An Overview of Macroeconomic
Developments in Turkey
with special reference to the AK-Party Era (2002-04)
Aykut Kibritçioğlu
Associate Professor of Economics
Ankara University, Turkey
Tel.: (+90-312) 319 77 20, ext. 340
Fax: (+90-312) 319 77 36
E-Mail: kibritci@politics.ankara.edu.tr
Homepage: http://dialup.ankara.edu.tr/~kibritci/wiiw.html
Vienna, 1-15 November 2004
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(1/79)
Outline of the Presentation
 General Facts and Figures, 1970-2004
 Political Climate, 1969-2004
 Market for Goods: Inflation & Disinflation
 Market for Goods: Production & Productivity
 Labor Market: Employment & Real Wages
 Foreign Exchange Market: Exchange Rates, and
Currency Substitution
 Balance of Payments and External Debts
 Public Sector: Deficits and Debts
 Financial Sector
 Statistical Sources
 Appendix: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
for Turkey (1970-2003)
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(2/79)
General
Facts and Figures,
1970-2004
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(3/79)
The 1980-1989 Transformation
1978 - 1980: Balance-of-payments crisis,
productivity slowdown and accelerating inflation
January 1980: Announcement of a substantial
stabilization and structural adjustment program in
order to gradually liberalize the economy
1980 - 1982: Domestic financial liberalization
May 1981: Abandonment of the fixed exchange-rate
regime
June 1984 - August 1989: Capital account
liberalization and convertibility of the Turkish lira
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(4/79)
Post-1989 Macroeconomic Developments
December 1993 - April 1994: A major currency crisis
and acceleration in the inflation
August 1999: Negative macroeconomic impacts of
the Marmara earthquake
December 1999: Announcement of an exchangerate-based stabilization program for 2000-2002
November 2000 & February 2001: Two successive
banking and currency crises and political instability
in Turkey
May 2001: Announcement of the new economic
program
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(5/79)
Selected Macroeconomic Indicators [1]
annual
period
averages
Change in
Consumer
Real GDP Nominal
Price
TL/US$
Growth
Inflation
Exchange
(%)
(%)
Rate (%)
Foreign
JP Morgan's Absolute Change
Change in
Exchange
in Central Bank's
Real
Average
Deposits to
Gross Foreign
Effective
Crude Oil
Money
Exchange
Exchange
Import
Supply M2
Reserves (millions
Rate
Price (%)
(%)
of USD)
(1990=100)
1970-1979
23.3
4.7
14.0
151.4
53
30.5
0.0
1980
110.2
- 2.4
144.3
87.7
419
110.5
0.0
1981-1988
42.4
5.4
44.9
113.4
154
- 8.3
12.8
1989-1993
65.1
4.9
51.4
105.6
781
2.8
46.0
1994
106.3
- 5.5
169.9
137.1
899
- 2.1
94.9
1995-1999
80.7
4.0
70.2
129.9
3 213
5.3
90.5
2000-2001
54.7
- 0.1
72.5
121.4
- 2 195
21.5
103.6
2002-2003
35.1
6.9
11.0
113.1
7 414
8.8
103.5
1970-2003
49.9
4.1
46.7
126.2
985
13.2
38.1
Source: State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT), State Planning
Organization (SPO), the IMF and J.P.Morgan; Kibritçioğlu’s calculations.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
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Selected Macroeconomic Indicators [2]
annual
period
averages
Istanbul
Change in
Capacity
Stock
Public Sector
Official
Nominal
Utilization in Exchange's
Borrowing UnemployMoney
the Manufac- Composite
Requirement ment Rate
Supply M2
turing Industry 100 Index in
to GDP (%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
USD
(1986=1.0)
1970-1979
31.4
6.1
1980
74.5
8.9
1981-1988
53.3
1989-1993
Actual
Current Short-Term
Foreign
Account
Capital
Direct
Balance
Inflow
Investment
(millions (millions of
Inflow
of USD)
USD)
(millions of
USD)
56.9
- 986
97
8.3
55.2
- 3 408
- 2
35
4.5
7.9
67.8
2.4
- 992
53
125
59.9
9.2
8.1
75.6
5.2
- 1 769
757
727
1994
123.2
7.9
8.1
72.9
4.2
2 631
- 5 190
608
1995-1999
104.7
9.4
6.8
77.0
6.7
- 1 355
1 726
827
2000-2001
45.2
14.4
7.5
73.4
9.2
- 3 215
- 3 561
2 124
2002-2003
32.3
10.6
10.5
76.9
4.6
- 4 165
1 495
440
1970-2003
56.4
7.8
7.9
71.6
5.5
- 1 440
138
606
Source: State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT), State Planning
Organization (SPO), the IMF and J.P.Morgan; Kibritçioğlu’s calculations.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
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Political Climate,
1969-2004
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
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Governments & Political Instability
in Turkey, 1969-2004
The Frequency of General Elections and Government Changes in Turkey (Jan. 1969 - Dec. 2004)
75
70
65
60
55
Government Changes (28 times)
ICRG's Political Risk Index for Turkey
2003.01
2004.01
2002.01
2000.01
2001.01
1999.01
1997.01
1998.01
1995.01
1996.01
1994.01
1992.01
1993.01
1990.01
1991.01
1989.01
1987.01
1988.01
1985.01
1986.01
1984.01
1982.01
1983.01
1981.01
1979.01
1980.01
1977.01
1978.01
1976.01
1974.01
1975.01
1972.01
1973.01
1971.01
1969.01
1970.01
50
45
40
35
General Elections (9 times)
 1969-2004 = 36 years = 432 months
 Average period between two general elections = 48 months = 4
years
 Average life of governments = 15.4 months = 1.3 years
(ICRG=International Country Risk Guide; a declining PR index indicates an increase in the political risk.)
