FLOW SLIDES AND FLOWS IN GRANULAR SOILS OLDRICH HUNGR Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Canada ABSTRACT: Three types of flow-like landslides involving granular soils are among the most destructive of all landslide phenomena: debris avalanches that develop from rapid shallow failures on steep slopes, debris flows that take place in established channels and gullies and flow slides that are often deep-seated and are caused by spontaneous or earthquake liquefaction of granular soil. This article reviews the geological, hydrological and morphological context under which such landslides occur. Debris flows and avalanches require steep slopes and shallow, loose soil veneers. The initial sliding failure may occur in saturated or partly saturated soil. Rapid loading and incorporation of material is a very important process. Flow slides require deep deposits of loose soil. Full saturation must be present on the rupture surface, although much of the overlying material can be dry. Loose saturated sands, lacustrine and eolian silts, residual soil, pyroclastic deposits and artificial fills are most prone to flow sliding. Triggering and motion mechanisms of flows and flow slides are reviewed. Keywords: Rapid landslides, debris flows, debris avalanches, flow slides, dynamics 1. INTRODUCTION Landslide dynamics is a subject that has long been rather neglected in the geotechnical literature. Morgenstern (1978) remarked on this deficiency with the following words: “… There is a class of problems that arises in practice that is not concerned with the evaluation of whether a slope will fail or not; but instead obliges us to assume movement and design against the consequences. Where it is not practical to eliminate movements, the following questions arise: 1) 2) 3) How much material will move? What will be the time history of the movements in terms of velocities and accelerations? How are protective structures designed against moving masses? “ Flow-like landslides are the most destructive among all types of landslide phenomena. Those that occur under natural conditions are also the most difficult to prevent. Questions 1 to 3 above then formulate the main objectives of research directed to such landslides. 4) "Clay flow slide" is a very rapid to extremely rapid flow of liquefied sensitive clay, at, or close to its original water content. The first process, "debris avalanche" initiates on steep slopes and thus obtains its mobility mainly from a large store of potential energy. Pore-pressures generated by rapid undrained loading probably play an important role in mobilizing this landslide type. The second type, "debris flow", occupies an established channel, although it may develop from a debris avalanche (or rock slide) at the point of initiation. It is characterized by entrainment of saturated debris from the path, surging, internal sorting and mixing with surface water. The third and fourth types, "flow slides" involve in situ liquefaction of the source material. These landslides are therefore limited to materials prone to spontaneous or earthquake liquefaction, such as quick clays, loose saturated sands, silts or unsorted debris. Obviously, there is some overlap between the categories. For example, a shallow debris avalanche triggering on a steep slope may contain some material which has spontaneously liquefied. Nevertheless, the proposed definitions facilitate the identification of dominant mechanisms responsible for the triggering and propagation of these extremely rapid and dangerous landslides. In an attempt to improve the classification of flow-like landslides, Hungr et al. (2001) introduced the following definitions: 2. BASIC INITIATION MECHANISMS 1) "Debris avalanche" is a very rapid to extremely rapid shallow flow of partially or fully saturated debris on a steep slope, without an established channel. To conceptualise the process of slope failure, it is useful to think in terms of the resultant driving, Fd, and resisting, Fr, forces acting on the failing mass (Figure 1a). Their possible change with displacement is shown in Figure 1b. 2) "Debris flow" is a very rapid to extremely rapid flow of saturated non-plastic debris in a steep channel. ("Mud flow" is preferred if the Plasticity Index of the matrix (sand and finer) is greater than 5%). 3) "Sand (silt, debris) flow slide" is a very rapid to extremely rapid flow of sorted or unsorted granular material on moderate slopes, involving excess pore-pressure or liquefaction at the source. 