technique and common pitfalls in the valuation process. Section 1.5 examines selected case studies drawn from the CCT’s various habitats, and section 1.6 concludes with a brief discussion on the economic instruments or measures that can be used to capture values or better reflect them. 1.2 What is value? 1.2.1 Classifications of value A growing body of environmental ethics literature distinguishes between various classifications of value. Two primary categories stem from this literature: anthropocentric 4 perspectives and ecocentric (or biocentric) perspectives. A third category, the so-called theocentric approach, 1 is sometimes also distinguished. The anthropocentric perspective is based on the view that the environment exists for the benefit of humankind. The ecocentric position, however, argues that the environment is the primary consideration and humans are subservient to this. A number of schools exist in each position, ranging from a resource exploitative position which does not take the environment into consideration, on the one hand, to the perspective of ‘deep ecology’ on the other which adopts an extreme ecosystem preservationist stance. The field of environmental and resource economics falls largely between these two extremes, with the Total Economic Value framework and anthropocentric view based on the concept of environmental stewardship for the benefit of current and future generations. Table 1.1 provides a further categorisation based on the distinction between intrinsic values (values which are beneficial on their own merits) and instrumental values (values which are beneficial to the extent that they benefit others). Table 1.1: Classification of environmental values Anthropocentric Non-anthropocentric Instrumental Total Economic Value: personal use and non-use (incl. existence value related to others’ use) The values of other animals, species, ecosystems, etc. (independent of humans) Intrinsic “Stewardship” value Value an entity possesses (unrelated to any human use) independently of any valuer Source: Eftec 2006 “Stewardship values” are subjective values dependent on the cultural context in which a valuation takes place. Non-anthropocentric intrinsic values, however, are values from an objective sense, independent from any human valuer. Total Economic Value falls within the shaded area in the table, with existence values related to conservation of resources ‘for their own right’ falling into the intrinsic value category (Turner et al. 2002). 1.2.2 Whose values count? Given the number of different potential users of natural resources, and the polarisation between development and conservation on the one hand, and rich and poor on the other hand, the question may be asked, which of these perspectives matter? While this is largely a normative question, a valuation study is made easier if there are fewer actors or role players to take into account. The various parties may be categorised based on their differing value perceptions (see Figure 1.1). Commercial users are interested in the market values of natural resources, or in alternative landuses. Subsistence users are interested in natural resources as a source of livelihood. Ecological groups are interested in natural resources as part of a broader ecosystem. 1 Theocentricism is the perspective that God is the central consideration, rather than humans (anthropocentrism). It holds to the view that humans should look after the natural environment in the way that God wants them to. 5 In addition, users may also be categorised in terms of those who currently utilise the resource, and those who will use the resource in the future. Finally, the different users may have different land use objectives, for example, commercial users may be interested in the restoration of natural capital for economic development purposes. Figure 1.1: A categorisation of value perceptions Source: Based on De Wit et al. (2000) 1.2.3 Why do we need to value the environment? The environment provides a vast number of goods and services (see the next section for a discussion of some of these services). In some cases these services are “free” goods, in the sense that society does not pay for them. However, this does not mean that they are not valuable. On the contrary, these services can be highly valuable to society with the true worth only being realised once that benefit is lost. An example of this is the waste assimilation properties of the ocean absorbing sewage discharges, or the carbon sequestration properties of certain plants and shrubs. In other cases, prices for environmental goods do not reflect their full value to society, for example the entry fee visitors pay to access Table Mountain National Park may not reflect their full willingness to pay. If the true value of environmental amenities is not known, it can result in resource misallocation and can also result in EGS not being factored into decision-making processes. There are at least four reasons why it is important to value the environment. Firstly, integration between the natural and the social sciences provides better information to facilitate the policy and decision-making processes. For example, valuation of open spaces can provide an indication of those areas that enhance property values and those areas that diminish property values. This provides a means of prioritising budgets towards improving degraded areas and a motivation for maintaining good areas. Secondly, understanding the importance beneficiaries place on the natural environment motivates for the business case 6 for the environment and also allows budgetary processes to be correctly prioritised. In addition, understanding the value of resources can also ensure that valuable species and habitats are conserved. Thirdly, the Bill of Rights enshrined in the Constitution gives government the responsibility to take reasonable measures to ensure that the environment is protected for the benefit of present and future generations. In order to do this it is necessary to gather information on how current losses to the environment may impact on these beneficiaries. A number of other frameworks such as the Western Cape Sustainable Development Implementation plan (DEADP 2005) also support the implementation of environmental and resource economics approaches. Fourthly, high quality natural capital is increasingly becoming the limiting factor to development. This suggests the need to invest in this limiting factor, and requires a strategic reprioritisation of economic objectives in the light of these scarcities. A number of case studies both locally and abroad indicate the efficacy of economic valuation techniques. For example, a landmark judgement in the United States occurred when damages resulting from an oil spill off the coast of Alaska were apportioned on the basis of a contingent valuation study (the Exxon Valdez case). In South Africa, a number of examples where the use of environmental valuation techniques resulted in the change in the outcome of Environmental Impact Assessments are documented in Crookes and De Wit (2002). The reader is also referred to the case studies in Chapter 5 of this report for further applications of environmental valuation in the City of Cape Town. 1.2.4 The TEV approach The Total Economic Value (TEV) approach is widely used as a framework for incorporating the complex and interrelated interactions between the physical attributes of the environment and the associated value flows (see Figure 1.2). The framework is used to value both market and non-market benefits, as well as values derived from future use, along with values totally unrelated to future consumption. There is no universally accepted framework for Total Economic Value. Usually a distinction is drawn between use and non-use values, the former being those values that involve some interaction with the environment and the latter being those values derived from the knowledge that a resource exists. However, this categorisation creates a problem for the so-called option values, which involve preservation of a resource in order that it may be used in the future. Some would classify these as use values, while others classify them as non-use values. In addition, so-called quasi option values is the value of future information made available through the preservation of a resource. Using the use value/non-use value categorisation, a distinction can be drawn between direct use values and indirect use values. Direct use values are those associated either with the consumptive use of the resource (e.g. food, fuel, water, timber) or non-consumptive use (e.g. tourism). Indirect use values are associated with the benefit derived from the ecosystem, without directly consuming it. Examples include climate regulation, carbon 7 sequestration and erosion control. Non-use values are usually divided into two categories: existence and bequest values, although sometimes altruistic values are also included in this category. Existence values are those values associated with knowing that a resource is available, irrespective of whether the individual will ever benefit directly or indirectly from it. This value is highest for charismatic species such as the big five, or Asian Pandas. Bequest values measure the willingness-to-pay by current generations to ensure that the environment is preserved for future generations. Altruistic values are similar to existence values, except that a value is placed on contemporaries deriving a benefit from the resource. Figure 1.2: Diagrammatic representation of the Total Economic Value framework 1.3 The environment-economy interface 1.3.1 Why is the environment important? The natural environment of the CCT provides a vast number of benefits. With regard to its function as a ‘waste sink’, it assists the CCT with in absorbing wastes generated by production and consumption activities. For example, air and wind circulation around the CCT disperse air pollution and reduce overall concentrations of toxic gasses. In addition, landfill sites absorb and process solid wastes and biodegrade them. Trees and other natural barriers absorb noise pollution generated by the CCT’s traffic. And oceans, rivers and wetlands process some of the grey (non-potable) and waste water outfalls. At the same time it should also be recognised that the environment can also be a source of costs (disamenities) such as a security risk or source of fires. Many of these costs and risks can be ameliorated through the application of sound management principles. 8 In addition to its ‘waste sink’ functions, the environment of the Western Cape is unique and provides a rich habitat for endemic reptiles, amphibians, fish, invertebrates and a sanctuary for 15 of the 21 critically endangered vegetation types in South Africa (DEADP 2005). The environment contributes directly to humans living in the area through improved health, and the provision of water, food, shelter and building material, as well as supplying local medicines and through bioprospecting potential. The environment also benefits the CCT indirectly through tourism, agriculture (through a number of services such as nutrient cycling and pollination), and employment. For example, it has been estimated that 20% of manufacturing jobs in the CCT are agriculture related (CNDV Africa 2005). 1.3.2 Integrated valuation framework An integrated framework needs to consider the services that ecosystems provide, the impact these goods and services have on economic systems such as crops, water, livestock and energy, and how this relates to Total Economic Value (see Figure 1.3). Natural capital is defined broadly to include mineral deposits, land and other aspects of ecological systems. Human capital includes both the supply of labour and the knowledge that this encompasses. Social capital is the range of institutional arrangements and interpersonal interactions that follow from this. Manufactured capital encompasses the fundamental elements of the economic system. These various forms of capital have limited substitutability and, in turn, contribute to the supply of ecosystem goods and services and other factors of production. These goods and services have a value in their own right (that can be assessed using the Total Economic Value framework), but also impact on the generation of cultural values and the benefits derived from economic goods and services such as food. Waste from the production of economic goods negatively impacts the forms of capital, in particular the availability of natural capital. It also impacts negatively on the sense of wellbeing that a society enjoys. While the environment contributes to wellbeing, other socio-cultural values such as health expenditure and education can also contribute, along with other marketed goods that may be purchased. Benefits from the enjoyment of environmental and other goods and services are either distributed spatially (at a local, regional or international level), temporally (on a short-term or long-term basis) or at the level of the user (individual, commercial or public entity). Whether an impact is of a short- or long-term duration is dependent on the nature of the impact and the environmental stressor concerned. For example, the water purification functions of wetlands are important for sustaining fish stocks, and short-term changes will have immediate consequences, while other changes such as habitat destruction might only impact future generations. In addition, certain effects are reversible while others are permanent. 9 Figure 1.3: An integrated framework for valuing ecosystem goods and services Source: Based on Eftec (2005) and Constanza (2001) 1.3.3 Categories of Environmental Goods and Services There are at least two ways of categorising environmental goods and services. The first is by categorising them in terms of alternative definitions of landuse, and the second is categorising them by ecosystem function. The former approach is adopted by the World Bank and the latter is adopted by such proponents as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) and authors such as Rudolf de Groot. However, these different approaches should not be considered independent of each other as there are strong overlaps. For example, the World Bank study categorisation is based on the goods and services mentioned in the MEA. We will now discuss each of these classifications in turn. The World Bank distinguishes between 11 goods and services provided by the environment, and 10 ecosystems (of which only nine are reported on in the current context). Results range from island habitats, which provide four out of the 11 goods and services mentioned, to forest ecosystems that provide all of the mentioned services (see Table 1.2). It is unlikely that many other cities around the world would have an environment that encompasses so many of these ecosystem categories, with only the polar environment of no relevance to the CCT. 10 Table 1.2: Main ecosystem types and their services Ecosystem service Cultivated Dryland Forest Urban Inland Water Coastal Marine Freshwater • Food • • • Timber, fuel, and fiber • Novel products • • • Biodiversity regulation • • • Nutrient cycling • • • Air quality and climate • • • Human health • Detoxification • • • • • • • Natural hazard regulation Mountain Island • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Cultural and amenity • • • • • • • • • Total number of goods and services 7 8 11 6 10 10 7 6 4 Source: Pagiola et al. (2004a) A weakness of this categorisation is that it is difficult to see where the fynbos biome would be categorised. In practice it is likely that it would fall into a number of different categories, including coastal, mountain and island. A categorisation of ecosystems relevant to the CCT and how they relate to total economic value is developed in a subsequent section. Related to the World Bank categorisation is the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) categorisation. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) distinguishes among four categories of goods and services, namely: • provisioning services that relate to the products derived from ecosystem, including food, fiber and fuel, genetic resources, medicines and pharmaceuticals • regulating services that involve the benefits derived from the regulation of ecosystem processes, such as air quality regulation, climate regulation, water regulation, erosion regulation, disease regulation, pest regulation and natural hazard regulation; • cultural services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems such as reflection, recreation, inspiration and aesthetic enjoyment, and include cultural diversity and educational values; and 11 • supporting services are those necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services, such as soil formation, photosynthesis, primary production, nutrient cycling and water cycling. In terms of the Total Economic Value framework, provisioning services fall largely within the direct use category, regulating services are largely indirect use values, cultural services comprise both a direct use component for values such as recreation, and an existence value component for most of the remainder (see Figure 1.4). Figure 1.4: Categories of ecosystem goods and services Source: Based on Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) and Pagiola et al. (2004b) Supporting services on the whole do not form part of TEV, but are valued indirectly through the services they provide to other ecosystem goods and services. A second framework that is commonly proposed is similar to the MEA approach in that four ecosystem functions are distinguished: regulation functions, habitat functions, production functions, and information functions. Table 1.3 provides a description of each of those functions, and examples of goods and services that stem from each of those functions. A strength of this framework, that distinguishes it from the MEA approach, is the prominence of the concept of ecosystem maintenance (Blignaut & Aronson 2008). The term ‘maintenance’ has a multifaceted connotation that includes a forward looking orientation 12 (taking action today to secure future benefits), protecting, safeguarding or restoring a natural asset. Table 1.3: Functions, goods and services of natural and semi-natural ecosystems Functions Goods and services (examples) Regulation Functions Maintenance of essential ecological processes and life support systems 1 Gas regulation • • • UVb-protection by O3 (preventing disease). Maintenance of (good) air quality. Influence on climate (see also function 2.) 2 Climate regulation • Maintenance of a favourable climate (temp., precipitation) 3 Disturbance prevention • • Storm protection (e.g. by coral reefs) Flood prevention (e.g. by wetlands and forests) 4 Water regulation • • Drainage and natural irrigation Medium for transport 5 Water supply • Provision of water for consumptive use (e.g. drinking, irrigation and industrial use) 6 Soil retention • • Maintenance of arable land Prevention of damage from erosion/siltation 7 Soil formation • • Maintenance of productivity on arable land Maintenance of natural productive soils 8 Nutrient regulation • Maintenance of healthy soils and productive ecosystems 9 Waste treatment • • • Pollution control/detoxification Filtering of dust particles Abatement of noise pollution 10 Pollination • • Pollination of wild plant species Pollination of crops 11 Biological control • • Control of pests and diseases Reduction of herbivory (crop damage) Habitat Functions Providing habitat (suitable living space) for wild plant and animal species 12 Refugium function • Maintenance of commercially harvested species 13 Nursery function • • Hunting, gathering of fish, game, fruits, etc. Small-scale subsistence farming & aquaculture Production Functions Provision of natural resources 14 Food • • • Building and manufacturing (e.g. lumber, skins) Fuel and energy (e.g. fuel wood, organic matter) Fodder and fertilizer (e.g. krill, leaves, litter) 15 Raw materials • • Improved crop resistance to pathogens and human pests Other applications (e.g. health care) 16 Genetic resources • • Drugs and pharmaceuticals Horticulture, floriculture 13 Functions Goods and services (examples) 17 Medicinal resources • Variety in (bio)chemical substances in, and other medicinal uses of, natural biota 18 Ornamental resources • Information Functions Providing opportunities for cognitive development 19 Aesthetic information • Enjoyment of scenery (scenic roads, housing, etc.) 20 Recreation • Travel to natural ecosystems for eco-tourism, outdoor sports, etc. 21 Cultural and artistic • information Use of nature as motive in books, film, painting, folklore, national symbols, architect., advertising, etc. Resources for fashion, handicraft, jewellery, pets, worship, decoration and souvenirs (e.g. furs, feathers, ivory, orchids, butterflies, aquarium fish, shells, etc.) 22 Spiritual and historic information • Use of nature for religious or historic purposes (i.e. heritage value of natural ecosystems and features) 23 Science and education • • Use of natural systems for school excursions, etc. Use of nature for scientific research Source: De Groot et al. (2002) While all of these frameworks are respected and utilised, we would like to suggest that the MEA categorisation is probably the most widely accepted and applied. One of the strengths of the of this framework way it develops the linkages between the environment and human wellbeing, a topic we now turn to. 1.3.4 Links between EGS and human wellbeing Human wellbeing comprises a number of facets, including basic materials for a good life, health, security and positive and cohesive social relations (see Table 1.4). Basic materials for a good life comprise the means for maintaining a living, including income, food and shelter. This component is heavily influenced by socioeconomic circumstances, particularly in terms of the provisioning functions of the ecosystem such as food, fuel and timber: wealthy individuals will be able to purchase these goods from any location while the poor are more strongly influenced by local materials. The health component of wellbeing relates to the ability of an individual to lead a healthy life free of sickness and disease. Again socioeconomic linkages are likely to be highest for the provisioning services such as medicinal plants, water and other resources. The linkages with socioeconomic conditions are also highest for this component. Good social relations relate to the presence of social cohesion, mutual respect and the ability to help others. These are most strongly affected by the cultural services that ecosystems provide for those cultures with strong links to the environment. Finally, security relates to three elements: personal, tenure and environmental. The provisioning services are most strongly influenced by socioeconomic conditions of the users, since a loss of access to these resources can affect the security of poorer households. Changes in the regulating functions of ecosystems such as disease 14 regulation, pest regulation and natural hazard regulation can have a strong influence on security. Table 1.4: Linkages between components of wellbeing and ecosystem services Component Freedom of choice and action Constituents of wellbeing Basic materials for • Income a good life • Employment • Food • Water Strength of linkage (medium, high) Socioeconomic circumstances Ecosystem service & wellbeing Provisioning (high) Provisioning (high) Regulating (med) Regulating (high) Health • Nutrition • Water and sanitation • Vector borne diseases • Medicines Good social relations • Social cohesion • Mutual respect • Ability to help others Security • Personal safety Provisioning (high) Regulating (high) • Secure resource Regulating (med) Provisioning Cultural (med) (med) access • Security from disasters Provisioning (med) Regulating (med) Provisioning (high) Regulating (high) Cultural (med) Cultural (med) Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. When viewed holistically, it is clear that ecosystem services are often crucially important for all constituents of human wellbeing. Cutting across the components that make up wellbeing is the individual’s freedom of choice and action, which affect the extent to which someone is able to achieve and do what he or she values doing. This is predicated on the other components of wellbeing. In addition, ecosystems contribute to the real economy (such as Gross Domestic Product and employment). Damage to ecosystems erodes natural capital and can have profound impacts on the livelihoods of those dependent on natural capital even if this is not always reflected in commonly used economic statistics. 1.3.5 The environment and economic welfare The concept of economic welfare is important to valuation studies, and should not be confused with the more all-encompassing concept of human wellbeing. Economic welfare as commonly applied in economics is primarily related to the price of a good. For example, entry to a park may be charged at R10.00. However, an individual might derive 15 considerably more utility (benefit) than the price reflects. One measure of economic welfare is the concept of consumer surplus. This measures the amount the consumer is willing to pay over and above the price. Consider the demand curve PQ for a particular good as given in Figure 1.5. Price P0 is what the consumer pays for a given quantity Q0 of that good. The shaded area represents the consumer surplus. To understand this concept, consider quantity demanded Q1. At this quantity the consumer pays price P0, but they are willing to pay price P1. The distance P1 - P0 is therefore the consumer surplus at quantity Q1. Applying this approach for all the quantities between 0 and Q0 gives the total welfare gain that the consumer experiences at the price P0 for a given demand curve. Figure 1.5: Marshallian demand curve and consumer surplus Such measures provide an indication of how consumers value scarce resources and can also be used to determine the welfare effects of unpriced goods. The measure can also be used to examine the welfare effects of changes in price, since the higher the price charged for a good, the lower the overall consumer welfare will be for a given demand. In Figure 1.5, this is illustrated by considering the effect if price P1 is charged for the good. The consumer surplus is then reduced to the triangular area between the horizontal line at P1, the vertical axis and the demand curve. A number of other welfare measures exist, such as (Hicksian) compensating variation and equivalent variation (these concepts are illustrated further in Chapter 2 under ‘valuation techniques’). 1.3.6 Beneficiaries A key component of any valuation study is to understand who benefits from ecosystem goods and services. Although these questions are not answered directly by the valuation exercise per se, it is possible to identify three main categories: private individuals, commercial enterprises and public bodies. Table 1.5 summarises the various spatial scales 16 on which these benefits are incurred. On a local level, individual users such as recreational visitors, businesses and local government benefit from goods and services. For example, a local municipality might benefit from the water purification function of a wetland or the waste assimilation properties of the ocean. Table 1.5: Beneficiaries of ecosystem services provided by the environment Local National/Regional Global Individual Local users (e.g. recreational users) Tourists, consumers, students Everyone (climate regulation, existence values) Commercial entity Local industry (e.g. entrepreneurs, farmers, traders, artisans) Economic sectors, national and regional GDP Public sector Local Government (e.g. tax revenue) National Government (e.g. tax International Community revenue, foreign revenue from sale of concessions) International enterprise (e.g. fishery and forestry industry) Source: Eftec (2006) At a national level, tourists, the regional and national economy, and national Government and parastatals benefit from economic sectors dependent on the natural environment, as well as the other provisioning and cultural services associated with EGS. Globally, international enterprises benefit from the natural resource sector, for example the fishing waters off a country’s coastline. In addition, all beneficiaries gain from the regulating functions of local ecosystems, as well the existence, option and bequest values of the natural environment. 1.3.7 Integrating EGS and TEV approaches There are numerous ecosystems within the city limits, including terrestrial, marine, rivers and wetlands, and many subcategories. To illustrate the link between ecosystem goods and services and Total Economic Value, Table 1.6 categorises four EGS based on landuse (three terrestrial and one aquatic) in terms of the economic values that are derived from them. It is evident from this that most of the direct use benefits accrue on a local, regional and global level, most of the indirect use values (with the exception of carbon storage and sequestration) accrue on a local and regional level, and option and non-use values impact on all levels (local, regional and global). Fynbos has the most direct use values of the ecosystems discussed, although many fynbos products are derived from a limited number of species. Bear in mind that one can also argue that a number of adverse consequences arise from these ecosystems – for example, the presence of fynbos could be said to increase the risk of the more rapid spread of fires. However, one needs to examine these adverse consequences relative to the alternatives to fynbos such as alien vegetation (higher risk of spread of fires and greater intensity of fires combined with negative impacts on the water environment) or urban sprawl (habitat loss associated with lost ecosystem services and amenity and reduced urban efficiency). 17 Table 1.6: Examples of use and non-use values for selected ecosystems Forests Wetlands Agrosystems Fynbos Direct use Products Fuelwood, NTFPs L Flowers Building materials LRG LRG Livestock, fisheries, hunting L LR Other food & beverage Fibre Visual amenity LRG LRG LRG LR LR L LR LR Genetic information Pharmaceuticals LRG LRG Traditional medicine L L Genetic diversity LRG Research G Recreation LRG LRG G LRG LRG Indirect use Pest control LR Rainfall regulation R Flood regulation LR LR Erosion control LR LR Storm buffering LR Nutrient cycling LR Pollination LR Carbon storage and sequestration G Water quality and quantity LR LR LR LR LR G G G LR LR Health L Option (future uses of above) LRG LRG LRG LRG LRG LRG LRG LRG Non-use Cultural knowledge and traditions Other values of habitat and species L = Local, R = Regional, G = Global LRG LRG Source: Based on Eftec (2005) and Turpie et al. (2003) 18 1.4 Valuation techniques 1.4.1 Overview of valuation techniques Valuation techniques may be divided into demand curve approaches and non-demand curve approaches (see Figure 1.6). Demand curve approaches are welfare measures in the sense that the implications of changes in environmental quality or attributes on society can be assessed. In addition, values are derived rather than prices. Non-demand approaches are easier to estimate than demand curve approaches, and are generally more appropriate when there are not large disparities between price and value. Figure 1.6: Monetary valuation techniques and economic welfare Source: Adapted from De Wit et al. (2000) 1.4.1.1 Change in productivity Definition As the name of the technique suggests, the objective of this economic valuation tool is to assess physical changes in production and to place an economic value commensurate with prevailing market prices. 19 When should this be used? If market prices are assumed to prevail and markets are relatively free of distortions, then this is an appropriate technique to employ. Strength • Relatively easy technique to apply Weaknesses • Cause-effect relationships may be difficult to establish • Benefit transfer may also not be appropriate in this instance, for example soil erosion effects may differ from site to site depending on a variety of factors • Only a small proportion of Total Economic Value is estimated Data requirements Change in ecosystem service, impact on production, net value of marketed resources 1.4.1.2 Human capital and Cost of Illness Definition Both approaches measure the cost of bad health resulting from environmental change. The COI approach measures sickness-related costs such as medicines, doctors visits and hospitalisation, while the human capital approach measure the associated effects on the productivity of labour. When should this be used? The Cost of Illness approach is most appropriate to value the cost of pollution-related morbidity, while the human capital approach measures loss of earnings as a result of mortality. Strength • Useful approach for conceptualising environmental hazards Weaknesses • Dose-response relationships not always available • Sometimes wrongly interpreted as a measure to place a value on a human life • Only values direct costs and loss of earnings. Other costs such as pain and suffering not included • Difficulty in defining the population impacted Data requirements Numeric data on the following: • Amount of pollutant (e.g. tonnes per annum) • Dose response relationship (effect of a unit change in pollutant on human health) 20 • Market value of health impact (loss of earnings, cost of illness) 1.4.1.3 Preventative costs Definition A number of similar techniques in this category include valuing environmental change through costs of mitigating or preventing a loss or changing behaviour to acquire greater environmental quality. This technique is also known as the averting behaviour technique. When should this be used? When costs of environmental damage a suitable measure for environmental change. Examples include water quality, noise nuisance and air pollution. Strengths • Relatively easy to use, provided appropriate market data available • Good welfare measure in certain cases, for example if the change in the price of environmental quality is low Weaknesses • Usually only provide a partial assessment of environmental impact, e.g. does not include effect on ecosystems • Actual expenditures may be constrained by income thereby underestimating value, or alternatively there may be secondary benefits associated with expenditures in which case actual expenditure will be overestimated Data requirements • Nature of preventative, mitigatory or averting behaviour • Costs expended in such behavior 1.4.1.4 Hedonic pricing Definition This approach is based on the supposition that the benefit an individual derives from an environmental good or service is based on the attributes it possesses. The property market is a case in point: if people pay higher prices to live in a particular area, this is usually as a result of a number of characteristics and features in that area, including environmental, as well as the socioeconomic profile of that individual. Hedonic pricing estimates consumer’s willingness to pay for a particular good based on a function of these and other attributes. When should this be used? • May be used for a variety of applications, including: o Air and water pollution o Noise pollution, e.g. road traffic o Proximity of environmental features such as water, woodland o Proximity of environmental hazards such sewage works, power stations 21 • o Evaluating the impact of neighbourhood improvements in poorer parts o Cultural benefits Suitable for longstanding environmental effects Strengths • Has the potential to assess option values • True (Marshallian) welfare measure • Uses real market data Weaknesses • Less appropriate where effects cannot be visually observed (e.g. productivity or groundwater impacts) • Reliant on properly functioning property markets • Data-intensive approach • Can be cumbersome and difficult to apply • Environmental quality variables may not be measurable Data requirements • Housing data, for example plot size, number of rooms, garage space • Socioeconomic data, for example unemployment rate, racial composition, social conditions, wage differentials, quality of schools • Environmental data, including environmental quality, access to services, and others 1.4.1.5 Travel cost Definition Observed behaviour is used to derive a demand curve and to estimate a value (including consumer surplus) for an unpriced environmental good by treating travel costs as a surrogate for variable admission prices. There are at least four types of travel cost models: the zonal travel cost model (ZTCM) divides travellers into zones and estimates visit rates from each zone. Visit rates are then associated with the costs of visiting along with socioeconomic variables in each zone. The individual Travel Cost Model (ITCM) is similar to the zonal TCM except that that visits by an individual or household are used as the basis for analysis. A third variety is the Random Utility Model (RUM), which has the advantage of taking into consideration the choice between different sites. An individual will choose a site where he or she derives the most utility (benefit) based on the site’s characteristics, socioeconomic variables describing the individual, and a random term that reflects uncertainty. A fourth type of model is the hedonic travel cost model (HTCM), is similar to the RUM except that the individual chooses that site which provides the visitor with a given number of attributes at the lowest cost. Other sites are not visited. 22 When should this be used? This technique is appropriate when: • EGS have a recreational benefit, such as woodlands, wetlands, national parks, rivers and lakes, and coastal areas • There is no charge for the good or service, or the charge is low • People expend significant time or other costs to travel to the site Strengths • Benefits from unvalued or low valued recreational sites may be determined • Demand curve may be derived, as well as an estimate of consumer surplus • Uses real market data Weaknesses • Only appropriate for recreational benefits • Hard to use when visits are to multiple destinations • Underestimates TEV as it only estimates use values • May have substantial data requirements Data requirements Survey to eliciting information such as: number of visitors, place of origin, frequency of visits, direct travel expenses, duration of journey, time spent at site, and other characteristics. 1.4.1.6 Replacement cost Definition This technique measures the value of an environmental asset by estimating the cost of replacing or restoring it once it is damaged. When should this be used? • The magnitude of damage is measurable • The replacement costs are calculable and not greater than the value of productive resources destroyed • There are no secondary benefits associated with expenditures Strengths • This approach has wide application in assessing the physical effects on a wide range of media • It is relatively easy to apply Weakness • Has a tendency to overestimate the true value of an environmental resource 23 Data requirements • Data on extent of environmental damage incurred • Costs of replacing or restoring that loss 1.4.1.7 Contingent valuation Definition This is a survey approach that aims to elicit respondent’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a particular set of environmental qualities or a change in those qualities, or willingness-toaccept (WTA) as compensation for a loss in environmental qualities. In theory WTP and WTA measures should produce equivalent results. When should this be used? • When environmental changes have no impact on market behaviour • It is not possible to observe preferences directly • The population in the sample is representative and interested in the subject of the valuation study Strengths • In theory applicable to all contexts, including where no market exists at all • Useful for valuing all components of Total Economic Value, including option and existence values • Completed surveys provide profile of target population • Suitable for valuing changes in environmental quality Weaknesses • May be vulnerable to various form of bias (see Table 1.7) • Can be costly in terms of budgets and manpower • Some surveys may provide too much of a cognitive burden for respondents • Can be difficult for unqualified observers to assess quality of results Data requirements Survey in which a scenario is presented and which gathers information such as respondent’s WTP, socioeconomic characteristics and other factors. 1.4.1.8 Choice modelling Definition Choice modelling (also called conjoint analysis) is based on the notion that value is derived from the attributes of a particular good or situation. CM is used to see how consumers respond to changes in those attributes. Respondents are presented with different combinations of attributes, each with a price attached to it. By making their choice, respondents indicate their willingness to pay or willingness to accept different 24 environmental attributes or scenarios. Choice modelling techniques include choice experiments, contingent ranking, contingent rating and paired comparisons. When should this be used? • It is appropriate for use in valuing any environmental good or service • When only selected attributes of a resource are affected Table 1.7: Sources of bias in contingent valuation studies Category Bias Explanation Strategic Free rider problem If asked to pay a price in excess of cost of provision may understate WTP to avoid that additional cost Direction Respondents may favour a certain outcome and over- or under-state their true WTP in a way that they believe will support that outcome Compliance Respondents may be tempted to give answers that they believe the interviewer wants to hear Starting point Price initially suggested by interviewer may influence WTP of respondent Vehicle Instrument of payment may influence WTP, e.g. a tax may be less favourable than an entrance fee Information Sequence in which information given, or amount and quality of the information might lead respondent to believe certain features more important than others Hypothetical Arises when hypothetical bids differ from actual bids. Difference arise in that in an actual market respondents suffer a cost while in a hypothetical market they incur no loss Operational Where the operating conditions in the hypothetical market differ from actual market conditions. This necessitates for example the need for the respondents to know the goods that they are asked to value Design Market Source: Based on Pearce and Turner (1990) and Blignaut and Lumby (2004) Strengths • This technique may be used to value both use values and non-use values • Given that only one attribute needs to be varied, this approach can be used to value individual environmental attributes • Welfare impacts of a change in environmental quality can be determined • Does not directly ask willingness-to-pay questions Weaknesses • Analysis of the data selected is complex • As for CVM, many types of biases exist in responses • Constraints in cognitive ability of respondents to process complex choices with multiple attributes • Not as widely tested as contingent valuation 25 • Some techniques are not based on economic theory Data requirements Survey in which good, services, attributes and prices are accurately specified. 1.4.1.9 Benefit transfer Definition Although not a valuation technique per se, benefit transfer has been widely employed where time and budgetary constraints preclude a detailed valuation study from being performed. Adjusting valuation results from other studies in similar contexts for application within the current study is a simple and potentially rigorous approach if conducted in the appropriate manner. When should this be used? When the study site is comparable to the policy site, the issues are similar in the two cases and the original valuation procedures were sound. Problems potentially arise when these conditions are not met, or where the underlying assumptions on which the valuation study were conducted are no longer valid. Strengths • Detailed valuation study not required • Not as complex as many other valuation methods Weakness • May result in inaccurate estimates where correct assumptions are not employed Data requirements Valuation data from a comparable site. 1.4.2 Practical considerations when choosing a valuation technique Aside from the restrictions that the availability of an adequate budget imposes, there are two important considerations when selecting a valuation technique. The first of these relates to the availability of data and the selection of an appropriate framework. The second relates to, given the data, which is the most appropriate technique in a given context. With regard to the first consideration, there are a number of approaches for developing a framework for selecting a valuation technique. One approach is the impacts method which essentially links likely value outcomes to impacts such as those on human health, amenity, productivity, etc. (e.g. Dixon et al. 1994; Winpenny 1995). This framework is relevant for assessing a change in environmental quality but is less relevant when evaluating the benefits of existing ecosystem goods and services. A second approach that is adopted in this review is to categorise values on the basis of the nature and availability of prices 26 (Blignaut & Lumby 2004). Five categories are distinguished: market prices, shadow prices, direct or indirect proxies, or no proxies at all. Figure 1.7 provides a framework for selecting an appropriate valuation technique based on these categories. Figure 1.7: Choosing a valuation technique Source: Based on Blignaut and Lumby (2004) The options are as follows: • If efficient market prices are available, changes in productivity techniques are employed. • If non-distorted (efficient) market prices are not available, surrogate market approaches such as the travel cost and hedonic pricing methods are used. • When market prices are not available, but direct (efficient) proxies are, a variety of assumed preference techniques are indicated such as replacement cost, cost of illness, opportunity cost or dose response methods, or other benefit transfer methods (BMTs) are applicable. • When indirect proxies are available, revealed preference methods such as the travel cost method and the hedonic pricing method are appropriate. • Finally, if no market prices or proxies are available, non-market methods such as the contingent valuation method or choice modelling approaches may be used. 27 It should be noted however that often it is necessary to use a combination of valuation techniques rather than a single technique to value environmental benefits. Some techniques lend themselves more readily for use in combination with other techniques. Table 1.8 indicates which technique is appropriate for use in which context. Table 1.8: Valuation techniques and their compatibility Technique Use in combination with other methods Market price proxies Some aspects of pricing approaches, such as mitigation costs, may serve as inputs into the production function approach framework Production function Mitigation costs/averting expenditures and avoided costs may be included within the production function framework, since these actions will alter production and cost functions. Market prices (and even WTP or WTA estimates for non-market changes) can be incorporated to estimate the economic value of the change, where production function is used to estimate the physical change. Hedonic pricing The hedonic pricing method is principally a stand-alone method with relatively small scope for combination with other methods. Travel cost method The travel cost method is closely related to the random utility model. Additionally, the survey aspect of the method implies that it can be combined with stated preference methods, where it is possible to elicit information on travel costs and values for a simulated market involving the environmental good of interest. Random utility model The ability to explain choice among alternative sites comes at the expense of the ability to explain total demand for recreation. Hence the travel cost method and random utility model are complementary methods for estimating the value of environmental goods and service from travel cost surveys, and the decision as to apply which will depend on the required output. As with the travel cost method, the random utility model can also be used in conjunction with stated preference methods if a survey is used to collect the data. Contingent valuation The method can be combined with deliberative and participatory methods. For instance, oneto-one in-depth interviews, focus groups and workshops could be used to investigate methodological issues such as consumer versus citizen preferences. Contingent valuation studies may also be carried out in conjunction with travel cost studies or avertive expenditure studies since data necessary for all these studies could be collected through a single questionnaire. Choice modelling The potential for combination is similar to that of contingent valuation. Source: Eftec (2006) Once a technique is selected based on the availability of data, and issues of compatibility with other techniques are investigated, a number of failsafe principles need to be applied (see Table 1.9). 28 Table 1.9: Avoiding common pitfalls to valuation Use net benefits, not gross benefits Failing to consider the costs involved in using resources (the cost of harvesting products, for example, or the cost of piping water from its source to the user) results in an over-estimate of the value of ecosystem services. Include opportunity costs The cost of an action is not limited to the out-of-pocket costs involved in implementing it. They also include the opportunity costs resulting from the foregone benefits of alternative actions (or inaction). Omitting opportunity costs makes actions seem much more attractive than they really are. Don’t use replacement costs … unless you can demonstrate (i) that the replacement service is equivalent in quality and magnitude to the ecosystem service being valued, (ii) that the replacement is the least cost way of replacing the service, and (iii) that people would actually be willing to pay the replacement cost to obtain the service. Don’t use benefits transfer … unless the context of the original valuation is extremely similar to the context you are interested in. Even then, proceed with caution. However, it is a good idea to compare your results to those obtained elsewhere. Don’t use value estimates based on small changes in service availability to assess the consequences of large changes in service availability Economic value estimates are not independent of the scale of the analysis. Value estimates are almost always made for small (‘marginal’) changes in service availability, and should not be used when contemplating large changes. Be careful about doublecounting Many valuation techniques measure the same thing in different ways. For example, the value of clean water might be measured by the avoided health care costs or by a survey of consumer WTP for clean water. But consumer WTP for clean water is due (at least in part) to their desire not to fall sick, so these two results should not be added together. If they are, the value of clean water will be overestimated. Don’t include global benefits when the analysis is from a national perspective More generally, only consider benefits (or costs) that affect the group from whose perspective the analysis is being undertaken. Including benefits which are primarily global in nature in an analysis undertaken from a national perspective is a particularly common form for this mistake, and results in an over-estimate of the benefits to the country. Adjust for price distortions … when conducting the analysis from the perspective of society as a whole, but not when conducting the analysis from the perspective of an individual group. Avoid spurious precision Most estimates are by necessity approximate. Don’t simply paste the result in the spreadsheet, with its three decimal points, into the report: round the result appropriately. When there is substantial uncertainty, report the results as ranges. Submit results to sanity checks Are the results consistent with other results? Are they reasonable in light of the context? Extraordinary results are not necessarily wrong, but must be checked carefully. Extraordinary results require extraordinary proof. Source: Pagiola et al. (2004b) For example, a technique may be compatible with other techniques, but do they value the same thing in different ways? If so, issues such as double counting may be a factor. Furthermore, while a technique such as benefits transfer might be easy to apply in practice the results of certain valuation studies may not be readily transferable to a local context. In all cases the given context of a study is important for all valuation studies. In addition to these principles, it might also be appropriate in certain instances to control for income 29 differentials between groups; otherwise it suggests that poor people value the environment less, which is clearly not an accurate interpretation. 1.5 Case studies A number of local case studies discuss landuses applicable to the CCT, including terrestrial, riverine and marine. Box 1.1 summarises benefits from trees as an example of other benefits from natural resources in urban spaces. 