The world's bioenergy potential in the
context of global food and farming
trends
Fridolin Krausmann
Based on research by H. Haberl, K.H. Erb, C. Lauk, C.
Plutzar, J. K. Steinberger, C. Müller, A. Bondeau
et.al.
Institute for Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria Universität
Potsdam Institut for Climate Impact Reasearch – PIK
Potsdam
Project „Feeding and fuelling the world 2050“
• Goals:
– Understanding the interrelations between diet patterns, agriculture,
bioenergy and climate change. (Deforestation was not considered!)
– Exploring the possibilities to meet global food demand in 2050 under
different assumptions on
•
•
•
•
•
Dietary patterns
Expansion of cropland
Changes in land use intensity/agricultural yields
Changes in intensity and efficiency of livestock production systems
Climate change
– Quantification of bioenergy potentials in 2050
• We acknowledge the funding of this research by: FWF – Austrian
Science Fund, Compassion in World Farming, Friends of the Earth, UK
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Eleven World Regions
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Socio-ecological Characteristica of
Worldregions
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Biomass use (per capita) 2000
250
Export
Industrial Wood
200
Fuelwood (max)
150
100
Grazing incl residues and
fodder
Market feed
Food(processing)
Seed
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Oceania
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Latin America
Northern
America
South-Eastern
Asia
Southern Asia
Eastern Asia
Central Asia &
GUS
-
Sub-Saharan
Africa
50
N. Africa & W.
Asia
[GJ/cap]
Other use
Solid empirical database for 2000: Three
consistent datasets
• Land use: Consistency between pixels (5 min, 10x10 km)
and statistical data at country level (cropland and woodlands
according to FAO, FRA und TBFRA).
Erb et al. 2007. J. Land Use Sci. 2, 191-224
• Biomass balances at country level: Production and
consumption of biomass by type (ca. 160 countries): Feed
balances, processing losses, trade, trends 1960-2000.
Krausmann et al. 2008. Ecol. Econ. 65, 471-487.
• HANPP: Global human appropriation of NPP, potential and
actual NPP und Biomass harvest (5 min, 10x10 km) based
on land use data set, FAO statistics and DGVMModellierung (LPJmL).
Haberl et al., 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 12942-12947.
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Biomass-Balance Modell
From final demand to land
requirements
- Crop products, forage and
grazed biomass
- Balance of supply and
demand
- Regional deficits balanced
by trade
- Evaluation of global balance
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Diet patterns in 2000 and
four scenarios for 2050
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FAO Prognosis: Crop production 1960-2050
6,0
5,0
Other crops
[million t dm/yr]
4,0
Vegetables and fruits
Roots and tubers
3,0
Pulses
Sugar
Oil bearing crops
Cereals
2,0
1,0
1960
1970
1980
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1990
2000
2010
2020
FAO 2006, World agriculture
towards 2030/2050, Rome.
2030
2040
2050
Scenarios of cropland expansion 2050
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Crop yields 1960 to 2050:
Three scenarios
FAO
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Organic
Intermediate
Mix of livestock production systems
2000 und 2050
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
Subsistence
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2050 Intensive
Market-oriented extensive
2050 Humane
Organic
Humane
2050 Organic
Intensive
Conversion efficiencies livestock system
1960-2050
300
16
Ruminants
Monogastric
14
250
12
10
Input / Output
Input / Output
200
150
8
6
100
4
50
2
-
1940
1960
1980
2000
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2020
2040
2060
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Calculation of Bioenergy Potential
(Primary biomass!)
• Bioenergy from cropland:
– In case „free“ cropland is available: Bioenergypotential = potential
aboveground NPP.
– In case the demand for crop products exceeds supply by less than 5%:
„negativ“ bioenergy potential is subtracted from the potential available on
grassland.
• Bioenergy from grassland:
– Best grassland (category 1 out of four) is used more intensively.
– Grassland area in category 1 which becomes available by this measure is
used for bioenergy production (aboveground NPP of act. vegetation).
