- Homes on the Range Range-wide assessment of priority areas for the conservation of prairie dog
ecosystems: integrating habitat suitability, land use, and climate change
Ana Davidson1, David J. Augustine3, Michael Menefee4, Dave Anderson4,
Volker Radeloff5, Lindsey Sterling Krank6
1Department of
Wildlife, Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA
Research Service, Fort Collins, CO
3Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
4Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI
5Prairie Dog Coalition, Boulder, CO
2USDA-Agricultural
Our Team: Agency, NGO, University Partnership
Dr. Ana Davidson (Humboldt State University)
Dr. David Augustine (USDA-ARS)
Michael Menefee
Dave Anderson
(Colorado Natural Heritage Program)
Dr. Volker Radeloff (University of Madison-Wisconsin)
Lindsey Sterling Krank (Prairie Dog Coalition, PDC)
And Coalition members, including
Ghia Zalewa (PDC), Steve Forrest
& Jonathan Proctor (Defenders of Wildlife), and Kristy Bly (WWF)
History
Update Homes on the Range 2005  Original Data Request in 2013 After discussion and
research  Scientific Credibility  Better strategy- Larger landscape approach, collaborative
 Evolution
RANGEWISE ASSESSMENT OF PRIORITY AREAS FOR THE CONSERVATION OF PRAIRIE DOG
ECOSYSTEMS: INTEGRATING HABITAT SUITABILITY, LAND USE PATTERNS AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
• Follow up to Bob’s Luce’s 2004
Report. We recognize the states
helped build that report and
ultimately we’d have a much
better result if we could get your
input and participation on this
report too.
• Same approach as Luce; but with
updated methodology.
Homes on the Range addresses management needs
• Eco-regional landscape approach
• Uses keystone species
• Input from land & wildlife managers at
the planning, review, and implementation phases
• Goes beyond SWAP planning
• Direct conservation actions that you want to implement
• Pro-active planning tool to get ahead of species listing
Ex: Arctic Grayling in MT
- Success story because Conservation planning and implementation got ahead
of regulations.
• Current summaries on conservation actions from the Luce Report
• State of the art ensemble forecast modeling (landuse and climate change)
• Long-term planning & decision support tool
Prairie dogs are central to Homes on the Range because they are
keystone species of North America’s central grasslands
Because prairie dogs function as
ecosystem engineers and keystone
species in North America’s
grasslands, their conservation and
management lies at the core of many
landscape-level conservation efforts
Bergstrom et al., 2013, Conservation Letters
Conservation of prairie dogs has implications for efforts to conserve
species that use alternative habitats
Spatial optimization of conservation efforts will be essential where range of prairie dog
dependent species overlap with their associate species
Overall Goals:
1) Generate models and map products that inform
managers on key areas of conservation importance for
all 5 prairie dog species and associated biodiversity,
across North America’s central and western grasslands.
• Models will provide land managers throughout
the 5 species range with a valuable decision
support tool for conservation and
management.
2) This effort will be followed by community outreach
to communicate results, and working collaboratively
with land managers and NGOs to implement the onthe-ground conservation actions
Geographic distribution of the five prairie dog species
Methods: Identifying suitable landscapes
Our process for identifying priority
areas will involve 3 steps:
1) Identify a large pool of suitable
landscapes that could contribute to
future prairie dog conservation
a. Compile existing data from
state, federal and other land
managers on current
status/distribution of prairie
dogs and associated species.
b. Compile GIS layers on land
ownership, land use/land cover
c. Use (a) and (b) combined with
analyses of existing distribution
of habitat patch sizes and
connectivity to identify
landscapes for more detailed
analyses of habitat suitability.
Methods: Identifying suitable landscapes
Our process for identifying priority
areas will involve 4 steps:
1) Identify a large pool of suitable
landscapes that could contribute to
future prairie dog conservation
a. Compile existing data from
state, federal and other
agencies on current
status/distribution of prairie
dogs and associated species
b. Compile GIS layers on land
ownership, land use/cover
c. Use (a) and (b) combined with
analyses of existing distribution
of habitat patch sizes and
connectivity to identify
landscapes for more detailed
analyses of habitat suitability.