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
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Selected Events Marked as Black
Columns in the Following Figures are:
 January 1999:
4. Ecevit-Government starts...
 May 1999:
5. Ecevit-Government starts...
 January 2000:
2000-2003 Program introduced...
 November 2000 and February 2001:
Financial crisis occurred...
 November 2002:
General elections & AK-Party-Government starts...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(10/79)
Market for Goods:
Inflation & Disinflation
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(11/79)
Global Inflation & Disinflation and Turkey
100000.0
Annual Consumer
Price Inflation
(%, log scale)
Maximum
Inflation Rate
(worldwide)
10000.0
Turkey
1000.0
Developing
Countries
100.0
World Average
10.0
United States
1.0
Austria
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
0.1
 In the late 1990s, Turkey was not able to join the global
disinflation process observed explicitly...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(12/79)
Relative Inflation Rates: Turkey's CPI Inflation vs. Foreign CPI Inflation
65
60
55
50
Turkey /
Industrial
Countries
45
40
Turkey / World
Average
35
30
Turkey /
Middle East
25
20
15
Turkey /
Developing
Countries
10
5
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
0
 In terms of the length of the period, Turkish high-inflation
experience is “unique” in the world...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(13/79)
Annual & Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (%, Feb.1969-Sep.2004)
145
135
125
annual
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25
15
monthly
5
1969.01
1970.01
1971.01
1972.01
1973.01
1974.01
1975.01
1976.01
1977.01
1978.01
1979.01
1980.01
1981.01
1982.01
1983.01
1984.01
1985.01
1986.01
1987.01
1988.01
1989.01
1990.01
1991.01
1992.01
1993.01
1994.01
1995.01
1996.01
1997.01
1998.01
1999.01
2000.01
2001.01
2002.01
2003.01
2004.01
-5
 Turkey suffered from high and persistent inflation since
more than three decades. But, finally, it’s declining now...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(14/79)
Annual Changes in Wholesale and Consumer Price Indices (SIS, percent)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
11.9
10
WPI
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
Selected Events
2004.10
7.5
0
CPI
 Annual inflation rates fell below 15 percent as end of
September 2004. (Official target for Dec. 2004: 12 percent)
 Inflationary expectations in the country are also changing
in a positive direction.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(15/79)
Market for Goods:
Production & Productivity
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(16/79)
Indicators of Long-Run Growth in Turkey
30
8000
7414
Growth in Real GDP ($) Per Capita, %
25
Population Growth, %
7000
Real GDP (TL) Growth, %
20
Real GDP ($) per Capita [right axis]
6000
15
5000
10
4000
5
2.9
1.5
3000
0
2000
-5
1000
-10
340
PWT6.1
0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
-15
 Turkey’s economic growth performance was highly volatile.
 Real GDP per capita rose 22 times between 1950 and 2000.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(17/79)
Industrial Production Index (1980=100)
750
700
650
South Korea
600
Turkey
550
Israel
500
USA
450
Cyprus
400
Hungary
350
Japan
300
UK
250
Industrial Countries
200
Germany
150
Greece
100
Romania
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
50
 Turkish industrial sector demonstrated a remarkable growth
performance since 1980.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(18/79)
GDP per capita ($): Turkey & Selected Countries
31000
USA
Japan
26000
Germany
UK
21000
Israel
Cyprus
16000
South Korea
Greece
11000
Hungary
Turkey
Romania
6000
PWT6.1
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1000
 In an international context, however, Turkey’s economic
growth performance is relatively poor.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(19/79)
Annual Real GDP Growth (SIS, percent)
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
2002Q4
2002Q3
2002Q2
2002Q1
2001Q4
2001Q3
2001Q2
2001Q1
2000Q4
2000Q3
2000Q2
2000Q1
1999Q4
1999Q3
1999Q2
1999Q1
1998Q4
1998Q3
1998Q2
1998Q1
13.4
 In recent years, growth rate of the real GDP has
significantly fluctuated.
 The Turkish real sector is recovering from the 2000-2001
crisis, which is one of the four deepest economic crises
after 1950.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(20/79)
Industrial Production Index (SIS, 1997=100)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
m ov.ave.
 During the AK-Party era, the industrial production index
increased again up to the pre-crisis level.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(21/79)
Annual Increases in the Industrial Production Index (SIS, %)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
m ov.ave.
 Annual increases in the industrial production index sharply
fluctuate around an average annual growth of 10 percent,
during the AK-Party era.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(22/79)
Capacity Utilization Ratio in Manufacturing Industry (SIS, %)
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
2004.09
84.8
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
 Capacity utilization ratio in manufacturing industry also
increased up to the pre-crisis level in recent months.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(23/79)
Ratio of the Number of New Firms to the Number of Closed Firms (SIS, %)
30
25
20
15
10
mov.ave.
