Tools to Guide WLI Community
Interventions for Saving Water and
Creating Economic Opportunity
Boubaker Dhehibi (SEPRP – ICARDA: b.dhehibi@cgiar.org)
&
Samia Akrouch (NCARE – Jordan: samia@ncare.gov.jo)
November, 11th 2014
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
WLI 6th Annual Regional Coordination Meeting
11-12 November 2014
Amman – Jordan
Reference: WLI technical meeting 05-06 November 2013
Thematic Group: Economics of Natural Resources
Management (ENRM)
Research Needs:
 Assessments of water saving technologies: Cost Benefit Analysis
(CBA)/ saving water (is one important approach to be tackled e.g. watershed catchment cisterns as the case of Palestine);
 Comparison between non-conventional and conventional water
use (introduction of some endogenous plants);
 Economic valuation of land and water degradation.
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Thematic Group Background
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
WATER AND LIVELIHOODS INITIATIVE REGIONAL WORKSHOP FOR THE ECONOMICS OF
NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
24-25 JUNE 2014 – AMMAN - JORDAN
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To provide the WLI researchers specific research
concepts and tools for assessing the profitability of
improved interventions in the management of NR;
Share, discuss and advance methods on the application
of the cost-benefit tool, adaptation and data needs;
Support the WLI national teams with up to date
concepts, analytical tools and practical applications to
ensure the progress and delivery of research outputs.
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Workshop Objectives
The workshop was for sharing, working together and
advance WLI socio economic - with the collaboration of
biophysical - teams work to achieve planned outputs.
By the end of the workshop, the participants were able
to gain:
 An understanding of the basic principles of cost-benefit
analysis;
 Insights into how to quantify costs and benefits;
 Hands-on practice at building a simple cost benefit model;
 Proficiency on understanding and analyzing how an
agricultural innovation will be adopted within a given
population.
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Workshop Structure
Country
Jordan
Location
Technology
Jordan Badia
Marabs
Who (names)
Institution
Dr. Samia Akroush
NCARE
Palestine
Nassarya and Tamun Silage production
Dr. Nasser Shaoli
NARC
Egypt
Old Lands
Raised Bed
Dr. Sha’aban Al
Salem
ARC
Abu Ghraib
Sub-surface
Irrigation under
protected
Agriculture
Dr. Ahmed Adnan
Alfalahi
State Board of
Agricultural
Research (SBAR),
MoA
El Qaa
Conservation
Agriculture
Lebanese
Agricultural
Eng Randa Massad
Research Institute
(LARI)
Delta Abyan
Supplemental
Irrigation of Spate
Irrigated Sesame
Dr. Khader Balem
Atroosh
Iraq
Lebanon
Yemen
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
List of Technologies Implemented by the WLI
Team
Elkod Agricultural
Reasearch Station,
AREA, MAI
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Tools and Techniques Used in the Guidance
Process

Determine Costs;

Calculate Benefits;

Compare Alternatives;

Report and Plan Action.
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
 Cost – Benefit Analysis Tool
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Benefit-cost analysis of technologies using Partial Budget Analysis
Without technology
With technology option
1Costs
A
B
C
Costs
D
E
F
Quantity Unit price Total
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
C14-C9
18% change in NR
19% change in TC
20IRR
21Benefit-cost Ratio
Inputs
seeds
fert
pesticides
labor
fuel
machiney
Total
Quantity Unit price Total
XX
Revenue
Main product
Secondary
product
Total revenue XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
F14-F9
(F17-C17)/C17
C14/C9
(F9-C9)/C9
Change NR/Change in TC
F14/F9
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
2Inputs
3seeds
4fert
5pesticides
6labor
7fuel
8machiney
9Total
10
11Revenue
12Main product
Secondary
13 product
14Total revenue
15
16Indicators
17Net returns
Key Features of the Partial Budget Form
 Transparency- production, prices, etc.
 Different professionals (agronomists, economists,
farmers can scrutinize)
 Provides basic agronomic and economic indicators
 Forms the basis for more sophisticated analysis-such
as optimal crop allocation and input use (farm
models)
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
 Simplicity
Benefit-cost analysis of technologies using Partial Budget Analysis
Without technology
(Sorghum)
1
Costs
2 Inputs
3 seeds
4 fert
5 pesticides
6 labor
7 Irrigation
8 machiney
9 Total
10
A
B
C
Unit
kg/ha
kg/ha
Quantity
36.0
60.0
Unit price
1.3
0.7
Total
l/ha
man/day
m3
hour
0.0
30.0
7000.0
7.1
0.0
5.0
0.08
18.6
45.2
44.6
0.0
151.2
542.5
132.1
915.6
Revenue(Inc
11 luding
livestock)
Main
product
Secondary
13
product
12
14
With technology option (Lipid)
Costs
Inputs
seeds
fert
pesticides
labor
Irrigation
machiney
Total
D
E
F
Unit
kg/ha
kg/ha
Quantity
5.0
30.0
Unit price
20.0
0.7
Total
l/ha
man/day
m3
hour
0.0
80.0
5920.0
7.1
0.0
5.0
0.08
18.6
kg/ha
398000
0.05
19900.00
0
0
0
0
100.0
22.3
0.0
403.2
458.8
131.8
1116.1
Revenue(Inclu
ding livestock)
kg/ha
18000
0.162
2916
0
0
0
0
Total
revenue
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16 Indicators
17 Net returns
2916
Main product
Secondary
product
Total revenue
19900.00
2000.38
18783.88
18
% change in
NR
8.39
19
% change in
TC
0.22
20 IRR
21
Benefit-cost Ratio
38.31
3.18
17.83
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Sorghum vs Lipid Technology in Yemen
Tools and Techniques Used in the Guidance
Process - ADOPT

