Driving Democracy 2
Structure
Recap: constitutional choices
Recap: electoral systems
1.
Regime Institutions
2.
What are the consequences?

Types of executives
3
3.


Choices and consequences
What are the choices?
What are the consequences?
Conclusions
4.
What institutions would you recommend for postconflict peace –settlements?

Driving Democracy 4
Do institutions matter?
Lijphart’s theory of consociationalism:



1. Recap


Constitutional choices
Power-sharing rules essential for divided societies
Power-concentrating regimes may work in
homogeneous societies
Key features: Executive power-sharing, minority veto,
PR, cultural autonomy
Defining power-sharing democracies
1.
2.
3.
Ref: Arend Lijphart Patterns of
Democracy 1999
‘Majoritarian’ Model
Power-concentrating
Effective and accountable
Driving Democracy
‘Consensus’
Model5
Power-sharing
Inclusive &representative
Exec-Parties
One-party cabinet
Coalition government
Parliament
Executive dominant
Balanced exec-legislature
Party system
Two-party
Multi-party
Electoral system
Majoritarian
Proportional Representation
Interest groups
Pluralist
Corporatist
Electoral systems
Decentralized states
Type of executive
Typology of DemocraciesDriving Democracy 6
Ref: Lijphart Patterns of Democracy 1999
3
Consensual
GER
US
2
Government
Centralized-unitary
Decentralized-federal
Parliament
Unicameral
Balanced Bicameral
Constitution
Flexible
More Rigid
Judiciary
Parlt. sovereign
Judicial review
Central Bank
Dependent
Independent
AUL
SWI
Unitary-F
Federal
Federal-Unitary
CAN
AUT
1
SPA
JPN
VEN
0
BAHTRI
JAM
BARBOT
FRA
MAL
CR
IRE
POR
GRE
-1
PNGNET
BEL
ITA
MAU
FIN
ISR
ICE
UK
DEN
NOR SWE
NZ
-2 Majoritarian
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Executive-Parties
1
Driving Democracy 8
Figure 5.2: Classification of contemporary electoral systems, worldwide 2004
Nation
States
191
Majoritarian
75
2. Electoral systems
Majority
26
AV
4
2nd Ballot
22
FPTP
36
PR
68
Combined
39
Plurality
49
Independent
30
Bloc Vote
9
SNTV
4
Dependent
9
STV
2
No direct elections
9
Party List
66
Closed
35
Open
31
Consensual democracy and
Parliamentary Inclusiveness
Adversarial Democracy and
Government Accountability
nd
Notes: FPTP First Past the Post; 2 Ballot; Block Vote; AV Alternative Vote; SNTV Single Non-Transferable Vote; STV Single Transferable Vote.
Systems are classified in May 1997 based on Appendix A in Andrew Reynolds and Ben Reilly. Eds. The International IDEA Handbook of Electoral
System Design. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. For more details see http://www.aceproject.org/and
Pippa Norris. 2004. Electoral Engineering. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Driving Democracy 9
Driving Democracy 10
Figure 5.4: Contemporary levels of democracy by type of electoral system in heterogeneous
Example of cross-national results
and homogeneous society, 2000
Figure 5.3: Levels of democracy by type of electoral system, 2000
90
Low << D
Democracy >> High
78
77
80
Low<<Democracy>>High
71
70
60
83
67
65
58
57
49
50
42
40
35
32
30
25
20
70
81
79
80
90
75
69
74
70
64
59
60
59
50
46
50
40
30
20
10
10
0
FH
0
FH
Polity
Majoritarian
Vanhanen
Combined
Cheibub
Polity
FH
Homogeneous
Polity
Heterogeneous
PR
Majoritarian
Note: The standardized 100-point scales of democracy are described in Table 3.1. The four scales
measure Liberal Democracy (Freedom House 2000), Constitutional Democracy (Polity IV 2000),
Participatory Democracy (Vanhanen 2000), and Contested Democracy (Cheibub and Gandhi 2000).
When tested by ANOVA, the difference between mean scores are significant (at the p=.001 level).
