COALITION/COMBINED TASK FORCE
TRAINING
Multinational Force
Staff Estimates
MPAT SECRETARIAT
Purpose
The purpose of this class is to discuss
formulating and using the staff
estimate as part of the Crisis Action
Planning (CAP) / Commander’s
Estimate military course of action
(COA) development process.
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
Definition
Staff Estimate Objectives
Staff Estimate Process
Staff Estimate Steps
Staff Estimate Submission
Staff Estimate Format
References
MULTINATIONAL FORCE
STANDING OPERATING PROCEDURES
(MNF SOP)
MNF SOP First Draft
FIRST DRAFT 1.2
LAST UPDATE: 10 July 03
JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations
JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning
Guidance & Procedures
Definition
• Staff Estimate: Assessments of
courses of action by the various staff
elements of a command that serve as
the foundation of the commander’s
estimate.
Staff Estimate Objectives
• Ensures COAs developed are complete from
staff element’s perspective
• Refines COAs prior to analysis and provides
staff input for COA comparison and selection
• Provides analysis, recommendations and
conclusion of staff sections on applicable
COAs
• Serves as the basis for Commander’s
Estimate
• Create concepts and products for CTF order
Crisis Action Planning Process
C
R
I
S
I
S
II
I
Crisis
Situation
Development Assessment
I
Mission Analysis/
Restated Mission
III
Course of
Action
Development
Warning
Order
IV
Course of
Action
Selection
OPORD
V
VI
Execution
Execution
Planning Deployment
Data Base
Alert
Order
Planning
Order
Execute
Order
AND/OR
II
Course of Action
Development
The Staff Estimate
III
Analysis of Opposing
Courses of Action
IV
Comparison of Own
Courses of Action
Commander’s Estimate Process
V
Commander’s
Decision
Staff Estimate Process
• Staff estimates begin with mission analysis and
continue throughout the planning process to
ensure the commander has the best information
on the supportability of the operation
• Staff estimates are a comprehensive review that
translate threat/enemy and friendly strengths and
weaknesses into capabilities and estimates of
supportability
• Staff estimates are a repetitive process and are in
a constant state of refinement
Staff Estimate Process
• Staff estimates ensure COAs have all planning in
place prior to COA analysis to facilitate and
maximize the benefits of “Wargaming”
• Staff estimate focus is on the KEY information
that is needed to develop a COA for acceptance
or rejection
Staff Estimates
Step
• Mission Analysis
• COA Development
Staff estimate purpose
• Gathers information for
later use in planning,
identifies any obvious
problems
• Staff elements use
functional area expertise
to ensure COA is fully
fleshed out and has best
probability of success
from functional
perspective
Staff Estimates
Step
• COA Analysis
Staff estimate purpose
• Staff elements adjust
estimates as a result of
information gathered in
“Wargaming”. Staff
elements identify and
address any shortfalls.
Staff elements gather
information on each COA to
make recommendations to
Commander.
Staff Estimates
Step
Staff estimate purpose
• COA
• Staff elements provide an
Comparison/Selection estimate judging validity
(suitable, acceptable,
feasible, distinct) of each
COA, identify shortfalls or
issues, and finally, make a
recommendation to the
CCTF.
Mission Analysis
STAFF
ESTIMATES
MISSION
ANALYSIS
MISSION
ANALYSIS
BRIEF
STRATEGIC
COMMANDER’S
PLANNING
DIRECTIVE
MISSION
STATEMENT
COA Development
STATEMENTS
SKETCHES AND
TASK
ORGANIZATION
STAFF
ESTIMATES
MISSION AND
TASKS
COMMANDERS
GUIDANCE
STAFF
ESTIMATE
UPDATES
COA
DEVELOPMENT
WARNING
ORDER
COA Analysis
ADVANTAGES
AND
DISADVANTAGES
STATEMENTS
SKETCHES AND
TASK
ORGANIZATION
COA
ANALYSIS
WARGAME
RECORD
UPDATED STAFF
ESTIMATES
STAFF
ESTIMATE
UPDATES
COA Selection
STAFF/DEPUTY
COMMANDER, CTF
RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMANDER’S
OWN ANALYSIS
AND
COMPARISON
COA
SELECTION
FINAL DECISION
COA
MODIFICATIONS
CTF
COMMANDER’S
ESTIMATE TO
THE
SUPPORTED
STRATEGIC
COMMANDER
Staff Estimate Submission
• C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7
• Special staff sections
–
–
–
–
–
Staff Judge Advocate (SJA)
Information Operations (IO)
Media Support Staff / PAO
Force Protection
Coalition/Combined Logistics Coordination
Center (CLCC)
– Coalition Coordination Center (CCC)
• Other sections as directed
Staff Estimate In Support of COA
Comparison Format
• Mission: Staff Section Mission as a function of the CTF
mission
• Suitability:
• Acceptability:
• Feasibility:
– Assessment of the Suitability, Acceptability and
Feasibility of the respective COAs. States which COA is
most Suitable, Acceptable or Feasible from the staff
elements’ perspective.
