South Lakeland District
2014 Strategic Housing Market Assessment
Update
Final Report for South Lakeland District Council
May 2014
Main Contact:
arc4 Ltd
Michael Bullock
Email: michael.bullock@arc4.co.uk
Website: www.arc4.co.uk
Publishing Date: May 2014
©2014 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary....................................................................................................... 7
1.
Introduction ....................................................................................................... 14
Background and methodology ....................................................................................... 14
NPPF requirements....................................................................................................... 14
Definitions ..................................................................................................................... 15
SHMA Guidance ........................................................................................................... 16
NPPF requirements....................................................................................................... 16
Research methodology ................................................................................................. 17
Geography .................................................................................................................... 18
Report structure ............................................................................................................ 21
2.
Policy and strategic review .............................................................................. 22
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 22
National policy............................................................................................................... 22
National Housing Strategy............................................................................................. 24
Local strategic priorities ................................................................................................ 33
Concluding comments................................................................................................... 36
3.
South Lakeland District Housing Market Context .......................................... 38
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 38
House prices and rates of change ................................................................................. 38
Relative affordability ...................................................................................................... 41
Household migration and search behaviour .................................................................. 43
Characteristics of moving households ........................................................................... 43
Travel to work trends..................................................................................................... 48
Estate agent views on housing market dynamics .......................................................... 50
Stakeholder views on the housing market ..................................................................... 52
Concluding comments................................................................................................... 53
4.
Strategic Housing Market Assessment Core Outputs ................................... 55
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 55
Core Output 1: Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition,
tenure............................................................................................................................ 55
Core Output 2: Past and current housing market trends; balance between supply
and demand; key drivers ............................................................................................... 60
Core Output 3: Future households ............................................................................. 73
Core Output 4: Current households in need ................................................................. 75
Core Output 5: Future households requiring affordable housing................................... 78
Core Output 6: Future households requiring market housing ....................................... 78
Core Output 7: Size of affordable housing required ................................................... 83
Relative affordability of affordable housing .................................................................... 92
Core Output 8: Estimates of household groups who have particular housing
requirements ................................................................................................................. 93
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5.
Objectively Assessed Need, NPPF requirements and occupancy
restrictions. ................................................................................................................ 101
Objectively assessed need for housing ....................................................................... 101
Market housing: key issues ......................................................................................... 102
Affordable housing: key issues .................................................................................... 103
Stakeholder views on new development ..................................................................... 104
Restrictions on occupancy of new dwellings................................................................ 106
6.
Conclusion: policy and strategic issues....................................................... 110
The current housing market ........................................................................................ 110
Market interactions and self-containment .................................................................... 110
Future housing market ................................................................................................ 111
Housing need and demand ......................................................................................... 111
NPPF requirements..................................................................................................... 114
Final comments........................................................................................................... 115
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1
Strategic Housing Market Assessment core outputs .......................................... 16
Table 1.3
South Lakeland District Housing Market Areas, Key Service Centres and
constituent parishes........................................................................................... 19
Table 2.1:
Ranking of priorities by stakeholders ................................................................. 35
Table 3.1
Relative affordability of lower quartile prices by Local Authority ......................... 42
Table 3.2
Moving households: origin and destination ........................................................ 44
Table 3.3
Residential mobility – movement between different tenures .............................. 46
Table 3.4
Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size ............. 47
Table 3.5
Location preferences of households intending to move in the next two years
by current place of residence ............................................................................. 48
Table 3.6
Workplace by place of residence ....................................................................... 50
Table 3.7
Summary of household migration and workplace patterns ................................. 54
Table 4.1
Property type and size ....................................................................................... 56
Table 4.2
Dissatisfaction with state of repair by property tenure, age and type ................. 58
Table 4.3
Median property prices in South Lakeland District 1996-2013, annual rate of
change and income required to be affordable .................................................... 62
Table 4.4
High income household dwelling aspirations and expectations .......................... 68
Table 4.5
Review of general market supply and demand by Housing Market Area ........... 69
Table 4.6
Review of general market supply and demand by Key Service Centre .............. 70
Table 4.7
Primary market drivers....................................................................................... 70
Table 4.8
Forecast household change 2012 to 2032 (20 years) ........................................ 74
Table 4.9
Head of Household change in South Lakeland District ...................................... 74
Table 4.10
Population change in South Lakeland District .................................................... 75
Table 4.11
Housing need in South Lakeland District ........................................................... 76
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Table 4.12
Housing need by key service centre, housing market area and local planning
authority area .................................................................................................... 77
Table 4.13
Housing need by tenure and household type ..................................................... 78
Table 4.14
Housing need by household type ....................................................................... 78
Table 4.15
Market preferences of existing households planning to move in the next 5
years ................................................................................................................. 80
Table 4.16
Property type and size expectations by household type .................................... 82
Table 4.17
Household expectations (newly-forming households) ........................................ 83
Table 4.18
Net annual affordable housing requirements by sub-area, market area,
property size and designation 2014/15 to 2018/19............................................. 84
Table 4.19
Affordability thresholds of existing households in need and newly-forming
households: by Housing Market Area ................................................................ 86
Table 4.20
Affordability thresholds of existing households in need and newly-forming
households: by Planning Authority Area ............................................................ 87
Table 4.21
Affordability thresholds of existing households in need and newly-forming
households: South Lakeland District summary .................................................. 87
Table 4.22
Affordable housing tenure split .......................................................................... 88
Table 4.23
Annual affordable shortfall requirements by tenure based on tenure splits by
housing market and Local Planning Authority area ............................................ 89
Table 4.24
Intermediate tenure price range ......................................................................... 90
Table 4.25
Intermediate tenure price affordability ................................................................ 91
Table 4.26
Property type preferences ................................................................................. 91
Table 4.27
Relative affordability of renting options .............................................................. 92
Table 4.28
Older persons’ housing options ......................................................................... 94
Table 4.29
Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years ............................................ 95
Table 4.30
Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years ................................. 95
Table 4.31
Client groups accommodated in affordable/social rented sector in South
Lakeland District 2010/11 to 2012/13................................................................. 96
Table 4.32
Homeless decisions and acceptances 2009/10 to 2012/13.............................. 100
Table 5.1
Views on occupancy restrictions by market area ............................................. 106
Table 5.2
Reasons for occupancy restrictions ................................................................. 107
Table 5.3
Origin of residents moving into newbuild/converted dwellings ......................... 108
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 3.1
House prices 1996 to 2012: South Lakeland District, county and national
trends ................................................................................................................ 40
Figure 3.2
Net flows of population between Barrow in Furness Borough and other areas
July 2008 to June 2011...................................................................................... 43
Figure 3.3
Commuting flows between South Lakeland District and other areas .................. 49
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Figure 4.1
Property type by sub-area ................................................................................. 56
Figure 4.2
Property size by sub-area .................................................................................. 57
Figure 4.3
South Lakeland District tenure profile ................................................................ 59
Figure 4.4
South Lakeland tenure profile by market area ................................................... 60
Figure 4.5
Types of household intending to move in the open market in the next five
years across the South Lakeland area............................................................... 79
LIST OF MAPS
Map 1.1
South Lakeland District Geography ....................................................................... 20
Map 3.1
Lower Quartile house prices in 2012-13 ................................................................ 41
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Please note that in this report some of the tables include
rounded figures. This can result in some column or row
totals not adding up to 100 or to the anticipated row or
column ‘total’ due to the use of rounded decimal figures. We
include this description here as it covers all tables and
associated textual commentary included. If tables or figures
are to be used in-house then we recommend the addition of
a similarly worded statement being included as a note to
each table used.
arc4 Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for, and makes no representation or warranty with
respect to, the accuracy or completeness of any third party information (including data) that is contained
in this document.
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Executive Summary
Introduction
arc4 was commissioned in July 2013 to prepare an update of the 2010 Strategic
Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for South Lakeland District. The study provides
data required under the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and by National
Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) which came into effect in February 2014 and
replaces Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance (version 2, 2007) and
Identifying Sub-regional Housing Market Areas (2007) Guidance.
The study has been carried out by arc4 Ltd and has included:

An updated analysis of the household survey carried out as part of the 2011
SHMA which was completed by 4,363 households and achieved a 26%
response rate;

An online survey and interviews with stakeholders; and

A review of existing data;
The findings from the study will provide a robust and defensible evidence base for
future policy development which takes account of the National Planning Practice
Guidance. To ensure consistency with the previous study, the final report is structured
in a similar style to the 2011 SHMA but includes a new section on Objectively Assessed
Need.
HOUSING MARKET CONTEXT
South Lakeland District is located in the South East of Cumbria in the North West of
England. The District is split into three Local Planning Authorities, with 77.7% of
households living in South Lakeland, 19% living in the Lake District National Park
Authority area and 3.2% living in the Yorkshire Dales National Park. The District is
predominantly rural in character, although 27.6% of households live in Kendal and
11.6% in Ulverston.
South Lakeland is a popular place to live. A key housing market driver is in-migration
and of households moving in the past five years, 33.7% have moved into the District.
HOUSE PRICES
Median house prices across South Lakeland District have increased dramatically over
the period 2000 to 2013, from around £74,000 in Q1 2000 to £210,000 in 2013,
representing an increase of 183.7%. In 2012, South Lakeland had the highest lower
quartile price of all districts in the North West.
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DWELLING STOCK
According to the 2011 Census there were a total of 53,422 dwellings across South
Lakeland District and a total of 46,522 households. According to the 2013 Council Tax
register there are 52,389 dwellings and of this number 1,738 are vacant. Data on
second homes is now no longer available from Council Tax but the 2011 SHMA
reported around 5,000 second/holiday homes and the 2011 census reported that 8,628
residents (not households) had second/holiday homes in South Lakeland.
This study assumes a total of 52,389 dwellings (based on 2014 Council Tax data) and a
total of 46,522 households (based on 2011 Census data).
Overall, across South Lakeland:

73.0% of properties are owner-occupied, 16.1% are privately rented and 10.9%
are affordable (social/Affordable Rent and intermediate tenure). This compares
with regional figures of 64.5% for owner occupation, 18.8% affordable tenures
and 16.7% private renting. The private rented sector has an important role to
play in accommodating households in some of the highest priced areas of the
District. The household survey indicates that 26.4% of all households in Central
Lakes Rural rent privately, along with 25% in Kirkby Lonsdale and 22% in
Windermere;

72.3% of properties are houses, 14.6% bungalows, 12.6% are flats/maisonettes,
and 0.7% are other property types (e.g. caravans);

42.1% of properties were built before 1945, a further 37.8% were built between
1945 and 1984 and the remaining 20.2% have been built since 1985;

7.5% of households are dissatisfied with state of repair, with households who
rent most likely to express dissatisfaction (13.5% of affordable/social renters
expressed dissatisfaction along with 13.3% of private renters)
DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS
The population of South Lakeland is estimated to be 103,700 1 with Office for National
Statistics (ONS) projections showing an increase to 104,825 by 2021. A range of
models suggest that the total number of households in South Lakeland is expected to
increase. POPGROUP (released in February 2014) suggests that over the period 2012
to 2032, the total number of households is expected to increase at an annual rate of
between 6 and 530.
Over the next few decades, the age profile of residents in South Lakeland District is
expected to change dramatically. There will be a significant ‘demographic shift’ with
both the number and proportion of older people increasing. Overall the number of
people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 23.7% (or by 6,005) by 2021; and
the number of 85+ residents is expected to increase by 28.3% (or by 2,097) by 2021.
1
ONS 2011 census
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ECONOMIC DRIVERS
Across South Lakeland, 33.4% of households have a gross income of the head of
household and partner (if applicable) of less than £300 each week. A further 27%
receive between £300 and £500 each week and 39.6% receive £500 each week or
more.
80.2% of economically active residents live and work within South Lakeland District and
19.8% work outside the District, particularly Barrow in Furness District (8.4%) and
Lancaster District (3.6%).
MARKET AREAS
The Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) suggests that a housing
market is self-contained if upwards of 70% of moves (migration and travel to work) take
place within a defined area. An analysis of migration data suggests that 66.3% of
households move within the District. In terms of travel to work patterns, 80.2% of
residents work in the District and 19.8% commute out to work.
On the basis of travel to work, data South Lakeland is self-contained but given the scale
of in-migration, the District cannot be described as self-contained but part of a wider
market driven particularly by longer-distance migration
Within South Lakeland, none of the sub-areas can be defined as self-contained.
However, in Kendal, 72.2% of people in employment work in the town and 57.6% of
movers originated from within Kendal.
Objectively assessed need for housing
SHMAs need to identify the scale of housing needed to meet household and population
projections over the plan period.
The Core Strategy has made provision for 400 additional dwellings over the period to
2025.
It is proposed that the Objectively Assessed Need for housing across South Lakeland
District is based on household growth of between 208 (CLG household projections to
2021) and 530 (POPGROUP Labour Force forecast). This equates to between 218 and
607 dwellings. A 400 target is roughly the mid-point of these two dwelling estimates.
Ultimately, the actual scale of housing delivery will be influenced by a range of factors
and the Core Strategy provides a broad framework within which future development can
be positioned.
Affodable housing requirements
Housing need can be defined as ‘the quantity of housing required for households who
are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. A key element of
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the study is to explore the scale of housing need and the extent to which additional
affordable housing is needed.
Affordable housing is defined as either social/affordable rented or intermediate housing
which is provided and made available to eligible households (i.e. those who lack their
own housing or live in unsuitable housing) who cannot afford to meet their needs
through the market. Intermediate affordable housing is housing at prices and rents
above those of social rents, but below market prices or rents.
The scale of affordable requirements has been assessed by taking into account the
annual need from existing and newly-forming households within the District and
comparing this with the supply of affordable (social/affordable rent and intermediate
tenure dwellings). The 2011 SHMA identified a net shortfall of 640 affordable dwellings.
The 2014 SHMA update reports a total annual net shortfall of 687 affordable dwellings.
This is despite an extensive and ongoing programme of affordable delivery and
emphasises the increasing disparity between local house prices and the ability of
households in need to buy or rent them. This figure is a measure of the extent to which
the requirement for affordable housing is greater than the current supply and should not
be seen as a target for delivery. Table ES1 provides a summary of annual affordable
shortfalls by housing market area.
In terms of the split between social rented and intermediate tenure products, the
household survey identified tenure preferences of existing and newly-forming
households and what households could afford. There was a strong preference for
intermediate tenure products (including shared ownership, shared equity, low cost
home ownership, rent to buy and intermediate rent), with 46% preferring
affordable/social rented and 54% preferring intermediate tenure products. The Council
could consider the 50/50 tenure split policy on a regular basis to ensure that this
continues to reflect evidence of need and issues around viability.
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Table ES1 Net annual affordable housing requirements by sub-area, market area,
property size and designation (general needs/older person) 2014/15 to 2018/19
Housing market area
General
Older
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal Rural
Ulverston and Furness
Total
Local Planning Authority
Smaller 1/2
Larger 3+
bedroom
bedroom
51
16
42
-9
21
1
111
47
100
53
101
75
425
182
General
1/2
bedrooom
TOTAL
5
71
23
56
4
26
6
164
33
186
9
185
80
687
Older
LDNP
YDNP
SLDC
Total
Smaller 1/2
bedroom
42
21
362
425
1/2
bedrooom
23
4
53
80
Larger 3+
bedroom
-9
1
190
182
TOTAL
56
26
605
687
Note: Minus figures indicate there is sufficient supply relative to demand
MARKET DEMAND
Households intending to move in the open market were asked what type and size of
property they would like and expect to move to. Of households moving, most would like
to move to a house (72.8%), 19.0% would like to move to a bungalow and 8.2% to
move to a flat. This compares with 71.5% who expect to move to a house, 15.7% to a
bungalow and 12.4% to a flat. A much higher proportion would like to move to a
detached house (52.0%) but 27.3% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to
move to a semi-detached house (25.1%) than would prefer to (14.1%).
In terms of property size, the majority of respondents expect to move to a property with
two (29.3%), three (45.8%) or four or more (19.1%) bedrooms. A higher proportion of
households would like a property with four or more bedrooms (29.3%).
Newly-forming households tend to move to terraced houses/cottages (39%) and
flats/apartments (24.8%); and properties with two (50%) and three (36.5%) bedrooms.
Using household survey data, it is possible to ascertain market demand (as measured
by the aspirations from existing households, newly-forming households and in-migrant
households). This can then be reconciled with the likely supply based on turnover rates
in the preceding five years. Table ES2 shows the where there are imbalances in the
provision of general market accommodation relative to expectations
In summary, analysis of general market supply and demand suggests that the open
market is generally balanced at District level, although there are some specific
imbalances which include:
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
An overall shortfall in Central Lakes, Dales and Kendal Rural market
areas; and across Ambleside, Cartmel Peninsula Rural, Grange over
Sands, Kirkby Lonsdale, Milnthorpe and Ulverston.

Varying shortfalls in dwelling types and sizes across the District.
Older people, adpatations and general support
Addressing the accommodation requirements of older people is going to become a
major strategic challenge for South Lakeland District over the next few decades, with
the number of residents aged 65 or over expected to increase.
The vast majority of older people (73.5%) want to continue to live in their current home
with support when needed. A further 21.7% are considering buying on the open
market, 17.8% would consider buying/renting sheltered accommodation and 12.5%
would consider renting/buying extra care housing. This evidence points to the need to
diversify older persons’ provision within the District.
More insulation, better heating and double glazing are the most mentioned adaptations
to existing property required by households (with just over 10% of households
mentioning these adaptations). 21.8% of households require help repair/maintenance
either now or in the next five years, 20% help with gardening and 15.5% help with
cleaning the home.
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Table ES2
Review of general market supply and demand by key service centre
Property
type
Property
size
Tenure
Cartmel Grange
Peninsula over
Rural
Sands
Tenure
Property
size
Property
type
Tenure
Property
size
Sedbergh
Total
Owner Occupied
Private Rented
One
Two
Three
Four or more
Detached Hse
Semi Det Hse
Terraced Hse
Flat (inc bedsits)
Bungalow
Kendal
Property
type
Central
Lakes
Ambleside Windermere Rural
Total
Owner Occupied
Private Rented
One
Two
Three
Four or more
Detached Hse
Semi Det Hse
Terraced Hse
Flat (inc bedsits)
Bungalow
1.4
1.2
1.8
2.1
1.5
1.5
0.7
1.3
2.6
3.3
0.9
Kirkby
Furness
Lonsdale Milnthorpe Kendal Rural Ulverston Rural
Total
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Cartmel Central
Peninsula Lakes
Total
1.2
1.0
Owner Occupied
1.0
0.7
Private Rented
1.8
0.7
One
0.7
0.7
Two
1.3
0.7
Three
1.1
0.8
Four or more
1.0
1.0
Detached Hse
0.9
0.5
Semi Det Hse
1.3
0.7
Terraced Hse
1.4
1.2
Flat (inc bedsits)
2.2
2.4
Bungalow
0.8
0.7
<0.5
0.5 - <1
1>
Dales
0.9
0.7
1.5
2.1
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.5
0.7
2.5
1.8
0.7
Kendal
1.4
1.2
1.8
9.3
1.5
1.5
0.7
0.5
1.3
2.6
3.3
0.9
Ulverston
Kendal
and
Rural
Furness
0.9
1.1
0.7
1.1
1.7
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.7
1.4
1.5
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.6
1.3
1.4
0.7
1.4
2.5
2.5
1.2
1.2
Total
1.1
1.1
1.5
0.7
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.6
1.3
1.6
2.3
0.9
Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock
Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock
Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied
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1. Introduction
Background and methodology
1.1
arc4 was commissioned in July 2013 to prepare an update of the 2010 Strategic
Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for South Lakeland District. The study
provides data required under the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and
by National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) which came into effect in
February 2014 and replaces Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance
(version 2, 2007) and Identifying Sub-regional Housing Market Areas (2007)
Guidance.
1.2
The outputs of this update comply with the requirements of NPPF and NPPG and
particularly focuses on the following core areas: a review of housing markets, an
assessment of housing need and affordable requirements; a review of market
requirements; and a review of Objectively Assessed Housing.
NPPF requirements
1.3
1.4
Local planning policies need to be grounded in robust and transparent evidence
and key components of the evidence base include: a Strategic Housing Market
Assessment and a Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. The SHMA
should assess and identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures
the local population is likely to need over the Local Plan period which:

Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and
demographic change;

Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and
the needs of different groups in the community (such as families with children,
older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to
build their own homes); and

Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to
meet this demand.
This report provides the first key piece of evidence to underpin planning policy,
namely a SHMA which:

Provides evidence to help the local authority plan for a mix of housing based
on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of
different groups in the community (such as families with children, older
people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build
their own homes);

Identifies the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in
particular locations, reflecting local demand; and

Identifies affordable housing requirements.
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Definitions
1.5
A series of terms are used in work of this nature and to avoid ambiguities, these
terms are now clearly defined. The NPPG defines need for housing as ‘the scale
and mix of housing and the range of tenures that is likely to be needed in the
housing market area over the plan period – [and] should cater for the housing
demand of the area and identify the scale of housing supply necessary to meet
that demand’2. From this we define the key terms of reference as:
Housing demand is the objectively assessed quantity of housing that
households are willing and able to buy or rent;
Housing need is the objectively assessed quantity of housing required for
households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial
assistance;
Housing markets are geographical areas defined by objectively assessed
household demand and preferences for housing. They reflect the key functional
linkages between places where people live and work.
1.6
Definitions relating to affordable housing have been revised in the National
Planning Policy Framework (March 2012):

Affordable housing: Social rented, Affordable Rented and intermediate
housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the
market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house
prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an
affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be
recycled for alternative affordable housing provision.

Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private Registered
Providers (as defined in Section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act
2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national
rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under
equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local
authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency.

Affordable rented housing is let by local authorities or private Registered
Providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented
housing. Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no
more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where
applicable).

Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above
social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable
Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared
2
The approach to assessing need Para 003 [ID: 2a-003-20140306], NPPG, March 2014.
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ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate
rent, but not Affordable Rented housing. Homes that do not meet the above
definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing, may not
be considered as affordable housing for planning.
1.7
Please note that this report refers to traditional social rented housing stock as
social/affordable rented housing.
SHMA Guidance
1.8
In August 2007, the CLG published Strategic Housing Market Assessments:
Practice Guidance Version 2. Although this has been superseded by the NPPG,
this guidance provides a useful structure for presenting SHMA data and Table
1.1 shows the core outputs which were required under the former SHMA
guidance and help to shape the outputs of this report.
Table 1.1
Strategic Housing Market Assessment core outputs
Strategic Housing Market Assessment core outputs
1
Estimate of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure.
2
Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply
and demand in different housing sectors and price/affordability. Description of key
drivers underpinning the housing market.
3
Estimate of total future number of households, broken down by age and type where
possible.
4
Estimate of current number of households in housing need.
5
Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing.
6
Estimate of future households requiring market housing.
7
Estimate of the size of affordable housing required.
8
Estimate of household groups who have particular housing requirements including:
families, older people, key workers, black and minority ethnic groups, disabled people,
young people, Gypsies and Travellers.
NPPF requirements
1.9
Local planning policies need to be grounded in robust and transparent evidence
and key components of the evidence base include: a Strategic Housing Market
Assessment and a Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. The SHMA
should assess and identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures
the local population is likely to need over the Local Plan period which:
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1.10

Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and
demographic change;

Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and
the needs of different groups in the community (such as families with children,
older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to
build their own homes); and

Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to
meet this demand.
This report provides the first key piece of evidence to underpin planning policy,
namely a SHMA which delivers the core outputs required through CLG SHMA
guidance. Specifically, this research provides:

Evidence for local authorities to help them plan for a mix of housing based on
current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of
different groups in the community (such as families with children, older
people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build
their own homes);

Identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in
particular locations, reflecting local demand; and

Identified affordable housing requirements.
Research methodology
1.11
The preparation of the South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA update has involved
developers/builders, Housing Association representatives, estate agents and
private lettings agents.
1.12
To deliver the SHMA, a multi-method approach was adopted, which comprised:

An analysis of updated household survey data which has been reweighted to
take account of 2011 census household and tenure profiles across each of
the Key Service Centres of South Lakeland. The original household survey
across South Lakeland was carried out in June 2011, with a sample survey in
most key service centre areas and 100% surveying in the smallest key service
centres of Milnthorpe and Kirkby Stephen. A total of 16,766 households were
contacted and 4,363 questionnaires were returned and used in data analysis.
This represents a 26% response rate overall and total number of
questionnaires returned was well in excess of the 1,500 specified in
Government guidance;

Stakeholders were invited to participate in an on-line survey to help ascertain
their views on the current housing market and the key strategic housing
issues for South Lakeland District. Some telephone interviews were also
undertaken. Engagement with key stakeholders including Local Housing and
Planning Authority representatives, Registered Social Landlords/Registered
Providers (RPs), estate agents, lettings agents, developers and Supporting
People representatives has taken place.
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
A review of relevant secondary data including the 2011 census, house price
trends, CORE lettings data and 2011-based population and household
projections prepared by Cumbria County Council.
Geography
1.13 Map 1.1 illustrates South Lakeland and the location of the main urban
settlements, principal roads and the boundaries of the main market areas and
key service centres of the District. Appendix I presents further detailed maps
showing Parishes and Wards within the District. For planning purposes, South
Lakeland District is split between three Local Planning Authorities: the Lake
District National Park, the Yorkshire Dales National Park and South Lakeland
District (see Appendix A for further details).
1.14 Table 1.3 summarises the constituent Parishes for the five Housing Market
Areas of South Lakeland which have been defined in previous county-level
SHMA research. Using the dataset prepared as part of this SHMA, data can be
prepared for any of the geographies listed in Table 1.3. For the purposes of this
report, data are presented for the twelve key service centres listed in Table 1.3.
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
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Table 1.3
South Lakeland District Housing Market Areas, Key Service Centres and
constituent parishes
Market
Areas
Cartmel
Peninsula
Central
Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal
Rural
Ulverston
and
Furness
Key Service
Centres
Cartmel
Peninsula Rural
Grange Over
Sands
Ambleside
Windermere
Constituent Parishes:
Lower Allithwaite, Broughton East, Cartmel Fell,
Haverthwaite, Lower Holker, Staveley in Cartmel
Grange Over Sands
Ambleside, Troutbeck
Windermere
Central Lakes
Rural
Blawith and Subberthwaite, Claife, Colton, Coniston, Crook,
Grasmere, Hawkshead, Langdale, Kentmere, Rydal,
Satterthwaite, Skelwith, Staveley with Ings, Torver
Sedbergh
Kendal
Kirkby Lonsdale
Milnthorpe
Sedbergh, Dent, Garsdale, Middleton
Kendal
Kirkby Lonsdale, Barbon, Casterton
Milnthorpe
Kendal Rural
Arnside, Beetham, Burneside, Burton in Kendal,
Crosthwaite and Lyth, Firbank, Grayrigg, Helsington,
Heversham, Hincaster, Holme, Hutton Roof, Killington,
Levens, Longsleddale, Lupton, Mansergh, Meathop and
Ulpha, Natland, New Hutton, Old Hutton and Holmescales,
Preston Patrick & Richard, Sedgewick, Skelsmergh and
Scalthwaiterigg, Stainton, Underbarrow and Bradleyfield,
Whinfell, Whitwell and Selside, Witherslack, Upper
Allithwaite
Ulverston
Furness Rural
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
Ulverston
Aldingham, Duddon, Egton with Newland, Kirkby Ireleth,
Lowick, Pennington, Urswick
19
Map 1.1
South Lakeland District Geography
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Report structure
1.15
The South Lakeland 2014 SHMA update is structured as follows:

Chapter 2 reviews the national and regional policy context within which the
research needs to be positioned;

Chapter 3 considers the South Lakeland housing market context, in
particular linkages with other localities in Cumbria and elsewhere. This is
achieved by reviewing migration and travel to work patterns;

Chapter 4 presents SHMA core outputs and summarises more detailed
information presented in technical appendices accompanying this report;

Chapter 5 considers NPPF requirements and establishes an objectively
assessed need for housing figure for South Lakeland District; and

Chapter 6 concludes the report with a view on the current and future housing
market and strategic issues.
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2.
Policy and strategic review
Introduction
2.1
Since May 2010 there has been a radical and sustained, Government-led
programme of reform of both national housing and planning policy, set within
the context of national austerity. At a time of significant reductions in public
sector spending, these reforms champion localism and decentralisation.
2.2
Removal of the regional tier of government and its related strategies, structures
and funding mechanisms, created a policy vacuum which local strategists and
planners are addressing within the context of the Government’s planning and
social housing reform agenda. With an ambitious programme of policy reform
well underway, this is a time of significant change for local strategic housing
and planning authorities. This section of the report briefly summarises some of
the key changes within the national and local policy context.
National policy
2.3
There are some core cross-cutting themes that run through the Government’s
strategic policy context which need to be considered, these include:
 Deficit reduction;
 Economic growth;
 Carbon reduction and tackling climate change; and
 Empowering people and communities.
Deficit reduction
2.4
The Government’s main priority is to reduce the national budget deficit. This
prime objective influences the way in which all other priorities are tackled.
Deficit reduction is central to the expectation that the private sector and local
communities will deliver in place of the public sector.
2.5
Housing is seen by Government as key to creating and sustaining local
communities. It contributes to the economy and supports economic growth and
employment, both directly and indirectly.
Economic growth
2.6
The strategic housing role for local authorities has evolved over the past
decade beyond focussing primarily on the delivery and maintenance of social
housing; it is now much more about working for the benefit of communities
through understanding, shaping and responding to wider housing markets and
trends impacting upon them. In practice this has led to a greater understanding
of economic drivers and how these impact upon local and regional housing
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markets. Consequently, the requisite strategic role for housing now focuses on
supporting economic growth, as well as that of supporting social and
environmental well-being.
2.7
2.8
The Government is seeking to deliver a nationally sustainable and resilient
economy that is rebalanced across regions and sectors (public, private,
voluntary and community). Housing’s contribution to the economy is generally
considered in terms of supply:

The provision of new homes in an area to accommodate new workers, and
so bring new inward investment; and

The creation of employment opportunities through the construction industry.
However, the relationship is more complex with the contribution of housing
being far greater. Ideally local strategic policies should emphasise these links
and ensure a good ‘fit’ with Local Economic Partnerships (LEPs) and
associated investment plans.
Carbon reduction and tackling climate change
2.9
Targets set by the previous Government in the 2008 Climate Change Act
remain (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 34% by 2020 and by 80% by
2050). Housing has a strong role to play in helping meet these targets, not least
in terms of improving the energy efficiency of existing housing stock. This is a
significant issue in areas where there are concentrations of older terraced
properties and housing stock in poor condition, and where improvement is
uneconomical. Trying to deliver the Government’s Green Deal in these areas
will be a priority.
Empowering people and communities
2.10 Since its inception the Government has stressed its commitment to
decentralisation and localism, and its ‘Programme for Government’ set the
scene for a radical devolution of power to local authorities and community
groups; central to this has been the Localism Act. The Act included measures
to reform the planning system, social housing and the council house finance
system. It provided:

New freedoms and flexibilities for local government;

New rights for individuals;

Reform to make the planning system more democratic and effective; and

Reform to ensure that decisions about housing are taken locally.
2.11 The Act introduced most elements of the Government’s housing reform
programme, including changes to homelessness, social housing tenancies
(introduction of five year minimum tenancy), mobility, regulation, and access to
the Ombudsman. The Act also reformed council housing finance.
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National Housing Strategy
2.12 Within this broad strategic context the Government has sought to develop
specific priorities for housing. The Department for Communities and Local
Government states that it is ‘helping local councils and developers work with
local communities to plan and build better places to live for everyone. This
includes building affordable housing, improving the quality of rented housing,
helping more people to buy a home, and providing housing support for
vulnerable people.’3
2.13 The Government has four policies for housing:

Providing housing support for older and vulnerable people;

Increasing the number of available homes;

Helping people to buy a home; and

Improving the rented housing sector.
2.14 In 2011 the Government published its Housing Strategy for England, Laying the
Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England, which set out its ‘intended
direction of travel for housing, its role in the wider economy and its contribution
to social mobility’. The Strategy sets out ideas on the shape of housing
provision that the Government wants to see, which involve the primacy of home
ownership; social housing as welfare; and an increasing role for the private
rented sector.’4
2.15 The Strategy presented both existing initiatives and policies and introduced a
series of new interventions and approaches, along the following themes:

Increasing supply, more homes, stable growth;

Social and affordable housing reform;

A thriving private rented sector;

A strategy for empty homes;

Quality of housing experience and support; and

Quality, sustainability and design.
2.16 Whilst these themes provide a useful framework for reviewing the current
national policy position.
Increasing supply, more homes, stable growth
2.17 To encourage housing growth specifically the Local Growth White Paper
introduced the New Homes Bonus, to incentivise housing growth and increase
supply. The scheme commenced in April 2011 and is now a permanent feature
of the local government finance system. However, since 2013 any allocated
new homes bonus has been deducted from a local authority’s general support
grant from Government, so, in effect, this ceases to be an additional resource
3
https://www.gov.uk/government/topics/housing
4
CIH Summary Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England November 2011
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available to local authorities; it should also be noted that the new homes bonus
is not ring-fenced for housing provision.
2.18 The Affordable Rent Model was introduced to utilise capital investment
alongside resources raised through tenancies offered to new social rented
tenants at 80% of market rents. Where this combination of higher rent and
lower grant is insufficient to make new schemes viable, existing social rent
tenancies are converted to affordable rent (or intermediate tenure for sale)
when properties are vacated, to cross-subsidise new provision.
2.19 Despite this investment, levels of housing supply have continued to struggle,
with development levels reaching all-time lows. Confirming the role of housing
growth in the economic recovery, the Government introduced a series of
measures aimed at increasing housing supply, including planning reform, the
National Planning Policy Framework and various housing growth measures.
Planning reform
2.20 The Government perceives Planning as acting as a brake on the delivery of
new housing supply. To this end a fundamental review of planning policy was
undertaken culminating in the introduction of the National Planning Policy
Framework. In addition to this, other planning related measures have been
announced aimed at facilitating housing development on stalled sites in the
short term.
2.21 The National Planning Policy Framework was published on 27th March 2012
and came into effect on the same day, revoking Planning Policy Statement 3
Housing, which had previously formed the basis for housing planning policy. As
part of its commitment to economic growth, localism and decentralisation, the
Government has used the Framework to streamline all existing national policy
documents into one short Policy Framework.
2.22 The Framework stresses the need for councils to work with communities and
businesses to seek opportunities for sustainable growth to rebuild the economy;
helping to deliver the homes, jobs, and infrastructure needed for a growing
population whilst protecting the environment. A presumption in favour of
sustainable development means that proposals should be approved promptly
unless they compromise the twelve sustainable development principles set out
in the Framework.
2.23 The Framework identifies three dimensions to sustainable development:
economic, social and environmental. These three dimensions (or roles) are
seen as mutually dependent.
2.24 The Framework must be taken into account in the preparation of local and
neighbourhood plans, and it is a material consideration in decision making.
2.25 New definitions of affordable housing were also included in the Framework
covering social housing, affordable rented housing and intermediate housing.
2.26 In December 2012 the Taylor Review reported on its review of planning
guidance; the Review made a series of recommendations aimed at making the
guidance more streamlined and accessible. The Review culminated in the
publication for consultation in August 2013 of a temporary web based tool
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providing online guidance. The final version of the online guidance is
anticipated imminently, at which point all current planning guidance will be
cancelled.
2.27 The September 2012 housing and growth announcements emphasised the
Government’s continued concerns that planning acts as a barrier to
development. The package of measures aimed at removing this perceived
barrier included:
 Fast tracking big commercial and residential applications, in poor performing
council areas developers can choose to bypass the local authority for major
decisions. Applications can be made directly to the Secretary of State who
will appoint a Planning Inspector to consider the application;
 More transparent reporting of local authority performance on planning;
 Increased use of Planning Performance Agreements, committing applicants
and planning authorities to a timetable for determination;
 Consultation on simplifying and increasing permitted development rights –
changes were effected in April 2013;
 Additional time (12 months) for developers to get sites up and running before
planning permission expires;
 Enabling developers to renegotiate Section 106 agreements (this was
enacted in the Growth and Infrastructure Act 2013)5; and
 Investing £200 million in private rented housing to deliver 5,000 homes
through provision of loans or equity to provide project finance. This is in
direct response to the Montague Review recommendations (see below),
including establishing a Task Force to bring together developers, institutional
investors and management bodies.
Social and affordable housing reform
2.28 Access to housing has been a key focus of the Government’s social housing
reform agenda. The Government initially set out its key objectives for social
housing reform, and its proposals to achieve them, in a consultation paper
‘Local Decisions: a fairer future for social housing’. The five key objectives of
social housing reform being:

Localism, fairness and focusing social housing on those most in need in a
way that enables them to use it as a springboard to opportunity;

That social housing is flexible and available to more people and to those
that genuinely need it;
5
On 25th April 2013 the Growth and Infrastructure Act gained royal assent. The Act introduced reforms aimed at
reducing bureaucracy in order to encourage business investment, housing development, new infrastructure and
job creation to enhance national economic performance. The Act provides a mechanism for developers to
renegotiate affordable housing Section 106 agreements on stalled sites; it also reduces the amount of material
required for submission with a planning application.
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
To make the best use of the four million social rented homes;

To increase the freedoms available to all social landlords to determine the
type of tenancy they grant to new tenants; and

To protect the rights of existing tenants.
2.29 Proposals to achieve these objectives included:

The introduction of a new, more flexible, local authority affordable rent
tenancy with a minimum fixed term of five years (this will be in addition to
secure and introductory tenancies);

Investment of £100million to bring empty properties into use as affordable
housing;

Reforming the social housing allocations system by giving local authorities
the powers to manage their housing waiting lists;

Introduction of a nationwide social home swap programme for social
tenants;

Enabling local authorities to fully discharge a homelessness duty to secure
accommodation by arranging an offer of suitable accommodation in the
private rented sector without requiring the applicant’s agreement;

Introducing reforms to tackle overcrowding; and

Replacing the Housing Revenue Account subsidy system with transparent
self-financing arrangements.
2.30 Where appropriate, reforms were enacted in the 2011 Localism Act and
generally came into effect in April 2012.
2.31 Alongside social housing reform sit reforms to the welfare system, which, with
changes to benefit, eligibility and entitlement, will impact significantly on
housing supply and demand. The Welfare Reform Act received Royal Assent
on 8th March 2012; it introduced Universal Credit as well as changes to housing
benefit and other welfare benefits. The Act also introduced a new ‘personal
independence payment’ to replace the existing disability living allowance.
2.32 In addition, the Welfare Reform Act gave the Government powers to implement
housing benefit reforms outlined in the June 2010 Budget and the October 2010
Comprehensive Spending Review, including:

Introducing a size criteria to the calculation of housing benefit for social
sector tenants;

Up-rating future Local Housing Allowance rates in line with Consumer Price
Index rather than actual rents; and

Introducing household benefit caps of £500 per week for couples and £350
per week for single claimants.
A thriving private rented sector
2.33 The Government sees the private rented sector as playing a vital role in
meeting housing needs and supporting economic growth. Rapid growth in the
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sector over recent years has seen a significant number of people making long
term family homes in the sector. To help grow capacity in this sector the
Government commissioned Sir Adrian Montague to ‘Review the barriers to
institutional investment in private rented homes’ (2012). The Review made a
number of recommendations aimed at attracting large-scale institutional
investors into the sector to develop ‘build to let’ homes. The recommendations
included:

Local authorities using flexibilities within the planning system to plan for and
enable the development of private rented homes where there is an
identified need;

The Government releasing public sector land to facilitate delivery of private
rented housing developments;

Developing a body of good practice and facilitating the swift development of
demonstration projects, a need was therefore identified for the Government
to provide targeted incentives to stimulate the development of new
business models;

The Government establishing a dedicated Task Force to act as an enabler;
and

Developing a ‘new sense of identity’ for the ‘build to let’ product, with the
Housing Task Force working with other industry bodies to develop voluntary
standards to be adopted across the build to let sector.
2.34 The Government has responded by increasing investment available to develop
the sector further (see resources below).
A strategy for empty homes
2.35 The Government’s initial £100million 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review
commitment to bring empty homes back into use, together with entitlement to
new homes bonus, firmly established work on empty properties as a strategic
priority – there being a need for empty homes strategies to be developed and
supported. Resources to further aid empty homes work were announced as
part of the September Growth Package in 2012.
Quality of housing experience and support
2.36 The Government has prioritised the provision of housing and support to help
older, vulnerable or disadvantaged people:
‘Many older, vulnerable or disadvantaged people experience crises that affect
their health and wellbeing. They need housing support to help them lead full
and active lives. A home should help people be independent and give them the
security to be active members of their communities.’6
2.37 The means through which assistance is available are:

6
Disabled Facilities Grant allocations; and
www.communities.gov.uk/housing/olderpeople/
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
Supporting People.
2.38 The draft Care and Support Bill follows the Law Commission’s review of care
legislation, which concluded that current legislation is too complex. Together
with the White Paper ‘Caring for our future: reforming care and support’, the Bill
addresses this issue and attempts to simplify it. The Bill aims to:

Modernise law around people’s needs, promoting the wellbeing of the
individual;

Clarify people’s entitlements, so they know what help they can receive and
where to go to get it, enabling them to make plans for their futures;

Support the needs of local communities through access to information and
advice, promoting prevention and reducing dependency;

Simplify the system and give more flexibility to innovate and achieve better
results; and

Consolidate existing legislation with a single statute, supported by new
regulations and a single bank of good practice. 7
2.39 In terms of safeguarding vulnerable adults, housing has a strong role to play
alongside social services, health, the police and other agencies. The draft Care
and Support Bill sets out a new safeguarding power, and places a duty on local
authorities to respond to safeguarding concerns by making enquiries as
necessary to decide on whether, and what, action is needed.
2.40 The Bill also includes various proposals to support integrated working, including
a duty of cooperation and partnership between police, health and local
authorities. The Bill had its first and second readings in the House of Commons
and is currently at Committee stage.
2.41 From the April 1st 2013 Health and Wellbeing Boards, which include Directors of
Public Health, became statutory committees of local authorities. They are
responsible for encouraging integrated working on health and wellbeing issues,
including development of Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategies, and Joint
Strategic Needs Assessments.
Older people
2.42 In addition to Disabled Facilities Grants and Supporting People programmes
the Government flags the following work currently being undertaken to help
older people live at home longer:

Research has been commissioned into Lifetime neighbourhoods;

Home Improvement Agencies are in place to help private tenants and home
owners advising on potential improvements and adaptations to their home;

Handypersons schemes;
7
Chartered Institute of Housing member briefing and request for feedback September 2012 Shaping
Housing and Community Agendas
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
FirstStop, free and independent national information and advice service;
and

The Housing Learning and Improvement Network knowledge hub.
2.43 In January 2012 the Government announced a new deal for older people to
help them continue living independently, this included £51million for Home
Improvement Agencies to provide:

Housing advice, including help to move to more suitable accommodation if
needed;

Handyperson services, including small home repairs, home safety and
security adaptations;

Energy efficiency advice; and

Arranging for adaptations and home repairs.8
2.44 An additional £20 million for Disabled Facilities Grants was also announced.
2.45 In September 2012 the care services minister announced an extra £100 million
to fund specialist housing for older people. The fund is designed to stimulate
the market in specialised housing, and the additional £100million takes the
capital grant fund total to £300million, which aims to provide up to 9,000
specialist new homes for older people to move into.
Homelessness
2.46 In August 2012 the Government published its Homelessness Strategy, ‘Making
every contact count: A joint approach to preventing homelessness’. The
Strategy focuses on prevention and aims to ‘make sure that every contact local
agencies make with vulnerable people and families really counts.’9
2.47 The report identifies ten local challenges that need to be addressed by local
authorities, these are:

Adopt a corporate commitment to prevent homelessness which has buy-in
across all local authority services;

Actively work in partnership with voluntary sector and other local partners to
address support, education, employment and training needs;

Offer a Housing Options prevention service, including written advice to all
clients;

Adopt a no second night out model or an effective local alternative;

Have housing pathways agreed, or in development, with each key partner
and client group, which include appropriate accommodation and support;

Develop a suitable private rented sector offer for all client groups, including
advice and support to all clients and landlords;
8
www.communities.gok.uk
9
CLG Making every contact count Aug 2012 page 3
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
Actively engage in preventing mortgage repossessions including through
the Mortgage Rescue Scheme;

Have a Homelessness Strategy which sets out a proactive approach to
preventing homelessness and is reviewed annually so that it is responsive
to emerging needs;

Not place any young person aged 16 or 17 in Bed and Breakfast
accommodation; and

Not place any families in Bed and Breakfast accommodation unless in an
emergency, and then for no longer than six weeks.10
Quality, sustainability and design
2.48 The Government’s commitment to delivering Zero Carbon homes; along with
other binding carbon reduction targets agreed by the previous Government,
make energy efficiency and tackling fuel poverty key issues for housing
(especially as more than a quarter of emissions are produced in homes) 11.
Tackling energy efficiency in existing stock remains the sector’s biggest
challenge, and therefore means utilising the Green Deal is important.
2.49 Introduced by the Energy Act 2011, the Green Deal intends to revolutionise the
energy efficiency of properties across the county (both business and
residential). Launched in October 2012, with funding available from January
2013, the financial mechanisms under the Deal eliminate the need for
households to pay for energy efficiency improvements up front; instead the
costs of improvements are to be covered by savings in energy bills and through
a charge on household energy bills. The central rationale for the Green Deal is
to reduce carbon emissions cost effectively. However, take up nationally has so
far been poor.
2.50 The Act also introduced the Energy Company Obligation (ECO), which
integrated with the Green Deal to address energy efficiency improvements in
the housing sector. Recent concerns about high energy bills have, however,
seen ECO commitments significantly reduced.
National resources
2.51 The Government’s twin goals of deficit reduction and economic growth have
driven strategic policy and investment decisions since 2010. These decisions
have brought about a significant change in how, and to what, public investment
is made available. The 2013 Budget, Spending Review and Autumn Statement
represent a continuation of this approach, with investment being targeted at
measures to increase the supply of new homes (be they for private or
affordable rent) and increase access to home ownership.
2.52 The 2013 Budget announcement on 20th March made commitments to:
10
CLG Making every contact count Aug 2012 page 4
11
Chartered Institute of Housing The green agenda update 1st May 2012
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 The ‘Help to Buy’ scheme to facilitate access to home ownership. The
scheme included an extension of the First Buy scheme from first time buyers
to other groups – £3.5 billion was allocated to provide equity loans for people
to buy a new build home. It also introduced a new mortgage guarantee
scheme, which was made available in October 2013, to help those who want
to buy but cannot afford a deposit to access a mortgage. It is envisaged that
the scheme will support £130 billion of mortgages;
 A doubling of the Affordable Homes Programme, delivering an additional
£225 million to develop 15,000 additional homes by 2015; and
 The creation of a single Local Growth Fund to be allocated to LEPs.
2.53 The June 2013 Spending Round announced details of Government spending
for 2015/16, this included an additional £3 billion of funding for affordable
housing, and investment in Local Growth of approximately £2 billion.
2.54 On 27th June 2013 the Government announced details of its capital spending
plans for 2015 to 2020, these were accompanied by a document entitled
‘Building Britain’s Future’, which acknowledges that housing is ‘an integral part
of the UK’s economic and social infrastructure, supporting labour mobility and
providing a direct benefit to growth and jobs as new homes are built.’ Action
set out in ‘Building Britain’s Future’ aims to ‘revive the housing market, boost
construction and support families, developers and institutions to invest in new
homes.’ Some of the commitments related to housing, regeneration and growth
include:
 A guaranteed £300 billion of capital spending by 2020; of this £100 billion is
committed to existing projects with the focus being on housing, rail, roads,
energy and digital access - £5.1 billion is available for housing in 2015-2018;
 £3.3 billion capital funding was confirmed as being available for the
extension of the Affordable Homes Programme (2015-2018) to deliver
165,000 new affordable homes – the ambition is to support the delivery of
200,000 new affordable homes by 2019. Bids for funding are to be made on
a ‘something for something’ basis to encourage efficiency;
 A new Affordable Rent to Buy scheme to provide homes for rent that will be
sold on in the medium term, to this end £250 million is available in 2015-16
and £150 million in 2016-17;
 A five year supported housing fund of £300 million commits to the delivery of
2,500 new homes for older and disabled people;
 A reiterated commitment to the Help to Buy and Build to Rent schemes;
 A £160 million capital funding commitment for decent homes - nowhere to
have more than 10% non-decent stock by March 2016;
 The transfer of £2 billion to LEPs in 2015 through the Single Growth Fund; it
is anticipated that the same resource will be available annually to LEPs and
a commitment was made to provide LEPs with £20 billion by 2020. This
funding includes resources from housing, skills and transport programmes £400 million from the New Homes Bonus will be available to LEPs to support
strategic housing and economic development priorities;
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 A further strategic review of public land to identify sites that could be sold to
support local growth with the expectation that LEPs will maximise the use of
these land assets; and
 £102 million of loan and equity finance in 2015/16 to fund infrastructure that
will facilitate delivery of housing on large scale sites.
2.55 The Autumn Statement delivered on 5th December 2013 provided an update on
the Government’s future spending plans, including:
 An increase in local authority borrowing caps by £150 million in 2015/16 and
a further £150 million in 2016/17. It is intended that this increased borrowing
will support the development of 10,000 new affordable homes. This extra
borrowing capacity will form part of the Local Growth Fund, allowing
authorities who have an agreement with their LEP to bid for it. Bids are to be
prioritised on the basis of value for money and, to minimise the amount of
funding needed, the Government will expect bidders to contribute public
sector land and to sell high-value vacant stock;
 Recognising the role of LEPs in enabling new housing development through
changes to the local authority borrowing caps and plans to unlock stalled
sites;
 A commitment to retaining at least £55 million in discretionary housing
payments (DHPs) to support tenants affected by the bedroom tax in both
2014/15 and 2015/16. A further announcement on DHPs is anticipated;
 There will be a £1 billion programme over six years to unlock new large
housing sites. Beginning in 2014/15 on nine specified sites, the programme
intends to deliver 27,000 houses. £50 million of this resource is earmarked
for bids supported by LEPs;
 A consultation on a ‘Right to Move’ for tenants will be introduced, for those
needing to move for employment reasons;
 Right to Buy Agents are to be introduced to help applicants to complete the
purchase of their Council home; £100 million is to be made available to
improve applicants’ access to mortgage finance;
 Exploring options to kick-start the regeneration of some of the Country’s
‘worst’ housing estates through repayable loans;
 A range of measures aimed at removing barriers from the planning system to
the development of new homes, including consulting on potential changes to
the New Homes Bonus; and
 More detail on the proposed cap on welfare spending, which would take
effect from April 2014.
Local strategic priorities
2.56 The Local Growth White Paper (October 2010) set out the Government’s vision
for empowering locally driven economic growth, encouraging business
investment and promoting economic development. The paper highlighted a
series of measures aimed at stimulating growth including the Regional Growth
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Fund. The Paper also established 24 LEPs aimed at overseeing economic
growth and job creation.
2.57 These public/private partnerships are now the focal point for economic growth
and development. The Cumbria LEP was established in 2011 and seeks to
‘create one of the fastest growing economies in the UK, in an energised and
healthy environment.’ The LEP aims to develop Cumbria’s economy while
maintaining its uniqueness in terms of landscape, culture and quality of life.
2.58 The Cumbria Sustainable Community Strategy (2008-2028) has as one of its
outcomes the delivery of a sustainable and prosperous economy, key to which
is the provision of balanced housing markets and increased numbers of
affordable homes.
2.59 The current Cumbria Housing Strategy, ‘A shared vision, a single voice for
housing in Cumbria: The Cumbria Housing Strategy and Investment Plan 2011
to 2015’, was published in October 2011. The key themes of the Strategy are:
 Housing growth, affordability and community sustainability;
 Vulnerable people, supporting independence; and
 Housing market renewal: using stock more effectively.
2.60 The Strategy clearly positions itself within the context of economic growth and
the priorities of the Local Enterprise Partnership, and seeks to make
connections accordingly – in particular linking in with the development of the
Energy Coast as a key driver of economic growth.
2.61 Priorities within the South Lakeland Housing Strategy include:
 Enabling new affordable homes;
 Facilitating the delivery of open market housing;
 Planning to meet the needs of older people and other vulnerable people with
support needs;
 Improving access to housing;
 Reducing the number of long term empty homes;
 Improving the quality and energy efficiency of the District’s existing housing
stock; and
 Ensuring the best use of the Council’s housing stock.
2.62 Stakeholders were asked to rank a range of priorities as high, medium or low,
their responses are summarised in the table below.
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Table 2.1:
Ranking of priorities by stakeholders
Proposed priorities
Low
Medium
High
26.5%
41.2%
32.4%
5.7%
31.4%
62.7%
5.7%
28.6%
65.7%
52.9%
32.4%
14.7%
8.8%
47.1%
44.1%
Building properties designed for people with specialist 12.1%
needs
63.6%
24.2%
14.7%
52.9%
32.4%
Building homes to buy on the open market
Building affordable homes to rent
Building affordable homes to buy (shared ownership,
shared equity)
Building executive homes
Building properties designed for older people
Improving the quality of existing stock
2.63 Overall the majority of stakeholders supported the development of new build
housing for the open market in South Lakeland, ranking it as a medium or high
priority. The development of new homes for affordable rent was even more
generally endorsed as a medium to high priority, less that 6% of respondents
identifying it as a low priority. Similarly, there was consensus about the
development of affordable housing for sale, with almost 66% of respondents
identifying this as a high priority and less than 6% as a low priority.
2.64 In terms of developing executive housing, this was identified as a priority by
less than 15% of respondents; over half (52.9%) ranked it as a low priority.
2.65 Providing accommodation for older people was seen as a medium or high
priority by 47.1% and 44.1% of respondents respectively, with Cumbria County
Council having evidenced need for an additional 320 extra care units in South
Lakeland up to 2019.
2.66 The development of specialist housing to meet identified needs was generally
felt to be a medium priority, with 63.64% of respondents identifying it as such.
Whilst improving the quality of existing housing was felt to be a medium to high
priority by most respondents (52.9% and 32.4% respectively).
2.67 Stakeholders were asked to provide the reasons for identifying something as a
priority. Some of the main reasons given are summarised below:
 There is evidence identifying the provision of affordable homes as a priority;
 Planning restrictions on new supply that have been in place for over ten
years have limited all housing supply and helped drive up house prices;
 Out migration of young people;
 The increasingly ageing population in South Lakeland;
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 Without the provision of open market housing, the supply of affordable
housing has and will continue to be limited, as open market housing sites
provide the best source of new housing supply;
 There is a greater need for flexibility in respect of the affordable housing that
should be provided on open market housing sites to maximise viability and
thus the quantity of new affordable housing that can be delivered;
 The inability of the average resident to be able to either afford or obtain the
mortgage needed to buy an average house means that affordability is an
issue;
 A shortage of suitable properties and a lack of housing choice for older
people;
 High house prices and demand for second homes drive local people out of
the market;
 A shortage of homes below £200,000;
 Poor quality of existing housing stock; and
 Specialist housing and housing designed to meet the needs of occupiers
over their lifetime are important in helping to maintain independence – there
is a lack of such properties.
2.68 When asked to identify other additional priorities many stakeholders reiterated
the importance of providing affordable homes. Other priorities identified by
stakeholders include:
 The need to recognise and embrace the fact that the majority of new
affordable housing is inevitably reliant upon the delivery of open market
housing provided by the private sector;
 New homes need to be capable of being easily adapted to meet specialist
needs;
 All new housing needs to be linked to transport and infrastructure, including
health service provision;
 It is important that working age people are retained within the District and do
not move away;
 Single dwellings for younger vulnerable people at risk of homelessness; and
 A variety of affordable house types need to be delivered and allowing priority
to those linked to a Parish to be considered for affordable housing in that
area is important.
Concluding comments
2.69 The main purpose of this chapter has been to consider the general policy and
strategic context within which this research needs to be positioned. A new
policy framework for housing and planning has emerged. The Government’s
housing priorities have been established and set within the context of local
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decision making and accountability, reduced capital expenditure on housing,
fundamental changes to the benefit system, a changing role for social rented
housing, and a need for future housing investment to support economic growth.
Economic uncertainty, job insecurity and restricted mortgage lending
exacerbate the challenges faced.
2.70 The importance of having robust and up-to-date information to help inform
decision making at local authority level is evermore essential. In a challenging
economic climate, this SHMA provides the LEP and the Council with an
excellent range of material to inform policy debate, contribute to the delivery of
the Local Investment Plan, help inform and influence strategic responses, and
shape local and sub-regional strategic housing priorities to inform future
investment plans.
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South Lakeland District Housing Market Context
3.
Introduction
3.1
South Lakeland District is located in the South East of Cumbria in the North
West of England. According to the 2011 census the population of the District
was 103,700. The District is split into three Local Planning Authorities, with
77.7% of households living in South Lakeland, 19% living in the Lake District
National Park Authority area and 3.2% living in the Yorkshire Dales National
Park. The District is predominantly rural in character, although 27.6% of
households live in Kendal and 11.6% in Ulverston.
3.2
South Lakeland is a popular place to live. A key housing market driver is inmigration and of households moving in the past five years, 33.7% have moved
into the District, particularly from outside the North West of England.
3.3
This study provides an opportunity to review the housing market dynamics of
the District. Housing market areas are:
“defined by household demand and preferences for
housing. They reflect the key functional linkages between
places where people live and work.” 12
3.4
CLG guidance on assessing market areas suggests three core sources of
information:

House prices and rates of change;

Household migration and search behaviour;

Contextual data such as travel to work areas, which reflect the functional
relationships between places where people work and live.
3.5
This chapter proceeds with a review of house prices, rates of change and
comparisons with sub-regional and national trends. The relative affordability
of dwellings and change over time is explored. Household migration and
search behaviour is analysed, drawing upon national migration data and the
characteristics of moving households is reviewed through household survey
information collected as part of this research project.
3.6
The chapter continues with a review of travel to work trends drawing upon
2001 census and household survey evidence. Material in the chapter helps to
establish the general housing market context of South Lakeland District. This
is further explored through Estate Agent interviews.
House prices and rates of change
3.7
12
Figure 3.1 shows how house prices across South Lakeland District have
increased 166% over the period 2000 to 2012, with median prices peaking at
£220,000 during 2007. This scale of house price increase has reflected national
Identifying sub-regional housing market areas, CLG Advice Note April 2007
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trend but the median price across the District has been consistently higher than
the county and national median price. Since 2009 house prices have fluctuated
between £185,000 and £210,000.
3.8
The distribution of median house prices is illustrated in Map 3.1. This indicates
that prices tend to be highest in the Central Lakes area and relatively lower in
Ulverston and Kendal.
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Figure 3.1
House prices 1996 to 2012: South Lakeland District, county and national trends
Source: CLG house price statistics
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Map 3.1
Lower Quartile house prices in 2012-13
Source: Land Registry Price Paid Data 1 Jan 2012 to 31 Dec 2013
Relative affordability
3.9 The relative affordability of open market dwellings in South Lakeland District is
compared with the other 39 districts in the North West in Table 3.1. Table 3.1
presents lower quartile house prices, lower quartile gross income of full-time
workers and a ratio of lower quartile incomes to house prices. Overall, South
Lakeland is ranked the most unaffordable District across the North West.
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Table 3.1
Relative affordability of lower quartile prices by Local Authority
District
South Lakeland
Eden
Trafford
West Lancashire
Ribble Valley
Cheshire East UA
Fylde
Cheshire West and Chester UA
South Ribble
Sefton
Stockport
Warrington UA
Wyre
Lancaster
Wirral
Chorley
Allerdale
North West
Preston
Manchester
Carlisle
Bury
Tameside
Salford
Halton UA
Blackpool UA
Oldham
Knowsley
Rossendale
Wigan
St Helens
Bolton
Blackburn with Darwen UA
Liverpool
Rochdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Hyndburn
Pendle
Copeland
Burnley
*Q3 2012
Lower Quartile
House Price
2012*
£142,000
£125,000
£142,000
£126,250
£129,200
£122,500
£122,000
£119,000
£108,000
£110,000
£117,000
£108,000
£103,000
£100,000
£104,000
£107,500
£90,000
£93,453
£88,250
£90,000
£89,000
£91,000
£80,000
£83,500
£82,000
£70,500
£77,000
£81,000
£75,000
£79,950
£76,000
£73,000
£65,550
£75,000
£75,000
£73,000
£60,000
£58,000
£81,000
£45,450
LQ Gross
Income per
week 2012
£315
£312
£385
£353
£366
£357
£357
£349
£329
£340
£367
£352
£336
£331
£357
£370
£327
£340
£323
£332
£341
£359
£322
£337
£337
£293
£324
£343
£320
£344
£331
£320
£297
£342
£349
£355
£305
£311
£452
£320
Annual Gross
Income 2012
£16,354
£16,203
£20,036
£18,340
£19,053
£18,559
£18,538
£18,143
£17,108
£17,696
£19,100
£18,288
£17,472
£17,228
£18,538
£19,214
£17,014
£17,696
£16,817
£17,274
£17,737
£18,668
£16,765
£17,508
£17,503
£15,220
£16,864
£17,815
£16,645
£17,904
£17,191
£16,640
£15,418
£17,794
£18,143
£18,434
£15,844
£16,177
£23,478
£16,640
Income to
House Price
Ratio
8.7
7.7
7.1
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.3
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.5
2.7
Sources: CLG House Price Statistics; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2012
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Household migration and search behaviour
3.10
Annual migration data is prepared by the Office of National Statistics (ONS)
based on patient re-registrations with the National Health Service (NHS).
Although it has limitations, it is the best annual source of internal migration data
from within England and Wales. Figure 3.2 shows that over the period July 2008
to June 2011 (three years) a total of 11,630 people have moved into South
Lakeland District, particularly from Barrow in Furness, Lancaster, Greater
Manchester, Yorkshire and the Humber and elsewhere in England and Wales.
11,090 have moved out, particularly to Lancaster, Barrow, Yorkshire and the
Humber and elsewhere in England and Wales). The result is a small reduction
increase in overall population, with a net inflow of 540 residents recorded over the
three years.
Figure 3.2 Net flows of population between South Lakeland District and other areas
July 2008 to June 2011
3,500
3,000
No. of people
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Outf low
500
Inf low
Net Flow
0
-500
-1,000
Origin/Destination
Source: ONS Migration Flow Data via NHSCR
Characteristics of moving households
Mobility and migration trends
3.11
Data from the Household Survey indicated that around 13,200 households had
moved home in the preceding five years. Of these households 66.3% originated
within South Lakeland District and 33.7% originated from outside the area. This is
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would indicate that South Lakeland is a self-contained housing market area as the
proportion of moving households from within the District exceeds 70%.
3.12
Table 3.2 presents information on the origin of moving households by market area
and illustrates a series of relationships between areas and the relative impact of
in-migration. The CLG suggests that a housing market is self-contained if at least
70% of households moving originate from the same area. On this basis, South
Lakeland District cannot be described as a self-contained housing market area as
66.3% of moving households originated from within the District, which is below
the CLG threshold.
Table 3.2
Moving households: origin and destination
Origin
Within District
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal Rural
Ulverston and Furness
Total Within South
Lakes
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
Lancaster
Elsewhere in North West
Craven
Elsewhere in Yorkshire
Elsewhere in UK
Outside UK
Total Outside South
Lakes
Total All Moving H'holds
Base
Destination (% of households originating from stated origin)
Kendal
Kendal
Rural
Ulverston
and
Furness
Total
0.8
2.5
45.0
4.9
9.0
0.0
2.2
5.3
1.2
57.6
9.6
0.9
0.5
4.6
1.4
12.3
41.5
1.9
3.5
3.1
0.0
1.4
1.7
49.0
5.8
11.8
2.2
20.8
12.8
12.9
66.5
1.2
1.6
0.4
0.3
0.8
1.3
6.1
0.0
3.3
18.4
0.4
62.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
8.4
3.7
11.1
11.9
0.0
76.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
6.6
0.0
3.2
11.5
0.9
62.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.4
3.7
6.0
0.2
5.9
19.9
1.4
58.8
1.1
8.2
0.4
1.3
1.3
3.8
7.7
0.0
2.3
13.8
1.2
66.3
0.5
2.4
0.3
0.4
0.6
2.4
7.1
0.2
3.9
15.1
0.9
33.5
100.0
1703
37.8
100.0
433
23.1
100.0
3873
37.8
100.0
2726
41.2
100.0
3191
33.7
100.0
13170
Cartmel
Peninsula
Central
Lakes
Dales
42.7
8.3
0.0
3.3
5.9
2.7
0.7
59.4
0.5
3.7
1.1
1.1
62.9
1.0
1.4
1.2
0.3
1.0
2.3
9.8
0.0
3.7
16.1
0.3
37.1
100.0
1245
Source: 2011 household survey rebased to 2011 census
3.13
Within South Lakeland, Kendal market area is classified as being self-contained,
with 76.9% of moving households originating from within the same market area.
All of the other areas experience retention rates of less than 70% and therefore
cannot be classified as self-contained housing market areas.
3.14 The impact of in-migration was strongest in the Ulverston and Furness market
area, with 41.2% of households originating from outside the market area;
followed by 37.8% in both the Dales and Kendal Rural market areas, closely
followed by 37.1% in Cartmel Peninsula.
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3.15 Of the 33.7% of households who moved into the District, 4.2% originated from
elsewhere in Cumbria, 2.4% from Lancaster, 7.1% from elsewhere in the North
West, 4.1% from Yorkshire and the Humber, 15.1% from elsewhere in the UK
and 0.9% from locations outside the UK.
3.16 Analysis clearly demonstrates how migration flows affect particular localities
within South Lakeland. Key migration flows are from the elsewhere in the North
West (accounting for at least 8% of moving households in the Cartmel Peninsula
and the Dales market areas); and from elsewhere in the UK (accounting for at
least 18% of moving households in the Central Lakes and Kendal Rural market
areas)
Characteristics of in-migrant households
3.17
The Household Survey identified around 4,438 households who had moved into
South Lakeland in the preceding five years. Information relating to in-migrant
households includes:

Most moved into a house, predominantly semi-detached houses/cottages
(27.0%), detached houses/cottages (26.8%), terraced houses/cottages
(22.6%), followed by flats/apartments/maisonettes (14.5%), bungalows (8.7%)
and other dwelling types including caravans/park homes (0.4%);

Over two-thirds (67.5%) moved into properties with three or more bedrooms
(42.4% with three bedrooms and 25.1% with four or more bedrooms); 28.0%
moved into a two-bedroom property and only 4.5% into a one-bedroom
property;

62.7% moved into owner occupied properties; 33.4% into private renting (of
which 24.7% unfurnished, 4.0% furnished and 4.6% tied accommodation) and
4.0% moved into affordable (affordable/social rented and intermediate tenure)
dwellings;

Over half of all in-migrant households were made up of couples, 25.4%
couples under 60 and 24.9% couples over 60. Couples with children
accounted for 15.0%; singles (under 60) 11.3%; older singles (over 60)
11.3%; lone parent families 6.3%; and other household types 2.8%;

26.2% of in-migrant household reference people (Heads of Household) were
aged 16-39, a further 38.6% were aged 40-59 and 34.2% were aged 60 or
over;

The majority of Heads of Household of in-migrant households were in
employment (61.3%, of which 37.6% were full-time, 13.5% were part-time and
10.2% self-employed), with a further 26.6% wholly retired from work, 2.2%
unemployed and 2.2% permanently sick/disabled;

57.8% of households had a weekly income of at least £500 (with 35.6%
receiving at least £800 each week); a further 18.3% received between £300
and £500 each week and 23.9% received less than £300 each week; and

The main reasons for moving were to be closer to work/new job (26.6%) and
to live in a better neighbourhood/more pleasant area (24.1%).
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3.18
In summary, around 33.4% of households moving in the past five years originated
from outside South Lakeland District. Of this number,2.4% were from Barrow-inFurness, 2.4% from Lancaster, 1.8% from elsewhere in Cumbria, 7.1% from
elsewhere in the North Wets and 20.1% from outside the North West region.
Most moved into owner occupation (62.7%), followed by private renting (33.4%),
with only 4.0% moving into affordable housing. 64.8% of in-migrant households
had a Head of Household aged under 60 and 34.2% were aged 60 and over.
Overall 61.3% were in employment and 57.8% had an income (of Head of
Household and partner) of at least £500 each week.
Residential mobility within South Lakeland
3.19
The Household Survey identified that two-thirds (66.6%) of households moving
within the preceding five years had moved within the South Lakeland District area
(around 8,853 households).
3.20
Households moving within South Lakeland were doing so for a variety of reasons.
Those most frequently reported were moving to a larger/better property (17.2%),
being forced to move (11.1%) and wanting their own home/to live independently
(9.4%).
3.21
Table 3.3 reviews the tenure choices of households moving within South
Lakeland. The majority of households remained within the same tenure, with
those in affordable accommodation being the most likely to remain in the same
tenure (94.8%), followed by those in owner occupation (79.9%) and those in
private rented accommodation (64.4%). Respondents who had previously lived
with family and friends (i.e. newly forming households) were most likely to move
to private rented accommodation (37.2%), although a significant proportion also
moved into owner occupation (34.5%) and affordable housing (28.4%).
Table 3.3
Residential mobility – movement between different tenures
Previous Tenure (%)
Current Tenure
Private
Owned Rented Affordable
Owned
Private Rented
Affordable
Total
Base
79.9
23.7
3.4
17.9
64.4
1.8
2.2
11.9
94.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
3089
3608
1020
Source: 2011 household survey rebased to 2011 census
Previously
living with
family/friends
Other
Total
34.5
37.2
28.4
100.0
1001
20.2
28.2
51.6
100.0
124
42.2
37.3
20.5
100.0
8842
3.22 Table 3.4 considers the profile of dwellings being moved into by households
moving within the Barrow in Furness Borough area. Households are moving into
a variety of dwelling types and sizes, most notably to: two (44.3%) and three
(32.4%) bedroom dwellings; terraced houses/town houses (42.3%), semidetached houses (22.0%) and flats/apartments/maisonettes (21.4%).
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46
Table 3.4
Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size
Property Type (Table %)
No. Beds
One
Two
Three
Four
Five or
more
Total
Base
Detached
house/
cottage
Semidetached
house
Terraced
house/
cottage
Bungalow
Flat/
Maisonette
Other
Total
Base
0.0
3.4
6.9
4.5
0.4
5.2
13.0
2.4
0.6
8.7
11.2
1.3
2.8
5.4
4.0
1.4
9.9
13.4
1.7
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
13.7
36.2
36.7
10.2
1217
3202
3251
905
1.5
16.4
1450
0.4
21.3
1883
0.7
22.5
1994
0.0
0.6
3.1
25.5
2,257
0.8
67
100.0
8,853
13.6
1202
278
8853
Source: 2011 household survey rebased to 2011 census
Households planning to move
3.23 Around 8,300 households plan to move in the next five years. Table 3.5
summarises the moving intentions of households based on the first preference
they stated. Overall, 80.0% of households intend on remaining in the District and
20.0% intend to move out. Of all households planning to move out, 2.8% were
planning to move to elsewhere in Cumbria, 4.8% to elsewhere in the North West,
0.9% to Yorkshire and the Humber, 8.9% to elsewhere in the UK and 2.6% to
outside the UK. More than 20% of households in Cartmel Peninsula, Ulverston
and Furness, Dales and Kendal intending to move were planning to move out of
the District.
3.24 The main reasons why household planned to move out of South Lakeland
District included: to move to be closer to work/new job (17.0%), to be closer to
family/friends for social reasons (15.0%), to be closer to family/friends to
give/receive support (10.5%) and wanting to buy (9.9%).
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Table 3.5
Location preferences of households intending to move in the next two
years by current place of residence
Location
Market Area
(First Choice)
Central Lakes
Ulverston & Furness
Kendal
Rural Kendal
Kirkby Lonsdale
Milnthorpe
Cartmel Peninsula
Dales
Elsewhere Cumbria
North West
Y&H
Elsewhere UK
Outside UK
TOTAL
Cartmel
Peninsula
4.6
4.0
5.1
5.9
0.9
0.0
55.6
0.0
4.6
3.3
0.8
13.3
1.9
100.0
Central
Lakes
74.3
1.1
3.8
2.3
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.4
13.8
1.4
100.0
Dales
0.0
1.5
7.2
3.3
8.1
0.0
1.5
57.9
1.5
0.9
8.7
9.6
0.0
100.0
Total within
Total outside
76.2
23.8
82.6
17.4
Base
646
1317
Kendal
12.8
1.0
54.1
7.7
1.7
0.0
2.1
0.0
2.2
6.7
1.7
6.1
3.9
100.0
Kendal
Rural
12.6
0.0
14.7
31.8
14.5
5.6
3.1
1.8
1.3
5.4
0.1
8.5
0.4
100.0
Ulverston
and
Furness
7.8
57.3
3.8
3.3
0.0
0.8
3.4
0.0
6.3
5.3
0.0
7.5
4.4
100.0
Total
20.1
14.8
19.7
10.7
4.0
1.4
6.6
2.7
2.8
4.8
0.9
8.9
2.6
100.0
79.4
20.6
79.4
20.6
84.2
15.8
76.5
23.5
80.0
20.0
335
2194
1793
2023
8308
Source: 2011 household survey rebased to 2011 census
Travel to work trends
3.25 The 2001 census provides an analysis of travel to work patterns and the extent
to which residents in South Lakeland District travel to other areas together with
details of how many people commute into the District. The 2001 census
identified the travel to work patterns of 55,730 individuals and of these:

39,755 lived and worked in South Lakeland District;

7,547 commuted into South Lakeland District for work but lived outside the
District; and

8,408 lived in South Lakeland District but commuted out of the District for
work.
3.26 Therefore, 82.5% of South Lakeland District’s residents in employment work in
the District and there is a net out-flow of 861 employees on a daily basis. Figure
3.3 illustrates net commuter flows between South Lakeland District and other
areas. The pattern of commuting is dominated by outflows to Barrow in Furness
District, Lancashire and Greater Manchester; and inflows from Eden District.
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Figure 3.3
Commuting flows between South Lakeland District and other areas
Net In-flows
300
200
100
Cumbria
North West
YH
NE
Merseyside
Cheshire
Gr Man
Lancashire
-200
Eden
Carlisle
Barrow
Copeland
Net out-flows
-100
Allerdale
0
Regions
-300
-400
-500
Source: 2001 census
3.27 Further information on location of workplace was obtained in the 2011
Household Survey. Based on data from 45,935 economically active residents:

36,822 (80.2%) lived and worked in South Lakeland District; and

9,113 (19.8%) lived in South Lakeland District but worked outside the
District.
3.28 Of those working outside the District, 8.4% worked in Barrow in Furness, 1.8%
elsewhere in Cumbria, 3.6% in Lancaster, 2.7% elsewhere in the North West,
and 3.3% outside the North West.
3.29 The proportion of economically active residents working outside South Lakeland
District was highest in Ulverston and Furness at 38.2%, of whom 31.6% worked
in Barrow-in-Furness. Additionally, 18.8% of economically active residents in
Kendal Rural and 17.4% in Cartmel Peninsula worked outside South Lakeland
District. In contrast, 87.8% of residents in Central Lakes, 87.8% in Kendal and
87.8% in the Dales worked in South Lakeland District.
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Table 3.6
Workplace by place of residence
Workplace
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal Rural
Ulverston and Furness
Barrow in Furness
Elsewhere in Cumbria
Lancaster
Elsewhere in North
West
Yorkshire and the
Humber
Elsewhere in UK
Outside UK
Total
Base
Place of residence
Kendal
(%)
0.4
9.9
0.0
72.2
4.2
1.1
1.3
1.3
2.8
Kendal
Rural
(%)
2.2
6.7
0.7
22.9
47.6
1.2
1.6
1.6
7.7
Ulverston
and
Furness
(%)
3.5
4.7
0.0
3.4
1.4
48.8
31.6
3.0
1.0
Total
(%)
6.1
16.0
2.4
30.6
13.4
11.7
8.4
1.8
3.6
1.4
3.2
4.6
0.9
2.7
1.6
3.3
0.6
100.0
1534
0.3
1.9
1.4
100.0
13957
0.9
1.9
0.6
100.0
10633
0.3
0.5
0.7
100.0
10017
0.6
1.8
0.9
100.0
45935
Cartmel
Peninsula
(%)
57.4
6.4
0.0
10.2
5.1
3.5
6.6
1.2
3.0
Central
Lakes
(%)
0.2
75.0
0.0
9.6
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.7
2.9
Dales
(%)
0.4
1.1
65.7
15.0
5.7
0.0
0.0
2.1
3.1
3.4
1.4
1.1
2.0
0.0
100.0
3768
0.3
3.0
1.4
100.0
6026
Source: 2011 household survey rebased to 2011 census
3.30
The further release of 2011 census data will provide a detailed analysis of travel
to work patterns and the extent to which residents in the South Lakeland area
travel to other areas together with details of how many people commute into the
area. This data is expected to be released during 2014
Estate agent views on housing market dynamics
3.31
Face to face interviews with held with local estate agents to further understand
the current state of the sales market and Private Rented Sector (PRS) market in
South Lakeland13. The following agents were interviewed:
3.32
All agents were initially asked about the general state of the sales and rental
markets in South Lakeland. The overall rental market was described as being
very strong with one agent commenting that “anything rents unless vastly
overpriced” with even not particularly well presented properties managing to get
let. Agents agreed that the rental market has always been buoyant in South
Lakeland.
Scott Bainbridge Sales and Lettings – Kendal; Poole Townsend – Kendal; Hackney
and Leigh – Kendal; JH Homes – Ulverston; Corrie and Co. - Ulverston
13
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3.33
In terms of the sales market agents generally believed that the market was
improving and had done begun to do so between the last 12 to 6 months
depending on which agent was asked. There are more properties coming onto
the market and some are selling very quickly particularly at the lower end of the
market as more First Time Buyers (FTBs) are accessing the market. However
agents also pointed out that demand of slightly more expensive homes is also
increasing with one agent stating that whereas last year the busiest segment of
the market was for properties up to a value of £180,000 this had now risen to
encompass properties up to the value of £250,000.
3.34
When agents were asked why they thought the sales market had begun to
improve the overwhelming view from agents was that there was greater
confidence that was being driven by the media running stories on rising house
prices. Although the reality is that the most significant changes to prices have
occurred in London and the South East nevertheless the general public
concensus is that the sales market is improving across the country. Some agents
also mentioned easier mortgage lending as another factor with the greater
availability of 95% mortgages being key.
3.35
Agents were asked if there were any particular types of houses that rented or sold
better than others. Agents agreed that apartments, especially 2 bed, were in high
demand for rent but were a less popular buying option. Having said that one
agent in Kendal said they were “desperate” for lower apartments for sale between
£90,000 -100,000. Bungalows were also mentioned as being in high demand for
both rent and sales because of the comparative lack of supply coupled with the
demographics of the area. Three bed semi-detached valued between £200,000
and £250,000 were described as probably being the highest in demand for sale
whilst rental demand was highest for smaller family houses, either terraced or
semi-detached, as well as apartments. One agent stated that new build property
was popular with buyers the as continuing tough economic conditions mean that
many people do not have the means to invest in property. Generally speaking
however agents thought demand was good across the board for sales and rental
with only properties valued at over £500,000 struggling to sell in comparison.
3.36
Agents were asked about the types of people that were renting and buying
property currently. Not surprisingly the most popular answer was a “mixture”. On
the rental side younger couples perhaps looking to move in together for the first
time form a key part of the PRS market, particularly over the last few years when
access to mortgage finance has been more difficult. Also people that are moving
onto the area from elsewhere/overseas (perhaps for employment reasons) and
are either not familiar with the area or on a temporary contract, will rent. One
agent also had some experience of letting to older people who had decided to sell
and release the equity in their home.
3.37
For sales as mentioned previously agents have witnessed more FTBs entering
the market and generally this is beginning to have a positive impact further up the
chain. Although Buy-to-let investors are also returning to the market in South
Lakeland with interest from a wide range of investors including from overseas
although one agent did point out that the relatively higher purchase prices in the
area often mean that greater rental yields can be found elsewhere, for instance in
Barrow. Agents also reported an increase in activity of people wishing to buy
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second homes, especially in Windermere/Ambleside with one agent stating that
“price was no barrier' for such purchasers.
3.38
Agents were asked about popular areas for renting and buying across South
Lakeland. Again some agents merely stated that there was good demand for
sales and rentals in all areas. One agent thought that Kendal, Windermere and
Milnthorpe were particularly strong for rentals with rural areas and Grange Over
Sands being less so. Another agent in Ulverston pointed that the recent flooding
in South Ulverston had put people off buying in that area.
3.39
One agent did raise the issue of affordability believing that FTBs and younger
families quite often could not afford to buy in Ulverston and so would look towards
Dalton to seek more affordable property.
3.40
With regard to rental levels and sales prices across the area all agents agreed
that rental levels have remained pretty static with only some modest increases
despite the market being buoyant. Likewise with the sales market all agents have
witnessed an increase in activity with more instructions, viewings and sales
proceeding but this has not yet translated into rising property prices. One agent
stated that prices had dropped typically between 10% - 20% during the height of
the recession and so still had some way to go to recover to pre-recession levels.
3.41
Finally the agents were asked about how they thought the rental and sales market
in South Lakeland would fair over the next 2 years. All agents thought that the
rental market would remain strong and that a resurgent sales market would have
little if any impact on demand due to the overall shortage of rental properties. All
agents predicted that, provided that interest rates remain relatively low and that
banks continue to lend at higher loan to value ratios, then the market will continue
to improve with price rises likely although nobody believed price rises would be
anything like as dramatic as those witnessed in the years prior to 2007. The
Ulverston agents also pointed out the important positive impact that recently won
contracts by Glaxo will continue to have on both the sales and rental markets in
that area.
Stakeholder views on the housing market
3.42 The views of stakeholders were mixed in respect of house prices; some felt that
were stable and not going up, others felt that prices were increasing.
3.43 It appears that demand has improved during the course of 2013, with significant
increases in the £250,000 to £300,000 market, which had been constrained by a
lack of market confidence. There are more first time buyers with access to
deposits and mortgage finance too, which is also increasing demand. Limited
supply with persistent demand was felt to have contributed to house prices
remaining high in South Lakeland. The District also remains a desirable place to
live, which has helped to protect house prices somewhat during the recession.
3.44 Stakeholders identified demand as coming from a range of sources including:
 Second and holiday home owners;
 Young families;
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 Single people, couples, newly forming householders;
 Households seeking starter homes and smaller properties; and
 Homes for older people seeking to downsize.
3.45 Demand would seem to be coming from household both from within and from
outside of the area.
3.46 Affordability was clearly identified as an over whelming issues for the District by
stakeholders, both in terms of housing to purchase and rent privately.
Concluding comments
3.47
The purpose of this chapter has been to consider the general housing market
context of South Lakeland and its inter-relationships with other areas. By
reviewing house prices, migration and travel to work patterns, a picture of the
market dynamics of South Lakeland District emerges.
3.48
The Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) suggests that a
housing market is self-contained if upwards of 70% of moves (migration and
travel to work) take place within a defined area. An analysis of migration data
suggests that 66.3% of households had moved within the District in the preceding
5 years of the household survey. In terms of travel to work patterns, 80.2% of
residents work in the District and 19.8% commute out to work. On the basis of
these data, it can be argued that South Lakeland is a functional market area in
terms of workplace patterns but because of the scale of migration into the District
it cannot be described as a self-contained housing market area.
3.49 Within South Lakeland District, Table 3.7 suggests that no market area can be
described as being self-contained as fewer than 70% of moving households
originated from within the same area. The most self-contained area is the
Central Lakes (59.4% of moving households originated from within the Central
Lakes) and the least self-contained is Kendal Rural (41.5% of moving
households originated from within the same market area). In terms of travel to
work, both Kendal and Central Lakes are self-contained in that at least 70% of
workers live within the same sub-area. However, in Kendal Rural and
Ulverston/Furness, more than 50% of economically active residents work outside
these market areas.
3.50 Although these localities cannot be defined as self-contained housing markets,
they do have distinctive characteristics which are explored in greater detail in
Appendix B.
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Table 3.7
Summary of household migration and workplace patterns
Previous residence
Same market area
Elsewhere within
South Lakeland
District
Outside South
Lakeland District
Total
Base
Workplace
Current residence
Kendal
(%)
57.6
Kendal
Rural
(%)
41.5
Ulverston
and
Furness
(%)
49.0
Total
(%)
17.2
19.3
20.7
9.8
66.3
37.8
100.0
433
23.1
100.0
3873
37.8
100.0
2726
41.2
100.0
3191
33.7
100.0
13170
Kendal
(%)
72.2
Kendal
Rural
(%)
47.6
Ulverston
and
Furness
(%)
48.8
Total
(%)
15.6
33.6
13.1
80.2
12.2
100.0
13957
18.8
100.0
10633
38.2
100.0
10017
19.8
100.0
45935
Cartmel
Peninsula
(%)
42.7
Central
Lakes
(%)
59.4
Dales
(%)
45.0
20.1
7.1
37.1
33.5
100.0
100.0
1245
1703
Place of residence
Cartmel
Peninsula
(%)
57.4
Central
Lakes
(%)
75.0
Dales
(%)
65.7
Same market area
Elsewhere within
South Lakeland
District
25.2
12.8
22.1
Outside South
Lakeland District
17.4
12.2
12.2
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
Base
3768
6026
1534
Source: 2011 Household Survey rebased to 2011 census
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4.
Strategic Housing Market Assessment Core Outputs
Introduction
4.1
The purpose of this chapter is to update where possible the core outputs required
by the SHMA guidance relating to South Lakeland District.
Core Output 1: Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size,
type, condition, tenure
4.2
According to the 2011 Census there were a total of 53,422 dwellings across
South Lakeland District and a total of 46,522 households. According to the 2013
Council Tax register there are 52,389 dwellings and of this number 1,738 are
vacant. Data on second homes is now no longer available from Council Tax but
the 2011 SHMA reported around 5,000 second/holiday homes and the 2011
census reported that 8,628 residents (not households) had second/holiday homes
in South Lakeland.
4.3
This study assumes a total of 52,389 dwellings (based on 2014 Council Tax data)
and a total of 46,522 households (based on 2011 Census data).
Property size and type
4.4
Table 4.1 reviews the profile of dwelling stock by size and type based on the 2011
Household Survey. Overall, the vast majority (72.3%) of properties are houses,
14.6% are bungalows, 12.6% are flats/maisonettes and 0.7% are other types of
property including park homes/caravans. Of all occupied properties, 6.2% have
one bedroom, 27.0% two bedrooms, 44.3% three bedrooms, 17.5% four
bedrooms and 5.0% five or more bedrooms. How property type varies by market
area is illustrated in Figure 4.1 and variations in number of bedrooms by market
area in Figure 4.2.
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Table 4.1
Property type and size
Property Type
No. Bedrooms (Table %)
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
or
more
3.0
Detached house
0.2
2.4
9.0
9.2
Semi-detached
house
0.4
4.2
16.5
4.2
0.8
Terraced house
0.3
7.1
11.6
2.6
0.7
Bungalow
1.2
6.1
6.2
1.1
0.1
Maisonette
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
Flat/apartment
4.3
6.5
0.6
0.2
0.1
Caravan/Park Home
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
Total
6.2
27.0
44.3
17.5
5.0
Base (Valid
responses)
2863 12529 20561 8121 2320
Source: 2011 household survey rebased to 2011 census
Figure 4.1
Total
Base
23.9
11084
26.1
22.3
14.6
1.0
11.6
0.0
0.7
100.0
12126
10360
6790
441
5387
22
346
46394
Property type by sub-area
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Caravan/other
Flat or Maisonette
Bungalow
Terraced
Semi-detached
Detached
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
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Figure 4.2
Property size by sub-area
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Five
Four
Three
Two
One/Bedsit
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
Property condition
4.5
The 2011 Household Survey reviewed the extent to which households were
satisfied with the state of repair of their dwellings. Overall 80.9% of respondents
expressed satisfaction (38.5% were very satisfied and 42.3% were satisfied);
11.8% were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied; a total of 7.5% expressed degrees
of dissatisfaction, although only 1.0% were very dissatisfied. Table 4.2 explores
how the level of dissatisfaction varied by dwelling tenure, age and type.
4.6
Data suggests that households living in affordable housing (particularly rented
from South Lakes Housing); private renters (particularly those in unfurnished
accommodation); households living in caravans/park homes and maisonettes;
and households living in older (pre-1919) properties were most likely to express
dissatisfaction with state of repair.
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Table 4.2
Dissatisfaction with state of repair by property tenure, age and type
Tenure
Owned (no mortgage)
Owned (with mortgage)
Rented from South Lakes Housing
Rented from other Housing
Association
Rented Privately (furnished)
Rented Privately (unfurnished)
Tied accommodation
Shared Ownership, SE, LCHO
Total
No.
Dissatisfied
855
990
517
%
Dissatisfied
3.9
8.3
15.9
Base
21997
11970
3245
103
7.7
1338
63
6.6
951
895
15.3
5845
37
5.2
705
4
0.9
501
3465
7.4
46552
No.
%
Property Type
Dissatisfied Dissatisfied
Base
Detached house/cottage
621
5.6
11084
Semi-detached house/cottage
887
7.3
12125
Terraced house/cottage
952
9.2
10359
Bungalow
317
4.7
6790
Maisonette
71
16.2
440
Flat/apartment
572
10.6
5385
Caravan/Park Home
7
30.4
22
Other
38
11.1
346
Total
3465
7.4
46552
No.
%
Property Age
Dissatisfied Dissatisfied
Base
Pre 1919
1579
11.5
13694
1919-1944
390
7.7
5073
1945-1964
296
4.2
6987
1965-1984
602
6.1
9846
1985-2004
192
2.7
7124
2005 onwards
34
1.8
1877
Total
3094
44602
Missing cases
372
1950
Grand Total
3465
7.4
46552
Note: The baseline position is 7.4% of households dissatisfied.
Variances in the overall proportions by type and age are due to missing cases.
Source: 2011 Household Survey rebased to 2011 census
Property tenure
4.7
The tenure profile of South Lakeland District based on 2011 census data is
summarised in Figure 4.3. Overall, 73.0% of occupied dwellings are owneroccupied, 16.1% are private rented and 10.9% are affordable (Social/Affordable
Rented and intermediate tenure)..
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Figure 4.3
South Lakeland District tenure profile
Owned (no mortgage)
21997
Owned (with mortgage)
11970
Rented from South Lakes Housing
3245
Rented from other Housing
Association
1338
Rented Privately (furnished)
951
Rented Privately (unfurnished)
5845
Tied accommodation
705
Shared Ownership, SE, LCHO
501
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
4.8
The tenure profile by Sub-Area is presented in Figure 4.4. This shows some
notable variations in tenure profile, for instance relatively higher proportions of
privately renting households in Central Lakes and lower rates in Ulverston and
Furness. It shows higher proportions of owner occupying households in Cartmel
Peninsula, followed by Kendal Rural, with lower proportions of owner occupation
in Kendal and Central Lakes. The proportion of affordable accommodation is
notably lower in Cartmel Peninsula and Kendal Rural and slightly above the
overall average in Central Lakes.
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Figure 4.4
South Lakeland tenure profile by market area
Total
Ulverston and
Furness
Kendal Rural
Kendal
Dales
Central Lakes
Cartmel
Peninsula
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% occupied dwellings
Owned (no mortgage)
Owned (with mortgage)
Affordable (Rented/Intermediate)
Private Rent
Intermediate
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
Core Output 2: Past and current housing market trends; balance
between supply and demand; key drivers
Total dwelling stock
4.9
There are a total of 52,389 residential dwellings in South Lakeland District
according to 2013 council tax data. Based on the 2011 census 46,522 are
occupied by individual households. The total number of dwellings has increased
from 50,373 in 200114.4.
Owner-occupied market
4.10
14
73.0% (46,600) of households across South Lakeland District are owner
occupiers. 47.3% of all households (22,000) own outright and 25.7% of all
households (12,000) have a mortgage. Most owner-occupied properties (77.0%)
are houses (with similar proportions of detached, semi-detached and terraced), a
further 16.2% are bungalows, 0.9% are flats and 0.6% are other types including
caravans. 2.0% of owner-occupied properties have one bedroom, 22.1% have
two bedrooms, 48.4% have three bedrooms and 27.5% have four or more
HIP return 2001
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bedrooms. Further analysis of owner
characteristics can be found at Appendix B.
occupied
stock
and
household
4.11
Over the period 2000 to 2013, median house prices15 across South Lakeland
District have increased from £79,500 to £210,000, an increase of 164%.Table 4.3
summarises how median property prices have changed over the period 2000 to
2013 and how rates of change have varied annually, with highest proportionate
increases in 2003. The rate of house price increase slowed after 2004, prices
have fallen in 2009 but shown increases in 2010 into 2011.
4.12
It is interesting to note that in 2000, a household income of £22,700 was required
to ensure that a median-priced property was affordable. By 2011, an income of
around £60,000, was required, an increase of 164%.
4.13
In terms of household type, 52.4% of owner occupiers are older (60 or over)
singles and couples, 21.5% are couples with children, 12.8% couples with no
children, 6.2% are singles, 3.4% lone parents and 3.7% other household types.
4.14
The majority of owner occupiers have lived in their accommodation for at least 10
years (26.4% between 10 and 20 years and 35.1% for 20 years or more).
4.15
The majority of adults aged 16 or over living in owner occupied dwellings are in
employment (51.1%) and a further 43.4% are wholly retired from work.
4.16
Incomes amongst owner occupiers tend to be high, with 46.8% receiving at least
£500 each week. That said, 25.1% receive less than £300 each week.
15CLG
and Land Registry Statistics
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Table 4.3
Median property prices in South Lakeland District 1996-2013, annual rate
of change and income required to be affordable
Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
South
Lakeland
Median
Price (£)
60,000
64,950
67,500
73,250
79,500
89,500
108,000
139,000
169,950
179,650
190,000
201,000
213,000
187,750
202,000
192,000
192,000
190,000
% change
on previous
year
8.3
3.9
8.5
8.5
12.6
20.7
28.7
22.3
5.7
5.8
5.8
6.0
-11.9
7.6
-5.0
0.0
-1.0
Income
required (£)*
3.5x
multiplier
17,143
18,557
19,286
20,929
22,714
25,571
30,857
39,714
48,557
51,329
54,286
57,429
60,857
53,643
57,714
54,857
54,857
54,286
Notes:
*To be affordable, a property should cost no more than 3.5x household income
Source: CLG Housing Statistics; Land Registry Price Paid data 2012 and 2013
Private rented sector
4.17
Nationally, the private rented sector (PRS) has established itself as an important
dimension of the housing market to complement owner occupation and
social/affordable renting. Nationally, 18.1%16 of households now rent privately
which is higher than those who rent from a social landlord (17.7%). The sector
plays a major role in facilitating labour mobility. The sector is diverse in terms of
the range of households it accommodates and the types of properties available.
A report ‘The Modern Private Rented Sector’17 provides a useful overview of the
sector. Drawing upon 2001 census data, it suggests that the private rented sector
has five key roles:

A traditional housing role for people who have lived in the private rented
sector for many years;

Easy access housing for the young and mobile;

Providing accommodation tied to employment;

A residual role for those who are unable to access owner occupation or social
renting; and
16
Includes ‘Living Rent Free’
17
‘The Modern Private Rented Sector’ David Rhodes, 2006 University of York with CIH/JRF
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
4.18
4.19
4.20
An alternative to affordable/social rented housing (for instance those wanting
to move to a different area but unable to do so through their social housing
provider).
Given the range of roles of the private rented sector, there is a considerable
diversity in the characteristics of private renting tenants. Evidence from the 2001
census (Rhodes, 2006) indicates that households living in private rented
accommodation:

tend to have younger Heads of Household;

are ethnically diverse;

singles, lone parents and other multi-adult households (for instance friends
sharing) are over-represented compared with other tenures;

people in professional and higher technical occupations are over-represented
compared with other tenures;

are more likely to be highly mobile geographically and turnover rates are high;
and

are more likely to accommodate international migrants.
The report ‘The Private Rented Sector: its contribution and potential’ 18 identified
that the private rented sector is complex and distinct sub-markets include:

Young professionals;

Students, whose needs are increasingly being met by larger, branded,
institutional landlords;

The housing benefit market, where landlord and tenant behaviour is largely
framed by housing benefit administration;

Slum rentals at the very bottom of the PRS, where landlords accommodate
often vulnerable households in extremely poor quality property;

Tied housing, which is a diminishing sub-sector nationally but still has an
important role in some rural locations;

High-income renters, often in corporate lettings;

Immigrants whose most immediate option is private renting;

Asylum seekers, housed through contractual agreements with government
agencies;

Temporary accommodation, financed through specific subsidy from the
Department for Work and Pensions; and

Regulated tenancies, which are a dwindling portion of the market.
The report concludes that the PRS needs to become a flexible, well-functioning
element of the housing market. To this end, its recommendations include:
The Private Rented Sector: its contribution and potential’ Julie Rugg and David Rhodes, Centre for
Housing Policy The University of York 2008
18
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
More policy to encourage a better understanding of managed rented housing
and mandatory regulation of managing agents to ensure better quality
management standards and Registered Providers should be encouraged to
enter this market place;

Initiatives to ‘grow’ the business of letting, encouraging smaller, good
landlords to expand their portfolios and view this as a business;

Equalising rental choice so low-income households can make a real choice
between a social or private let and see both as being equally desirable; and

Light-touch licensing and effective redress to encourage local authorities to
target the very worst landlords and a permit/licence would be required by all
landlords that would be revoked if the landlord did not meet statutory
requirements on housing management and quality.
4.21
The PRS accommodates around 16.1% of households (7,501) across South
Lakeland District. Of these households, 5,845 rent unfurnished properties, 952
rent furnished accommodation and 704 rent tied accommodation.
4.22
The characteristics of tenants are diverse and in particular the private rented
sector accommodates older person households (24.5%), couples with children
(21.9%), singles (21.8%), couples (under 65) with no children (17.8%), lone
parents (9.1%) and other household types (4.9%). 40.9% have lived in their
accommodation for less than two years. In terms of income, 43.6% of privately
renting households receive less than £300 gross each week, 25.3% receive
between £300 and £500 each week and 31.0% receive at least £500 each week,
indicating that the private rented sector tends to accommodate lower income
households. That said, 69.6% of Heads of Household living in private rented
accommodation are employed. 3.1% are unemployed, 16.7% are retired, 4.1%
are permanently sick/disabled and 2.9% are looking after the home.
Stakeholder views on the private rented sector
4.23
A range of stakeholder responses were received giving views on the private
rented sector. Seven respondents identified the sector in South Lakeland as
currently too small, compared to five respondents who felt that it was about the
right size and two respondents who felt that it was too big.
4.24
Four stakeholders identified poor conditions as an issue within the sector, and a
number of respondents identified the sector as being characterised by older
housing stock, often with houses subdivided into flats. However, other
stakeholders felt that the sector was very varied, with properties generally being
in good condition. The issue of former owner occupiers renting out their homes
after moving away from the area was highlighted as a factor by one respondent.
4.25
One respondent identified that there are differences in the sector depending upon
the area, with rental values likely to be higher in rural areas. Issues linked to
students returning to the Ambleside campus generating additional pressure for
the sector in that area were also highlighted.
4.26
Respondents were not able to identify accurately where private rented sector
properties are located, although it is likely that they are available throughout the
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District, with higher concentrations in the towns and larger villages, for example,
Kendal.
4.27
Accessibility and good transport links were felt to be important factors influencing
demand for private lets, as well as the local environment (area). Kendal and Kirby
Lonsdale were highlighted as popular areas for private rents.
4.28
Buy to let activity was felt to play an important role in the local housing market,
meeting an important need in the absence of sufficient affordable housing. Buy to
let properties provide housing for those not wanting or unable to afford to buy a
property.
4.29
Demand for private rented accommodation was identified as coming from a range
of households including single people, couples, divorcees, families, people new to
the area, people in between moves, and transient workers.
4.30
The economic context and changes to welfare were felt to have influenced the
sector by increasing the supply of properties to rent (depressed values have
meant that owners have decided to rent out properties rather than sell at lower
values). However, at the same time, as increasing numbers of people have found
themselves unable (unable to access mortgage finance) or unwilling
(temporary/uncertain employment) to buy. Demand for private rented homes has
definitely increased, with one respondent identifying that it has now overtaken the
affordable/social rented sector in South Lakeland – in other words, there are now
more privately rented homes in South Lakeland than there are affordable/social
rented ones.
4.31
As the recession recedes movement from the private rented sector into owner
occupation is increasing, and there is evidence of movement between the private
rented sector and social housing – both into and out of.
4.32
Key messages identified by stakeholders regarding the sector include:
 That it is an important sector that has a significant role to play in the housing
market locally and it should be encouraged; and
 That there is a need to improve the quality of the sector.
Affordable sector
4.33
There are around 5,084 households who live in affordable properties across the
South Lakeland District area, accounting for 10.9% of all occupied dwellings. Of
these households 7.0% rent from South Lakes Housing, 2.9% rent from a
Housing Association and 1.1% are shared ownership.
4.34
Houses account for 54.2% of occupied affordable dwelling stock, 29.2% are
flats/apartments and maisonettes, 15.2% are bungalows and 1.5% are other
dwelling types. Affordable dwellings tend to have two (41.4%) or three (31.3%)
bedrooms, with 23.7% having one bedroom/bedsit and 3.6% having four or more
bedrooms.
4.35
38.6% of households living in affordable accommodation are older singles and
couples, 21.5% are couples with children, 14.7% are lone parents, 14.1% are
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65
singles (under 65), 5.8% are couples with no children and 2.5% are other types of
household.
4.36
43.7% of Heads of Household living in affordable housing are in employment.
32.5% are wholly retired from work, 13.2% are permanently sick/disabled, 5.1%
are unemployed, 3.6% are looking after the home and 1.5% are full-time
carers/volunteers.
4.37
Incomes are generally low, with 72.2% receiving an income of less than £300
gross each week and 50.4% receiving less than £200 gross each week.
Stakeholder views on affordable housing
4.38
From those Registered Providers responding to the survey, decent homes were
not an issue; and customer satisfaction was reasonably high. Anti-social behavior
was not generally identified as a problem.
4.39
Demand for affordable housing is currently high, with low demand not being
identified as an issue in the District. The less popular homes identified were either
sheltered housing or other homes in need to modernisation; accessibility can also
be a factor influencing popularity. One respondent identified that extra care can
be unpopular, with an example of a shared equity scheme in Kendal being cited.
4.40
Tenants of affordable housing in South Lakeland tend to be more likely to have
limited continuity of employment and be more reliant on pensions and benefits.
4.41
In terms of key strategic messages for the sector, the following were identified:
 There is a need for much more affordable housing;
 Emphasis needs to be placed on affordable housing for sale for all age
groups;
 Housing needs to be fully affordable in relation to earnings in South Lakeland.
Prices set at 20% below market values are not affordable;
 Affordable housing needs to ‘be forever’, i.e. for successive occupiers and not
just for the first tenant or purchaser. There is a role here in respect of
enforcement that needs to be considered; and
 The portrayal of need for smaller properties (such as flats) needs to be
carefully considered.
Executive housing
4.42
The executive housing market can be broadly defined as high quality
accommodation suited to the needs and aspirations of higher income households.
Distinctive features of executive housing include:

High property values:
-
With high incomes required to support purchase and high values are
linked to desirable locations; and
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66

High quality construction including exterior and interior fittings.
4.43
This SHMA has sought to investigate the requirements for executive housing
through a review of existing provision, stakeholder discussions and analysis of
Household Survey evidence.
4.44
The Household Survey can be used to explore the housing options being
considered by higher income groups (with a weekly income of at least £1,000).
Although the executive housing market is a niche market, reviewing the housing
aspirations of high income groups is an appropriate way of investigating the
potential demand for executive housing.
4.45
The Household Survey identifies 926 households with an income of at least
£1,000 each week and who are planning to move in the next five years. Of this
group of high income households, 74.7% stated a first preference location within
South Lakeland District, with Kendal mentioned by 12.3% and Kirkby Lonsdale by
9.6%.
4.46
In terms of dwelling preferences, likes and expectations are summarised in Table
4.4. This indicates a strong aspiration towards detached houses with three or four
bedrooms (76.9% of households), with a high proportion (64.2%) expecting to
achieve this. By comparison, while only 2.5% of respondents aspire to move to a
semi-detached house, 18.1% expect to move into a semi-detached property.
4.47
In terms of reasons for moving, most frequently mentioned are wanting a larger
property/one that is better in some way (36.7%), wanting to buy (13.3%) and to be
closer to work/new job (7.2%). A key message is that there is demand for higher
specification properties from households currently living in South Lakeland District
and who have stated a preference to remain in the District
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Table 4.4
High income household dwelling aspirations and expectations
Property type (Table %)
No. Beds
One
Two
Three
Four
Five or more
Total
Base (valid
response)
Detached
house
Semidetached
house
Terraced
House
0.5
28.8
48.1
11.8
89.1
0.6
0.6
1.9
2.5
0.6
Flat
Bungalow
Total
0.0
0.0
5.4
0.0
0.0
5.4
0.0
0.5
1.6
0.3
0.0
2.4
0.5
0.5
36.9
48.5
13.7
100.0
Flat
0.0
3.5
4.2
0.0
0.0
7.6
Bungalow
0.0
0.4
1.6
0.3
0.0
2.4
Total
0.4
4.5
45.3
47.8
1.9
100.0
877
Expectation
No. Beds
One
Two
Three
Four
Five or more
Total
Base (valid
response)
Property type (Table %)
SemiDetached
detached Terraced
house
house
House
0.4
0.6
19.1
15.7
4.8
45.1
2.4
1.9
66.6
18.1
5.4
892
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
Open market demand and supply
4.48 It is possible to review the extent to which open market demand and supply is
balanced. Using household survey data, it is possible to ascertain market
demand (as measured by the aspirations from existing households, newlyforming households and in-migrant households). This can then be reconciled
with the likely supply based on turnover rates in the preceding five years.
4.49 This analysis helps to identify areas where there are imbalances in the provision
of general market accommodation relative to expectations, and is illustrated in
Table 4.5 for Housing Market Areas and Table 4.6 for Key Service Centres. It
should also be pointed out that because a market is balanced does not mean
that it does not require any further development – the analysis assumes that
development will continue and the analysis helps to shape the nature of that
development.
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Review of general market supply and demand by Housing Market Area
Property
type
Property
size
Tenure
Table 4.5
Cartmel Central
Peninsula Lakes
Total
1.2
1.0
Owner Occupied
1.0
0.7
Private Rented
1.8
0.7
One
0.7
0.7
Two
1.3
0.7
Three
1.1
0.8
Four or more
1.0
1.0
Detached Hse
0.9
0.5
Semi Det Hse
1.3
0.7
Terraced Hse
1.4
1.2
Flat (inc bedsits)
2.2
2.4
Bungalow
0.8
0.7
Dales
0.9
0.7
1.5
2.1
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.5
0.7
2.5
1.8
0.7
Kendal
1.4
1.2
1.8
9.3
1.5
1.5
0.7
0.5
1.3
2.6
3.3
0.9
Ulverston
Kendal
and
Rural
Furness
0.9
1.1
0.7
1.1
1.7
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.7
1.4
1.5
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.6
1.3
1.4
0.7
1.4
2.5
2.5
1.2
1.2
<0.5
Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock
0.5 - <1
Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock
1>
Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
4.50 In summary, analysis of general market supply and demand suggests that the
open market is generally balanced at District level, although there are some
specific imbalances which include:
 An overall shortfall in Central Lakes, Dales and Kendal Rural market areas;
and across Ambleside, Cartmel Peninsula Rural, Grange over Sands, Kirkby
Lonsdale, Milnthorpe and Ulverston.
 Varying shortfalls in dwelling types and sizes across the District.
4.51 Future development should focus on delivering to address identified shortfalls
and reflect household aspirations which are discussed in more detail later in this
chapter.
4.52 This analysis has been carried out during a period of economic uncertainty and
mortgage finance restrictions are inhibiting the ability of households to move.
The substantial degree of market balance should be considered in this context.
Arguably, as economic circumstances improve there is likely to be an increase in
market activity. This is borne out in labour market-led household forecasts which
suggest an annual dwelling requirement of 530 based on the latest household
POPGROUP modelling (discussed later in this chapter)
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Total
1.1
1.1
1.5
0.7
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.6
1.3
1.6
2.3
0.9
Table 4.6
Review of general market supply and demand by Key Service Centre
Property
type
Property
size
Tenure
Cartmel Grange
Peninsula over
Rural
Sands
Tenure
Property
size
Sedbergh
Total
Owner Occupied
Private Rented
One
Two
Three
Four or more
Detached Hse
Semi Det Hse
Terraced Hse
Flat (inc bedsits)
Bungalow
Kendal
Property
type
Central
Lakes
Ambleside Windermere Rural
Total
Owner Occupied
Private Rented
One
Two
Three
Four or more
Detached Hse
Semi Det Hse
Terraced Hse
Flat (inc bedsits)
Bungalow
1.4
1.2
1.8
2.1
1.5
1.5
0.7
1.3
2.6
3.3
0.9
Kirkby
Furness
Lonsdale Milnthorpe Kendal Rural Ulverston Rural
Total
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
Key market drivers
4.53
Essentially, there are three key primary drivers influencing the current (and future)
housing market: demographic, economic and dwelling stock characteristics, as
summarised in Table 4.7.
Table 4.7
Primary market drivers
Primary Driver
Demography
Economy
Housing stock and
aspirations
Attributes
Changing no. of households, household
structure, ethnicity
Jobs, income, activity rates, unemployment
Quality vs. aspirations, relative prices,
accessibility, development programmes
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
Impact on overall
demand through:
Natural Change
Economic migration
Residential migration
70
4.54
4.55
19
In summary, the following demographic drivers will continue to underpin the
operation of South Lakeland District’s housing market:

ONS 2011-based projections indicate that the population of South Lakeland
Borough is set to increase from 103,713 in 2011 to 104,825 by 2021, an
increase of 1,112 or 1.1%;

Over the next decade, there will be a ‘demographic shift’ with the number
(and proportion) of older people increasing. Over the period 2011 to 2021 the
number of residents aged 65 and over is expected to increase from 25,326 to
31,311 (or by 23.7%). The number aged 85 and over is expected to increase
by 28.3% (from 7,398 in 2011 to 9,495 by 2021);

Across South Lakeland District, according to the 2011 Census, 95.6%
describe themselves as White British (including English, Welsh, Scottish,
Northern Irish and British). A further 2.7% are other White groups, 0.8% are
Asian/Asian British, 0.6% are mixed/multiple ethnic, 0.2% are Black/Black
British and 0.1% are other groups;

CLG 2011-based interim household projections suggest that the total number
of households is expected to increase by 2,083 over the period 2011-2021 (or
208 each year). Projections point to a decline in the number of households
headed by someone aged under 55 (-1,744 households), compared with an
increase in households headed by someone aged 55 and over (increasing by
3,828 households). CLG household projections indicate that household
growth will be a result of an overall increase in the number of households
headed by someone aged 55 or over (383 each year 2011-21, with an annual
reduction of 174 households headed by someone aged under 55); Scenario
modelling using POPGROUP (released in February 2014) suggests that over
the period 2012 to 2032, the total number of households is expected to
increase at an annual rate of between 6 and 530 (see Table 4.8) (not
including zero net migration figure which is -89);

The 2011 Household Survey reports that 46.4% of households across South
Lakeland District comprise older person households (single person or couple
aged 65 and over), 21.6% are couples with children (dependent and nondependent), 12.8% are couples with no children, 9.6% are singles under 65,
5.8% are lone parents (dependent and non-dependent children), and 3.8%
are other household types.
The following economic drivers will continue to underpin the operation of South
Lakeland District’s housing market:

70.4% of residents 16 to 64 are economically active according to the 2011
Census which is lower than the regional average of 75.4%. Unemployment
in 2011 was 2.0%, compared with 6.4% regionally19;

2011 Household Survey data indicates that 80.2% of employees work within
South Lakeland District and 19.8% commute to other areas, most notably to
Barrow in Furness (8.4%), Lancaster (3.6%), and outside the North West
(3.3%);
ONS 2011 Census
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
4.56
According to the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, lower quartile
earnings in 2013 were £18,195 which compares with £18,158 for the region
and £19,323 for England. Median incomes were £25,652, compared with a
regional median of £25,126 and a national median of £27,076. There is
considerable income polarisation within South Lakeland, with 33.4% of
households receiving less than £300 each week and 39.6% receiving at
least £500 each week.
In terms of dwelling stock drivers:

72.1% of properties are houses, 14.6% are bungalows, 12.6% are
flats/maisonettes, and 0.8% are other property types (e.g. caravans);

The majority of properties have two (26.9%) or three (44.2%) bedrooms,
with 6.5% having one bedroom/studio, 17.4% four bedrooms and 5.0% five
or more bedrooms;

42.1% of properties were built before 1945, a further 37.8% were built
between 1945 and 1984 and the remainder (20.2%) built since 1985;

73.0% of properties are owner-occupied, 10.9% are affordable
(social/Affordable Rent and intermediate tenure) and 16.1% are privately
rented. This compares with regional figures of 64.5% for owner occupation,
18.8% affordable tenures and 16.7% private renting;

There is a particularly strong aspiration for houses.
4.57 Stakeholders were asked to identify what the primary drivers of the local housing
market in South Lakeland are, these include:
 Demographics: ageing population, increasing household growth, higher rates
of household formation;
 The economy and increasing employment opportunities: to achieve the
Council’s stated economic growth ambitions new working age households will
need to be attracted into the area, which will bring additional housing demand
pressures;
 School catchment areas;
 Affordability (high house prices and a lack of affordable housing);
 Migration: young people leaving and older people moving in (retirement
destination);
 Accessibility of the District;
 Aspirational demand and desirability of the area;
 Quality of life;
 Second and holiday homeownership; and
 Low wage/salary
employment.
employment
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
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significant
amount
of
seasonal
72
Housing market weaknesses
4.58 Stakeholders were asked to identify what they felt to be the current housing
market weaknesses in South Lakeland, these include:
 Lack of foresight as to what is required, focus on short term profits and not
long term requirements;
 Lack of supply, including specialist housing provision;
 Low incomes for proportion of population;
 Lack of choice;
 Too many holiday/second homes;
 Price – too expensive;
 Lack of low cost housing and smaller properties with good access to
amenities and facilities;
 Too much ‘external consumption’ (holiday homes, second homes, retirement,
long range commuting);
 Poor quality older housing stock;
 Lack of employment opportunities;
 Over restrictive occupancy conditions within the National Park; and
 Lack of homes suitable to meet the needs older and disabled people.
Core Output 3:
4.59
Future households
Future household forecasts have been prepared using POPGROUP software by
the Cumbria Intelligence Observatory. POPGROUP uses Office for National
Statistics population projections and then scenarios are generated based on past
information and assumptions about the future in relation to births and fertility,
deaths and mortality, migration, housing and the labour market. The latest
forecasts for South Lakeland, published in February 2014, are presented in Table
4.8. Further commentary on objectively assessed need using population
forecasting is provided in Chapter 5. Under the labour force forecast the total
number of households and dwellings is expected to increase dramatically. These
forecasts compare with the CLG 2011-interim household projections of 208 each
year.
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Table 4.8
Forecast household change 2012 to 2032 (20 years)
Scenario
A. Population Led: Zero net migration
B. Population led:5 year weighted migration
C. Population led:10 year equal weight migration
D. Dwelling led: 10 year
E. Labour force forecast: experian jobs forecast
Annual
Household
change
-89
6
146
260
530
Annual
Dwelling
requirement
-102
7
167
298
607
Source: POPGROUP (Feb 2014)
4.60
The 2011 Household Survey has established the tenure profile of households by
age group of Head of Household in 2011. Assuming the proportions of
households in particular tenures by age group stay the same, it is possible to
estimate likely household change broken down by open market and affordable
tenures. This is helpful in gauging the likely proportions requiring different tenure
options.
4.61
Detailed analysis is presented in Technical Appendix C and is summarised in
Table 4.9. In summary, analysis suggests:

The total number of households is expected to increase by 2,084 across
South Lakeland District during the period 2011-2021 based on 2011-based
interim CLG household projections;

There is significant variation in trends across the age groups, with an overall
reduction in the number of households with a Head of Household aged under
55 (-1,744) and an increase in the number of households with a Head of
Household aged 55 or over, with the greatest increase in the number aged 75
to 84 (1,626 increase);

Assuming the tenure profile of Heads of Household remains the same over
the period 2011 to 2021, analysis suggests an annual increase of 193 heads
of household in the open market and 15 in affordable tenures.
Table 4.9
Head of Household change in South Lakeland District
Head of Household
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Total
Annual
%
Open Market
Tenure (%)
Affordable
Total
-107
-172
-673
-536
161
988
1478
797
1934
-49
-37
-88
-82
9
90
148
157
150
-156
-209
-761
-618
170
1078
1626
954
2084
193
92.8
15
7.2
208
Source: DCLG 2011-based household projections
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Population change
4.62
The latest population forecasts indicate a total population increase of 1.1% from
103,713 in 2011 to 104,825 in 2021 (Table 4.10).
Table 4.10
Population change in South Lakeland District
30-44
45-64
65-79
80+
Total
2011
15,816
13,397
17,599
31,575
17,928
7,398
103,713
2021
15,838
11,675
15,702
30,280
21,835
9,495
104,825
Change
2011-21
22
-1,722
-1,897
-1,295
3,907
2,097
1,112
% change
0%
-13%
-11%
-4%
22%
28%
1%
Of the total population:
Population aged 65+
Population aged 85+
25,326
7,398
31,331
9,495
6,005
2,097
23.7%
28.3%
Age Group
0-15
16-29
Source: ONS 2011-based interim population projections
4.63
Over the next few decades, the age profile of residents in South Lakeland District
is expected to change. In 2011, across South Lakeland there were around 25,326
residents aged 65 and older (and of these 7,398 were aged 85 or over).
Population forecasts suggest that the number of residents aged 65 or older will
increase to 31,131 by 2021 (and of these 9,495 will be aged 85 or over).
Core Output 4: Current households in need
4.64
A robust and defensible assessment of housing need is essential for the
development of affordable housing policies which need to be articulated in Local
Plans. Housing need can be defined as:
‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to
access suitable housing without financial assistance’.
4.65
The 2011 Household Survey and a range of secondary data provide the robust
and transparent evidence base required to assess housing need across the South
Lakeland District area. This is presented in detail at Appendix D of this report and
follows CLG modelling guidance.
4.66
Across South Lakeland District, there are 4,437 existing households in need.
Reasons for housing need are summarised in Table 4.11.
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Table 4.11
Housing need in South Lakeland District
Category
Homeless
households or with
insecure tenure
Factor
N1 Under notice, real threat of notice or lease
coming to an end
N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of housing
benefit or in arrears due to expense
Mismatch of housing N3 Overcrowded according to the 'bedroom
need and dwellings
standard' model
N4 Too difficult to maintain
N5 Couples, people with children and single
adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, bathroom or WC
with another household
N6 Household containing people with mobility
impairment or other special needs living in
unsuitable accommodation
Dwelling amenities
N7 Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and
and condition
household does not have resource to make fit
N8 Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and
household does not have resource to make fit
Social needs
N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from
neighbours or others living in the vicinity which
cannot be resolved except through a move
Total no. households in need
Total Households
% households in need
No. Households
740
940
1050
1099
220
1283
85
232
139
2,465
31,967
7.1
Note: A household may have more than one housing need.
4.67
Table 4.12 summarises overall housing need (before further analysis to test the
extent to which households can afford open market provision to offset their need)
by key service centre, housing market area and local planning authority area and
the extent to which housing need varies across the District. By key service centre,
the proportion of households in need is highest in Windermere (12.9%), Furness
Rural (10.9%), Central Lakes Rural (10.5%) and Kendal (10.3%). By housing
market area, the proportion is highest in Central Lakes (11.3%) and Kendal
(10.3%). By local planning authority, the highest proportion of households in need
is in the Lake District National Park (10.8%).
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Table 4.12
Housing need by key service centre, housing market area and local
planning authority area
Key Service Centre
No. households in
need
%
households
in need
Total no.
households
Grange Over Sands
186
8.9
2091
Cartmel Peninsula Rural
161
6.6
2450
Ambleside
64
6.6
965
Windermere
481
12.9
3728
Central Lakes Rural
148
10.5
1414
Sedbergh
130
8.3
1561
Kendal
1326
10.3
12867
Kirkby Lonsdale
93
8.5
1100
Milnthorpe
64
6.8
947
Kendal Rural
721
8.5
8514
Ulverston
461
8.6
5388
Furness Rural
602
10.9
5527
Total
4437
9.5
46552
No. H'holds in need
% H'holds
in need
Total no.
households
Cartmel Peninsula
347
7.6
4541
Central Lakes
693
11.3
6107
Dales
130
8.3
1561
Kendal
1326
10.3
12867
Kendal Rural
878
8.3
10561
Ulverston and Furness
1063
9.7
10915
Total
4437
9.5
46552
Local Planning Authority
No. H'holds in need
% H'holds
in need
Total no.
households
Lake District National Park
Yorkshire Dales National
Park
957
10.8
8898
124
8.2
1511
South Lakeland District
3355
9.3
36143
9.5
46552
Housing Market Area
Total
4437
Source: 2011 Household Survey, rebased to 2011 census
4.68
Table 4.13 demonstrates how the proportion of households in housing need
varies by tenure and Table 4.14 by household type. Private renters, lone parents
with three or more children and couples with three or more children are more
likely to experience housing need compared with the general population.
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Table 4.13
Housing need by tenure and household type
Tenure
Owner Occupier
Private
Affordable
Total
No. households
in need
Total no. of
households
% households in
need
2391
1525
521
4437
33967
7501
5084
46552
7.0
20.3
10.3
9.5
Source: 2011 Household Survey, rebased to 2011 census
Table 4.14
Housing need by household type
Household type
Single Adult (under 65)
Single Adult (65 or over)
Couple only (both under 65)
Couple only (one or both over 65)
Couple with 1 or 2 child(ren)
Couple with 3 or more children under 18
Couple with child(ren) 18+
Lone parent with 1 or 2 child(ren)
Lone parent with 3 or more children
Lone parent with child(ren) aged 18+
Other type of household
Total
No.
households in
need
Total no. of
households
%
households
in need
505
676
415
999
296
575
143
129
138
41
520
4437
4472
8867
5979
12722
5625
1873
1476
236
2542
992
1769
46552
11.3
7.6
6.9
7.9
5.3
30.7
9.7
54.7
5.4
4.1
29.4
9.5
Source: 2011 Household Survey, rebased to 2011 census
Core Output 5: Future households requiring affordable housing
4.69
Various assumptions regarding the rate of household formation can be derived
from a number of sources. These are explored in detail at Appendix D but in
summary the study is assuming a household formation rate of 810 households
each year. This is based on the average national gross household formation rate
of 1.74% over the period 2010/11 to 2012/13 and compares with a figure of 824 in
the 2011 SHMA. Note that this is a gross figure and does not take into account
household dissolution. Based on the ability of households who have formed in the
past five years to access the open market, it is suggested that 69.2% of newlyforming households could not afford to rent or buy on the open market (561 each
year). This figure is used in the modelling of affordable housing requirements
which is presented in Appendix D.
Core Output 6: Future households requiring market housing
4.70
The 2011 Household Survey provides a range of valuable evidence on general
market requirements. Figure 4.5 provides an indication of the types of household
intending to move in the open market within South Lakeland District over the next
five years. This indicates that couples (under 65), older couples, couples with one
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
78
or two children, single adults (under 65) and older singles together account for
over three-quarters of households intending on moving in the next 5 years.
Figure 4.5
Types of household intending to move in the open market in the next five
years across the South Lakeland area
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
4.71
Table 4.15 explores the extent to which household aspirations differ from
expectations. It specifically focuses on existing households within South Lakeland
District who are planning to move in the next five years. Of households moving,
most would like to move to a house (72.8%), 19.0% would like to move to a
bungalow and 8.2% to move to a flat. This compares with 71.5% who expect to
move to a house, 15.7% to a bungalow and 12.4% to a flat. A much higher
proportion would like to move to a detached house (52.0%) but 27.3% expect to.
In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (25.1%)
than would prefer to (14.1%).
4.72
In terms of property size, the majority of respondents expect to move to a
property with two (29.3%), three (45.8%) or four or more (19.1%) bedrooms. A
higher proportion of households would like a property with four or more bedrooms
(29.3%).
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79
Table 4.15
years
Market preferences of existing households planning to move in the next 5
Like/Aspiration
No.
Bedrooms
One
Two
Three
Four
Five or
more
Total
Property
Type
Detached
house
0.1
5.8
20.1
22.1
3.9
52.0
Semidetached
house
Large
terraced
house
4.1
8.2
1.5
0.9
1.5
0.5
Small
terraced
house
0.1
3.3
0.5
0.2
14.1
3.0
3.8
Detached
house
0.1
0.5
11.7
13.7
Semidetached
house
0.4
4.8
17.3
2.6
Large
terraced
house
0.4
2.9
4.7
0.9
Small
terraced
house
0.2
7.5
2.3
1.3
27.3
25.1
8.9
10.1
Flat
2.2
4.2
1.7
0.1
Bungalow
0.3
6.6
11.3
0.8
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total
2.6
24.9
43.3
25.1
0.0
8.2
0.0
19.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
100.0
Flat
3.7
6.9
1.7
0.0
Bungalow
0.3
6.8
8.0
0.6
Other
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
Total
5.3
29.8
45.8
17.8
0.0
12.4
0.0
15.7
0.0
0.4
1.3
100.0
Expectation
No.
Bedrooms
One
Two
Three
Four
Five or
more
Total
Property
Type
Base: 7,220 households planning to move in the open market in the next 5 years
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
4.73
Table 4.16 provides a useful review of how market demand varies by household
type. The table shows the percentage of households by household type who
expect to move to a particular property type and size. Data indicates that:

Houses remain the most popular choice for most household types, particularly
semi-detached houses and properties with two and three bedrooms;

Older singles and older couples were more likely to expect to move to a
bungalow;

Singles (under 65) were more likely to expect to move to a small terraced
house, and couples with no children (under 65) into a semi-detached house;

