Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
Impact of Mandatory Retirement of 6c Covered Employees
An additional factor that needs to be considered when analyzing whether gaps are forecasted to
occur in the NWFF hierarchy is the impact of the mandatory retirement age for employees
covered by the 6c retirement benefit. As discussed earlier, this assessment was unable to
identify exactly what NWFF positions are covered by the benefit. The analysis does account for
the employees that billed 51% or more of their time to fire and are covered by the 6c benefit and
assumes that these employees also hold positions that carry the 6c designation.
The following figures display the distribution of the mandatory retirement age of NWFF
employees covered by the 6c benefit in FY 2009. Note that the distribution is a snapshot in time
at the end of FY 2009 and does not represent a stagnant workforce forecast (i.e., employees
will move into and out of depicted positions and the distributions may change over time).
Discussion with regard to forecasted trends follows each individual graph.
6c Employees in Permanent Direct Fire Positions
Figure Ex8.1 below depicts the distribution of mandatory retirements of 6c covered employees
that held permanent positions in the Direct Fire position category in FY 2009. Important to note
is that the graph represents 5,948 of the 7,261 employees (82%) that held permanent Direct
Fire positions in FY 2009. As shown, 12% of the 6c covered employees will reach mandatory
retirement in 2020 or earlier. An additional 10% will reach mandatory retirement by 2025.
Again, these percentages are a snapshot in time and representative of the FY 2009 population
only.
Figure Ex8.1 – Distribution of Mandatory Retirements of 6c Covered Employees holding
Permanent Direct Fire Positions in FY 2009
NWFF
Page Ex8.1
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
6c Employees in Permanent Fire Management Program Positions
Figure Ex8.2 below depicts the distribution of mandatory retirements of 6c covered employees
that held permanent positions in the Fire Management Program position category in FY 2009.
Important to note is that the graph represents 729 of the 1,293 employees (56%) that held
permanent Fire Management Program positions in FY 2009. As shown, 44% of the 6c covered
employees will reach mandatory retirement in 2020 or earlier. An additional 21% will reach
mandatory retirement by 2025. Again, these percentages are a snapshot in time and
representative of the FY 2009 population only.
Figure Ex8.2 – Distribution of Mandatory Retirements of 6c Covered Employees holding
Permanent Fire Management Program Positions in FY 2009
Initially these percentages are alarming, but a few things should be considered. First, the 44%
actually refers to approximately 320 of the 1,293 employees (25%) in the Fire Management
Program category in FY 2009. Additionally, the Fire Management Program positions by
definition are positions at the highest management levels of the NWFF organization. By nature,
employees holding these positions will be both older and have a higher average LOS than is
seen in the Direct Fire category. As such, the distance from their mandatory retirement age of
57, if they are covered by 6c, will be shorter than that seen at entry level NWFF positions.
Figure Ex8.2 above is merely showing that 44% of the 6c covered employees in Fire
Management Program positions are 46 years old or older and that 65% of these employees are
41 years or older.
NWFF
Page Ex8.2
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
6c Employees in Permanent Forestry/Range Tech Positions
Figure Ex8.3 below depicts the distribution of mandatory retirements of 6c covered employees
that held permanent Forestry/Range Tech positions in FY 2009. Important to note is that the
graph represents 2,919 of the 3,725 employees (78%) that held permanent Forestry/Range
Tech positions in FY 2009. As shown, 10% of the 6c covered employees will reach mandatory
retirement in 2020 or earlier. An additional 8% will reach mandatory retirement by 2025. Again,
these percentages are a snapshot in time and representative of the FY 2009 population only.
Figure Ex8.3 – Distribution of Mandatory Retirements of 6c Covered Employees holding
Permanent Forestry/Range Tech Positions in FY 2009
The total Forestry/Range Tech population is showing an overall average decrease of 0.7%
annually. While of not significant concern to the overall NWFF population, the decrease has a
bigger impact for the BLM and BIA because it represents a much higher percentage of their total
Forestry/Range Tech population. The impact of 6c retirement will impact the BIA and BLM and
in conjunction with the decreasing population trend will become a concern for them individually
before it is of concern for the NWFF.