2.1 General The driving force is a component of gravity and depends on the mean inclination of the current velocity vector field. Depending on the curvature of the rupture surface, this force may decrease gradually with displacement (rotational slide), or remain approximately constant (translation). Fd Fr (a) the friction angle, φ. The presence of cohesion, c, permits the slope to stand steeper than φ. This cohesion may be true cohesion, due to electrostatic forces or chemical cementing at particle contacts. It may also be apparent cohesion, arising from suction forces at particle contacts of an unsaturated soil. Alternatively, a bulk cohesion may result from vegetation root reinforcement. At limit equilibrium, the driving stress, τ and resisting stress, S, must be equal: τ = γH sin β Fd ; S = c + γH cos β tan φ (1) Fr Displacement (b) Figure 1. Forces acting on a landslide at the point of failure. (a) Landslide profile, (b) Variation of resultant forces with displacement. The resisting force must equal the driving force at the onset of failure, then reduce as a result of brittleness. The vertical distance between the resisting and driving force curves in Figure 1b gives the net unbalanced force, ∆F, available to cause acceleration of the slide. From the work-energy theorem, the kinetic energy developed by the slide at any value of displacement will equal the work done by the unbalanced force, ∫ ∆Fdx , i.e. the shaded area between the two curves. Thus, the pre-requisite of rapid landslide acceleration is always a sudden loss of shear strength. In the context of the CoulombTerzaghi strength criterion, this can occur by three processes: 1) loss of cohesion, 2) decrease of friction angle and 3) increase of pore-pressure or, in the extreme, spontaneous liquefaction. Once oversteepening, overloading or some other trigger initiates failure displacement, cohesion will almost instantly disappear. Then, an unbalanced tangential force equal to S-τ will be acting on the column. Substituting from (1) and dividing by column mass, we obtain a formula for the resulting tangential (downslope) acceleration: a=g c γH (2) Due to the need to equate τ and S at failure, the amount of cohesion is functionally related to the slope angle (as obtained from (1)). The full line in Figure 3 is derived from (1) and (2), using a φ of 30º. Evidently, the acceleration increases rapidly with rising slope angle. Failures initiating by cohesion loss will be rapid, if starting from steep slopes, even if no pore-pressure changes occur. The amount of acceleration will increase with increasing cohesion or decreasing depth and weight of the slide. Cohesion Loss Friction Decrease (20%) Liquefaction 2.2 Strength Loss 0.8 0.7 0.6 ACCELERATION (g) The dynamic consequences of sudden strength loss can be quantified using a simple infinite slope stability model (e.g. Morgenstern and Sangrey, 1978). As shown in Fig. 2, such an analysis is applicable to a shallow translational slope failure, H thick, where end effects can be neglected and the equilibrium of the slide is represented by forces acting on a soil column of unit normal area. 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 H β 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 EQUILIBRIUM SLOPE ANGLE 45 Figure 3. Theoretical acceleration resulting from three types of strength loss, as derived from Equations 1,2 3 and 4. Figure 2. The infinite slope problem, shown in profile. Let us first assume that a slope exists in a dry condition, supported by soil strength containing both a cohesive and frictional component. If there was no cohesion, the slope would stand at the angle of repose and the slope angle, β, would equal A similar derivation can be made to consider the effects of friction decrease. A decrease will result from particle realignment or asperity breakage in passing from peak (φp) to residual friction angle. Neglecting cohesion, the equilibrium slope angle β must equal φp. The acceleration associated with the decline of friction angle from peak to residual will be: (3) The resulting acceleration for a friction decrease by 20% is shown by the long-dashed line in Figure 3. This process is not too effective in causing acceleration, if the decline of friction requires long displacement. Liquefaction occurs only under a high degree of saturation. Assuming zero cohesion and a steady seepage flow parallel to the slope face, the equilibrium slope angle, β, cannot be more than approximately one-half the peak friction angle. Once structural collapse of the soil skeleton occurs, the pore-pressures will approach the full weight of the soil column (geostatic value). The resisting stress, S will be reduced to zero and the unbalanced force will equal τ, as given in (1). The acceleration will then equal: a = g sin β (4) As shown by the short-dashed line in Figure 3, this process is capable of producing high acceleration even on moderate slopes. On the