1.5.1 Recreational and agricultural zones A detailed pilot study of urban open spaces in the Cape Metropolitan area (Turpie et al. 2001) provides some indications of the value of undeveloped land in the CCT. The study considered open space values within two areas of the Metropole, the Southern region (comprising Grassy Park, Lakeside, Lavender Hill, Lotus river, Marina da Gama, Muizenberg, Pelican Park, Phillipi, Retreat, Steenberg, Zeekoevlei and Zerilda Park) and the South Eastern region (comprising Bloekombos, Brackenfell, Driftsands, Eersterivier, Eersterivier South, Khayelitsha, Kuilsrivier, Macassar, Mfuleni, Mitchells Plain, Penhill, Rustdal and Sarepta). A contingent valuation study estimated the value of use, option and existence values of open spaces, while a hedonic study determined the impact of open spaces on property values. Not all open spaces produce a positive value: vacant lots provide a disamenity of R6 082 per hectare in Metro SE due to uncertainty about future use and increased security risk. Close proximity to parks on the other hand provides a premium of R104 239 per hectare (annualised) in 2007 prices (see Table 1.10). Table 1.10: Values (R/ha) from a CV and hedonic study for the CCT Landscaped parks Contingent Valuation Hedonic pricing Metro S Metro SE Metro SE 4 050 3 181 104 239 20 394 36 570 19 563 Natural vegetation 7 081 1 165 - Vacant land 1 021 316 -6 082 57 684 937 - Sports fields Agricultural fields All values are in 2007 rands. Landscaped parks = mowed areas with swings; sports fields = golf courses, soccer fields, etc.; natural vegetation = fynbos and strandveld; vacant lots = grassy or with aliens or barren; agricultural fields = grazing lands, vineyards, etc. Source: Based on Turpie et al (2001) The results of contingent valuation surveys indicate that people were willing to pay between R1 021 and R57 684 per hectare to conserve open spaces in the relatively wealthier Metro South region, with agricultural fields being the most valuable. A smaller range of willingness to pay is encountered in the South East, with sports fields the most valuable at R36 570 per 30 hectare. The results indicate the benefits of rehabilitating marginal areas such as vacant lots. Box 1.1: Economic benefit of trees in cities Trees in urban centres provide a number of benefits. These include: A. Energy and human health • Heating and cooling costs – A 25 foot tree reduces annual heating and cooling costs of a typical residence by 8 to 12%, producing an average $10 savings per US household. Also, buildings and paving in city centres create a heat-island effect. A mature tree canopy reduces air temperatures by about 2.5 to 5.5° C, influencing the internal temperatures of nearby buildings. • Air quality and cleansing – A typical person consumes about 175 kg of oxygen per year. A healthy tree can produce about 118 kg of oxygen annually – therefore it takes 1.5 trees to supply the oxygen needs of one person for a year. Also, cooler air temperatures created by tree canopies reduce smog levels by up to 6%, producing savings in air clean-up campaigns. Finally, a mature tree absorbs from 55 to 110 kg of the small particles and gases of air pollution. In Sacramento, CA, for instance, this represents a value of $28.7 million. • Improved water quality – The canopy of a street tree intercepts rain, possibly reducing the amount of water that will fall on pavement and then must be removed by a stormwater drainage system. In one study, 32 ft. tall street trees intercepted rainfall, reducing stormwater runoff by 1 240 litres. Savings are possible since cities can install surface water management systems that handle smaller amounts of runoff. B. Retail and commercial • Consumer patronage – In a survey of one US community, 74% of the public preferred to patronise commercial establishments whose structures and parking lots are beautified with trees and other landscaping. • Commercial land values – In a survey of real estate appraisers, 86% of respondents agreed that landscaping added to the dollar value of commercial real estate. 92% also agreed that landscaping enhances the sales appeal of commercial real estate. • Boosted occupancy rates – One study looked at 30 variables – architecture and urban design – of potential importance in determining office occupancy rates. Results suggest that landscape amenities have the highest correlation with occupancy rates, higher even than direct access to arterial routes. C. Residential property values • Increase house prices – Several studies have analyzed the effects of trees on actual sales prices of residential properties. Homes with equivalent features – square footage, number of bathrooms, location – are evaluated. In one area a 6% increase in value was associated with the presence of trees; an increase of 3.5 to 4.5% was reported in another study. • Tree size and value – A team of researchers compared tree size and public valuations of homes. Tree size did not affect the judgments of price for low price homes, but did affect values of more costly houses. For more expensive homes, small and medium-sized trees enhanced the public’s perception of real estate value. Source: University of Washington (1998) The nature reserves falling under the jurisdiction of the CCT comprise diverse landscapes, from lowland and mountain Fynbos, to Renosterveld in the centre and Strandveld along the coastline (see Table 1.11). These reserves support a variety of ecosystems and as yet unvalued benefits from recreation and ecosystem goods and services. The CCT’s 2006 Sustainability report highlighted a number of challenges associated with these areas, including promoting accessibility to good quality open spaces through improved transportation linkages to these areas, and also regulating the cost of entry for local 31 inhabitants. Maintaining and improving the quality of these reserves contributes towards the CCT’s objective of recreating a dignified and aesthetically pleasing city. Table 1.11: CCT nature reserves (excluding wetland reserves) Vegetation Location Area (ha) Mamre Nature Garden Lowlands fynbos North 200 Rondebosch Common Lowlands fynbos South 40 Kenilworth Racecourse Conservation Area Lowlands fynbos South 42 Harmony Flats Nature Reserve Lowlands fynbos East 9 Helderberg Nature Reserve Mountain fynbos East 407 Silverboomkloof Nature Reserve Mountain fynbos East 5 Kogelberg Nature Reserve Mountain fynbos East 3500 Tygerberg Nature Reserve Renosterveld Central 300 Durbanville Nature Reserve Renosterveld Central 6 Bracken Nature Reserve Renosterveld Central 36 Blaauwberg Conservation Area Strandveld North 1000 Atlantis Dunefields & Silwerstroom CA Strandveld North 3000 Wolfgat Nature Reserve Strandveld South Central 248 Macassar Dunes Conservation Area Strandveld South Central 1116 The CCT also contains a number of other important parks and reserves within the City limits. Although these parks are not under their administration, they are still important to the environment and aesthetics of the City. The most important of these include Table Mountain National Park (administered by SANParks), Robben Island World Heritage Site, Driftsands nature reserve and parts of Kogelberg biosphere reserve and Hottentots Holland nature reserve (Cape Nature), Cape Flats nature reserve (University of the Western Cape), the Plattekloof Natural Heritage Site and Koeberg Nature reserve (Eskom) and Kirstenbosch National Botanical gardens (administered by SANBI). These areas are also important draw cards for foreign tourists, with 60% of tourists using Table Mountain Cableway, 56% visiting Cape Point, and 36% visiting Kirstenbosch during the summer of 2002 (Standish et al. 2004). For domestic tourists this was slightly lower, with 50% using the cableway, 34% visiting Cape Point and 25% visiting Kirstenbosch. The knock-on effects of these visitors on tourism in the CCT, and Western Cape region, is substantial. In 2005 the tourism sector contributed 14% to the gross geographic product (GGP) of the Western Cape (Lynn Brown Tourism Budget Speech 2008/9). The Western Cape received 1.74 million international visitors in 2006 and 3.2 million domestic visitors. The WC is also the province to receive the highest proportion of domestic holidaymakers, 44% of whom visit the CCT (SADTS 2001; 2006). Tourism is very clearly a growth industry for the province and the CCT, with an increase of 11% in international arrivals between April and September 2006 compared with the same period in 2005. 32 In addition to the recreational value of parks and nature reserves, a consumptive use benefit has also been derived from the harvest of forest stands for timber in the Table Mountain National park. The two main areas where harvesting has taken place since the year 2000 are Newlands forest and Orange Kloof (Standish et al 2004). Between 2000 and 2005 roughly 34 hectares of trees were felled to a total (2003) value of R2.7 million. Felling of stands, in particular pine, is nonetheless a controversial activity with unknown impacts on recreational users. We are not aware of any local studies that have looked at the opportunity costs of harvesting these resources. Non-commercial timber harvesting of mostly invasive alien stands for fuelwood also takes place in a number of areas around Cape Town. In addition to timber harvesting limited harvesting of medicinal plants, flowers and ornamental plants also occurs. This harvesting creates values and supports livelihoods although much of it is thought to occur illegally and with no real regard to sustainable extraction rates. 1.5.2 Geological features The study reported in Turpie (1998) used the hedonic pricing method to access whether property prices were affected by proximity to Table Mountain. A second component of the study determined whether a premium was charged for hotel rooms with mountain views. The study results were not significant for properties and hotel rooms in the City bowl. Of 44 hotels surveyed, only 9% placed a premium on rooms with a mountain view. A higher premium was placed on rooms with sea views, with mountain views rated second. The hedonic study, on the other hand did find a significant relationship between property prices in the Newlands area and proximity to the mountain. The study concludes that proximity to the City centre is a factor influencing property prices in the City bowl, and this has confounded the influence of the mountain views. 1.5.3 Rivers and wetlands The CCT manages approximately 10 wetland areas with a total area of around 4 626 hectares. The CCT’s wetlands have been the subject of a number of economic valuation studies. These have been considered from a number of perspectives. Firstly, wetlands may have either a positive or negative impact on the prices of properties in close proximity to them. In Zandvlei, for example property prices premiums were in the order of R 92.2 million in 2001 (van Zyl 2007). For Zeekoevlei houses on the vlei generated a premium of between 14% and 29% and this diminishes rapidly with distance from the vlei (Van Zyl & Leiman 2001). Secondly, a number of recreational and other values for wetlands are also estimated using expressed preference and revealed preference methods (Joubert & Turpie 2001; Turpie & Joubert 2001). Thirdly, a replacement cost study (Harding 2001) estimates the costs of constructing an artificial wetland, as well as water purification and storage functions. The wetlands selected for this study were, for Metro South: Langevlei, Little Princess Vlei, Princess Vlei, Rondevlei, Zandvlei, Zeekoevlei, and for Metro South East: Nooiensfontein Vlei and Khayelitsha wetlands. More recently, Lannas (2008) elicits direct 33 use values from agricultural production for Mfuleni wetland. Results are summarised in Table 1.12. Table 1.12: Wetlands values (R/ha) for the CCT River/Wetland Technique Metro S Metro SE All areas Contingent Valuation 2 533 5 838 Zandvlei (S), Kuilsriver (SE) Contingent Valuation 5 606 28 593 Zandvlei Travel cost 6 131 - Zandvlei (S), Kuils River (SE) Hedonic pricing 75 159 56 091 Selected (see text) Replacement cost 26 173 29 207 Mfuleni Household survey - 12 315 All values are in 2007 rands Many of the rivers in the greater Cape Town region are in poor ecological health (River health programme 2005). This has impacted on property prices in the City. For example, properties adjacent to Lotus River are on average lower by between 10% and 14% (Van Zyl & Leiman 2001). The Kuils River is an example of how rehabilitation can affect prices. Before rehabilitation property prices adjacent to the river were on average 10–12& lower than the surrounding areas (Van Zyl & Leiman 2001). After rehabilitation this discount had disappeared. 1.5.4 Coastline The coastline of the CCT is an area of approximately 308 km, stretching from north of Melkbosstrand on the West Coast to Kogelberg in the east. The area provides an interface between the marine environment with its protected and restricted use areas on the one hand, and fishing grounds on the other which provide a significant direct use benefit to the CCT, and the terrestrial environment with sand-dunes and shore-based fishing activities and collection of marine organisms. The existence value of the South African coastline was estimated by a contingent valuation study to be worth R75 million, of which R28.8 million is conservatively ascribed to the Cape Floristic Region (Turpie et al. 2003). It is probable that the majority of this value is attributable to the CCT given the hugely disproportionate share of population in this area compared with the rest of the CFR. Ballance et al. (2000) used the travel cost method to estimate the recreational use value of ten beaches along the Cape Peninsula. Extrapolating across all beaches in the CCT gave a value of between R9 and R50 million per year. The results from this survey indicated that between 85% and 97% of respondents would not visit the beaches if excessive litter was present, resulting in significant losses to the regional economy. 34 1.5.5 Summary Table 1.13 summarises the results of valuation studies, and associated values for the various landuses in the CCT. Estimates for the fynbos and strandveld reserves are based on the Turpie et al. (2001) value for natural vegetation. All values are inflated to the year 2007 to ensure comparability between studies. The high relative values for wetlands and parks are related to the house price premium that is derived from living in close proximity to these areas. The study did not report any estimates of hedonic values for those living in close proximity to reserves, so it is possible that these results would be much higher if this was the case. Furthermore, it should be noted that these results only summarise findings of existing valuation studies and are not meant to infer the total economic value of these ecosystems. The direct and indirect use values associated with nature-based tourism, fishing and other commercial sectors are not reported and are likely to be significant. Table 1.13: Summary of valuation studies for CCT natural areas R/ha ha Low High Average value Valuation 2007 R million Technique Reserves Mountain fynbos 3 912 1 165 7 081 16.1 CVM Lowlands fynbos 291 1 165 7 081 1.2 CVM 5 364 1 165 7 081 22.1 CVM 42 - - 4 626 2 533 75 159 - - - 1 962 3 181 10 4239 105.4 HP & CVM 260.4 19 563 36 570 7.3 HP & CVM 7 729.8 -6 082 1 021 -19.6 HP & CVM 3 265.9 937 57 684 - - - Strandveld Renosterveld Wetlands ? 179.7 HP & CVM Recreational Beaches Parks1 Sports fields1 Vacant land 1 54.5 TCM Other Agriculture1 Geological 95.7 CVM ? HP 1 Metro South and South East only 1.6 Valuation and other mechanisms The preceding sections have focused on environmental values and their measurement in monetary terms. It is important to also be aware of the economic instrument or measures that can be used to capture values or better reflect them. With this in mind, some of the main measures with potential relevance are briefly introduced here. 35 1.6.1 Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) Payment for ecosystem services (PES) involves compensating landowners in recognition of the ecosystem services provided on their lands. This system has been used extensively in Latin America. In Costa Rica, for example, landowners are compensated for reforestation, natural forest management, forest regeneration and protection practices. Financing of the transfer payments comes from a variety of sources, including a fuel tax, a tax on wood products, the issue of ‘forest bonds’ and from other beneficiary payments (Pearce 2004). In 1997 $14 million was disbursed for the conservation of 79 000 hectares, or around $180 per hectare. Environmental valuation is an important stage in the development of PES programs (Pagiola et al. 2004b). The payment vehicle needs to be set in such a way that the value of money received as compensation exceeds the cost of the alternative landuse, otherwise landowners will not be encouraged to switch behaviour. In addition, the cost to those making the payment must be less than the perceived benefits of conservation, otherwise they will not be willing to compensate landowners to conserve the land. 1.6.2 Environmental Fiscal Reform Environmental fiscal reform (EFR) is a system of taxation or other pricing instruments that serve to increase state revenue, while at the same time promoting environmental goals (World Bank 2005). EFR measures can achieve the goals of raising funds for conservation while at the same time achieving the joint objectives of poverty reduction and service delivery. Examples of EFR measures include a tax on natural resource use (e.g. forestry or fishing) to limit excessive exploitation, user charges and fees (such as charging gate entry fees to parks), subsidy reform including the elimination of adverse incentives, and pollution taxes. There are several situations where monetary valuation may be used in this context. Firstly, valuation may be used to determine the optimal level of abatement of pollution taxes. This occurs where the value of averted pollution damage equals the cost of abatement at the margin. However, valuation techniques are not yet at a point where this can be optimally determined. Secondly, valuation techniques may be used to determine user charges, for example based on the benefits of forests and other natural resources. Thirdly, valuation can eliminate asymmetric information that exists between stakeholder groups with regard to the value of goods and services provided by the natural resource base. The South African National Treasury has embarked on a process of reviewing and evaluating EFR options with a view to implementation and have released a discussion document entitled “A framework for Considering Market-based Instruments to Support Environmental Fiscal Reform in South Africa” (National Treasury 2006). With regard to reforms that would support biodiversity conservation, the focus has been on assessing the elimination of distortions and the introduction of incentives for conservation stewardship in the income tax and municipal property rates regimes. 36 1.6.3 Budgetary processes The priority that is placed on environmental conservation, and the associated amount directed towards conserving the natural resource base, may be indicative of the value of the environment. For example, the CCT in its biodiversity strategy has indicated that: “Critical to the success of any strategy, programme, or initiative, is the role of budgets and business planning. It is imperative that biodiversity be placed high on the agenda when budgets are finalised each year, within each of the relevant line functions” (City of Cape Town 2003:14). Furthermore, the fact that the World Bank invested US$11 million out of a total project cost of US$55 million over five years (2004–2008) in the Cape Floristic Region via the Cape Action for People and the Environment (C.A.P.E) programme is indicative of the value of this biodiversity hotspot not only to the local inhabitants but also to the international community. Often, however, these environmental resources that offer “free” services to the City do not receive equal rating along with other infrastructure programmes that are perceived to provide a financial benefit. Economic valuation may be used to provide a mechanism for quantifying these benefits, thereby enabling the natural environment to be compared more equitably with other projects and activities. An example of this is the case of Madagascar’s protected areas, where an analysis of the ecosystem benefits such as watershed protection provided an incentive to enhance the country’s PA network. 1.6.4 Alternative measures of sustainability Traditional measures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures economic activity but does not measure true social and economic prosperity. A number of other measures have been developed, such as the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), Green Net National Product and the associated Genuine Savings measure. While many of these indicators are often data intensive to develop, they have the advantage that natural capital is taken into account. These approaches also differ from other welfare measures such as the UN Human Development Indicator in that environmental costs and benefits are explicitly quantified. 1.6.5 System of national accounts The System of National Accounts (SNA) is an accounting system that reflects the flow of goods and services through the economy. Traditionally this system has not taken into consideration the flow of environmental goods and services. More recently, the UN has developed a System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) that integrates the environment into the economic framework through a system of satellite accounts. South Africa has adopted this framework, and already a number of satellite accounts exist, notably 37 for minerals and for water. In theory, valuation techniques may be used for comparing information across these accounts, although in practice it is more common to reflect the physical flows of resources in these accounts. 1.6.6 Green funds and other measures A number of other approaches aim at creating markets for biodiversity products and capturing their value. For example, Bioprospecting is the sale of the right to prospect for medicinal plants and genetic material to pharmaceutical companies. A number of valuation studies have attempted to value the benefits of biodiversity for bioprospecting purposes (Pagiola et al. 2004b). The Biodiversity Act 10 of 2004 contains important provisions on the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the prospecting of indigenous biological resources. Labelling and product differentiation initiatives such as the Biodiversity and Wine Initiative (BWI) result in positive outcomes for biodiversity conservation by introducing it as a product differentiator in the marketplace. Companies undertake environmentally friendly actions (such as committing parts of their wine farms to conservation) on the basis that they will be able to sell their environmental bona fides to consumers that are increasingly demanding. In a similar vein, green funds such as that associated with Nedbank’s Green Affinity account allow Nedbank to make a contribution to nature conservation. They also allow the bank to attract more clients on the basis of their commitment to conservation. A further market-based approach is the so-called debt for nature swaps. DfNS involve the purchase, usually by an international conservation organisation, government or individual of a country’s secondary debt in exchange for environmental conservation. This option is appropriate where traditional revenues from protected areas are not available. Monetary valuation may be used in this instance to motivate the case for the conservation of nature. 1.7 Conclusion Valuation techniques are powerful tools for assessing the monetary values of environmental goods and services. We have highlighted a number of different techniques, and given an indication of when it is appropriate to use them and what their strengths and limitations are. While environmental valuation is widely applicable, it is not appropriate when: • time and budget constraints prohibit this • political decisions concerning the natural resource base have already been made • alternative approaches are more feasible given prevailing political realities and a given context Environmental valuation has the ability to express in monetary terms goods and services that would otherwise be regarded as “free”. As such, valuation is an appropriate approach for developing a business case for the environment. A further strength of valuation in the context of city planning processes is that it communicates to decision-makers in monetary 38 terms those issues that are important to their constituents. In economic terms this means that it is a human welfare measure. If the environment is highly prized, as would appear to be the case in the CCT, then it yields a high economic value. It also provides a framework for identifying priority areas where environmental rehabilitation is required. A limitation of the approach is that it cannot answer normative questions. For example, the issue of whether alien vegetation should be removed cannot be adequately addressed by valuation. If something has a benefit to a user, for example the existence value of a 300-year-old oak tree, then it can be expressed in monetary terms. The choice of valuation technique is contingent on a number of factors, including the availability of data, markets and resources. Certain techniques are also easier to apply than others. There is a growing body of literature on environmental valuation in South Africa, and as capacity develops to conduct these studies they are gaining increasing prominence in the policy arena in South Africa. Locally and abroad, environmental valuation is widely used as a framework for quantifying environmental benefits. This chapter has highlighted a variety of contexts in which valuation may be applied. While valuation is just one tool, we believe that it is an important tool that is able to make a significant contribution to the management of environmental resources in the City of Cape Town and beyond. 39 Chapter 2: Ecosystem goods and services: Reporting on consultations Lead author: Terence Jayiya, Natural Value JV and Jaymat Enviro Solutions CC Contributing author: Martin de Wit 2.1 Introduction The City of Cape Town is a global urban biodiversity hotspot. It is located within an area of world-class biodiversity and unique conservation value. This is a result of both the inland aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and the diverse coastal and marine habitats created by the relatively warm waters of False Bay and the colder waters of the Atlantic Ocean (CCT 2003). Also, the floral diversity relates to the steep environmental gradients, including altitudinal, geological and rainfall gradients, which have combined to create a large number of different habitats. This status of ‘biodiversity hotspot’ is further entrenched by the fact that the City of Cape Town is unique in that: • an entire National Park, the Cape Peninsula National Park (CPNP), is situated within the City’s administrative borders, • the City is bordered by, and overlaps with, two Biosphere Reserves (the Kogelberg and West Coast Biosphere Reserves) administered by the Western Cape Nature Conservation Board, and • the City of Cape Town itself administers 23 nature reserves which form part of the Cape Floral Kingdom. These reserves are seen as supporting species that are unique to Cape Town, many of which are under threat of extinction mainly from habitat destruction and invasion by alien plants. Besides the floral diversity, the environment in the City includes rivers, wetland bodies, coastal areas and other natural/semi-natural environments which add to the scenic nature of the City. The City also boasts numerous reserves and parks which are popular areas for recreation and relaxation. The City’s environment provides a space for people to use and there are opportunities for the City to derive some financial value from its use. Currently, the environment is used for a variety of reasons, including recreation, tourism, historic, cultural heritage, and intangible attributes such as character and landscape. Apart from its aesthetic appeal, the City’s natural resources are considered as playing a vital role in the regulation of its environment. 40 The challenge here is how to put a monetary value on the different ways in which people perceive the environment. This chapter attempts to show that the City’s natural and semi-natural environment is in fact a significant service provider, and that it provides “goods” (e.g. water for consumption) and “services” (e.g. waste treatment) that are important in meeting people’s basic needs and improving their quality of life. The specific purpose of this chapter is to present the outcomes of a series of interviews on ecosystem service provision held with the City’s relevant line function departments. The purpose of the consultative process (i.e. interviews) is to compile an inventory of the ecosystem goods and services produced by the City’s natural capital and, in so doing, identify the people who are benefiting from these goods and services. For the purposes of the consultation process we have included all open-space natural or semi-natural areas (e.g. floodplains, wetlands, City parks, sandy beaches or rocky beaches) when referring to natural and semi-natural environments. This chapter is divided into four sections. Section 2.1 gives the purpose and structure of this chapter. Section 2.2 is the outline of the method used to identify perceived goods and services from the relevant line function departments. Section 2.3 deals with the outcome (flow of goods and services) of the consultative process and all other stakeholder issues emanating from the interviews. Section 2.4 presents the conclusions of the consultative process. 2.2 Methods In total, 13 people from within the City were interviewed during the consultation process (see Appendix 2.1). These people are considered to either work with the City’s natural environment or have some information relating to it. A structured, generic questionnaire (see Appendix 2.2) comprising open-ended questions was compiled and used for interviewing key City line function people in order to understand what they consider to be (a) the functions performed by these natural areas, (b) goods and services, and (c) the beneficiaries of these goods and services. Thus, the information provided in this chapter relates to the answers provided by the City officials listed in Appendix 2.1. In developing the questions for the interviews, we adopted the conceptual framework of De Groot et al. (2002) which provides a framework for integrated assessment and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services. Figure 2.1 illustrates the framework by providing a comprehensive and consistent overview of all functions, goods and services provided by natural and semi-natural open-space ecosystems. It further describes their linkages with available valuation methods. (NB: The interviews were limited to the functions, goods and services, and beneficiaries and did not focus on valuation methods.) 41 Figure 2.1: Framework for integrated assessment and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services Source: Adapted from De Groot et al. (2002) As shown in Figure 2.1, the first step towards a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem goods and services involves the translation of ecological or natural complexity (structures and processes) into a limited number of ecosystem or environmental functions. These functions, in turn, provide the goods and services that are valued by humans. De Groot et al. (2002) defines ecosystem functions as “the capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs, directly (food for consumption, wood for energy) or indirectly (ecological regeneration, peoples appreciation of nature)”. Using this definition, ecosystem functions are best conceived as a subset of ecological processes and ecosystem structures (see Figure 2.1). Each function is the result of the natural processes of the total ecological sub-system of which it is a part. Natural processes, in turn, are the result of complex interactions between biotic (living organisms) and abiotic (chemical and physical) components of ecosystems through the universal driving forces of matter and energy. Apart from the three key questions (functions, goods and services, and users) of the interview process there was also a second set of questions which were intended to: • establish the beneficiaries or users of the City’s natural and semi-natural environments, • describe the priorities for further study and research through resource economics, • describe the threats and uncertainties facing the natural capital base of the city, and • describe the political choices which have been made regarding the natural/seminatural environment. 42 Answers to the questionnaire provided by the interviewees were then clustered under each question. Some interpretation of the answers in these clusters was done. 2.3 Natural resource flows This section discusses the inputs gathered during the one-on-one interviews. Each question in the questionnaire is given here as a sub-section. For each question (sub-section), the inputs that were provided during the interviews are then tabulated or bulleted and discussed, giving an interpretation of the answers. 2.3.1 Natural or semi-natural areas managed by the interviewees The City of Cape Town has a number of line function departments with branches that are tasked with managing the City’s natural/semi-natural environments or areas. These departments are key participants in the consultative process. The majority of the officials interviewed were drawn mainly from these line function departments or branches. All interviewees were asked to describe the natural or semi-natural environment (or asset/amenities, open-space type areas) under their jurisdiction. A number of natural/seminatural areas (assets) managed by the interviewees were identified. They are the following: • Blaauwberg Conservation Area (BCA) is an area of approximately 2000 ha, comprising a rich mosaic of natural, cultural and historic elements. It is considered an important part of the City’s biodiversity network. It consists of a coastal area, a wetland and an inland more terrestrial component. The BCA provides numerous economic, educational and recreational opportunities to the City’s residents. • False Bay Ecology Park (FBEP) is a multi-use park covering an area of 1200 ha. This includes Rondevlei and Zeekoevlei Nature Reserves, a coastal strip, waste water treatment works, and a solid waste landfill site. It provides numerous recreational, tourism and educational opportunities. • Biodiversity: The Biodiversity Management Branch is responsible for the conservation of biodiversity within the City’s boundaries. This includes the Biodiversity situated in the City’s 23 reserves, as well as outside the City reserves (such as in City parks). Included in this are also the six endemic national vegetation types that occur in the City. • The City Parks: All of the City’s parks are managed under one department. City parks include playgrounds, cemeteries, crematoriums, landscaped road reserves, traffic intersection and scenic drives. City parks are seen as very important for recreational activities and also for aesthetic enjoyment. • Freshwater river systems. • Coastal areas which are mainly used for recreational purposes. • Urban storm water and river management (including watercourses and wetlands) are managed by the City’s Roads and Stormwater Department. 43 • Watercourses and wetlands are considered to be important components of the City’s biodiversity network and represent an essential element in restoring the urban fabric of the City by providing both recreational and economic opportunities. Apart from the people managing these areas, there were other interviewees who are not directly responsible for managing environmental areas/assets (e.g. finance, economic information, etc). This mix of people were able to speak about the specific areas under their jurisdictions and what they considered to be environmental goods and services emanating from the City’s natural/semi-natural areas. Given that different natural/semi-natural environments have varying abilities to perform functions and supply environmental goods and services, it was necessary to establish the areas managed by the interviewees. Thus, the first question was intended to establish the natural/semi-natural environments (assets) administered or managed by the interviewees. This is very important when one considers the goods and services answers provided by the interviewees. It is also important because it shows that the consultative process has covered a wide range of natural/semi-natural areas while seeking to understand the environmental functions, goods and services, and users of the City of Cape Town’s natural/semi-natural environment. 2.3.2 Natural/semi-natural environment functions After describing the natural/semi-natural areas under their jurisdiction, interviewees were asked to describe the natural/semi-natural environment functions which deliver goods and services. These functions can be described as the physical, chemical and biological processes or attributes that contribute to the self-maintenance of the environment, production of natural products or provision of space for other living organisms. In other words, the functions are defined as the capacity of the natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs, directly or indirectly (De Groot et al. 2002). With this definition illustrated, the nature of the City’s natural/semi-natural environment functions were given by the interviewees as represented in Table 2.1. 44 Table 2.1: Functions performed by natural and semi-natural environments which occur within the boundaries of the City of Cape Town (Table based on answers provided by interviewees.) Functions Description of the function Oxygen production This is the production of oxygen which is required to sustain life. The function also relates to the production of other atmospheric gases. Waste absorption/breakdown Unwanted or undesired substances are broken down naturally by microorganisms in the environment. This is assuming that the waste is biodegradable. Carbon sequestration This is the absorption and removal of carbon from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Soil binding, filtration and erosion control Relates to the role of soil components and vegetation in minimising soil loss and filtering sediments from water to improve water quality. Nutrient breakdown The process of storing, recycling and re-distributing nutrients. Water transport/capture Collection and distribution of water through rivers, wetlands and groundwater systems. The mitigation of floods is also included in this function. Water treatment/purification This is the treatment or purification of water into a state which could be used by biota. Plant pollination The pollination function is very important since it leads to the creation of new seeds that grow into plants. Education function The environment serves a subject of interest for numerous groups (e.g. school children). Spiritual, cultural and historic information The environment provides areas where people can practice spiritual and cultural rituals, gather information or use space for spiritual and cultural purposes. Provision of shade and shelter Trees provide numerous plants and animals with shade. Aesthatic space/areas Many areas provide attractive landscapes features. Habitat space Provision of space which could be used by plants and animals for reproduction, growth, etc. Production of resources This function relates to the capacity of the environment to produce food, material and other products which could be useful to living organisms. Genetic diversity Genetic diversity plays a role in sustaining production systems and maintaining and regenerating natural habitat. It provides the basis for future development of species in horticulture, agriculture and medicine. Although a wide range of functions were provided during the consultation process with the City line function departments, it is possible to categorise the functions given in Table 2.1 into the four categories as illustrated by De Groot et al. (2002). The nature of these categories include: • Regulatory functions: The capacity of the natural and semi-natural environments to regulate essential processes and life-support systems through biogeochemical 45 • • • cycles and other biospheric process. Examples from Table 2.1 include water purification, pollination, soil binding and carbon sequestration. Habitat functions: This is the provision of habitat to wild plants and animals, thereby contributing to conservation of biological and genetic diversity. Information functions: Natural and semi-natural environments provide almost unlimited opportunities and reference functions by providing opportunities for reflection, mental development, spiritual reflection and leisure. Examples from Table 2.1 include education function and aesthetic space. Production function: This relates to the capacity of the environment to produce material that is of benefit to other living organisms. An example from Table 2.1 is the production of resources. The functions listed in Table 2.1 help to illustrate how the City’s natural and semi-natural environment regulates itself and contributes to the general aesthetic appeal of the City. The lesson here is that the management of the environment as a City line function will ensure that natural resources continue to perform these essential functions. Conversely, if the environment is not managed properly, some functions may cease to exist and this will affect the ability of the environment to deliver goods and services to the City. 2.3.3 Natural/semi-natural environmental goods and service This section focuses on the range of goods and services provided by the City of Cape Town’s natural/semi-natural environment. This concept is used to demonstrate that the City’s natural environment is in fact a significant service provider and that it provides “goods” (e.g. water for consumption) and “services” (e.g. flood attenuation) that are important in meeting people’s basic needs and improving their quality of life. This contrasts with perceptions of the environment as an elite agenda focusing on plant and animal requirements rather than human needs (Roberts et al. 2005). A total of 13 interviewees were asked to provide a list of goods and services which might be associated with the City’s natural/semi-natural environments or at least the areas which are managed by the line function departments. This question yielded a number of ecological and socio-economic goods and services provided by the City’s natural and semi-natural environments. The complete list is given in Appendix 2.3. This is clearly a long list which needed some form of classification and grouping. For this reason, the goods and services resulting from the interviews were categorised (see Table 2.2) according to the method followed by De Groot et al. (2002) and the functions given in section 2.3.2. 46 Table 2.2: The various types of goods and services provided by the interviewees (see Appendix 2.3) can be sorted according to the specified categories. Information related Regulation related Habitat space related Production related Use for school excursions Water for consumption Space for biota to live and reproduce Fuel and energy Conservation of living resources Material for craft and fashion Travel to historic/religious Storm water sites purification/drainage Use of scenic areas for enjoyment/relaxation Preventing flooding of areas Small-scale urban farming Use in the production of films/events Pollution abatement Plant or animal material for medicines Use in advertising and books Healthy soils for production Wild flowers for harvesting Beauty, inspiration and recreation Oxygen provision Resources for collection Use for scientific research Waste assimilation The interviewees asserted that the above goods and services are essential to all communities living in the City of Cape Town but may, in specific cases, be particularly important in contributing towards meeting the basic needs (such as water, firewood, etc.) of poorer communities that do not have access to adequate infrastructure and services. 2.3.4 Beneficiaries In trying to understand goods and services, and consequently which environmental resources are important to sustainable development in the City of Cape Town, it is necessary to identify the beneficiaries (users) of the goods and services in the City. For this purpose, a number of key natural/semi-natural environment beneficiaries were identified during the interviews and are listed in Appendix 2.4. The detailed list given in Appendix 2.4 is categorised and represented in Table 2.3. 47 Table 2.3: Categories, types and examples of natural/semi-natural beneficiaries (A detailed list is given in Appendix 2.4.) environment Categories Types (examples) Notes Tourist groups: Interviewees explained that Cape Town was a favoured tourist destination partly as a result of its natural environment. International tourists Data and levies related to tourism is available at: • Nature reserves • Tourism organisations • City parks Recreation groups: Interviewees noted that the Cape Town environment offers space for a wide variety of recreational activities. Beach bathers National tourists Local tourists Sailors, surfers and rowers, horse riding Picnics and braais A number of the organised recreational groups keep data pertaining to their members. These will include sailing clubs, etc. Walkers, cyclists and hikers Sports Harvest groups: The activity of harvesting natural resource and other resources is a limited activity. Fishing Wild plant harvesting Urban agriculture Gathering fuelwood Information and cultural groups: The natural environment provides space for learning and human development. School excursions Scientific research The nature reserves will have data related to school excursions, gate fees, etc. History enthusiast Religious experience Book writers Industry groups: These are business activities which make use of the City’s natural environment. Film and events industry Shipping industry Tourism industry The City of Cape Town’s economic information group has industry specific information/data that could be accessed. Manufacturing and construction Advertising industry Craft makers Residential groups: Residential households derive a variety of benefits from the natural environment. This is the protection from floods and natural drainage provided by the environment. Households (Properties) 48 These resource users have different needs with respect to goods and services supplied by the natural/semi-natural environment. Goods and services are sometimes used directly as an input for consumers (e.g. household water) and for production processes (e.g. water for industry), and also indirectly by land users to ameliorate their impacts on the environment. In many instances, the City’s environmental services are often public goods, which mean that they may be enjoyed by any number of people at any given time without affecting other people’s enjoyment. For example, an aesthetic view in Blaauwberg or any part of the City is a public good. No matter how many people enjoy the view, others can also enjoy it. The problem with public goods is that although people value them, no one person has incentive to pay for or maintain the good. 2.3.5 Priorities for further study Interviewees were also asked to provide what they consider to be priority research areas for the future. This is environmental economics research that could be useful in the management of the City’s natural/semi-natural environment. Interviewees suggested a number of key resource economics priorities (some of which are overlapping) for the future. These include the following: • There is a need to show the value of what is being lost due to development. This could help advance the case for biodiversity within the City. • There is a need to show how we value the system so that we can get developers to pay for the natural drainage system and its maintenance. This should be part of the bulk infrastructure charge. • We need to understand the value of ecosystem goods and services. This would enable us to motivate for the required budgets for the management of these areas. • There is a need for a study to show how environmental management leads to tourism. • Urbanisation, bulk service infrastructure, resource depletion, loss of habitat, inappropriate off-road vehicle use. The main suggestion here is that it would be helpful if resource economics made it possible to convert the somewhat elusive value of natural/semi-natural environments and their associated goods and services into something understandable (i.e. a monetary value) to policy-makers and the general population. In a way this could help develop the required political understanding and support for natural resources within the City. This will avert situations where a lack of understanding of the interrelated nature of social, ecological and economic concerns results in natural resources concerns being marginalised when social and economic pressures are high. 49 2.3.6 Threats to the natural capital base The City of Cape Town’s natural beauty, perceived quality of life and vast economic opportunities create pressure on the City’s natural resource base. Interviewees stated that the threats are numerous and are showing no signs of abating. In order to protect the natural capital of the City, it is necessary to understand where the threats are emanating from. For this purpose, a number of threats to the natural capital base have been identified by the interviewees as the following: • Urban sprawl and urban development are seen as key driving forces behind the consumption of natural resources and replacement of natural space. • Sand mining poses a threat to biodiversity. • Privatisation of natural resources. If a space is privatised, it limits the number of people who might benefit from its goods and services, or the environment can be altered once it is in private hands. • Exclusion of the environmental agenda from development planning. • Illegal off-road driving in protected areas. • Water pollution. • Illegal water abstraction. • Invasive alien plants which pose a direct threat not only to biodiversity, but also to water security, the ecological functioning of natural systems and the productive use of land. Interviewees agreed that the City of Cape Town’s environment has been steadily eroded by the combined effects of the above threats and especially by the patterns of urban developments which have dominated the City’s recent history. It was noted that the price of allowing these threats to continue may be the extinction of species, the disappearance of accessible open-space and ultimately the loss of the City’s aesthetic appeal. Although the interviews revealed threats to the environment, it is also important to note that City’s residents value their access to the Cape Town natural landscape and the City has enacted some of South Africa’s progressive laws in an attempt to protect the natural resource base of the City. 2.3.7 Current uncertainties A number of uncertainties facing environmental management in the City were identified. These uncertainties include the following: • It is not clear what the political decisions are going to be in the future, and these might have implications for the management of the City’s natural resource base. • It is uncertain how climate change will affect the natural environment. • It is also not clear how the population growth is going to affect the natural environment. It is, however, expected that more people will require more resources and this would put pressure on the natural environment. 50 2.4 Conclusion The consultative process was designed to assist in the development of an inventory of goods and services flowing from the natural capital of the City of Cape Town. This approach was useful in that it focused on the goods and services that people discern from natural or semi-natural areas within the City of Cape Town. From the interviews with City line function departments it was learned that the natural/seminatural environments perform certain functions that are: • important for the maintenance of the natural/semi-natural environment, • producing a wide range of goods and services, • of benefit to the City communities and its visitors. The conclusion of this is that the City must act in a way that promotes the continued proper functioning of its natural/semi-natural assets to the benefit of its inhabitants and visitors. The interviewees also considered it important to mention potential threats and uncertainties facing the natural/semi-natural environment and thus its ability to perform its functions and offer benefits to all communities in the City of Cape Town. It is concluded that interviewees see the biggest threat as the form and shape of the development occurring in the City. Environmental goods services flow from natural assets (soil, water systems, plants, animals, other living organisms and the atmosphere) to provide the City with financial, ecological and cultural benefits. Examples of goods and services flowing from the City’s natural environment include: provision of clean water, flood attenuation, tourism opportunities, pollution control, and fulfillment of cultural, religious and intellectual needs. Most importantly, the goods and services from the environment are clearly benefiting all communities of the City and this dispels the notion that the environment is only about maintaining plants and animals. From the interview process with City line function departments it became clear that the challenge for the current project and indeed the City environment department is how to present to policy-makers and decision-makers the fact that if natural/semi-natural assets are not maintained the benefits from environmental goods services will decline over time. This decline will have an effect of threatening certain industries in the City and also the social wellbeing of the city’s residents. Conversely, if we maintain our natural assets and use them more effectively, they will continue to perform a wide range of functions and their associated goods and services will continue to flow, with the City benefiting from greater returns. 