Introduction to the module
Understanding theHorn.org
© UC Regents 2013
Conflict in the Horn
Curriculum Overview
1. Conflict patterns
 Types of conflict: inter-state vs. intra-state
 Regional differences: Horn of Africa vs. Sub-Saharan Africa
 Conflict-related deaths in the Horn of Africa
 Internally displaced persons & refugees in the Horn of Africa
3. Conflict sources
 Violent events & ecosystems in the Horn of Africa
4. Conflict management
 Local strategy: peace committees in Kenya
 National strategy: Ministry of Federal Affairs in Ethiopia
 Regional strategy: Intergovernmental Authority on Development
© UC Regents 2013
2. Conflict consequences
Conflict between countries (inter-state conflict) is a
relatively rare occurrence.
Example: war broke out between Ethiopia and
Somalia in 1977-1978 over control of the Ogaden
region that is controlled by Ethiopia
Conflict within countries (intra-state conflict) remains a
recurrent problem.
Example: the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
fought a civil war against the national government of
Ethiopia between 1975 and 1991
© UC Regents 2013
Violent conflicts in the Horn of Africa conform to broader
regional patterns found across much of Sub-Saharan Africa
Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa are mainly intra-state
Source: Correlates of War; Fearon and Laitin
(2003)
Conflicts in the Horn of Africa are also mainly intra-state
Source: Correlates of War; Fearon and Laitin
(2003)
Civil wars have occurred in
nearly half of the countries
in Sub-Saharan Africa
No civil war
Not in sample
Note: civil wars are
defined as conflicts
resulting in more than
1,000 battlefield
deaths
Source: Fearon and Laitin
(2003)
© UC Regents 2013
Civil war
Insurgencies across the Horn of Africa
Eritrea
Sudan
Djibouti
Ethiopia
© UC Regents 2013
Somalia
Kenya
Note: points indicate
approximate geographic location
of insurgencies
Source: UCDP
Conflict patterns in the Horn of Africa also differ from the
rest of Sub-Saharan Africa in important ways
Unlike the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, two civil wars in the
Horn have resulted in secession – the birth of new countries.
• Eritrea became an independent country after
separating from Ethiopia in 1993
• South Sudan became an independent country after
separating from Sudan in 2011
© UC Regents 2013
The countries of the Horn, on average, experience more
violent events than countries in the rest of the continent.
© UC Regents 2013
Countries in the Horn experience more political violence
Note: political violence refers to government and anti-government violent
events
Source: SCAD 3.0
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Somalia
© UC Regents 2013
Sudan
Violent events across the Horn of
Africa
Eritrea
(1990-2011)
Kenya
Note: points indicate
approximate
geographic location of
violent events
Source: SCAD 3.0
© UC Regents 2013
Countries in the Horn experience more protests
Note: protests refer to organized and spontaneous demonstrations
Source: SCAD 3.0
Eritrea
© UC Regents 2013
There are differences
in conflict patterns
among the countries
of the Horn of Africa
Ethiopia
Example: Ethiopia has
more episodes of
protest than Eritrea
Source: SCAD 3.0
There are also differences in conflict patterns within countries
© UC Regents 2013
Example: protests in
Ethiopia’s largest
region, Oromia,
occurred only in select
districts in 2005.
Post-election protest
No protest
Source: Arriola (2013)
© UC Regents 2013
Conflicts in the Horn of Africa have severe consequences:
thousands of soldiers and rebels are killed annually
Source: Lacina and Gleditsch (2005)
© UC Regents 2013
Conflicts in the Horn of Africa have severe consequences:
internally displaced persons and refugees number in millions
Source: USCRI/Marshall
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Poverty
Economic competition
Weak governance institutions
Political & social grievances
Ethnic and religious differences
Difficult terrain
Environmental stress
© UC Regents 2013
Conflicts in the Horn of Africa are associated with many of
the factors related to conflicts across Sub-Saharan Africa
Violent events and ecosystems
© UC Regents 2013
some scholars
argue that
conflicts are
sparked by
environmental
conditions
Source: SCAD 3.0; AAG/USGS
© UC Regents 2013
Persistent
drought across
much of the
Horn of Africa
affected 13
million people in
2011 and 2012
Source: UN OCHA
Communal conflicts in Kenya (2000-2008)
Of 239 communal violence
events coded between 2000
and 2008, 50% involved
cattle rustling and another
22% involved land and water
access.
Note: points indicate approximate
location of communal conflicts within
districts
Source: Understanding the Horn
© UC Regents 2013
Example: conflicts between
ethnic groups in Kenya
appear to be concentrated in
the arid parts of the country’s
north.
Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn
A local strategy in Kenya relies on traditional forms of
mediation to reconcile members of different groups
Peace committees have been formed across northern
Kenyan districts like Garissa, Isiolo, Moyale, and Wajir
Community elders typically meet to discuss the sources of
conflict (e.g., farmer vs. pastoralist land access), options for
restitution, and means for preventing future violence
© UC Regents 2013
Peace committees have been formed in parts of northern
Kenya where government institutions are weak or absent
Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn
The Ministry of Federal Affairs was established to manage
conflict resolution between ethnic groups as well as the
ethnically-defined states of the country’s federal system
The Ministry studies existing conflicts, makes policy
recommendations for their resolution, and can deploy the
Federal Police to intervene when violence erupts
The Ministry has actively intervened in conflicts in the states
of Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, and Somali
© UC Regents 2013
A national strategy in Ethiopia relies on a government
organization to monitor and intervene in conflicts
Multiple strategies are pursued to manage conflict in the Horn
IGAD is a regional organization that
includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda
In 2002 IGAD members established a
Conflict Early Warning and Response
Mechanism (CEWARN) to issue reports
on incidents of conflict, especially
among pastoralist communities
© UC Regents 2013
A regional strategy pursued by the countries of the Horn is
to work jointly towards conflict management through the
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Further explorations
Explore existing data sources
 Examine how they define and code episodes of conflict
 Compare how different data sources code the same conflicts
 Example: pastoralists conflicts in Ethiopia
 Example: communal conflicts in Kenya
Explore different strategies of conflict management
 Example: peace councils in southern Ethiopia
 Example: African Union’s Peace and Security Department
For More, See http://understandingthehorn.org/
© UC Regents 2013
Explore different types of conflict
Further explorations
Data sources on conflict
 Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD)
<http://www.strausscenter.org/scad.html
 Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/
 Armed Conflict Location & Event Dataset
Reports on conflict-related events and trends
 Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN)
http://www.cewarn.org/
 Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)
http://www.fews.net/east
 Reliefweb
http://reliefweb.int/disaster/dr-2011-000029-ken
© UC Regents 2013
http://www.acleddata.com/
© UC Regents 2013
Understanding the Horn of Africa
CREDITS
Understanding the Horn of Africa
An online curriculum project of the Center for African Studies,
University of California, Berkeley
•
•
•
•
•
Principal Investigator: Leonardo Arriola
Project Coordinator: Martha Saavedra
Project Assistant: Tami Driver,
Web Development: Kim Carl and Howie Lan
Web Designer and Graphics: Casondra Sobieralski
http://understandingthehorn.org/
© UC Regents 2013
This material was developed under a Title VI International Research and Studies grant
from the U.S. Department of Education. However, the content does not necessarily
represent the policy or views of the U.S. Department of Education, or imply
endorsement by the Federal Government.