5
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
0
 The monthly ratio of the number of new firms established
to the number of the closed ones was fluctuating around 16
within the last two years.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(24/79)
Partial Productivity per Worker in Manufacturing Industry (1997=100)
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
2002Q4
2002Q3
2002Q2
2002Q1
2001Q4
2001Q3
2001Q2
2001Q1
2000Q4
2000Q3
2000Q2
2000Q1
1999Q4
1999Q3
1999Q2
1999Q1
1998Q4
1998Q3
1998Q2
1998Q1
90
 The manufactuing industry exhibits a remarkable increase
in labor productivity.
 The reasons for that are still not investigated by economists
sufficiently.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(25/79)
Labor Market:
Employment &
Real Wages
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(26/79)
Employment Index for the Manufacturing Industry (1997=100)
105
100
95
90
mov.ave.
85
80
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
2002Q4
2002Q3
2002Q2
2002Q1
2001Q4
2001Q3
2001Q2
2001Q1
2000Q4
2000Q3
2000Q2
2000Q1
1999Q4
1999Q3
1999Q2
1999Q1
1998Q4
1998Q3
1998Q2
1998Q1
75
 The increases in manufacturing production are not fully
accommodated by increases in employment.
 Turkey has still to solve the unemployment problem that
has been deepened after the 2000-2001 financial crisis.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(27/79)
Real-Wage per Hour-Worked in Manufacturing Industry (1997=100)
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
2002Q4
2002Q3
2002Q2
2002Q1
2001Q4
2001Q3
2001Q2
2001Q1
2000Q4
2000Q3
2000Q2
2000Q1
1999Q4
1999Q3
1999Q2
1999Q1
1998Q4
1998Q3
1998Q2
1998Q1
85
80
 Real wages in manufacturing industry declined significantly
following the 2000-2001 crisis.
 They shrinked about 18 percent during the crisis.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(28/79)
Foreign Exchange
Market:
Exchange Rates, and
Currency Substitution
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(29/79)
“Black-Market” Exchange Rates (BMER) vs. Official Exchange Rates (OER)
and Annual Increases in OER (1950-2004)
9
BMER / OER (left axis)
Annual Increases in OER (right axis)
245
8
210
7
175
6
04.01
02.01
00.01
98.01
96.01
94.01
92.01
90.01
88.01
86.01
84.01
82.01
80.01
78.01
76.01
74.01
72.01
-35
70.01
0
68.01
0
66.01
1
64.01
35
62.01
2
60.01
70
58.01
3
56.01
105
54.01
4
52.01
140
50.01
5
 Since May 1981, Turkey has a relatively flexible exchange rate system.
This gradually removed the “black-market” for FX in Turkey.
 In 2000, the monthly growth rates of nominal exchange rates were predetermined to gradually disinflate the economy.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(30/79)
Nominal Exchane Rates (TL/USD and TL/Euro)
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
Selected Events
TL/USD Exchange Rate
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
0
TL/Euro Exchange Rate
 During the last 27 months, nominal exchange rates seems to
float around a specific level, without showing any tendency
towards a sharp increase.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(31/79)
Annual Changes in Nominal Exchange Rates (percent)
150
135
120
105
90
75
60
45
30
9.9
15
0
5.4
-15
Selected Events
TL/USD Exchange Rate
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
-30
TL/Euro Exchange Rate
 Note that annual growth rate of nominal USD exchange
rates turned to negative values between May 2003 and
April 2004.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(32/79)
Central Bank's Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves (billion USD)
36
33
33.7
30
27
24
October 2000 level
21
18
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
15
 Following the 2000-2001 crisis, gross FX reserves of the
Turkish Central Bank increased significantly.
 They are now about 38 percent higher than the level of
reserves prior to the crisis.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(33/79)
Foreign Exchange Market Pressure and Banking Sector Fragility
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Selected Events
Foreign Exchange Market Pressure Index
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
-4.0
Banking Sector Fragility Index
 The so-called foreign exchange market pressure index does
not send any signs of an increase in pressure in the market,
while it is observed that banking sector is acting more and
more risky again.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(34/79)
CPI-Based Real Effective Exchange Rates (CBRT, 1995=100)
increases: real depreciation
decreases: real appreciation
inverse
of the CBRT's
original index
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
m ov.ave.
1998.01
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
 The real appreciation of the Turkish lira against major
foreign currencies following the 2000-2001 crisis seems to
have stopped within the last 12 months.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(35/79)
Currency Substitution in Turkey (1985-2004)
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1985
1986
FX Deposits to M2
0.00
 High inflation and low credibility of government policies in the 1990s
created a strong currency substitution. But it’s changing now...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(36/79)
Two Indicators of Currency Substitution in Turkey (% )
150
130
110
90
70
50
Selected Events
Foreign Exchange Deposits / TL-denominated Deposits
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
30
(M2Y - M2) / M2
 There is a tendency towards reverse currency substitution during
the AK-Party era.
