BA 555 Practical Business Analysis Agenda Linear Programming (LP) Introduction Examples LINDO and Excel-Solver 1 Decision-making under Uncertainty Decision-making under uncertainty entails the selection of a course of action when we do not know with certainty the results that each alternative action will yield. This type of decision problems can be solved by statistical techniques along with good judgment and experience. Example: buying stocks/mutual funds. 2 Decision-making under Certainty Decision-making under certainty entails the selection of a course of action when we know the results that each alternative action will yield. This type of decision problems can be solved by linear/integer programming technique. Example: A company produces two different auto parts A and B. Part A (B) requires 2 (2) hours of grinding and 2 (4) hours of finishing. The company has two grinders and three finishers, each of which works 40 hours per week. Each Part A (B) brings a profit of $3 ($4). How many items of each part should be manufactured per week? 3 Steps in Quantifying and Solving a Decision Problem Under Certainty Formulate a mathematical model: Define decision variables, State an objective, State the constraints. Input the model to a LP/ILP solver, e.g., LINDO or EXCEL Solver. Obtain computer printouts and perform sensitivity analysis. Report optimal strategy. 4 Example 1 (p. 61) A company produces two different auto parts A and B. Part A (B) requires 2 (2) hours of grinding and 2 (4) hours of finishing. The company has two grinders and three finishers, each of which works 40 hours per week. Each Part A (B) brings a profit of $3 ($4). How many items of each part should be manufactured per week? 5 Solving a LP problem: LINDO or EXCEL Solver Install LINDO or EXCEL Solver (do at least one.) LINDO: http://www.lindo.com/. Go to DOWNLOAD HOMEPAGE. On the left-hand-side, chose LINDO FOR WINDOWS (not LINDO API, not LINGO.) Its syntax is given on pp. 78 – 80 of the class packet. EXCEL Solver: Under Tools / Add-Ins. Check the SOLVER ADD-INS box. Click OK. It is supported by the textbook (Chapter 4, pp. 209 – 281) 6 Example 2 Logistics (p.62) Warehouse W1 W2 Requirement Per-Unit Shipping cost Store A Store B Store C $9 $8 $6 $7 $4 $3 140 50 110 Capacity 100 200 300 7 Example 8 Purchasing (p.68) Component 1 2 Capacity 1 $12 $10 600 Supplier 2 $13 $11 1000 3 $14 $10 800 8 Example 3 Media Selection (p.63) The Westchester Chamber of Commerce periodically sponsors public service seminars and programs. Currently, promotional plans are under way for this year’s program. Advertising alternatives include television, radio, and newspaper. Audience estimates, costs and maximum media usage limitations are as shown. Constraint Audience per advertisement Cost per advertisement Maximum media usage Television 100,000 $2,000 10 Radio 18,000 $300 20 Newspaper 40,000 $600 10 To ensure a balanced use of advertising media, radio advertisements must not exceed 50% of the total number of advertisements authorized. In addition, television should account for at least 10% of the total number of advertisements authorized. If the promotional budget is limited to $18,200, how many commercial messages should be run on each medium to maximize total audience contact? Formulate a linear programming model to answer the above question. 9 Example 4 Portfolio Selection (p.64) National Insurance Associates carries an investment portfolio of a variety of stocks, bonds, and other investment alternatives. Currently $200,000 of funds are available and must be considered for new investment opportunities. The four stock options National is considering and the relevant financial data are as follows: Stock Financial Data Price per share Annual rate of return Risk measure per dollar invested A $100 0.12 0.10 B $ 50 0.08 0.07 C $ 80 0.06 0.05 D $ 40 0.10 0.08 Top management has stipulated the following investment guidelines: 1. The annual rate of return for the portfolio must be at least 9%. 2. No one stock can account for more than 50% of the total dollar investment. Formulate a linear programming model that minimizes risk. 10 Example 6 Blending (p.66) Ajax Fuels, Inc., is developing a new additive for airplane fuels. The additive is a mixture of three ingredients: A, B, and C. For proper performance, the total amount of additive (amount of A + amount of B + amount of C) must be at least 10 ounces per gallon of fuel. However, because of safety reasons, the amount of additive must not exceed 15 ounces per gallon of fuel. The mix or blend of the three ingredients is critical. At least 1 ounce of ingredient A must be used for every ounce of ingredient B. The amount of ingredient C must be greater than onehalf the amount of ingredient A. If the costs per ounce for ingredients A, B, and C are $0.10, $0.03, and $0.09, respectively, find the minimum-cost mixture of A, B, and C for each gallon of airplane fuel. 11 Example 5 Production Scheduling (p.65) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Demand 2000 4000 3000 1500 Capacity 4000 3000 2000 4000 Inv. Cost Per unit $250 $250 $300 $300 Prod. Cost Per unit $10,000 $11,000 $12,100 $13,310 Initial inventory = 100 Ending inventory ≥ 500 12 Example 7 Staff Scheduling (p.67) Example 7: Staff Scheduling D. V. Xi = # of officers served in shift i Shift 8 A.M. 1 X1 2 3 4 5 6 X6 Noon X1 X2 Time of Day 8 A.M. Req'd Officers 5 Noon 6 4 P.M. X2 X3 4 P.M. 10 8 P.M. Midnight 4 A.M. X3 X4 X4 X5 X5 X6 8 P.M. Midnight 4 A.M. 7 4 6 13 Variation: Staff Scheduling SHIFT M T W R F 1 X1 X1 X1 X1 X1 X2 X2 X2 X2 X2 X3 X3 X3 X3 X3 X4 X4 X4 X4 X5 X5 X5 A B 16 11 2 3 4 X4 5 X5 X5 6 Req’ 17 13 Different schedules Different benefits Full-time vs. part-time Etc. 15 19 14 SA SU 14 Example 9 Multi-period Financial Planning (p.69) Cash Flow at Time Period # Investment 0 1 2 3 A B C –1 0 –1 0.5 –1 1.2 1 0.5 0 0 1 0 D E –1 0 0 0 0 –1 1.9 1.5 Constraints: Balance cash inflow and cash outflow at all time periods. 15