2010 PASFAA Conference
MONDAY OCTOBER 10TH 2010
Retention – Why???
Dr. James Theeuwes
Director Student Financial Services
Lock Haven University
When a Product Fails
• Dell, the world's largest personal computer maker, was forced to recall 4.1
million notebook computer batteries because they could overheat and
catch fire - the biggest recall in its history.
• Apple Computer also recalled 1.8 million Sony notebook computer
batteries for same reason as above.
• Marvel recalled 175,0000 Curious George 12-inch plush dolls - a monkey
with a plastic face – were in November 2007 due to the risk of lead
exposure and poisoning.
• IKEA, popular bargain furniture retailer recalled more than 500,000 sets
of roller blinds in October 2009 because they posed a strangulation risk to
small children.
When a Product Fails
• Firestone recalled in August 2000 6.5 million tires
produced at its Firestone US division following greater than
average reports of incidents involving them
• Mattel, the world's largest toymaker recalled more than 18
million made-in-China toys in 2007 because of hazards
from small, powerful magnets that can cause injury if
swallowed The magnets were in Polly Pocket, Doggie Day
and Batman toys.
• Mattel recalled 1.5 million toys due to fears about lead
paint. Nearly 50,000 die-cast Sarge cars - from the hit
animated film Cars - were found to have "impermissible
levels of lead
When a Product Fails
• General Motors recalled close to one million Cadillac, Pontiac and
Chevrolet cars because of fears the air bags may deploy by accident
in 2002.
• Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc., announced that it will launch a
voluntary Safety Recall involving approximately 600,000 first- and
second-generation Sienna 2WD minivans sold in the United States
to address potential corrosion in the spare tire carrier cable
• Ford is recalling all remaining vehicles – approximately 4.5 million
U.S. vehicles – equipped with Texas Instruments speed control
deactivation switches. While the data show the majority of the
vehicles being recalled do not pose a significant safety risk, we are
recalling the vehicles to reassure customers and eliminate any
future concerns. This recall affects older models, including
discontinued vehicles.
When our Product Fails
• 3,024,723 Freshmen Enrolled for Fall 2008
– 937,664 or 31% didn’t make it past their
Freshmen Year Public resource cost: $5.85 billion
( using 2002 public support per FTE amount)
– 1,935,823 or 64% will not graduate in at least 6
years. Public resource cost: $24.5 Billion
– DO WE NEED A PRODUCT RECALL???????
– From: http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d09/tables/dt09_222.asp
When our Product Fails
• In the past 20 years graduation rates at both
public and private four –year institutions have
declined (Habley & McClananhan, 2004).
• The ‘gap’ in 5 year graduation rates between
public and private also widened from 1988 to
2007. The gap in 1988 was 10.1% (48 % vs.
58.1) and in 2007 the ‘gap’ was 14.1 (43.7%
vs. 57.8%
When our Product Fails
• When compared to an overall attrition rate of
40% (Strauss & Volkwein, 2004), 50% of
attrition from a college usually takes place
between the freshmen and sophomore years
(Theeuwes, 2006).
• So the question remains, with all that is being
done to encourage more students to attend
and persist in college, why haven’t the
attrition numbers decreased?
Definition of a ‘leaver’
– The following definition captures the essence of
the problem of students leaving college prior to
graduation:
• A leaver or dropout is a student who enters a college or
university with the intention of graduating, and, due to
personal or institutional shortcomings, leaves school
and, for an extended period of time, does not return to
the original, or any other, school." In considering any
definition, it is important to identify if the definition is
from the perspective of the individual student, the
institution, or from the economic or labor force
perspective.