Contemporary electoral systems are classified in 191 nations worldwide based on Appendix A in
Andrew Reynolds, Ben Reilly and Andrew Ellis. 2005. Electoral System Design: The New International
IDEA Handbook. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. The type
of electoral system was classified into three categories: Majoritarian/plurality (Single member plurality,
nd
2
Ballot,
Block
Vote,
Alternative
Vote,
and
Single
Non-Transferable
Vote),
Proportional
Representation
(Party
List
and
STV)
and
Combined
(using
more
than
one
type
of
ballot
in
simultaneous elections for the same body).
Combined
PR
Note: For the classification of electoral systems, see Figure 5.3.The types of heterogeneous or
homogeneous society are classified by the dichotomized Alesina index of ethnic fractionalization.
Driving Democracy 11
Table 5.2: Electoral systems and democracy, all societies worldwide
Liberal democracy
Freedom House
b
Driving Democracy 12
Table 5.3: Electoral systems and democracy, plural societies only
Liberal democracy
Freedom House
Constitutional democracy
Polity IV
(pcse)
p
-2.33
(.454)
***
b
(pcse)
p
Proportional representation
.904
(.619)
N/s
3.85
(.561)
***
Positive action strategies
4.13
(.466)
***
11.41
(.777)
***
Log GDP/Capita
Ex-British colony
Middle East
Regional diffusion
Ethnic fractionalization
Population size
Area size
13.90
12.35
-10.99
.632
-8.45
.001
.001
(.832)
(.962)
(1.16)
(.036)
(.878)
(.001)
(.001)
***
***
***
***
***
N/s
***
11.91
12.36
-16.79
.883
-1.98
.000
.001
(1.01)
(1.36)
(1.40)
(.049)
(1.56)
(.001)
(.001)
***
***
***
***
N/s
***
***
Constant
N. observations
N. of countries
2
Adjusted R
-21.96
4768
174
.487
Constitutional democracy
Polity IV
b
(pcse)
-4.27
(.625)
***
p
b
-3.30
(pcse)
(1.16)
p
Proportional representation
4.81
(.966)
***
10.68
(.915)
***
Positive action strategies
.424
(.676)
N/s
13.96
(1.52)
***
Log GDP/Capita
Ex-British colony
Middle East
Regional diffusion
Ethnic fractionalization
Population size
Area size
10.21
8.35
-8.39
.739
14.97
-.001
.001
(.519)
(.744)
(.974)
(.027)
(3.18)
(.000)
(.001)
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
7.26
8.20
-20.72
1.04
26.51
-.001
.001
(1.21)
(1.10)
(3.13)
(.055)
(4.27)
(.001)
(.001)
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
Constant
N. observations
N. of countries
2
Adjusted R
-30.9
2116
76
.545
INSTITUTIONAL RULES
INSTITUTIONAL RULES
Majoritarian
-7.64
(.949)
***
CONTROLS
Majoritarian
***
CONTROLS
-38.45
3946
145
.533
Note: Entries for Liberal Democracy, Constitutional Democracy and Participatory Democracy 100point scales are unstandardized OLS regression coefficients (with their panel corrected standard
errors) and the significance (p) of the coefficients for the pooled time-series cross-national analysis
obtained using Stata’s xtpcse command. The entries for Contested Democracy are logistic regression.
For the measures of democracy, see Chapter 2. For the classification of the type of electoral system,
see Figure 5.1. The default (comparison) is mixed electoral systems. For details of all the variables,
see Technical Appendix A. Significant at * the 0.10 level, ** the 0.05 level, and *** the 0.01 level.
-54.9
1851
66
.477
Note: Entries for Liberal Democracy, Constitutional Democracy and Participatory Democracy 100point scales are unstandardized OLS regression coefficients (with their panel corrected standard
errors) and the significance (p) of the coefficients for the pooled time-series cross-national analysis
obtained using Stata’s xtpcse command. The entries for Contested Democracy are logistic regression.