Need Agency/Expert input
on how to weight these factors
when developing the pool of
landscapes to analyze
Methods: Habitat Suitability Modelling
Our process for identifying priority
areas will involve 4 steps:
1) Identify a large pool of suitable
landscapes that could contribute to
future prairie dog conservation
2) Generating habitat suitability
models within these landscapes
a. using state-of-the-art ensemble
forecasting
b. prairie dog occurrence data and
environmental variables
c. Once the models are
parameterized with current
climate, we will generate HSMs
based on projected climate in
2080
Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Habitat Suitability Model GPLCC
Methods: Identifying priority areas
Our process for identifying priority
areas will involve 4 steps:
1) Identify a large pool of suitable
landscapes that could contribute to
future prairie dog conservation
2) Generating habitat suitability
models within these landscapes
a. using state-of-the-art ensemble
forecasting
b. prairie dog occurrence data and
environmental variables
c. Once the models are
parameterized with current
climate, we will generate HSMs
based on projected climate in
2080
Online Portal for HOTR Products: Making Reports, Data and Maps Easily
Accessible for Researchers and Land Managers
Using Prairie Dog Data in Management
NRCS Black-footed ferret Initiative
http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/mt/programs/fina
ncial/eqip/?cid=stelprdb1253844
Methods: Identify priority areas under landuse & climate change
Our process for identifying priority
areas will involve 4 steps:
1) Identifying suitable landscapes
2) Generating habitat suitability models
within these landscapes
3) Incorporate landuse and climate
change predictions into habitat
suitability models (climate envelope
approaches)
Climate Change
• Prairie dogs in the lower elevation and
southern part of their range are threatened
by drought
• Consistent with long-term prairie dog
population declines in the American
Southwest and northern Mexico, due to
drought
• Stresses by climate will increase with
continued climate warming
• Base our models on projected climate in
2080
Davidson et al., 2014, JWM
Methods: Priority area rankings
Our process for identifying priority
areas will involve 4 steps:
1) Identifying suitable landscapes
2) Generating habitat suitability models
within these landscapes
3) Incorporate climate change
predictions into habitat suitability
models (climate envelope
approaches)
4. Identifying current & future priority
areas within predicted suitable habitat
for each prairie dog species
a. Quantification of top priority areas
b. Expert input
c. Habitat connectivity
Methods: Ground-truthing, expert review, and priority area selection
1.
Priority area model selection will be informed and
reviewed by land managers and other regional experts
1.
2.
3.
Attend State agency prairie dog working groups
Contact key individuals directly
Provide template maps using LandScope
(http://www.landscope.org/)
2.
Model validation will be assessed with ground-truthing by
experts
3.
Hold workshops on modeling results. Request feedback on
draft results via meetings or workshops with land
managers, agency representatives and other stakeholders
Outreach & Implementation
We will partner with land managers and landowners to implement
priority area conservation.
1. Fundraising for on-the-ground conservation implementation
2. Engaging with local communities through field projects, education, and
community outreach
LCC Focal Areas
Desert
Geographic Area
LCC Steering Committees
Products Maybe remove this slide?
A report titled, “Homes on the range: top priority areas for prairie
dog ecosystem conservation”, for NGO’s and agencies to use for
guiding their conservation and management efforts.
And…
1. HSMs and GIS data layers of colonies and
priority areas for NGO’s and agencies
2. Private land areas that have the greatest
leverage for land exchanges and purchase
3. Implementing the priority areas conservation
on-the-ground
4. Publishing a peer-reviewed scientific paper on
the work.
Timetable Keep this slide?
Timetable:
Date
Milestone
November 1, 2014
Project Start Date
January 1, 2014
Prairie dog Colony Dataset Compiled
GIS Technician Hired
Fall -Winter 2014
DEMs, NCDC data, SSURGO databases compiled for all study areas
Soil attribute layers, TWI/TRI layers, and precipitation maps created
Geodatabase established with all layers linked in common datum for
each site
Spring 2015
Ensemble habitat suitability modelling
Spring 2015
Priority area selection modelling
Summer 2015
Ground-truthing and expert review
Fall 2015
Refine and finalize priority area selections
Winter 2015-2016
Write Homes on the Range report
Spring-summer 2016
Conduct outreach & make data layers available to NGOs and agencies
Summer-fall 2016
Write scientific publication on results
Budget
BUDGET: $250,000
• GIS specialist
• Roles of Menefee, Sterling-Krank, and Davidson
• Travel
Questions?
Variables