Retention Rates First Time College
Freshmen
Table 2
Attrition Rates- First-time College Freshmen returning their Second Year
_______________________________________________________________
1990
25.0%
1995
25.8%
1999
25.9%
2001
25.9%
2002
26.4%
Public
Support
per FTE
$4,318
$4,649
$5,722
$6,275
$6,243
18/19
Year Olds
Able to
Enroll
(000’s)
7,208
7,182
8,094
8,170
8,125
18/19
Enrolling
in PostSecondary
44.0%
43.1%
44.1%
44.0%
45.3%
Attrition
Rate
___________________________________________________________________
Note: From the NCHEMS Information Center. Retrieved on 09/04/2007 from the Higher
Education Information Web Site: http://www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/index
Average National First Year Retention
Rate
Retention Rate
75.5
75
74.5
74
Retention Rate
73.5
73
72.5
1990
1995
1999
2001
2002
Average Dollars spent per student
State and Local
tax appropriations
7000
6000
5000
4000
State and Local
tax appropriations
3000
2000
1000
0
1990
1995
1999
2001
2002
Average Number of New Students
Enrolled
Percentage
of 18/19 Year olds enrolled
45.5
45
44.5
44
percetage
of 18/19 enrolled
43.5
43
42.5
42
1990
1995
1999
2001
2002
Average Number of Student Available
to Enroll
Number of
18/19 available
8400
8200
8000
7800
7600
Number of
18/19 available
7400
7200
7000
6800
6600
1990
1995
1999
2001
2002
19 Year Graduation Rates and 1st year
Retention Rates for Four Year Colleges
Graduation Rates by College Type
Graduation Rates by Admissions Policy
Freshman Retention and Graduation
Rates for Selected States
Five Year
Aver
Freshman
Freshman Graduation Retention
Retention Rate 6 year 2004 - 2008
Rate 2008 2008
Five Year
Average 6
Year
Graduation
Rate 20042008
Selected States
Arizona
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
West Virginia
Ohio
Washington
Florida
Indiana
Alabama
52%
74%
75%
70%
66%
68%
72%
71%
70%
67%
40%
46%
39%
46%
39%
47%
51%
47%
52%
36%
60%
73%
72%
69%
67%
68%
75%
67%
72%
66%
46%
46%
38%
45%
40%
47%
51%
48%
51%
36%
Pennsylvania
75%
58%
75%
57%
Sample Average
69%
46%
69%
46%
Retention – Students Lost During the
‘Educational Pipline’
Retention For Profits
• Four-year for-profit schools, such as the
University of Phoenix, Kaplan University, and
DeVry University, represent the fastestgrowing segment of higher education in the
United States. However, their graduation rates
average only around 20 percent.
Government Help???
• In July 2009, President Obama laid out an ambitious program, the
American Graduation Initiative, that could have made a difference.
• The program would have pumped $12 billion into community
colleges to help meet the 2020 goal.
– It included $2.5 billion for construction and renovation at the nation's
community colleges, $500 million to develop new online courses, and
$9 billion for "challenge grants" aimed at spurring innovation in higher
education.
These grants would have been competitive, requiring IHEs to design new
programs or revamp existing ones. Here was an opportunity for the
federal government to encourage IHEs to do a better job in graduating
their students,
But exhausted by the fight over healthcare legislation and hamstrung by
the rules governing the reconciliation process, these policies—all of
which could have helped enhance graduation rates—were eliminated
or emasculated.
Two year School Retention
• Graduation rates from two-year schools are far
worse
—fewer than one-third of degree-seeking students
complete in three years. Note that only about one in
five students in public community colleges complete
their degree programs in three years.
In contrast, graduation rates from for-profit
institutions average around 60 percent. Not-for-profit
two-year institutions also have high graduation rates,
but they represent a small segment of the market
(only about 5 percent of two-year institutions are notfor-profit).
Can attrition be expected?
• Natural rate of attrition (Theeuwes, 2006)
– Is suggested by the fact there has been little to no
change in over all attrition rate in the last 25
years.
– Can be defined as some rate that will always be
there no matter what is done. No such thing as
100% Retention Rate.
Causes for a Natural Rate of Attrition
• Four main causes• Seasonal attrition
– a change in the number of students attending our colleges
and universities from term to term or from year to year. This
is commonly referred to as “stopping out.”
• Frictional attrition
– is caused by movement of the student from college to college
or from one physical location to another which makes
attendance difficult if not impossible and makes degree
completion even harder.
Causes for a Natural Rate of Attrition
– Structural attrition
• can be thought of as attrition caused by a “bad fit”
between college and student, between student and
course work. It can be used to describe the situation of
students coming to college to “find themselves”, not
fully prepared and thus unable to persist due to
inadequate academic skills or social skills
Causes for a Natural Rate of Attrition
– Cyclical attrition
• can be thought of as the idea that education is not for
everyone because not everyone is admissible or
prepared, be it academically, socially, or financially.
This lack of preparation can be caused by a lack of
planning, lack of financing, or a disbelief in the ability to
benefit from an education.
Human Issues of Retention
• Problems with those who don’t graduate
– Have debt and nothing to show for tuition paid
– Employment will not make up for this difference
– Lifetime earnings will be diminished
– Loss of human capital – highly trained individuals
– Social welfare issues: voting and health
Institutional Issues for Retention
• Problems for institution
– High rate of attrition is a fiscal problem for schools
– Is a symbolic failure of an institution to achieve its
purpose (mission)
– Hurts a schools reputation
– Can cause governmental concern
– Hinder financial aid (default rates)
– Moral obligations
Why Retention Matters-Benefits of
Higher Education
• Individuals with higher levels of education earn more and are more
likely to be employed
• Federal, state and local governments enjoy increased tax revenues
fro college graduates
• College-educated adults are more likely than others to receive
health benefits and pension benefits from their employers
• College education leads to healthier lifestyles, reduction health care
cost for individual and society
• College- educated parents engage in more educational activities
with their children, who are better prepared for school than others
• Adults with higher education levels are more active citizens than
others
• Resource: Education Pays 2010; College Board,
Facts of Retention
• What we know:
– The highest institutional retention rates in the country are
above 95 percent, while the lowest may be only 10 percent.
