Causation
Reasoning about how and why things happen
The Main Issue in
Causal Reasoning:
Evaluation of a Causal Claim
The Main Issue in
Causal Reasoning:
Evaluation of a Causal Claim
• May be intended as a causal
hypothesis
If I persistently and obnoxiously get in someone's
face, that will force them to take my demands
seriously.
The Main Issue in
Causal Reasoning:
Evaluation of a Causal Claim
• May be intended as a causal
hypothesis
• May be intended as a conclusion
based on observation or inductive
inference
Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts
absolutely.
Reasoning patterns that work
Reasoning patterns that work

Relevant difference reasoning
If an effect is present in one situation but not present in
other similar situations, consider relevant differences as
causes of the effect. Screen for alternative causes.
Reasoning patterns that work

Relevant difference reasoning
If an effect is present in one situation but not present in
other similar situations, consider relevant differences as
causes of the effect. Screen for alternative causes.

Common thread reasoning
If an effect is present in multiple situations, consider as
a cause any feature that is present whenever the effect
is present. Consider alternative causes.
Reasoning errors and patterns
that don’t work well enough
Reasoning errors and patterns
that don’t work well enough

Post hoc fallacy (post hoc ergo propter hoc)
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before
another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that
the earlier event caused the later event
Reasoning errors and patterns
that don’t work well enough

Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before
another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that
the earlier event caused the later event

Overlooking a common thread or cause
Reasoning errors and patterns
that don’t work well enough

Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before
another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that
the earlier event caused the later event


Overlooking a common thread or cause
Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences
Reasoning errors and patterns
that don’t work well enough

Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before
another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that
the earlier event caused the later event



Overlooking a common thread or cause
Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences
Overlooking possibility of reversed causation
Reasoning errors and patterns
that don’t work well enough

Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before
another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that
the earlier event caused the later event

Overlooking a common thread or cause
 Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences
 Overlooking possibility of reversed causation
 Asserting a wrong common cause
Reasoning errors and patterns
that don’t work well enough

Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before
another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that
the earlier event caused the later event

Overlooking a common thread or cause
 Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences
 Overlooking possibility of reversed causation
 Asserting a wrong common cause
 Appealing to anecdotal evidence
Problems in causal reasoning
Problems in causal reasoning

Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates
the effect, typically as a definition or description
Example: The explosion was caused by a rapid release
of energy
Problems in causal reasoning

Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates
the effect, typically as a definition or description

Testability issues
Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately
difficult or impossible to falsify
Example (from the not-too-distant past): The illness is
caused by tiny things that can't be seen.
Note that this statement of cause turned out to be right
in some cases, but one would need to do some good
inductive reasoning to justify this conclusion.
Problems in causal reasoning

Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates
the effect, typically as a definition or description

Testability issues
Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately
difficult or impossible to falsify

Specificity issues
Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately
vague, especially from use of undefined terms
Example: The illness is caused by a pathogenic agent.
Problems in causal reasoning

Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates
the effect, typically as a definition or description

Testability issues
Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately
difficult or impossible to falsify

Specificity issues
Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately
vague, especially from use of undefined terms

Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions
Problems in causal reasoning

Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates
the effect, typically as a definition or description

Testability issues
Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately
difficult or impossible to falsify

Specificity issues
Occur when the statement of cause is inappropriately
vague, especially from use of undefined terms


Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions
Conflict with well-established theory
Critical thinking theory places the burden of proof on
new or unusual ideas
Causal reasoning alternatives

Materialism
All events have at least one physical/material cause and
no non-material cause

Single causation
Every effect has one and only one unique cause

Dependent co-arising (Buddhist)
At least two entities must participate in the causation of
any phenomenon, which is made possible by the natures
of the entities involved

Theory of changes (Chinese)
Situations have essential structures that tend to change
in patterned ways