FY 2008 consolidated results Brussels February 20th, 2009 1 Disclaimer • This presentation is only provided for general information purpose about Elia and its activities. The included statements are neither reported results nor other historical information. They are not provided to serve as the basis for any evaluation of Elia, and cannot be binding and/or enforceable upon Elia. • As forward-looking statements, they are subject to assumptions, risk and uncertainties, actual future results may differ from those expressed in or implied by such statements. • Although Elia uses reasonable cares to present information which is upto-date to the best of Elia's knowledge, Elia makes no representation or warranty whatsoever as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or correctness of such information. • Elia will not be liable for any consequences arising from or related to the use or interpretation of the information contained or absent in this presentation. 2 Agenda Summary Highlights 2008 Financials 2008 Outlook 2009 3 Summary • Highlights 2008 - Results in line with new regulation: higher OLO, incentive, bonus ‘07 - Slight decrease of yearly consumption, mostly due to economic crisis - Full realisation of investment plan; excellent network reliability - Amongst the lowest tariffs in Europe for the 6th year in a row - Growing volume traded on Belpex - European market in progress: CASC, Coreso, ENTSO-E - First consulting contracts • Financials 2008 - Dividend increased to € 1,37 a share • Outlook 2009 - Net profit - Capex 4 Agenda Summary Highlights 2008 Financials 2008 Outlook 2009 5 1. Energy Consumption in Elia’s balancing zone Consumption per month Yearly Energy consumption as seen from Elia’s network decreased slightly to 88 TWh 9000000 8000000 7000000 (88,9 TWh in 2007) 6000000 5000000 2007 2008 4000000 Main reasons • Economic crisis during Q4 (mainly industrial customers) 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Imports and exports per month in 2008 • Increasing local generation at customer sites • Increasing generation from renewable sources at distribution level 1000 500 0 Imports from The Netherlands Exports to The Netherlands -500 Imports from France Exports to France Net Balance -1000 Net import level increased (mainly from the Netherlands side) with 58,2% to 10,6 TWh (6,7 TWh in 2007) -1500 No impact on regulated profit -2000 n Ja 6 b Fe M ar r Ap M ay n Ju l Ju g Au p Se t Oc v No c De (except cash management) 2. Fixed tariffs for the period 2008-2001 Means strong visibility for the cost basis of Elia’s customers 7 •0 8 •Infrastructure •Losses •System Services •Other regulatory charges •Sweden •Spain •Slovenia •Slovak Rep •Romania •Portugal •Poland •Norway •Netherlands •Lithuania •Latvia •Italy •Ireland •Hungary •Greece •Great Britain •Germany •France •Finland •Estonia •Denmark West •Denmark East •Czech Republic •Bulgaria •Belgium •Austria •€ / MWh Among the lowest tariffs in Europe •30 •25 •20 •15 •10 •5 3. Investments 2008 Breakdown CAPEX • Full realisation of Capex plan 2008 CAPEX 2008 € 161,2 m • Focus on internal demand as well as for 9% 10% • Excellent reliability of the network 33% • supporting local generation at sites of industrial customers • facilitation the connection of co-generation and renewables units 44% 48% Replacements Driven by internal consumption Driven by interconnections with neighbours Driven by import levels & generation localisation 9 Investments 2008: a few examples • Extensions and developments at the port of Antwerp (project BRABO) High-voltage “Petrol” station in Antwerp commissioned - improved reliability - needed by economic development High-voltage station “Scheldelaan” - extension for the connection of the cogeneration unit of Exxon - commissioned in December 2008 Investments of about € 20m 10 Investments 2008: a few examples • Renovation of 70 kV stations - Angleur and Liberchies - Investment of about € 15m • Google site - Connection to 150 kV station located in Ghlin Petit Marais - Investment of about € 3,3m (repaid by client) • Greenwind - Windfarm of 25 MW (10 times 2,5 MW) - Connection to 70 kV station of Solre-Saint Géry - Investment of about € 0,7m (repaid by client) • Windvision - Windfarm of 66 MW (11 times 6 MW) - Connection to 70 kV station of Harmignies - Investment of about € 0,6m (repaid by client) 11 Investments 2008: a few examples • Three phase shifters - Location Van Eyck & Zandvliet high - voltage station - Improved control of neighbouring energy flows on the Elia grid for an improved reliability - Optimisation of transmission capacity with interconnected networks - Commissioned at the end of 2008 - Investment of € 54 m 12 4. Belgium, among the most interconnected countries YEAR 2008 COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE IMPORT CAPACITIES In MEGAWATT (MW) South North Total Comment Maximum capacity allocated to the market 3600 1401 5001 Total is 42 % of peak system load of 12001 MW Yearly average capacity allocated to the market 2532 1350 3882 Total is 39 % of average system load of 10024 MW Ex ante guaranteed minimum capacity during line works in France 1600 833 (1 day) 2433 Total is 24 % of average system load 3,005 GWh Netherlands 8,119 GWh Total energy exchanges 2008-07 2008 Direction Exchanged F B 7,386 GWh B F 2,039 GWh NL B 8,119 GWh B NL 3,005 GWh Lux B 1,629 GWh B Lux 1,518 GWh Total 23,696 GWh 2,039 GWh France 7,386 GWh 13 1,629 GWh 1,518 GWh Luxembourg 2007 Exchanged Change 8,332 GWh -11,4% 2,322 GWh -12,2% 5,266 GWh 54,2% 5,084 GWh -40,9% 2,084 GWh -21,8% 1,631 GWh -6,9% 24,719 GWh -4,1% 5. Belgian Power Exchange (Belpex) • 32 diversified participants (suppliers, traders, producers) from 10 countries (NL,CH,UK,FR,BE,GE,CZ,SP,IT,DK) at Dec 31st, 2008 • Average daily volume was 30.372 MWh with the following average electricity prices : • Belix €70,60 MWh (41,85/MWh) • Belix peak (8am-20pm) €85,18 MWh (53,56/MWh) • Belix off-peak (20pm-8am) €56,02 MWh (30,13/MWh) • Record volume of 77.623 MWh on May 3rd, 2008 equals 31% of average Belgian electricity demand • Market coupling induced an average export volume of 1.816 MWh and an high average import volume of 18.582MWh • New products : Intraday & Continuous Day ahead market 14 Belpex volume growth since november 06 Volumes BELPEX DAM & Prices BELPEX, POWERNEXT and APX DAM Period: from 21/11/2006 to 31/12/2008 MWh Volume Belpex Price Belpex Price Powernext Price APX 1.600.000 1.400.000 €/MWh 100,00 90,00 80,00 1.200.000 70,00 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 400.000 20,00 200.000 20 06 20 11 06 20 12 07 20 01 07 20 02 07 20 03 07 20 04 07 20 05 07 20 06 07 20 07 07 20 08 07 20 09 07 20 10 07 20 11 07 20 12 08 20 01 08 20 02 08 20 03 08 20 04 08 20 05 08 20 06 08 20 07 08 20 08 08 20 09 08 20 10 08 20 11 08 12 0 15 10,00 0,00 FR-BE-NE TLC 2008: excellent price convergence Means more competitive wholesale prices in Belgium Border Belgian-French border Constrained Belgian- Constrained F ≠ B ≠ NL Unconstrained F = B ≠ NL Dutch 0,8 % border Unconstrained 16 15,4 % F ≠ B = NL F = B = NL 14,7 % 69,1 % 6. Update Group structure