51 Appendix 2.1: List of people interviewed List of the interviewees from the City of Cape Town line function departments: Name City Line Function Contact Details Patricia Holmes Biodiversity Management Branch 021 710 9358 Barry Wood Catchment, Stormwater & River Management Branch 021 400 1204 021 400 3088 Greg Oelofse Environmental Strategy and Partnerships Branch 021 487 22 39 Joanne Jackson Environmental Strategy and Partnerships Branch 021 487 2184 Craig Haskins Information and knowledge management Branch 021 400 2066 Carol Wright Jeremy Marillier Economic Development Department 021 483 9023 Joe Olivier Sakhi Tsotsobe Sport, Recreation and Amenities Branch 021 400 4181 Johan Steyl Budgets Department 021 400 2070 Phumla Mrubata Carl Theunissa City Parks 021 400 2947 Candice Haskins Catchment, Stormwater & River Management Branch 021 400 3088 52 Appendix 2.2: Questionnaire 1. Could you list and describe the natural or semi-natural ecosystems (or natural areas/amenities, openspace type areas) falling under your jurisdiction? This could include area, size or number of areas, and might be wetlands, rivers, urban parks, urban amenities such as the planting of trees in road servitudes, etc.). (Box 1) Box 2: 2. Could you describe the ecosystem functions that deliver the goods and services in the natural area (e.g. habitat function, cycling carbon, trapping of nutrients). (Box 2) We are using a value approach rooted in people’s appreciation of nature. Some functions may be production of goods and services (for consumption for instance), and some may be regulation of the systems (nutrient cycling) some may be habitat provision. 3. Please describe the goods and services that result from the functions, e.g. better fishing, better views, reduced human health, flood prevention. (Box 3) 4. Could you identify the users of the environmental services? These are people who benefits from the goods and services. (Box 4) Box 1: The term ecosystems on its own may lead to a limited response – there are very little full ecosystems in cities under city mananger control – for this question we rather speak of anything related to open space systems natural amenity/area/function as listed in the question. Box 3: Examples of these could be appreciation of scenery (scenic roads, housing, etc.); fuel and energy (e.g. fuel wood, organic matter); provision of water for consumptive; flood and pollution control. Box 4: These could include Industrial users, (formal and informal residential, tourist who visit the city etc), Informal settlements on catchments, and users of fire wood. 5. What are the priorities for further study and management for the area you manage? 6. What are the current threats to the natural capital base of the City and thus to the provision of ecosystem goods and services? 7. Could you describe the current uncertainties you have to deal with in 53 managing these ecosystem/natural areas/amenities? 8. Could you describe any political choices that have already been made with regard to the management of these ecosystems/natural areas/ amenities? 9. Are the identified value of ecosystem goods and services currently linked to your financial/budget processes? If so, how? 10. Any other expert outside the city who we need to consulted about your area of management? 54 Appendix 2.3: Goods and Services from the interviewees List of goods and services as given by the interviewees (these have been categorised in Table 2.2): Goods and Services Drainage, natural irrigation and flood attenuation Clean air quality Use for religious purposes Scenic areas (roads, houses and parks) Use of environment for school excursions Tourism opportunities Trapping of nutrients Pollution abatement Transport of water Information that could be used for education, religious and cultural activities Opportunities for eco-tourism and outdoor sports Conservation of resource Open quality space Urban agriculture Water recharge Storm water purification Fuel and energy Drainage/natural irrigation Collection of material for craft, shells Oxygen and other atmospheric gases Small-scale urban farming Use of areas for filming and events Supply of drinking water Clean environment free of waste Living space for plants and animals 55 Appendix 2.4: List of users as suggested by interviewees Beneficiaries or user groups: 1. Cape Town residents 2. International tourists 3. National tourists 4. Industry 5. Information groups 6. Spiritual groups 7. Interest groups 8. Fishermen 9. People interested in history 10. Surfers and kite people 11. Walkers/Hikers 12. Botanist 13. Animal/Plant enthusiasts 14. Education sector 15. Bird watchers 16. Sailors/Rowers 17. Boating 18. Beach Bathers 29. Film Industry 20. Events companies 21. Craft designers 22. Film Industry 23. Oil and Gas sector 24. Transport sector (shipping) 25. Urban agriculture 26. Biota 27. School children 28. Harvest groups 29. Gathering fuel wood 30. Advertisers 31. Tourism industry 56 Chapter 3: Methodology to prioritise and value the natural and environmental resources of the City of Cape Town Lead author: Martin de Wit Contributing authors Hugo van Zyl James Blignaut Doug Crookes 3.1 Introduction The overall project and process of developing the methodology started with an international review of valuation techniques in Chapter 1. This review provided clarity on the current best practice in the field and started the process of conceptualising the methodology development. It was followed, as discussed in Chapter 2, by a consultation process with City line functions to generate a list of the ecosystem goods and services, and its users or beneficiaries. These lists were then reconciled with the international literature on ecosystem goods and services in order to refine and add to them. The first two phases thus provided much of the ‘raw material’ that was needed to develop the methodology which could then be analysed further. Aside from the internal study team processes, two workshops were held with key resource economists in order to develop and test the methodology. These workshops proved insightful and allowed for a relatively wide range of views to be brought to bear on the subject. In addition to expert resource economics inputs, City staff were consulted to ensure that the methodology was adequately scrutinised from the perspective of a group of line function managers and senior staff. The development of a methodology is important as this allows for a clear and logically repeatable framework for the valuation and the building of a business case. At the heart of the methodology is the need to prioritise assessment in order to optimise on both the return and the risks of using the City’s natural resources. This chapter is organised as follows: in section 3.2 the overall approach to methodology development is discussed, including main definitions used and an overview of EGS and beneficiaries in the City. Section 3.3 reports on key considerations in the development of a methodology to value the natural and environmental resources of the City of Cape Town. In section 3.4 a six-step valuation methodology is proposed and in section 3.5 this methodology is applied to a City-specific case study. Section 3.6 reports on how EGS were prioritised for further valuation in support of the business case and section 3.7 gives the conclusion. 57 3.2 Approach to methodology development 3.2.1 Definition of terms In order develop the methodology, it is important to distinguish between two related concepts, namely natural assets and ecosystem goods and services (EGS). Natural assets are the stocks of environmental resources owned by the City (the City’s natural capital). Ecosystem goods and services (EGS) are the flows of benefits derived from these assets (the interest or services generated by the natural capital). In order to clarify these concepts an analogy of a bank account may be used. The amount of money deposited by the account holder is the asset component, while the interest earned on the account is income and, therefore, a flow value. If the asset value of the money deposited is withdrawn, or in other words, the capital is spent, the interest earnings are lost. So too with natural capital, if the stock of natural assets are destroyed, the flow of ecosystem goods and services are also forfeited. Ecosystem goods and services are categorised in section 3.2.2. 3.2.2 Categorising and listing ecosystem goods and services The valuation exercise should begin with the consideration of a comprehensive list of EGS in order to ensure that the multi-faceted nature of the environment is captured and no EGS are overlooked. Before continuing with a methodology, it is important to categorise and develop a comprehensive list of EGS. The consultation process with City line functions yielded an exhaustive list of the EGS which were reconciled with the international literature on EGS to generate an EGS list for the City. At a conceptual level, this list is based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) framework which was chosen because of its international acceptance and logical nature. In addition, this framework can be reconciled with resource economics frameworks such as the Total Economic Value (TEV) framework. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) distinguishes among four categories of goods and services: • Supporting services are those services necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services, such as soil formation, photosynthesis, primary production, nutrient cycling and water cycling. These are intermediate services which form the basis for provisioning, regulating and cultural services and, as such, are seldom valued separately. • Provisioning services relate to the products derived from ecosystems, including food, fiber and fuel, genetic resources, medicines and pharmaceuticals. • Regulating services include benefits derived from the regulation of ecosystem processes, such as air quality regulation, climate regulation, water regulation, erosion regulation, disease regulation, pest regulation and natural hazard regulation. • Cultural services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems such as reflection, recreation, inspiration and aesthetic enjoyment. It includes cultural diversity and educational values. 58 In terms of the TEV framework, provisioning services largely fall within the direct use category, regulating services are mainly indirect use values, and cultural services comprise both a direct use component for values such as recreation and an existence value component for the remainder. Table 3.1 presents the EGS list for the City of Cape Town and shows how intermediate supporting services, such as primary production systems and ecological cycles, support or contribute to the generation of regulating, provisioning and cultural services. These three categories of EGS are then used by beneficiaries and, therefore, have value. Table 3.1: Categories of ecosystem goods and services Ecosystem goods and services Water regulation (flows, etc.) Natural hazard regualtion (floods, etc.) Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation Erosion regulation Regulating Pollination Disease regulation Pest regulation Climate regulation – local (air quality) Climate regulation – global Space for biota to live and reproduce (refugia) Fresh water provision Fuelwood provision Supporting services Photosynthesis Soil formation Primary production Nutrient cycling Water cycling Building materials provision (wood, sand, etc.) Wild flowers for harvesting Provisioning Provision of plant and animal material for medicines and biochemicals Provision of materials for crafts, fashion (e.g. shells) Fish and marine resources Genetic resources with potential pharmaceutical and other biochemical uses Small-scale urban farming Recreation and tourism Provision of inspirational beauty Aesthetic values and sense of place Cultural (information) Educational uses (e.g. school excursions, scientific research) Use in cultural and artistic practices and ceremonies Use in religion practices and ceremonies Use in productions (film and events), advertising and publications 59 3.2.3 Beneficiaries or users The economic value of EGS is determined by people’s active and passive use of these goods and services. A number of different user categories are distinguished. In this study the user categories are identified through a synthesis of the beneficiary categories identified in the international review chapter and information derived from the consultative process. The user groups identified during the consultative process (see Chapter 2) are given in Table 3.2. Table 3.2: User groups identified during the consultative process Categories Types (examples) Notes Tourist groups: Interviewees explained that Cape Town is a favoured tourist destination partly as a result of its natural environment. International tourists National tourists Local tourists Data and levies related to tourism are available at nature reserves, tourism organisations, city parks Recreation groups: Interviewees noted that the Cape Town environment offers space for a wide variety of recreational activities. Sailors, surfers, rowers Horse riding Walkers, cyclists, hikers Sports A number of the organised recreational groups keep data pertaining to their numbers. These include sailing clubs, etc. Harvest groups: The activity of harvesting natural resources and other resources is a limited activity. Wild plant harvesting Urban agriculture Gathering fuelwood Information and cultural groups: The natural environment provides a space of learning and human development. School excursions Scientific research History enthusiast Religious experience Book writers The nature reserves have data related to school excursions, gate fees, etc. Industry groups: These are business activities which make use of the City’s natural environment. Film and events industry Shipping industry Tourism industry Manufacturing and construction Advertising industry Craft makers The City of Cape Town’s economic information group has industry specific information/data that can be accessed. Residential groups: Households Households derive a variety of benefits (properties) from the natural environment. This is the protection from floods and natural drainage provided by the environment. In order to choose appropriate user categories, high-level distinctions were first made between ‘local users’ and ‘regional, national and international users’. Among the local users, further distinctions were made among ‘residents’, ‘key commercial groups’ and ‘key public bodies’ and were sub-divided as follows: 60 Classified under ‘residents’ are: • Recreational and sporting groups • Harvesters, fishers and subsistence producers • Educational groups • Cultural and religious groups • Property owners • Low-income residents (to indicate particularly high levels of dependency) Classified under ‘key commercial groups’ are: • Tourism and recreation • Film, advertising and events • Arts and crafts • Real estate • Construction and manufacturing • Urban agriculture • Fishing (including shellfish) Classified under ‘key public bodies’ are: • Economic development • Health and welfare • Disaster management • Water • Waste • Conservation bodies (e.g. SANParks and CapeNature). This framework has been utilised by a number of other important international studies. For example, Eftec (2006) differentiates between individual users, commercial entities and public sector groups. Costanza (2008) classifies 17 ecosystem services based on their spatial characteristics. Most significantly, however, is that this classification is based on the user groups identified as aspects being relevant to the City line functions. 3.3 Key considerations in methodology development The focus of the overall project is to influence budget allocations by developing focused economic arguments for investing, maintaining and expanding the City’s natural assets. It is neither practical nor desirable to value all goods and services generated by natural assets in the City, necessitating a logical and replicable methodology for prioritising natural assets for valuation. Through the study process and consultations, it became apparent that the methodology needs to address the following key consideration or needs for it to be effective: 61 • There is a clear need for an initial broad scoping and comprehensive listing of the City’s natural assets and flows from these assets. This means that a comprehensive understanding of the categories, quantity and quality of (a) natural assets and (b) ecosystem goods and services flowing from these assets, is gained before certain EGS flows are prioritised. For example, the value of the natural environment lies not only in tangibles such as green open spaces and nature reserves, but also in intangibles such as improved quality of life, enhanced property values, the value of beautiful streets and the value of certain natural icons. Furthermore, in a developing country context, the importance of the environment in meeting certain needs of people who do not receive high levels of utility services or infrastructure need to be explicitly acknowledged and managed for. Another example is that the accessibility of existing natural assets and the expansion of green space for people with low incomes are likely to be important objectives as these areas, when managed well, provide benefits that can improve wellbeing. The maintenance of these areas also provides direct employment benefitting many more indirectly. Overall, such a comprehensive approach would, to some extent, militate against strategic behaviour to maximise partially focused budgets within City structures and also leave sufficient scope for changing priorities over time. Therefore, as a first consideration, the methodology needs to be as comprehensive as possible in mapping the natural assets and EGS nexus and not be limited by existing structures and functions within the City. • It is equally important to be able to focus on key EGS that are particularly beneficial and thus worthy of prioritisation. Following a consultative process with a group of line function managers and senior staff as well as an international literature review, it is clear that a rich and diverse set of ecosystem goods and services support the socio-economic wellbeing of City inhabitants, as expected. These goods and services benefit a large number and a diverse range of beneficiaries. This information itself can be used to raise awareness and educate people on the wide range of benefits provided by sufficiently large and well-maintained natural assets. A key issue for the purpose of this project was where to focus valuation and financial– economic modelling efforts and to develop an argument based on targeted and relevant data and information (see UNDP/UNEP 2008). For example, given the focus on making a business case for environmental management, it is advised to first focus on the tangible, direct benefits of maintaining and expanding natural assets, as well as the goods and services that may flow from these assets, before attempting to value other intangibles and indirect benefits. An example of such intangibles is the close proximity of a natural and agricultural landscape in Constantia to an urban centre. These intangible values are likely to be reflected in property prices and in the willingness of visitors to travel to the area, but would require extensive valuation work and use techniques that, although correct and credible in the literature, increases the risk of not being accepted in the development of a higher-level business case for the environment. This does not mean that no risks should be 62 accepted but raises the issue to search for those assets where highest returns in terms of focused efforts can be achieved at lowest risks. • It is important to differentiate between an economic valuation technique and an economic valuation methodology. It is well-known that economic valuation techniques cannot be applied indiscreetly to every situation. Every case would have a unique problem statement and the methodology need to be broad enough to fit different types of problems. Some techniques are more suitable for certain goods and services than others. It is, therefore, crucial that City decision-makers receive not only a set of valuation techniques but also a complete methodology on how to approach economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services. A methodology can best be described as “a system of methods”. • The link between specific natural assets and the specific flow of ecosystem goods and services needs to be defined. According to the OECD (2005), natural assets consist of biological assets (produced or wild), land and water areas with their ecosystems, subsoil assets and air. This is, however, not the way cities have categorised their functions (both organisationally and financially) and, therefore, natural assets can be – within this context – better categorised in terms of an overlap with existing organisational structures: natural areas and reserves, parks, sports grounds, agricultural and vacant land, watercourses, wetlands and dams, the nearshore environment, and the atmosphere. Sub-soil assets are acknowledged as assets, but the City does not have any direct jurisdiction over these. What is important is that the flow of EGS from each of these assets is specifically defined to better facilitate choices on the relative importance of and focus on such assets when constructing an economic argument for investment in natural assets. It is further important to recognise that the set of natural assets, individually and jointly, may form part of an urban ecology of one or more larger ecosystems. A particular natural asset may for instance be a corridor for species movement between feeding and breeding habitats. • The links between different EGS and beneficiaries need to be clearly defined in order to understand which EGS are of value to whom. This information can then be used to prioritise and target EGS for further assessment. The number of beneficiaries, as well as estimates on the value for each of the ecosystem goods and services to these beneficiaries, determine what the highest ranked values are likely to be. For this project, the categorisation of users was informed by consulting line managers in the City. Although such categories may be updated over time, the approach provides a robust way of prioritising those specific ecosystem goods and services that are most likely to be of high value to all or certain inhabitants of and visitors to the City. Including aspects of value from a local beneficiary perspective is not always applied. In a high-level case study on the economic value of open spaces in Durban, users were not explicitly categorised as estimated values of EGS were 63 transferred from other international studies and applied on a per hectare basis (Mander 2009). In the context of this project where specific arguments on the value of natural assets to socio-economic wellbeing need to be formulated and used to support budget applications, an approach that ignores the value that local beneficiaries attach to ecosystem goods and services is not appropriate. • The importance of EGS to socio-economic development needs to be clear. Budget allocations are informed by the strategic objectives of the City’s Integrated Development Plan (IDP) which, at this stage, has no specific high-level allocation to any specific environmental category. EGS need to be ranked according to their impact on the IDP strategic focus areas. Where key EGS are identified but not acknowledged in the IDP, a separate argument needs to be developed for the inclusion of these EGS in further planning updates. • In order to better understand the chances of successful interventions, the City’s ability to influence the value of EGS through management and their environmental mandate should be key considerations when allocating resources. Some natural assets and flows may be almost completely under the control of the City, others may be shared with other institutions and groups, while still others may fall completely outside the control of the City. The assets and flows completely outside the control of the City are not important when motivating for an increased allocation of financial resources. It must be noted that the City may still be responsible for enforcement of regulations or inputs according to NEMA regulations on natural assets that are not directly within the City’s control. • As ecosystems may or may not be close to thresholds and can be subject to many different types of natural and anthropogenic pressures, EGS need to be screened on the basis of ecological and socio-economic risks. Specific attention need to be paid to expected changes over time the impacts this may have on natural assets and therefore on the sustained flow of EGS. If a particular flow of EGS benefits a large proportion of the population and it is at risk of being lost or altered in a fundamental way in future, it would need to receive urgent attention. Risk assessment needs to take place in some form or another whether in a very detailed scientific and/or modelling way or as part of a good governance process. One example is two case studies in Saldana and Richard’s Bay respectively, which placed a comparative risk assessment at the heart of its approach (Crafford 2009). Risk descriptions, together with a systems analysis and complemented by a quantitative or qualitative analysis of scientific studies elsewhere (but relevant to these Bays) provided the production functions employed to simulate changes in the level and quality of EGS. The comparative risk assessment (CRA) discussed in these case studies is an example of how to prioritise EGS based on the risk of different types of hazards (e.g. harmful algal blooms, invasive organisms, shock 64 wave effects of blasting, habitat loss due to dredging and land reclamation, oil pollution, and disposal of saline wastewater) on the continued flow of EGS. 3.4 The six-step valuation methodology Based on the key considerations discussed in the previous sections, a methodology was developed according to the following six steps: Figure 3.1: Six-step valuation methodology More detail on each step is provided in the following sections. 65 3.4.1 Assess the relative importance of different natural assets for the generation of EGS The natural assets of the City can be divided into a number of different categories which, in turn, yield different types and levels of EGS. A basic understanding of the relationships between natural assets and EGS flows is needed in order to appreciate which ones are important in the generation of different EGS. This information can then be used to assist in further prioritising EGS for assessment. It can also contribute to making the necessary links between the management of key assets and EGS outcomes. Table 3.3 outlines the broad categories of natural assets used to categorise the sources of EGS. The three basic categories of biota (fauna and flora) and soils, the water environment and the atmosphere provide the first level of basic categorisation. Biota (fauna and flora) and soils are then divided into natural areas and reserves, municipal parks, sports grounds, agricultural lands and vacant land. Within the water environment category it is useful to distinguish between watercourses, wetlands and dams (aquatic environments), and the near-shore coast (marine environments). Table 3.3: Natural asset categories of ecosystem goods and services Relative importance of natural assets as sources of EGS Biota (fauna and flora) and soils Natural areas & reserves Municipal parks Sports grounds Water environment Agricultural lands Vacant land Water courses, wetlands and dams Nearshore coast Atmosphere 3.4.2 Estimate the importance of EGS to users or beneficiaries The value of ecosystem goods and services is determined by people’s active and passive use thereof. It is, therefore, critical to consider who the users or beneficiaries of EGS are, and the relative importance of these EGS to different users. This is best done using a matrix of users against EGS categories (as presented in Table 3.4). 66 Table 3.4: Matrix of beneficiaries plotted against EGS category Ecosystem goods and services (EGS) categories Beneficiaries/ users Primary local beneficiaries/users and relative importance of EGS to them Residents Key commercial enterprises R H, E C P L T F, A R C U F & F d & & A & E& A S & R R & C M S E Reg Nat Key public bodies Ec H D W & M & W W S & C N Water Natural hazard Water and waste Erosion Regulating Pollination Disease Pest Supporting services Photosynthesis Soil formation Primary production Nutrient cycling Water cycling Air quality Climate Refugia Fresh water Fuel Building materials Wild flowers Provisioning Medicine Ornamental Fish and marine Genetic Urban agric Recreation and tourism Inspirational Cultural (information) Aesthetic Educational Heritage Religious Media Key: R&S = Recreational and sporting groups; H,F&S = Harvesters, fishers and subsistence producers; Ed = Educational groups; C&R = Cultural and religious groups; P = Property owners; L = low income groups; T&R = Tourism & recreation; F,A&E = Film, advertising and events; A&C = Arts and crafts; RE = Real estate; C&M = Construction and manufacturing; UA = Urban agriculture; F = Fishing (including shellfish); Ec = Economic development; H&W = Health and welfare; DM = Disaster management; W&W = Water and Waste; S&CN = SANParks & CapeNature 67 Int For any given EGS, the number of users and estimates of the value of the EGS to those users are critical considerations. These will determine the anticipated level of importance of EGS in absolute terms and relative to other services which, in turn, should guide the focus of valuation work. Such a process of prioritisation can be run relatively easy on a high level involving experts, managers and/or beneficiaries from the system. Section 3.6 presents the result of a workshop held with a group of line function managers and senior staff in this regard. It should be kept in mind that different lists of EGS and categorisations of users can be used. In this case both EGS and user groups were identified by consulting City line managers and categorised by the project team. Although such lists and categories may be updated over time, the approach provides a robust way of prioritising those specific ecosystem goods and services that are most likely to be of high value. 3.4.3 Establish links between EGS and development objectives Although awareness is growing with regard to the broad links between natural assets and economic development outcomes, there is a need to better understand and spell out these links when considering the value of natural assets. In this regard, the Integrated Development Plan (IDP) is recognised as the key development plan for the City. This plan can be viewed as a strategic guide with regard to development effort and resource allocation. According to the City’s latest 5-year IDP, the following eight strategic focus areas have been identified (City of Cape Town 2009): 1. Shared economic growth and development 2. Sustainable urban infrastructure and services 3. Energy efficiency for a sustainable future 4. Public transport systems 5. Integrated human settlements 6. Safety and security 7. Health, social and human capital development 8. Good governance and regulatory reform These strategic areas are necessarily broad in order to be comprehensive. From the perspective of the contribution of EGS to these focus areas, it is likely that the greatest emphasis will fall on the following: Shared economic growth and development, Sustainable urban infrastructure and services, Integrated human settlements, and Health, social and human capital development. The City faces several specific ecological challenges which have been acknowledged in the earlier IDP of 2006/7 (see Box 3.1). Within the Environmental Resource Management Department (ERMD) strategies have been developed or are being developed for the following: • Energy and climate change 68 • • • • • Biodiversity Coastal zone management Environmental education, training and awareness Air quality management Integrated waste management Box 3.1: Ecological challenges in the City of Cape Town Cape Town is located in a highly sensitive and vulnerable ecosystem. The environment is one of the strongest assets driving tourism. Rising levels of pollution threaten the river system and there are high levels of air pollution. The Cape Floral Kingdom has almost 9 000 different plant species and many animal species. Cape Town is situated in the heart of the Cape Floral Kingdom (the smallest and richest of the world’s six plant kingdoms), making Cape Town an area of global importance, otherwise known as a global “hotspot” of biodiversity. In fact, Cape Town is known internationally as a global biodiversity hotspot without parallel. More importantly, lots of species occur in Cape Town and nowhere else on earth. Cape Town has the dubious distinction of also being one of the earth’s mega-disaster areas – those areas that have already or are on the verge of losing a significant part of their biodiversity. The extinction rates in Cape Town are the highest for any metropole in the world. Not only is Cape Town rich in plant biodiversity, but also in animal biodiversity. Added to this, Cape Town is surrounded by a unique and diverse marine environment, which supports many different marine plants and animals such as abalone, the southern right whale and great white shark. The link to tourism should be emphasised. However, the point that the environment is Cape Town’s greatest asset, not just from a tourism perspective, but it is our life support system, also needs to be made. Balancing this with the social constraints is a huge challenge. Conservation of the natural environment is not a luxury but a necessity as the natural environment provides us with basic needs such as food, clean water, storm water and flood attenuation service, and assists with decreasing air pollution and many other services. Everyone has the basic right to a clean, safe and healthy environment. It is vital that the City ensures that it is sustainable. Source: City of Cape Town (2007) It is proposed that the EGS (as ranked in Table 3.1) are assessed according to their impact on the IDP strategic focus areas and associated specific objectives as relevant to the ERMD. Where key EGS are identified that are not acknowledged in the IDP, separate arguments need to be developed for inclusion in further planning updates. The City is currently busy with a more specific City Development Strategy (CDS) and the EGS will need to be assessed according to expected impacts on strategic objectives defined here as well in future. 3.4.4 Assess the City’s ability to influence the value of EGS through management The previous steps in the methodology do not make a distinction between natural assets and EGS flows on the basis of their ownership status or the level of control that the City has over the EGS. This is, however, an important factor as some assets and flows may i) be almost completely under the control of the City, ii) be shared with other institutions and groups, or iii) fall completely outside of the City’s control. The assets and flows completely 69 outside of the City’s control will generally be less important when motivating for an increased allocation of financial resources. Ranking or screening EGS according to the the City’s ability to maintain or expand natural assets and the flow of ecosystem goods and services is thus an important step before devoting resources to the valuation of EGS or developing a business case. The process of ranking can relatively easily be executed with inputs from City line function managers and senior staff who understand the nature of boundaries and have experience with regard to levels of control within the given mandates. Legal obligations are also relevant here. In certain instances, the City’s management of natural assets can be viewed as a response to its legal obligations. For example, the rehabilitation and management of wetland areas can be motivated by a desire to avoid liability that may stem from flood events. This kind of legally-driven motivation generally adds to motivations built on economic values and other factors. The City has a well-defined mandate on service delivery, but its’ environmental mandate is still unclear. The City is currently reviewing its environmental mandate which will most probably have an influence on where funds will be allocated and what organisations the City will partner with in the fulfillment of their mandate. 3.4.5 Assess the ability of ecosystems to yield a sustainable flow of EGS and prioritise them according to risks Experience shows that one cannot necessarily rely on natural assets to provide sustained flows of EGS and the economic values associated with them. Moreover, certain environments are likely to be more vulnerable to habitat loss and degradation implying that they face greater ecological risks. These are the environments where thresholds are important and exceeding these would have particularly onerous consequences in both ecological and socio-economic terms. For example, if a river system experiences effective ecological collapse due to pollution, species can be lost and health hazards can emerge, with associated ecological and socio-economic costs. The natural assets that could be on the brink of disaster and those that have a higher impact need to be given priority in assessment. Ranking or screening EGS according to the level of ecological and socio-economic risks they face is, therefore, an important step before devoting resources to valuation. As with the other steps, the process of assessing which assets may be most vulnerable or scarce can relatively easily be executed with inputs from City line function managers and senior staff who understand the ecological functioning of the natural assets within the City. 3.4.6 Apply valuation techniques to selected case studies Once the key EGS have been prioritised using the preceding steps, further assessment using economic valuation techniques can be done. Such valuation studies should focus not only on the benefits of preserving or maintaining natural assets and flows, but also on the 70 reduced costs (or savings) of mitigation flowing from a more pro-active management of the City’s natural assets and EGS. For example, if a wetland is not properly managed and loses its functions, the costs of alternative technologies to (partially) substitute such functions can be substantial. It must further be noted that the opportunity cost of losing natural assets and flows may appear incrementally small at first, but will generally increase exponentially with increased scarcity. Although economic valuation techniques have been described and discussed in detail in Phase one of the project, a brief overview is given in the following sections focused on appropriate technique choice and application. 3.4.6.1 Techniques commonly used for valuation Valuation techniques can be divided into demand curve approaches and non-demand curve approaches (see Figure 3.2). Demand curve approaches are welfare measures in the sense that the implications of changes in environmental quality or attributes on society can be assessed. In addition, values are derived rather than prices. Non-demand curve approaches are easier to estimate than demand curve approaches, and are generally more appropriate when there are not large disparities between price and value. Figure 3.2: Monetary valuation techniques and economic welfare 71 3.4.6.2 Practical considerations when choosing a valuation technique Aside from the restrictions of the available adequate budget, there are two important considerations when selecting a valuation technique. The first relates to the availability of data and the selection of an appropriate framework. The second relates to which is the most appropriate technique considering the data and in a given context. Regarding the first consideration, a sound approach is to first categorise values based on the nature and availability of prices (Blignaut & Lumby 2004). The following five categories are distinguished: market prices, shadow prices, direct proxies, indirect proxies, or no proxies at all. Figure 3.3 provides a framework for selecting an appropriate valuation technique based on these categories. Figure 3.3: Choosing a valuation technique Source: Based on Blignaut and Lumby (2004). The options are as follows: • If efficient market prices are available, change in productivity techniques are preferable. • If non-distorted (efficient) market prices are not available, surrogate market approaches (such as the travel cost and hedonic pricing methods) are used. 72 • • • When market prices are not available but direct (efficient) proxies are, a variety of assumed preference techniques (such as replacement cost, cost of illness, opportunity cost or dose response methods) or other benefit transfer methods (BMTs) are applicable. When indirect proxies are available, revealed preference methods (such as the travel cost and hedonic pricing methods) are appropriate. Finally, if no market prices or proxies are available, non-market methods (such as contingent valuation or choice modelling approaches) may be used. It should be noted that it is often necessary to use a combination of valuation techniques rather than a single technique to value environmental benefits. Some techniques lend themselves more readily for use in combination with other techniques. Once a technique is selected based on the availability of data, and issues of compatibility with other techniques are investigated, a number of failsafe principles need to be applied. Table 3.5 outlines the common avoidable pitfalls encountered in valuation. For example, a technique may be compatible with other techniques, but if they value the same thing in different ways issues such as double counting may be a factor. Furthermore, while a technique might be easy to apply in practice, the results of certain valuation studies may not be readily transferable to a local context. The given context of a study is important for all valuation studies. In addition to these principles, it might also be appropriate, in certain instances, to control for income differentials between groups. Otherwise it suggests that poorer people value the environment less, which is clearly not an accurate interpretation. Table 3.5: Avoiding common pitfalls in valuation Use net benefits, not gross Failing to consider the costs involved in using resources (the cost of harvesting benefits products, for example, or the cost of piping water from its source to the user) results in an over-estimate of the value of ecosystem services. Include opportunity costs The cost of an action is not limited to the out-of-pocket costs involved in implementing it. It also includes the opportunity costs resulting from the foregone benefits of alternative actions (or inaction). Omitting opportunity costs makes actions seem much more attractive than they really are. Do not use replacement costs … unless you can demonstrate (i) that the replacement service is equivalent in quality and magnitude to the ecosystem service being valued, (ii) that the replacement is the least-cost way of replacing the service, and (iii) that people would actually be willing to pay the replacement cost to obtain the service. Do not use benefits transfer … unless the context of the original valuation is extremely similar to the context you are interested in. Even then, proceed with caution. However, it is a good idea to compare the results with those obtained elsewhere. Do not use value estimates based on small changes in service availability to assess the consequences of large changes in service availability Economic value estimates are not independent of the scale of the analysis. Value estimates are almost always made for small (‘marginal’) changes in service availability and should not be used when contemplating large changes. 73 Be careful about double counting Many valuation techniques measure the same thing in different ways. For example, the value of clean water might be measured by the avoided health care costs or by a survey of consumer WTP for clean water. But consumer WTP for clean water is due (at least in part) to their desire not to fall sick, so these two results should not be added together. If they are, the value of clean water will be over-estimated. Do not include global benefits when the analysis is from a national perspective More specifically, only consider benefits (or costs) that affect the group from whose perspective the analysis is done. Including benefits which are primarily global in nature in an analysis undertaken from a national perspective is a particularly common form for this mistake, and results in an over-estimate of the benefits to the country. Adjust for price distortions … when conducting the analysis from the perspective of society as a whole, but not when conducting the analysis from the perspective of an individual group. Avoid spurious precision Most estimates are, by necessity, approximate. Do not simply paste the result in the spreadsheet, with its three decimal points, into the report: round the result appropriately. When there is substantial uncertainty, report the results as ranges. Submit results to sanity checks Are the results consistent with other results? Are they reasonable in light of the context? Extraordinary results are not necessarily wrong, but must be checked carefully. Extraordinary results require extraordinary proof. Source: Pagiola et al. (2004). 3.5 Case study: Zandvlei The previous sections outlined the theoretical and conceptual aspects of the methodology. In order to make it more real, we now turn to a hypothetical application of the methodology using an existing valuation study. A valuation study done for the Zandvlei area as part of a wider City-funded study on the value of open space areas (see Turpie et al. 2001) was chosen as the ideal case study. This case study offers the chance to consider a number of benefit streams from a welldefined natural asset, using a variety of valuation techniques. It also illustrates a number of the key ways in which City management can and does influence values and the welfare outcomes associated with these values. Zandvlei is situated in the south peninsula and is bordered by Lakeside, Muizenberg and Marina Da Gama. It’s a natural open water wetland used for a number of recreational activities such as canoeing, sailing and windsurfing. Some of its shores in Lakeside and Muizenberg are lawned parkland, equipped in places with braai and picnic spots, sports fields and also a boating clubhouse. The portion of Lakeside/Muizenberg North between the vlei and the railway line is similar to the portion of Muizenberg that borders it on the south. Residential housing in both these areas offers easy access to the water and, in some cases, a view over it. Marina Da Gama on the eastern shores also offers these same benefits, but is distinct in having been designed as a marina. Properties bordering on the water have direct private access to it and often feature small jetties. 74 In the sections that follow, Zandvlei is assessed using the six-step methodology outlined in the previous sections and drawing upon Turpie et al. (2001). 3.5.1 Assess the relative importance of different natural assets for the generation of EGS In the case of Zandvlei, consideration of the relative importance of the source environment(s) is made simpler as the primary natural assets that provides the bulk of EGS at Zandvlei is the wetland area. However, the site also contains the following areas that provide important EGS: • The municipal park with lawns, sport facilities and braai areas provide significant amenity • Non-aquatic natural vegetation areas • Coastal area where the vlei enters the sea at Muizenberg To understand values at Zandvlei it is thus important to appreciate the different elements that these areas bring to the whole. 3.5.2 Estimate the importance of EGS to users/beneficiaries Using the overall list of EGS one can identify important EGS in the area. Note that this process should include a field trip to areas such as Zandvlei for ground truthing. In the case of Zandvlei, the focus of overall values falls on regulating and cultural services that are provided at a local level (see Table 3.6). Although provisioning services are also present in the form of harvesting of flowers and fishing they are not as prominent by comparison. Table 3.6: Ecosystem goods and services provided by Zandvlei Ecosystem services Water regulation Regulating Natural hazard regulation (floods, etc.) Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation Space for biota to live and reproduce (refugia) Recreation and tourism Provision of inspirational beauty Aesthetic values and sense of place Cultural (information) Educational issues (e.g. school excursions, scientific research) Use in cultural and artistic practices and ceremonies Use in religious practices and ceremonies Use in productions (film and events), advertising and publications Wild flowers for harvesting Provisioning Provision of materials for craft, fashion (e.g. shells) Fish and marine resources 75 The key focus regarding beneficiaries falls on benefits to the City of Cape Town’s residents. Under residents, the following categories are key users of the vlei, in likely order of importance: • Recreational and sporting groups • Property owners • Educational groups • Cultural and religious groups • Harvesters, fishers and subsistence producers Note that, although the vlei is in a middle- to higher-income area, it is well-used by residents from nearby lower-income areas who have limited easy access to similar facilities. Under key commercial groups, the following groups benefit from EGS at the vlei, in likely order of importance: • Tourism and recreation with an emphasis on local recreational use (as opposed to tourism from outside of the City of Cape Town). • The real estate industry benefits from the enhancement of property values. • The fishing industry is supported by the nursery function performed by the vlei. • The film, advertising and events industry benefits from the use of the vlei as a venue. Key public bodies that benefit include the following: • Health and welfare benefits from the facilitation and encouragement of a healthy outdoor lifestyle. • Disaster management benefits from the maintenance of water flows in order to minimise floods. • Water and waste benefits from the water quality control and waste assimilation function provided by the vlei. From the above it is clear that the vlei creates a relatively large variety of value streams to various users. Focusing on these users provides a departure point for the valuation of the vlei. 3.5.3 Establish links between EGS and development objectives Regarding the broad guidance provided by the City IDP, one can argue that the EGS provided at Zandvlei impact most positively on the following IDP focus areas: • Health, social and human capital development • Sustainable urban infrastructure and services Social and human capital development benefits are clearly associated with the various recreational, sporting, educational and cultural uses of the vlei. The vlei can also be viewed as ‘ecological infrastructure’ providing virtually free services when functioning properly that would be costly to provide in its absence. 76 More tenuous, but nevertheless valid, links with the following focus areas can also be found: • Shared economic growth and development • Integrated human settlements 3.5.4 Assess the City’s ability to influence the value of EGS through management Zandvlei is already a relatively intensively managed area when compared to other vleis in and around the City of Cape Town. Lawned areas around the park, sporting areas and braai/picnic areas particularly are actively managed and relatively well maintained. In addition, water flows both into the vlei and out of it into the sea have been manipulated and control is exercised over them. At an overall level, it thus stands to reason that the City has a relatively high ability to influence the state and value of this area. One caveat in this regard is that control over flows into the vlei is probably the area where the City has to deal with the highest levels of unpredictability. 3.5.5 Assess the ability of ecosystems to yield a sustainable flow of EGS With continued adequate City management, the park, braai and sporting areas should yield a sustainable flow of EGS. In addition, assistance in management should be forthcoming from boat clubs and residents with an interest in keeping the area maintained. With regard to risks, water quality probably presents the most difficulty to City management as it is not as easy to control by comparison to other EGS flows in the area. Note that the security risk is currently not particularly high relative to other open space areas in the City. However, it remains a risk that leads to decreased value flows and presents particularly difficult management challenges. 