Presentation

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Changing Society with ICTs: An

Investigation of Tech. Determinism

OASIS Workshop 2004

Author:

Pratyush Bharati

University of Massachusetts, Boston

Introduction

ICTs driven prognostications abound:

Friction-free capitalism (Gates, 1995)

Death of distance (Cairncross, 1997; Dyson et al.

, 1996; Toffler, 1980)

Weightless world (Coyle, 1997)

Digital economy (Shaw, 1999; Tapscott, 1998)

Popular and academic discourse claims arrival of a digital world

Introduction

Is the digital world a reality or have we been seduced by the popular rhetoric?

Enamored by the novel (Barley, 1998)

Wonder overpower scepticism (Barley, 1998)

Sweeping predictions mislead (Orlikowski and Iacono,

2000)

Need for a balanced perspective (Baskerville and Myers,

2002; Hirschheim and Klein, 2003; Markus and Robey,

1988; Orlikowski, 1992; Orlikowski and Iacono, 2000;

Sarker and Lee, 2002)

Research Study

Investigating technological determinism and

ICTs

Historical accounts of tech. determinism

Recent accounts of tech. determinism

State of the digital world

 International digital divide

Technological Determinism

Given the past and the laws of nature, there is only one possible future course of social change (Van Inwagen,1983)

Technological development determines social change (Bimber, 1994)

Unidirectional relationship (Bimber, 1994)

Historical Accounts of

Technological Determinism

 On “June 1993” written in 1893 (Marvin, 1987)

“Today the inhabitants of this planet … owing to the unlimited facilities of intercommunication, they are almost as closely united as the members of a family”

On the Telegraph (Wilson et al., 1986)

“The influence of this invention… Space will be, to all practical purposes of information, completely annihilated…”

On the Telephone (Smith, 1986)

“Nothing less than a new organization of society”

Recent Accounts of

Technological Determinism

 On the ‘Work-Free Society’ (Dertouzous, 1997)

“The people of the world will do no work, because they will derive all revenue they need to buy their desired goods and services from the machines that they own.

Machines will make the machines that are needed, too”

On the Microchip and Computer (Gilder, 1989)

“The central event of the twentieth century is the overthrow of matter … The powers of mind are everywhere ascendant over the brute force of things.”

Recent Accounts of

Technological Determinism

On 2009 (Kurzweil, 1999)

“Students of all ages typically have a computer of their own …”

On the new ICTs (Gates, 1995)

“It will enhance leisure time and enrich culture by expanding the distribution of information.”

“… a new world of low-friction, low overhead capitalism

…”

“… friction-free capitalism…”

“A Computer on every desk and in every home”

Investigating a Digital World

Is the digital world becoming a reality?

Global diffusion of technology

Older technologies

 Atleast 50 years or older

Telephones

Television

Newer technologies

 Less than 50 years old

 Cellular phones

 Internet

Methodology

Country level data on technologies

World Bank, UNDP and ITU

130 countries

Hierarchical cluster analysis

Six cluster solution for each of the four cluster analyses

Results

First cluster analysis

Both older and newer technologies

 First cluster (74 countries) and the second cluster (30 countries) significantly lack both older and newer technologies

 Rest of cluster have significantly higher density of both older and newer technologies

Second cluster analysis

Newer technologies

 First cluster (100 countries) significantly lack newer technologies

 The rest have significantly higher density of newer technologies

Results

Third cluster analysis

Older technologies

 First cluster (75 countries) significantly lack older technologies

 The third (15 countries) and fourth (8 countries) clusters significantly higher density of both the older technologies

 Other cluster have a lower density of the telephone mainlines but a higher density of televisions

Fourth cluster analysis

UNDP Index

 Second cluster (42 countries) significantly high score

 First (50 countries) and third (4 countries) clusters high index score for all but the GDP index

 Clusters four and five low score on all the four indices

Index Clusters

Cluster 1

Countries: 50

EDU: 0.82

GDP: 0.64

GDI: 0.72

HDI: 0.73

Cluster 2

Countries: 42

EDU: 0.92

GDP: 0.86

GDI: 0.87

HDI: 0.88

Cluster 3

Countries: 4

EDU: 0.87

GDP: 0.45

GDI: 0.67

HDI: 0.68

Cluster 4

Countries: 19

EDU: 0.45

GDP: 0.43

GDI: 0.43

HDI: 0.44

Cluster 5

Countries: 4

EDU: 0.31

GDP: 0.33

GDI: 0.31

HDI: 0.32

Cluster 6

Countries: 11

EDU: 0.66

GDP: 0.50

GDI: 0.58

HDI: 0.58

.72

Figure 2: Cluster Mapping - Index Clusters and Older Technologies Clusters and

Newer Technologies Clusters

Older Technologies Clusters

Cluster 1

Countries:75

TEL: 6.02

TV: 112.05

1.0

0.22

.76

.43

Cluster 2

Countries:29

TEL: 31.91

TV: 342.62

1.

0

.36

0.5

3

Cluster 3

Countries:15

TEL: 63.14

TV: 588.67

.8

75

1

.0

Cluster 4

Countries:8

TEL:49.05

TV: 465.13

Cluster 5

Countries:2

TEL: 28.14

TV: 568.00

Cluster 6

Countries:1

TEL: 8.95

TV: 591.00

Newer Technologies Clusters

Cluster 1

Countries: 100

IH: 7.96

CELL: 4.72

Cluster 2

Countries: 22

IH: 199.54

CELL: 40.29

Cluster 3

Countries: 1

IH: 424.53

CELL: 22.65

Cluster 4

Countries: 5

IH: 776.42

CELL: 59.21

Cluster 5

Countries: 1

IH: 146.09

CELL: 63.61

Cluster 6

Countries: 1

IH: 1479.75

CELL: 31.55

Preliminary Conclusions

Technological Determinism and Digital world

Accounts of technological determinism

 Prevalence of historical and recent accounts on ICTs

Extremely low density of ICTs, especially older technologies, challenges the basic assumption of technological determinism

 Older technologies – acting as primary and independent force for social change not universally prevalent

 Substantial number of countries lag far behind in terms of density in both older and newer technologies

Balanced View of Technology

Balanced views of technology:

Complex pattern/path of interaction between social, economic, political, cultural factors and technology (Castells, 2000; Kranzberg, 1987;

Orlikowski and Iacono, 2000)

Involves numerous processes and components

(Kranzberg, 1987)

Technology and society relationship is reciprocal not unidirectional (Bimber, 1994)

Balanced View of Technology

Does technology shape society?

Non-technical factors take precedence in technologypolicy decisions (Kranzberg, 1987)

“… factors affecting technology – from the human personality of the inventor to the larger social, economic, political, and cultural milieu.”

Technology does not determine society: it embodies it.

But neither does society determine technological innovation: it uses it (Castells, 2000)

“… final outcome depends on a complex pattern of interaction.”

Thanks!

Questions or Suggestions

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