GDF Suez/ Electrabel Publi-T 24,35% Publipart Freefloat 2.54% 33.01% 40,1% Elia: A Single Economic Unit Elia System Operator Licensed System Operator 99.99% Elia Asset 50.0% Coreso 12/2008 Real time control of EU flows 14.3% 24.5% HGRT 12/2001 CASC-CWE 10/2008 4 countries 7 TSOs Auctioning 52,25% shareholder of Powernext (1) 1 share Publi-T, 1 share Electrabel 17 Network Owner (1) 60% Belpex 07/2005 Belgian power exchange 100% Elia Re 02/2002 Captive reinsurance company 100% Elia Engineering 12/2003 Engineering consultancy firm CASC - CWE • Capacity Allocation Service Company for Central-West Europe (Benelux, France and Germany) • First concrete step towards creation of Europe’s largest regional electricity market • Equal shareholdership between 7 TSOs : Cegedel Net, Elia, EnBW TNG, E.ON Netz, RTE, RWE TSO, TenneT • Incorporated in Luxembourg on Sep 9th, 2008 • Joint cross-border service company acting as a single auction office • First joint auctioning of year and month capacities on the common borders between the five countries was held on Nov 28th, 2009 • From Spring 2009, also execution of auctions of daily capacities for borders without market coupling 18 CORESO • Coordination of Electricity System Operators • Second concrete step towards creation of Europe’s largest regional electricity market • Joint venture, currently between RTE and Elia, based on equal shareholdership and partnership • Incorporated in Brussels on Dec 19th, 2008; start of operation foreseen on Feb 16th, 2009 • The first regional technical coordination centre to be shared by several TSOs in the CWE region • National Grid expected to join as full member • Interest from Vattenfall Europe Transmission • The centre will develop forecast management of electricity transits within the CWE region and will monitor these flows in real time around the clock 19 7. First contracts with third parties Third party services • Industrial clients Distribution System Operators Consulting • Marocco, Tunesia, C-Power Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority 20 8. Update Personnel Experienced employees throughout Elia’s organisation Number of Employees at 31/12/08 : 1,231 (FTE : 1125) Transm ission 7% Average length of service in Elia: 14 years Elia Engineering 10% Custom ers & Market 5% Corporate 31% 21 Grid services 47% Average age of workforce: 40 years Agenda Summary Highlights 2008 Financials 2008 Outlook 2009 22 4-year fixed tariff system Implementation of “controllable – non controllable” costs & revenues TODAY PAST NC C Non Tariff Costs Non (2) Tariff Non Controllable Costs (NC) Tariff Tariff Controllable (1) Costs ‘(C) Net profit Charges Net profit Revenues Charges Revenues (1) Mainly consists of purchases of materials, services and other goods & remuneration except the ancillary services & pension costs for retired employees (2) Mainly consists of Telecom services, Third party services, surplus value on sale fixed assets and insurance claims 23 …with netting of costs & revenues Reclassify costs, revenues => controllable & non-controllable NC Non Tariff C Net profit Non (2) Controllable Costs (NC) Tariff C Tariff NC Controllable (1) Costs ‘(C) Net profit Charges Revenues (1) Mainly consists of purchases of materials, services and other goods & remuneration except the ancillary services & pension costs for retired employees (2) Mainly consists of Telecom services, Third party services, surplus value on sale fixed assets and insurance claims 24 X – Y Factor (controllable costs) €m Budget including CPI (1) 255,3 251,3 255,3 260,6 -4m -4m 254,6 –6m –6m 265,3 258,3 -7m -7m 248,6 251,3 2009 2010 -8m 262,3 CPI-X (approved) -8m 254,3 247,3 2008 - X = -25m in total 270,3 -X -Y = -50m in total CPI-X-Y (internal budget) 2011 • Regulator approved € 251,3m net controllable costs for 2008 (255,3m CC minus € 4m imposed cost savings) • Budget Elia : 247,3 mio € Initial budget 255,3 X factor (costsaving) - Y factor (potential outperformance) (1) 25 Controllable non-tariff revenues 4,0 Composition of net profit 1. 