3.5.6 Applying valuation techniques 3.5.6.1 Choosing valuation techniques In order to choose appropriate valuation techniques one can draw up a table that links EGS flows to appropriate valuation techniques. Table 3.7 presents the results of this exercise for Zandvlei. It shows that there are a number of valuation possibilities and that prioritisation is required. The 2001 study of this area came to the conclusion that the replacement cost technique was best suited for estimating the value of regulating services provided by the vlei and that the hedonic pricing, travel cost and contingent valuation techniques were best suited for estimating cultural services values. Provisioning services were not measured mainly because their magnitude relative to regulating and cultural services was relatively small. If these were to be estimated, harvesting value could be measured simply by estimating the market value of harvested goods such as reeds and flowers. Benefits to fish 77 production would probably be more complex as it would require the drawing of clear links between the functioning of the vlei and fish production. Table 3.7: Matching EGS to valuation techniques at Zandvlei Ecosystem services Water regulation Regulating Natural hazard regulation (floods, etc.) Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation Space for biota to live and reproduce (refugia) Valuation techniques Replacement cost, preventative costs, costs of disaster or system failure Recreation and tourism Provision of inspirational beauty Aesthetic values and sense of place Cultural (information) Educational issues (e.g. school excursions, scientific research) Use in cultural and artistic practices and ceremonies Travel cost, property price/hedonics. contingent valuation and choice experiments Use in religious practices and ceremonies Use in productions (film and events), advertising and publications Wild flowers for harvesting Provisioning Provision of materials for craft, fashion (e.g. shells) Fish and marine resources Effects on production, cost of alternative sources The following sections provide brief summaries of the valuation application and results taken from Turpie et al. (2001). All amounts are in the year 2000 rands. 3.5.6.2 Replacement cost technique Wetlands are widely recognised as particularly important providers of EGS per area and tend to ‘punch above their size’. Several of these services may save cities significant amounts in terms of infrastructural costs which they would have had to incur if the natural systems were not present. In Turpie et al. (2001), three replacement cost estimates were used for determining the equivalent functional value for selected wetlands, namely: • Estimation of the cost of constructing an artificial wetland • Estimation of the cost of providing the same level of water quality enhancement using a treatment plant • Estimation of the cost of providing for the identified flood storage capacity only, i.e. the construction of a detention pond providing flood storage For Zandvlei the replacement cost of a treatment plant was estimated at R180 million and the replacement cost of a flood storage capacity at R24 million illustrating the magnitude of the ‘free’ services provided. No estimate of the cost of constructing an artificial wetland was provided. 78 3.5.6.3 Hedonic pricing/property value technique The hedonic case study at Zandvlei differed from the norm in that it used both estate agent interviews and the more conventional statistical technique to generate value estimates. Its focus was on the estimation of the effects of the vlei and associated open space on properties in close proximity. For the statistical analysis, property sales data was sourced from Cape Property Services (including house prices and characteristics), distance to open space was measured using municipal maps and regressions were run using house characteristics and proximity to open space. The results of the statistical analysis compared well with those of the estate agent interviews. The former technique yielded total property price premiums associated with the vlei of R77 million for all houses, while that latter yielded an estimate of R87 million. 3.5.6.4 Travel cost technique The travel cost survey focused on recreational use value by treating travel cost as a surrogate for value. As such, the technique is less prone to bias than stated preference methods because it estimates the value of an amenity on the basis of the actual behaviour of users. The results of the survey indicated that the consumers' surplus ranged from R1 for visitors from further afield to R33 for visitors living adjacent to Zandvlei, averaging R15 per visitor. The estimated total consumers' surplus, and hence total recreational use value using this measure, was estimated at approximately R700 000 per year. Note that survey respondents felt that the source of this value was relatively equally spread between the nature reserve, park areas and open water area. 3.5.6.5 Contingent valuation techniques In the contingent valuation exercise, visitors were asked if they would pay a fee to make use of Zandvlei on the condition that they would be able to influence how this money was spent. Most (85%) respondents were willing to pay an entrance fee. Of those who were not willing to pay, some respondents voiced concern that payment might be a municipal proposal (i.e. not so hypothetical). The average willingness-to-pay was R6.40 per entry suggesting an overall willingness-to-pay, or recreational use value, of approximately R640 000 per year in 2000. This estimate was similar to that estimated using the travel cost technique. Note, however, that it focuses on recreational use and not other value streams such as option and existence value. 3.5.6.6 Discussion The Zandvlei case study shows that, as suspected, the vlei is a source of significant benefits for a wide variety of users. These values are summarised in Table 3.8. Note, from a technical perspective, that the property value, travel cost and contingent valuation techniques had areas of overlap that would need to be accounted for in an overall estimate of value. Although management issues are not summarised here, it should also be noted 79 that the case study found clear links between values and management, water quality and security levels. Table 3.8: Summary of value estimates for Zandvlei Valuation technique Value (2000) Annual value (2000) Property value technique R84 million +/- R6 million Travel cost R10 million R700 000 Contingent valuation R9 million R640 000 Replacement cost R24 million–R180 million R2 million–R15 million 3.6 Prioritising EGS in Cape Town using the methodology Prioritisation of EGS in the City was done during a participatory and facilitated setting with invited City line function managers and senior staff representing all functions related to ecosystem goods and services in the City. This included those involved in the management of environmental resources, parks, tourism, heritage, sports and recreation, wastewater, stormwater, solid waste and spatial planning; or the following City functions: • Strategy and Planning o Environmental Resource Management Department ƒ Biodiversity Management ƒ Policy and Strategy ƒ Heritage ƒ Environmental Management Systems o Spatial Planning • Community Development o Sports, Recreation and Amenities o City Parks • Economic and Social Development o Tourism • Utility Services o Water services ƒ Wastewater ƒ Stormwater management o Solid Waste services The conservation function was also represented by CapeNature’s business unit manager for the Cape Metro. The six-step methodology was formulated to act as a high-level guide to prioritise future valuation work and business case exercises. With this in mind it was applied in a workshop with the study team and key City line function managers and senior staff. 80 A participatory rapid appraisal approach was followed. Four focus groups were randomly identified with 4–6 people in each group. Participants were asked to identify and shortly motivate what, in their view, the most important linkages are between all identified EGS in the City and: • beneficiaries • the achievement of development objectives • the City’s environmental mandate and ability to influence and • ecological and socio-economic risks. The focus group discussions were limited to 15 minutes per topic after which focus groups reported back to others. The report back was summarised for the benefit of the entire group and used as an input to further off-line analysis and ranking. The collation of all inputs and subsequent discussions resulted in three broad categories of EGS or uses that should be prioritised and considered further: 1. Water quality and regulation of flows 2. Recreational use 3. Conservation of globally important biodiversity A more formal evaluation was done after the workshop whereby each group’s discussion points, as contained in the minutes of the meeting, were used to rank importance within each of the four discussion focus areas in a spreadsheet matrix. If two separate groups mentioned the same linkage, the relevant block scores a two, if three groups mention the same linkage the block scores a three, etc. This analysis did not reveal major differences with the summary presented at the end of the workshop, but revealed some important nuances. Table 3.9 contains a summary of EGS ranked according to higher, high, medium, and low importance relative to each other. The five services that were ranked with highest relative importance for valuation are the regulation of natural hazards, recreation and tourism, water purification and waste treatment/assimilation, space for biota, and aesthetic values and sense of place. Definitions are as follows: • Natural hazard regulation: Buffering ecosystems (e.g. reefs, kelp can reduce the impact of storms and large waves) • Recreation and Tourism: People often choose their sites based on the natural or cultivated characteristics of an area • Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation: Ecosystems can cause impurities but also help filter out and decompose organic wastes • Space for biota: Regulation of habitat and space • Aesthetic values and sense of place: Aesthetic values are reflected in support for parks, scenic drives and housing locations 81 Table 3.9: Relative importance of EGS based on perceptions of City line function managers and senior staff Higher High Medium Lower Natural hazard regulation Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation Climate regulation – local Climate regulation global (air quality) Recreation and Tourism Space for biota Small scale urban farming Fresh water provision Aesthetic values and sense of place Water regulation Building materials provision Fish and marine resources Provision of inspirational beauty Educational users Cultural and artistic practices Religious practices Erosion regulation Disease regulation Harvesting Materials for craft and fashion Use in productions, advertising and publications Note: Based on results of workshop with City representatives, 12 March 2009 The regulation of natural hazards and recreation and tourism attracted the highest scores as based on the workshop discussions. Regulation of natural hazards includes the importance of the environment to deal with stormwater, flooding and sea storms, and to buffer against or absorb disasters. Such ecosystem services may reduce risks to and costs of development. Ecosystem services can provide an important role in disaster risk management. If this is not managed properly it also poses a major risk to infrastructure and service delivery. Recreation and tourism services included comments on the importance of nature reserves, parks, natural and open spaces, and sport grounds for recreational activities (e.g. braai, picnic, birding, dog walking, sports, fishing) by City residents, as well as the importance of a sustained flow of EGS to tourism and recreational fishing as economic sectors in the City. Recreational services indirectly benefits health as well. Ecological risks include climatic changes and pollution. The environment’s purification of water and waste followed closely, as well as space for biota and aesthetic values/sense of place. It was clearly stated by participants that the 82 water purification function is important for downstream users in terms of recreational activities (such as wetlands and beaches) and human health. The continuation of the water purification function is also under severe pressure already due to excessive water pollution and resulting eutrophication. According to the workshop participants, the environment provides a further key function by providing space for biota. Fynbos areas have become very fragmented especially in low lying areas. Coastal dunes are under pressure. The maintenance of biodiversity can play an important role in enhancing human settlements and, when properly managed, can enhance safe public areas. Fire management, for instance, is directly linked to the management of fuel loads. It was mentioned that educational use of natural biota is an aspect that needs specific attention. Aesthetic values are gained through nature reserves and green areas, and are expected to create tangible amenity values in human settlements. Urban sprawl and coastal development, however, are major risks. 3.7 Conclusion A robust and tested methodology to value the natural assets of the City of Cape Town was developed and presented in this chapter. This methodology is based on a national and international literature review (as presented in Chapter 1), inputs from local resource economic experts, two independent external reviews and a participatory process with city line managers and senior staff (as presented in Chapter 2). The six generic steps followed to prepare a valuation study on EGS in a city context are: 1. Assess the relative importance of different natural assets for the generation of EGS 2. Estimate the importance of EGS to users/beneficiaries 3. Establish the links between EGS and development objectives 4. Assess the ability of the City to influence the value of EGS through management 5. Assess the ability of ecosystems to yield a sustainable flow of EGS and prioritise according to risks. 6. Apply valuation techniques to selected case studies The six-step valuation methodology was first tested against a local case study, before applying this to select key ecosystem goods and services for the City of Cape Town. City line managers and senior staff played a prominent role in selecting ecosystem goods and services for valuation. The five services that were ranked with highest relative importance for valuation are the regulation of natural hazards, recreation and tourism, water purification and waste treatment/assimilation, space for biota and aesthetic values and sense of place. 83 Chapter 4: Economic valuation Lead author: Hugo van Zyl Contributing authors: Martin de Wit Terence Jayiya Valerie Goiset Brian Mahumani 4.1 Introduction This chapter reports on the valuation case studies carried out for the prioritised EGSs in the following order: • Tourism value • Recreational value • Value of globally important biodiversity • Natural hazard regulation of fire, floods and storm surge • Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation • Aesthetic and sense of place related values focused on: o Enhanced health and wellbeing o Contribution to the Cape Town brand and an enhanced business environment o Benefits flowing to specific sectors: film and advertising o Property value enhancement Valuation techniques applied and the level of detail possible for each EGS varied. Outlines of the approaches followed are thus presented in each relevant section. Some services are relatively well understood and best valued at a city-wide scale. Other services lacked adequate data for average values across the City but could nevertheless be illustrated using case studies. Though valuation data is still limited, other valuation and environmental economic assessments conducted in Cape Town provided material for the valuation exercise. Appendix 4.1 lists the known valuation studies conducted in the City and provides summary information for each study on study objectives, natural assets and EGS valued, beneficiaries considered, references to development objectives and the City of Cape Town’s mandate, references to the City’s ability to influence value streams, references to ecological and socio-cultural risks, valuation methods applied, value estimates at the time of the study, and updated value estimates. 84 4.2 Tourism value of natural assets The national tourism industry has exceeded the growth of virtually all other sectors in the economy in the post-apartheid era. International visitor numbers to South Africa increased tenfold in the ten years post-1994 from 640 000 visitors to 6.5 million visitors in 2003. Most recent estimates were at 9.6 million international tourist arrivals in 2008 and it is not inconceivable that arrivals in 2010 will be double the number of ten years earlier in 2000 (Van Schalkwyk 2009). Its current economic impact and importance in the provincial and local economy have been extensively studied and monitored. One of the most comprehensive studies on this subject was the development of a tourism satellite account for the Western Cape in 2005 (see MPBS 2005). This work allowed for the analysis of the contribution of tourism to the subsectors that are supported by it (i.e. accommodation, restaurants, tours, etc.) and found that tourism makes up 5.9% of provincial GGP in direct terms and 14% of GGP in direct and indirect terms. In addition, approximately 150 000 direct jobs are supported by the industry. The contribution of Cape Town to these provincial averages is substantial given its prominence in the tourism economy of the Western Cape. While the current economic benefits from tourism are highly significant, Cape Town holds the promise and has the capacity to grow its tourism sector far further as global awareness of what it has to offer increases. However, maintaining gains and building on them into the future will only be achievable if the City actively invests in the management of tourism assets. The primary asset in this regard is the City’s unique natural environment. Of course there are a number of other aspects which contribute to the unique tourism package offered by Cape Town, but it is widely recognised (and verifiable when one considers tourist behaviour) that the City’s natural assets are the key attraction of tourists. 4.2.1 Measuring tourism values The tourism value of natural and other areas is commonly measured using the travel cost technique which is based on the assumption that the willingness of tourists to spend on travel to a given place reflects the value that they attached to it (see Chapter 1 for a more detailed explanation of this technique). This can then be supplemented by considering the entry fees paid by tourists at natural areas. In order to estimate the value of Cape Town’s natural assets from a tourism perspective, the following steps were thus followed: 1. Estimate the travel costs associated with all tourist trips that include Cape Town in their itinerary (i.e. the cost of transport). 2. Isolate the relative prominence or weight of Cape Town in the travel decision of tourists including Cape Town in their travel itineraries. 3. Isolate the relative prominence or weight of Cape Town’s natural assets in the travel decision of tourists coming to Cape Town. 4. Add entry fees paid by tourists to access natural areas to their travel costs. 85 The first step sets the travel cost ‘baseline’ for all trips that involved Cape Town. The second and third steps were then necessary to make the link between all travel costs and those that one can reasonably attribute to Cape Town and its natural assets in particular. The wealth of information and data that is kept on tourism made it feasible to generate relatively robust value estimates without using direct surveys. The nature of the valuation question and data, however, implies a certain level of uncertainty necessitating the use of a range of value figures. In order to estimate total travel costs for all tourist trips including Cape Town on their itinerary, the latest available visitor numbers for the Western Cape were first sourced and adjusted for normal tourism growth to generate current estimates for tourist numbers (1.8 million international tourists and 2.6 million domestic tourists). These Western Cape tourist numbers were then converted into Cape Town only estimates for tourist numbers using the estimates given in Table 4.1 for regions visited in the Western Cape which are based on the average results from four separate Cape Town Routes Unlimited (CTRU) visitor surveys in the 2006 and 2007 (see CTRU 2006; 2006a; 2006b; 2007). These surveys found that 93% of international visitors to the Western Cape visited Cape Town while 54% of domestic visitors did so. Table 4.1: Western Cape regions visited by tourists The portion of tourists visiting Cape Town for leisure or holiday purposes was then isolated as tourist here for business, visiting friends and relatives (VFR), conferences and other purposes were not directly relevant to the analysis. This was done using the estimates given in Table 4.2 as a guide which are based on the average results from the same four CTRU visitor surveys in 2006 and 2007 mentioned above. These surveys found that an average of 76% of international visitors and 65% of domestic visitors to the Western Cape and Cape Town cited leisure and holidays as the purpose of their visit. These percentages were adjusted downward to 70% and 60% respectively in order to better reflect the likely estimate for Cape Town specifically and in order to ensure conservatism. This totals an estimate of 2.16 million total annual leisure visitors to Cape Town. 86 Table 4.2: Tourist visit purposes in Cape Town and the Western Cape Total international and domestic leisure tourists to Cape Town were then split into their countries and provinces of origin based on survey data (CTRU 2008 for international tourists and CTRU 2006; 2006a; 2006b and 2007 for domestic tourists) and multiplied by their likely travel costs based on current averages (air travel for overseas tourists and air and land travel averages for southern African and domestic tourists). The results of this exercise (see Table 4.3) revealed that approximately R12 billion and R800 million was spent by international and domestic leisure tourists respectively in order to undertake trips that included Cape Town in their itineraries. 87 Table 4.3: Travel costs associated with trips including Cape Town in their itineraries After estimating the baseline of travel costs for trips including Cape Town, it was necessary to estimate the relative prominence or weight specifically of Cape Town in the travel decision of tourists including Cape Town in their travel itineraries. This was done in order to be able to ascribe a portion or percentage of travel costs (and therefore value) to Cape Town. Generating these percentage estimates was characterised by relatively high levels of uncertainty given the relatively complex nature of the question. Selected data augmented by reasoned arguments did, however, allow for a reasonable range of estimates. 88 The substantial power of the Cape Town brand in attracting tourists to South Africa is a key point of departure. In this regard, Cape Town is widely recognised as a must-see destination within Africa and one of the world’s must-see cities. This increases the likelihood of it being a key motivating factor when international tourists consider a trip to South Africa. Box 4.1 provides a summary of the numerous awards bestowed upon Cape Town. Box 4.1: • • • • • • • • Cape Town’s travel awards Leading Destination in Africa – World Tourism Awards 2005, 2006 & 20081 One of the World's Top 10 Cities – US Travel & Leisure 2005, 2006 & 2007 4th Top City in the World – Conde Nast Readers' Choice 2008 Favourite Foreign City – UK Telegraph 2004 & 2005 Best Travel Destination in Africa and the Middle East – US Travel & Leisure 2005 & 2008 3rd Best City In The World – US Travel And Leisure 2008 Best City in Africa and the Middle East – Conde Nast Readers' Choice 2005 & 2008 One of the "Places Of A Lifetime" – National Geographic Traveller, July 2008 With regard to the average number of attractions or areas that generally form part of a tourists’ motivation to visit South Africa there is no set rule as tastes and the decisionmaking processes of individuals differ. However, the average number of provinces visited by all international leisure tourists to South Africa was 1.83 in 2007 and this can act as a guide (SA Tourism 2008). Taking a relatively high average, every international visitor to Cape Town and the Western Cape will thus generally visit one other province in South Africa. Intuitively this makes it likely that most international tourists that include Cape Town in their itinerary would focus on a maximum of four key attractions (including Cape Town) as motivating factors to undertake their trips. Taking all of the above factors into account, it seems reasonable to ascribe to Cape Town between 15% and 35% (with a medium scenario of 25%) of the overall attraction package that motivates international tourist trips. In other words, the attraction of Cape Town makes up roughly a quarter of the reason behind undertaking the average trip that includes the City in its overall itinerary. Of course there will be a range of figures that will make up this average. For example, some tourists that come to Cape Town will spend almost all of their time in Cape Town while others will undertake their trip primarily in order to visits a game park and will place Cape Town further down on their ranking of motivating factors. For domestic tourists, these percentages have been assumed to be higher at between 40% and 60% primarily because domestic tourists have a significantly lower tendency to undertake the kinds of multi-destination trips that international tourists often undertake. This increases the likely prominence of Cape Town in their travel decisions. Table 4.4 presents the result of applying the above ranges to the total travel costs and shows that travel costs that can be ascribed to Cape Town will range from R2.2 billion to R4.7 billion with an average of R3.4 billion. 89 Table 4.4: Travel costs that can be associated with Cape Town 4.2.2 The role of Cape Town’s natural assets in tourism The final step in the travel cost valuation was to isolate the relative prominence or weight of Cape Town’s natural assets in the travel decision of tourists coming to Cape Town. The CTRU visitor surveys conducted in 2006 and 2007 (see CTRU 2006; 2006a; 2006b and 2007) included questions relating to tourists’ relative preferences for different activities and attractions of Cape Town and the Western Cape (i.e. the natural environment, cultural experiences, shopping, etc.). The results of the surveys can be used to infer a likely range of tourism values that can be reasonably associated with the City’s natural assets. With regard to actual behaviour, the surveys asked tourists about which activities they participated in while in Cape Town and the Western Cape. 1 Results showed that Eco and Nature was the most preferred activity theme out of the six options presented to tourists (i.e. Eco and Nature, Cultural and Heritage, Outdoor Active, Cosmopolitan Vibe, Gourmet Delights, and Body, Mind and Spirit). The smoothed averages per activity types presented in Figure 4.1 indicate that Eco and Nature activities had a relative importance of 44% for all the surveys. 1 The question asked was “Please indicate the activities you have participated in/will participate in during this trip/visit to the province?” 90 Figure 4.1: Relative importance of activities Source: adapted from CTRU 2006, 2006a, 2006b and 2007 The CTRU surveys also asked tourists to indicate which types of scenery they preferred from a list of 7 possible scenery types. 2 The smoothed averages per scenery type presented in Figure 4.2 shows the clear emphasis placed by tourists on areas such as beaches and mountains which together make up 63% of scenery type preferences and broadly indicates the preference among tourists for natural areas and experiences. These can be contrasted with the relatively low popularity of non-natural areas. Cape Town is extremely fortunate in that it can offer a big city experience in tandem with top class natural areas such as its mountains, beaches and other natural areas. This is what sets it apart from most other cities on a global scale and it is these assets that need to be protected and well managed if Cape Town is to continue to grow tourism. 2 The question asked was “What type of scenery do you prefer?” 91 Figure 4.2: Preferred scenery types Source: adapted from CTRU 2006 and 2006a In the June/July 2006, CTRU surveys asked people to name the top highlight of their trip to Cape Town and the Western Cape. 3 The results of this survey, as shown in Figure 4.3, show that 36% of tourists named a natural attraction as the top highlight of their trip. 3 Tourists were asked, “Of all the places you have visited, which two do you consider to be the absolute highlights of your trip to the Western Cape? (places only: e.g. Gazi’s restaurant, Mountain Dew Apple Farm, Sipho’s craft market, a town or city, etc.)” 92 Figure 4.3: Tourist highlights Source: adapted from CTRU, 2006a Based on the survey results above and discussions with tourism authorities it seems reasonable to conclude that Cape Town’s natural assets make up 40%–60% of the package of attractions that draw tourists and their spending to the City. The value of this can be measured by applying these percentages to travel costs attributable to Cape Town, which provides estimates of between R850 million and R2.8 billion (Table 4.5). One then needs to add entry fees paid by tourists at key natural attractions (i.e. Table Mountain National Park sites such as Cape Point, Boulders, Silvermine, Tokai and the Cable Way as well as Kirstenbosch) which amounts to approximately R132 million in 2008 based on a Table Mountain National Park (TMNP) visitor survey by Donaldson (2009) (see Appendix 4.2 for detailed calculations). Total tourism values associated with natural assets then fall in the range of R965 million to R2.95 billion per annum. 93 Table 4.5: Travel costs associated with natural assets in Cape Town It needs to be recognised that the survey results discussed above do not provide the perfect tool for the derivation of the relative importance of the City’s natural assets in attracting tourists. This is primarily because they do not directly ask tourists to rate the relative importance of the City’s natural assets in motivating them to visit Cape Town. In the absence of such data, however, they provide a good proxy and may even be somewhat more reliable as they deal with actual behaviour as opposed to hypothetical importance ratings. In addition, discussions with City tourism authorities were used to confirm that results (and the assumptions on which they were based) were reasonable and erring on the side of conservatism, if anything. The surveys above all asked tourists about their experiences and activities in the Western Cape including Cape Town. Given that Cape Town makes up a relatively large portion of tourism in the Western Cape, particularly for international tourists, it is likely that tourist responses for the Western Cape including Cape Town will largely mirror those for Cape Town only. 4.3 Recreational value to local residents One of the most prominent values associated with natural environments in Cape Town are the many and varied recreational opportunities offered by them. The City’s parks, nature reserves, beaches and other open spaces allow residents to engage in a number of activities from walking and braais to canoeing and surfing, etc. The activities play a crucial role in promoting wellbeing. These recreational facilities are a necessary public good requiring the active intervention of the City in their establishment and ongoing management. The economic value of recreational services offered by natural assets is well understood throughout the world and relatively extensive literature exists on the subject (see for example RFF 2005 for a review). In addition to international experience, which shows that the recreational values associated with open space are often highly significant, research on these values in Cape Town can also be drawn on to understand recreational values. Turpie 94 et al. (2001) estimated the recreation dominated value of all local green open spaces (i.e. parks, natural areas including City nature reserves, sports fields, vacant land and agricultural areas) in the Metro South (i.e. Constantia, Lakeside, Fish Hoek, Retreat, etc.) and the Metro South East (i.e. Khayelitsha, Grassy Park, Mitchell’s Plain, etc.) using a Contingent Valuation survey. 4 These estimates focused on local open spaces and therefore did not consider the recreational value that Table Mountain National Park (TMNP) sites, Kirstenbosch or any of Cape Town’s many beaches offer to residents. Fortunately the value of Cape Town’s most popular beaches was assessed by Balance et al. (2000) using the travel cost technique. A comprehensive visitors survey conducted for all TMNP sites in 2008 (Donaldson 2009) also provided adequate data to estimate the recreational value of TMNP to Capetonians and tourists based on travel costs and entry fees paid. In order to estimate the current recreational value of all natural assets in Cape Town, the three sources mentioned above were used with extrapolations and updates where necessary, primarily taking population growth and increased travel costs into account. 4.3.1 The value of local green open spaces Using a Contingent Valuation survey, Turpie et al. (2001) found that the average willingness-to-pay (WTP) among locals for keeping all open spaces in their areas was approximately R186/yr per household. This study generated data for the Metro South (a middle to high income area) as well as the Metro South East (a predominantly low income area with pockets of middle to high income residents) making its results a suitable average for Cape Town as a whole. In order to update the results of this study, household numbers were updated to 2009 levels and WTP estimates were inflated at the general inflation rate over the period 2001 to 2009. The results of this exercise reveal a conservative average value of local green open spaces of approximately R270 million per annum (see Table 4.6). Table 4.6: Value of local green open spaces in Cape Town 4.3.2 The value of Table Mountain National Park sites and Kirstenbosch In order to estimate the recreational value of Table Mountain National Park to Capetonians, the results of a 2008 visitor survey (Donaldson 2009) provided adequate data to generate value estimates based on travel costs and entry fees paid. This was supplemented by visitor data for Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens where usage patterns were assumed to be 4 Note that City of Cape Town owned nature reserves attracted approximately 108 000 visitor from July 2008 to June 2009 generating roughly R555 000 in income from the City. 95 similar to high use areas in TMNP (i.e. Cape Point, Table Mountain Cable Way and Boulders) except for an increased proportion of Capetonian visitors relative to foreigners. The visitor survey provided data on visitor numbers, visitors origins, visitors profiles (e.g. % of visitors who were children), mode of transport, average distance of travel. This information was supplemented by gate fee data in order to estimate total travel and entry costs at all TMNP sites and Kirstenbosch of approximately R75 million per annum (Table 4.7; see also Appendix 4.2 for detailed calculations). Table 4.7: Local recreational value of TMNP sites and Kirstenbosch Source: based primarily on 2008 TMNP visitor survey (Donaldson 2009) 4.3.3 The value of Cape Town’s beaches Balance et al. (2000) applied the travel cost technique to estimate the recreational value of beaches to locals. First, the number of beach visits was estimated for residents from different parts of Cape Town which were then multiplied by average trip costs from these areas. Updating these visits to reflect increased populations and updating travel costs resulted in a current recreational value for the selected beaches at approximately R58 million per annum (see Table 4.8). While the list of beaches used in Balance et al.’s (2000) study is relatively comprehensive it is not complete and excludes a number of beaches including Strand, Gordons Bay, Glen Cairn, Sea Forth, Scarborough, Kommetjie, Noordhoek, Hout Bay and Melkbos. After considering likely usage levels at these beaches relative to those included in the Balance et al. (2002) study it seemed reasonable to increase the likely recreational value of the beaches included in the study by 20% to R70 million in order to better reflect the value of all beaches in Cape Town. This is probably a particularly conservative estimate when one considers that a number of the key beaches 96 have since been enhanced to the point where six of them now have Blue Flag status (see Box 4.2) thereby adding to their likely values. Table 4.8: Local recreational value of Cape Town’s beaches Box 4.2: Blue Flag beaches – benefits and risks of a loss of status Blue Flag is an international accreditation programme for beaches and marinas with 39 participating countries. It has become a highly marketable symbol of quality recognised by tourists and others and is awarded to beaches that meet a specific set of criteria concerning environmental information & education, water quality, safety & services, and environmental management. Cape Town has six Blue Flag beaches distributed across all incomes areas, namely, Bikini, Mnandi, Strandfontein, Muizenberg, Camps Bay, and Clifton 4th beach. The key benefit of Blue Flag is that it brings a reliable guarantee to tourists and local residents regarding the environmental quality of beaches. Furthermore, it has served to encourage local authorities and other tourism stakeholders to constantly enhance the environmental quality of their beaches and their destinations as a whole. Benefits can be better understood by looking at the consequences of their loss elsewhere. In early 2008, four of Durban’s major bathing beaches were stripped of their Blue Flag status for cleanliness, infrastructure and water quality reasons. Although misunderstandings and personality clashes were probably partially to blame, the loss of Blue Flag status has drawn highly significant media attention with reports of tourists coming to Durban but only venturing as far as their hotel swimming pools. This has resulted in a loss of confidence in the standards of Durban’s beaches among tourists and locals alike and decreases in their perceived value. Instead of a significant positive signal, a major negative signal is being sent to tourists and residents that environmental standards either don’t matter enough or that they can’t be maintained. 4.3.4 The combined recreational value of Cape Town’s natural assets Table 4.9 combines the local recreational values for local green open spaces (including City nature reserves), TMNP, Kirstenbosch and local beaches to arrive at a total local recreational value of natural assets in Cape Town of between R407 million and R494 million per annum. Values generated for local green open spaces and beaches were viewed as a probable minimum (low scenario) value primarily as they do not take into 97 account increased incomes over the period since 2001. Incomes have increased beyond population growth over the period and should be associated with higher relative values for recreation and natural assets given the link between high incomes and greater demand for recreation and nature-based activities. Medium estimates of values for local green open spaces and beaches have thus been assumed to be 10% higher and high estimates a further 10 % higher. For TMNP sites and Kirstenbosch, the medium scenario was based on survey results and high and low scenarios were estimated using a 10% increase and decrease respectively. Table 4.9: Total recreational value of Cape Town’s natural assets 4.3.5 Future recreational value opportunities It is important to appreciate that the recreational value estimates above are based on current recreational opportunities – i.e. they relate to (1) the way these facilities and areas are managed and perceived and (2) the availability of facilities and areas for recreation. Significant additional value creation opportunities are to be found when considering these factors as discussed below. 4.3.5.1 The impact of management on values The establishment of recreational areas is an obvious pre-requisite for the creation of recreational value. Important to sustaining value, however, is also how these areas are managed once established. Values primarily take their lead from adequate facilities (e.g. maintained trails, benches, toilets, play parks, etc.), cleanliness (including litter and other noticeable effects such as poor water quality) and security. For example, Turpie et al. (2001) found that the majority of respondents to the contingent valuation survey covering the Metro South and Metro South East said that their perceptions of, or values for, open space were negatively affected by crime. They classified their local park or the one they used most often as having a medium to high risk of crime. In addition, 39% and 51% of Metro South and Metro South East respondents, respectively, considered their local park to be somewhat or very dirty. Respondents also indicated that if crime and cleanliness were both improved to a high standard, the value of parks (as indicated by visitation rates) would increase by 17.5% for both areas combined. It was also clear that some Metro South East residents perceived that higher income areas have safe open space areas while their areas 98 are neglected and unsafe, and consequently of little or even negative value to them. Turpie et al. (2001) also made site-specific comparisons using the contrast between Zandvlei and Zeekoevlei to assess how safety and cleanliness had an impact on people's choice of recreational area. Survey results indicate that Zandvlei was perceived to be a generally low risk area, while Zeekoevlei was perceived to hold a high to medium risk. Zeekoevlei was also perceived to have significantly worse water quality than Zandvlei along with lower levels of cleanliness and aesthetic appeal. Van Zyl (2007) also found that values in Cape Town can be enhanced by well-managed, secure wetlands and open spaces. Effectively it was found that values were largely driven by the quality of management and the public’s perception of the relationship between these areas and their role in social issues such as crime. In one case study it was found that values created by the rehabilitation of a section of the Kuils River (including green areas and a walking trail along the river banks) had fallen away. The area in question had become overgrown, trails were no longer neatly demarcated and the majority of the trees planted near the river had died. This led to the re-emergence of the negative perceptions and values attached to the area before it was rehabilitated. 4.3.5.2 Availability of facilities and areas for recreation Particularly in lower income areas, the availability of facilities and areas for the recreational use of natural assets and local green open spaces are still severely limited resulting in artificially low current values. However, with additional facilities and management, values in these areas and others stand to increase significantly. These option values are best illustrated through examples of areas where investment continues to yield significant values including the park and natural areas at Zandvlei and the Lower Silvermine River wetland (see Box 4.3). 99 Box 4.3: Value creation at Zandvlei and the Lower Silvermine River Section 4.3.5.1 outlined the substantial recreational and aesthetic value associated with Zandvlei in Muizenberg as estimated by Turpie et al. (2001). In a general sense the vlei area and surrounding park is well managed and well used by both residents in the surrounding suburbs as well as people from further afield. The hedonic case study at Zandvlei focused on the estimation of the effects of the vlei and associated open space on properties in close proximity. It found that total property price premiums associated with the vlei were between R77 million and R87 million in 2001. In addition, the travel cost survey provided estimates of total recreational use value at about R700 000 per year. A contingent valuation exercise in which visitors were asked if they would pay a fee to make use of Zandvlei also provided further confirmation of significant recreational use value. In 1999 the City undertook the upgrade and rehabilitation of the Lower Silvermine River in Fish Hoek. The project fulfilled its brief through a combination of engineering and ‘indigenous’ landscaping solutions. Flood control measures included the excavation of a flood plain and the use of excavated material to fill adjacent properties in order to raise them above the 1 in 50 year flood line. Bird perches and small islands were included in the wetland, attracting birds to the area and the recreational potential of the site was further realised through the establishment of trails, a wooden bridge over the wetland area, information boards, benches and a parking lot. The area has become extremely popular with locals. Van Zyl et al. (2004) estimated that the recreational and aesthetic benefits of the project reflected in property value increases amounted to roughly R45 million whereas its costs were roughly R11 million yielding a significantly positive net present values (NPV) in the order of R34 million and a benefit:cost ratio slightly above 4:1. The central message of the case study is that the overall benefit:cost ratio of the project would have been very low or even negative if a narrow ‘engineering only’ approach had been followed providing clear guidance for the maximisation of benefits in future projects. The case of the False Bay Ecology Park (FBEP) provides key lessons with regard to taking a strategic view on future value potential. The vision for the False Bay Ecology Park is to become one of the leading conservation, environmental education, recreation and ecotourism centres in the country, and to provide environmental, tourism, social and economic opportunities and benefits for Capetonians, especially those in nearby disadvantaged areas. It covers 1 200 ha and includes the six key areas of Rondevlei and Zeekoevlei Nature Reserves, an adjacent coastal strip, the Cape Flats Waste Water Treatment Works, the Coastal Park Landfill Site and the CAFDA Stables Craft and Culture Centre. The Rondevlei and Zeekoevlei Nature Reserves support examples of Cape Town’s threatened vegetation types as well as wetland and open water habitats. A family of hippopotamus is present in Rondevlei and Zeekoevlei is used for water sports such as sailing and rowing. Contiguous to the nature reserves, the waste water treatment works (also known as Strandfontein) is one of South Africa’s “Important Birding Areas” where up to 20 000 birds gather, representing a remarkable diversity of species including nine Red Data species. The Cape Town Environmental Education Trust runs two overnight facilities with a focus on high quality, low cost outdoor education. Together these can accommodate 160 learners and educators (CCT 2008). The FBEC area is certainly used at present and value is derived from this use. However, current values represent only a fraction of what values could be when one makes comparisons to areas such as Zandvlei that have better facilities, higher environmental quality and less security issues (see Section 4.6 for a discussion of water quality issues that constrain value in the area). Areas such as the FBEP are thus best viewed as places with 100 highly significant option values that need to be protected and well managed in order for the highest possible value of these areas to be realised in the future. This will require political will and investments as the FBEP faces many challenges, including encroaching urban developments, security, illegal dumping, littering and water pollution. While values are necessarily driven by City interventions which is to be expected given their public good nature, the activities of community-based initiatives such as Cape Flats Nature are also critical (see Box 4.4). Box 4.4: The role of community support and partnership in creating value The role of local communities partnering with the City and other relevant agencies in helping to generate and secure recreational and other environmental values should not be underestimated. The involvement of local community groups and other partners in the planning stages of new projects such as parks is clearly important. However, they can also provide a significant boost to City investments with their own investments of time and resources thereby reducing the need for the City to go it alone with funding and increasing the chances of success. In the case of the Lower Silvermine River upgrade, during rehabilitation, the Friends of Silvermine River participated in ensuring that environmental goals were met. After rehabilitation, the group still plays an important role in ensuring the continued conservation and sound management of the area including activities such as alien hacking, rubbish removal, monitoring public behaviour, educational projects, the raising of funds for maintenance and the promotion of the area (Van Zyl et al. 2004). There are a number of other ‘Friends’ groups throughout the City that do similar work and nearly every nature reserve managed by the City has a dedicated volunteer community group supporting the Biodiversity Management Branch’s work in many ways. In addition, local communities participate in the advisory committees of the reserves (CCT 2008). Cape Flats Nature also offers an example of what is possible in partnership with communities in lower income areas. This project is essentially a catalytic stewardship project that involves citizens and communities taking responsibility for management of biodiversity in partnership with City nature conservation officials. It was founded in 2002 as a partnership project of the City of Cape Town, the South African National Biodiversity Institute, the Table Mountain Fund (WWF-SA) and the Botanical Society of South Africa. 4.4 Values associated with globally significant biodiversity It is difficult to overestimate the importance of Cape Town from a biodiversity value perspective. The Cape Floral Region (CFR) with Cape Town at its heart has almost 9 000 different plant species 70% of which are endemic (i.e. confined) to the region. The CFR is also easily the smallest of six globally recognised floral kingdoms and is the only one located within a single country’s borders. Although comprising only 4% of South Africa’s land surface, it encompasses half of the country’s plant species, 40% of the national vegetation types and a highly disproportionate 20 out of 21 “critically endangered” national vegetation types (CCT 2008). All these factors have contributed to the CFR’s status as one of only 34 global “biodiversity hotspots” (defined as a region rich in endemic plant species that has lost 70% of its habitat and is threatened with further destruction). Within the CFR hotspot, Cape Town has an extremely important place as a key centre of endemism harbouring very high concentrations of biodiversity. If one considers the biodiversity within 101 the City’s boundaries it can convincingly be argued that it is the most important city in the world from a biodiversity conservation perspective. While faunal diversity cannot compare with that of the flora, the perception that fynbos has a low faunal species diversity is not accurate. Much of the fauna, however, is inconspicuous, nocturnal and occurs at low densities. The CCT is blessed with 18 terrestrial vegetation types, numerous wetlands, an extensive coastline as well as great topographical variation. This diversity of habitat provides numerous niches that allow a large suite of faunal species to exist (CCT 2008). Added to this, Cape Town is surrounded by a unique and diverse marine environment. While foreign donor funding of conservation does not provide a reliable estimate of the value of biodiversity, it does provides an indication of the importance of the biodiversity of the CFR at a global scale. In recent times this funding has been substantial and has primarily flowed through the Cape Action for People and the Environment (C.A.P.E.) Programme. C.A.P.E. is a partnership of roughly 23 government and civil society institutions aimed at conserving and restoring the biodiversity of the CFR and the adjacent marine environment, while delivering significant benefits to the people of the region. In 2004, the C.A.P.E. programme received two Global Environment Facility grants totalling US$14 million in addition to a Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund five-year grant of US$6 million to the (CFR) from 2002 to 2006. This funding equates to approximately R225 million in current values – a highly significant recognition of the international importance of the biodiversity contained in the Cape Floristic Region. Going beyond foreign funding indications and attaching a quantitative value to biodiversity per se is generally recognised as a difficult and potentially highly misleading exercise. This is primarily because, while extremely important, it is very difficult to isolate or adequately ‘compartmentalise’ biodiversity in a conventional valuation exercise. It is thus best to understand the conservation of biodiversity as an important pre-requisite for ecosystem services to exist and flourish thereby giving rise to value streams. Biodiversity needs to be recognised and valued as a critical ‘umbrella’ service without which most other valuable ecosystems services would be diminished or may even become unavailable. To name a few examples, tourism flows are enhanced by biodiversity, the sense of place associated with Cape Town is intricately linked to the uniqueness of the biodiversity in the City, biodiverse systems increase resilience to change and provide services to agriculture such as pollination and pest control. Natural areas also facilitate significant educational benefits (see Box 4.5) 102 Box 4.5: Educational values associated with the City’s natural assets Cape Town’s various natural assets provide for more fulfilling and varied educational experiences among learners. They provide a huge open-air classroom for environmental education and extensive education programme are associated with them with the most prominent ones being run by the City, TMNP and SANBI. During the year July 2008 to June 2009, a total of 23 781 learners (equivalent to 59 708 days of education) from roughly 500 schools attended environmental education programmes on City reserves. With regard to Table Mountain National Park, the primary thrust of the programme is the training of teachers at previously disadvantaged schools that can then educate the children in their classrooms and take them on field trips to the Park. Transport is provided free of charge using busses and an average of 180 teachers are trained per year. The current average number of learners visiting the Park on field trips was 12 000 children per year up from 10 000 in 2004 (Standish et al. 2004). The Park has seven permanent staff members working on education and part-time volunteers also provide assistance. The Kirstenbosch Environmental Education Programme started in 1996 and has a number of different focus areas. The Garden-based School Programme offers lessons to learners from Grade R to Grade 12 in the Kirstenbosch Gardens. A team of education officers facilitate these lessons engaging learners with the range of topics. Approximately 14 000 learners per year benefit from this experience and the Kirstenbosch Outreach Bus provides free transport for learners from disadvantaged areas. Schools and pre-schools also organise their own 'self-guided' education programmes in the Garden. The Outreach Greening Programme works with schools and communities to establish indigenous water-wise gardens. Teacher Professional Development is also a major focus area along with learning resource materials development. 