 Government’s success in disinflating the economy and its
increasing credibility may significantly be contributing to this
process.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(37/79)
Balance of Payments
and External Debts
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(38/79)
History of Taxation in Turkish International Trade in Goods (1925-2002)
90
80
60
50
40
30
20
Uruguay (1986-1993)
GATT (1947)
70
Customs Union with the EU (1996)
100
Tokyo (1979)
Kennedy (1967)
110
10
0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
Custom Duties / Imports (%)
Taxes on Foreign Trade / Imports (%)
 Foreign trade liberalization in Turkey is closely associated to
Turkey’s relations to the GATT/WTO and the European Union
(EU).
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(39/79)
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1969-1980: import-substituion era
1979-1980: real-sector and balance-of-payments crises
1980-1984: current-account liberalization and exports promotion
May 1981: abondonment of fixed exchange rates
1989: capital-account liberalization
1994: major currency crisis
2000-2001: triple crises (banking, currency & real-sector)
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0.00
Bilateral (TL/USD) Real Exchange Rates (1995=1.0)
Official Exchange Rates / Black-Market Exchange Rates
Exports-to-Imports Ratio in Manufacturing
Import Penetration Ratio
Tax-Rebate Ratio for Exports
Taxes on Foreign-Trade to Imports Ratio
Customs-Duties to Imports Ratio
 Foreign trade liberalization in the 1980s positively affected
Turkey’s trade in goods with the rest of the world.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(40/79)
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Exports to Imports Ratio in Turkey (1923-2003, annual)
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(41/79)
Exports to Imports Ratio in Turkey (1950-2004, monthly)
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
mov.ave.
0.40
0.20
04.01
02.01
00.01
98.01
96.01
94.01
92.01
90.01
88.01
86.01
84.01
82.01
80.01
78.01
76.01
74.01
72.01
70.01
68.01
66.01
64.01
62.01
60.01
58.01
56.01
54.01
52.01
50.01
0.00
 The share of the agricultural products on exports decreased in Turkey,
and the volatility of exports to imports ratio in Turkey declined since
early 1980s.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(42/79)
Exports to Imports Ratio (SIS, percent, as of 12-monthly totals)
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
m anufacturing
73.6
total
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
64.4
 The developments in the exports to imports ratio show that
foreign trade deficits are increasing since early 2002.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(43/79)
Export and Import Price Indices
(1982=100, monthly averages)
130
120
110
100
90
80
External Terms of Trade
Export Price Index
Import Price Index
2004.12
2003.12
2002.12
2001.12
2000.12
1999.12
1998.12
1997.12
1996.12
1995.12
1994.12
1993.12
1992.12
1991.12
1990.12
1989.12
1988.12
1987.12
1986.12
1985.12
1984.12
1983.12
1982.12
70
1982=100
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(44/79)
Goods Composition of Turkish Exports and Imports
(1969-2003, ISIC, percent)
1.00
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.80
0.80
Manufacturing
0.70
0.30
0.30
Agriculture
0.20
Exports
2001
2003
1997
1999
1991
1993
1995
1987
1989
1983
1985
0.00
1977
1979
1981
0.00
1973
1975
0.10
1969
1971
0.10
Mining &
Quarrying
Agriculture
1973
1975
0.20
2001
2003
0.40
1997
1999
0.40
1993
1995
0.50
1989
1991
0.50
Manufacturing
1985
1987
0.60
1981
1983
0.60
1977
1979
Mining &
Quarrying
1969
1971
0.70
Imports
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(45/79)
Goods Composition of Turkish Exports and Imports
(1969-2003, BEC, percent)
Inv.G.
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.70
Intermediate Goods
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.20
Consumption Goods
0.10
0.00
0.00
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Intermediate Goods
0.20
0.10
Exports
Investment Goods
Consumption Goods
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
1.00
Imports
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(46/79)
Country Composition of Turkish Exports (1980-2003, percent)
100
90
80
70
Other Countries
Developing Western Hemisphere
60
Developing Middle East
Developing Europe
50
Developing Asia
Developing Africa
40
EU15
30
Industrial Countries (excl. EU15)
20
10
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(47/79)
Country Composition of Turkish Imports (1980-2003, percent)
100
90
80
70
Other Countries
Developing Western Hemisphere
60
Developing Middle East
50
Developing Europe
Developing Asia
40
Developing Africa
EU15
30
Industrial Countries (excl. EU15)
20
10
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(48/79)
Current Account Balance: Selected Indicators (SIS, billion USD, monthly)
1.30
0.65
0.00
-0.65
-1.30
-1.95
Selected Events
Net Exports of Goods (billion TL)
Net Exports of Goods and Services (billion TL)
Current Account Balance (billion TL)
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
-2.60
 The increasing deficit in net exports of goods is eliminated
by an increasing surplus in net exports of services, and
hence the CAB deficits are declining since March 2004.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(49/79)
Current Account Balance: Selected Indicators (SIS, billion USD, cumulative)
8
4
0
-4
-8
-9.8
-12
-12.3
-16
-21.9
-20
Selected Events
Net Exports of Goods (billion TL)
Net Exports of Goods and Services (billion TL)
Current Account Balance (billion TL)
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
-24
 However, the cumulative BoP data shows that the recent
improvements have not fully translated into the annual data yet.