2. 3. Fair remuneration (€ 59m in budget 2008) • Equity remuneration based on formula • Deduction over-depreciation of the past (€ 8,2m net) till Q3 2012 Decommissioning (€ 14m in budget 2008) • Goodwill from decommissioning included in tariffs • Reserved for financing future investments Incentivisation on controllable costs • 26 Ceiling = same amount as efficiency gain (X-factor) Overview of Key 2008 IFRS Figures IFRS Income statement (€ million) Consolidated turnover EBITDA (1) Operating result (EBIT) Financial result Taxes Consolidated net profit (incl equity m.) Net profit per share (€) Dividend per share (€) Balance sheet (€ million) Total assets Equity Net debt Equity per share (€) Total number of shares (end of period) 2008 2007 757,3 731,7 334,1 308,5 237,9 214,7 (109,3) (104,0) (27,2) (32,9) 103,1 77,6 2,14 1,62 1,37 1,30 31/12/2008 31/12/2007 4.228,1 3.977,9 1.348,1 1.338,6 2.370,5 2.196,7 28,04 27,85 48.076.949 (1) EBITDA = EBIT + depreciation + changes in provisions 27 48.061.695 Change In % 3,5% 8,3% 10,8% 5,1% -17,3% 32,9% 32,3% 5,4% 6,3% 0,7% 7,9% 0,7% 0,03% 2008 Profit and Loss Bottom-up Approach of Elia’s P&L in 2008 (EUR m): calculation of net profit 654,2 Non tariff 61,2 Tariff Shortfall 18,2 Costs Tariff 677,9 Average RAB 2007 Reference equity (33%) Cost of equity Equity reference remuneration (A) 2008 A 3.673 1.212 (1) 5,62% 68,1 Av. equity / Av. assets Deviation on ref. equity Equity deviation remuneration D-factor (B) 35,93% 36,45% 2,93% (3) 3,45% 5,14% 4,63% 5,5 5,8 -8,2 -8,2 Fair remuneration (A+B+C) 65,5 59,2 Goodwill decommissioning Controllable cost incentive 15,0 4,4 14,2 0,0 1,9 0,0 86,8 73,4 Net profit Belgian GAAP (tariffs) Net profit Consolidation Belpex Charges (1) (2) (3) 28 Revenues OLO of 4,4414%; Beta of 0,336 and a risk premium of 3,5% Av. Equity =1.319,9 and Av. Assets = 3.673,4 OLO of 4,4414 & deviation rate of 70 bp (2) Over-depreciation (C) Bonus 2007 103,1 2008 E 3.611 1.192 5,17% 61,6 IFRS reconciliation Net profit IFRS 0,3 16,0 103,1 Controllable items : Budget <> Reality 29 17,4 23,8 Budget Reality Revenues = 6,4 Total outperformance = € 8,4m X factor = € 4m Y profit = € 4,4m 270,7 Reality Budget 272,7 Costs = -2 First results from increased efficiency Extra revenues thanks to third party services and first consulting contracts Reconciliation Be GAAP - IFRS IFRS Impact on Equity and Net Profit as of 31 December 2008 103,1 87,1 (5,6) 2,8 Regulatory Assets Elia Re 4,1 (5,8) 3,0 Capitalisation Software Deferred taxes Other Net Profit 17,5 31/12/2008 Belgian GAAP Employee Benefits 72,6 1.367,9 17,8 (1) 15,0 10,7 Elia Re Others 31/12/2008 IFRS 1.348,1 Equity (135,9) 31/12/2008 Belgian GAAP Employee benefits Regulatory assets Capitalisation software (1) Mainly relates to Inventory valuation (€2,6m) and goodwill Bel engineering (€ 6,9m) 30 31/12/2008 IFRS Regulated Asset Base 2008 Evolution 2008 RAB 3,764,4 3.582,4 132,4 (91,8) Year-end 2007 Average RAB (1) Depreciation Divestm. & Decommissioning 3.512 (1) 31 (18,2) 159,6 Capex Change in WCR Year-end 2008 3.673 Includes € 15 million