4.4.1 Threats to biodiversity values While current values associated with biodiversity in Cape Town are highly significant they are far from secure (CCT 2008). The City is recognised as an area that has already, or is on the verge of, losing a significant portion of its biodiversity assets. While biodiversity in the sandstone and upper mountain habitats of the city remains relatively intact in areas such as the Table Mountain National Park, the situation in flatter areas is critical. The extremely poor conservation status of the majority of the vegetation types within the City relates to the large-scale land transformation that has taken place in the lowlands for agriculture and urban development. Currently there is an intensifying biodiversity conservation crisis in the Cape Town lowlands (a large part of which is known as the “Cape Flats”), with only extremely small areas of lowland vegetation formally conserved. Of the 450 Red Data listed species found in Cape Town, 318 are threatened with extinction of which 203 are on the Cape Flats (CCT 2008). Invasive alien plants also continue to have a disastrous impact on species. They often have better adaptive capacity allowing them to successfully compete with indigenous species and ecosystems. They highjack water resources from indigenous species and because of their density and height, can capture the light to the detriment of smaller indigenous species. Finally, alien seeds can resist extreme soil temperatures a lot better than those of some fynbos species making fire their ally in further spread. 103 The City (and South Africa in general) are at the forefront of biodiversity conservation planning and has produced a Biodiversity Network plan and map that shows the minimum amounts of remnant land parcels requiring conservation if biodiversity is to be maintained. Information on what is needed is therefore available but accelerated implementation is required to avoid irreversible losses. 4.5 Natural hazard regulation Natural hazards including fires, flooding and storm surges have significant negative impacts on the safety and wellbeing of Capetonians, their property and other assets. Ecosystems, however, naturally act as barriers, or buffers, against natural hazards, thus mitigating their negative impacts (see Figure 4.4). However, the more ecosystems are weakened, due to human activities, or lack of adequate management and restoration, the lower their performance as natural barriers and buffers against natural hazards, leaving the people of Cape Town more vulnerable. When assessing the natural hazard regulation function of the City’s natural assets/capital, it is therefore important to pay attention to all that threatens these assets’ role in hazard regulation and understand where changes for the better are possible and costs can be saved. Natural Hazards • Fires • Flooding • Storm surge & Sea-level rise E C O S Y S T E M S Reduced Consequences • Damages • Management costs • People at risk Figure 4.4: Natural hazard buffering by ecosystems The value of buffering and mitigation services generally goes unnoticed until disaster strikes and often significant, yet avoidable, damage is done. The magnitude of these damages and their probability of occurrence when ecosystems are weakened can thus be used to attach indicative values to the natural hazard regulation function of the City’s natural assets/capital. Aside from this measure, the costs associated with additional preventative management measures that are necessitated by the weakened buffering capacity of ecosystems can also give an indication of value. In what follows, the natural hazard regulation functions of the City’s natural assets are assessed with regard to fires, floods and storm surges. Values are attached to these functions where possible. The focus falls on: • The nature of the hazards and their consequences (incl. frequency, damages, vulnerability, etc.) 104 • The role and value of natural assets in hazard regulation 4.5.1 Wildfire prevention and mitigation The summer months in Cape Town are prevailingly dry, hot and windy and as a result the area is highly vulnerable to wildfires. These fires are associated with injury, loss of life, community dislocation, damage to property and ecological damage. In addition, disaster management expenditure on controlling fires and cleaning up after them is significant. In Cape Town the consequences of fires are easily exacerbated as homes are located in, or adjacent to fire-prone areas of vegetation. This increases risks to property and/or life and may also force fire fighters to shift their attention towards structure protection instead of focusing their efforts on controlling fires. 4.5.1.1 Fire damage costs The total annual economic cost of destructive wildfires in South Africa has been estimated by the CSIR at R743 million per year in 2006. For the Western Cape, the damages to land values have been estimated at around R15 million per year, but could be as high as R30 million when figures are proportionally adjusted for anecdotal evidence supporting national estimates (DEA&DP 2007). These are probably conservative estimates when one considers the R30 million to R40 million in damages attributable to the March 2009 fires in Somerset West (R25 to R30 million in damages for Lourensford wine estate and R5 million to R10 million for Vergelegen wine estate (Nombembe & Davids 2009)). Aside from damages to property and other assets, fires are also associated with morbidity and mortality impacts that tend to effect the most vulnerable in society. Although deaths are relatively rare they do occur and as a rule they affect the most vulnerable sectors of society who often live in fire-prone informal settlements. Fire smoke can also be associated with health impacts. For example, in the 2008/2009 fire season, a thick pall of smoke often hung over the city as fires swept outlying areas for a total of 16 days. This smoke was associated with a range of health problems such as asthma, irritation of the eyes, throat, and lungs, which could lead to respiratory or heart problems particularly among the young and the elderly. 4.5.1.2 Fire management costs Fire fighting costs can vary widely depending on risk. According to Kruger et al. (2004) (as quoted in CSIR 2006), the baseline cost of a Fire Protection Organisation (FPO) in an area with an extreme or high-risk rating is R375 000 per annum, compared to R130 000 in a moderate risk area. Because wildfires break out seasonally in the City, it needs to have adequate equipment and a trained service to fight fire which comes at a significant cost. For example, it costs close to R23 000/hour to keep a Working on Fire helicopter in the air in addition to the annual standing fee of R1 million per helicopter (DEA&DP 2007). With regard to recorded costs, direct costs of fire fighting associated with the January 2000 fire 105 on the Cape Peninsula amounted to $500 000 or R6.4 million in current terms (Kruger et al. 2000). 4.5.1.3 The role of Invasive Alien Plants in fire For the natural fynbos ecosystems in the City, fires need not be a cause for concern as these systems are ‘fire driven’ and rely on fire for renewal. However, this only holds for fires with a natural frequency (the mean natural fire period in the Western Cape is about 15 years, with intervals between fires ranging between 4 and 40 years (Midgley et al. 2005)), intensity, extent, type and seasonality that are fuelled by natural vegetation (i.e. fynbos). Fires that do not meet these criteria can have significant and avoidable negative socioeconomic consequences that impose high costs on the City and its residents. The presence of Invasive Alien Plants (IAPs) in Cape Town remains a serious cause for concern with regard to fire mitigation. On the whole these plants remain relatively widespread and are a major aggravating factor with respect to wildfire frequency, extent and intensity while posing a key threat to local biodiversity and being associated with increased security and water supply risks. The fire-related impacts from IAPs include the following: • Increased fire intensity due to greater fuel loads. IAPs are generally associated with significantly greater biomass when compared to natural vegetation which leads to larger more intense fires. Fuel loads can exceed those for fynbos by up to tenfold (Versfeld & Van Wilgen 1986; Van Wilgen & Richardson 1985). • Denser stands make fires more difficult to fight on the ground (hamper access for fire fighting and sight lines). • Increased erosion potential and soil loss after fires as the increased intensity of alien fuelled fires burns the soil at a higher temperature thereby damaging it and making it significantly less stable. Studies have demonstrated that soil loss increases 20 to 60fold after fire in grassland and fynbos catchments afforested with pines (Scott & Van Wyk 1990) These impacts lead to higher damage costs, higher firefighting costs and avoidable cleanup costs. The magnitude of these direct and indirect damages and costs are difficult to model and foresee given uncertainties. However, previous experience as follows indicates that they are significant: • In January 2000, two wildfires burnt 8 000 ha on the Cape Peninsula resulting in insurance claims of approximately $5.7 million or R73 million in current terms (Kruger et al. 2000), and it appeared that most houses and structures that were damaged were in areas invaded by alien plants, where fire intensities were much higher than in adjacent un-invaded areas. Furthermore, after the 2000 fires, an average of 147 tons/ha of soil was lost from alien invaded areas compared with negligible losses from areas with natural vegetation (Euston-Brown 2000). • In March 1999 a wildfire on the Cape Peninsula created water-repellent conditions in an invaded area which formerly had no overland flow (Scott 1999). A month later, 106 • heavy rains were followed by floods with clean-up costs amounting to over $150 000 in addition to flood damage to 30 dwellings which probably also totalled at least $150 000 (Van Wilgen et al. 2001). Importantly, these impacts and costs totalling R3.8 million in current terms did not occur to adjacent areas that were not invaded by alien species. With regards to increased costs of fire management, De Wit et al. (2001) estimated an incremental costs increase of 5% in fire management due to the presence of invasive black wattle. This was based on the understanding that black wattle increases fire hazard in extreme weather conditions (Van Wilgen & Richardson 1985). 4.5.1.4 Status of IAPs and clearing costs Current expenditure on alien clearing has achieved significant risk reductions. However, serious risks remain particularly on land that forms part of the City’s Biodiversity Network and therefore has a high biodiversity value. Inaction or even a business as usual approach will only result in exponentially increased costs over the longer term. This is because clearing and ongoing control costs for areas that are lightly infested by IAPs are substantially lower than these costs for denser more mature stands that have been left to grow. Hence, there is a strong argument for the early detection, prevention and rapid response, if at all possible. The continued presence of IAPs also results in a vicious cycle linked to further increased fire frequency. Many IAPs are adapted to fire and spread more readily and faster when fires become more frequent (particularly species such as the Australian acacias). Fires, enhanced by the presence of IAPs to start with, can thus further enhance the spread of alien invasives. According to Forsyth et al. (2004), CapeNature estimated that the additional costs necessary to control post-fire flushes of IAP seedlings to prevent them becoming dominant over the next few years amounted to R17.5 million following fires on 40 000 ha in 2006. Alternately, if funds or capacity do not allow for immediate follow-up, the costs of control rise as the plants grow. If the infestations were to be left for 10 years, CapeNature estimates that control costs would rise almost four-fold to R65 million on the same 40 000 ha. 4.5.1.5 The role of natural assets in managing risks The damages, management costs, disruption and other social costs associated with fires in Cape Town are highly significant particularly for those most vulnerable. The presence of invasive alien species and their influence over fire intensity in particular, exacerbates costs and results in a vicious cycle that feeds the further spread of alien invasives adding further to costs. The continued presence of IAPs thus represents a situation in which inadequate management of the natural environment leads to the amplification of costs associated with fires. 107 Damage and management cost estimates described above are for the status quo and have been used as guides to generate likely low, medium and high total cost scenarios as given in Table 4.10. Note that in the absence of reliable data, management costs have been assumed to roughly equal damage costs (this reflects the likelihood that management effort is equal to potential damages at a minimum). The key question with respect to the value of enhanced management of the natural environment is what level of damages and management costs could be avoided through IAP clearing and control? Unfortunately, a lack of quantitative data on the relationship between IAPs and damages and management makes this question difficult to answer with confidence and is, therefore, best dealt with using likely scenarios (low, medium and high) based on the current understanding of links outlined above. Based on this understanding, it seems reasonable to assume that between 5% and 10% of current damages and management costs can be avoided with optimal management of natural assets (i.e. strictly applying the City’s targets with respect to IAP clearing and control as per the City’s Integrated Metropolitan Environmental Policy (IMEP 2009)). Optimal use would thus translate into natural asset values between R1.5 million and R5 million per annum in terms of current costs avoided (Table 4.10). Table 4.10: Value of damages and management costs that could be avoided through IAP clearing and control Looking to the future, climate change will most likely play a key role in intensifying challenges associated with IAPs and fires. According to Midgley et al. (2005), the frequency of intense wildfires will most likely increase substantially, and high fire risk conditions are projected to almost triple in the western parts of the Western Cape including Cape Town. Indicatively, if the fire risk ratings of all municipalities were adjusted just one rating upwards, the additional costs for fire protection organisations could amount to R7.5 million per annum across the Western Cape. The assessment above focuses on the role of IAPs in exacerbating fire. It needs to be borne in mind, however, that IAPs pose other threats to society as, or more, important than those associated with fires (see Box 4.6). 108 Box 4.6: Non-fire impacts associated with invasive alien plants Invasive alien plants are one of the key threats to indigenous biodiversity (see section 4.4.1) and highjack a significant part of the already scarce water resources of the area hence the need for the Working for Water Programme. In the mid-nineties, the first studies quantifying the impacts of IAPs on water resources (Van Wilgen et al. 1992; Le Maitre et al. 1996; Van Wilgen et al. 1996) were released, drawing attention to the seriousness of the problem. A further study by Versfeld et al. (1998) suggested that invasive alien plants could be using as much as almost 7% of the country’s runoff with higher reductions in the Western Cape reaching of up to 15.8% (Enright 1999). In addition to these impacts, IAPs introduce significant social costs. Especially in an urban setting such as Cape Town, dense stands of alien bushes and trees provide criminals with a base from where they can launch crimes as well as commit them while remaining unseen and these often become no-go zones for local communities. The security risks associated with dense stands of vegetation (often IAP stands) are also known to be reflected in reduced property values. Van Zyl et al. (2004) and Turpie et al. (2001) found that security-related decreases of between 2% and 10% were relatively common for properties that bordered on densely vegetated areas seen as security risks. With regard to overall value impacts of IAPs, Higgins et al. (1997) calculated the value of a hypothetical 4 000 ha mountain fynbos ecosystem at between US$3 million with no management of alien plants, and US$50 million with effective management of alien plants. This was based on six value components: water production, wildflower harvest, hiker visitation, ecotourism visitation, endemic species and genetic storage. Given that there are over 1 million ha of protected fynbos areas in South Africa, the potential reduction in value due to invasion could amount to over US$11.75 billion (Van Wilgen et al. 2001). Summary points: wildfire prevention and mitigation • • • • The January 2000 wildfires on the Cape Peninsula resulted in insurance claims of approximately R73 million in current terms, and it appeared that most houses and structures that were damaged were in areas invaded by alien plants. Average damages associated with wildfires in Cape Town have been estimated at between R15 million and R25 million per annum while management costs are probably of a similar magnitude. The continued presence of alien invasive plants and their influence over fire intensity in particular, exacerbates costs and results in a vicious cycle that feeds the further spread of aliens. Damage and management costs avoided as a result of the optimisation of natural assets functions though alien clearing would range from R1.5 million to R5 million per annum in Cape Town. Aside from their influence on fire risk, invasive alien plants are one of the key threats to indigenous biodiversity and highjack a significant part of the already scarce water resources of the area. In addition to these impacts, IAPs can introduce significant social costs where dense stands are used as hiding places for criminals. 4.5.2 Flood attenuation Amongst natural threats, floods are one of the most destructive often targeting the most vulnerable. The impacts of flooding events, especially in densely developed and populated urban areas, are thus of growing concern. Flooding affects thousands of Capetonians each year, putting their property and belongings, businesses, safety, health and sometimes even 109 their lives at risk. The consequences of flooding can be grouped into those that relate to damage to property and those associated with poor living conditions that arise from flooding. Damage to property, infrastructure and other facilities. Floods are a destructive force and are associated with damages to property, infrastructure (such as roads and bridges) and other facilities (such as electrical sub-stations). Even when entire structures are not swept away or undermined, damages to the contents of properties such as flooring, furniture and other belongings can be significant. Aside from residential property and infrastructure, businesses and smaller businesses in particular are often vulnerable to damage to premises, stock losses, disruption and reneging on deliveries. Impacts on the living conditions and health of flood victims. When floods occur, thousands of people (10 000 people in 2007, 30 000 in 2008) are directly affected and must be helped with food, warmth and temporary shelter. Solidarity networks, churches, NGOs and other community groups provide as much relief as possible but are most often overwhelmed. These problems are particularly acute in informal settlements that are often on low lying lands prone to flooding. The social disruptions associated with floods can also have knock-on effects. For example, flood victims are generally not allowed to bring any of their belongings with them to community halls due to space restrictions. This compels many household heads to leave dependents at the community halls before returning themselves to their shacks in order to protect their belongings from potential looters. Trust is therefore at its minimum level and tensions arise quickly. From a health perspective flooding is often accompanied by post-flood stagnant water, which increases the risks of disease outbreaks. Poor living conditions including lack of warm clothes, food, poor hygienic conditions and toilet facilities, and often difficult access to saturated medical support, increases this risk. Children, elderly and fragile people are most likely to be affected. 4.5.2.1 Flood damage costs At a provincial scale, flood damages regularly amount to hundreds of millions of rands. In 2006, the cost to repair the damage caused by the floods to the Southern Cape area amounted to R600 million. In 2007, this figure was exceeded when floods were experienced again. In Cape Town, winter is synonymous with some level of flooding each year particularly in the lower lying areas of the Cape Flats. In the July 2008 floods, approximately 30 000 people were affected and 7 500 structures damaged (see Table 4.11). 110 Table 4.11: Impacts of the July 2008 floods in Cape Town Informal settlements affected Damaged structures People directly affected People housed at emergency shelters in community halls People displaced in safety zones Number of meals served twice a day Number of blankets distributed 70 7 500 30 000 3 000 2 480 22 000 13 000 Source: City of Cape Town, media release No 330/2008, 10 July 2008. In August 2004, direct losses incurred as a result of flooding in the city exceeded R6.5 million, including relief provided to affected households and damages suffered by the private and public sectors. Indicatively, after the 2004 floods, R4.3 million in insurance payouts were made to cover hundreds of claims. In order to estimate likely total property damage costs that would be associated with flooding, data from the City of Cape Town GIS database was used to estimate the total number of properties within the 1 in 100 year flood line per property type (e.g. residential, business, schools, etc.). Potential damages to each structure was then estimated and a total potential damage cost estimate of R454 million spread over 100 years was generated (see Table 4.12). This estimate was based only on the roughly 80% of the City mapping of the 1 in 100 year flood line completed to date and was consequently increased by 20% to R545 million to account for as yet unmapped areas. This translates into roughly R5.45million per annum. To this property damage figure one needs to add costs broadly associated with disruptions (i.e. transport delays, lost time at work, etc.), health costs and any other social costs. These costs are likely to be significant although their quantification was not possible here. 111 Table 4.12: Potential damage costs from flooding in the City of Cape Town over 100 years 4.5.2.2 Flood management costs In addition to the damages estimated above, floods result in the City incurring management costs for containment, relief, provision of basic supplies, etc. Usable estimates for these costs were not available. They have consequently been assumed to roughly equal damage costs given the likelihood that management effort is equal to potential damages at a minimum. 4.5.2.3 The role of natural assets in managing risks Flood risks arise from a combination of natural factors such as rainfall that cannot be controlled or influenced as well as other factors that can be managed to a large extent. Given what is physically possible in addition to limited resources, it is not possible to completely eliminate flood risks particularly in the case of flood-prone areas, such as Cape Flats. Risks can, however, be managed to acceptable levels through appropriate 112 stormwater infrastructure, disaster management as well as land use planning and environmental management. Limiting the development of natural areas is known to play a key role in mitigating floods as it is one of the only ways to limit the imperviousness (i.e. not able to absorb and slow water flows down) of areas. Urbanisation inevitably leads to an increase of the extent of impervious ground cover, which, in turn, results in a limited capacity of water infiltration and increases in peak storm discharge and total runoff volume and velocity. Urban development typically entails changes in land use, switching from natural ground covers to buildings and infrastructure such as roads, parking lots, driveways, sidewalks, etc. As a rough indication, most developed land uses exceed the threshold of 10-15% impervious cover, which defines a healthy watershed or stream system, and impervious surface cover (ISC) in downtown areas can exceed 95% (Marsalek 2007). High levels of impervious ground cover have predictable global impacts on the nature of flooding events. For instance, in a study by Arnold and Gibbons (1996), it appeared that since stormwater runs off impervious surfaces, and not through them, the runoff volume typically increases twofold as the percent catchments imperviousness increases to 10–20%, threefold with an impervious surface cover of 35–40%, and more than fivefold with an impervious surface cover of 75–100% compared to a forested catchment (Sheng 2006). Thus, typically, the runoff coefficients of fully built-up areas range between 0.85 and 0.9 (meaning that most rainfall will run off directly with an infiltration level close to nil) while the same coefficients for parks and forested areas range between 0.3 and 0.35. The implication of these altered relationships in the water balance equation is that runoff in a built-up area becomes ‘peaked’ and ‘flashy’ in nature. Studies also indicate that the size of one-hundred-year floods can potentially double in watersheds with impervious cover levels greater than 20–30% (DSGCP 2005). Recognising the strong links between excessive imperviousness as well as inappropriate building and flood risk, the City’s Roads and Stormwater Department recently released a Floodplain Management Policy which recognised the role of the City’s natural assets and is consistent with national and provincial legislative and planning contexts. The key concept supporting this policy is that water courses and wetlands, whether natural or constructed, form an integral component of stormwater management systems, and can become a valuable asset when well managed (CCT 2009). Its main objectives are to reduce the impact of flooding on community livelihoods and regional economies and to safeguard human health, protect natural aquatic environments and improve and maintain recreational water quality. The policy provides strong support for the idea that it is far more cost effective, in the long-term, to favour development in areas where flood risk and flood severity are minimal, as opposed to the implementation of costly flood mitigation works, or the bearing of damage costs resulting from failure of infrastructure. Moreover, where development has occurred, or shall occur in the future, despite an existing flood risk, land use, development, activities and buildings need to be appropriate to the anticipated degree of flood risk (CCT 2009). 113 Damage and management cost estimates described above are for the status quo and have been used as a guide to generate likely low, medium and high total cost scenarios as given in Table 4.13. The key question with respect to the buffering value of the natural environment is what level of damages and management can be avoided if natural assets are allowed to fulfil their role as buffers? Unfortunately a lack of data on the relationship between buffers and damages makes this question very difficult to answer with confidence and best dealt with using likely scenarios (low, medium and high) based on the current understanding of links outlined above. Based on this understanding, it seems reasonable to assume that between 5% and 40% of damages and associated management costs can be avoided in the future with optimal use of natural assets (i.e. strictly applying the City’s Floodplain Management Policy thereby limiting inappropriate building and excessive imperviousness). The relatively high degree of success in avoiding future costs in the high scenario was primarily informed by the steep rises in flood risk with increased imperviousness. Optimal use would translate into natural asset values between R463 000 and R5 million per annum (Table 4.13). Note that this is an estimate of potential future costs avoided with concerted action and does not imply that current costs will decrease. Table 4.13: Value of flood buffering by natural assets Summary points: flood attenuation • • • Property damage induced by floods in Cape Town have been estimated at approximately R5.45 million per annum while management costs and relief costs are probably of a similar magnitude at a minimum. Storm water runs off of impervious surfaces and is not absorbed, hence, the runoff volume typically increases twofold as the percent catchments imperviousness increases to 10–20%, threefold with an impervious surface cover of 35–40%, and more than fivefold with an impervious surface cover of 75–100% compared to catchments with natural vegetation cover. City policy recognises that water courses and wetlands, whether natural or constructed, form an integral component of stormwater management systems, and can become a valuable asset when well managed. The strong links between excessive imperviousness as well as inappropriate building in flood prone areas and flood risk cannot be ignored. 114 • Damage and management costs avoided as a result of the optimisation of natural assets functions would range from R463 000 and R5 million per annum. 4.5.3 Storm surge attenuation One of the anticipated consequences of global climate change is a rise of observed sea level; which is a function of mean sea level, tidal influences and meteorological forcing of sea level. When it comes to mean sea level, changes normally occur on a centennial scale. However, this scale is likely to become abbreviated for two reasons: the thermal expansion of the top 3 000 meters of the ocean, which absorb 80% of the energy added to the global climate system by global warming, and the glacial melt of ice sheets. In the past century, thermal expansion has accounted for roughly two-thirds of the sea level rise (Cartwright 2008). Melting ice accounts for the remaining third of historical increases, but is noticeably increasing at a quicker rate than thermal expansion. Although climate induced changes to mean sea level are not the same in all regions of the world, available evidence suggests that the mean sea level around Cape Town increases accordingly to the mean global rate, which was approximately 2 cm per decade (Searson & Bundritt 1995). Some of the most damaging sea level rise events in the recent past, including the 2007 storm surge in KwaZulu-Natal, have involved a tidal and meteorological influence. The erosion damages following these storm surges were highly significant, and in similar circumstances, the most exposed sections of the Cape Town coastline could endure similar damages. Cape Town’s 308 km long coastline shelters a wide range of species and ecosystems, and provides numerous ecological services, as well as a range of economic and social opportunities such as recreational and amenity areas. These assets have motivated high levels of development, despite the vulnerability of the land adjacent to the coast to storm surges. In the current context of climate change and sea level rise, this development appears to have been somewhat imprudent, and faces potential devastation. Current understanding is that global climate change, in conjunction with increased intensity and abbreviated return times of storms will give rise to periods (of about 1–4 hours) during which the “observed” sea level could be 1 to 15 meters higher than the current mean sea level leading to floods and significant socio-economic damages (Cartwright 2008). 4.5.3.1 Costs associated with storm surges The increased risks of storm surges and their associated costs in Cape Town have been assessed recently in terms of (Cartwright 2008): • Loss of real estate value • Damage to infrastructure • Foregone tourism revenue 115 The loss of real estate value. Over the past 15 years, coastal areas such as Blaauwberg, Llandudno, Hout bay, Kommetjie, Glen Cairn and Strand have attracted important real estate investments. As the coastline becomes increasingly exposed to storm surges, existing properties will grow more vulnerable, and could suffer considerable damage, while vacant land may be regarded as uninsurable and undesirable for development. The total value of the real estate at risk in Cape Town over the next 25 years has been estimated at R3.23 billion for a 2.5 meter sea level rise event, R19.46 billion for a 4.5 meter sea level rise event and R44.46 billion for a 6.5 meter sea level rise event (Table 4.14) Table 4.14: Scenarios of the loss of real estate value along the Cape Town coast Scenario Scenario 1 Km2 affected Scenario 3 25 61 95 7% 11% 18% 1860 2900 2600 R3.255 billion R19.459 billion R 44.46 billion % of affected land that is private property Weighted average value of affected property (R/m2) Total value of loss of real estate Scenario 2 Scenario 1 involves a 2.5 meters sea level rise event, scenario 2 involves a 4.5m rise, and scenario 3 a 6.5m rise. Source: Adapted from Cartwright (2008) Foregone tourism revenue. The coastline and beaches of Cape Town make a significant contribution to the City’s tourism appeal. Sea level rise and storm surges affect coastal landscapes and amenities such as beaches as well as access infrastructure. Boulders beach, for example, may become inaccessible for large parts of the daily tide cycle under certain scenarios, while beaches like Camps Bay and Llandudno could grow rockier as wave erosion intensifies. The overall allure of Cape Town’s beaches could be diminished making the City less appealing to both foreign and domestic tourists and inducing a loss of tourist income. Cartwright (2008) estimates 3%, 6% and 15% total tourist revenue losses over a one-year period depending on the sea-level rise scenario. Damage to infrastructure. Sea level rise events would also damage infrastructure on which the city depends, such as stormwater infrastructures, electricity distribution infrastructure and municipal transport lines. This will not only necessitate costly repairs but would impact negatively on quality of life, business activities and the appeal of Cape Town as an investment destination to the point where it may affect the overall development trajectory of the City. Potential total values at risk from storm surges are summarised in Table 4.15 using scenarios related to surge severity. The final column in Table 4.15 reports on the overall value of risks in the City by multiplying probabilities of occurrence with total potential losses to arrive at risk values of between R4.4 billion and R10.5 billion spread over roughly 25 116 years (or between R176 million and R420 million per year). These figures are certainly highly significant but also open to misinterpretation. It is highly unlikely that the city should be confronted with the full extent of these costs in a single sea level rise event, as that would require a simultaneous and homogeneous rise of the sea at all points of the coastline and we know that storm surges tend to be localised. Consequently, these figures should rather be regarded as representing the cumulative total value at risk, over a period of 25 years, at all points of the coast. They also assume the total destruction of the real estate and infrastructure in question as opposed to partial damages. Total destruction of all structures seems highly unlikely given experiences with flooding in Cape Town which results in similar outcomes associated with inundation. Following a more realistic approach we assumed that, on average, actual damages would amount to 15% of values associated with total destruction. 5 This would result in likely damages of between R26.4 million and R63 million per annum. Table 4.15: Summary of the value of total risks over 25 years associated with increased storm surges in Cape Town Assumed probability of occurrence in the next 25 years Value of public infrastructure at Value of Value of risk tourism real estate revenue at risk at risk Stormwater Roads Electricity Scenario 1 0.95 R3.255 billion R260 million Scenario 2 0.85 R19.459 billion Scenario 3 0.20 R44.46 billion R167.3 million Probability adjusted value of the risk to the city R900 million R94.8 million R4.44 billion R505 million R408.25 R2.197 million billion R230.2 million R19.38 billion R1.25 billion R635.80 R5.702 million billion R358.6 million R10.5 billion Source: Adapted from Cartwright (2008) Scenario 1involves a 2.5 meters sea level rise event, scenario 2 involves a 4.5m rise, and scenario 3 a 6.5m rise. Value of tourism revenue at risk has be adjusted downward by 65% from Cartwright (2008) as this study used Western Cape spend instead of Cape Town spend and included business tourists as well as those visiting family. 4.5.3.2 Storm surge management costs In addition to the damages estimated above, storm surge events result in the City incurring management costs for containment, relief, provision of basic supplies, etc. No estimates of 5 Note that applying a 15% discount factor was also necessary for tourism loss estimates as these were based on losses in total tourist expenditure and not revealed values making them a likely substantial overestimate of lost value. 117 these costs were available and, as with flood management, they have consequently been assumed to roughly equal damage costs reflecting the likelihood that management effort is equal to potential damages at a minimum. 4.5.3.3 The role of natural assets in managing risks Having outlined potential risks and costs above, the key question is how they can be feasibly minimised? In this regard, ‘physical’ or ‘hard’ engineering solutions, natural solutions and institutional solutions make up the available options. From a hard engineering perspective, erecting sea walls is one available option. This can be effective, but also has its downsides. In particular, because of the constant maintenance that they require, sea walls often translate into an economic burden over the longer term. Natural solutions include ensuring that the remaining natural parts of the coastline which act as buffers are not lost primarily through the development of the coastline. Not only does development take away buffering capacity it also places more structures and people in harm’s way. In addition, more development of the coastline generally detracts from its natural beauty thereby reducing aesthetic, recreational and tourism values. Other natural interventions to increase buffering include creating kelp beds, rockier beaches and sand dunes that will increase the absorption capacity of the coastline. High levels of uncertainty exist regarding the most appropriate solutions to risk minimisation given uncertainty with regard to their efficacy. It stands to reason, however, that natural solutions will have to at least form part of the set of interventions required. The natural approach offers sustainability advantages and is more likely to allow for the realisation of multiple benefits with minimal knock-on effects. Cartwright (2008) suggests options available for Cape Town that can be best classified as “least regrets” options (i.e. options likely to entail lower opportunity costs) (see Figure 4.5), and “additional” options (see Appendix 4.3) probably involving higher levels of costs including opportunity costs. 118 • Do not reclaim further land • Do not further degrade wetlands and estuaries • Do not further degrade dunes cordons • Maintain drains and stormwater systems No regrets approach • Integrate sea level rise scenarios in future planning decisions • Incorporate sea level rise risk in disaster management strategies • Decentralise strategic infrastructures • Alleviate poverty and improve living conditions Figure 4.5: Responses to storm surge risks likely to entail least regrets Source: Adapted from Cartwright (2008) From a natural asset valuation perspective it is difficult to quantify the link between natural solutions and reduced risks and damage costs. The probability does, however, seem high that it would be optimal to treat any further development on the few intact stretches of the Cape Town coastline (including estuaries and wetlands) with circumspection if we are to allow these stretches to continue to act as buffers. Damage and management cost estimates described above are for the status quo and have been used as guides to generate likely low, medium and high total cost scenarios as given in Table 4.16. The key question with respect to the buffering value of the natural environment is what level of damages can be avoided if natural assets are allowed to fulfil their role as buffers? Unfortunately, a lack of data on the relationship between buffers and damages makes this question very difficult to answer with confidence and it is best dealt with using likely scenarios (low, medium and high) based on the current understanding of links as outlined above. Given the similarities between the buffering of storm surges and the buffering of floods, it seems reasonable to assume that a similar portion of damages (between 5% and 40%) could be avoided with optimal use of natural assets (i.e. implementing the “least regrets” storm surge management options as outlined by Cartwright (2008)). Optimal use would translate into natural asset values between R2.6 million and R50.4 million per annum (see Table 4.16). Note that this is an estimate of potential future costs avoided with concerted action. 119 Table 4.16: Value of storm surge buffering by natural assets Summary points: storm surge mitigation • • • • Current understanding is that global warming, in conjunction with increased intensity and abbreviated return times of storms will give rise to periods (of about 1–4 hours) during which the “observed sea level” could be 1 to 15 meters higher than the current mean sea level leading to extensive flooding (Cartwright 2008). The likely damage costs associated with storm surges in Cape Town have been assessed at between R26.4 million and R63 million per year in terms of loss of real estate value, damage to infrastructure and foregone tourism revenue. High levels of uncertainty exist regarding the most appropriate solutions to risk minimisation. However, natural solutions and the use of existing natural assets offer sustainability advantages and are more likely to allow for the realisation of multiple benefits with “least regrets” when compared to engineering solutions. Damage and management costs avoided as a result of the optimisation of natural asset functions would range from R2.6 million to R50.4 million per annum. 4.5.4 Combined values associated with natural hazard regulation When combining the value of natural assets in natural hazard regulation for all three natural hazards (i.e. fire, floods and storm surges), total values of between R4.6 million and R60.4 million seem reasonable (see Table 4.17). Note that relatively high levels of uncertainty exist with regard to these predicted values and that more research is needed on the links between ecosystems and natural hazard regulation. However, enough is known about the links between the conservation and proper management of natural assets to make it clear that investment in these assets needs to be an integral part of disaster management. 120 Table 4.17: Consolidated value of natural assets in natural hazard regulation 4.6 Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation 6 Natural assets have significant value as purifiers and assimilators of waste, essentially acting as natural versions of built infrastructure such as ‘sewage outfalls’ and ‘water treatment plants’. As with built infrastructure, however, the natural environment can only cope with a certain maximum amount of waste or pollution before it becomes inefficient. At best, absorptive capacity will be impaired in these situations, but outright ecological infrastructure failure also becomes a distinct possibility. The services provided by the natural environment before maximum absorptive capacity is reached are essentially seen as free services. However, this is only a partial understanding of the situation. The natural environment needs to be properly managed and maintained (much like built infrastructure) in order for the services that flow from it to be optimised and to remain free. If this is not done, mini disasters or ecological infrastructure breakdowns become highly likely resulting in clean-up costs associated with repairing the ecological infrastructure. These costs are often substantially higher than the costs of proactive management. Aside from direct financial costs, these situations tend to introduce reputational and legal risks as the responsible authorities run the risk of being seen as derelict in their legal obligations and duties to their constituents. 4.6.1 Urban lakes: Multiple use amenities or malfunctioning waste dumps? In the Cape Town context, the situation with regard to urban lakes provides a clear illustration of the risks and false economies associated with allowing degradation to take hold. The metropolitan area encompasses a suite of urban lakes. These lakes, as distinct from wetlands, are considered to be bodies of water that have their water levels regulated or controlled by weirs. Many of these water bodies were previously shallow seasonal vleis or wetlands that have since been impounded for various reasons (generally recreation and/or hydraulic buffering), and which have become integral components of the urban catchment drainage system. 6 We acknowledge extensive inputs from Dr Bill Harding in writing this section. 121 In Cape Town, lakes such as Zeekoevlei, Princess Vlei, Paardevlei, Little Princess Vlei and Langvlei can all best be described as urban lakes. After several decades of regulation, the catchment areas of these lakes have developed substantially in line with urbanisation and population growth trends, resulting in ever-increasing loads of urban runoff being conveyed to them. Their impoundment, although creating a perennial water surface (lake), has resulted in substantially increased retention times and negligible flushing of accumulated sediments and pollutants. They now act as very effective waste and sediment traps and, over the years, have silted up and become increasingly eutrophic and are characterised by noxious, sometimes toxic algal blooms and a stunted biota (with significant foodweb destructuring and disturbance caused by pollution-tolerant species of biota such as common carp). In the case of Zeekoevlei, deliberate, ill-advised interventions such as the use of herbicides to remove submerged, rooted macrophytes, as a concession to recreational demands, accelerated the change in state from clear water to ‘pea-soup’ algal domination. In addition to impaired ecosystem health and reduced capacity to absorb additional wastes, dangerously low water quality constrains recreational uses and devalues lakeside properties. It is certainly a risk that will need to be dealt with if the False Bay Ecology Park, which would encompass Zeekoevlei, is to reach its potential (see section 4.3.5.2 for a discussion of this potential). Zandvlei, while also regulated, has largely escaped the problems faced by areas like Zeekoevlei. Zandvlei is an estuary for which the ecological value of maintaining tidal exchange and salinity has long been recognised and maintained by the City. Additionally, the ecological role and importance of retaining and maintaining the rooted macrophytes (pondweed) has been understood thereby supporting a suite of beneficial ecosystem services. The Zandvlei system, with its public awareness body, the Zandvlei Trust, was one of the first examples of integrated catchment management in the City. Cape Town also has two unregulated systems, these being Rietvlei and Wildevoëlvlei. Rietvlei is a large expanse of true wetland, albeit increasingly threatened by polluted flows from the Diep River and from surrounding urban development. Its downstream estuary, the Milnerton Lagoon, is negatively impacted by both the quality of the Diep River and wastewater effluent from the nearby Potsdam treatment works. Rietvlei, a naturally saline system with plant communities structured along gradients of soil salinity, is becoming increasingly fresher – with increased encroachment of weedy reed types such as Typha. Wildevoëlvlei, although without a weir, is effectively regulated and rendered aseasonal by the constant inflow (12–14 Ml per day) of highly-enriched wastewater effluent – such that the vlei is rendered little more than an extension of the maturation ponds of the adjacent treatment plant. 