 In 2003, the CAB/GDP ratio amounted to -2.8%. However, it will
possibly climb to -4% in 2004.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(50/79)
Erratic Nature of Net Short-Term Capital Inflows
(billion USD, annual data)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-10
-12
capital
account
liberalization
2000-01
crisis
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-8
1994
crisis
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(51/79)
Net Short-Term Capital Inflows (billion USD)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
monthly
2004.01
2003.01
2002.01
2001.01
2000.01
1999.01
1998.01
1997.01
1996.01
1995.01
1994.01
1993.01
1992.01
1991.01
1990.01
1989.01
1988.01
1987.01
1986.01
capital
account
liberalization
12-monthly
 One indication that Turkey’s policies are on the right track would
be a return to positive short-term inflows at a steady and
sustainable level. But a substantial increase in longer term capital
inflows is not observed in Turkey.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(52/79)
Net Short-Term Capital Inflows (billion USD)
6
5.4
5.4
3
2.6
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-12.3
Selected Events
Monthly
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
-15
12-monthly
 Short-term capital outflows that rose following the 2000-2001
financial crisis declined significantly after January 2002.
 Net short-term capital inflows (in terms of cummulative data) are
positive in 2004.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(53/79)
Current Account Balance to GDP & Net Short-Term Capital Inflows to GDP (%)
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
CAB to GDP
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
capital
account
liberalization
1985
1984
1983
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
-9
1982
-8
1981
current
account
liberalization
-7
Net Short-Term Capital Inflows to GDP
 The effects of both current and capital account liberalizations
realized in the 1980s can roughly be followed by the fluctuations
in the CAB to GDP and net short term capital inflows to GDP
ratios.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(54/79)
Current Account Balance to Output & Net Short-Term Capital Inflows to Output
(January 1999 = 1.0; as of 12-monthly cummulatives)
10
5
2.1
1.0
0
-5
-2.8
-10
-15
-20
Selected Events
Current Account Balance to Output
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
-25
Net Short-Term Capital Inflows to Output
 The monthly data shows that the volatility of the CAB to nominal
industrial output is significantly lower than that of the net shortterm capital inflows to output ratio.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(55/79)
“Hot Money” Mechanism in Turkey
Political Process
It‘s not only “capital
account liberalization”
itself which caused
macroeconomic
problems in Turkey
after 1989.
(Voters, Political Parties & Bureaucrats)
High Public Sector Deficits
High Real International
Interest Rate Differential
high inflation
upward
pressure on
FX rates
Decreasing or Stable
Nominal Exchange Rates
interest rate parity
Net Short-Term
Capital Inflows from Abroad
...
But everything changes,
if there is a CC at the door…
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(56/79)
Cumulative Annual FDI
FDI Permits
Permits
Years
(million
(million
USD)
USD)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003 *
97
435
602
704
976
1210
1574
2229
3050
4562
6423
8390
10210
12274
13751
16690
20525
22204
23850
25550
29027
31752
33995
35203
97
338
167
103
271
234
364
655
821
1512
1861
1967
1820
2063
1478
2938
3836
1678
1646
1700
3477
2725
2243
1208
Share of
Number of Total Capital of Realized FDI Realized FDI
Manufacturing
Foreign
Foreign Capital
Inflows
Outflows
Industry on
Capital
Companies
(million
(million
Authorized FDI
Companies
(bill. TL)
USD)
USD)
(%)
91.5
78
28390
73.0
109
47400
141
46
59.0
147
100196
103
48
86.6
166
147109
87
41
68.5
235
254775
113
0
60.9
408
464981
99
0
53.2
619
707164
125
0
44.9
836
960035
115
0
59.8
1172
1597103
354
0
62.8
1525
4847832
663
0
65.2
1856
7943775
684
0
55.7
2123
13101036
907
97
70.0
2330
23441214
911
67
76.0
2554
36737050
746
110
74.9
2830
62449964
636
28
68.0
3161
113013790
934
49
16.7
3582
235971182
914
192
52.0
4068
458968459
852
47
61.8
4533
823560554
953
13
66.1
4950
1446503
813
30
31.8
5328
3063464
1707
725
45.7
5841
6184411
3288
22
39.8
6280
10092737
590
5
58.8
6511
12605285
414
8
Net FDI
Inflows
(million
USD)
95
55
46
113
99
125
115
354
663
684
810
844
636
608
885
722
805
940
783
982
3266
585
406
 FDI inflows into Turkey are far from being sufficient to improve
the economy: Only 16.1 billions of USD within 23 years...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(57/79)
Selected Indicators of External Debts of Turkey (percent)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
61.9
53.9
Selected Events
Public Sector's Share on Total Debts
Total External Debts to GDP
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
2002Q4
2002Q3
2002Q2
2002Q1
2001Q4
2001Q3
2001Q2
2001Q1
2000Q4
2000Q3
2000Q2
2000Q1
1999Q4
1999Q3
1999Q2
1999Q1
1998Q4
1998Q3
1998Q2
1998Q1
17.6
Short-Term to Total Debts
 In 2003, Turkey’s GDP amounted to 240 billion USD, while
its total external debts reached to 147 billion USD.