goodwill decommissioning Working Capital Requirements Changes in Working Capital Requirements (EUR m) 98,8 (1) 18,2 132,4 Shortfall 2008 Total Change in WCR 16,1 2008 (45,6) 44,9 Inventory, trade & all debtors <1 year (1) 32 Tax receivable, including interests due Based on Belgian GAAP accounts Trade creditors & others Accrued charges & deferred income Breakdown Costs Evolution of Costs between 2008 and 2007 (EUR m) 654,2 138,8 Ancillary services (reserve energy) 150,8 Raw materials, Services & Other goods 135,0 -2,7% 153,7 +1,9% 118,8 +4,2% 114,0 Personnel Expenses (mainly pension funds & inflation) 14,0 -27,8% 19,4 Others 96,2 +2,6% 93,8 Depreciation 109,3 +5,1% 27,2 2008 33 653,7 -17,3% 104,0 32,9 2007 Financial charges Taxes Non - Tariff Revenues Breakdown of Non – Tariff Revenues in 2008 and 2007 (EUR m) 68,1 61,2 28,2 -34,6% 16,2 +2,5% 13,0 3,8 (2) 2008 34 43,1 International revenues (mainly due to lower wholesale price differentials and lower revenues from congestion) +5,7% 15,8 Fixed assets own construction capitalised 12,3 Telecom & third party services -3,1 (1) Others 2007 (1) In 2007 « others » include € -13m reversal of the regulatory asset as a result of a new collectieve agreement (one-off payment) (2) In 2008 « others » include the reversal of € 5m related to interests to recover on the tax receivable Tariff Revenues Breakdown of Tariff Revenues in 2008 and 2007 (EUR m) 677,9 653,6 32,7 113,4 -12,1% 32,3 129,0 20,9 85,6 510,9 Tariffs for ancillary services Tariffs out of previous surpluses +25,6% 406,7 Tariffs for grid use 9,9 18,2 2008 Tariff shortfall 35 Connection tariffs 2007 0,5 4,9 4,5 Operational Appeal Bonus 2005 Settlement Bonus 2006 Non controllable items : Budget <> Reality Tariff = + 1,4 Reality Revenues = - 21,4 Budget Costs = Revenues = - 21,4 m Reality Budget Reality Net profit = -8,8 m Tariff = + 1,4 m Reality Budget Net profit = +8,8 Budget + 10,6 m Tariff shortfall = 18,2 m Costs = - 10,6 36 Overview treatment of surpluses Overview of allocation and use of total surpluses In millions of EUR Surplus 2003 Bonus 2003 Used Total 2003 Surplus 2004 Bonus 2004 Used Total 2004 Surplus 2005 Bonus 2005 Surplus 2006 Used Totaal 2005 Surplus 2006 Malus 2006 Used Totaal 2006 Surpluses/ (Shortages) 134,6 3,2 137,8 118,9 3,5 122,4 35,1 2,3 3,8 41,2 56,2 1,8 2004 25,4 -25,4 0,0 2005 36,4 3,2 -39,6 0,0 28,0 -28,0 0,0 7,4 -7,4 0,0 58,0 Reversal decided by regulator for period 2008-2011 Used Subtotal 359,4 Shortage 2007 -0,5 Bonus 05 & 06 -9,4 Totaal 2007 -9,9 Shortage 2008 -18,2 Total Surplus 331,3 (1) To be allocated by CREG in the next regulatory period 37 2006 36,4 2007 36,4 -36,4 0,0 9,8 3,5 -13,3 0,0 -36,4 0,0 9,8 -9,8 0,0 27,7 2,3 3,8 -33,8 0,0 5,6 -5,6 0,0 2008 2009 2010 23,8 23,8 23,7 23,8 23,8 23,7 22,8 34,0 2011 Total 134,6 3,2 -137,8 0,0 118,9 3,5 -51,1 71,3 35,1 2,3 3,8 -41,2 0,0 56,2 1,8 -5,6 52,4 46,0 123,7 -20,9 102,8 -0,5 -9,4 -9,9 -18,2 50,6 1,8 52,4 20,9 -20,9 -0,5 -9,4 (1) -9,9 -18,2 (1) 74,7 Financial Debt Position Elia benefits from a strong credit rating Standard & Poor’s rating: Long Term: AOutlook: Stable 2.397,7 2.230,1 2.500 2.000 1.500 350,0 164,2 1000,0 250 883,5 (1) 31/12/2008 31/12/2007 Net debt Leverage (D/D+E) 2.370,4 63,7% 2.196,7 62,1% Net debt / EBITDA Average cost of debt % Fixed of gross debt 7,1 5,15% 70,0% 7,1 4,99% 73,2% 99,8 Unused Credit lines as of 31/12/08 European Investment Bank Committed bank loan Uncommitted bank loan Commercial paper program 996,8 1.000 500 € millions 883,5 Amount (€ m) 65 50 80 188 0 31/12/2008 Shareholders' loans