4.6.2 Towards value creation and cost minimisation The cause and effect pathways resulting in the present condition of Cape Town’s urban lakes have been clearly understood for many years, as have the solutions. Regrettably, this understanding has not been widely translated into the remediation of these waters. For example, the need to dredge Zeekoevlei (Cape Town’s largest open water expanse) has 122 been identified as a vital and necessary intervention, but still remains to be undertaken. Current estimates indicate that the necessary dredging of the vlei would cost R60 million– R70 million. This amount essentially represents the minimum clean-up costs that would be required to allow the vlei to function normally (i.e. provide for a balance between waste assimilation, ecosystem functioning and aesthetic and recreational benefits) and covert is from a liability that is probably dangerously close to its threshold. Once this clean-up is completed, significantly more cost-effective pro-active upstream catchment management can be applied to avoid a renewed build-up of waste that could once again impose further costs on society (i.e. loss of ecological, recreational, aesthetic and property values and, quite possibly, the costs of further rounds of dredging). Zeekoevlei provides a clear example of what mistakes to avoid if overall benefits are to be maximised at the lowest possible costs. An analysis of values at Zeekoevlei provides further support for action in the area. Jansen and Schulz (in prep.) have demonstrated that there is a significant willingness-to-pay among the residents of the low-income suburbs that surround the vlei for improved environmental quality. Aggregating over all households in these suburbs they found a willingness-to-pay of R4.9 million per annum for the clean-up of Zeekoevlei. It is important to stress that this result is based on local households only and is therefore conservative as it excludes visitors to the yacht club or potential tourists to the area. Jansen and Schulz (in prep.) point out that the outcomes of the study are not only optimistic in terms of support for an improved environment at Zeekoevlei, but also in terms of general support for improvements in low-income areas. By contrast with Zeekoevlei, Langvlei, which by the end of the 1980s was completely siltedup and overgrown with reeds, was dredged and restored to its present condition, but without the creation of an upstream silt interceptor. Paardevlei, similar in size to Princess Vlei and part of an industrial complex for roughly a century, was cleared of alien fish species and dredged of sediment in 2005/6 – a quick and relatively inexpensive exercise that has created a “clean slate” for the rehabilitated lake. Box 4.7 outlines the salient features of the City’s Policy for the Management of the Impacts of Urban Stormwater aimed at providing proactive, long-term, cost-effective solutions to the accumulation of wastes. Essentially, remediation of the existing conditions requires a combination of the following interventions: • Attenuate nutrient and pollutant loading to levels that are assimilable within the lake system. This requires both external (catchment) and in-lake sediment treatment or removal – and is often seen as a seemingly insurmountable and costly task – which, in fact, it is not. It simply requires a structured, informed approach. Firstly, the bulk of nutrient loads, from urban catchments, are borne by the silt conveyed to the vlei. Effective silt trapping en route to the lakes can negate as much as 80% of the pollutant loads. In cases where the loading originates from wastewater, such as for Wildevoëlvlei, the pollutant loads are largely dissolved and must be addressed by enhanced wastewater treatment. The balance needs to be addressed via catchment123 • • • • level management practices – not always easy but the product of many small gains can produce surprisingly positive reductions. Once the silt loading has been addressed, then the lake can be desludged, removing the internal nutrient loading problems, turbidity and loss of volume issues. With the silt now being trapped upstream of the lake, the lake’s lifespan – in terms of silt accretion – is now indefinitely extended. Seen against this timespan, the (amortized) costs of dredging, for example, pale into insignificance. Alleviate the hydrophysical constraints on the lake by allowing increased water exchange (flushing) during winter. This has been partially undertaken for Zeekoevlei but, in the absence of addressing other significant problems, has provided limited benefit. Restructure the biotic composition through deliberate removal of problem species, re-stocking where necessary and allowing highly desirable plant stabilisation to reestablish. The latter implies the growth of submerged pondweeds that are anathema to the yachting fraternity. However, as at Zandvlei, there is a management action that must be accepted and applied, namely the routine harvesting of aquatic plant stands so that they do not conflict with recreational activities. Adopt a future management programme based on applied limnology (informed lake management). The relationships between nutrient loading, lake hydrodynamics, lake biota and lake response need to be understood and adhered to for each particular lake. Box 4.7: City of Cape Town Management of Urban Stormwater Impacts Policy The central idea supporting this policy is that urban water bodies are valuable natural assets that rapidly deteriorate under the impacts of urbanisation (CCT 2009a). This results in myriad losses including lost aquatic ecosystems integrity and function, decreased biodiversity, reduced amenity value, the introduction of significant health risks, reduced water quality, diminished groundwater recharge and quality, degradation of stream channels, increased over bank flooding, and floodplain extension. These water bodies therefore require appropriate management, protection and enhancement. The policy aims to achieve this through: • improving and controlling the quality and rate of stormwater runoff, • minimising the impacts of stormwater from new developments on receiving waters, • preventing the further degradation of receiving waters by stormwater draining from existing developments, and • encouraging natural groundwater recharge. The policy recommends a “treatment train” approach – i.e. a combination of different methods implemented sequentially or concurrently. One of its fundamental principles is that the person or institution that initiates a development should ensure that it does not adversely impact on, and thereby decrease the value of, natural ecosystems. Specific measures aimed at ensuring the internalisation of environmental externalities at source are therefore introduced. 4.6.3 Knock-on effects of poor stormwater management Aside from the costs associated with poor stormwater management at the vleis outlined above, knock-on effects can extend to the sea although they are not as widely recognised. 124 The failure of Fish Hoek beach to attain Blue Flag status is a case in point. This beach has been a pilot Blue Flag beach for the past two Blue Flag seasons (2007/08 and 2008/09). The major challenge, however, is that there are three stormwater outlets within the designated swimming area and about four other outlets at locations around, and adjacent to, the swimming area. This situation has resulted in the swimming area being vulnerable to bathing water contamination caused by outflows of faecal and other pollution material into the swimming area. It has forced the City to abandon all plans to pursue Blue Flag accreditation for Fish Hoek beach and embark on a project to explore end-of-pipe treatment of water flowing out of stormwater pipes. This is an unfortunate and frustrating reality from the viewpoint of the Fish Hoek community as a whole and its tourism sector in particular, as they were looking forward to their beach attaining Blue Flag status. Summary points: waste treatment and assimilation • • • Natural assets like urban lakes and wetlands are part of the City’s ‘ecological infrastructure’ and need to be properly managed (much like built infrastructure) in order to optimise the valuable services that flow from them including waste treatment, absorption and others. If this is not done, ecological infrastructure breakdowns become highly likely resulting in clean-up and repair costs that are often substantially higher than the costs of proactive management. Zeekoevlei, for example, has been abused to the point where it can be argued that it is currently more of a liability than an asset requiring a clean-up costing between R60 million and R70 million for it to again function normally (i.e. provide for a balance between waste assimilation, ecosystem functioning, and aesthetic and recreational benefits). Once this clean-up is completed, significantly more cost-effective proactive upstream catchment management can be applied to avoid a renewed build-up of waste that could once again impose further costs on society. Clear lessons emerge when Zeekoevlei, and other degraded vleis generally associated with low functionality and high costs, are compared to well-managed vleis such as Zandvlei and Langevlei where proactive on-going management has kept costs to a minimum and created significant value. 4.7 Aesthetic values and sense of place Certain elements of natural landscapes, such as the presence of water, topographic variation and vegetation have repeatedly been associated with a high landscape preference and good scenic (aesthetic) value while built features and degraded landscapes have consistently been associated with low preferences (Low et al. 2007). Researchers also believe that there is a direct relationship between the ecological diversity and functioning of the landscape and perceived scenic beauty (Leopold 1949; Gobster, 1999). There can be little doubt that Cape Town possesses spectacular aesthetic features linked to its natural assets and that these features contribute to the unique sense of place in Cape 125 Town and the image of the City creating multiple significant value streams. At the risk of oversimplifying, these values primarily flow from their power (1) to attract people and businesses to Cape Town and (2) to enhance the people’s wellbeing while in Cape Town. This section focuses on the following key value streams that flow from aesthetic and sense of place values associated with Cape Town’s natural assets: • Enhanced health and wellbeing • Contribution to the Cape Town brand and an enhanced business environment • Benefits flowing to specific sectors: film and advertising • Property value enhancement 4.7.1 Enhanced health and wellbeing Most urban dwellers would agree that they enjoy experiencing the natural world, even if this simply means walking in a local park or driving to the coast on weekends. Even in the heart of the busiest city, this desire to connect with nature seems to be strong, as witnessed by the demand for green open spaces. A large body of research exploring people’s preferences for different types of landscape has consistently demonstrated that most people – people of different ages, socio-economic class, education, and cultural backgrounds – prefer natural environments to built urban environments (Zube 1983). This suggests at the very least that occurrence of natural assets in cities and suburbs can increase their aesthetic appeal and provide diversity of experiences in people’s everyday life. There is more than aesthetic enjoyment at stake: having contact with nature in a city has been shown to help us to live longer and in better health. Growing evidence suggests that woodlands, trees and natural and green spaces can play an important role in improving people's health and wellbeing (see O’Brien 2004 and Low et al. 2007). The evidence relates not only to people's physical use of woodlands and natural areas, but also to the emotional and psychological benefits that they derive from exploring and viewing these areas. For example, research by Berman et al. (2008) has shown that natural environments can restore people from mental fatigue and help children with attention deficit disorder. This work compared the restorative effects on cognitive functioning of interactions with natural versus urban environments and found that interactions with nature improved functioning. Field experiments have also shown the restorative effects of viewing natural and forest landscapes as opposed to urban landscapes. Viewing the former had significantly more positive impacts as measured in (1) salivary cortisol concentration (an index of stress response), (2) diastolic 7 blood pressure, and (3) pulse rate. Furthermore, participants felt more comfortable, soothed and refreshed when viewing a natural landscape (Lee et al. 2009). Other studies have shown that natural areas in close proximity to one’s home can result in lower levels of stress. Having views of natural vegetation – compared to having views dominated by buildings – has been associated with significantly increased neighbourhood satisfaction and wellbeing (Kaplan 1983). 7 The phase of the heartbeat when the heart relaxes and allows the chambers to fill with blood. 126 Although considered significant, the economic value of improved wellbeing in the City could not be established with current available sources of information. 4.7.2 Contribution to the Cape Town brand and an enhanced business environment Natural assets can make a significant contribution to urban quality of life which allows cities to attract skilled entrepreneurs and others that help to drive economic development. Cities such as Cape Town, with prominent natural features and amenities, can be branded as being more desirable than other less appealing cities that have been subjected to greater degradation. According to CRE (2009), a supportive entrepreneurial environment includes quality of life consideration. The simple point is made that entrepreneurship is about people and entrepreneurs choose to locate their businesses in places where they wish to live particularly within the context of higher rates of mobility. Communities that invest in quality of life infrastructure are thus more likely to attract entrepreneurs from outside the community and keep those who are home grown. Entrepreneur (2008) also affirms that research has proven that a higher quality of life plays a significant role in a city's ability to attract businesses and knowledgeable workers in search of a high quality of life. Earlier this year, Accelerate Cape Town facilitated a visioning process among local business leaders called Vision 2030. 8 Several hundred business, political, labour and other leaders were canvassed for their views on how the next 20 years should develop economically and on what a potential vision should be. The vision statement for the exercise was, “Africa’s Global City, a city of inspiration and innovation”. This recognises both Cape Town’s African identity as well as its global standing and according to Accelerate Cape Town’s CEO, Mr Lundy, “it suggests that we should be using our natural and human diversity, which inspires so many people, to develop and attract the world’s most creative thinkers and get them to develop global innovations from here” (CBN 2009). This suggests that the link between natural assets and the attraction of key human capital needed to drive economic development is well-recognised in the Cape Town business community. Recently it was also recognised by the City’s mayor that, “We must position Cape Town as the most innovative and committed city anywhere in addressing this long-term (environmental) challenge of critical global importance – possibly the most important single challenge facing our generation of citizens of the earth. And we do this not because it is a ‘nice to have’ or because it is currently fashionable. We have to do it because it is essential for our positioning as a great and prosperous city into the future. We have to do it because we are a caring, compassionate and responsible city that has a long-term vision for itself 8 Accelerate Cape Town is a business-led initiative aimed at bringing together stakeholders in the Cape Town region to develop and implement a long-term vision for sustainable, inclusive economic growth. 127 and acknowledges its global responsibilities and its obligations to future generations” (Zille 2007). Cape Town’s efforts towards creating a winning brand strongly linked to its environmental assets and the management of the environment have borne initial fruit in the form of awards that help to further reinforce its brand and attract more opportunities (see Box 4.8). However, much work and commitment is still needed if Cape Town is to truly capitalise on its natural assets in support of its brand. Gains have been made, but the City’s natural environment continues to come under increasing pressure as development accelerates and increasingly difficult trade-offs are required. There are many examples of risks for the brand such as those associated with being know for significant losses of globally important biodiversity (see section 4.4). This risk has the potential to make Cape Town better know for species losses than for being a biodiversity hotspot. Box 4.8: Awards bestowed on Cape Town for its quality of life The Mercer Quality of Living Survey 2008 voted Cape Town the ‘Best City To Live In for Africa & Middle East’. The Ethisphere Institute voted it ‘One of the World's Most Sustainable Cities’ in 2008 and it was given the ‘Cleanest City in South Africa’ award at the DEAT Annual Cleanest Metro Awards in 2007. At a more micro-scale, but nevertheless illustrative of quality of life in Cape Town, Boulder's Beach was voted the ‘World's Best Family Beach’ by the UK Telegraph in 2007. 4.7.3 Benefits flowing to specific sectors: the film and advertising industry The City of Cape Town has seen extraordinary growth in its film and advertising industry since the advent of democracy in South Africa. This growth continues with Cape Town already established as a top national and international film destination. According to the City’s film policy document, Cape Town offers key natural advantages to the film industry including (CCT 2004): • A vast diversity of natural and other locations within a small geographic area encompassing the natural and heritage beauty of the region. • Long daylight hours in summer, which is during the northern hemisphere winter, and in the same time zone as Europe. In addition, Cape Town offers first-world infrastructure, filming facilities and skills to complement its natural advantages. On the technology front, there are numerous worldclass media services groups offering comprehensive facilities and services to meet the preproduction, production and post-production needs of both domestic and international producers. The Cape Town film and advertising industry consists of the following areas of activity: • Still photography shoots • Commercial video shoots • Feature films 128 • • Television productions Video shoots (incl. documentary and direct-to-video productions) 4.7.3.1 Economic value of the film and advertising industry In 2007 the Cape Film Commission commissioned a strategic economic analysis of the Cape Town and Western Cape film industry (Standish & Boting 2007). Using data from the financial year July 2005 to June 2006, this analysis estimated the value of the film industry based on direct expenditure. It indicates that total expenditure in the Western Cape amounted to a significant R2.6 billion from roughly 2 730 productions of varying sizes. Cape Town expenditure was estimated at R2 billion or 77% of Western Cape expenditure. Table 4.18: Number of productions and expenditure in the Cape Town and Western Cape film industry (2005/2006) Number of productions Average expenditure Total per production (Rm expenditure 2006) (Rm 2006) Long form (features) 30 37.2 1 115.6 Local Commercials 142 0.9 162.5 Service Commercials 400 1.8 631.8 International Commercials 58 2.6 77.9 Stills 2 100 0.3 659.8 Provincial Total 2 730 Cape Town Total 2 647.6 2 027.0 Source: Standish & Boting (2007) 4.7.3.2 Filming and natural assets Discussions with key role players in the local industry provided confirmation that Cape Town’s many and varied natural assets provide extensive opportunities to the film and advertising industry. The city’s natural landscapes and features offer exceptional choices for easy and convenient film shoots. These scenic backdrops are enhanced by the moderate climate where long summer days and relatively mild winters offer extended shooting hours. Focusing on still productions, over the last ten years, Cape Town has grown to become one of the most popular global destinations. Cape Town’s summers have become synonymous with the remarkable number of international photographic shoots being conducted in the City. According to the South African Association of Stills Producers (SAASP), the success of Cape Town as a stills production destination can partly be attributes to its natural attributes including: • Locations: Alpine-like mountains and lakes, top-quality beaches or rugged rocky coastlines, fynbos, rolling wheatfields, vineyards and forests. 129 • Quality of the light: The sun shines fourteen hours a day at a time when it’s the middle of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Many artists who have worked here have commented on the extremely high quality of the light in Cape Town. The other film industry sectors (i.e. feature films, television, video and commercials) also use natural assets as important locations for filming although in a less focused way. Based on discussions with film and advertising industry role players (those in the industry and the authorities that regulate it), a range of estimates were generated for how much natural assets contribute to the package of advantages that draw productions and their associated spending to Cape Town. Based on these, it seems reasonable to conclude that 5% to 15% of total production expenditure can be linked to Cape Town’s natural assets (see Table 4.19). Taken together these percentages multiplied by current total expenditure (inflated to 2009 values from Standish and Boting (2007)) results in total values associated with natural assets of between R133 million and R398 million (see Table 4.19). Table 4.19: Value of natural assets in the film and advertising industry 4.7.4 Property value enhancement Cape Town boasts some of the most sought after property in the world. This largely relates directly to the amenity values associated with the City’s natural assets which are reflected in property prices. This mainly includes aesthetic or sense of place values primarily in the form of views and recreational values (e.g. easy access to world-class beaches and green open spaces). Although natural assets create value for all properties in Cape Town, they are generally better understood with local case studies. These include the significant values property value premiums created at Zandvlei and the Lower Silvermine River and discussed in section 4.3. To these one can add the values created by the rehabilitation of the Westlake River in Kirstenhof in which the landscaping of the area was improved, paths were laid, bridges and benches installed along with a play park for children. The river, the wetlands along its course and associated green belt areas dominate Kirstenhof due to the suburb’s small size and their position at the centre of the suburb. Van Zyl et al. (2004) estimated that 130 the recreational and aesthetic benefits of the project reflected in property value increases amounted to roughly R10.3 million whereas its costs were roughly R4.8 million yielding a significantly positive net present value (NPV) in the order of R5.5 million and an average benefit:cost ratio of 2.1:1. At a far broader scale, in their assessment of the economic contribution of Table Mountain National Park, Standish et al. (2004) investigated the impact of the Park on property values. They found that the Park has a profound influence on the overall property market and that it would be hard to hypothesise what the market would be like without it. It forms an intrinsic part of the balance between natural and developed area that Cape Town properties offer buyers. A Park view was cited as an undoubted value creator by all valuers and estate agents interviewed for the study. It was noted that the areas in the suburbs with the best views of the Park, and, to a somewhat lesser degree access to it, were the highest value areas. Agents also noted that for plots with good Park views it was almost impossible to over-capitalise on the building of a house whereas for plots with no or limited views overcapitalisation was something to be cautious of. While Standish et al. (2004) did not attempt to accurately estimate the impact of the Park on property values, they did provide some ‘back of the envelope’ estimates. First, they estimated a minimum total value of R100 billion for all residential property within, say, six kilometres of the Park. They then hypothesised that if one attributes only 5% of the total value of this property to the Park it would translate into a value of R5 billion. Of course this is a highly hypothetical scenario but it does illustrate the order of magnitude of the figures likely to be associated with this value stream. As discussed above and in section 4.3.5.1, the quality of management of natural areas is a major driver of values. Values primarily take their lead from the active management of aesthetic appeal, adequate facilities, cleanliness and security and if these factors are ignored, value destructions usually manifest. 4.8 Conclusion The valuation estimates in this chapter show that Cape Town’s natural assets provide highly significant flows of value as summarised in Table 4.20. These flows are critical to the success of key economic sectors in Cape Town, such as the tourism and film sectors, and give the City a strategic advantage by helping it to attract skilled entrepreneurs and others that drive economic development. They also provide residents and the municipality with recreational opportunities, health benefits, natural hazard regulation and other ecosystem services such as water purification and waste absorption all supported by a biodiversity ‘umbrella’ without parallel in any other city around the globe. Based on these prioritised services, total quantified values associated with natural assets in Cape Town were found to be between R1.5 billion and R3.9 billion per annum with a medium value of R2.6 billion per annum. This range of estimates should be treated as conservative given the number of important values that could be quantified in monetary 131 terms. In addition, most value streams have significant room for improvement. For instance, the availability of areas for the recreational use of natural assets are still severely limited particularly in lower income areas resulting in artificially low values at present. Natural assets form a key part of the Cape Town brand and are increasingly recognised as such. However, values are under threat from various sources such as encroaching developments, illegal dumping, littering and water pollution, the spread of invasive alien plants, etc. Increased management resources and effort will be crucial to value maintenance and, preferably, value enhancement. The state of urban lakes in the city provides clear lessons in this regard. Zeekoevlei, for example, has been degraded to the point where it can be argued that it is currently more of a liability than an asset requiring a costly clean-up for it to again function normally (i.e. provide for a balance between waste assimilation, ecosystem functioning, and aesthetic and recreational benefits). Once this clean-up is completed, and a costly lesson is learnt in the process, significantly more costeffective pro-active upstream catchment management can be applied. Aside from the generation of value estimates, the valuation exercise itself provided a number of key pointers. Primary among these is that, understanding the economic benefits of ecosystem services and attaching values to them requires sufficient knowledge of ecological systems in the first instance. Particularly when attaching values to natural hazard regulation and waste absorption functions, it became clear that more work is needed on understanding and quantifying the nature of the links between natural assets and benefits. Enhanced understanding of socio-economic systems and people’s preferences are also required if valuation accuracy and usefulness is to improve. It is especially difficult to judge whether responses to willingness-to-pay questions for specific outcomes (such as the improved quality of the natural environment) are reasonable without a comprehensive understanding of people’s willingness-to-pay for other alternative outcomes or resource uses (e.g. improved health care, education, etc.). 132 Travel cost and entry fees paid at city-wide scale. Travel cost, entry fees paid and contingent valuation at city-wide scale. Emphasise support for other EGS values, convey global importance using indicators. Linked buffering capacity of natural assets to reduced costs associated with natural hazards. Clean-up costs, damage costs avoided using selected wetlands as case studies. Tourism Recreation Globally important biodiversity Natural hazard regulation of fire, floods and storm surge Water purification and waste treatment, assimilation Environment Valuation al Goods and techniques/approach used Services and scale of application categories - - - - - - - - - The natural environment needs to be properly managed and maintained (much like built infrastructure) in order for the purification and absorption services that flow from it to be optimised and to remain ‘free’. E.g. the need to dredge Zeekoevlei for R60–R70 million represents the minimum clean-up costs needed to allow the vlei to function normally (i.e. balance waste assimilation, ecosystem functioning, aesthetics and recreation). Once this clean-up is completed, significantly more costeffective pro-active upstream catchment management can be applied. Natural hazards are associated with significant damage and management costs some of which could be avoided with the optimal management of natural assets as buffers. Combined total values of between R4.6 million and R60.4 million per annum for natural assets in natural hazard regulation for all three natural hazards (i.e. wildfires, floods and storm surge). Biodiversity needs to be recognised and valued as a critical ‘umbrella’ service without which most other valuable ecosystems services would be diminished or may even become unavailable. Donor funding of R225 million has flowed to the region in recognition of the international importance of its biodiversity. If one considers the biodiversity within the City’s boundaries it can convincingly be argued that Cape Town is the most important city in the world from a biodiversity conservation perspective. However, threats are highly significant. Local recreational values for local green open spaces (incl. City nature reserves), Table Mountain National Park, Kirstenbosch and local beaches: R407 million and R494 million per annum. Significant additional value creation possible when considering the limited availability areas for recreation (particularly in lower income areas) and current resources for management. Natural assets are Cape Town’s key offering that attracts tourists. Total tourism value associated with natural assets: R965 million to R2.95 billion per annum. Estimated value and other indicators of value Table 4.20: Summary of values associated with natural assets in Cape Town 133 Aesthetic and sense of place related values : Enhanced health and wellbeing Contribution to the Cape Town brand and business environment Benefits flowing to specific sectors: film and advertising Property value enhanceme nt - - - - Reference to empirical research on the natural environment and health Outline links between natural branding and business advantages Apportion economic benefits of the film industry to natural attractions. Hedonic valuations used to highlights links between natural assets and property values. - - - - - Growing empirical evidence shows that natural and green spaces play an important role in improving health and wellbeing in cities. Key leaders in Cape Town recognise that the City’s natural assets give it a strategic advantage and help it to attract skilled entrepreneurs and others that drive economic development. Cape Town’s efforts towards creating a winning brand strongly linked to its natural assets and environment custodianship have borne initial fruit in the form of awards that help to attract more opportunities. Risks to this brand, however, remain. Cape Town’s many and varied natural assets provide extensive opportunities to the film and advertising industry and are one of its key drivers valued at between R133 million and R398 million per annum. Cape Town boasts some of the most sought after property on a global scale largely because of its natural assets. At a site specific scale, rehabilitation and restoration projects have created significant values with benefits exceeding costs by a factor of four in some cases. 134 How much is 1996 a clean beach worth? The impact of litter on beach users in the Cape Peninsula asset and EGS beneficiaries flows that of flows that were valued were included any any valuation reference to reference to method(s) development risks applied objectives (ecological and city's as well as mandate and socioability to cultural) influence addressed and managed Ballance A, To estimate the Recreational Residents, In 1994 four Risks to Travel cost Ryan PG and deterrent effect of use value for domestic and of the ten tourism method Turpie JK litter on Cape the following foreign dirtiest numbers and Town beaches beaches: tourists beaches were revenues as a Blouberg and in the City of result of Milnerton, Sea Cape Town unhygienic Point, Clifton, area. beaches Camps Bay, Llandudno, Fish Hoek, Muizenberg, Monwabisi and Strandfontein objectives of study 8.6 17.30 Values results at time (2008 R of study million) (R million) Summary information on valuation studies conducted in Cape Town name of the year of authors of study values study Appendix 4.1: 135 Annual value. The annualised value for all beaches in the Cape Peninsula was conservatively estimated at R18 million. However, a sensivity analysis was adopted by the author as a result of the assumptions inherent in the travel cost method, and because not all data was available or accurate. This resulted in a range of annualised values for the Cape Peninsula of between 9 and 50 million (1996 prices). comments Multi-criteria decisionmaking for water resource management in the berg water management area Multi-criteria decisionmaking for water resource management in the berg water management area Environment, urban development & crime establishing the value of a freshwater lake in an urban setting: the case of Zeekoevlei ?? Year Jansen A & of Schulz C-E househo ld census values2001 De Lange, W To provide a platform on which decision-makers involved in management around WSM can base decisions 2005 Water supply options Residential water users in CCT, and parts of West Coast, Boland and Overberg municipalities Impacts on river flow, waste disposal and dilution effect, ground water recharge, flood and erosion control, loss in biodiversity aims to show that Willingness to Residents in City's public pay for suburbs budgetary environmental improvements surrounding process goods are in the vlei (Lotus discussed. beneficial to environmental River, Grassy society andshould quality at Park, Pelican receive due Zeekoevlei, Park, consideration in Cape Flats Peninsula, the spending Zeekoevlei) activities of local governments De Lange, W Determine public preferences for future expansion of water management strategies 2005 Crime, pollution, migration Contingent valuation modified delphi technique applied on panel of experts Conjoint analysis 7.00 ?? 136 Annual value (excludes Peninsula surburb). Own extrapolation. Values probably wrong due to differences between dates for census values and (unknown) date of valuation work. Does not quantify environmental values in monetary terms Does not quantify environmental values in monetary terms A Status Quo, 2002 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socioeconomic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape Valuing the 2007 Provisioning Services of Wetlands: Contrasting A Rural Wetland In Lesotho With A PeriUrban Wetland In Cape Town. To compare livestock, crops Local users of wetland uses in a Mfuleni diverse range of Wetland geographic, socioeconomic and landuse settings. To assess the relative dependency of communities living around these wetlands on the wetland provisioning services to subsidise their livelihoods. Midgley, G.F., Domestic fuel Greater City Chapman, burning, of Cape Town R.A., vehicles, residents Hewitson, B., industry and Johnston, P., commercial, de Wit, M., power Ziervogel, G., generation Mukheibir, P., van Niekerk, L., Tadross, M., van Wilgen, B.W., Kgope, B., Morant, P.D., Theron, A., Scholes, R.J., Forsyth, G.G. Lannas, K. 3.83 Climate risks Cost of illness 928.90 such as method beach erosion and flood risks, investment decisions, health risks, fishing time impacts Direct use 1317.66 4.06 Annual value 137 Pierre an overarching Mukheibir and framework for a Gina City-wide Ziervogel consolidated and (ERC, UCT) coordinated approach to reducing vulnerability to climate impacts. Pierre an overarching Mukheibir and framework for a Gina City-wide Ziervogel consolidated and (ERC, UCT) coordinated approach to reducing vulnerability to climate impacts. Framework 2001 for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Cape Town Framework 2001 for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Cape Town Damage to Muizenberg, False Bay following a 1 m sea level rise Damage to Woodbridge Island, Milnerton following a 1 m sea level rise Residential Describes list property in of legislation Muizenberg, relevant and estimated at international 40 properties obligations to being affected Framework at an average of R500,000 per house Residential Describes list property in of legislation Woodbridge relevant and Island, international estimated at obligations to between half Framework and all the 350 residential properties being affected at an average of R750,000 per house Current and future climate risks discussed. Infrastructure for monitoring disaster risks also highlighted. Mitigation measures, paticularly in relation to floods and fires discussed. Current and future climate risks discussed. Infrastructure for monitoring disaster risks also highlighted. Mitigation measures, paticularly in relation to floods and fires discussed. Replacement 20.00 cost Replacement 131 cost 263 30.07 197-395 Property value Property value 138 Operational costs and project costs to test and apply Parks, the tools of sportsfields, environmental and natural resource vegetation, economics to vacant lands, derive local values wetlands, for open space agricultural goods and fields services in selected study areas Turpie J and To estimate the Class of 1998 existence value and willingness to pay to prevent overdevelopment of the Cape Penninsula National park A Preliminary 1998 economic assessment of the Cape Peninsula National Park: Use, values, public preferences & financing Valuation of 2001 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Standish B, To estimate the Boting A, van economic Zyl H, Leiman contribution of A, and Turpie Table Mountain J National park The 2004 Economic Contribution of Table Mountain National Park Metro South Tradeoffs (whole area) between conservation and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process Contingent valuation Direct expenditure Effect of crime Contingent and valuation cleanliness on park values assessed City of Cape Security or Town fire risk for historically properties one of the bordering the major funders park of the Park with its contribution accounting for 22% of all income between 1999 and 2003. Population of Serves to Cape justify Peninsula government expenditure in maintenance of park National economy (GDP) 7.96 115.00 61.10 11.97 205.95 57.00 Annual value 139 Annual value. Far in excess of the R35 million pa required to manage the park. Hedonic pricing study and recreational demand study using travel cost method also included. 2008 value as projected by study Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Valuation of 2001 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2001 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2001 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. to test and apply Wetland the tools of (Zandvlei) environmental and resource economics to derive local values for open space goods and services in selected study areas to test and apply Wetland the tools of (Zandvlei) environmental and resource economics to derive local values for open space goods and services in selected study areas to test and apply Parks, the tools of sportsfields, environmental and natural resource vegetation, economics to vacant lands, derive local values wetlands, for open space agricultural goods and fields services in selected study areas Local users Local users Metro South East (whole area) Tradeoffs between conservation and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process Tradeoffs between conservation and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process Tradeoffs between conservation and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process Effect of crime Travel cost and method cleanliness on park values assessed Effect of crime Contingent and valuation cleanliness on park values assessed Effect of crime Contingent and valuation cleanliness on park values assessed 0.70 0.64 15.81 1.05 0.96 23.77 Annual value Annual value Annual value 140 Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Valuation of 2001 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2001 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2000 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Local users Tradeoffs between conservation and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process to test and apply Wetland (river) Residents in Tradeoffs the tools of neighbouring between environmental and areas (3.3 ha) conservation resource and economics to development derive local values discussed on for open space the basis of goods and possible services in impact of selected study economic areas valuation on the budgetary process to test and apply Park Residents in Tradeoffs the tools of neighbouring between environmental and areas (1.3ha) conservation resource and economics to development derive local values discussed on for open space the basis of goods and possible services in impact of selected study economic areas valuation on the budgetary process to test and apply Wetland the tools of (Zandvlei) environmental and resource economics to derive local values for open space goods and services in selected study areas Effect of crime Hedonic and pricing cleanliness on park values assessed Effect of crime Hedonic and pricing cleanliness on park values assessed Effect of crime Hedonic and pricing cleanliness on park values assessed 0.98 1.35 84.25 1.56 2.03 126.68 141 Property value (PV) Property value (PV) Property value (PV) Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Valuation of 2000 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2000 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2000 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. to test and apply Wetland the tools of (whole) environmental and resource economics to derive local values for open space goods and services in selected study areas to test and apply Vacant land the tools of environmental and resource economics to derive local values for open space goods and services in selected study areas to test and apply Sportsfield the tools of environmental and resource economics to derive local values for open space goods and services in selected study areas Residents in Tradeoffs neighbouring between areas (8.3 ha) conservation and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process Residents in Tradeoffs neighbouring between areas (43.2 conservation ha) and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process Metro South Tradeoffs (whole area) between conservation and development discussed on the basis of possible impact of economic valuation on the budgetary process -1.90 1.17 Effect of crime Replacement 136.80 and cost cleanliness on park values assessed Effect of crime Hedonic and pricing cleanliness on park values assessed Effect of crime Hedonic and pricing cleanliness on park values assessed 218.04 -3.03 1.86 Capital value 142 Property value (PV) Property value (PV) Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Turpie J, Joubert A, van Zyl H, Harding B, Leiman A. Valuation of 2000 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2000 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. Valuation of 2000 Open Space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. A. Valuation of open space in the Cape Metropolitan Area. to test and apply Wetland (water Metro South Tradeoffs Effect of crime Replacement 481.00 the tools of storage and (whole area) between and cost environmental and purification conservation cleanliness on resource functions) and park values economics to development assessed derive local values discussed on for open space the basis of goods and possible services in impact of selected study economic areas valuation on the budgetary process to test and apply Wetland Metro South Tradeoffs Effect of crime Replacement 102.00 the tools of (whole) East (whole between and cost environmental and area) conservation cleanliness on resource and park values economics to development assessed derive local values discussed on for open space the basis of goods and possible services in impact of selected study economic areas valuation on the budgetary process to test and apply Wetland (water Metro South Tradeoffs Effect of crime Replacement 12.00 the tools of storage and East (whole between and cost environmental and purification area) conservation cleanliness on resource functions) and park values economics to development assessed derive local values discussed on for open space the basis of goods and possible services in impact of selected study economic areas valuation on the budgetary process 19.13 162.57 766.64 Capital value Capital value Capital value 143 van Zyl, H. van Zyl, H. van Zyl, H. Property Price 2004 Approaches to the Valuation of Urban Wetlands: Theoretical Consideration s and Policy Implications. Property Price 2004 Approaches to the Valuation of Urban Wetlands: Theoretical Consideration s and Policy Implications. Property Price 2004 Approaches to the Valuation of Urban Wetlands: Theoretical Consideration s and Policy Implications. Property values of Aesthetic and Westlake river recreational rehabilitation in benefits Kirstenhof Residents To determine the Aethetic,recreat Residents value of properties ional benefits had the Kuils river and flood remained control benefits rehabilitated To estimate the Aethetic,recreat Residents impact of ional benefits rehabilitation of the and flood lower silvermine control benefits river Risks of fires Hedonic and security pricing (mainly alien vegetation), risk of river flooding although wetlands can mitigate. Human health risks of degraded wetlands Municipality Risks of fires Hedonic legally and security pricing required to (mainly alien reduce flood vegetation), risk risk of river flooding although wetlands can mitigate. Human health risks of degraded wetlands Municipality Risks of fires Hedonic legally and security pricing required to (mainly alien reduce flood vegetation), risk risk of river flooding although wetlands can mitigate. Human health risks of degraded wetlands Municipality legally required to reduce flood risk 10.30 2.90 45.40 13.00 3.66 57.32 144 Present value of benefit (6 percent discount rate) Present value of benefit (6 percent discount rate) Present value of benefit (6 percent discount rate) Water 2007 services development plan for the City of Cape Town 2008/09 - 2012/13 Water and Financial Water supply Water users sanitation sustainability of infrastructure in City of department of the service; (dams & Cape Town CCT and ensuring full cost catchments, Amanzi Obom recovery and debt treatment Consulting management at a works, water CC fair tariff, and reticulation, financing of capital water pump investment; fulfill stations, key policy and reservoirs, legislative depots); requirements Wastewater infrastructure (WW treatment works, sewer reticulation, sewer pump stations, depots) "The problem Safety, Replacement 22132.0 23459.92 Capital value in the city is occupational cost 0 not the health (e.g. absence of HIV/AIDS/ TB/ economic EAP growth, but programmes), the failure to risk of harmonize pollution to economic and stormwater social system, development capital objectives, to investment to ensure the reduce supply benefits of risk economic progress reach the population as a whole, and to ensure the benefits of economic progress reach the population as a whole." 145 Study to Examine the Potential SocioEconomic Impact of Measures to Reduce Air Pollution from Combustion 2002 Yvonne Scorgie, Gillian Paterson, Lucian Burger, Harold Annegarn, Melanie Kneen To investigate the social and economic implications of the phasing out of 'dirty fuels' within South Africa. Source group: City of Cape Domestic fuel Town burning (Coal residents burning, Wood burning, Other fuel), Vehicles (Petrol, Diesel), Industry & commercial, Power generation Over 90 Cost of illness 928.90 percent of method (total health cost cost of relate to the respiratory cost of conditions, of respiratory non-fatal conditions, paraffin with the poisonings, of majority burns, total (80%) of cancer costs) respiratory ailments resulting in increased hospitalisation due to domestic wood burning. 1317.66 146 journey in 3.50 25 R3 R12 72% 23% 5% 100% 40% 2% 16% 42% 100% 66% 9% 25% 100% 650 000 R32 R10 83% 17% Entry fees paid per group per yr Capetonians R 7 347 600 Western Cape R 367 380 Rest of SA R 2 939 040 International R 7 714 980 Group size car Group size bus Cost/km car Cost/km bus Transport mode Car Bus Walk and other Visitor origin Capetonians Western Cape Rest of SA International Return km 15 30 50 Total visitors per yr Adult entry Child entry Adults Children R 11 638 568 R 862 116 R 6 896 929 R 23 708 195 72% 23% 5% 100% 27% 2% 16% 55% 100% 66% 9% 25% 100% 837 006 R60 R10 83% 17% R 22 272 775 R 2 024 798 R 23 285 174 R 53 657 141 84% 6% 10% 100% 22% 2% 23% 53% 100% 64% 20% 16% 100% 759 660 R145 R76 83% 17% Kirstenbosc Cape of Good Cable way h Hope R 5 582 176 R 310 121 R 1 705 665 R 7 908 083 84% 6% 10% 100% 36% 2% 11% 51% 100% 80% 6% 14% 100% 582 934 R30 R10 83% 17% Boulders Based on data from 2007/2008 visitor survey - SANParks (2008) R 540 583 R 13 026 R 32 565 R 65 131 84% 6% 10% 100% 83% 2% 5% 10% 100% 82% 7% 11% 100% 125 251 R5 R5 87% 13% Tokai R 678 145 R 16 341 R 40 852 R 81 704 84% 6% 10% 100% 83% 2% 5% 10% 100% 82% 7% 11% 100% 58 780 R15 R5 87% 13% R 33 557 R809 R 2 022 R 4 043 84% 6% 10% 100% 83% 2% 5% 10% 100% 82% 7% 11% 100% 7 775 R5 R5 87% 13% R 75 198 R 1 812 R 4 530 R 9 060 84% 6% 10% 100% 83% 2% 5% 10% 100% 82% 7% 11% 100% 6 518 R15 R5 87% 13% Silvermine Perdekloof Oudekraal R 51 491 R 1 241 R 3 102 R 6 204 84% 6% 10% 100% 83% 2% 5% 10% 100% 82% 7% 11% 100% 6 496 R10 R5 87% 13% Newlands R0 R0 R0 R0 84% 6% 10% 100% 83% 2% 5% 10% 100% 82% 7% 11% 100% R0 R0 R0 R0 81% 2% 17% 100% 78% 2% 4% 16% 100% 85% 7% 8% 100% R0 R0 R0 R0 78% 4% 18% 100% 95% 3% 1% 1% 100% 86% 7% 7% 100% 147 R 48 220 094 R 3 597 643 R 34 909 879 R 93 154 540 Other Other High Other Low use Medium use TOTAL Use sites sites sites 818 920 256 281 132 789 4 242 410 R0 R0 R0 R0 R0 R0 87% 90% 84% 13% 10% 16% Appendix 4.2: Detailed Calculation of travel and entry costs for TMNP sites and Kirstenbosch R 10 756 786 R 516 326 R 11 273 111 R 2 480 084 R 225 462 R 2 592 816 R 5 974 749 R 11 273 111 Travel costs per origin group: Capetonians R 4 076 699 R 3 543 461 Western Cape R 203 835 R 262 479 Rest of SA R 1 630 680 R 2 099 829 International R 4 280 534 R 7 218 161 TOTAL R 10 191 747 R 13 123 929 182 318 1 823 R 2 744 718 R 152 484 R 838 664 R 3 888 351 R 7 624 217 R 7 275 016 R 349 201 R 7 624 217 139 904 1 399 R 101 239 888 R 15 506 044 R 8 390 571 R 10 804 552 R 1 801 176 R 2 319 377 R 10 191 747 R 13 123 929 Total travel costs car bus TOTAL 172 184 7 700 R 18 369 000 R 43 105 809 Number of vehicles per year car 133 714 bus 5 980 TOTAL 14 107 141 1 866 19 R 817 042 R 40 430 R 1 300 843 R 31 346 R 78 364 R 156 728 R 1 567 281 R 610 483 R 14 710 R 36 776 R 73 552 R 735 521 R 80 750 R 1 946 R 4 864 R 9 729 R 97 290 R 1 495 497 R 701 833 R 92 834 R 71 784 R 33 688 R 4 456 R 1 567 281 R 735 521 R 97 290 30 060 301 R 651 305 R 67 695 R 1 631 R 4 078 R 8 156 R 81 561 R 77 825 R 3 736 R 81 561 1 564 16 R 90 600 R 67 467 R 1 626 R 4 064 R 8 129 R 81 285 R 77 562 R 3 723 R 81 285 1 559 16 R 62 037 59 311 205 R0 29 593 212 R0 R 8 505 213 R 204 945 R 512 362 R 1 024 724 R 10 247 244 R 2 216 288 R 56 828 R 113 656 R 454 623 R 2 841 396 R 1 345 050 R 42 475 R 14 158 R 14 158 R 1 415 842 R 9 777 905 R 2 795 019 R 1 368 675 R 469 339 R 46 377 R 47 167 R 10 247 244 R 2 841 396 R 1 415 842 196 541 1 965 R0 148 R 27 038 751 R 1 199 767 R 7 930 311 R 23 111 594 R 59 280 424 R 53 614 075 R 5 666 349 R 59 280 424 962 722 19 777 R 179 882 156 Appendix 4.3: Additional options to respond to sea level rise in the City of Cape Town Additional options Physical options • Beach nourishment • Sea walls • Groynes • Barrages and barriers • Raising infrastructures level • Revetment, rock armour, dolosse and gabions • Off-shore reef • Water pumps • Beach drainage Biological options • Dunes cordons • Estuaries and wetlands rehabilitation • Kelp beds Institutional responses • Vulnerability mapping • Risk communication • Apply legislation • Apply a coastal buffer zone • Prevent sand mining • Favour research and monitoring • Early warning systems • Insurance market correction Source: Cartwright (2008) 149 Chapter 5: An analysis of expenditure patterns related to the environment for the City of Cape Town Lead author: Doug Crookes with contributions from Martin de Wit 5.1 Introduction This chapter reports on an analysis of the City of Cape Town’s expenditure on natural assets and operations, both from a historical perspective (budget versus actual expenditure for the 2004/5 to 2008/9 budget years) as well as forward projections of expenditure (until 2011/12). The total city budget is classified in terms of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Government Finance Statistics (GFS) Code, wherein departmental line functions are also allocated (for a detailed classification of functions in terms of GFS Code, see Appendix 5.1). In order to understand which departments are expending money on natural assets within the City of Cape Town, the following line functions were identified: • Community Development (City Parks, Sports and Recreation) • Economic and Social Development (Tourism Development) • City Health (Environmental Health) • Strategy and Planning, specifically: o Spatial Planning and Urban Design o Planning and Building Development Management (formerly town planning) • Transport, Roads and Stormwater: o Roads and Stormwater (includes Catchment Management) o Transport • Utility Services: o Electricity Services o Solid Waste Services o Water Services In addition to this, expenditure in the Environmental Management department and its three cost centres (Environment and heritage management, Environmental head office and Nature conservation) were also included. 