Around the World
In
45 Minutes
April 2011
Globalization
Manufacturers Experiencing Rising Exports
Export’s Contribution to GDP
IGER.csuci.edu
Why IGER?
Bridge to Pacific Rim
Prepare Our Students
Areas Today
Asia
China
Japan
Budget Deficits
Inflation
Asia
Asia’s Contribution to Global GDP Growth
Soaring Industrial Production in Asia
Investments in Asia
Higher labor Costs in Asia ex Japan
Asia Consumption Accelerating
Asia Inflation
Supply Shortages
Demand Pull
Not Much Slack
Asia Place to
Produce
Invest
Sell
Future
China’s Economy
Share of Global GDP
U.S. Treasury Securities
8% of all
25% of foreign owned
RMB
•Liberalized
•Trades Settled
•World Currency
China
Big Consumer
China’s Love Affair with Cars
Buy a Car and Buy a Flat
China’s Shrinking Trade Surplus
House Prices for Asian Cities
Gov’t Policies
Purchase Restrictions
Property Taxes
Higher Interest Rates
Five-year Plan
Happy China
China Inflation
Social/ Political
Conclusion
Growth Cool Down
Inflation Ease
Control Property Prices
Gradual Yuan Appr.
Japan Unemployment Rate
Japan Exports by Region
Japan: Consumer Price Index
Global Impact
•Supply Chain
•Financial Market
•
Repatriate
•
Yen Appreciation
•
Interest Rates
Supply-chain Impact
Supply Chain
•35% Boeing 787
•20% Semiconductors
•40% Electronic Comp
•10% Laptop Batteries
•25% NAND Flash chip
Ships Contaminated by Radiation
Sig Turning Point
•1855
Tokukawa
•1923
Nationalism
•1945
Superpower
•2011
?
Small Global Impact
Japan
Video
Risk for Us
Not in Asia
Locally
Businesses: Asia
Labor Force: Train
Who Benefits?
•Commodities Producers
•High End Consumer Goods
•Machineries
Big Ten in 2030
•China
•U.S.A
•Japan
•Germany
•U.K.
•
•
•
•
•
Brazil
Mexico
France
Canada
Korea
Republican Proposal
Interest Costs
What to Do?
Adult Conversation
•Serious Debate
•Political Climate
•Grand Bargain
Entitlement Spending
U.S. Defense Spending
Higher Taxes
Food Inflation
Up 80% y/y
Protests in N. Africa
China 25% of U.S. Soy
Ethanol 40% of Corn
Inflation Risks
Inflation Expectations
Wage Increases
Inflation Expectations
Why No Deflation
Inflation Expectations
Wage Rigidities
Import Prices
Monetary Policy
No Deflation
Inflation Eventually
Cost Push
Excess Cap. Diminishes
Taxes
Fees
Ventura County
April 2011
IGER.csuci.edu
DrSohn.com
(not Dr.Sohn.com)