ST bank loans (1) 31/12/2007 Eurobonds EIB + CP + Accrued interests In September 2009, a shareholders’ loan of € 387,7m will be repaid. This loan together with the short bank loans will be refinanced through a new Eurobond to be launched before September 38 Interest rate Euribor + 5 bp Euribor + 25 bp To be negotiated To be negotiated Reimbursement schedule till 2022 The duration of the refinancing of € 800 million in 2009 will take into account the several other maturity dates; refinancing will be achieved before September 2009 Reimbursement schedule till 2022 900 800 700 MM € 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2009 2010 2011 Eurobond 2012 EIB 2013 2014 2015 Synatom 2016 Publi-Part ING Publi-Part 39 2017 2018 2019 Dexia 2020 ING 2021 2022 Dividend Policy Elia’s dividend policy ensures a steady and growing dividend 2,1 91,8% In EUR 1,6 1,27 89,6% 1,27 89,9% 1,28 1,30 90% 1,37 85% 1,1 80% 0,6 79,3% 0,1 -0,4 75,7% 2004 2005 Dividend 2006 2007 2008 Pay-out ratio • Increase in dividend to € 1,37 per share • Pay-out ratio over 2008 Belgian Gaap result is 75,7% (63,9% under IFRS) 40 75% 70% Agenda Summary Highlights 2008 Financials 2008 Outlook 2009 41 Outlook CAPEX 2009 CAPEX 2009 € 117 m • Capex = €117 m (€157m initially) 17% 37% 8% 44% 38% • Main reasons: • Reduced energy consumption due to economic crisis • Delayed projects by industrial customers • Reduction of financing requirements • No impact on regulated profit (ROE remuneration) 42 Replacements Driven by interconnections with neighbours Driven by internal consumption Driven by renewables & generation localisation Outlook 2009: RAB 3.856 3.764 84 2008 (92) (17) Depreciation Divestm. & Decomm. (1) 117 Capex Average 3.673 RAB (1) Contains € 14m of goodwill reduction due to decommissioning 43 Change in WCR 2009 3.810 Outlook 2009 : Fair remuneration Determination of net profit 2009 by the regulator (Belgian GAAP) (3) Average RAB 2009 Reference equity (33%) Cost of equity (3) Equity reference remuneration (A) (3) Av. equity / Av. RAB Deviation on reference equity Equity deviation remuneration (3) D-factor (B) CREG 3.810 1.257 5,08% (1) 63,8 35,12% 2,12% (2) 4,63% 3,7 Over-depreciation (C) -8,2 Fair remuneration (A+B+C) =(1) 59,3 Goodwill decommissioning (3) Controllable cost incentive (3) Net profit as set by tariffs (2) 14,2 (3) = Y 0,0 (=1+2+3) 73,5 Not available for profit distribution; €14,2 is the estimated yearly amount for the period 2008-2011 (1) OLO of 3,9278%; Beta of 0,3301 and a risk premium of 3,5% (2) (3) OLO of 3,9278% and deviation rate of 70bp To be recomputed ex-post based on real OLO, real beta, real RAB & Equity, real decommissioning and real controllable cost savings 44 New Projects, Services, Activities Major projects investigated pending regulatory approval • - 380 kV line towards Belgian coast (off-shore wind energy) - Connection of a future 450 MW power plant in Seneffe - Interconnections with UK, Germany and Luxembourg Services • To be launched in 2009 • Belpex : launch of Green Certificates Exchange • Coreso : 24h real time control of electricity flows in CWE area • CASC : secondary market for cross-border transmission capacity • ENTSO-E : 42 TSOs out 34 European countries Contemplated for 2010 and beyond • Market coupling between Benelux – Germany – France Activities • Pursuing « operational excellence » Consulting and services for third parties, partnership 45 Questions & Answers Investors Relations – Contact details Bert Maes Tel: + 32 (0)2/546.72.39 Mail: bert.maes@elia.be Website: http://www.elia.be 46