• Concerns/Issues: Staff elements state concerns or issues
with each COA as applicable.
• Shortfalls: The staff section identifies significant shortfalls
that may impact accomplishment or success of each COA.
• Recommended COA: The staff element recommends a
COA based on their perspective with brief reasoning why.
EXAMPLE: AIR CELL ESTIMATES
• Differences in COA Characteristics
– CFACC ashore in COA 1 & 2; afloat in # 2
• Either concept supportable
• Infrastructure already in place on CVBG
• Preponderance of air assets land based
EXAMPLE: AIR CELL ESTIMATES
• Mission Areas
– Air Superiority: 100 sorties/day (s/d)
– Air to Ground (CAS, AI): 300 s/d
– Strat Lift: 5 s/d
Enemy Sortie Capability
– Tac Lift: 32 s/d
– ISR: 
– Air Refueling: 
– CSAR: 
– Airborne C2: 
Estimated 60 per day
(D Day)
Estimated 0 per day
(D+1)
EXAMPLE: AIR CELL ESTIMATES
• Validity Tests
– Suitable 
– Feasible 
Force capability ratios:
An overwhelming air
advantage!
– Acceptable 
– Complete 
• Recommendations
– Tanker/Bomber/Airlift basing at XX,YY,ZZ
– Fighter basing at XX,XX,TT,CC
EXAMPLE: MARITIME STAFF
ESTIMATES
•
•
•
•
•
Mission: COA 1 – Light Footprint
Suitability: Yes. (4.1 of 5)
Feasibility: Yes. (3.9 of 5)
Acceptability: Yes. (4.0 of 5)
Concerns / Issues:
– Consider movement of the ISB from XXXX to XXXX to
reduce inorganic sealift requirement.
– Mines could be an issue.
– Anti-ship Missiles will need to be defended against.
• Shortfalls:
– Small organic lift capability.
• Recommended COA:
– Smallest Naval (warships + contracted lift) footprint –
least exposure to enemy forces
• OVERALL ESTIMATE: (4.2 of 5)
EXAMPLE: C1 STAFF ESTIMATES
COA1
• Mission. LIGHT FOOTPRINT
• Suitable. Yes. Allows for rapid deployment of personnel.
• Feasible. Yes. The required resources to accomplish the
mission are readily available.
• Acceptable. Yes. However, it is the highest risk of personnel
losses due limited forces and offensive capability.
• Concerns/Issues: Casualties may be higher due to lack
overwhelming force
• Shortfalls. Limited FP and ground forces
EXAMPLE: C1 STAFF ESTIMATES
COA2
• Mission. MEDIUM FOOTPRINT
• Suitable. Yes. Allows for rapid deployment with more robust
force.
• Feasible. Yes. The required resources to accomplish the
mission are readily available
• Acceptable. Yes. More forces available which limits risks to
personnel
• Concerns/Issues: More personnel increases the requirement
for more robust FP and intel resources
• Shortfalls. None.
EXAMPLE: C1 STAFF ESTIMATES
COA3
• Mission. HEAVY FOOTPRINT
• Suitable. Yes. However, size of force may be more than what
is required.
• Feasible. Yes. However, it will take longer to deploy all
forces to AO.
• Acceptable. Yes. More FP available for the increase in
personnel
• Concerns/Issues: Heaviest drain on personnel requirements.
• Shortfalls. None
EXAMPLE: C2 STAFF ESTIMATES
COA1/2
•
•
•
•
Suitable - YES
Feasible - YES
Acceptable - YES
Concerns/Issues - WEATHER
TERRAIN
COMM
• Shortfalls - CRYPTOLINGUISTS
TROJAN SPIRIT
PHL MIG ANALYSIS TEAM
J2X
HUMAN EXPLOITATION TEAM
EXAMPLE: C2 STAFF ESTIMATES
COA3
•
•
•
•
Suitable - YES
Feasible - YES
Acceptable - YES
Concerns/Issues - WEATHER
TERRAIN
COMM
• Shortfalls - CRYPTOLINGUISTS
TROJAN SPIRIT
PHL MIG ANALYSIS TEAM
J2X
Example C4 Staff Estimate
Mission: Provide transportation and logistics support for HA operation
in JOA.