other hand, it is unlikely to occur on steep slopes, as such slopes are unlikely to be sustained by loose, saturated material required for liquefaction. The simple models behind Figure 3 indicate that rapid initial acceleration will most likely occur on steep, often unsaturated slopes maintained by cohesion, or on flatter slopes made of loose, saturated and liquefiable (or at least contractive) material. Shallow rupture and low in situ unit weight enhance initial acceleration in the first case. 2.3 Undrained Loading Significant initial acceleration will propel the toe of the landslide mass forward, overriding the ground surface downslope. The soil forming this surface will be very rapidly loaded. This will set the conditions for rapid undrained loading (Hutchinson and Bhandari, 1971) or associated liquefaction (Sassa, 1985). The process is illustrated in Figure 4, produced using the dynamic flow model DAN (Hungr, 1995). In this example, a rectangular block of soil fails by means of cohesion loss. In the DAN model, this is simulated by instantaneously turning the block from a solid to a frictional fluid. Initial acceleration occurs such as predicted by the full line in Figure 3, propelling the slide toe forward. The substrate of the ground downhill is a relatively loose, low permeability, saturated soil, that will respond to the sudden loading by structural collapse and rise of pore-pressure. As a result, the toe of the slide will now be carried on top of a cushion of liquid mud, or will displace the latter and mix with it to form a fluid composite mass. This is reflected in the DAN model by changing the rheological properties at the base of the slide from frictional to fluid-like. This change is reflected by the noticeable elongation of the front and acceleration of the leading edge. As long as saturated material is available on the path, the same process may continue indefinitely and a mobile, flow-like movement will result, similar to a flow slide. 60 ELEVATION (m) a = g cos φ p (tan φ p − tan φ r ) 70 50 40 30 20 10 -10 0 10 20 30 40 DISTANCE (m) 50 60 Figure 4. Motion of a block of frictional material entraining an erodible substrate layer (Produced using model DAN, Hungr, 1995). Profiles shown at 0 and 4 seconds. 2.4 Liquefaction The principles of spontaneous or earthquake liquefaction failure have been discussed by many authors. Perhaps the clearest explanation of the process uses the "collapse surface" concept, proposed originally by Sladen et al. (1985). Collapsive materials exist in situ at void ratios higher than the steady-state void ratio. Under full saturation, granular collapsive soils are formed by rapid deposition, which prevents proper packing of the soil skeleton. Typical examples are sand or silt deposits on some river deltas, or man-made hydraulic fills (e.g. Casagrande, 1976). In saturated clays, collapsive structure may be due to electro-chemical changes induced by pore-water leaching (e.g. Lefebvre, 1995). The origin and behaviour of collapsive structure in partly saturated soils is less-well understood. For example, loess soils form by slow dry aggradation of windborne dust and are held in a loose state by means of pore-water suction (Dijkstra et al., 1994). On saturation, the suctions are removed and the soil collapses (e.g. Lefebvre, 1995). However, this would not, normally be an instantaneous process, as saturation of a mass of fine-grained soil must take a long time, measured in hours or days. Yet, we often observe sudden liquefaction of parts of such deposits, particularly at basal contacts where perched water tables can be expected to occur (Dijkstra et al., 1994). How does loess maintain its unstable skeleton until sufficient quantity is saturated to the point of collapse? One possibility is that a part of the cohesion is of a chemical nature and is therefore able to support the soil structure even after some saturation occurs, until sudden rupture. This rupture is likely brought about by overstress, due to stress redistribution by progressive failure, or to earthquake shaking. Cementing by calcium carbonate, iron or aluminum oxides is a possibility (Professor E.Derbyshire, pers. comm.). A similar process may be effective in producing collapsive structure in well-graded materials such as natural colluvium, or artificial fills (e.g. mine waste). Such material is loosely deposited in a moist condition and held in this state by light cementing. With time, some fine-grained portions of the originally dry deposits become saturated, without change in void ELEVATION (m) ratio. Collapse occurs when the loose structure of the soil is suddenly destroyed by shear rupture. It is of interest to observe that 30 years ago, only uniform loose saturated sands were considered capable of collapse liquefaction (Terzaghi and Peck, 1967). In fact, many well-graded materials have now clearly been shown to have collapsive structure, as shown in Figures 5 and 6 (Dawson et al., 1998). 