 95 out of 147 billion USD amounting total debts are created
solely by the public sector.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(58/79)
Reserves vs. External Debts (percent)
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
250.5
174.1
113.3
Selected Events
Net International Reserves to Total External Debts
Central Bank's FX Reserves to Public Sector's External Debts
Net International Reserves to Short-Term External Debts
2004Q4
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
2002Q4
2002Q3
2002Q2
2002Q1
2001Q4
2001Q3
2001Q2
2001Q1
2000Q4
2000Q3
2000Q2
2000Q1
1999Q4
1999Q3
1999Q2
1999Q1
1998Q4
1998Q3
1998Q2
1998Q1
2004Q3
36.8
30.7
29.4
 The ratio of international reserves to short-term external
debts increased significantly after the 2000-2001 financial
crisis, but in the AK-Party era it declined again slightly.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(59/79)
Public Sector:
Deficits and Debts
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(60/79)
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (PSBR) and Consolidated Budget Balance (CBB)
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
Non-interest PSBR to GDP
PSBR to GDP
Non-interest CB to GDP
CB to GDP
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
-18
 The PSBR is a better indicator of the public sector in Turkey
because it also covers the non-CB public institutions.
 The PSBR is diminishing since three years, while the noninterest PSBR is improving.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(61/79)
Cumulative Consolidated Budget Balance / Average Nominal Industrial Production
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
-125
Selected Events
Primary Balance to Nominal Output
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
-150
CB Balance to Nominal Output
 Non-interest (primary) consolidated budget balance (CBB)
seems to be stabilized with respect to nominal output
growth, while the CBB (incl. interest payments) is
diminishing since late 2003 again.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(62/79)
Compound, Weighted Auction Interest-Rates (Treasury, percent) & Confidence Index
200
193.7
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
25.4
40
20
0
15.1
Selected Events
Nominal
Reel (ex ante)
Reel (ex post)
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
-20
Real Sector Confidence Index
 As a result of both the successful disinflationary policies and the
Government’s increasing political credibility, Turkish Treasury
pays now lower interest rates in domestic borrowing.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(63/79)
Domestic Debt Stock of the Public Sector (billion TL)
250000000
200000000
150000000
100000000
50000000
Selected Events
nominal, billion TL
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
0
real, billion TL
 Public sector’s domestic debts increased sharply following
the 2000-2001 crisis, both in nominal and real terms.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(64/79)
Domestic Debt Stock of the Public Sector (billion USD)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
20
 Public sector’s domestic debts in terms of USD are also
increasing sharply...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(65/79)
Ave. Domestic Debt Stock of the Public Sector to Ave. Industrial Output (%)
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
 Public sector’s domestic debts seem to be stabilized with
respect to changes in industrial production index within
the last two years.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(66/79)
Domestic and External Debts of the Public Sector (billion USD)
180
160
140.4
140
120
92.2
84.9
100
80
53.4
60
40
79.9
Domestis Debts of the Public Sector
2004Q4
2004Q3
2004Q2
2004Q1
2003Q4
2003Q3
2003Q2
2003Q1
2002Q4
2002Q3
2002Q2
2002Q1
2001Q4
2001Q3
2001Q2
2001Q1
2000Q4
2000Q3
2000Q1
1999Q4
1999Q3
1999Q2
1999Q1
1998Q4
1998Q3
1998Q2
1998Q1
Selected Events
2000Q2
45.2
20
0
External Debts of the Public Sector
 Since the latest general elections in November 2002, the
public sector’s domestic debts increased more than 65
percent in terms of USD, while its external debts expanded
only around 15 percent.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(67/79)
Financial Sector
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(68/79)
Banking Sector Fragility in Turkey
3.5
Aug. '82
Dec. '82
3.0
2.5
1.5
Aug. '97
Feb. '87
1.0
Oct. '93
Nov. '90
0.5
Jun. '79
Nov. '83
Oct. '94
Feb. '02
High Fragility

BSF3
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
Jan-95
Jan-94
Jan-93
Jan-92
Jan-91
Jan-90
Jan-89
Jan-88
Jan-87
Jan-86
Jan-85
Jan-84
Jan-83
Jan-82
Jan-81
Jan-80
Jan-79
-2.0
Jan-04
Sep. '88
May '80
-1.5
Jul. '99
Jan-03
-1.0
Apr. '94
Jan-02
Jan. '86
Jan-01
-0.5
Nov. '91
0.0
Oct. '00
Feb. '01
2.0
BSF2
Turkish banking sector experienced difficulties many times within the last 25
years, as a result of their own excessive risk-taking behavior in the past.
For Methodology: see Kibritçioğlu (2003), “Monitoring ...”.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(69/79)
Banking Sector Fragility Index
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
-2.0
 The Turkish banking sector is recovering from the 20002001 crisis, and according to the BSF index, it is taking
excessive risk again...
(The BSF3 index is a weighted average of real annual changes in foreign liabilities,
claims on private sector, and total deposits.)