150 In addition to the broadly defined Sectors with Environmental Expenditure (SEE), the project adopts a definition of the environment within these sectors based on realistic environmental expenditure (REE). Percentages used are as follows: GFS 03 (12.5%); GFS 05 (2.5%); GFS 08 (25%); GFS 09 (100%); GFS 10 (solid waste: 2.5%; waste water management 5%); GFS 11 (1%); GFS 12 (2.5%); GFS 13 (1%); GFS 14 (10%). The Access database we were provided with contained 173 344 records, which included both income and expenditure items. In order to analyse the data we extracted all the items with an I-E code of E (expenditure), and further sorted the data by two digit GFS code and then by line function. In some cases there were large negative expenditure items in the dataset, for example interaccount transfers. We report the figures as we find them without making allowance for these negative values. The result is that some GFS sub-functions report negative totals (see, for example, operational expenditure related to water and also electricity). We compared the Access data (approved budget) with the provisional budget for 2009/10 as reported in the City News. The Access database was approximately 22 percent higher than the budget tabled in the City News. The total capital expenditure figures were also slightly higher than those reported in the City News (R6.2 billion in 2009/10 budget compared with R5.5 billion). According to City officials the difference is due to the inclusion of so-called secondary price elements in the Access database (internal charges). While it is possible to exclude these figures from the analysis we include them as we were advised that they provide a more accurate picture of the City’s expenditure patterns. 151 5.2 Capital expenditure (CAPEX) 5.2.1 Capital expenditure in absolute values (R million) 5.2.1.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection The bulk of the capital expenditure in the pollution control function is on air pollution monitoring (2005/6 budget year) and pollution control equipment (2006/7, 2008/9, 2009/10 budget years). The capital expenditure in the biodiversity and landscape function is largely expenditure on activities related to the maintenance, upgrade and operation of city nature reserves. Capital expenditure on environmental protection was just under R5 million in the 2007/8 budget year. Capital expenditure (R million) GFS 09: Environmental protection 2004/5 0.7 2005/6 2.8 2006/7 3.0 2007/8 4.6 Overall capital expenditure for environmental protection is expected to peak at just under R10 million in the 2008/9 budget year. 152 5.2.1.2 Other SEE capital expenditure 5.2.1.2.1 GFS 03 – Planning and development The capital expenditure on sectors with environmental expenditure within the planning and development function is relatively low. Within this function only three departments are regarded as having environmental expenditure, namely: Spatial Planning and Urban Design, Planning and Building Development Management, and Environmental Resource Management. Actual expenditure remains constant at around R30 million, although budgeted expenditure is much higher than this. 153 5.2.1.2.2 GFS 05 – Community and social services Capital expenditure on parks includes GFS 0504 (cemeteries and crematoriums) and GFS 0507 (other community). Sport, recreation and amenities within this function includes GFS 0501 (libraries and archives), GFS 0502 (museums and art galleries), GFS 0503 (community halls and facilities), and GFS 0508 (other social). 154 5.2.1.2.3 GFS 08 – Sport and recreation SEE expenditure on sport and recreation (which includes community parks (incl. nurseries), sports grounds and stadiums (excl. expenditure related to the soccer world cup), swimming pools, beaches, lakes, dams and jetties for recreation, camping sites, etc.) has remained fairly constant at levels around R100 million. 155 5.2.1.2.4 GFS 10 – Solid waste management Actual capital expenditure on solid waste management has more than doubled since 2005/6, from just under R40 million in 2004/5 to over R110 million in 2007/8. Solid waste services are expected to receive a significant capital injection in the 2009/10 budget and the 2011/12 budget. Capital expenditure is expected to range from R350 to R450 million over this period. 156 5.2.1.2.5 GFS 10 – Waste water management Capital expenditure on water services, which include GFS 1001 (sewerage) and GFS 1004 (no split total), is the dominant capital expenditure item within this function. Roads and Stormwater (GFS 1002) and Sport, Recreation and Amenities (GFS 1003 – public toilets) are almost negligible. SEE Capital expenditure (R million) 2004/5 GFS 10: Waste water management 73.9 2005/6 107.6 2006/7 145.8 2007/8 271.5 Budgeted capital expenditure for water services increased by more than five time from an average of approximately R100 million in 2004/5 to peaking at over R550 million in the 2009/10 budget period. The main expense involve the development of landfill infrastructure at an average capital expenditure of between R278 and R300 million per annum over three years. 157 5.2.1.2.6 GFS 11 – Road transport Road transport includes GFS 1101 and 1106 (roads and stormwater), GFS 1101 and 1106 (transport) and GFS 1106 (TRS corporate). Actual expenditure on road transport reached a high of just under R360 million in 2007/8. SEE Capital expenditure (R million) 2004/5 GFS 11: Road transport 205.6 2005/6 292.7 2006/7 255.5 2007/8 359.7 Roads and stormwater is expected to receive a significant capital investment of between R915 and over R1 300 million between 2009/10 and 2011/12. 158 5.2.1.2.7 GFS 12 – Water Water services comprise GFS 1201 (water distribution), GFS 1202 (water storage) and an unallocated portion (GFS 1204). The latter has decreased notably since 2005/6. SEE Capital expenditure (R million) 2004/5 GFS 12: Water utilities 90.8 2005/6 263.5 2006/7 184.6 2007/8 210.3 The main reason for the almost threefold increase in the water services capital budget between 2010/11 and 2011/12 is the proposed development of additional water storage infrastructure which involves a capital cost of R351.5 million in 2010/11 and R409 million in 2011/12. 159 5.2.1.2.8 GFS 13 – Electricity Electricity services comprise GFS 1301 (distribution), GFS 1302 (generation), GFS 1303 (street lighting) and GFS 1305 (unallocated). Capital expenditure on distribution costs are the major cost item in this function. SEE Capital expenditure (R million) 2004/5 GFS 13: Electricity 168.1 2005/6 271.0 2006/7 327.5 2007/8 539.0 160 5.2.1.2.9 GFS 14 – Tourism development The budgeted tourism capital expenditure peaked in the 2004/5 budget year at R6 million, although actual expenditure was much lower (around R 2.6 million), with 2006/7 expenditure a mere R200 000. 161 5.2.1.3 Total capital expenditure Actual capital expenditure related to Sectors with Environmental Expenditure (SEE) exceeds CAPEX on non-SEE sectors. Total SEE expenditure was R1.67 billion in the 2007/8 budget period. The total capital budget is expected to increase steadily between 2007/8 and 2009/10, thereafter levelling off at around R4 billion in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 financial year. 162 5.2.2 Capital expenditure as percentage of total budget 5.2.2.1 2004/5 Budget Road transport received the bulk of the capital expenditure in environment related departments in 2004/5 (more than 25% of budget summing across all sub-functions) followed by electricity with around 15%. 5.2.2.2 2005/6 Budget Non-environmental capital expenditure was originally budgeted to be almost 50% of the total budget in the 2005/6 financial year. However, actual expenditure was much lower (approximately 25% of the budget). 163 5.2.2.3 2006/7 Budget In this budget, non-SEE expenditure increased sharply, mostly related to expenditure on the 2010 Soccer World Cup. Road transport and sport and recreation were under budget. 5.2.2.4 2007/8 Budget The non-SEE component has now risen to 45% of the budget, of which 30% is attributable to the 2010 Soccer World Cup. 164 5.2.2.5 2008/9 Budget Capital expenditure on the 2010 Soccer World Cup is expected to peak in this financial year, with non-SEE expenditure at more than 50% of the total budget. Waste management and electricity services are expected to receive less than originally budgeted, along with water storage and spatial planning and urban development. 5.2.2.6 Budget forecast: 2009/10–2011/12 Road transport (roads and stormwater) and electricity distribution is expected to have an increasing share of the total budget over the next three years. Capital expenditure related to environmental protection (health services as well as environmental resource management) is expected to be almost negligible. 165 5.2.3 Capital expenditure as a percentage of city line function 5.2.3.1 GFS 09 – Environmental Protection The Environmental Resource Management (ERM) department utilised the bulk (between 60% and 95%) of the capital allocation to environmental protection, mainly for activities related to the protection of biodiversity and landscapes (GFS 0902). The share of city health (GFS 0901 – pollution control), however, has declined. The proportion of the approved capital budget allocated to ERM in 2010/11 and 2011/12 is slightly down compared with the 2009/10 year. 166 5.2.3.2 Other SEE capital expenditure 5.2.3.2.1 GFS 03 – Planning and development The share of planning and building development management to total capital expenditure in GFS 03 has fallen from just over 30% to approximately 10% between 2004/5 and 2007/8. ERM on the other hand has grown from a low base. The non-SEE component has fluctuated, peaking in 2005/6 at 50% of the budget in this line function. Capital expenditure in the spatial planning and urban design sub-function makes up the highest contribution to the line function (between approximately 20% and 55%). Its relative contribution has and is expected to continue to increase over time. 167 5.2.3.2.2 GFS 05 – Community and social services Park expenditure receives the highest injection of capital in the community and social services function. Non-SEE expenditure in GFS 05 exceeded the parks budget in 2005/6. Sport and recreation is expected to receive solid capital investment in the run-up to the 2010 Soccer World Cup. 168 5.2.3.2.3 GFS 08 – Sport and recreation The non-SEE component of the sports and recreational line function (GFS 08) dominates capital expenditure from the 2006/7 budget until the end of 2011/12. 5.2.3.2.4 GFS 10 – Solid waste management This is not applicable since there is only one sub-function/department present in this GFS code. 169 5.2.3.2.5 GFS 10 – Waste water management Capital expenditure related to water services (GFS 1001 – sewage and GFS 1004 – other unallocated) received the bulk (over 90%) of the actual and budgetary allocation to this function. 170 5.2.3.2.6 GFS 11 – Road transport In the road transport function (GFS 11), roads and stormwater is expected to command an increasing share of the budget, with the relative share of the transport sub-function declining. 171 5.2.3.2.7 GFS 12 – Water In the 2004/5 budget, capital expenditure related to water distribution dominated the water services budget. However, for 2010/11 and 2011/12 this trend is expected to be reversed, with water storage expenditure comprising more than 65% of the budget in these years. 172 5.2.3.2.8 GFS 13 – Electricity Capital expenditure related to electricity distribution is highest, although one should not conclude that this has increased over time because the unallocated proportion has declined. 173 5.2.3.2.9 GFS 14 – Other Tourism development is the overarching capital expenditure item in this function with economic and human development making up an almost negligible component (<1.0%). 174 5.3 Operational expenditure (OPEX) 5.3.1 Operational expenditure in absolute values (R million) 5.3.1.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection Operational expenditure on pollution control and biodiversity and landscape protection both show increasing trends, but the overall budget is low compared with many other environmental line functions. 175 5.3.1.2 Other SEE operational expenditure 5.3.1.2.1 GFS 03 – Planning and development Planning and building development management dominates the SEE component of GFS 03. Some increases are expected for the ERM operational budget in the 2008/9–2011/12 budget years. 176 5.3.1.2.2 GFS 05 – Community and social services Sport and recreation (GFS 0502 – museums and art galleries, GFS 0503 – community halls and facilities, GFS 0507 – other community, and GFS 0508 – other social) makes a significantly lower contribution to operational expenditure compared to the parks budget (GFS 0504 – cemeteries and crematoriums, and the parks component of GFS 0507 – other community). 177 5.3.1.2.3 GFS 08 – Sport and recreation In the sport and recreation function, the parks budget is almost negligible with actual expenditure of more than R300 million in 2007/8. Interestingly, in contrast to the capital budget, operational expenditure on Sport, Recreation and Amenities is expected to increase after 2010. 178 5.3.1.2.4 GFS 10 – Solid waste management Operational expenditure on solid waste management services has steadily increased over the period, with the budget for the 2011/12 year at almost R2 billion. Actual expenditure, however, has fluctuated between approximately R800 million and R1 200 million. 179 5.3.1.2.5 GFS 10 – Waste water management Operational expenditure on sewerage services forms the bulk of the waste water management line function. Overall budgets are similar to the solid waste management services’ budget. 180 5.3.1.2.6 GFS 11 – Road transport Operational expenditure on roads forms the largest component of the allocated budget for this line function, although there is a large and increasing unallocated component which masks true trends. 181 5.3.1.2.7 GFS 12 – Water Water distribution is the largest component in the water services budget, with actual expenditure peaking at just over R1.4 billion in 2005/6. Water storage expenditure is budgeted at roughly half of the water distribution budget. The unallocated component is quite significant from the 2007/8 budget until the 2011/12 budget. 182 5.3.1.2.8 GFS 13 – Electricity Electricity distribution costs form the bulk of actual expenditure, with electricity generation costs almost negligible. Expenditure on street lighting only features in 2008/9 so far. Electricity distribution costs are expected to increase significantly from 2009/10 to 2011/12. 183 5.3.1.2.9 GFS 14 – Other We have included abattoir services under environmental expenditure, although this peters out in the 2005/6 budget. Overall tourism expenditure is surprisingly low at less than R80 million across all the periods examined. 184 5.3.1.3 Total operational expenditure The operational expenditure in Sectors with Environmental Expenditure (SEE) has exceeded the non-SEE sectors in terms of historical spending. Actual expenditure in SEE peaked in 2007/8 at just under R10 billion. SEE are expected to increase markedly from the 2009/10 budget to the 2011/12 budget. Non-environmental expenditure, however, is expected to remain fairly constant over this period. 185 5.3.2 Operational expenditure as percentage of total budget 5.3.2.1 2004/5 Budget Electricity distribution has the highest share of the environmental component of the operational budget, at just below 20% of the total budget allocation. This is followed by water distribution, solid waste and sewage at between 5 and 10 percent of budget. 5.3.2.2 2005/6 Budget Actual expenditure on water distribution peaked at above 10% of budget during this financial year. 186 5.3.2.3 2006/7 Budget The non-environment component of the budget has increased to almost 40% compared to the previous two budget years, with actual expenditure higher than the approved budget. 5.3.2.4 2007/8 Budget In most cases actual expenditure matches or is less than the current/final budget, with the exception of solid waste services (and non-environmental), although differences are on the whole small. 187 5.3.2.5 2008/9 Budget Operational expenditure on environmental protection services is an almost insignificant component of the total budget (less than 1%). 5.3.2.6 Budget forecast: 2009/10–2011/12 The budget forecast from 2009/10 to 2011/12 shows that electricity distribution costs are expected to command an increasing share of the budget, while non-SEE expenditure is expected to decrease. Electricity distribution costs alone are expected to be almost equivalent to the total non-SEE budget, while the remaining SEE budget (excluding electricity distribution) is expected to make up just less than half of the total budget. 188 5.3.3 Operational expenditure as percentage of city line function 5.3.3.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection Biodiversity and landscape has received an increasing share of the budget allocated to environmental protection, standing at just below 40% in the most recently available years. This budget allocation is expected to remain constant in the forecast budget period (from 2009/10 to 2011/12). 189 5.3.3.2 Other SEE sector expenditure 5.3.3.2.1 GFS 03 – Planning and development Planning and building development management has by far the highest SEE expenditure allocated in the GFS 03 function. The non-SEE component has remained stable at approximately 40% of total line function. The non-SEE share of GFS 03 is expected to decline from the 2009/10 budget through to the 2011/12 budget relative to the 2008/9 period. 190 5.3.3.2.2 GFS 05 – Community and social services Operational expenditure on parks (GFS 0504 – cemeteries and crematoriums, and GFS 0507 – other community) has remained fairly constant with more than 50% of the budget allocated to the community and social services function. Parks expenditure is expected to decline as overall share of the budget allocated to GFS 05, with the non-SEE component increasing. 191 5.3.3.2.3 GFS 08 – Sport and recreation The parks component of the sports and recreation function is almost negligible. Sizeable negative OPEX transfers were recorded in the non-SEE component related to 2010 Soccer World Cup activities. 5.3.3.2.4 GFS 10 – Solid waste management This is not applicable since only one sub-function/department is present in this GFS code. 192 5.3.3.2.5 GFS 10 – Waste water management Sewerage services stand at well over 80% of the operational budget allocated to the waste water management function. This allocation has also remained fairly stable over time. 193 5.3.3.2.6 GFS 11 – Road transport The unallocated component of the budget within this function is high, standing at over 60% of the budget for most years and peaking at well over 80% for the 2009/10 budget period. 194 5.3.3.2.7 GFS 12 – Water Budget allocations have remained fairly consistent in this function, with water distribution a dominant but somewhat fluctuating percentage of the budget. 195 5.3.3.2.8 GFS 13 – Electricity Although overall budget allocations to the electricity services function have increased over time (see section 5.3.1.2.8), the budget allocations within this function have remained fairly consistent over time. 196 5.3.3.2.9 GFS 14 – Other Abattoir costs peaked in the 2004/5 budget year at more than 40% of the budget, but are now no longer part of the activities of this function. 197 5.3.3.3 Total operational expenditure Total operational expenditure on SEE has remained fairly constant at just over 60% of the total budget between 2004/5 and 2008/9. Between 2009/10 and 2011/12 the SEE share is expected to increase slightly, to just over 70% in 2012. 198 5.4 Realistic environmental expenditure (REE) 5.4.1 Capital expenditure 5.4.1.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection The share of environmental protection to total capital budget increased significantly between 2005 and 2006, but has remained fairly stable since then. 199 5.4.1.2 Other REE sector expenditure 5.4.1.2.1 GFS 03 – Planning and development The share of REE in GFS 03 has declined over time, from 0.42% to 0.16%. 5.4.1.2.2 GFS 05 – Community and social services In absolute value terms, REE expenditure on community and social services has grown, but as a percentage of the budget this has remained stable or even declined. 200 5.4.1.2.3 GFS 08 – Sport and recreation The share of sport and recreation REE as a percentage of the total capital budget has also declined over time. 5.4.1.2.4 GFS 10 – Solid waste management In absolute terms, capital expenditure on solid waste management has grown in a somewhat erratic manner. 201 5.4.1.2.5 GFS 10 – Waste water management REE capital expenditure on waste water management has grown, with marginal growth in percentage terms as well. 5.4.1.2.6 GFS 11 – Road transport In percentage terms, road transport has declined from 0.22% of the budget in 2005 to 0.12% in 2008, with some expectation of an increase in 2009. 202 5.4.1.2.7 GFS 12 – Water Water services capital expenditure reached a peak in absolute terms in 2006, with REE at R6.6 million or 0.43% of the budget. 5.4.1.2.8 GFS 13 – Electricity Electricity REE has remained fairly stable as a share of the total budget at between 0.17% and 0.18%. 203 5.4.1.2.9 GFS 14 – Other Tourism capital expenditure is a low and declining share of the total budget for the ensuing periods. 5.4.1.3 Total capital expenditure While total REE capital expenditure has increased, the share of the total budget has declined from 3.24% to 2.1% between 2005 and 2008. 204 Non-REE capital expenditure, however, has increased both numerically as well as in percentage terms. 5.4.2 Operational expenditure 5.4.2.1 GFS 09 – Environmental protection Operational expenditure on environmental protection is expected to grow from 0.42% of the budget to 0.61% of the budget between 2005 and 2009. 205 5.4.2.2 Other REE sector expenditure 5.4.2.2.1 GFS 03 – Planning and development The REE operational component of GFS 03 has increased gradually in rand terms. However, as percentage of budget it has fluctuated between 0.16% and 0.19%. 5.4.2.2.2 GFS 05 – Community and social services REE in GFS 05 has remained fairly stable in both rand terms as well as a percentage of the total budget. 206 5.4.2.2.3 GFS 08 – Sport and recreation REE in sport and recreation has grown steadily from 0.42% to 0.54% of the total budget. 5.4.2.2.4 GFS 10 – Solid waste management Solid waste management environmental expenditure has fluctuated between R20 million and R30 million over the period. 207 5.4.2.2.5 GFS 10 – Waste water management Waste water management REE has remained fairly constant. In percentage terms it peaked in 2005 at 0.35%. 5.4.2.2.6 GFS 11 – Road transport The scale of the graph hides the fact that road transport environmental expenditure is fairly stable at low levels of between 0.05% and 0.06%. 208 5.4.2.2.7 GFS 12 – Water REE in the water sector has fluctuated, both in absolute terms as well as a percentage of the budget. Expenditure peaked at R54.5 million in 2007/8. 5.4.2.2.8 GFS 13 – Electricity Electricity REE as a percentage of the total budget reached its lowest levels in 2007/8, with a recovery expected for 2008/9. 209 5.4.2.2.9 GFS 14 – Other Tourism operation expenditure on the environment peaked in 2004/5 at R8.3 million and 0.08% of the budget. 5.4.2.3 Total operational expenditure Total REE operational expenditure has climbed steadily to 2.44% of the budget in 2007/8, and is expected to continue to grow in 2009. The exception was 2006 where a decline was experienced. 210 Non-REE operational expenditure as a percentage of the budget has declined steadily since 2006. This is despite some positive growth in absolute terms. 5.5 Operational Management expenditure: Environmental Resource Financial information on ERM was extracted from the City of Cape Town’s SAP database by City Officials. We attempted a reconciliation of these figures with the Access database previously reported on but were not able to. For example, according to the SAP dataset the total expenditure in the ERM department in 2009/10 is expected to be at R90.4 million. The Access dataset we were provided with (which may well also come from SAP) gave a total of R150.3 million (across GFS codes 0301 and 0902). We attempted to clarify this with the City of Cape Town’s finance representative but he was unable to assist us as he did not extract the ERM data. For the sake of completeness, therefore, we report both sets of figures. 211 5.5.1 Departmental expenditure 5.1.1 Environment and heritage management The environment and heritage management department is expected to increase its share of the operational budget from 15% to 22% over the reported forecast period. 5.5.1.2 Environmental head office The share of the budget allocated to the environmental head office is expected to decrease, although in absolute terms the rand value will increase. 212 5.5.1.3 Nature conservation Absolute expenditure in the nature conservation department is expected to increase from R32 million to R66 million, although its share of the budget will remain largely unchanged. 5.5.2 Operational expenditure: total for ERM The expenditure budget for ERM is expected to almost double, from R90 million in the 2009/10 budget year to R160 million in the 2010/11 budget year. 213 5.6 Trend analysis 5.6.1 Capital expenditure 5.6.1.1 Absolute differences (R million) 5.6.1.1.1 Sectors with Environmental Expenditure (SEE) The majority of SEE has experienced relatively low net changes in capital expenditure. There were five sectors with net changes of more than R100 million, namely: water utilities in 2005/6 (R173 million change), electricity in 2005/6 and 2007/8 (net changes of R103 million and R212 million respectively) waste water management (R126 million in 2007/8) and road transport (R104 million in 2007/8). 214 5.6.1.1.2 Non-SEE In the non-SEE, the majority of changes in capital expenditure have all been well below the R100 million mark. The only exception has been the FIFA component of sport and recreation that experienced absolute changes of R665 million in 2007/8. 215 5.6.1.2 Percentage change 5.6.1.2.1 SEE The percentage changes in CAPEX in the SEE have been the highest for tourism development (627% in 2007/8) although this is off a low base. Environmental protection (281%), water utilities (190%) and solid waste management (139%) have also experienced notable increases in CAPEX investment between 2004 and 2008. 216 5.6.1.2.2 Non-SEE Sport and recreation (394% and 139% respectively) have experienced the highest percentage change in capital expenditure over the period, followed by executive and council (GFS 01) (229% in 2005/6 and 199% in 2006/7). Planning and development (GFS 03) also experienced positive changes (206%) in expenditure in 2005/6. 217 5.6.2 Operational expenditure 5.6.2.1 Absolute differences (R million) 5.6.2.1.1 SEE In contrast to the capital budget, there were more sectors that changed by large amounts. In the SEE functions four expenditure items changed by more than R250 million year-onyear. These were water utilities (R436 million in 2005/6 and R387 million in 2007/8 and a decline of R260 million in 2008/9), and electricity (increasing by R301 million in 2007/8). 218 5.6.2.1.2 Non-SEE In non-SEE, only finance and administration (GFS 02) experienced expenditure changes in its operational budget of more than R250 million in any given year. Two expenditure items exceeded this amount. In 2005/6, expenditure changes were the highest in this function at R893 million. In the 2008/9 budget year, absolute differences declined by R468 million in the first ten months. 219 5.6.2.2 Percentage change 5.6.2.2.1 SEE In terms of percentage change in SEE operational expenditure, large changes were in general fewer than for the capital expenditure. Only three expenditure items had changes of more than 30% year-on-year (i.e. water utilities at 30% in 2005/6, tourism development with a decline of 35% in 2006/7, and community and social services at 32% in 2007/8). 220 5.6.2.2.2 Non-SEE By contrast, there were six expenditure items in the non-SEE budget that increased by more than 30% (i.e. Finance and admin in 2005/6, Planning and development and housing in that same year, sport and recreation in 2006/7 and 2008/9 and housing again in 2007/8). 221 5.6.3 REE Capital expenditure Comparisons between percentage changes in the REE capital budget and non-REE budget indicates that REE expenditure had little positive impact on the budget. Most of the impacts were negative. This suggests that changes in REE expenditure has not contributed significantly to the overall CAPEX. 5.6.4 REE Operational expenditure Although the REE operational budget has shown some positive impact on the OPEX budget between 2006/7 and 2008/9, the overall average change in REE expenditure has only been 1.7%. 222 5.7 Discussion Total expenditure on Sectors with Environmental Elements (SEE) = development (capital) expenditure + recurring (operational) expenditure. Development expenditure has increased from R688 million in 2004/5 to R1 668 million in 2007/8, an annual increase of just below 34%. By contrast the non-SEE has grown by an average of 76% per annum over the same period. Comparing SEE and non-SEE recurring expenditure shows a much slower average annual growth. SEE expenditure grew by an average of 6.5% between 2004/5 and 2007/8. NonSEE expenditure, however, grew by 10.2% over the same period. The SEE offer a very broad approach to identifying environmental expenditure. Many of the expenditure items within each of these GFS codes would not constitute direct expenditure on environmental assets or goods and services. However, how does one determine which of these relate to environmental expenditure, and which do not? In the absence of alternatives, this study adopts expert opinion to derive sectors with realistic environmental expenditure (REE). An analysis of changes in environmental expenditure with overall changes in budget indicates that spurts of environmental expenditure has not had a significant impact overall on the City’s budget. This would suggest that, on the whole, environmental feedbacks have not worked through the budgetary system yet. 5.8 Conclusion We analysed City of Cape Town’s capital and operational (CAPEX and OPEX) expenditure from the 2004/5 to 2011/2 budget periods. The study focused on sectors with environmental expenditure (SEE) and a more narrowly defined definition of environmental expenditure based on realistic environmental expenditure (REE). The definition of these SEE is broad, accounting for over 60% of the total City of Cape Town budget. REE on the other hand was between 2 and 2.5% of total budget in 2007/8. Not surprisingly, expenditure on utilities, waste and capital expenditure related to the 2010 Soccer World Cup featured strongly. Somewhat more surprisingly though, is the low capital or operational expenditure on more traditional environmental functions such as environmental protection. In an analysis of the trends in REE expenditure, the study concludes that there is no indication of bursts in environmental expenditure when compared to the total budget. The study recommends the development of a more robust definition of environmental expenditure within the City’s budgetary process. 223 1 Executive and Council 3 4 Planning and Development Health Finance and Admin 2 Function Code Function 203 204 205 206 Information Technology Property Services Other Admin No Split Total 401 402 403 404 Clinics Ambulance Other No Split Total 301 202 Human Resources Not Required 201 101 Finance Not Required Sub-function Sub-function Code Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems. Including Health Inspection Includes: Economic Planning and Development, Town Planning, Corporate Wide Strategic Planning (IDPs LEDs, etc.), Building Regulations and Enforcement, City Engineer (from a town planning perspective), etc. Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems Security services, legal services, fleet management, asset management, procurement (orders, tenders, contract management, etc.), general risk management (incl. Insurance), marketing publicity & media coordination (other than tourism) Municipality owned and operated & leased properties including building operation and maintenance, administration, etc. All activities relating to IT services All activities related to the human resources function such as selection and recruitment, induction, career development, counselling, payroll, occupational health and safety, etc. All activities relates to the finance function such as financial statements, budgets, management reporting, revenue collection (credit control), financial asset and liability management (treasury & cash management), rates, RSC levies, audit, creditors, etc. All costs for Mayoral, Councillor and committee expenses Municipal Manager, Town Secretary and Chief Executive costs Including the costs of providing physical amenities for these activities Further Description of Activities Appendix 5.1: International standards (GFS functions and sub-functions) used 224 5 6 7 8 9 Community and Social Services Housing Public Safety Sport and Recreation Environmental Protection 507 508 509 Other Community Other Social No Split Total 703 704 705 Civil Defence Other No Split Total Pollution Control 901 801 702 Fire Not Required 701 Police 601 506 Aged Care Not Required 505 Child Care Cemeteries 504 and Crematoriums Ambient air and climate protection, soil and groundwater protection, noise and vibration abatement, protection against radiation, etc. Includes community parks (incl. nurseries), sports grounds and stadiums, swimming pools, beaches, lakes, dams and jetties for recreation, camping sites, etc. Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems Includes licensing and control of animals and control of public nuisances, disaster management (not civil defence) Includes municipal commandos, etc. – not policing Fire fighting and protection Includes police forces and traffic and street parking control All activities associated with the provision of housing Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems Including literacy programmes, etc. (e.g. Theatres, Zoos, etc. – provide notes on significant activities) Including old aged homes, home help, transport facilities, etc. Including crèches, etc. Exhibition halls and places for community gatherings Community halls and Facilities 503 Including monuments and historic houses and sites 501 Museums and 502 Art Galleries, etc. Libraries and Archives 225 10 10 11 12 Solid Waste Management Waste Water Management Road Transport Water 904 No Split Total Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems 1204 No Split Total Including bulk purchases and distribution infrastructure, etc. Including storage infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs as well as activities to prepare the water for use such as purification 1201 Water Storage 1202 Water Distribution 1106 No Split Total Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems Includes activities associated with taxi ranks, etc. 1105 Other All activities associated with off street parking garages Vehicle licensing, etc. as an agent for the province 1103 Parking Garages All activities relating to the provision of public bus services Operating, maintenance and capital expenditure on the major infrastructure category of roads Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems This includes construction, maintenance, operating, etc. This does not include water purification for human consumption Includes refuse removal, solid waste disposal (landfill sites), street cleaning, recycling, etc. Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems Includes coastal protection, etc. Includes activities relating to the protection of flora and fauna species, the protection of habitats and the protection of landscapes for their aesthetic values (e.g. rehabilitation of abandoned mines and quarry sites) Vehicle 1104 Licensing and Testing 1102 1004 No Split Total Public Buses 1003 Public Toilets 1101 1002 Storm Water Management Roads 1001 Sewerage 1011 903 Other Solid Waste 902 Biodiversity and Landscape 226 13 14 Electricity Other 1405 Markets Operation of markets – fresh produce, etc. All activities associated with the forestry industry Please specify if any one function is greater than 20% of the Other category This encompasses any activities not covered above. Specifying significant activities will assist to ensure that classification takes place where required. 1404 Forestry Tourism promotion and development Other 1403 Tourism Operation of abattoirs Includes licensing of food and liquor sales to the public and licensing of street traders (hawkers control) and business. Does not include building or planning regulation or vehicle licensing. 1402 Abattoirs Licensing and 1406 Regulation 1401 Air Transport Municipal airports Used if systems will not allow the function to be split into the required subfunctions. Mechanisms should be put in place to improve systems 1305 No split total Gas not included here and must be included under other Operating, maintenance and capital expenditure on the infrastructure category Street lighting 1302 Electricity Generation Including bulk purchases and distribution infrastructure, etc. Street Lighting 1303 1301 Electricity Distribution 227 Chapter 6: A financial-economic evaluation model for the City of Cape Town’s natural capital Lead author: James Blignaut with inputs from: Martin de Wit Hugo van Zyl Doug Crookes 6.1 Introduction The task here is to compare the value derived from the ecosystem services to the City of Cape Town with the annual expenditure on the natural environment. This includes all sectors within the municipality that can be broadly defined as “environment sectors”. Subsequent to this mapping, the task is to determine some key quantitative indicators as to the level and priorities of investment in the environmental sector. These indicators, which could be considered as a financial-economic model for investing in the City of Cape Town’s natural capital when they are combined, will then be used within the context of developing a business case for investing in natural capital. It has been shown in Chapter 4 that the City benefits greatly from a range of ecosystem services. It has also been indicated that there are considerable gaps, despite a comparatively rich database in ecosystem valuation studies over a long period of time, and that the quantification of the benefits humans derive from these services can, at best, only be partially quantified. Based on four prioritised services (as discussed in Chapter 3), namely nature-based tourism by non-residents, recreation benefits for residents, buffering against natural hazards, and the aesthetic appreciation of the area as expressed through the size of the film and production industry, the benefits are valued between R2 billion and R6 billion per year as depicted in Table 6.1 for three scenarios. In this valuation provision is made for other services based on a factor of the aforementioned four services. 228 Table 6.1: The value of ecosystem services to the City of Cape Town: 2008: R million: A partial analysis Low Medium High Tourism 965 1 829 2 948 Recreation 408 449 494 Natural hazard regulation 5 18 60 Film industry 133 265 398 Other 453 1 024 1 950 Total 1 963 3 586 5 850 The expenditure of the City of Cape Town by GFS code, extracting the data pertaining to the environmental sector, was presented in Chapter 5 (see Table 6.2). While it is unclear what amount has been invested in natural assets or has a direct bearing on the delivery of ecosystem services, a decision was taken to assume percentage expenditure, by sector, going towards or advancing the delivery of ecosystem services, as indicated by the percentages provided in Table 6.2. The evaluation that follows is based on the results provided in Table 6.1 and Table 6.2. The GFS expenditure sectors have also been weighed in terms of its contribution to ecosystem delivery. Each GFS sector has been scored for its perceived contribution to 17 different ecosystem services (as listed in Chapter 4). These services have, on its own accord, been weighed in terms of its priority as per the outcome of discussions with municipal linemanagers. The scoring of the GFS sector was done according to the scoring system indicated below. The detailed results of the scoring are provided in Appendix 6.1 and a summery is given in Table 6.3. The scoring system that was used is as follows: -1 GFS expenditure negatively affects provision of service, or the current management of this GFS sector adversely affects EGS 0 GFS expenditure has no contribution to service 1 GFS expenditure has minor positive impact on service 2 GFS expenditure contribute positive to service 4 GFS expenditure advances the delivery of service significantly 229 Capital budget 12.5% 2.5% 25.0% 100.0% 2.50% 5.00% 1% 2.50% 1% 10% GFS 03: GFS 05: GFS 08: GFS 09: GFS 10: Solid GFS 10: GFS 11: GFS 12: GFS 13: GFS 14: Total env Total non-env Total Planning and Communic Sport and Environmental waste Waste water Road Water Electricity Tourism sector sector expenditure development ation and recreation protection management management transport utilities development social services 19 832 781 8 306 670 45 581 804 45 875 013 19 956 211 38 064 628 6 516 572 36 138 687 27 670 012 8 309 764 256 252 142 10 578 696 065 10 834 948 207 21 184 078 8 428 409 58 541 619 49 105 204 24 194 291 34 893 274 7 263 549 47 033 264 29 799 724 6 263 102 286 706 512 12 632 408 546 12 919 115 058 23 487 487 8 037 888 64 436 323 63 731 111 23 288 206 38 971 922 7 474 394 44 830 890 30 656 183 4 086 506 309 000 910 12 781 827 004 13 090 827 914 25 714 571 10 595 165 76 411 184 81 052 396 29 512 123 44 450 232 9 187 158 54 494 928 33 665 566 4 505 358 369 588 681 14 803 894 461 15 173 483 142 27 938 872 10 019 918 78 161 013 88 435 116 25 497 714 44 867 483 7 662 556 47 999 596 36 114 111 4 654 699 371 351 079 14 238 134 974 14 609 486 052 230 % env expenditure 12.5% 2.5% 25.0% 100.0% 2.50% 5.00% 1% 2.50% 1% 10% Functions GFS 03: GFS 05: GFS 08: GFS 09: GFS 10: Solid GFS 10: GFS 11: GFS 12: GFS 13: GFS 14: Total env Total non-env Total Planning and Communica Sport and Environmental waste Waste water Road Water Electricity Tourism sector sector expenditure development tion and recreation protection management management transport utilities development social services 2004/5 3 969 510 435 121 14 755 320 736 358 953 375 3 693 309 2 056 103 2 270 296 1 681 086 257 991 30 808 469 30 808 469 951 452 721 2005/6 4 204 646 458 663 23 995 486 2 803 686 962 663 5 379 932 2 926 754 6 586 732 2 709 501 233 305 50 261 375 50 261 375 1 520 642 489 2006/7 3 477 344 652 331 24 918 781 3 008 920 2 297 053 7 291 032 2 555 332 4 616 078 3 275 496 15 048 52 107 414 52 107 414 1 953 422 014 2007/8 4 183 096 1 012 156 24 227 839 4 592 994 2 765 442 13 573 908 3 596 971 5 256 463 5 390 446 109 393 64 708 708 64 708 708 3 102 330 243 2008/9 8 248 353 1 473 264 42 880 400 9 264 315 4 144 550 23 992 844 7 831 739 6 375 898 5 486 377 163 050 109 860 791 109 860 791 5 224 063 258 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 % env expenditure Operational budget Table 6.2: Actual expenditure by sector: The City of Cape Town Normalised weight Relative (to average) weight Weight 10% 1.02 1.4 13% 1.33 1.8 12% 1.16 1.5 26% 2.56 3.4 9% 0.89 1.2 GFS 03: Planning GFS 05: GFS 08: Sport GFS 09: GFS 10: Solid and development Communication and recreation Environmental waste and social services protection management Table 6.3: Contribution of GFS expenditure sector to ecosystem service delivery 15% 1.47 2.0 3% 0.25 0.3 GFS 10: Waste GFS 11: water Road management transport 0.7 5% 0.50 GFS 12: Water utilities 0.1 1% 0.10 GFS 13: Electricity 231 7% 0.72 1.0 GFS 14: Tourism development 6.2 Expenditure on ecosystem services in the City of Cape Town: An assessment 6.2.1 The value of the capital asset In economic theory, when it is not possible to determine the market value of any particular capital stock, the value of that stock is provided by the net present value of the sum of the value of the flows derived from that stock. Like any other capital, natural capital has a stock value that produces flows, namely ecosystem services. The net present value method is considered to be a lower bound estimate of the capital value of an asset since i) it is not always possible to include all flows, and ii) the synergy among the flows often implies that the capital stock value is more than just the mere aggregation of the present value of a set of services. Within this limitation, we provide a range of such capital values based on four different discount rates (see Table 6.4). We assume a 15-year time period, and the real growth in each sector as indicated, based on the medium range of values as per Table 6.1. It has been argued that the use of a negative discount rate is needed to reflect the increasing scarcity of natural assets (Blignaut & Aronson 2008) and, hence, we include it in this analysis. However, it is accepted practice that, within the context of financial flows, positive discount rates are used to reflect society’s time preference for money today rather than tomorrow. Table 6.4: Capital value of the nature-based asset: R million: 2008 Growth rate 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% Discount rate Tourism Recreation Natural hazard regulation Film industry Other Total -2% 40 577 11 644 400 6 362 22 732 81 715 2% 28 819 8 154 284 4 487 16 145 57 889 4% 24 672 6 932 243 3 828 13 822 49 497 6% 21 330 5 952 210 3 298 11 949 42 740 It is estimated that the value of the City of Cape Town’s stock of natural capital is in the range of R43–R82 billion, depending on the discount rate used. 6.2.2 Leveraging value Seeing that capital expenditure (see Table 6.2) and the asset value (see Table 6.4) are known, it is possible to derive a relationship between the value of the asset and the expenditure linked to deriving such value. This is provided in Table 6.5. 232 In a conventional sense any form of a capital investment project has a large upfront capital component with ongoing operating and maintenance cost. By comparing the return to the investment over time with the upfront investment, it is possible to determine a return on investment. In the case of managing natural capital, we do not have a once-off capital investment, but an ongoing process of restoration, conservation, expansion, management and maintenance of the natural asset base. It is, therefore, not possible to calculate a conventional return on investment figure, but it is indeed possible to derive a relationship in similar fashion to that of a return on investment to indicate the asset value that the related expenditure is generating. To do so we have assumed a realistic real growth rate in the expenditure over 15 years at 8%. We conduct this comparison by only comparing the asset value to the capital expenditure, and also with capital plus operational expenditure. The value generated by these expenditures varies between 500% and 4 000% of the expenditure. Table 6.5: Return on capital investment Discount rate Value of capital asset: R million NPV of capex investment: R million Leverage % NPV of capex + opex investment Leverage % -2% 81 715 2 116 3762% 14 200 475% 2% 57 889 1 453 3884% 9 753 494% 4% 49 497 1 223 3946% 8 211 503% 6% 42 740 1 040 4008% 6 982 512% It is difficult to put these results in perspective without calculating the leverage achieved on other asset categories for the municipality. This information was not available. As an indicator of comparative leverage it is possible to express and compare the relationship between municipal expenditure and the general value added in the economy with the expenditure on the environmental sector and the value of the ecosystem services delivered (see Table 6.6). The former is provided by the ratio of the City’s GDP to the City budget, which is declining from 9.6 in 2005/6 to below 6.8 in 2009/10. The latter ratio is provided by the value of the ecosystem services to the City budget on environment services, which is between 4.5 and 13.5, depending on the scenario. Based on the medium scenario it is approximately 8.3. This implies that the leverage of municipal expenditure on the environmental sector is considerably higher, i.e. between 1.21 and 1.97 times, than that of municipal expenditure on the City economy. 233 Table 6.6: Relationship between public value generation and public expenditure GDP: CT CT budget: Total Ratio: GDP:Budget 400 4/5 113 000 11 786 9.59 334 1/6 124 000 14 440 8.59 286 4/7 128 960 15 044 8.57 250 7/8 132 829 18 276 7.27 223 1/9 136 814 19 834 6.83 Value of EGS: 2008 Env budget: Total: 2008 Ratio: EGS:Budget Low 1 963 434 4.52 Medium 3 586 434 8.26 High 5 850 434 13.47 Ratio: City-wide Ratio: EGS Ratio: EGS:City 2008/9: Medium 6.83 8.26 1.21 2008: High 13.47 1.97 6.83 6.2.3 Unit reference value A common metric used to compare the return of different water augmentation schemes is the unit reference value (URV). The URV gives the cost to produce R1’s worth of benefits. A URV>1 implies the cost exceeds the benefits, and vice versa. The common range for URVs in the water sector is between 2 and 5 (Blignaut et al. 2008; Marais & Wanneburgh 2008; Blignaut et al. in press), implying that it costs between R2 and R5 to sell raw water valued at R1. These ranges for water augmentation schemes are typical for the construction of dams. When considering desalination plants the URVs tend to be even higher. The URV of the natural capital stock is provided in Table 6.7. It is conventional to include both the capital and the operational costs when determining this indicator. According to this, R1 benefit costs approximately 16c to deliver. Table 6.7: Unit reference value of the natural capital stock of the City of Cape Town Discount rate Value of capital NPV of capex + URV asset: R million opex -2% 81 715 14 200 0.174 2% 57 889 9 753 0.168 4% 49 497 8 211 0.166 6% 42 740 6 982 0.163 234 6.2.4 Distribution patterns of capital and operational expenditure between the environmental and non-environmental sectors Given that the City’s expenditure has been disaggregated between expenditure towards the environmental sector and expenditure towards the non-environmental sector, it is possible to compare the ratio of the capital expenditure to operational expenditure in these two sectors. The distinction used here in terms of what is considered to be included under the terms “environmental” and “non-environmental” sectors are discussed in detail in Chapter 5. Broadly speaking, the environmental sector comprises expenditures by the City on the GFS sectors as highlighted in Table 6.2, and in accordance to the percentages provided therein. The balance is considered to be the non-environmental sector. The comparison between the expenditure for the environmental and non-environmental sectors is provided in Table 6.8. To prevent skewing the data concerning the preparation for the FIFA 2010 Soccer World Cup, these infrastructure developments have been considered non-environmental (see Table 6.9, GFS 08). Table 6.8: Ratio: Capex to Opex: Summary R million Ratio Env opex Non-env opex Env capex Non-env capex Env capex: Non-env opex capex: opex Env.inv: Nonenv.inv 2004/5 256 10 579 31 921 0.12 0.09 1.38 2005/6 287 12 632 50 1 470 0.18 0.12 1.51 2006/7 309 12 782 52 1 901 0.17 0.15 1.13 2007/8 370 14 804 65 3 038 0.18 0.21 0.85 2008/9 371 14 238 110 5 114 0.30 0.36 0.82 Table 6.9: Ratio: Capex to Opex: By GFS sector GFS 03 GFS GFS GFS 05 08 09 GFS 10 GFS GFS (solid 10 11 waste) (waste water) GFS 12 GFS GFS Env 13 14 Sector Non- Total env sector 2004/5 20% 5% 32% 2% 5% 10% 32% 6% 6% 3% 12% 9% 9% 2005/6 20% 5% 41% 6% 4% 15% 40% 14% 9% 4% 18% 12% 12% 2006/7 15% 8% 39% 5% 10% 19% 34% 10% 11% 0% 17% 15% 15% 2007/8 16% 10% 32% 6% 9% 31% 39% 10% 16% 2% 18% 21% 20% 2008/9 30% 15% 55% 10% 16% 53% 102% 13% 15% 4% 30% 36% 36% 235 Another way is to compare the expenditure on the environmental sector to that of the nonenvironmental sector (see Table 6.10). This indicates that environmental operational and capital expenditure is only between 2.1% and 3.4% of expenditure on items considered not to be related to the environmental sector. Table 6.10: Comparison of environmental to non-environmental expenditure R million Env Nonopex env.opex 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 256 287 309 370 371 10 579 12 632 12 782 14 804 14 238 Env capex 31 50 52 65 110 Nonenv.capex 921 1 470 1 901 3 038 5 114 Percentage Env.opex as % of Nonenv.opex 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% Env.capex as % of Nonenv.capex 3.3% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 6.3 Conclusion We analysed, in a symbiotic way, the value (albeit only partial) of the ecosystem services produced by the City of Cape Town linked to the public expenditure (by the City metro) aimed towards ecosystem service delivery. It has been shown that: • expenditure on environmental protection is the lowest, • expenditure on the environmental sector is only about 2–2.5% of the nonenvironmental expenditure, • the cost of producing R1 of benefit or value is approximately 16c, and • the ratio indicating the relationship between the public value generation and public expenditure for the environment sector exceeds that of the general economy by between 1.2 and 2 times. Overall, these financial indicators provide evidence for ecosystem goods and services as a high-performing growth supporting sector. 236 2.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.0 1.0 70.6 1.4 Total score Weight (out of 4) 58.7 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 2.3 82.9 1.5 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 2.0 3.5 4.0 Natural hazard regulation 5.00 Tourism 5.00 Recreation 5.00 Water purification & waste assim. 