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 DISTANCE (m) 60 70 80 Figure 7. Dynamic analysis of a block of soil subject to sudden and complete spontaneous liquefaction (Hungr, 1995). Profiles shown in 2 sec. intervals. 3. EXAMPLES 3.1 Debris Avalanches and Flows in Shallow soil Veneer Figure 5 Grain size distributions of collapsive coal waste material (Dawson et al., 1998). Perhaps the most frequent scenario for producing rapid flow-like landslides is the failure of a thin veneer of relatively loose soil, covering a steep slope made of stronger material. The most common stratigraphy involves a colluvial veneer covering residual soil, bedrock or glacial till. Even more unstable are veneers of volcanic ejecta covering steep eroded topography (e.g. Del Prete et al., 1998). Existence of such veneers on slopes that often approach or exceed 45º indicates the presence of cohesion, belonging to any or all of the three kinds mentioned previously, i.e. cement, negative pore-pressure or root systems. Considerable controversy exists in literature, concerning the degree of saturation of such slope profiles. In any event, cohesion is quickly lost upon initial failure displacement and rapid acceleration ensues. Even if material covering the steep upper slope is essentially unsaturated, gradual accumulation of seepage may well saturate the lower parts of the slope, which are over-ridden and subject to liquefaction by rapid undrained loading. Thus, debris avalanches starting as localized failures of perhaps a few cubic metres of soil grow in width as they propagate downslope, increasing in volume many times beyond the magnitude of the initial slide. Figure 6. Results of a large-diameter undrained triaxial test on mine waste material, exhibiting collapsive behaviour (Dawson et al., 1998). The effect of spontaneous or earthquake liquefaction is simply a sudden change of the material from solid to liquid. This change can be simulated using fluid dynamics models such as DAN, previously mentioned. Liquefaction may affect the full depth of the material (usually if fully saturated) as shown in Figure 7. Alternatively, only a thin basal layer may liquefy, perhaps due to an accumulation of pore water above an impervious contact. The analysis must then consider the internal friction and stiffness of the sliding mass (Hungr, 1995). One of the best documented examples of such a slope failure is the largest known natural rapid landslide in Hong Kong, the Tsing Shan debris flow of 1990 (King, 1996). The initial slide was a failure of a small colluvial wedge, infilling a structurallycontrolled steep bedrock gully and less than 400 m3 in volume (Figure 8) In moving down a steep bedrock slope thinly covered by colluvium, the event grew to its final volume of 20 000 m3 (Figure 9). Similarly, many of the infamous debris flows and debris avalanches of the Campania region in Italy began by relatively small sliding failures of a pyroclastic veneer above cut slopes of artificial trackways, or the crests of natural cliffs (Professor F. Guadagno, pers. comm.). They widened and grew many times in magnitude, while traversing the middle and lower slopes covered with a similar veneer (Del Prete et al., 1998). This mechanism of enlargement is the most important aspect of debris avalanches, yet we have little quantitative understanding of it. Predictions of runout of such events are severely hindered by our inability to estimate the magnitude (volume) of the event, which depends on the width of the landslide path and the depth the yield rate exist. Measurements involving relatively confined, narrow debris flow paths on Lantau Island in Hong Kong showed yield rates of the order of only 2-5 m3/m (Lau and Woods, 1997). However, the yield rates involved in the Tsing Shan event shown on Figure 9 reached as high as 29 m3/m. Extensive surveys of debris flow/avalanche channels on Queen Charlotte Islands in British Columbia, Canada, showed a great range of yield rates (Figure 10), but no-one has yet succeeded in correlating these values with suitable predictor variables (Mr. T. Rollerson, Golder Associates Ltd., Pers. Comm., 1997). Systematic collection of yield rates and correlation with soil and slope characteristics is necessary to improve our ability to predict the failure behaviour of debris flows and avalanches. 200 Figure 8. The source area of the trigger landslide on Tsing Shan, Hong Kong. Photo taken in 2002. 