For the measures of democracy, see Chapter 2. For the classification of the type of electoral system,
see Figure 5.1. The default (comparison) is mixed electoral systems. For details of all the variables,
see Technical Appendix A. Significant at * the 0.10 level, ** the 0.05 level, and *** the 0.01 level.
2
Driving Democracy 14
Table 6.1: Classification criteria for types of executives
Military states
Ruling
monarchies
There is a
unified
executive: the
head of state
and the head of
government are
fused in a
single
monarchical
office
The monarch is
a hereditary
ruler for life,
following
conventional
rules of
succession.
The monarch
appoints the
head of
government
and the
monarch may
also appoint
ministers and
legislators.
Presidential
republics
There is a
unified
executive: the
head of state
and the head of
government are
fused in a
single
presidential
office
The president is
a nonhereditary
fixed-term
office.
Presidents
enter office
through nonelective routes,
indirect
election, or
direct election.
Mixed
republics
There is a dual
executive: the
president and
the prime
minister are
separate posts;
either office
may be
predominant.
Parliamentary
monarchies
There is a dual
executive: the
monarch is a
ceremonial
head of state
and the prime
minister leads
the
government.
The posts of
the president
and prime
minister are
filled by various
forms of indirect
election, direct
election, and
appointment.
For as long as
the military
exert control.
The monarch
cannot be
removed from
office except
through
retirement and
succession, or
through extraconstitutional
means (a coup
d’etat).
The president
serves for a
fixed term of
office, unless
removed by an
exceptional
process of
impeachment
or through extra
constitutional
means (a coup
d’etat).
There are
varied forms of
tenure; some
prime ministers
can be replaced
by the
president,
others are
directly elected.
There may be a
military council
of senior
officers, or a
separate
civilian group of
advisers
Cabinet
structures are
highly
hierarchical; the
cabinet (and
parliament) act
in an advisory
capacity to
serve the
monarch.
Cabinet
structures are
usually
hierarchical
with the
president at the
apex, members
are appointed
to serve the
leader, cabinet
Cabinet
structures may
be hierarchical
(following the
model
described for
presidential
republics) or
collegial
(following the
The leader of
the party with
an absolute
parliamentary
majority forms
the
government.
Where no party
has an absolute
majority,
conventionally
the leader of
the largest
parliamentary
party seeks to
form a
governing
coalition.
The monarch
cannot be
removed from
office except
through
retirement and
succession.
The
government
(including the
prime minister
and members
of cabinet) can
fall by defeat at
a general
election or by a
non-confidence
motion passed
by a majority of
the legislature.
Cabinet
organization is
usually collegial
and composed
of senior
policymakers.
The prime
minister is
conventionally
regarded as
Unified or
dual
executive
There is a
unified
executive: the
head of state is
also head of the
government
Accession
process
Usually a coup
d’etat. The ruler
who seizes
power is a
senior officer or
group of
officers from
the military or a
figure-head
leader strongly
backed by the
armed forces.
Tenure in
office
Power within
the executive
3. Types of Executives
Driving Democracy 15
Driving Democracy 16
Classification of executives
Type of executives by region
Figure 6.1: Types of executives (with the number of contemporary states falling into each
category)
Table 6.3: Classification of type of executives by region, 2003
Military state (3)
Parliamenta
ry
Monarchy
Presidential
republic
Mixed
republic
Monarchy
Military state
Other
Total
Sub-Saharan Africa
1
17
27
1
1
2
49
10
8
14
4
1
0
37
Ruling monarchy (13)
Asia-Pacific
Unified executive (71)
Presidential republic (45)
Central & Eastern
Europe
0
0
26
0
0
1
27
Non-elective president (6)
Indirectly-elected president (10)
Middle East
0
1
8
7
1
2
19
Directly-elected president (29)
North America
1
2
0
0
0
0
3
Central and South
America
9
16
7
0
0
0
32
Mixed republic (92)
(President + prime minister)
Dual executive (123)
Parliamentary monarchy (31)
Scandinavia
3
0
2
0
0
0
5
Western Europe
7
1
8
1
0
2
19
31
45
92
13
3
7
191
Total
(Monarch + Prime minister)
Note: The number of states falling into each category in 2003.