For Methodology: see Kibritçioğlu (2003), “Monitoring ...”.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(70/79)
Banking Sector Fragility in Turkey
Deposit Banks: Foreign Liabilities to Foreign Assets (percent)
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
 The recent developments in the FL to FA ratio indicate that
the external open (short) position of Turkish banking
system is decreasing now...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(71/79)
Weighted Deposit Interest Rates: Ratio of 1-Month to 12-Months Interest Rates (percent)
2004.09
2004.05
2004.01
2003.09
2003.05
2003.01
2002.09
2002.05
2002.01
2001.09
2001.05
2001.01
2000.09
2000.05
2000.01
1999.09
1999.05
1999.01
1998.09
1998.05
1998.01
235
215
195
175
155
135
115
95
75
 The ratio of 1-month to 12-month deposit interest rates
exhibits a different pattern after the 2000-2001 financial
crisis: It is very close to 100 percent now...
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(72/79)
Istanbul Stock Exchange’s National 100 Index
100000
10000
1000
100
10
January 1986 = TL 1
2004.01
2003.01
2002.01
2001.01
2000.01
1999.01
1998.01
1997.01
1996.01
1995.01
1994.01
1993.01
1992.01
1991.01
1990.01
1989.01
1988.01
1987.01
1986.01
1
January 1986 = USD 1
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(73/79)
Annual Increases in ISE’s National 100 Index
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
January 1986 = TL 1
2004.01
2003.01
2002.01
2001.01
2000.01
1999.01
1998.01
1997.01
1996.01
1995.01
1994.01
1993.01
1992.01
1991.01
1990.01
1989.01
1988.01
1987.01
-100
January 1986 = USD 1
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(74/79)
12-Monthly Increases in Istanbul Stock Exchange's National 100 Index
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Selected Events
1986 = 1 TL
2004.10
2004.07
2004.04
2004.01
2003.10
2003.07
2003.04
2003.01
2002.10
2002.07
2002.04
2002.01
2001.10
2001.07
2001.04
2001.01
2000.10
2000.07
2000.04
2000.01
1999.10
1999.07
1999.04
1999.01
1998.10
1998.07
1998.04
1998.01
-100
1986 = 1 USD
 ISE’s (İMKB) National 100 index increased mostly during
the AK-Party era. Since spring 2004, however, it follows a
relatively stable path.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(75/79)
Concluding Remarks
 Inflation and interest rates are declining gradually.
 In the Turkish manufacturing industry, the labor productivity is
increasing and real wages remain low, while the industrial
production index is rising again.
 There is still a deep unemployment problem in Turkey. Production
increases are not fully translated into employment increases yet.
 Excessive risk taking behavior of the banking system (in terms of
the BSF index) is expected to decline towards historical averages.
 Real effective exchange rates do not show an appreciation of
Turkish lira anymore.
 Further structural reforms, stronger privatization efforts and
continuity in political stability are needed in the country.
 In Turkey, it is expected that a decision of the heads of EU
governments next month in favor of the start of the accession
talks for full-membership in early 2005 will positively affect the
Turkish economy, particularly in terms of the FDI inflows.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(76/79)
Statistical Sources
for Figures and Tables
 CBRT/TCMB, Electronic Data Distribution System.
 SPO/DPT, Main Economic Indicators.
 UT/HM, Treasury Statistics.
 ISE/İMKB, Annual Yerabook.
 IMF/IFS, IFS & DOTS.
 Penn World Table (PWT), 6.1
 Pick’s/World Currency Yearbook
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(77/79)
Appendix:
Selected Macroeconomic
Indicators for Turkey,
1970-2003
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(78/79)
Consumer
Real GDP
Price
Growth (%)
Inflation (%)
Change in
Nominal
TL/US$
Exchange
Rate (%)
Absolute Change
JP Morgan's
Change in
in Central Bank's
Real Effective
Average
Gross Foreign
Exchange
Crude Oil
Exchange
Rate
Import Price
Reserves (millions
(1990=100)
(%)
of USD)
Foreign
Exchange