In addition, the average time that employees remain in Forestry/Range Tech positions is limited
and therefore the distribution above becomes irrelevant beyond a certain point because the
entire population will have turned over by that point in the future. Table Ex8.1 below identifies
the average age and LOS of employees that enter and leave Forestry/Range Tech positions.
As shown below, the average new employee has approximately 4.6 years of service and
generally moves to a new position or separates within eight years of starting their position. The
LOS for retirements is irrelevant to this analysis because these positions most likely represent
employees that have returned to higher graded Forestry/Range Tech positions after advancing
through the NWFF hierarchy in other positions.
NWFF
Page Ex8.3
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
The movement of employees out of Forestry/Range Tech positions paired with a population
change of less than 1% on average indicates that the distribution shown in Figure Ex8.3 above
is likely to look the same as time moves on with a smaller population (around 10%) to continue
to reach mandatory retirement within 10 to 12 years of the snapshot date. Significant increases
in population changes or a stagnation in employee movement would result in changes to the
distribution of mandatory retirements in the future.
Table Ex8.1 – Average Age and LOS of Employees that Moved from Permanent
Forestry/Range Tech Positions
FS
Average Age New
Employees
Average LOS New
Employees
Average Age Separations
Average LOS Separations
Average Age Retirements
Average LOS Retirements
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to FMO
Average LOS Moved to FMO
NWFF
BLM
BIA
FWS
Average
of the
Average
NPS
29.0
31.3
35.5
30.7
31.4
31.6
2.3
5.8
6.4
3.3
5.3
4.6
38.8
10.7
34.5
9.2
36.2
8.3
32.3
5.5
31.6
6.9
34.7
8.1
56.5
31.2
61.0
25.3
64.0
28.8
58.0
31.0
59.0
29.0
59.7
29.1
27.0
N/A
23.5
N/A
N/A
25.3
1.8
N/A
3.0
N/A
N/A
2.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
30.6
27.9
37.3
29.7
N/A
31.4
4.4
4.2
5.0
3.5
N/A
4.3
40.5
32.1
35.6
34.9
N/A
35.8
12.7
7.8
9.4
7.3
N/A
9.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
40.0
16.0
34.0
8.7
N/A
N/A
37
12.4
Page Ex8.4
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
6c Employees in Permanent Lead Forestry/Range Tech Positions
Figure Ex8.4 below depicts the distribution of mandatory retirements of 6c covered employees
that held permanent Lead Forestry/Range Tech positions in FY 2009. Important to note is that
the graph represents 922 of the 973 employees (95%) that held permanent Lead
Forestry/Range Tech positions in FY 2009. As shown, 6% of the 6c covered employees will
reach mandatory retirement in 2020 or earlier. An additional 6% will reach mandatory
retirement by 2025. Again, these percentages are a snapshot in time and representative of the
FY 2009 population only.
Figure Ex8.4 – Distribution of Mandatory Retirements of 6c Covered Employees holding
Permanent Lead Forestry/Range Tech Positions in FY 2009
The total Lead Forestry/Range Tech population is showing an overall average increase of 0.6%
annually. While of not significant concern to the overall NWFF population, the FS experienced a
decreasing trend with regard to the number of Lead Forestry/Range Tech positions. The impact
of 6c retirement will have a higher impact on the FS NWFF population, although it may not be of
significant concern with regard to the overall NWFF population.
Table Ex8.2 below identifies the average age and LOS of employees that enter and leave Lead
Forestry/Range Tech positions. As shown below, the average new employee has
approximately 6.7 years of service. In the event that an employee holds the position until
retirement, the average LOS at retirement is 26 years, approximately 19.3 year after beginning
the position. Therefore, theoretically the entire Lead Forestry/Range Tech population will have
turned over by 2028.
NWFF
Page Ex8.5
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
The movement of employees out of Lead Forestry/Range Tech positions paired with a
population change of less than 1% on average indicates that the distribution shown in Figure
Ex8.4 above is likely to look the same as time moves on with a smaller population (around 6%)
to continue to reach mandatory retirement within 10 to 12 years of the snapshot date.
Significant increases in population changes or stagnation in employee movement would result in
changes to the distribution of mandatory retirements in the future.