– Typical graduation rates for elite schools may be 85 percent or
higher; for average schools about 50 percent; and for non-elite
schools 15 to 25 percent.
– Freshmen are most likely to drop out of school, while seniors
are least likely to leave.
– For an average institution, freshman to sophomore year
attrition is about 25 percent; sophomore to junior year attrition
is about 12 percent; junior to senior year attrition is about 8
percent; and about 4 percent of seniors might leave school.
– Roughly half of an incoming class graduates in four to five years.
What We Know
• Students who stay are:
– Enrolled In college right after high school
– Attend full time, seeking a Bachelor’s degree
– Usually white or Asian
– Educated parents, high income, high
socioeconomic status
– Taken college prep course, scored well on
standardized test.
– They are engaged at the college of their choice
‘they fit’
What we Know
• Students who leave;
– Have Lower High School academics and test scores
– Do not integrate into either the academic or social atmosphere at
college
– Do not commit to the school
– Financial issues
– Does not ‘fit in’
• Students who attend the most
selective colleges for which they
are academically qualified are more
likely to graduate than students who
‘undermatch’ by enrolling in colleges
that do not match their qualifications (CB)
– Outside influences
– Non residential students
Retention factor babble
– Background Variables
• These include parental support, parents' education, parents'
income, educational goals, precollege academic success (high class
rank, grade point average, standardized test scores), college
preparatory curriculum, and friends attending college.
• For minority students, background variables include extended
family support, church and community support, and previous
positive interracial/intercultural contact
• For nontraditional students they include spouse support and
employer support
Retention Factor Babble
– Organizational Factors
• These include financial aid, orientation programs, rules and
regulations, memberships in campus organizations,
involvement in decision-making, housing policies,
counseling, the bursars office, ease of registration, and staff
attitudes toward students.
• For minority students, organizational factors include role
models in staff and faculty, a supportive environment, at
least 20 percent minority enrollment, and not viewing rules
as oppressive.
• For nontraditional students, parking, child care, campus
safety, availability of services after hours, evening/weekend
scheduling, and cost per credit hour are factors.
Retention Factor Babble
– Academic Factors.
• These include courses offered, positive faculty
interaction (both in class and out of class), advising,
general skills programs (e.g., basic skills, study skills,
math, and English tutoring/help centers), campus
resources (e.g., computer, library, athletic, college
union), absenteeism, certainty of major, and academic
integration.
• Factors affecting minority students include warm
classroom climate and faculty role models,
• Factors affecting nontraditional students include the
expectation for individual faculty member attention.
Retention Factor Babble
– Social Factors.
• Among the social factors affecting retention are close
friends on campus, peer culture, social involvement
(e.g., service learning, Greek organizations), informal
contact with faculty, identification with a group on
campus, and social integration.
• For minority students, social factors also include a
positive intercultural/interracial environment and at
least 20 percent minority enrollment.
• For non traditional students – no one like me.
Retention Factor Babble
– Environmental Factors.
• These include continued parental support, little
opportunity to transfer, financial resources, significant
other elsewhere, family responsibilities, getting
married, and a job off campus more than twenty hours
per week.
• Factors affecting minority students also include the
availability of grants.
Retention Factor Babble
– Attitudes, intentions, and Psychological
Processes.
• These include self-efficacy as a student, sense of selfdevelopment and self-confidence, internal locus of
control, strategies of approach, motivation to study,
need for achievement, satisfaction, practical value of
one's education, stress, alienation, loyalty, sense of
fitting it, and intention to stay enrolled.
• For minority students, self-validation is also a factor.
Retention: Not Rocket Science
• Programs to enhance retention
– Early outreach programs (into high school or junior
high) to develop students' academic competencies.
– Bridge programs that provide study on campus
between high school and college.
– Orientation programs to ease the transition to college
that contain academic strategies, social support, and
information about campus life.
– Programs for parents so they understand student life.
– First-semester courses that continue orientation and
provide support and information about campus and
freshmen interest groups.
Retention: Not Rocket Science
• Programs to enhance retention
– Advising and psychological or social counseling.
• In 1999 Tinto argues that an academic adviser who is fully integrated
into the first year experience can be an excellent source of
professional knowledge about student success.