- Facilitate transition of logistics to NGO/IO.
Suitability: COA 1 is most suitable because it best meets
commander’s guidance to minimize footprint.
Acceptability: All COAs are equally Acceptable.
Feasibility: COA 1 is most feasible because places less emphasis on
CTF logistics assets.
Concerns/issues: The time required to transition to NGO/IO based
HA support is not fixed. This may lead to extending limited CTF
resources past their maintenance cycle timelines.
Shortfalls: The CTF has only 80% of the anticipated HET support
required for any selected COA
Recommended COA: CTF J4 recommends COA 1 based on current
and anticipated requirements and capabilities.
EXAMPLE: C4 STAFF ESTIMATE
COA1
• Mission: SOF Option – Light Footprint (All SOF forces, USN
forces including MEU(SOC), USAF forces and all AFP forces)
• Suitability: YES, logistics can support the time line.
• Feasibility: YES, resources required are available to
accomplish the mission (HSVs, LCUs, Tactical Airlift, LCACs)
• Acceptability: YES, minimal logistical losses expected
however, will require more time and resources to push
supplies forward.
• Concerns / Issues: Time for establishment of ISB and
forward movement into offensive operations.
• Shortfalls: Limited HNS and inland transportation.
• Recommended COA: No
EXAMPLE: C4 STAFF ESTIMATE
COA 2
• Mission: Medium Footprint (Expeditionary Option), All forces
not to include US Army (Hooaa)
• Suitability: YES, logistics can support the time line.
• Feasibility: YES, organic resources are sufficient for 30 DOS
for US MEB and 3 DOS for RP Forces.
• Acceptability: YES, minimal logistical losses expected
however, will require more time to source transportation
requirements.
• Concerns / Issues: Movement and re-supply of RP Forces to
and throughout the JOA.
• Shortfalls: Limited HNS, inland transportation and lack Level
III care.
• Recommended COA: No
EXAMPLE: C4 STAFF ESTIMATE
COA 3
• Mission: Heavy Footprint, Utilize all forces listed.
• Suitability: YES, logistics can support the time line.
• Feasibility: YES, organic resources are sufficient for 30 DOS
for US Forces and 3 DOS for RP Forces.
• Acceptability: YES, however, it will require extensive HN
infrastructure improvements to flow in personnel.
• Concerns / Issues: Very time consuming.
• Shortfalls: Limited HN APODs, inland transportation and lack
Level III care.
• Recommended COA: COA 3 – best accomplishes mission
EXAMPLE: C5 STAFF ESTIMATE
COA 1/2/3
• Mission:
Conducts the initial planning to Transition to a
Peace Keeping Force, or the Host Nation of Camry
governmental agencies and armed forces.
• Suitability: Yes
• Feasibility: Yes
• Acceptability: Yes
• Concerns / Issues: None
• Shortfalls: None
• Recommendations: None
EXAMPLE : C7 STAFF ESTIMATE
COA 1/2/3
• Mission.
CCATF (or CMOTF)
» Evaluates HNS capabilities, conducts CMO, PRC.
» Be prepared to conduct HA/DR in post hostility phases
• Suitable.
Yes
» CCATF / CMOTF is doctrinally supportable.
» Missions are within scope of CA force Structure
• Feasible.
Yes
» Forces (RC & AC) are available within timeline constraints
• Acceptable. Yes
» Recommend organic forces T/O with habitually assigned services
• Concerns/Issues:
» Takes up to 30 days to mobilize and deploy CA units (RC)
» Minimal staff & troop augmentation during initial phases
• Shortfalls:
• Linguist requirements unknown, CCATF/CCMOTF can assume mission
• COA 2 & 3 transition period too brief for adequate completion of HA/DR
- addressed in COA 2 with extended CA deployments
• Recommended COA:
All supportable
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
Definition
Staff Estimate Objectives
Staff Estimate Process
Staff Estimate Steps
Staff Estimate Submission
Staff Estimate Format
COALITION/COMBINED TASK FORCE
TRAINING
Questions?
MPAT SECRETARIAT
COALITION/COMBINED TASK FORCE
TRAINING
Multinational Force
Staff Estimates
MPAT SECRETARIAT