180 160 FREQUENCY 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 YIELD RATE (m3/m) 30 40 50 Figure 10. Distribution of measured channel yield rates from approximately 1000 reaches of 300 debris flow/avalanche events on the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia, Canada (Data courtesy Mr. T. Rollerson, Golder Associates Ltd., Vancouver. Note: negative yield rate represents deposition of material. 3.2 Flow Slides in Saturated Fine Sand Figure 9. The Tsing Shan debris flow in Hong Kong. The flow volume increased from 400 m3 to 20,000 m3 through material entrainment. Photo courtesy of Mr. J.P. King, GEO, Hong Kong. of material erosion. The product of the latter quantities was designated by Hungr et al.(1984) as the "Channel Yield Rate", measured in m3 per meter of path length (a negative value represents deposition in flatter or less confined reaches of the path). Unfortunately, only a few reliable field measurements of Large flow slides occur periodically on the front of the Fraser River delta near Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The main channel of the Fraser enters the Pacific Ocean at a location on the front of the delta called Sandheads, 15 km south of the City of Vancouver. In the past, the river channel meandered over the surface of the delta, and its mouth migrated laterally across the delta front (Figure 11). Wherever the channel crossed the delta crest, a submarine canyon formed. In 1932, a permanent jetty was constructed, confining the river outlet permanently to a location just south of the Sandheads lighthouse. A major canyon developed in front of this location during the 7 decades following the completion of the jetty. At present, Public Works Canada (PWC) conducts annual dredging of the main channel immediately to the south of the jetty, to maintain a minimum depth of 10 m, required for navigation. Submarine landslides occur periodically at the western end of the navigation channel, just south of the jetty (Mc Kenna et al., 1992). This periodic cycle of landsliding and sedimentation suggests a possible explanation for the occurrence of the large failures. The Fraser delivers large quantities of fine sand to the delta front during the freshet (late June-July). Based on sounding data, as much as 10 m of vertical aggradation can occur at the slope crest per year. Considering that much of this occurs during less than two months, the aggradation rate can be as high as 5 m per month. Morgenstern (1967) considered the effects of Figure 11. Location plan of the Fraser delta front. The square frame is 4 km wide . Note submarine canyons and historic channels of the Fraser River Consolidation degree (%) Sandheads 100 80 Cv (cm2/sec) 60 40 0.001 (silt) 20 0.01 (sand) 0.1 (sand) 0 0 1 10 100 1000 Rate of sedimentation (cm/year) 10000 Figure 13. A nomogram derived from the theory of coupled consolidation and sedimentation, following the approach of Morgenstern (1967). underconsolidation on the stability of rapidly aggrading delta slopes. Following his approach, Figure 13 shows a nomogram of underconsolidation, derived using a theory of coupled sedimentation and consolidation. Given the high sedimentation rate of fine sand at Sandheads, it is quite possible for the degree of consolidation to remain at only 50% during the freshet period. This may create excess pore pressures, capable of triggering local instability. The triggering of instability may be aided by methane gas exsolution, formed hysteretically during tidal cycles (Grozic et al., 2000) Figure 12. Position of the 10 m depth contour preceding (i) and following (f) each of the documented submarine landslide events (from McKenna et al., 1992). The dashed line on the left and the full line on the right side of the picture represent the 1985 landslide. The most significant of the recorded landslide events occurred on June 30, 1985. A PWC survey crew was engaged in sounding the depth of the shipping channel. They found that the depth of the channel bottom changed from 10 to 30 metres between morning and afternoon, over an area nearly 300 m long along the river axis and 250 m wide. Thus, more than 1 million m3 of sediment vacated the river mouth in course of several hours and flowed west over the face of the delta and into the submarine canyon (Figure 12). Neither the jetty nor the Sandheads Lighthouse were affected by the adjacent landslide. No unusual waves, or even turbidity were reported in the shipping channel on that day. The space emptied by the 1985 landslide contained fresh river sediment, which accumulated during river freshets since the last preceding failure (Figure 12). Since 1985, the same space infillled again by new sediment. Thus, the landslides appear to periodically empty the same