3.75 Space for biota 3.75 Aesthetic value & sense of place 3.75 Local air quality 2.50 Urban farming 2.50 Water regulation 2.50 Fish and marine resources 2.50 Global climate regulation 1.00 Fresh water provision 1.00 Build. materials, resource harvest. & materials for arts & crafts 1.00 Inspirational beauty, educ., cultural & religious value 1.00 Erosion control 1.00 Disease regulation 1.00 Use in film and production industry 1.00 148.0 3.4 3.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.0 4.0 3.5 0.5 3.3 2.3 3.5 2.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 GFS 08: GFS 09: Sport & Env. recreation protec. GFS 03: GFS 05: Planning Comm. & & social developm. services 3.5 1.3 2.0 1.5 2.5 2.5 Weight 43.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.8 0.3 2.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 3.0 0.3 73.8 2.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 2.3 0.0 1.8 0.5 0.3 2.8 2.0 0.3 1.3 4.0 0.3 14.6 0.3 1.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.3 0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 GFS 10: GFS 10: GFS 11: Solid Waste Road waste water transport managem. managem. 1.0 3.3 -0.3 1.5 1.8 2.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 38.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 2.3 0.3 -0.3 4.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.5 GFS 12: Water utilities 12.3 0.1 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.3 GFS 13: Elect. 50.3 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 -0.3 4.0 2.5 237 GFS 14: Tourism dev. Appendix 6.1: Details of weighing the GFS sector expenditure on ecosystem service delivery Chapter 7: Developing effective arguments for investing in the natural environment Lead author: Martin de Wit with contributions from: Valerie Goiset 7.1 Introduction It cannot be assumed that a more rigorous valuation of ecosystem goods and services and model results justifying increased investment will automatically lead to improved decisions. There are at least three main reasons for this. First, the diffusion of scientific knowledge into decision-making is surprisingly non-linear (De Wit 2004; Keeley & Scones 2003; De Greene 1993). Any inputs into the decision-making process, let alone rigorous analytical economic valuation, do not filter into a predictable and incremental process and can, therefore, not easily be controlled and corrected. Second, policy- and decision-making are processes which include several steps. The utilisation of increased knowledge would have to go through several phases before making an impact. Knott and Wildavsky (1980) argued that the following phases are included (see also Susskind et al. 2001; Schryer-Roy 2005): • Transmission: results are transmitted to practitioners and professionals • Cognition: findings are read and understood • Reference: findings cited as a reference by stakeholders • Effort: efforts made to adopt results • Influence: results influences choices and decisions • Application: search led to applications by stakeholders Third, analysts and decision-makers often have divergent objectives, values and cultures. What is also referred to as the “two communities theory” (Caplan 1979) states that “substantial cultural differences impede interactions between analysts and decision makers and can often cause decision makers to ignore policy study results” (Webber 1992 as quoted in Susskind et al. 2001:12; Glover 1993). This study developed a scientific-economic case to invest in the natural environment. Analytical methods were used supported through participation by more senior-ranking officials in the City of Cape Town. It is well-known that analytical arguments can have large impacts on policy and practice, but on their own these arguments have very little chance of making an impact. There are barriers to the utilisation of such knowledge that need to be 238 acknowledged and planned for in an effective communication and decision-making process. The diffusion of rigorous knowledge into any decision-making context needs to be supported properly. Following a classification of Nutley et al. (2003), as adapted from Weiss (1979), on the different types of research utilisation, this study certainly attempts to make a contribution to changing decision-makers’ understanding of the importance of natural assets (i.e. conceptual utilisation). However, it is not expected that the research will feed directly into decision-making (i.e. instrumental utilisation). The research may be used as an instrument of persuasion (i.e. mobilisation of support) to invest in natural assets, and it is hoped that in the medium- to longer-term it has a wider influence on policy paradigms and beliefs. The focus of this study, and the focus of this chapter, is thus deliberately on the argument itself, as well as the transmission and cognition of the argument. Some aspects of this diffusion of knowledge are within the control of the research team and the client, and some are not. The objective of this chapter is to enhance the effectiveness of the argument to invest in the natural environment as far as possible within the scope of this project. This will be done by focusing on the elements of an effective argument (section 7.2), a characterisation of the receptor (section 7.3) as well as advice on the transmission and communication of the argument to the receptor (section 7.4). The learning will then be applied to the case of municipality of the City of Cape Town (section 7.5). 7.2 How arguments bring change To make a more effective case a recent UNDP/UNEP (2008) study argued that good data and evidence will have little impact or influence over decision-makers unless packaged carefully and communicated effectively (see Figure 7.1). The key points that should be borne in mind when making a case for environmental investment is that data should be packaged and presented in such a way that it is targeted, clear, relevant and credible. It is important to be clear on the reasons for environmental investments, and have a target audience who is willing and able to affect change. The main lines of reasoning, the key messages, the steps in the argument, and the supporting data and evidence also need to be very clear. Only relevant information needs to be presented, focused on the needs of a specific audience. Furthermore, the evidence must be credible, based on data from the area or sector the audience represents. The messenger also needs to be credible and could include a champion other than the researchers themselves. 239 PACKAGING THE DATA COMMUNICATING THE EVIDENCE Ensuring the evidence is meaningful to decision makers concerns, interests and mandates Targeted Clear Relevant Credible Ensuring that your recommendation are heard, understood and acted on effectively Verbal and written Succinct, concise and well illustrated Opportunities for follow up Figure 7.1: Making the case Source: UNDP/UNEP (2008) One can have a well-packaged argument, but this will have little impact if not heard, understood and acted upon. The package should ideally be a mix of verbal and written materials. Presentations need to be succinct, concise and well illustrated. Technical reports are not effective in getting messages across and need to be supported with shorter summaries such as a 2–3 page brief, clearly outlining key messages and recommendations. Opportunities for follow-up need to be given through alternative means of accessing the information and proactive management of further interaction. Even when the argument is packaged effectively and a communication strategy is designed, it is not guaranteed that economic arguments to invest in natural capital will be successful, but it certainly raises the chances of broader acceptance. The UNDP/UNEP (2008:39) concludes that: “Making the economic case is therefore rarely sufficient, alone, to influence decisionmaking in favour of the environment. It does, however, present a series of arguments which are based around indicators and policy goals which have resonance with decision-makers in finance ministries, treasuries, sectoral line agencies and local authorities. It also permits the environment to be considered on a more equal basis with other sectors when policies are formulated, land and resource choices made, investments planned and budgets allocated.” In addition to having an effective and well-packaged argument and a well-designed communication strategy, it would help to better understand the context wherein the receptor operates. It will also be insightful to understand whether this context has some level of emerging simplicity, and maybe even some level of predictability, that may help to focus both the argument and communication. 240 7.3 Understanding the receptor: The municipality and the budgeting process 7.3.1 Complexity and human behaviour Cities can be characterised as complex, dynamic systems (Batty 2008; Forrester 1969; Jacobs 1961). Municipalities, the management of the city, play an important role in such a system. Budgeting processes are important subsystems of the broader municipal system. In such systems, a healthy respect for uncertainty and surprise is appropriate. Attributing to social complexity is the individual decisions made by the millions of people living in the City, decisions which are not based on perfect information and are not motivated by economic rationale only (Beinhocker 2008). Complexity also emerges within less complex systems than cities, such as a municipality which consists out of several different line functions, physical offices, budgets, individuals and cultures to name a few, all of which interact and may lead to complex outcomes. The key driver of these outcomes is human behaviour. Human behaviour is mostly treated as exogenous to policy design or when included, it is assumed that humans will act according to certain theoretical constructs such as the rational maximisation of profits or an altruistic morality of saving the planet. Human behaviour is far more complex than this. Simple heuristic rules followed by individual agents can create very complex outcomes (Beinhocker 2008; De Wit 2008). Even within budgeting processes complexity emerges. This is evident from surprising bursts of spending and cutting which is the norm rather than the exception, leading to outcomes which cannot be predicted using a linear, incremental allocation rule. Without presenting a comprehensive argument for complexity in municipalities, any argument made within a complex, dynamic environment needs to be flexible, adaptable, open to often rapidly amplifying opportunities, and cautious about initially small, but possibly rapidly emerging risks to the argument. The idea that budgets change incrementally from one year to the next is firmly entrenched. It is often assumed that annual budgets tend to drift rather than shift abruptly (Lindblom 1959; Wildavsky 1964), implying that budgets should be based on the previous allocations and that increments need to be shared fairly across different categories or functions. As obvious as this argument may sound, no concrete evidence for such budgeting behaviour exists. To the contrary, empirical work on budget increases in the United States and elsewhere (incl. France, UK, Canada, Denmark, Germany, and Belgium) indicates that the percentage change in budgets show a high concentration of small changes around the mean, with fat tails or big changes on both ends (leptokurtic distribution). One can, therefore, expect a large number of small, incremental changes in budgets from year to year, followed by sudden rapid changes (Jones et al. 2009; Jones & Baumgarter 2005). 241 It is argued that underlying to this behaviour is an attention-driven decision-making model. Budget choices are not made based on perfectly rational, weighted indices, but rather driven by certain heuristic rules influenced by the positions of party leaders, by interest groups or by an emphasis on single-focus issues. In such a decision-making context errors of underestimation accumulate over time and lead to sudden rapid adjustments in budgeting when thresholds are exceeded. In this case, internal cognitive, organisational or institutional friction is overcome. Friction is expected to increase with coalition governments, low party discipline and where agreement among multiple governments is needed for single policy decisions. Better incremental budgeting can be expected if cognitive and organisational capacity is increased and institutional impediments to reactive policy-making are reduced (Jones et al. 2009; Jones & Baumgarter 2005). 7.3.2 Decision-making processes Decision-making processes are not nearly as linear as one might expect. The linear process of policy-making (March & Simon 1958; Simon 1977) can only take place on the basis that sufficient agreement exists on the criteria for choosing among different alternatives. Decision-makers themselves do not follow a perfectly rational approach towards applying normative criteria to alternative choices, and in the process a varied and complex decision-making process unfolds. The realities of the decision-making process itself need to be explicitly included when considering proposals for policy-making (Lindblom 1959; Thomas & Grindle 1990; De Greene 1993). These realities include understanding the interaction of networks and relationships, agency and practice – that is why certain subjects and alternatives are considered for the policy agenda while others are not – as well as knowledge and power dynamics in particular contexts (Keeley & Scoones 2003). This is also the case for the budgeting process. Although more predictable outcomes can be expected in administrative processes than within political processes, complex outcomes still emerge from such processes as well. 7.4 Understanding the transmission from argument to receptor The receptor cannot be viewed as a homogeneous, economically rational entity that will soak up any scientific research outputs that are pushed in its direction. Being aware of emerging complexity and the realities of the decision-making process adds to the importance of having an effective transmission mechanism. In this section attention is paid to two related issues: natural divergence between analysts and decision-makers, and the communication strategy to a complex and changing receptor. 7.4.1 Divergence It is well recognised that analysts and decision-makers generally have difficulty communicating effectively with each other (De Wit 2004; Glover 1993). Where analysts are intrinsically focused on searching some measure of the truth through rational science, or 242 what Lomas (1997) refers to as “enchantment with rationality”, decision-makers are more focused on finding a compromise by using an intuitive model (Choi et al. 2005). Decisionmakers are looking for policies that satisfy an electorate or accommodate certain pressure groups. The divergence theory has been criticised for attributing too much weight to the role of individual decision-makers and too little weight to the importance of the flow and dissemination of policy-relevant information (Susskind et al. 2006). This recognition of bigger forces at work than the mere relationships between analysts and decision-makers certainly has its appeal, but research on the barriers to the utilisation of research shows that personal relationships and trust between researchers and policy-makers continue to be important facilitators of the use of research evidence in policy-making (see Table 7.1) (Innvaer et al. 2002; IDRC/SDC 2008). Other factors that facilitate utilisation of research include the following: • the timeliness and relevance of the research • a summary with clear recommendations is included in the research • the research is of good quality • the research confirms current policies or endorses self-interest • there is sufficient pressure or demand for the research Barriers to research utilisation are the following: • the research challenges decision-makers’ values, ideas and ethics • power and budget struggles are evident • during political instability, high turn-over of staff or a lack of political will • researchers are politically naive or policy-makers are scientifically naive Some of these factors are clearly outside the control of the project team as illustrated in Table 7.1. 243 Table 7.1: Mapping facilitators and barriers to research utilisation Inside control Outside control Argument - Timeliness and relevance of research (+) - Summary with clear recommendations (+) - Good quality research (+) - Include effectiveness data (+) - High credibility of research team (+) - Political naivety of researchers (-) - Transmission - Personal contact with (senior) policy- - Personal contact with (very senior) policymakers (+) makers (+) - Briefly and clearly communicated (+) Receptor Community pressure for research (+) Client demand for research (+) Research confirming current policies (+) Research endorsing self-interest (+) Research challenging decision-makers’ values, ideas and ethics (-) - Scientific/Economic naivety of policymakers (-) - Power and budget struggles (-) - Political instability (-) - High turn-over policy-making staff (-) - Lack of political will (-) Source: Based on IDRC/SDC (2008) and Innvaer et al. (2002). Categorisation across Argument, Transmission and Receptor based on own analysis. 7.4.2 Communication Given the complex and changing receiving environment and an inherent divergence between analysts and decision-makers, a well thought through communication strategy becomes increasingly important. This is not only the case in the private sector, but also in the non-profit world (Hershey 2005). Communications is not merely a set of tools that are used if and when required, but it is essential to achieving core goals (IDRC/SDC 2008). According to Harold Lasswell (1948), a communications theorist and political scientist, communication theory is, in essence, the following: • Who • Says What • In Which Channel • To Whom • With What Effect? According to Lasswell (1948): “Scholars who study the ‘who’, the communicator, look into the factors that initiate and guide the act of communication. We call this subdivision of the field of research control analysis. Specialists who focus upon the ‘says what’ engage in content analysis. Those who look primarily at the radio, press, film, and other channels of communication are doing media analysis. When the principal concern is with the 244 persons reached by the media, we speak of audience analysis. If the question is the impact upon audiences, the problem is effect analysis.” The IDRC/SRC (2008) produced a helpful template to assist in with the development of a communication strategy. It raises important issues beyond what is immediately evident in the Laswell definition. The overall core purpose of communication needs to be clarified before populating which communication approaches or tools one will follow, a review of past communication efforts is handy, and the resources and timing of communication are made explicit. The template, however, was not explicit on who the communicator should be and one additional question was added (see Table 7.2). Table 7.2: Essentials of communications 1. Review: How have we been communicating in the past? 2. Objectives: What do we want our communications to achieve? Are our objectives SMART? 3. Communicator Who is doing to communicating? 4. Audience: Who is our audience? What information do they need to act upon our work? 5. Message: What is our message? Do we have one message for multiple audiences or multiple messages for multiple audiences? 6. Basket: What kinds of communication “product” will best capture and deliver our messages? 7. Channels: How will we promote and disseminate our products? What channels will we use? 8. Resources: What kind of budget do we have for this? Will this change in the future? What communications hardware and skills do we have? 9. Timing: What is our timeline? Would a staged strategy be the most appropriate? What special events or opportunities might arise? Does the work of like-minded organisations present possible opportunities? 10. Brand: Are all of our communications products “on brand”? How can we ensure that we are broadcasting the right message? 11. Feedback: Did our communications influence our audiences? How can we assess whether we used the right tools, were on budget and on time, and had any influence? Source: Adapted from IDRC/SDC 2008 245 7.5 Case study: Cape Town Municipality 7.5.1 Argument The argument in itself is contained in the first six chapters of this report and will not be repeated here. Proposed core messages are contained in Box 7.1. Box 7.1: Proposed core messages For: City of Cape Town leadership • • • • • Who wants to fulfill their mandate of service delivery in a financially sustainable manner, grow the economy and create jobs, our offering is a logical and tested argument to invest in and maintain natural resources such as waterbodies, rivers, clean air, parks, reserves and the coast, that provides a larger leverage on economic values derived from investment in natural assets than what overall municipal expenditure can achieve in the broader economy, unlike more traditional arguments for environmental funding that are not successful in raising awareness on the socio-economic importance of the natural environment, our argument proves that well-maintained natural assets provide a range of services to the residents of and visitors to Cape Town and are important enablers of economic development and the creation of employment. For: Directors of line departments • • • • • Who need to motivate for additional investment in natural resources such as waterbodies, rivers, clean air, parks, reserves and the coast, our argument will assist in preparing well-motivated cases for additional investment that provides you with the financial information needed to explain that investment in natural assets have a larger leverage on economic values derived from investment in natural assets than what overall municipal expenditure can achieve in the broader economy, unlike more traditional arguments that fails to highlight the financial rationale for investing in and maintaining natural assets our argument proves that well-maintained natural assets provide a range of services to the residents of and visitors to Cape Town and are important enablers of economic development and the creation of employment. What is important is how the argument of increased environmental investment is pursued for different kinds of environmental investments. Certain changes in environmental policy, and thus environmental investments that are likely to follow such policies, are more sensitive to certain variables than others. Although such a study was not available for Cape Town, a study on 69 big cities in the United States argued that a city’s embrace of environmental protection and natural resource conservation policies is largely a function of four variables namely socioeconomic status, partisanship, population change, and the state’s green policy context (Bowman 2006:6). In the case of Cape Town, socioeconomic inequalities and population growth specifically are both very pertinent variables and can be expected to have a significant effect on the adoption of environmental policies and, thus, environmental investments. For example, awareness of a programme to clear waterways of 246 alien vegetation is strongly positively related to socioeconomic status (Anderson et al. 2007). An explanation for environmental policy adoption was also presented in Bowman (2006): • A state green policy context, population change as well as mayoral power mostly explain pro-green land-use policies. • Socioeconomic status best explains pollution prevention, energy and natural resource conservation, and the creation of official sustainability structures. • Green demand also explains energy and natural resource conservation. • Green outreach programmes are explained by cities with better air quality, a green state policy context and a Democratic electorate. • Race, density and coastal location have negligible explanatory power in the adoption of any environmental policy. Although not conclusive for a developing City such as Cape Town, it does provide areas of likely influence. It has been pointed out, for example, that people living in Cape Town are better resource conservers than elsewhere in the country (Van Heerden 2009). Whether pro-green land-use policies are correlated to population change, a green policy context from national government and mayoral power in the case of Cape Town is not clear. To further refine the argument on where to invest would require more specific analysis across different environmental policies and expected change. 7.5.2 Receptor 7.5.2.1 Budget adjustments and attention to environmental signals It seems as if environmental signals have not yet translated into rapid budgetary changes in the City. Based on an analysis of City budgets from 2006–2009, these environmental signals have not led to convincing bursts of urgent budget adjustments. Year-on-year change in environmental OPEX was on average only 1.8% higher than the change in overall OPEX (not really evident of urgency), and environmental CAPEX was 14% lower than the change in overall CAPEX (see also Chapter 6). Overall budgets did increase rapidly over the last few years, suggesting bursts of spending, but no disproportionate bursts of environmental expenditure are evident. What is the source of friction and when will thresholds be reached? The cost of friction mechanisms in the budgetary processes is hard to quantify. If the environmental signal is strong enough and institutional friction pervasive over time, the benefits of responding will eventually outweigh the costs. With no convincing evidence of budget adjustments to invest in natural assets, the focus changes to a discussion on environmental signals in the system. For the City, there are some indications that benefits of responding to environmental signals are accumulating in the municipal system. For example, stated goals and targets such as those contained in the 247 Integrated Metropolitan Environmental Policy (IMEP 2008) are not indicators of outcome, but do provide an indicator of increased pressure and potential policy action. It has taken the City a long time to develop this environmental base. Earlier work indicates that not all departments bought into the overall concept of a cross-sectoral team of the IMEP due to the frequent change of political and management in the City (Pieterse 2002). Some of the City’s leadership have included explicit reference to the importance of the environment in their recent speeches. Noting that there are environmental signals, an important question in focusing arguments is what these signals are emphasising. Based on an analysis of search terms in all media releases, speeches and documents housed on the City of Cape Town’s website from 2001 onwards, environmental signals are strongest on the natural assets ‘water’, ‘river’, ‘mountain’, ‘garden’ and ‘beach’ and weakest for terms such as ‘open space’, ‘fynbos’ and ‘wetlands’ (see Table 7.3). Ecosystems goods and services related to the terms ‘tourism’, ‘fire’, ‘waste’, ‘stormwater’, ‘recreation’, and ‘conservation’ were mentioned most. The least attention went to terms such as ‘sense of place’, ‘air quality’, ‘drought’ and ‘alien’. Although this is not conclusive evidence of relative importance of environmental issues in the City, it does give an indication of where the relatively higher and lower signals are. This information is important in the development of a more focused argument and communication strategy. Higher signals reflect current policy choices, and are more prone to making effective arguments. 248 Table 7.3: Number of hits Environmental signals based on terms used in media releases, speeches and documents by the City of Cape Town Natural Assets EGS Sustainability Development >1001 Business Infrastructure Education 501-1000 Water Community Road 251-500 Fire Waste Stormwater Recreation Sustainable Green Environment Housing School Public transport Economic development Tourism Health Police Sport 100-250 River Mountain Garden Beach Conservation Amenities Sanitation Clean Parks Refuse Nature Natural Environmental Resource Land Use Industry Economic growth Soccer Energy Poverty Money Food HIV Job creation 51-100 Tree Plants Coast Table Mountain Nature reserves Water quality Fish Pollution Biodiversity Sewage Flood Climate change Urban planning Sustainability Climate Informal settlement University Urban renewal Drug Employment Waterfront Cricket <50 Open space Wetland Fynbos Kirstenbosch Air quality Alien Drought Sense of place Urban design Spatial planning Bus rapid transit Urban edge Rugby Energy efficiency Film Sea wall Note: Analysis done on 27 June 2009 A measurement of the demand for issues related to the environment was done by using trends derived from search volumes on the internet. Based on analysis using Google Trends, the environmental signal by internet users within the Western Cape is predominantly focused on natural assets such as ‘water’, ‘beach’, ‘fish’, ‘river’ and ‘mountain’ and on ecosystems services such as ‘tourism’ (see Table 7.4). 249 Almost no attention is paid to issues containing search words such as ‘stormwater’, ‘recreation’, ‘water quality’ and ‘biodiversity’ and very little attention is paid to issues containing words such as ‘alien’, ‘waste’ and ‘conservation’. Higher signals would better reflect the public’s attention, and support a broader acceptance of arguments. Table 7.4: Cape Environmental signals based on search volume on the internet in the Western Search term Google score Search term Google score Cape Town 15.2 Money 1 Music 5.55 Coast 0.86 Hotel 4.6 Fire 0.74 Weather 3.9 Nature 0.64 Jobs 3.9 Parks 0.3 Water 2.24 Shark 0.24 Rugby 2.1 Table Mountain 0.18 Stellenbosch 1.88 Nature reserve 0.14 Beach 1.44 Kirstenbosch 0.14 Tourism 1.42 Conservation 0.1 Fish 1.2 Waste 0.08 River 1.18 Alien 0.04 Mountain 1 Stormwater, Recreation, Water quality, Biodiversity 0 Note: Search volume relative to the word ‘money’. Analysis done on 27 June 2009. It can be concluded that natural assets and ecosystem services related to the terms ‘water’, ‘beach’, ‘river’, ‘mountain’ and ‘tourism’ provide the strongest combined environmental signals. Internet users are mainly higher income households and their views are, therefore, not representative of the total population. There is some evidence that lower income groups indicate a strong preference for environmental services such as a clean and natural environment as well as recreation, but more immediate issues such as jobs, housing, education and income dominate perceptions of what a “good life” entails. In a survey done in the Wallacedene reported by Clark (2002) aspects of a good life were ranked. Aspects such as ‘good area to live’ and ‘recreation’ were ranked 18th and 27th out of a total of 30 options. In total, 68% of respondents indicated that ‘Living in a clean natural environment’ is essential. In another social survey in Khayelitsha (QSJ Consultants & University of Stellenbosch c2007), 64% of respondents were dissatisfied with the cleanliness of the area 250 and 72% ranked recreational facilities as being least accessible. A total of 18% of respondents had problems with flooding. A comprehensive baseline study on social and environmental preferences is, as far as the authors know, not available for Cape Town. What can be argued at this stage is that stark differences exist across socioeconomic groupings, but all have some level of environmental preference. Whether these environmental preferences are accumulating to such an extent that sudden budget adjustments are likely to follow, cannot be stated conclusively yet. It can be concluded that there are strong enough environmental signals both from within the municipality and from user groups in the City to conclude that attention to environmental issues is prevalent. 7.5.2.2 Budget process Apart from the complexity of budget allocations, and accumulating attention to environmental preferences from the municipality and people living in the City, it would be well worth understanding how the budgeting process works. The budgeting process followed by the City of Cape Town is described in Table 7.5. Usually the process starts in August/September when additional expenditure requirements are listed. (In 2009/10 the process already started in July.) These requirements are evaluated in October through a diverse set of hearings. During this time, politicians also add additional requests or support requests from the different departments. During November/December a 3-year expenditure and revenue framework is presented to the Mayoral Committee or the City’s leadership. 251 Table 7.5: Budget process, City of Cape Town Time Description of current situation Key bodies/players August/September Financial manager of each department consults with Financial Managers in each Directors, who in turn consult with their Managers on Department additional expenditure needs. Every department lists additional requirements. At this stage this is not informed by one overall strategy or sectoral plans. In practice it is to be seen how much IDPs determine these additional requirements. At this stage no specific allocation to the “Environment” October Requirements are directed to Budget Committee via Budget Committee Budget Department who evaluates additional Budget Department requirements through a diverse series of hearings. At this stage politicians also join the process with additional requests or supporting requests from departments. A Budget Committee evaluates commitments in terms of strategy, priority, affordability, social compacts, sustainability, etc. November/begin December Budget Committee recommends a sustainable and Budget Committee affordable multi-year MTREF to Mayoral Committee for adoption Begin December Report to Mayoral Committee with recommendations on Mayoral Committee the MTREF which indicates the boundaries for the budgeting process and assures sustainability and viability of the City. The report contains details on expenditure growth and curtailment and ad hoc allocations to specific programmes. February/March Mayoral Committee takes budget to MFA Mayoral Committee From a theoretical perspective the budgetary process would follow on a well-defined City strategy. This strategy is further worked out in specific sector plans and specific functions that support such plans. Within such a context the strategy provides a framework that is reviewed every number of years. IDP, for example is reviewed every five years, whereas the financial budgets are prepared in detail for a period of three years. In practice, this neat construction of a strategy–planning–budget process does not always hold. Strategy, for example, is continually evolving. At this stage the City is still developing a City Development Strategy (CDS), expected to start providing direction from 2010/11 252 onwards. Specifically, this will succeed the earlier Metropolitan Spatial Development Framework. There are also several unknowns that influence the budgeting process itself. Issues such as the curtailment of revenue sources, inflationary pressures, etc. have implications for City budgets as well. These issues place a lot of pressure on the financial viability of the City and often increase pressure for cost-cutting measures. On the revenue side, a policy of infrastructure-investment led growth for the City has led to substantial increases in rates and tariffs in most recent years. Allocations from the national government are also based on a set of decision rules mainly influenced by statistics on and definitions of indigent population. Such definitions drive the allocation of unconditional grants. The disadvantage for Cape Town is that such allocation rules are currently based on 2001 Census figures. The City of Cape Town particularly is negatively influenced, as inmigration of mainly indigent people to the City has been relatively high since 2001. Conditional grants are linked to specific purposes and have seen robust increases in recent years, but this cannot be sustained. Metros will have to become less reliant on grants to be more sustainable in the longer-term (Swilling & De Wit 2008). The Total Municipal Account that will be paid by consumers is foremost in the minds of those who are drafting the budget. The model that supports the Medium Term Revenue Framework has a very extensive revenue part. However, with recent and projected largely unknown double-digit tariff increases in electricity, the TMA has become less predictable. The focus is shifting to a TMA, excluding electricity price impacts, for the simple reason that such electricity tariff increases are entirely beyond the control of the City. On the expenditure side, massive ad hoc expenditures have been included such as the 2010 World Cup and the Bus Rapid Transfer System. Some strategic focus areas, such as the focus on energy efficiency, are politically-influenced choices for which IDP Strategic Focus Areas were specifically created. Political champions could exercise a great influence on the inclusion of certain items in the budgets. Balanced budgets are required by law. Some exceptional items from a legislative/audit imperative are rolled-over such as provisions for retirement and medical funds. Given the way the budgeting process works, as described above, specific rather than general arguments for investment in natural assets have a greater chance of being accepted. It is easier to motivate for a specific function (e.g. Parks), than to motivate for an issue that impacts on several sectors or departments. Real, larger-scale changes in allocations from one department to another is uncommon in public sector organisations. Environmental issues, however, are often cross-cutting, and will, for a large part, resort under “Strategy & Planning”, where at least 30% of the budget in that department is discretionary. 253 7.5.3 Transmission and communication The communications template was populated specifically for communicating a business case for investing in natural assets in the City of Cape Town (see Box 7.2). Although most of the decisions on communications need to be taken beyond the project team, we have given an interpretation and advice based upon our best knowledge as developed throughout the study. Box 7.2: Investing in natural assets: Communications template 1. Review: How have we been communicating in the past? • It is the first time that a comprehensive economic argument for investing in natural assets is made. • Earlier communications to the City were restricted to specific valuation case studies with limited reach and influence. The focus of these studies was also mainly academic and helped to create a baseline from which a broader argument could be constructed. 2. Objectives: What do we want our communications to achieve? Are our objectives SMART? • Communications need to support the objective of the overall project which is to make an economically rational case for investing in natural assets in the City. • Communications also need to remind, educate and sensitise politicians and city leadership that specific Council resolutions have already been made committing the City to investment in natural assets such as the conservation of the remaining biodiversity, etc. • Communications need to clarify that there is a responsibility to ensure that responsible City line functions are capacitated to achieve objectives of conserving, maintaining and enhancing natural assets. • Investment in natural assets supports value creation in the broader economy and adds value to rich and poor, residents and visitors, the country as a whole and even to international beneficiaries. • The tremendous loss of natural assets, especially natural biota, instills a sense of urgency to increase investments to counter this value destruction not only in the City economy. • The municipality, with the mandate of service delivery, needs to take the lead in investing in natural assets under its control. 3. Communicator: Who is doing the communicating? • Communication should be done by someone who has credibility and respect with the City’s leadership, someone who can easily convey key messages, and someone who cognitively understands what the argument is all about. 4. Audience: Who is our audience? What information do they need to act upon our work? • Our audience is first the City’s leadership who has to influence policy choices. • Secondly our audiences are those who have the power to influence budget allocations once policy choices have been made. • Possible forums for presentation are the following: • Executive Management Team committee (EMT) • Service Co-ordination Subcommittee (SECOS) • Strategy and Integrated Development Plan Subcommittee (STRIDE). 5. Message: What is our message? Do we have one message for multiple audiences or multiple messages for multiple audiences? • The key message is that, from an economic point of view, there is convincing evidence to invest in natural assets. • This message has been presented in financial terms. • In a nutshell this message will not change, but needs to be packaged differently for different audiences. • Our message needs to be presented in a way that opens up an agenda: in any case we should communicate in a way that allows implementation; which means that in all presentations, and although we are not mandated to make strategic choices to allocate budget to such or such specific project, we need to make it clear what it is we want to achieve, and the money we need to achieve it. 254 Box 7.2: Investing in natural assets: Communications template (cont.) 6. Basket: What kinds of communications “products” will best capture and deliver our messages? • Options include, but are not limited to: • A 250-page technical report • A 10–15-page summary for decision makers • A 2–3-page document with key arguments and recommendations • One paragraph on the core message that can be used in various communications • Core messages: the idea is to have a speech prepared in order to make an impression in just 30 seconds or so, should an opportunity present itself • Information session to line departments • Presentation to key City committees (many of the City’s key thinkers sit in these committees, which provides us with a chance to address our argument to the right people) • Other options that can be explored include using the internet, a popular document for the public, a roller banner and color brochures. 7. Channels: How will we promote and disseminate our products? What channels will we use? • Presentation to key committees of the City • Specific interactions with Mayco members • General feedback session to interested line managers and senior staff 8.Resources: What kind of budget do we have for this? Will this change in the future? What communications hardware and skills do we have? • The project budget allows for technical reports and summaries. Anything beyond that would have to be done from separate budgets. 9.Timing: What is our timeline? Would a staged strategy be the most appropriate? What special events or opportunities might arise? Does the work of like-minded organisations present possible opportunities? • In one sense the timelines are very short. The budgetary process has already started and additional requirements need to be listed by departments soon. • In another sense, the argument to invest in natural assets is timeless under situations of increased scarcity of natural assets and high quality ecosystem goods and services. • The message needs to be repeated often over a longer period and focused on multiple audiences. • The short-term objective is to increase budget allocation towards the environment; the longer-term objective to convey the argument. • Rushing the communication process can be a mistake and only focusing on achieving the short-term objectives might deprive us from the full benefit of the argument in the long run. Time gives chance to consolidate and convey the argument. 10. Brand: Are all of our communications products “on brand”? How can we ensure that we are broadcasting the right message? • It is important to brand the message as either internally-generated and falling under the Cape Town brand, or as external advice provided by a group of consultants. • The Cape Town brand might require additional document editing and layout which is beyond the project team’s budget, but may add to the acceptance within the City. This is done by Corporate Communications in line with rules for City branding. 11.Feedback: Did our communications influence our audiences? How can we assess whether we used the right tools, were on budget and on time, and had any influence? • This is beyond the scope of the research project, but essential to be explicitly tied into the communication strategies of the departments investing in natural assets. Source: Developed with Project Steering Committee 24 July 2009. 255 7.6 Conclusion The effectiveness of the argument to invest in natural assets is not only dependent on the argument itself, but also on the receptor as well as the transmission and communication. Arguments and the data on which it is based should be packaged and presented in such a way that it is targeted, clear, relevant and credible. The receptor, or the municipality, does not operate in a mechanistic way and emerging complexity in the system is often based on very simple heuristic rules followed by decisionmakers in the municipality. This is also the case for budgeting processes. There is empirical evidence that budget allocations are non-incremental and often include sudden bursts of spending and cutting. The main reasons for this emerging complexity are the attentiondriven choices and friction in adjusting allocations. Errors of under-adjustment accumulate up to a point where cognitive, organisational or institutional friction is overcome. In the case of the Cape Town municipality, although broader budgetary allocations did go through a period of sudden spending, there is no conclusive evidence of any disproportionate sudden bursts of environmental expenditure. There are adequate, strong environmental signals both from within the municipality and from user groups in the City to conclude that attention to environmental issues is prevalent. Natural assets and ecosystems services related to the terms ‘water’, ‘beach’, ‘river’, ‘mountain’ and ‘tourism’ provide the strongest combined environmental signals. Decision-making processes themselves also contribute to these emerging complexities. These processes are not linear, and are influenced by different realities of the political process, such as policy networks, the disproportionate influence of certain policy choices on the municipalities’ agenda through policy champions and the influence of knowledge in power dynamics. The budgetary process for the City of Cape Town follows an orderly process, but there are sufficient opportunities for politicians to include certain items on the budget or influence departmental allocations. In the transmission of the argument to the receptor two main issues have been identified namely, the divergence between the culture of analysts and decision-makers, and the need for an effective communications strategy. Analysts and decision-makers have different objectives which have to be acknowledged and planned for in the transmission of the argument. Important facilitators of research utilisation remain personal contact and trust between decision-makers and researchers, and together with the quality and relevance of the argument, these remain the factors that are under the control of a project team advancing an argument. In this project, lots of resources and time was invested in building relationships with City senior staff and line managers through one-to-one meetings as well as broader workshops. 256 A communication strategy starts with Lasswell’s maxim: Who Says What In Which Channel To Whom With What Effect? A communication strategy is essential in achieving the core goal of the project, namely to motivate for investment in natural assets. A template for effective communication was presented to assist in the development of a communications strategy for the argument presented by this project. 257 Discussion and conclusion Natural assets, such as waterbodies, rivers, clean air, parks, reserves and the coast, generate a flow of services that have considerable value to people living in and visiting the City of Cape Town. These values are generally not well understood and have as yet not influenced policy choices and budget allocations to invest in natural assets. The main argument presented in this report is that there is an economic rationale for investing in and maintaining natural assets in the City. To reinvest some of the proceeds of growth into underlying natural assets is not only a sound financial management principle, but there are also indications are that it can leverage relatively high economic value in the broader City economy. In addition, the ‘free services’ produced by natural assets also provide a saving to the municipality’s cost of service delivery. This is in stark contrast to more traditional arguments for increased budget allocations to the environment which did not succeed in raising awareness on the socioeconomic value of a clean and healthy natural environment. In this report it is argued that well-maintained natural assets provide a range of services to the residents of and visitors to the City of Cape Town and these assets are important enablers of economic development. Based on an economic valuation methodology that was presented to and tested by City senior staff, it is conservatively estimated that the City’s natural assets yield a flow of services valued at R4 billion per annum, within a range of between R2 billion and R6 billion per annum. These values flow to a wide range of beneficiaries including tourists and residents visiting natural recreational areas such as parks, lakes and beaches, people living in areas prone to flooding, fire and coastal storm surges, as well as entrepreneurs and business owners involved in economic activities such as film-making and advertising. Many other groups were identified, but in consultation with the City we focused on those who are perceived to be the main beneficiaries. The flow of these values needs to be protected and enhanced to create additional value to the economy and employment. Current expenditure on the environment by the municipality is estimated at R370 million per annum on operations and R110 million per annum on capital investments. This falls within a range of between 2 and 2.5% of total expenditure. The value leveraged by this expenditure is higher than what is achieved by total municipal expenditure. For every R1 spent by the municipality in 2008/9 approximately R7.30 of value added was generated in the City economy. For every R1 of expenditure on the environment by the municipality almost R8.30 of ecosystem goods and services were generated when a flow of R4 billion per annum is used. This is a conservative estimate and the ratio can be as high as R13.50 when a flow of R6 billion per annum is used. This means that the leverage of municipal expenditure on the environmental sector is considerably higher, i.e. between 1.2 and 2 times, than that of municipal expenditure on the City economy. It cannot be expected that investment by the municipality in nature’s services needs to pay for itself immediately and revenue streams will have to be identified to achieve a balanced 258 budget. There is a case to be made that the general public and visitors benefit from a sustained flow of ecosystem goods and services. The fact that the City of Cape Town is in the middle of an internationally acclaimed biodiversity hotspot suggests that benefits are enjoyed far wider. This adds up to an argument to generate revenue from various sources namely the general public, visitors to the City, national and provincial intergovernmental fiscal transfers and international donors. If such services benefit the private sector as well, partnerships to share costs are also an option. In the further development of specific programmes and projects to invest and maintain natural assets by the municipality, infrastructural costs, revenue sources, partnerships, etc. need to be specified as clearly as possible. Cape Town is positioning itself as a global player. International tourism and global trade remains essential features of the City’s well-diversified economy. The business community aspires to a city of inspiration and innovation. One of the aspirations is that the City needs to be green and beautiful. The City’s leadership is focused on providing an enabling environment for growth and development through, for instance, effective service delivery. The Mayor is on record stating that he wants to see an increase in the rate of capital investment in the City. Some refer to an infrastructure-led economic growth. None of these visions and objectives is competing with investments in the City’s natural environment. On the contrary, investing and maintaining the City’s natural assets or ‘ecological infrastructure’, yields highly valuable services which provide the backbone for value addition and employment in City’s economy. Investment projects that achieve the most efficient and effective levels of service delivery and returns to the City economy will need to be defined. There is a risk that these value streams will continue drying up if the degradation and neglect of natural assets is not reversed. 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