TURNING RISK INTO OPPORTUNITY
USING A COLLABORATIVE
MULTIMEDIA APPROACH
Martin Loosemore, Vivien W. Chow, and Michael Brink
Martin Loosemore, Vivien W. Chow, and Michael Brink
CASE STUDY
THE RESILIENCE OF AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND HOSPITAL
FACILITIES TO COPE WITH EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
Partners in this research:
Australian Research Council
Prof Andy Pitman, Co-director of the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW;
Prof Tony McMichael and Dr Keith Dear, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at ANU;
Mr Mark Meurisse of Palisade Asia-Pacific Pty Limited;
NSW Department of Health,
Government of South Australia Department of Health
New Zealand Ministry of Health.
Martin Loosemore, Vivien W. Chow, and Michael Brink
Nature of extreme weather events
 Correlation between climate change and extreme weather events
(Hennessy et al., 2007; Steffen et al., 2006; Stern, 2009)
 For Australia and New Zealand, likely to see more frequent and severe
heatwaves, floods and storms (Australian Greenhouse Office, 2006;
Hennessy et al., 2007; Preston & Jones, 2005)
 This is likely to lead to: new patterns of disease; exacerbate illness
and morbidities in vulnerable populations; affect critical infrastructure
and; change patterns of admissions.
THE BIG QUESTION
How can we ensure our hospitals are able to
deliver care at the time they are most
needed?
 What are the areas of the hospital that are most vulnerable?
 What are the risks and opportunities faced by the hospital
organisation in managing such events?
 What is the current adaptive capacity of hospital
infrastructure?
 How can we improve the resilience of hospital infrastructure?
Three case studies
Cairns
Coffs Harbour (Flash flooding)
Perth
Ceduna (Heatwave)
Adelaide
Sydney
Canberra
Whangarei (flooding)
Auckland
Melbourne
Wellington
Christchurch
Method:
1. Used proprietary tool called ROMS
(www.risk-opportunity.com)
1. Focus groups with key stakeholders
2. Scenario: Extreme weather event (based on
current climate modelling)
Some observation of focus group results
 Structured approach led to rich but overwhelming dataset
 90 ‘risks’ and 36 ‘opportunities’
 158 ‘additional controls’
 Participants identified relationships between elements of the
system
 Circular discussions
Ambulance
Medical staff
Patient
Roads
Hospital
 System boundaries expands during an event
Rich Picture Diagram of Case Study 1:
Stable conditions
Rich Picture Diagram of Case Study 1:
Unstable conditions
SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH
 Founded by Jay Forrester at MIT in the 1960’s
 A perspective and a simulation modelling tool
 Takes into consideration:




Complexity
Nonlinearity
Time dependency
Feedback loop structures
STOCK AND FLOW DIAGRAM
STELLA™ SIMULATION MODEL (INTERFACE)
STELLA™ SIMULATION MODEL (OUTPUTS)
 Output = Behaviour Over Time Graph
 Ability to adjust variables within the model
1. Accessibility index
2. Index of care
3. Adverse non-admit events
4. Adverse hospital events
5. Total time patient under care
TESTING INTERVENTIONS (VIRTUAL EXPERIMENTS)
1. Base scenario (flash flooding)
2. Build a new road to increase capacity
3. Install early warning system
ROMS
(www.risk-opportunity.com)
Provides a rigorous qualitative “filter” to enable better
quantitative analysis
Uses a unique multimedia approach to engage people
Based on 25 years of research and use in numerous
high–risk industries.
Complies with, and exceeds international standards
and guidelines in risk management
ROMS
An integrated
approach
Irisq (ERM)
Very simple
tick-box type
approaches
Rigorous
qualitative
analysis
Rigorous
qualitative
analysis
(all risks and
opportunities)
(significant risks/
Opp’s)
(quantifiable
risks/
Opp’s)
ROMS
Can be used at all organisational levels, providing consistency of process,
practice and risk communication across an entire enterprise:
IRisq
Policy
Mission, vision, values and constraints
Strategic
Understanding business environment,
making choices, setting priorities, systems,
procedures and resources
Tactical
How do we get work
Operational
How do we get the jobs done successfully
Project
How do we manage projects successfully
ROMS
ROMS is used by many organisations for:
 Decision-making
 Problem-solving
 Task planning
 Business planning
 Developing SOPs
When ever there are significant risks or opportunities involved
ROMS
Infrastructure
Beijing 2008
Olympics
Three Gorges
Dam
Climate change
and health
Construction and Facilities Management
Sustainability/
environmental
management
ROMS
Tenders
(Public
Private
Partnerships)
Security,
extortion
and bomb
threats
Emergency
/disaster
Management
Occupational
Health and
safety
Education
and training
Industrial
Relations
Business
planning
Productivity
improvement
Business continuity
ROMS: Approach to Commercialisation
 ROMS initially sold as a “shrink wrap” software product
 Strategy reviewed in 2011 to link ROMS to an advisory
services provider model
 Arising from new strategy a joint venture ROMS risk
advisory firm, OCCASIA, established to be the
primary services based, ROMS distribution channel
through its ROMS Partnership Programme
 Parallel strategic initiative to bundle ROMS as part of
an integrated enterprise risk and opportunity solution
for medium to large enterprises.
OCCASIA Business Model
ROMS Partnership Programme
Integrated Risk Opportunity Solution
iRisQ
ROMS
@RISK
FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE RESEARCH
PROFESSOR MARTIN LOOSEMORE
m.loosemore@unsw.edu.au
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
OCCASIA and ROMS
MICHAEL BRINK
mbrink@tbhcapitaladvisers.com.au