Table Ex8.2 – Average Age and LOS of Employees that Moved from Permanent Lead
Forestry/Range Tech Positions
FS
Average Age New
Employees
Average LOS New
Employees
BLM
BIA
FWS
Average
of the
Average
NPS
33.2
28.4
36.8
31.1
32.8
32.5
5.6
3.4
11.8
6.2
6.3
6.7
Average Age Separations
33.7
27.4
35.5
33.8
34.3
32.9
Average LOS Separations
7.9
4.6
7.3
4.8
7.8
6.5
55.9
30.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
52.0
22.0
26.0
30.1
N/A
37.0
N/A
N/A
33.6
4.7
N/A
4.0
N/A
N/A
4.4
32.3
31.7
37.3
33.0
N/A
33.6
5.5
7.8
8.0
8.5
N/A
7.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
38.9
29.1
38.0
34.7
N/A
35.2
12.0
5.0
6.5
6.1
N/A
7.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.0
7.0
N/A
N/A
34.0
7.0
Average Age Retirements
Average LOS Retirements
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to FMO
Average LOS Moved to FMO
NWFF
Page Ex8.6
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
6c Employees in Permanent Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech Positions
Figure Ex8.5 below depicts the distribution of mandatory retirements of 6c covered employees
that held permanent Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech positions in FY 2009. Important to note
is that the graph represents 1,518 of the 1,633 employees (93%) that held permanent
Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech positions in FY 2009. As shown, 19% of the 6c covered
employees will reach mandatory retirement in 2020 or earlier. An additional 17% will reach
mandatory retirement by 2025.
Figure Ex8.5 – Distribution of Mandatory Retirements of 6c Covered Employees holding
Permanent Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech Positions in FY 2009
The total Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech population is showing an overall average decrease
of 2.9% annually. While of not significant concern to the overall NWFF population (i.e., less
than 5%), the DOI Bureaus experienced steady Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech position
populations on average over the five years while the FS experienced a decreasing population
trend. This additional information paired with the fact that FS has approximately 62% of the
permanent positions indicates that the decreasing trend is a significant concern to the FS, while
not as much of one for the entire NWFF organization. The impact of 6c retirement will have a
higher impact on the FS NWFF population, although it may not be of significant concern with
regard to the overall NWFF population.
Table Ex8.3 below identifies the average age and LOS of employees that enter and leave
Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech positions. As shown below, the average new employee has
approximately 8.8 years of service. In the event that an employee holds the position until
retirement, the average LOS at retirement is 27.5 years, approximately 18.7 years after
beginning the position. Therefore, theoretically the entire Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech
population will have turned over by 2028.
NWFF
Page Ex8.7
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
The movement of employees out of Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech positions paired with a
population change of -2.9% on average indicates that the distribution shown in Figure Ex8.5
above is likely to change as time moves on. If current population trends hold, the percentage of
employees reaching mandatory retirement within 10 to 12 years of the snapshot date will
continue to increase and will do so at a faster rate if the population decrease becomes larger.
Significant changes in population reduction or stagnation in employee movement would result in
changes to the distribution of mandatory retirements in the future.
Table Ex8.3 – Average Age and LOS of Employees that Moved from Permanent
Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech Positions
FS
Average Age New
Employees
Average LOS New
Employees
Average Age Separations
Average LOS Separations
Average Age Retirements
Average LOS Retirements
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to FMO
Average LOS Moved to FMO
NWFF
BLM
BIA
FWS
Average
of the
Average
NPS
35.2
33.5
36.9
34.5
35.4
35.1
7.0
9.2
10.9
8.0
9.1
8.8
38.1
9.7
35.7
11.4
38.7
10.7
38.3
7.5
37.5
11.2
37.7
10.1
54.2
30.2
53.0
27.9
49.5
24.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
52.2
27.5
31.6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
31.6
7.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.0
41.1
36.0
45.2
37.0
N/A
39.8
13.1
11.1
15.0
10.7
N/A
12.5
37.4
32.3
43.0
N/A
N/A
37.6
7.4
6.8
11.0
N/A
N/A
8.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
55.5
30.5
39.9
14.4
35.0
12.0
32.5
7.0
40.8
14.3
40.7
15.6
Page Ex8.8
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
6c Employees in Permanent FMO Positions
Figure Ex8.6 below depicts the distribution of mandatory retirements of 6c covered employees
that held permanent FMO positions in FY 2009. Important to note is that the graph represents
531 of the 715 employees (74%) that held permanent Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech
positions in FY 2009. As shown, 41% of the 6c covered employees will reach mandatory
retirement in 2020 or earlier. An additional 13% will reach mandatory retirement by 2025.