approximate location, to be filled anew by river sedimentation. A typical longitudinal profile along the centerline of the river channel at the crest of the delta slope is shown in Figure 14a. A limit equilibrium analysis showed that small-scale slumping failure can easily occur at the crest, prompted by underconsolidation and possibly also by spontaneous undrained collapse of the loose sediment. Once an initial failure occurs, the liquefied sand will flow down the slope as shown in Figure 14b. The wave of sand will over-ride loose material on lower slopes. An approximate undrained limit equilibrium analysis of the front of the propagating sand wave proved that entrainment of a large quantity of sand from the path of the sand wave is likely (cf. Sassa. 1985). In this manner, a relatively shallow flow slide can sweep over the slope, removing a slice of material as shown in Figure 14c. The crest of the slope is left unsupported and may fail retrogressively by the same mechanism. In this way, a more-less continuous flow of liquefied sand may be set up on the slope, moving material steadily towards the submarine canyon and enlarging the landslide crater in the upstream direction. Such a process would explain how an enormous quantity of material can be removed in a few hours, without causing a noticeable disturbance of the water surface. The material entrainment process may continue on lower slopes of the delta, deepening the submarine canyon and possibly diluting itself to form a turbidity current on lower slopes of the delta. Retrogression, 4m aa Liquefaction Figure 13. Schematic view of a stage in the formation of a retrogressive flow slide. 3.3 Flow Slides in Overconsolidated Silty Clays: Macroscopic Brittleness b Slides involving overconsolidated, non-sensitive clay tend to be slow and ductile (e.g. Skempton and Hutchinson, 1969). Many such slides are found along river valleys of the Canadian Prairies, exploiting weak surfaces in heavily overconsolidated glacio-lacustrine clays, or the underlying argillaceous bedrock (Thomson and Morgenstern, 1977). An unusual case is the Attachie Slide, which occurred in May, 1973 on the Peace River upstream of Fort St.John, north-eastern British Columbia. The south side of the 200 m deep valley had been unstable for at least 30 years, before the first airphotos of the area were taken. Sliding was taking place in a thick and complex sequence of glacio-lacustrine clays, clayey silts and silts, covered by about 30 m of glacial till. The glacio-lacustrine sequence was underlain by basal gravels and Cretaceous bedrock, neither of which participated in the instability. Displacements totaling several tens of metres had occurred at several levels in the slope by 1973, creating several large scarps (Figure 15a). The instability occurred in two stages, upper and lower, separated by an intact intermediate scarp which can be seen on both in Figures 15a and b and on the profile, Figure 16. Precedent from similar locations in prairie valleys would indicate that a slow, ductile failure was in progress. However, in May, 1973, following a relatively wet year, the lower stage of the slope became suddenly mobile. A total of 12.4 million m3 of material moved on both levels. About half of this volume (6.4 million m3) was sufficiently mobile to descend a 60 m scarp at the toe of the slope and move rapidly across the floodplain of the Peace River (Figure 15b). This mobile portion corresponded largely with the lower stage of the instability, between the toe and the intermediate scarp. The upper stage also displaced, but with much less mobility. The flow slide had sufficient momentum to raise a wave and impact the opposite shore. Details of the case history can be found in Evans et al. (1996), Fletcher (2000) and Fletcher et al. (2002). The glacio-lacustrine soil, forming the most mobile part of the displacement material, consisted of approximately 31% of lowplastic silt, 48% plastic clayey silt and 21% sand (Fletcher et al., 2002). All these materials are complexly interbedded and very Figure 15. Vertical airphotos of the Attachie Slide. a) in 1970 (BC5529,75) b) in 1973 following the rapid flow slide of May, 1973 (BC7279,70). The area covered by the photographs is approximately 1,800 m wide. Upper stage 650 Lower stage ? 