Predicts the likely peak of adoption and
the likely time to reach that peak;

Encourages users to consider the
influence of a structured set of factors
affecting adoption;

Engages R,D & E managers by involving
them in the process and making
adoptability
knowledge
and
considerations readily available and
understandable.
Sources:
Kuehne, G., Llewellyn R., Pannell, D., Wilkinson, R., Dolling, P., Ouzman, J. (2013). ADOPT: the Adoption and
Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool (Public Release Version 1.0, June 2013) [Computer software] Adelaide SA;
CSIRO. Available from www.csiro.au/ADOPT
http://aciar.gov.au/files/node/13992/adopt_a_tool_for_evaluating_adoptability_of_agric_94588.pdf
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
 ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
ADOPT- Conceptual Framework
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ADOPT- Conceptual Framework
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Relative Advantage for the Population
Profit orientation
Environmental orientation
Risk orientation
Enterprise scale
Management horizon
Short term constraints
Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation
Trialable
Innovation complexity
Observability
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ADOPT- Conceptual Framework
Learnability of Population
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Advisory support
Group involvement
Relevant existing skills & knowledge
Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
Relative upfront cost of innovation
Reversibility of innovation
Profit benefit in years that it is used
Future profit benefit
Time until any future profit benefits are likely to be realised
Environmental costs & benefits
Time to environmental benefit
Risk exposure
Ease and convenience
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ADOPT – Practical Case
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Focus Group Meeting: WLI Farmers – Badia Jordan (Water harvesting
techniques)
Photo Source: Dr Samia Akroush (2014)
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ADOPT – Practical Case
Predicted Adoption Levels
11.9
95%
62.9%
94.6%
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Predicted years to peak adoption
Predicted peak level of adoption
Predicted adoption level in 5 years from start
Predicted adoption level in 10 years from start
Predicted Adoption Curve
Adoption Level S-Curve
100
90
80
Adoption Level (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Time (years)
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ADOPT – Practical Case
Sensitivity Analysis to Step Change of Response
Change In
Time to Peak Adoption Level
Step Up
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Sensitivity Analysis of Adoption Curve
Step Down
2.5
2.0
Change in
Time to
Peak Adoption Level
(years)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Question Number
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ADOPT – Practical Case
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Time to Peak Adoption Level: Constraints
• Size of the up-front cost of the investment relative to the
potential annual benefit from using the innovation;
• The proportion of the target population need to develop
substantial new skills and knowledge to use the innovation;
• The easiness of the innovation (or significant components of
it) be trialled on a limited basis before a decision is made to
adopt it on a larger scale;
• Short-term financial constraints determines the time to peak
adoption.
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What’s Next
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Experience with this technology;
Degree of awareness;
Degree of adoption;
Constraints / barriers to adoption;
Requirements for adoption;
Factors influencing / determinants adoption;
Raisons for non-adoption.
2. Sustainability Development Indicators (SDI’s)
Without technology: Reference situation (baseline database) and with technology (adopters at farm level)
Possible Indicators
Economic Indicators: Crop Yields; Farm income (livestock and crops); Production costs, etc.
Environmental indicators: Erosion (soil runoff); Soil salinity; Soil fertility; Pesticide and
nutrient use
Social indicators: Revenue per head of family, Hours of labor, Women involvement, etc.
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International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
1. Technology Adoption Assessment / Scaling-out
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
Thank you for your attention
WATER AND LIVELIHOODS INITIATIVE REGIONAL WORKSHOP FOR THE ECONOMICS OF NATURAL
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
24-25 JUNE 2014 – AMMAN - JORDAN
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