Source: Coded from Arthur S. Banks Cross-national Time-series Data Archive.
Driving Democracy 17
Driving Democracy 18
Table 6.4: Types of executive and democracy, all societies worldwide
Trends in types of executive
Liberal democracy
Freedom House
b
120
Constitutional democracy
Polity IV
p
b
(pcse)
p
INSTITUTIONAL RULES
Presidential republics
100
Number of states worldwide
(pcse)
80
-5.79
.873
***
-9.80
1.38
***
Mixed republics
-10.77
.803
***
-14.25
1.26
***
Ruling monarchies
-15.13
1.43
***
-44.50
2.31
***
Military states
-24.19
1.37
***
-34.12
2.06
***
Log GDP/Capita
Ex-British colony
Middle East
Regional diffusion
Ethnic fractionalization
Population size
Area size
PR electoral system for lower
house
12.91
9.35
-7.57
.556
-7.91
.000
.001
2.71
.589
.616
1.19
.020
1.14
.000
.000
.596
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
10.1
10.7
-2.69
.582
-1.86
.000
.002
6.32
.886
.968
1.79
.020
1.80
.000
.000
.886
***
***
Constant
N. observations
2
Adjusted R
-6.70
4766
.620
CONTROLS
60
40
20
0
1972
1977
1982
1987
Parliamentary Monarchies
Presidential republics
Ruling Monarchies
Military states
Note: Coded from Arthur S. Banks Cross-national Time-series Data Archive.
1992
1997
Mixed republics
***
***
***
***
5.17
3939
.585
2002
Note: The default (comparison) is Parliamentary Monarchies. Entries for Liberal Democracy, Constitutional Democracy and Participatory
Democracy 100-point scales are unstandardized OLS regression coefficients (with their panel corrected standard errors) and the significance (p)
of the coefficients for the pooled time-series cross-national analysis obtained using Stata’s xtpcse command. The entries for Contested
Democracy are logistic regression. For the measures of democracy, see Chapter 2. For the classification of the type of executives, see Figure
6.1. For details of all the variables, see Technical Appendix A. Significant at * the 0.10 level, ** the 0.05 level, and *** the 0.01 level.
3
Driving Democracy 19
Political crisis by types of executives
Driving Democracy 20
Executives and crisis
Table 6.5: Types of executive and the indicators of political crisis, all societies worldwide
Political crisis scale
Freedom House
Military state
2.71
b
(pcse)
p
INSTITUTIONAL RULES
Presidential republics
Presidential republic
2.02
1.77
Mixed republic
.656
.174
***
N/s
Mixed republics
.246
.160
Ruling monarchies
-616
616
.286
*
Military states
1.67
.272
***
Log GDP/Capita
Ex-British colony
Middle East
Ethnic fractionalization
Population size
Area size
PR electoral system for lower house
-.289
-.321
.731
-.793
.000
.000
.606
.098
.124
.215
.222
.000
.000
.119
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
Constant
N. observations
Adjusted R2
2.04
4719
.114
CONTROLS
0.91
Parliamentary Monarchy
Monarchy
0.00
0.48
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Note: The political crisis scale is constructed from events recorded in the Banks dataset including the number of coups d’etat, major
constitutional changes, political assassinations, general strikes, cases of guerrilla warfare, government crisis, purges of opposition, riots,
revolutions, and anti-government demonstrations. The measure is constructed for every regime-year as a simple additive scale without any
weighting.
Source: Coded from Arthur S. Banks Cross-national Time-series Data Archive 1972-2003.
Note: The default (comparison) is Parliamentary Monarchies. Entries are unstandardized OLS regression
coefficients (with their panel corrected standard errors) and the significance (p) of the coefficients for the
pooled time-series cross-national analysis obtained using Stata’s xtpcse command. For the classification
of the type of executives, see Figure 6.1.
For details of all the variables, including the political crisis
scale, see Technical Appendix A. Significant at * the 0.10 level, ** the 0.05 level, and *** the 0.01 level.
4. Conclusions
4