600 Pre-failure surface 550 Post-failure surface Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4 Unit 5 Unit 6 Cobble/gravel Pre-glacial laminated clay and silt Sand Till Colluvium Post-glacial laminated clay and silt 500 450 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 meters Figure 16. A central cross-section of the Attachie Slide (Fletcher, 2000) stiff or dense, having been overridden by glacial ice on at least one occasion. There is some evidence that the low plasticity silt units are cemented by calcium carbonate or gypsum. The flat basal part of the rupture surface formed in thinly laminated highly plastic illite clay with a clay fraction of 60-70%. The residual friction angles ranged from 17° to 25°, on account of varying silt content. Three consolidated undrained triaxial tests on this material indicated dilative behaviour with values of the pore-pressure parameter, “A” at failure of 0.12 to 0.55, indicating low sensitivity. Liquidity indices generally below 0.5 also pointed to low sensitivity. It is not difficult to explain the occurrence of instability at this site, given the existence of pre-sheared layers of plastic clay and the presence of confined ground water aquifers. However, it is much more difficult to explain the occurrence of extremely rapid, catastrophic failure as observed in May, 1973. In order to quantify the strength loss evidenced by the 1973 displacement, a dynamic analysis of the lower stage source volume was carried out with the program “DAN” (Hungr, 1995), using frictional rheology. Used in a back-calculation, the model can give the strength loss required to obtain the geometry change observed during the failure. In this case, it was first assumed that undrained pore-pressure increase was the sole source of brittleness. The analysis showed that an average pore pressure ratio increase from 0.26 to 0.50 was required to deform the sliding body as observed. The corresponding change in the Factor of Safety is approximately from 1.0 to 0.5 (Fletcher, 2000, Fletcher et al., 2002). It is difficult to explain such a dramatic, instant strength loss, given the character of soil materials at this site. None of the soil descriptions give an indication of the possibility of contractive behaviour, which could translate into high undrained brittleness. Further, the large ductile pre-1973 displacements of the slope are hard to reconcile with the behaviour of a sensitive clay. Alternative explanations of the catastrophic failure are therefore needed. After a detailed examination of several alternatives, Fletcher (2000) concluded that two failure mechanisms are possible: The first hypothesis considered the internal strength of the sliding body. The profile of the lower stage of the Attachie slide is compound. The rupture surface consists of a long, flat-lying segment which follows the pre-sheared clay layer and a steep back scarp cutting across layers. In order to fail, such a geometry requires strong internal distortion on secondary shears complementary to the back scarp (Hutchinson, 1988). The high internal strength of the unfailed very stiff, possibly cemented soil, adds considerably to the overall sliding resistance, but reduces sharply, once the brittle material fails. The quantitative effect can be modeled using a two-block stability analysis (Fletcher, 2000). The second hypothesis concentrates on the occurrence of multiple tension cracks in the disturbed slope, as a result of pre1973 movements. The cracks divide the silty soil into a network of stiff blocks separated by discontinuities. Many of the cracks fill over time by loose silty debris, which may become saturated by surface water. Once such mixture of intact blocks and loose matrix is forced to move, localized liquefaction may occur, driving the toe portion of the slope forward. This effect can be referred to as “macroscopic brittleness”. Analyses by Fletcher (2000) show that most likely both of the above mechanisms participated in the spectacular failure of May, 1973. Neither mechanism is normally considered in hazard analyses for slopes in over-consolidated clays and silts. 4. CONCLUSIONS Although analytical tools are available, quantitative analysis and prediction of the behaviour of flow-like landslides is still not straightforward. Better understanding is required of the mechanisms forming and maintaining loose soil structure, providing cohesion and causing changes in the degree of saturation. The range of materials and conditions known to be susceptible to liquefaction must be greatly expanded. Practical methods of identification of the potential for liquefaction must be developed. Empirical means of quantifying material entrainment must be established, in order to facilitate the prediction of magnitude and runout of flowing landslides. REFERENCES Casagrande, A., 1976. Liquefaction and cyclic deformation of sands: a critical review. Harvard Soil Mechanics Series, No. 88, Cambridge, Massachussetts, 26 p. Dawson, R.F., Morgenstern, N.R. and Stokes,A.W., 1998. Liquefaction flowslides in Rocky Mountain coal mine waste dumps. 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