Deposits to
Money
Supply M2
(%)
Change in
Nominal
Money
Supply M2
(%)
Public Sector
Borrowing
Requirement
to GDP (%)
Istanbul
Actual
Stock
Current
Foreign
Official
Capacity
Short-Term
Exchange's
Account
Direct
Unemploy- Utilization in the
Capital Inflow
Composite
Balance
Investment
ment Rate Manufac-turing
(millions of
100 Index in (millions of
Inflow
(%)
Industry (%)
USD)
USD
USD)
(millions of
(1986=1.0)
USD)
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003*
6.9
15.7
11.7
15.4
15.8
19.2
17.4
27.1
45.3
58.7
110.2
36.6
30.8
31.4
48.4
45.0
34.6
38.8
73.7
63.3
60.3
66.0
70.1
66.1
106.3
88.1
80.3
85.7
84.6
64.9
54.9
54.4
45.0
25.3
3.2
5.6
7.4
3.3
5.6
7.2
10.5
3.4
1.5
- 0.6
- 2.4
4.9
3.6
5.0
6.7
4.2
7.0
9.5
2.1
0.3
9.3
0.9
6.0
8.0
- 5.5
7.2
7.0
7.5
3.1
- 4.7
7.4
- 7.5
7.9
5.8
26.4
31.1
- 5.5
- 0.1
- 1.6
3.8
10.9
12.3
35.0
27.9
144.3
46.8
45.9
39.2
61.9
42.6
29.3
27.2
66.4
48.6
22.9
60.2
64.6
60.5
169.9
53.7
78.0
86.8
71.6
61.0
48.5
96.5
22.9
- 0.8
220.4
259.7
208.3
173.9
131.9
123.1
118.2
107.4
96.2
74.9
87.7
93.1
104.1
110.0
122.4
122.9
119.7
119.3
115.4
105.3
100.0
102.8
112.2
107.7
137.1
131.7
134.2
127.2
127.6
128.6
113.9
128.9
112.8
113.5
176
322
564
716
- 433
- 561
57
- 331
163
- 143
419
- 149
151
174
- 14
- 219
348
351
589
2 524
1 141
- 1 054
1 198
97
899
5 279
3 882
2 146
1 302
3 456
- 1 005
- 3 385
8 020
6 809
- 0.7
21.8
5.8
39.9
159.0
21.4
8.2
12.5
- 1.0
37.8
110.5
- 0.2
- 9.7
- 9.7
- 5.5
- 1.2
- 49.5
27.5
- 18.4
17.9
33.1
- 20.6
- 1.6
- 14.8
- 2.1
7.6
21.4
- 8.8
- 35.3
41.6
58.7
- 15.7
2.8
14.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.1
9.0
22.3
31.5
34.6
29.5
30.4
44.4
55.6
69.9
94.9
99.7
89.8
97.1
83.8
82.2
79.4
127.9
120.7
86.4
21.9
28.1
26.0
28.4
25.7
28.0
23.4
33.8
36.5
61.7
74.5
85.0
56.7
29.8
58.0
55.5
42.5
45.0
54.1
73.3
51.8
63.6
62.9
48.1
123.2
99.4
132.8
93.5
101.9
96.1
42.5
48.0
31.0
33.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4.9
6.9
8.2
3.2
7.3
8.9
4.0
3.6
5.0
5.4
3.6
3.7
6.1
4.8
5.4
7.5
10.2
10.7
12.1
7.9
5.0
8.8
7.9
9.7
15.8
12.6
16.2
12.6
8.6
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
8.3
7.3
7.2
7.9
7.8
7.3
8.1
8.5
8.7
8.7
8.2
7.8
8.0
7.7
8.1
6.9
6.0
6.4
6.8
7.6
6.6
8.4
10.4
10.6
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
56.9
55.2
56.7
59.4
60.3
74.3
70.3
70.0
77.1
74.8
72.8
75.2
74.0
76.4
79.6
72.9
78.6
78.0
79.4
76.5
72.4
75.9
70.9
75.4
78.4
1970-1979
1980
1981-1988
1989-1993
1994
1995-1999
2000-2001
2002-2003
1970-2003
23.3
110.2
42.4
65.1
106.3
80.7
54.7
35.1
49.9
4.7
- 2.4
5.4
4.9
- 5.5
4.0
- 0.1
6.9
4.1
14.0
144.3
44.9
51.4
169.9
70.2
72.5
11.0
46.7
151.4
87.7
113.4
105.6
137.1
129.9
121.4
113.1
126.2
53
419
154
781
899
3 213
- 2 195
7 414
985
30.5
110.5
- 8.3
2.8
- 2.1
5.3
21.5
8.8
13.2
0.0
0.0
12.8
46.0
94.9
90.5
103.6
103.5
38.1
31.4
74.5
53.3
59.9
123.2
104.7
45.2
32.3
56.4
6.1
8.9
4.5
9.2
7.9
9.4
14.4
10.6
7.8
8.3
7.9
8.1
8.1
6.8
7.5
10.5
7.9
56.9
55.2
67.8
75.6
72.9
77.0
73.4
76.9
71.6
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1.0
4.0
2.3
2.6
8.9
5.3
3.4
5.6
4.2
5.3
5.0
7.8
7.3
8.0
13.2
5.1
4.2
4.9
- 171
- 109
- 8
484
- 561
- 1 648
- 2 029
- 3 140
- 1 265
- 1 413
- 3 408
- 1 936
- 952
- 1 923
- 1 439
- 1 013
- 1 465
- 806
1 596
938
- 2 625
250
- 974
- 6 433
2 631
- 2 338
- 2 437
- 2 638
1 984
- 1 344
- 9 819
3 390
- 1 522
- 6 808
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
40
73
968
402
- 1 000
- 2
121
98
798
- 652
1 479
812
50
- 2 281
- 584
3 000
- 3 020
1 396
2 994
- 5 190
3 635
2 665
- 7
1 313
1 024
4 200
- 11 321
- 1 279
4 269
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
35
95
55
46
113
99
125
115
354
663
684
810
844
636
608
885
722
805
940
783
982
3 266
585
294
2.4
5.2
4.2
6.7
9.2
4.6
5.5
- 986
- 3 408
- 992
- 1 769
2 631
- 1 355
- 3 215
- 4 165
- 1 440
97
- 2
53
757
- 5 190
1 726
- 3 561
1 495
138
35
125
727
608
827
2 124
440
606
Source: State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT), State Planning Organization (SPO), the IMF and J.P.Morgan; Kibritçioğlu’s calculations.
Kibritçioğlu, November 1-15, 2004,
(79/79)