Again, these percentages are a snapshot in time and representative of the FY 2009 population
only.
Figure Ex8.6 – Distribution of Mandatory Retirements of 6c Covered Employees holding
Permanent FMO Positions in FY 2009
As with Figure Ex8.2 in the Fire Management Program section, these percentages are initially
alarming, but a few things should be considered. First, the 41% actually refers to approximately
217 of the 715 employees (30%) holding permanent FMO positions in FY 2009. Additionally,
the FMO positions are generally not line positions within the Direct Fire hierarchy. Employees
holding these positions will be both older and have higher average LOS than other Direct Fire
positions. As such, the time to mandatory retirement, if they are covered by 6c, will be shorter
than that seen at entry level NWFF positions. Figure Ex8.6 above is merely showing that 41%
of the 6c covered employees in permanent FMO positions are 46 years old or older and that
64% of these employees are 41 years or older.
The total FMO population is showing an overall average increase of 0.3% annually. While of
not significant concern to the overall NWFF population, the NPS and FWS experienced a
decreasing population trend over the five analysis years. The 6c mandatory retirement will
impact the NPS and FWS individual and will become a concern for them individually before it is
of concern for the NWFF.
NWFF
Page Ex8.9
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
In addition, the average time that employees remain in FMO positions is limited and therefore
the distribution above become irrelevant beyond a certain point because the entire population
will have turned over by that point in the future. Table Ex8.4 below identifies the average age
and LOS of employees that enter and leave FMO positions. As shown below, the average new
employee has approximately 17.1 years of service. In the event that an employee holds the
position until retirement, the average LOS at retirement is 30.2 years, approximately 13.1 years
after beginning the position. Therefore, theoretically the entire FMO population will have turned
over by 2022.
The movement of employees out of FMO positions paired with a population change of less than
1% on average indicates that the distribution shown in Figure Ex8.6 above is likely to look the
same as time moves on. Significant increases in population changes or stagnation in employee
movement would result in changes to the distribution of mandatory retirements in the future.
Table Ex8.4 – Average Age and LOS of Employees that Moved from Permanent FMO
Positions
FS
Average Age New
Employees
Average LOS New
Employees
Average Age Separations
Average LOS Separations
Average Age Retirements
Average LOS Retirements
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Aid
Average Age Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to Lead
Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average LOS Moved to
Supervisory Forestry Tech
Average Age Moved to FMO
Average LOS Moved to FMO
NWFF
BLM
BIA
FWS
NPS
Average
of the
Average
45.5
44.9
41.5
43.0
43.0
43.6
17.9
20.3
13.7
16.1
17.6
17.1
43.8
18.7
N/A
N/A
48.8
19.3
42.8
9.5
47.1
18.7
45.6
16.6
59.0
38.0
54.0
31.2
51.0
25.0
55.5
25.5
56.1
31.2
55.1
30.2
41.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
41.0
15.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0
40.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
40.9
12.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12.4
38.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
38.3
9.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9.3
44.2
40.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
42.1
16.6
16.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
16.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Page Ex8.10
Final Report
Exhibit 8 – Retirement Analysis
Impact of 6c Mandatory Retirements
•
•
•
The overall NWFF population does not have an immediate problem with regard to the
impact that mandatory 6c retirement has on employees holding key Direct Fire permanent
positions (i.e., Forestry/Range Aid, Forestry/Range Tech, Lead Forestry/Range Tech and
Supervisory Forestry/Range Tech).
The overall NWFF population does not have an immediate problem with regard to the
impact of 6c mandatory retirement of employees holding key Fire Management Program
permanent positions, specifically permanent Fire Management Officer positions.
As discussed earlier, individual wildland fire agencies are forecasted to experience
significant population increases and decreases based upon historical trends for certain key
positions. When leveraged across the entire NWFF population the impacts of these
concerns is mitigated for the NWFF as a whole, however the concerns need to be resolved
on an organizational level or they will impact the overall workforce in the future. Mandatory
retirement for 6c covered employees exacerbates the criticality of the identified issues.
NWFF
Page Ex8.11
Final Report