• Bioenergy from crops residues:
– Requirements for feeding livestock and bedding are subtracted from
available production.
– 50% of the reminder can be used for bioenergy production
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Climate Impacts for Cropland Productivity
(calculated with LPJmL)
Table 1. Modelled climate impact on cropland yields in 2050 with and without CO 2 fertilization
Mean yield change under climate change 2050
Northern Africa and Western Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central Asia and Russian Federation
Eastern Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Northern America
Latin America & the Carribean
Western Europe
Eastern & South-Eastern Europe
Oceania and Australia
with CO2 fertilization
+ 4.44 %
+ 8.46 %
+ 24.91 %
+ 11.96 %
+ 18.45 %
+ 28.22 %
+ 12.45 %
+ 12.39 %
+ 16.42 %
+ 19.08 %
+ 0.74 %
Source: Average of LPJmL model runs for 15 climate scenarios for 2050.
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without CO2 fertilization
- 8.65 %
- 6.17 %
+ 5.12 %
- 3.90 %
- 15.61 %
- 15.83 %
- 6.25 %
- 7.02 %
+ 2.04 %
- 0.66 %
- 16.02 %
Results: Feasibility Analysis
-
Not
feasible
Probably
feasible
Feasible
Highly
feasible
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Bioenergy potential 2050 in relation to diet
assumptions (44 feasible scenarios)
200
180
Geometric mean
Bioenergy potential [EJ/yr]
160
Min
140
Max
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Western high
meat (1)
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Current trend
(12)
Less meat (14) Fair less meat
(17)
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Oceania,
Australia
E & S-E Europe
Western Europe
Latin America,
Carribean
Northern
America
South-Eastern
Asia
Southern Asia
Eastern Asia
C Asia, Russian
Fed
Sub-Saharan
Africa
N Africa W Asia
[EJ/yr]
Regional distrubution of bioenergy potential
(Trend-scenario: Total of 105 EJ/yr)
30
25
Primary crops
Residues
20
15
10
5
0
Bioenergy potentials and climate impacts
(Trend Scenario)
160
140
Grazing land
Bioenergy potential [EJ/yr]
120
Cropland residues
Cropland primary
100
80
60
40
20
No climate change
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Including CO2 fertilization
Excluding CO2 fertilization
Potential from Bioenergy plantations in 2050,
Global Energy Assessment (forthcom. 2010, prelim.)
160
140
120
[EJ/yr]
100
Min
Max
Intermediate
80
60
WBGU, 2008.
Bioenergie und
nachhaltige
Landnutzung.
Berlin.
40
20
0
Van Vuuren et
al 2009
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WBGU 2008
Erb et al 2009
GEA
Van Vuuren 2009,
Energy Policy
Global Energy Flows: Overview
Total terrestrial NPP
Terrestrial aboveground NPP
Human harvest (used and unused)
Fossil energy consumption
Biomass for technical energy
Global technical primary energy supply
Bioenergy potential, range var. estimates
Bioenergy potential 2050, this study
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2.190 EJ/yr
1.240 EJ/yr
346 EJ/yr
453 EJ/yr
54 EJ/yr
551 EJ/yr
33-1.290 EJ/yr
58-158 EJ/yr
Conclusions
• Feeding a growing world population is possible with ecologically sound
agricultural production – but only at a modest increase of the share of
animal products in human diet.
• Dietary patterns matter: An increase in the share of animal products in
human diets has far reaching implications:
– Need to intensify land use (yield increases, feeding efficiency)
– Expansion of cropland
– Bioenergy potential reduced
• Food security and bioenergy are possible without further deforestation.
• Bioenergy and globalisation: Largest bioenergy potentials in Subsaharan
Africa and Latin America.
• Climate matters: Bioenergy potential strongly depends on diet patterns
and climate impacts. The later are only poorly understood.
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Report „Eating the planet?“ online:
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/downloads/WP116_WEB.pdf
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Data download
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm
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