– Academic skills development (basic skills, time
management,
– Monitoring students for early warning signs and
intrusive counseling/advising.
– Social programming for informal socializing (parties,
dances, mixers, community programs), and physical
places for socializing (unions, lounges, places to eat,
study areas that allow talking in libraries).
Retention: Not Rocket Science
• Programs to enhance retention
– Participation in campus organizations and activities.
– Programs celebrating cultural diversity, including events of
particular interest to diverse groups.
– Sensitivity to ethnic and racial issues.
– Campus development (students interacting with
administrators, faculty, and staff to improve the campus
environment
– Exit interviews.
Retention Programs that work
• Wayne State University Had a 34 percentage point gap between its
graduation rates for white (43.5 percent) and black (9.5 percent)
students in 2007.
• Two years ago, Wayne State implemented the kind of learning
community approach that many colleges have embraced, and
strengthened its need-based aid program to try to eliminate the
financial reasons that might lead many academically under
prepared students to drop out. The first-to-second-year retention
rate for black students rose to 69.6 percent from 56.8 percent from
2007 to 2008, and when the figures for 2009 become available in a
month Wayne State hopes to show additional progress.
•
Howard N. Shapiro, associate vice president for student services and undergraduate affairs and a
professor of mechanical engineering there.
Retention: Fit Is Important
• Loyola University: As a result, "when students
get to campus, there isn't this culture shock"
that minority students at many colleges with
smaller cohorts of such students face, he said.
Black (65.2 percent) and Latino students (66.0
percent) alike at Loyola graduate at slightly
higher rates than do white students (63.2
percent).
Retention: Fit Is Important
• George Mason University: The story is similar at George
Mason University, which has "many of the interventions
and support systems that have proven to be most effective
at institutions nationwide" -- learning communities,
intensive tutoring, etc., said Andrew Flagel, dean of
admissions and enrollment development there.
• But what most distinguishes the Virginia public university -but is "virtually impossible to replicate" -- is that it is
"intensely globally diverse," such that "nearly every student
who comes is going to find a cohort of students that they
can see themselves fitting into."
•
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2010/08/10/gaps
What Can you do?
• Role of Aid Administrator –
• Role of other college ‘folks’
•
•
•
•
Admissions
Registrar
Student Support Services
Others?????
What Can you Do?
• One Stop Shop
– College focused effort
• Needs coordination and cooperation
• Needs a refocus of limited resources
– Less then 1/3 of all responding institutions to a recent CB
study have a designated campus administrator who can fund
initiatives or make policy decisions to enhance student
success and increase persistence (2009).
• Needs to be serious and not just rhetoric
• Need to remember “perfect is not possible”
• Look at policies and procedures and not the ‘good kid
syndrome’
Retention Is our Business
• Finally – If a student is granted admission to our institutions,
by this fact we are telling them they have the necessary skills
to succeed. If we know that they lack these skills when they
are admitted then we owe it to them to provide them with
the necessary services that will make them successful.
• Failure is an option for our students, they are responsible
adults and make adult decisions. If they are given the tools to
succeed and then fail that is one thing, but to fail without
getting the proper tools is another.
Questions/Contact
• Dr. James Theeuwes
– Director Student Financial Services
– Lock Haven University
– jtheeuwe@lhup.edu
Resources
• College Success Programs Author: R. Denise
Myers.http://www.pathwaystocollege.net/pdf/College
SuccessPrograms.pdf
• University of Lousiville. REACH, retention program.
http://www.reach.louisville.edu/about/retention.html
• The Role of Academic andNon-Academic Factors
inImproving College Retention Authors:Veronica
Lotkowski, Steven Robbins, Richard Noeth. ACT Policy
Report.
http://www.act.org/research/policymakers/pdf/college
_retention.pdf
Resources
• Syracuse University: Division of Student Support
and Retention.
http://www.studentsupport.syr.edu/
• McLennan Community College. Retention
Program.
http://www.mclennan.edu/departments/hsp/ad
n/retention.html
• Hudson Valley Community College. Retention
Programs.
https://www.hvcc.edu/issr/otherprograms.html
Resources
• The Pell Institute. http://www.pellinstitute.org/
• Access to Higher Education for African Americans.
Author: Pelonomi K. Khumoetsile-Taylor.
http://www.bhcc.mass.edu/PDFs/TFOTHigherEdu
cAfricanAmeric.pdf
• EFFECTIVE PRACTICES WEBLIOGRAPHY
http://www.studentretention.org/RetentionRetre
atPPT/TAB8_EFFECTIVEPRACTICESWEBLIOGRAPH
Y.pdf