Afghanistan
The country where empires
come to die.
President Karsi
Fairly weak President
Some refer to as mayor of Kabul
Charges of corruption
Our hope for central govt.
Possibly supported by Opium
Traffickers
Population Ethnic Makeup
Total Population 32 million
Pashtuns: 42%
Tajiks 27%
Hazara 9% (kite runner)
Uzbek 9%
Aimak 4%
Turkmen 3%
Balock 2%
Other 4%
Language
Dari (Like Farsi) 50%
Pashto (official) 35%
Turkic 11%
30 other minority languages.
Religion: Islam
Sunni: 80% (Most of Arab world,
dominate branch of Islam.)
Shiite: 20% (Iran, Parts of Iraq, Parts
of Pakistan)
Quality of Life Indicators (U.S. in
parenthesis for comparison)
Life Expectancy at birth: 44 (78)
Literacy: 28%; 12% for women (99% U.S)
GDP per capita:
Afghanistan $1000 per year or less
$2600 in Pakistan;
$12,000 in Iran.
GDP
Afghanistan 29 Billion,
U.S. 15 Trillion,
Pakistan 200 Billion
Iran 480 Billion;
Pop below poverty: 53% (12%)
Unemployment rate 40% (7%)
Population
Afghanistan 30 million,
Pakistan 180 million
Iran 80 Million; (Iraq 30 million)
Economy
Opium Production major economic
engine (plus U.S. aid) 80-90% of
European heroin comes from
Afghanistan.
Recently huge deposits of Copper,
Iron and Gold Discovered
Defense Department puts a Trillion
dollar price tag on the deposits.
Control of the operations and,
apparently kickbacks, went to Karsai’s
brother.
Can Raw materials alone help?
Population’s concerns
Do you back U.S.? What if they leave
and you have to answer to Taliban?
Remember the U.S. pulled out after the
Soviets left. Leaving behind a bunch of
armed and trained Mujahedeen or “holy
warriors.”
Hindu Kush in East is where Taliban
and Al Qaeda hang out.
Taliban
Sunni Wahabi leaning Muslims, who don’t
consider Shiites’s Muslim.
Leader is Mullah Omar.
Fundamentalist, many of who studied in
Madras in Pakistan. In these “schools”
students often just memorize the Koran in
Arabic.
Reigned from 1996 until Northern Alliance
and U.S. forced from power after 911. Took
over after Soviets expelled.
Taliban
Enforce fundamental Sharia, or
Islamic Law. Which requires women
to stay inside unless accompanied by
male family member, men to wear
beards, no music, dancing, booze.
Enforcement takes place in public,
including flogging, beheading and
stoning to death for various
infractions.
Sharia law enforced by Taliban
Big Questions
Can a stable government be installed
in a fundamentally unstable country?
Can we ever leave and not have the
Taliban, or more importantly, Al
Qaeda returned to install bases.?
Is there an exit strategy?
Can we pull them out of poverty, if
we can’t pull ourselves?
For Test: The Country
Ethnically fractured; Groups don’t get
along; many controlled by elders that
people do support.
Weak, corrupt central government,
not supported by many.
Ahmed Karzai is President:
For Test: The Taliban
Ethnically Pashtun Mujahadeen (holy
warriors) from mountains between Pakistan
and Afghanistan. Originally trained by U.S.
and Pakistan to fight Soviets.
Controlled country from Soviets leaving
until our invasion.
Conservative Sunni Muslims who enforced
a strict version of Shariah law, including
beheadings, stonings, acid in the faces of
girls and beatings.
Sympathetic to, but not Al Qaeda.
For Test: Taliban
Consist of different tribal groups who
used to fight each other, but were
united by their leader Mullah Omar
and a common enemy, us.
For Test: Taliban
Have recently moved into Pakistan
tribal areas to get away from U.S.
Last summer, invaded the SWAT
valley of Pakistan and took over many
nontribal areas, enforced Shariah
there, driving away businesses.
Pakistan finally got serious and have
attacked them and driven back in
mountains.
For Test: Taliban
Could be threat to government in
Pakistan if they band together with
other conservative Islamic groups.
Not supported by majority of Afghan
people because of their harsh
implementation of Shariah. But they
have the guns.
Funded by Al Qaeda and Heroin
trade.
For Test: Taliban
Main complaint with the U.S. is that we are
there.
U.S. seen as occupying army of infidels.
Have never and probably don’t have the
capacity to attack U.S.
They did provide safe haven for Al Qaeda,
but probably aren’t that loyal to them,
except they are also enemies of U.S.
Questionable if they have the power to take
over again if we leave, particularly if we
supply air support to Aghans.
For Test: Al Qaeda
Sunni Wahabbist, conservative
Islamic group primarily from Saudi
Arabia
They have become a brand name
now, and disaffected Muslims from all
over think of themselves as Al Qaeda.
Leader is Osama Bin Ladin
Second in command Hyman Wazzira.
Currently
90,000 U.S. troops.
Spent about 300 billion dollars
Have trained about ½ as many soldiers and police
as needed. Mostly incompetent and illiterate
Have not funded as many reconstruction projects
as most Afghans have expected.
Have not made a dent in corruption or poppy
growth
Have killed many civilians attempting to “drone” Al
Qaeda and Taliban.
Have lost 800 U.S. lives.
Suggested Strategies
Currently: Clear, Hold, Build.
No, lighter, faster, special ops and drones
General McChrystal, the U.S. commander
has asked for 40,000 additional troops to
maintain strategy. Probably at least 10
more years, billons of more dollars and
thousands of death to accomplish.
Might stabilize country, protect Pakistan
(they have Nukes)
Suggested Strategies
The George Will Strategy, endorsed
by many Democrats:
Pull our troops out and focus on killing
Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders using
spies, offshore air strikes and drones.
The George Will Strategy
The Zakaria Strategy: seems to be the one
Obama is leaning toward.
Keep the troop levels about the same.
Protect population, keep Taliban from
taking over entire country.
Try to build infrastructure: schools, roads,
etc.
Buy off tribal elders and drug planters.
Strike at Al Qaeda when we can.
Focus more on Pakistan.
For Test: Al Qaeda
They believe in a strict enforcement of Shariah law too, but
there focus is more international than local.
There major issue with the U.S. is that we have occupied
Saudi Arabia, the Holy Lands of Islam.
We have had troops there since the first Gulf War, probably
to protect the oil fields from a possible Iranian invasion and
to support our efforts in Iraq.
Since then, Al Qaeda has:
tried twice to blow up the World Trade Center, once
succeeded.
Blown up our Embassy in Kenya.
Attempted to blow up the U.S.S. Cole, killing several
Americans.
Set off bombs in the London Subway
Blown up a train in Spain
Attempted to blow up American airplanes.
For Test: Al Qaeda
Al Qaeda used to be headquartered in
Sudan, but moved to Afghanistan after U.S.
pressured Sudanese government to expel.
1992: First attempt at World Trade Center
1997 Clinton tried to hit with cruise missile,
Bin Laden got away.
2001 Succeed blowing up World Trade
Center.
2001 we invaded Afghanistan but were
unable to catch him.
For Test: Al Qaeda
Funded by worldwide contributions
since it has become a name brand.
Funded by Osama Bin Ladin, whose
father is a wealthy Saudi industrialist.
Funded by “blood diamonds” when
we went after Bin Ladin’s bank
assets, they bought diamonds, which
are portable and untraceable.