Overall:
 One bedroom properties were expected to be moved to by singles and
singles and older singles,
 two bedroom properties were mainly expected to be moved to by singles
(under 65 and older), couples (under 65 and older), lone parents with adult
children living at home and other types of household;
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 44.3% of all households expected to move to a three bedroom property
and in particular lone parents, couples with 1or 2 children and couples with
adult children; and
 four bedroom properties were expected to be moved to by couples with
children (under 18), couples with no children and other types of household.
4.74 An important message from this analysis is that although there are some trends
in household type and dwelling expectation (for instance older singles
considering smaller dwellings) there remains a great diversity in the range of
dwellings different household types would expect to move to. Significantly,
household size does not necessarily correlate with bedroom requirements.
Therefore future housing development should ensure a broad range of new
dwellings to satisfy a broad range of requirements.
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Table 4.16
Property type and size expectations by household type
Household type - considered property type and size %
Couple
Couple
Couple
Couple only (one
Single
Single
(3+
(1/2
adult 60 only (both or both
adult
under 60 or over under 60) over 60) child(ren)) children)
78.0
34.7
15.4
18.4
7.1
16.0
Detached house
22.0
51.8
13.2
44.4
17.9
12.7
Semi-detached house
0.0
13.4
1.1
13.2
3.4
17.7
Large terraced house
0.0
0.0
5.1
3.1
13.4
28.4
Small terraced house
0.0
0.0
13.1
4.7
8.3
3.0
Flat - ground floor
0.0
0.0
0.3
3.0
18.4
15.3
Flat - above ground floor
0.0
0.0
35.6
4.9
16.5
0.0
Detached bungalow
0.0
0.0
13.7
8.2
10.7
6.9
Semi-detached bungalow
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.9
0.0
Terraced bungalow
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
3.4
0.0
Caravan / Park Home
0.0
0.0
1.4
4.9
20.2
13.2
One
6.3
1.1
47.2
30.7
43.0
43.1
Two
36.4
61.7
44.8
41.1
36.8
35.7
Three
47.2
30.6
6.5
23.3
0.0
8.0
Four
10.1
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Five or more
316
725
828
1156
568
524
Base
Property Type/Size
Household type - considered property type and size %
Lone
Lone
Lone
parent Other type
Couple
parent
parent
of
with 1/2 with 3+ with adult with adult
child(ren) children children children household
32.0
0.0
60.0
0.0
28.2
Detached house
14.4
32.1
5.9
0.0
48.1
Semi-detached house
1.5
58.5
4.7
19.2
17.6
Large terraced house
32.6
9.4
3.5
80.8
0.0
Small terraced house
6.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Flat - ground floor
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Flat - above ground floor
6.5
0.0
4.7
0.0
0.0
Detached bungalow
2.1
0.0
4.7
0.0
6.1
Semi-detached bungalow
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Terraced bungalow
0.0
0.0
16.5
0.0
0.0
Caravan / Park Home
0.0
17.2
16.1
0.0
0.0
One
55.3
56.3
4.6
0.0
3.3
Two
21.9
26.6
79.3
100.0
96.7
Three
22.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Four
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Five or more
341
53
85
26
131
Base
Property Type/Size
Total
23.4
28.6
9.3
9.4
5.4
5.0
10.6
7.1
0.2
1.1
5.8
31.0
44.3
17.1
1.7
4814
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
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4.75 Table 4.17 considers the expectations of newly-forming households by
considering the range of dwellings newly-forming households have moved to in
the past five years. This shows they mainly moved into terraced houses (39.0%)
or flats/apartments (24.8%), with a further 18.4% moving into a semi-detached
house and 17.8% into a detached house. Half of newly-forming households
moved into a property with two bedrooms, 36.5% three bedrooms, 9.9% one
bedroom and 3.6% four or more bedrooms.
Table 4.17
Household expectations (newly-forming households)
Dwelling type
Detached house
Semi-detached house
Terraced house/town house
Flat/Apartment
Total
Base (Valid Responses)
No. Bedrooms
One
Two
9.9
9.9
Three
13.5
4.0
17.5
14.9
50.0
Four or more
3.3
14.3
18.8
0.0
36.5
Total
1.0
2.6
0.0
3.6
17.8
18.4
39.0
24.8
100.0
716
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
Core Output 7: Size of affordable housing required
4.76 A detailed analysis of the following factors determines overall affordable housing
requirements:
 Households currently in housing which is unsuitable for their use and who are
unable to afford to buy or rent in the market (backlog need);
 New households forming who cannot afford to buy or rent in the market;
 Existing households expected to fall into need;
 The supply of affordable housing through social renting and intermediate
tenure stock.
4.77 The needs assessment model advocated by the CLG has been used and
detailed analysis of each stage of the model is presented at Appendix D.
4.78 In addition to establishing the overall affordable housing requirement, analysis
considers the supply/demand variations by sub-area, market area, property
designation (i.e. general purpose and older person) and property size (number of
bedrooms) as shown in Table 4.18.
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83
Table 4.18 Net annual affordable housing requirements by housing market area,
property size and designation 2014/15 to 2018/19
Housing market area
General
Older
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal Rural
Ulverston and Furness
Total
Local Planning Authority
Smaller 1/2
Larger 3+
bedroom
bedroom
51
16
42
-9
21
1
111
47
100
53
101
75
425
182
General
1/2
bedrooom
TOTAL
5
71
23
56
4
26
6
164
33
186
9
185
80
687
Older
LDNP
YDNP
SLDC
Total
Smaller 1/2
bedroom
42
21
362
425
1/2
bedrooom
23
4
53
80
Larger 3+
bedroom
-9
1
190
182
TOTAL
56
26
605
687
Sources: 2011 Household Survey rebased to 2011 census; RP CORE Lettings and Sales
4.79 On the basis of the shortfalls identified, it is suggested that for policy making
purposes, the 687 net annual shortfall is apportioned as follows:
 61.9% smaller one and two bedroom general needs (425)
 26.4% larger three and four bedroom general needs (182);
 11.7% older person one and two bedroom dwellings (80)
4.80 In terms of Local Planning Authority areas, 88.1% of annual affordable shortfalls
are in the South Lakeland Local Planning Authority (LPA) area (605 dwellings),
8.1% are in the Lake District National Park LPA (56) and 3.8% are in the
Yorkshire Dales National Park LPA (26).
4.81 The method for calculating these figures is explored in full in Technical Appendix
D.
Tenure split
4.82 In terms of the split between affordable/social rented and intermediate tenure
products, the household survey identified tenure preferences and realistic
expectations of existing and newly-forming households and also the extent to
which intermediate tenure products could be afforded.
4.83 There was a strong preference for intermediate tenure products (including
shared ownership, shared equity, low cost home ownership, rent to buy and
intermediate rent), with 46% preferring social/affordable rented and 54%
preferring intermediate tenure products. However, 93.4% of existing households
arc4
South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
84
in need expected to move to social renting and 6.6% to intermediate tenure
dwellings.
4.84 The following tables consider the gross incomes of existing households in need
and newly-forming households and what could be afforded based on a threshold
of 25% of gross income (of head of household and partner if applicable) spent
on housing costs. This analysis has been carried out by Housing Market Area
(Table 4.19), Local Planning Authority (Table 4.20) and at District level (Table
4.21).
4.85 Overall, at District level, analysis indicates that 18.8% of existing households in
need and newly-forming households could afford a rent/intermediate product
costing up to £50 each week and 22.9% could afford a rent/intermediate product
costing between £50 and up to £75 each week excluding Housing Benefit.
Around 17.4% could afford a rent/intermediate product costing between £75 and
£100 each week.
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
85
Table 4.19 Affordability thresholds of existing households in need and newly-forming
households: by Housing Market Area
Income and affordability based on 25% of gross weekly income
Between Between Between Between
Gross Income Up to
£200 and £300 and £400 and £500 and
(weekly)
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
Between Between Between Between
HOUSING MARKET Can afford
£50 and £75 and £100 and £125 and
AREA
(weekly)
Up to £50 £75
£100
£125
£150
No. beds required
Cartmel Peninsula
1
30
54
31
18
29
2
11
20
0
7
0
3
7
0
0
0
27
4 or more
10
18
0
0
7
Total
57
93
31
25
63
Central Lakes
1
124
96
63
2
30
2
34
0
0
3
14
3
8
30
22
0
0
4 or more
12
21
5
0
4
Total
178
147
90
5
48
Dales
1
21
13
28
8
3
2
4
8
8
3
0
3
0
0
5
0
0
4 or more
0
0
0
0
0
Total
25
21
41
12
3
Kendal
1
259
115
60
86
86
2
0
96
130
83
37
3
0
0
0
0
0
4 or more
93
157
86
0
0
Total
352
367
275
169
123
Kendal Rural
1
136
79
64
109
58
2
0
26
47
0
0
3
5
0
19
0
0
4 or more
6
4
0
0
0
Total
147
110
130
109
58
Ulverston and Furness
1
133
304
173
0
126
2
0
70
0
0
14
3
63
23
49
0
17
4 or more
0
23
92
14
0
Total
196
420
314
14
157
Total
1
703
661
419
223
331
2
49
220
185
97
65
3
83
53
94
0
44
4 or more
120
224
183
14
11
TOTAL
956
1158
881
334
452
Between
£600 and
£700
Betweeen
£150 and
£175
Between
£700 and
£800
Betweeen
£175 and
£200
33
10
0
0
44
38
0
43
0
80
14
5
0
0
20
72
0
74
37
182
82
5
0
0
87
17
62
0
14
93
256
83
116
51
506
14
14
0
7
35
9
0
0
21
30
0
5
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
81
0
16
0
97
36
0
0
0
36
140
19
16
28
203
Between
£800 and
£900
Between
£200 and
£225
6
0
0
0
6
18
0
0
5
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
19
10
0
0
26
36
53
0
0
31
84
Between
£900 and
£1000
Between
£225 and
£250
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
37
60
14
0
0
0
14
17
0
0
0
17
56
0
0
37
92
£1000 or
more
Total
£250 or
more
Total
27
0
7
11
45
77
21
19
4
121
0
5
0
0
5
0
0
37
37
74
61
19
31
4
114
44
0
0
0
44
208
45
93
57
403
241
62
41
53
397
459
73
121
73
726
88
40
5
0
133
701
345
110
446
1602
702
97
70
15
885
860
146
152
169
1327
3052
763
500
756
5070
Note: revised analysis considers all households in need and newly forming households who have formed
in the past 5 years
Source: 2011 household survey; rebased to 2011 census
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86
Table 4.20 Affordability thresholds of existing households in need and newly-forming
households: by Planning Authority Area
Local Planning Authority Area
Lake District National Park
South Lakeland
Yorkshire Dales National Park
Total
Income and affordability based on 25% of gross weekly income
Between Between Between Between
Gross Income Up to
£200 and £300 and £400 and £500 and
(weekly)
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
Between Between Between Between
Can afford
£50 and £75 and £100 and £125 and
(weekly)
Up to £50 £75
£100
£125
£150
No. beds required
1
138
201
79
40
68
2
44
24
0
3
14
3
8
30
22
0
11
4 or more
12
21
5
0
4
1
544
452
312
175
260
2
0
189
177
90
51
3
75
23
67
0
33
4 or more
109
202
178
14
7
1
21
8
28
8
3
2
4
8
8
3
0
3
0
0
5
0
0
4 or more
0
0
0
0
0
1
703
661
419
223
331
2
49
220
185
97
65
3
83
53
94
0
44
4 or more
120
224
183
14
11
Between
£600 and
£700
Betweeen
£150 and
£175
Between
£700 and
£800
Betweeen
£175 and
£200
38
0
43
0
204
77
74
51
14
5
0
0
256
83
116
51
23
0
0
21
117
14
16
7
0
5
0
0
140
19
16
28
Between
£800 and
£900
Between
£200 and
£225
18
0
0
19
35
0
0
12
0
0
0
0
53
0
0
31
Between
£900 and
£1000
Between
£225 and
£250
2
0
0
0
53
0
0
37
0
0
0
0
56
0
0
37
£1000 or
more
Total
£250 or
more
Total
87
21
19
4
121
19
74
52
0
5
0
0
208
45
93
57
694
107
132
87
2275
616
362
668
83
40
5
0
3052
763
500
756
Source: 2011 household survey; rebased to 2011 census
Table 4.21 Affordability thresholds of existing households in need and newly-forming
households: South Lakeland District summary
South Lakeland District
Total
Cumulative %
Income and affordability based on 25% of gross weekly income
Between Between Between Between
Gross Income Up to
£200 and £300 and £400 and £500 and
(weekly)
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
Between Between Between Between
Can afford
£50 and £75 and £100 and £125 and
(weekly)
Up to £50 £75
£100
£125
£150
No. beds required
1
703
661
419
223
331
2
49
220
185
97
65
3
83
53
94
0
44
4 or more
120
224
183
14
11
TOTAL
956
1158
881
334
452
18.8
41.7
59.1
65.7
74.6
Between
£600 and
£700
Betweeen
£150 and
£175
Between
£700 and
£800
Betweeen
£175 and
£200
256
83
116
51
506
84.6
140
19
16
28
203
88.6
Between
£800 and
£900
Between
£200 and
£225
53
0
0
31
84
90.2
Between
£900 and
£1000
Between
£225 and
£250
56
0
0
37
92
92.0
£1000 or
more
Total
£250 or
more
Total
208
45
93
57
403
100.0
3052
763
500
756
5070
Source: 2011 household survey; rebased to 2011 census
4.86 Table 4.22 presents the overall tenure split preferences between
social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure of existing and newly-forming by
housing market area and Local Planning Authority area. Table 4.23 presents an
overall tenure split by social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure on the basis
of apportioning the total annual affordable shortfall between tenures. Table 4.24
consider the potential price range of intermediate tenure products, starting at
£50,000 and going up to the lower quartile price for each key service centre.
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
87
Table 4.22
Affordable housing tenure split
Housing Market Area
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal Rural
Ulverston and Furness
Total
Social/Affordable
Rent (%)
49.5
44.3
62.5
40.7
49.2
50.1
46.0
Intermediate
(%)
50.5
55.7
37.5
59.3
50.8
49.9
54.0
Total
(%)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Social/Affordable Intermediate
Total
Local Planning Authority
Rent (%)
(%)
(%)
Lake District NP
42.4
57.6
100.0
Yorkshire Dales NP
73.6
26.4
100.0
SLDC
47.2
52.8
100.0
Total
46.0
54.0
100.0
Base: Tenure preferences of 276 existing and 588 newly-forming households;
Source 2011 household survey; rebased to 2011 census
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
88
Table 4.23 Annual affordable shortfall requirements by tenure based on tenure splits by housing market and Local Planning
Authority area
Intermediate Tenure
Housing market area
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal Rural
Ulverston and Furness
Total
Local Planning
Authority
LDNP
YDNP
SLDC
Total
General
Older
Smaller Larger
1/2
3+
1/2
bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL
25
8
2
35
19
-4
10
25
13
0
3
16
45
19
3
67
49
26
16
92
51
38
5
93
195
83
37
316
General
Older
Smaller Larger
1/2
3+
1/2
bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL
18
-4
10
24
15
0
3
19
171
90
25
285
195
83
37
316
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South Lakeland District 2014 SHMA Update
Affordable/Social Rent
Housing market area
General
Older
Smaller Larger
1/2
3+
1/2
bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL
Cartmel Peninsula
26
8
2
36
Central Lakes
23
-5
13
31
Dales
8
0
2
10
Kendal
66
28
4
97
Kendal Rural
51
27
17
94
Ulverston and Furness
50
37
5
92
Total
230
98
44
371
Local Planning
General
Older
Authority
Smaller Larger
1/2
3+
1/2
bedroom bedroom bedrooom TOTAL
LDNP
24
-5
13
32
YDNP
5
0
1
7
SLDC
191
100
28
320
Total
230
98
44
371
89
4.87 Table 4.24 summarises the likely range of intermediate tenure prices by key
service centre. This is based on a range from £50,000 up to entry-level (lower
quartile) prices.
Table 4.24
Intermediate tenure price range
Market Area
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Rural Kendal
Ulverston and Furness
Key Service Centre
Grange over Sands
Cartmel Peninsula Rural
HMA Total
Ambleside
Windermere
Central Lakes Rural
HMA Total
Sedbergh/HMA Total
Kendal/HMA Total
Kirkby Lonsdale
Milnthorpe
Kendal Rural
HMA Total
Ulverston
Furness Rural
HMA Total
Total
Intermediate tenure price range
£50,000 up to £137,500
£50,000 up to £133,000
£50,000 up to £140,000
£50,000 up to £190,000
£50,000 up to £180,000
£50,000 up to £233,000
£50,000 up to £190,000
£50,000 up to £160,000
£50,000 up to £125,000
£50,000 up to £166,000
£50,000 up to £125,000
£50,000 up to £180,000
£50,000 up to £167,000
£50,000 up to £120.000
£50,000 up to £131,250
£50,000 up to £122,500
£50,000 up to £141,000
Source: Land Registry house prices Jan 2012 to Dec 2013
4.88 The relative affordability of dwellings within this price range to existing
households in need and newly-forming households was tested using household
income and savings data. Table 4.25 summarises the range of intermediate
tenure prices which would be appropriate for these households.
4.89 Note that this analysis is based on the stated preferences of households. The
actual proportion of affordable dwellings to be rented and intermediate tenure
should be informed by this evidence, and ongoing review of the financial ability
of households to access intermediate tenure products and the findings of
economic viability assessments.
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
90
Table 4.25
Intermediate tenure price affordability
Price of property
Housing Market Area and % could afford different priced properties
Cartmel
Peninsula
52.4
1.4
6.9
4.9
8.0
9.4
12.2
0.0
4.9
Central
Lakes
61.1
2.7
7.4
1.1
4.0
3.6
10.1
1.7
0.8
0.0
1.5
1.3
4.7
0.0
Dales
30.7
10.9
16.8
17.8
0.0
7.9
5.0
7.9
3.0
0.0
0.0
£50k to <£60k
£60k to <£70k
£70k to <£80k
£80k to <£90k
£90k to <100k
£100k to <£110k
£110k to <£120k
£120k to <£130k
£130k to <£140k
£140k to <£150k
£150k to <£160k
£160k to <£170k
£170k to <£180k
£180k to <£190k
£190k to <£200k
£200k to <£220k
£220k to <£240k
£240k +
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
No. households
35
25
16
denotes lower quartile entry-level price
Kendal
58.6
4.2
7.9
12.2
6.8
0.0
0.0
10.2
100.0
67
Kendal
Rural
33.8
9.4
9.5
11.6
1.2
6.4
7.6
13.7
1.6
3.8
0.9
0.5
100.0
92
Ulverston
and
South
Furness Lakeland
42.6
49.7
24.1
10.4
13.0
9.8
0.0
6.9
2.8
4.4
6.5
4.4
7.2
5.8
3.8
7.0
1.6
100.0
93
100.0
316
Source: 2011 household survey; rebased to 2011 census
Property type preferences
4.90 Analysis of property type preferences (Table 4.26) suggests that, primarily,
delivery of houses is a priority (with 42.2% stating an expectation of moving to a
house), followed by flats (38.8%) and bungalows (19.1%).
Table 4.26
Property type preferences
Type
preferences
House
Flat/Apartment
Bungalow
Total
Base (annual
requirement)
Existing (%)
46.6
25.6
27.8
100.0
Newlyforming
(%)
40.1
44.8
15.1
100.0
Total
(%)
42.2
38.8
19.1
100.0
276
602
878
Source: 2011 household survey; rebased to 2011 census
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
91
Relative affordability of affordable housing
Overview
4.91 Affordable rent is now the main type of new affordable supply and in addition
Registered Providers are being encouraged to convert a proportion of
affordable/social rented properties at Affordable Rent at re-let. The principal aim
of this model is to use the new Affordable Rent product, together with new
flexibilities on the use of existing assets, to generate additional financial capacity
to support new supply.
4.92 Affordable Rented homes are generally made available to tenants at up to a
maximum of 80% of market rents and allocated in the same way as social
housing is at present. Landlords have the freedom to offer Affordable Rent
properties on flexible tenancies tailored to the housing needs of individual
households. The government has introduced a series of other measures such
as changes to tenure (no longer a requirement to offer lifetime tenancies,
flexibility to offer shorter terms with a minimum of two years); greater flexibility
for local authorities in their strategic housing role and options to increase mobility
for social tenants20.
4.93 The potential impact of affordable rent on the relative affordability of rental
options is explored in Table 4.27. Because social rents (based on RSL rents) are
relatively high, adjusting them to reflect 80% of market rents would actually
increase the relative affordability of social renting.
Table 4.27
Relative affordability of renting options
Existing households in need
Can afford
Cannot afford
Total
Base (total backlog need)
Average
Social Rent
(%)
51.6
48.4
100.0
Affordable Rent (%)
(80 % average market
rent)
32.3
67.7
100.0
Average
Market
Rent (%)
18.0
82.0
100
4,437
4,437
4,437
Source: 2011 RSL rents (average £362 per month); 2012/13 Private sector average rents
(average £636 per month)
20
Homes and Communities Agency website
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
92
Core Output 8: Estimates of household groups who have
particular housing requirements
Introduction
4.94 There are a range of household groups who have particular housing
requirements.
Families
4.95 Families account for around 27.4% of households across South Lakeland
District. Analysis of market preferences (Table 4.19) suggests that:
 Couples with children had a strong preference for houses, particularly
detached and semi-detached houses; and households were most likely to
consider properties with three or more bedrooms;
 Lone Parent families were most likely to consider semi-detached and terraced
houses and properties with three bedrooms;
 Couples with non-dependent (adult) children were likely to consider detached
houses, with a smaller proportion also considering caravans/park homes;
amongst lone parents with non-dependent children there was a strong
preference for large terraced houses, followed by semi-detached houses; in
terms of house size, there was a preference for three bedrooms (couples) and
two bedrooms (lone parents).
4.96 Analysis of affordable housing requirements suggests there is an ongoing need
for a range of dwelling types including dwellings with two, three and four
bedrooms to address the needs of families. It is important that particular care is
taken to ensure that properties are built to reflect the demand from families and
in the interests of long-term community sustainability.
Older people
4.97 A major strategic challenge for the Council is to ensure a range of appropriate
housing provision, adaptation and support for South Lakeland District’s growing
older population. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to
increase by 23.7% from 25,326 in 2011 to 31,311 by 2021.
4.98 The vast majority of older people want to stay in their own homes with help and
support when needed and the vast majority are owner occupiers (Table 4.28).
There is also a degree of interest in new forms of older persons’
accommodation, for instance open market dwellings, sheltered accommodation
(to rent or buy) and rented extra care housing (to rent or buy), as summarised in
Table 4.28. Providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the
potential to free-up larger family accommodation (although price could still
remain a barrier to entry).
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93
Table 4.28
Older persons’ housing options
Housing option
Continue to live in current home with support when needed
Buying a property on the open market
Rent a property from a private landlord
Rent from HA / Registered Social Landlord / Registered Provider
Sheltered accommodation - To Rent
Sheltered accommodation - To Buy
Sheltered accommodation - Part Rent / Buy (shared ownership)
Extra care housing - To Rent
Extra care housing - To Buy
Extra care housing - Part Rent / Buy (shared ownership)
Residential care home
Co-housing
Base (Valid Responses)
Base (Households responding)
% would consider
73.5
21.7
7.6
15.2
17.8
17.5
7.2
12.5
12.3
4.6
7.4
12.3
48,207
22,997
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
General support requirements
4.99 The 2011 Household Survey provided evidence of the need for particular
adaptations across all households. Particularly noted are better heating, more
insulation and double glazing, each of which are mentioned by over 12% of
households (Table 4.29). Overall, of all households containing one or more
people with an illness or disability, 10.2% have had their home adapted, 13.7%
required care or support to enable the person to live in their current home and
72.9% stated they had sufficient space in their home for a carer to stay overnight
if it was needed.
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94
Table 4.29
Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years
Adaptations Required
Need
now
Need
in next
5 years
Total
%
Households
Better heating
3166
2699
5,865
More insulation
4215
2038
6,253
Double glazing
3014
2112
5,125
To kitchen
920
919
1,839
To bathrooms
1021
2403
3,424
Internal handrails
666
1884
2,550
External handrails
625
1278
1,903
Downstairs WC
482
827
1,309
Stairlift
345
1212
1,556
Improved access
315
729
1,044
Wheelchair access
99
621
719
Lever door handles
95
254
349
Room for a carer
163
345
508
Community alarm
381
1021
1,403
Security alarm
903
818
1,721
Increase size of property
1063
1375
2,438
Base (Total Households)
46,552
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
12.6
13.4
11.0
3.9
7.4
5.5
4.1
2.8
3.3
2.2
1.5
0.8
1.1
3.0
3.7
5.2
4.100 The household survey also provides information on the need for other forms of
assistance, highlighting the particular need for help with repair and maintenance
of the home and help with gardening (Table 4.30) across all households. This
provides valuable evidence of the need for a service to support people through
the process of installing adaptations and the removal of Housing Health and
Safety Rating System Category 1 hazards in private dwellings.
Table 4.30
Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years
Support required
Need
now
(no.
h'holds)
Need in
5 years
(no.
h'holds)
Help with repair and maintenance
of home
3849
6322
Help with gardening
4503
4828
Help with cleaning home
3350
3850
Help with other practical tasks
2077
2973
Help with personal care
1216
2194
Want company / friendship
1285
1415
Base (total households)
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
Total
(no.
h'holds)
10171
9331
7200
5050
3410
2700
46552
Total as %
of all
households
21.8
20.0
15.5
10.8
7.3
5.8
95
Specialist support requirements
4.101 The Supporting People team have a particular responsibility to ensure that there
is adequate accommodation and support provision for a range of specialist client
requirements e.g. domestic violence, HIV/Aids, Offending/Ex-Offending and
Teenage Pregnancy.
4.102 Table 4.31 summarises the type of client groups accommodated in
affordable/social rented housing across South Lakeland over the period 2010/11
to 2012/13. PR specialist provision in South Lakeland District particularly
focuses on accommodating older people with support needs and homeless
families with support needs.
Table 4.31 Client groups accommodated in affordable/social rented sector in South
Lakeland District 2010/11 to 2012/13.
Client group
People with physical or sensory disabilities
People with learning disabilities
People with mental health problems
People with alcohol problems
Offenders and people at risk of offending
Older people with support needs
Single homeless people with support needs
Homeless families with support needs
Young people at risk
Total
2010/11
0
1
15
6
15
62
16
0
0
115
2011/12
4
5
11
7
14
87
15
0
13
156
2012/13
0
0
7
13
7
96
11
66
12
212
Annual
Average
1
2
11
9
12
82
14
22
8
161
Source: Supported CORE lettings data
Stakeholder views on specialist housing
4.103 Recent housing and political changes were felt to have impacted in South
Lakeland as follows:
 The lack of a ring fence for Supporting People funding means that it is at risk
of being used to fund other County Council services and priorities;
 Funding has decreased over recent years and it is projected to fall further
when services are re-commissioned in 2016;
 There are concerns over the quality of services delivered as providers are
forced to recruit staff at ever reducing wage levels, which can mean increased
staff turnover and reduced quality of services provided for clients; and
 Homelessness impacts upon the ability to deliver appropriate services and
support to people, which in turn exacerbates their needs.
4.104 Stakeholders were asked to identify what changes they have been experiencing
in respect of their client group. Comments included:
 There has been an increased drive on homelessness prevention and a Policy
has been adopted to discharge the homelessness duty in the private rented
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96
sector. As a result, homelessness presentations have decreased significantly
over the last couple of years;
 There is anecdotal evidence that there are increasing numbers of people
presenting as homeless with complex needs;
 There is an increase in the number of people being cared for at home with
dementia;
 The number of elderly people being cared for at home with multiple health
problems has increased;
 There are larger numbers of elderly people using mobility scooters to increase
their ability to get around independently to improve their quality of life; and
 There are fairly static numbers of younger people in transition each year who
have profound physical and learning disabilities and require 24 hour
supervision, who have no real options within current social landlord
arrangements and need to share accommodation requiring adaptation to cope
with their needs.
4.105 A number of barriers to the delivery of new specialist housing provision were
identified by respondents, including:
 Land values;
 Funding;
 Lack of staff; and
 Cost of care in an independent setting.
4.106 A range of independent living housing stock shortages were identified, including:
 Move on accommodation for young people;
 Ground floor housing for the elderly/people with mobility difficulties;
 Non-ground floor flats that are accessible other than by stairs; and
 Ground floor affordable family housing.
4.107 The costs associated with physical property adaptations was highlighted as an
issue, as was the inability of some properties to be adapted to meet the needs of
residents. The restricted nature of adaptations budgets and the high cost of
undertaking adaptations mean that resources can quickly disappear on a
relatively small number of adaptations. The re-use of facilities, equipment and
indeed adapted homes was also highlighted as an issue.
4.108 The logistics and costs associated with delivering Lifetime Homes was
highlighted as an issue by one respondent. Despite this, the high demand for
and cost of delivering adaptations means that new homes need to provide
facilities that are capable of being easily adapted. One respondent identified that
new homes should provide ‘square shaped low level based shower facilities that
can accommodate a free standing shower seat and the person. The variance in
levels around the property is also a key issue, many homes have one level
access point and but also a second access that has a significant fall or rise
resulting in stepped access point to the garden/second access. The need for
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wheelchair access and storage within the property and scooter access and
storage in proximity to new build properties.’
4.109 The following increases in demand were identified by respondents:
 Floating support;
 Older people;
 Dementia care services; and
 Young people in supported independent living.
4.110 In terms of new provision, the following were identified as being required:
 Core and cluster care and housing arrangements would greatly help with
adults with learning disabilities or elderly who need some support but also
need independence and their own front door. There is also considered to be a
need for more inclusive design so that the development does not establish
one type housing in one area, this would lend to a more community
awareness, tolerance and inclusion;
 One or two bed properties of older people either ground floor accommodation
or with lift access. Provision for vehicles is also required;
 Sheltered housing and warden monitored bungalows;
 One and two bed Bungalows;
 Easily adapted smaller properties;
 Extra care housing is needed in Elverson (64 by 2019); Grange over Sands
(42 by 2019); Milnthorpe (52 by 2019); Kirkby Lonsdale (9 by 2019); and
Sedbergh (11 by 2019) (source: Planning4Care and POPGROUP); and
 There needs to be a variety of homes that meet the changing needs of
tenants and home owners. All homes should ideally take account of the
straight flight stair case that is wide enough to fit a stair lift and have a ground
floor toilet that is large enough to accommodate a level access shower or an
adjacent space to achieve the same as outlined. Where there are aging
owners or families who need to accommodate an elderly relative. One
bedroomed ground floor or flats accessible other than just via stairs with level
access points to all access points should be supported. Homes should also
contain shower rooms that have adequate space and design to accommodate
the person and any walking aids and a carer as required.
4.111 Respondents felt that the following key messages were important in respect of
specialist housing:
 Consideration needs to be given to people’s support systems;
 Greater levels of housing to meet the needs of the District’s ageing population
are required;
 More move on accommodation is needed;
 There needs to be recognition that there are a variety of housing options
available to people depending on care need and disability including:
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 Availability of independently tenanted one bedroomed properties that have
a carer based facility that can provide care to several people on shared
cost;
 Availability of extra care housing for people who need more care
throughout each day;
 Three bedroomed family bungalows through social housing on each
development site to accommodate families with profoundly disabled
children, or disabled parents looking after their family;
 Level access design or accessible flats with adequate safe storage area for
mobility scooter vehicles;
 Facilities with low thresholds at the access points and no threshold or
changing levels between rooms or outside access points; and
 Square Level access shower facilities in all new builds instead of baths.
Homeless households
4.112 Homelessness statistics for 2012/1321 indicate that a total of 82 decisions were
made on households declaring themselves as homeless across South Lakeland
District (Table 4.32). Of these households, 27 were classified as homeless and
in priority need. Over the four years 2009/10 to 2012/13, there have been an
average of 184 homelessness decisions and 45 households accepted as
homeless.
21
CLG Homeless Statistics Table 627: Local Authorities' action under the homelessness provisions of
the 1985 and 1996 Housing Acts, by Sub-Area
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
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Table 4.32
Homeless decisions and acceptances 2009/10 to 2012/13
Year
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Total
Annual Average
Decisions made
134
164
355
82
735
184
Accepted as homeless
55
51
48
27
181
45
Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic households
4.113 There is limited ethnic diversity across the Barrow and Furness Borough area,
with the Household Survey indicating that 97.6% of Heads of Household
described themselves as White British. A further 1.9% were from other White
groups and 0.5% were other ethnicities
4.114 Overall, 13.9% of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) households were in
some form of housing need which compares with 9.5% for the overall population.
The reason cited for being in need included overcrowding and dwelling lacking a
bathroom/kitchen/w and not have the resources to address this..
4.115 The needs of Gypsies and Travellers has been assessed as part of a Cumbriawide study published in late 2013. This identified a current supply of 1 authorised
Gypsy and Traveller pitches across South Lakeland District and no shortfalls in
provision over the period 2013/14 to 2027/28. The study recommended the
provision of up to 8 transit pitches within the District.
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5.
Objectively Assessed Need, NPPF requirements and
occupancy restrictions.
5.1
Paragraph 159 of the NPPF states that Local Planning Authorities should have a
clear understanding of housing needs in their area and they should:

5.2
Prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing
needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas
cross administrative boundaries. The SHMA should identify the scale and
mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to
need over the plan period that:
-
Meets household and population projections, taking account of
migration and demographic change;
-
Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable
housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as,
but not limited to families with children, older people, people with
disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own
homes); and
-
Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply
necessary to meet this demand.
Core outputs presented in Chapter 4 provided a range of information on the
requirements for both market and affordable housing. The purpose of this
chapter is to consolidate the key messages relating to overall housing
requirements, show how the SHMA evidence base satisfies NPPF requirements
and provides evidence to help the Council in deciding the scale of new build it
should be planning for.
Objectively assessed need for housing
5.3
SHMAs need to identify the scale of housing needed to meet household and
population projections over the plan period.
5.4
The South Lakeland Core Strategy has made provision for 400 additional
dwellings over the period to 2025. This is set against a context of falling levels of
property transactions and falling build rates, due in part to reduce housing
targets at a regional and local level from 2003 to 2006; and the completion of the
majority of Local Plan housing allocations and a currently constrained supply of
sites.
5.5
The current market situation (a relatively balanced market demand and an
ongoing shortfall of affordable housing) in South Lakeland is also being
influenced by the national economic situation and a slowdown reflects economic
uncertainties and restricted housing finance. Regarding the scale of household
growth across South Lakeland (See Appendix C for details), Household
projections suggest a growth in households (using POPGROUP modelling) of
between -89 and 530 each year to 2032; with latest CLG household projections
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101
suggesting an increase of around 208 each year over the period 2011 to 2021.
The latest ONS population and CLG household projections are expected to be
released during 2014.
5.6
It is proposed that the Objectively Assessed Need for housing across South
Lakeland District is based on household growth of between 208 (CLG household
projections to 2021) and 530 (POPGROUP Labour Force forecast). This would
require between 218 and 607 dwellings across the District.
5.7
As South Lakeland District is split between three Local Planning Authority areas,
the Objectively Assessed Need figure needs to be split further. It is understood
that the Lake District National Park is seeking to deliver around 60 dwellings
each year of which 40 are in South Lakeland District. A small number of
dwellings are also likely to be delivered in the Yorkshire Dales National Park
Planning Authority Area, although accurate figures are not available. Excluding
the Yorkshire Dales National Park Planning Authority Area, this would result in a
range of between 178 and 567 dwellings across the South Lakeland Local
Planning Authority area. A target of 400 dwellings each year is just above the
midpoint of these two dwelling estimates.
5.8
Ultimately, the actual scale of housing delivery will be influenced by a range of
factors and the Core Strategy provides a broad framework within which future
development can be positioned.
Market housing: key issues
5.9
A range of material was presented in Chapter 4 relating to market housing. Key
issues relating to market housing supply and demand are:
 There is an annual supply of around 2,260 market dwellings of which 1,303
are owner occupied and 957 are private rented;
 Across South Lakeland as a whole there is a general balance between supply
and demand for market accommodation (Table 4.4). There are some specific
imbalances including:
 An overall shortfall in Central Lakes, Dales and Kendal Rural market areas;
and across Ambleside, Cartmel Peninsula Rural, Grange over Sands,
Kirkby Lonsdale, Milnthorpe and Ulverston.
 Varying shortfalls in dwelling types and sizes across the District.
5.10 The aspirations and expectations of existing households planning to move in the
next five years are presented in Table 4.18. Of households moving, most would
like to move to a house (72.8%), 19% would like to move to a bungalow and
8.2% to a flat. This compares with 71.5% who expect to move to a house, 15.7%
a bungalow and 12.4% a flat. Table 4.12 considers how expectations vary by
household type and indicates that:
 Houses remain the most popular choice for most household types,
particularly semi-detached houses and properties with two and three
bedrooms;
 Older singles and older couples were more likely to expect to move to a
bungalow;
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 Singles (under 65) were more likely to expect to move to a small terraced
house, and couples with no children (under 65) into a semi-detached
house;

Overall:
 One bedroom properties were expected to be moved to by singles and
singles and older singles,
 two bedroom properties were mainly expected to be moved to by singles
(under 65 and older), couples (under 65 and older), lone parents with adult
children living at home and other types of household;
 44.3% of all households expected to move to a three bedroom property
and in particular lone parents, couples with 1or 2 children and couples with
adult children; and
 four bedroom properties were expected to be moved to by couples with
children (under 18), couples with no children and other types of household.
5.11 This evidence helps the Council to ascertain the range of dwellings which should
be developed within South Lakeland District to help address shortfalls in market
requirements. If the broad expectations of households were translated into how
future development should proceed, the following split between property types
would be suggested:
 Houses 71.5%
 Bungalows 15.7%
 Flats 12.4%
5.12 The Council should pay particular attention to Tables 4.4 and 4.5, which
reviewed general market supply and demand, to help in discussions with
developers regarding the type and size of market housing to be delivered within
South Lakeland District.
5.13 Analysis of the relative affordability of open market housing clearly indicates the
housing market is split between households who could afford up to lower quartile
prices (45.6%), households who could afford between lower quartile and upper
quartile prices (24.6%) and households who could afford prices above the upper
quartile price (25.8%). This would suggest the potential for low-cost market
housing development at prices around the lower quartile price across the
District.
5.14 Decisions regarding the nature of future open market development should be
informed by this evidence but also informed by the market intelligence of
developers.
Affordable housing: key issues
5.15 A full breakdown of the size of affordable housing required for both general
needs and older people is presented at Table 4.18. This is derived from a
comprehensive analysis of affordable housing requirements presented at
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
103
Appendix D. In summary, data suggests a net requirement of 687 general
needs affordable dwellings each year over the period 2014/15 to 2018/19, with a
recommendation to deliver:
 61.9% smaller one and two bedroom general needs (425)
 26.4% larger three and four bedroom general needs (182);
 11.7% older person one and two bedroom dwellings (80)
5.16 Analysis suggested there is a shortfall of affordable older persons’
accommodation but this only relates to affordable dwellings and not to general
market or specialist provision for older people (such as extra care schemes).
5.17 An analysis of the property type preferences of households in need and newlyforming households would suggest the following profile of property types:
 42.2% houses;
 38.8% flats; and
 19.1% bungalows.
5.18 Further advice on policy considerations for affordable housing is presented at
Appendix H.
Stakeholder views on new development
5.19 Stakeholders identified limited new development; some mothballed schemes are
apparently coming forward and it is apparent that new supply is increasing. In
addition to economic factors linked to the recession, restrictive planning policies
and a lack of housing site allocations were identified as having contributed to low
levels of supply.
5.20 Stakeholders identified the following in respect of locations for new development:
 New homes should be delivered in major towns, key service centres and
settlements in the first instance with some provision outside of these areas;
 Brownfield sites;
 No large scale developments, smaller sites coming forward; and
 Sustainable locations well connected to existing services and infrastructure.
5.21 There was no overall consensus from stakeholders as to what type of housing
should be delivered in South Lakeland and a range of views were expressed
including:
 All types of housing – one to four bed homes;
 Open market three and four bed homes with affordable house prices
determined by the Council’s local needs assessment;
 A mix of two and three bed semi-detached and terraced properties with some
two bed retirement bungalows and apartments;
 One and two bed homes for older people;
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
104
 A mix of property types depending upon the evidence of what is needed for a
given locality; and
 New house types capable of being adapted easily to meet the needs of an
ageing population.
5.22 Of developers responding to the survey with land holdings in South Lakeland, all
but one had Greenfield sites; one had both Greenfield and brownfield sites, only
one had just brownfield.
5.23 Stakeholders identified a number of barriers to new provision including:
 Planning policy, which was identified as confusing by one respondent;
 Lack of suitable sites;
 Cost of entry, red tape and delays in/length of time taken to determine
planning decisions;
 Development finance;
 Local opposition and NIBYism;
 Lack of services and infrastructure;
 Planning restrictions;
 Land costs, in particular the downward pressure on land values as a result of
planning policy requirements (35% affordable housing and CIL); and
 Site issues such as land contamination, access, and drainage.
5.24 Stakeholders felt that the market for new build homes would continue to
strengthen and increase especially into 2015 and beyond as sites come on
stream from the new DPD. The impact of Help to Buy was highlighted with a
possible dip in demand being anticipated when this programme comes to an
end.
5.25 In terms of key message concerning housing markets being reflected in the
SHMA update, stakeholders wanted to see the following:
 Affordable housing as a priority, especially homes for affordable rent;
 Larger homes and starter homes need to be provided;
 Local opinions and views need to be taken into account;
 Transparency and certainty are needed in the planning system;
 Plans for new homes need to be considered sensibly;
 New homes need to be accessible to local people and services, and be
affordable to heat and run;
 More housing is needed to help increase supply and counter further price
rises;
 An assessment of ‘objectively assessed need’ to be undertaken in line with
NPPF; and
 That there is sufficient emphasis on delivering homes to meet the needs of an
ageing population.
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105
Restrictions on occupancy of new dwellings
5.26 Occupancy restrictions on open market dwellings are being considered by
several Cumbrian Districts The 2011 household survey asked households their
views on whether restrictions should be placed on new housing built in their
Parish/area. Overall:

43.4% stated that new housing should only be occupied by people with a
local connection (for instance a resident in the Parish/area for at least three
years or permanently employed in the Parish/area);
 39.9% stated that new housing should be available for those occupying it as
their sole or main residence; and
 16.7% stated that new housing should be available to anyone wanting to buy
or rent on the open market.
5.27 Table 5.1 explores the extent to which households would support a local
occupancy policy by market area and demonstrates strongest support in the
Central Lakes and Dales.
Table 5.1
Views on occupancy restrictions by market area
Restrictions on occupancy
Market Areas (%)
Cartmel
Peninsula
Central
Lakes
New housing only to be
occupied by people with a local
connection
43.8
54.7
Be available for those occupying
it as their sole or main residence
43.1
33.5
Be available to anyone wanting
to buy or rent on the open
market
13.2
11.9
Total
100.0
100.0
Total HHs responding
4342
5835
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
Ulverston
and
Furness
Total
Dales
Kendal
Kendal
Rural
50.2
42.0
42.3
38.7
43.4
41.4
39.0
41.0
42.0
39.9
8.3
100.0
1465
19.0
100.0
12016
16.7
100.0
10080
19.3
100.0
10199
16.7
100.0
43937
5.28 Table 5.2 considers the specific reasons why households considered the need
for local occupancy restrictions on new dwellings. Most households (86.2%) felt
that local people were being out-priced by people moving into South Lakeland,
that restrictions would help keep young people in their local area (72.7%) and it
would help people to remain living/working in their area (69.9%).
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106
Table 5.2
Reasons for occupancy restrictions
Reasons for occupancy
restrictions
Local people are being out-priced
by people moving into South
Lakeland
The number of second homes in my
parish/town/town is increasing
The number of holiday homes in my
parish/town is increasing
It is difficult for older people already
living in my parish/town to find
suitable accommodation
Young people are being forced to
move away from their local area
It would help people to remain
living/working in their area
Market Areas (%)
Kendal
Kendal
Rural
Ulverston
and
Furness
88.0
89.5
86.7
79.0
86.2
72.9
66.4
48.6
45.8
46.9
53.3
54.9
75.3
61.2
41.5
42.0
44.1
49.6
33.7
50.5
46.4
31.8
32.2
32.9
35.8
70.7
82.3
78.3
68.7
73.7
69.2
72.7
68.6
78.9
68.5
67.5
69.9
66.9
69.9
68.7
779
55.9
5517
70.9
4660
60.8
4342
64.3
20623
Cartmel
Peninsula
Central
Lakes
84.8
89.9
60.2
It would help maintain a balanced
community, with people of different
ages and income groups living in
the locality
64.8
72.0
Total HHs responding
2037
3289
Source: 2011 Household Survey; rebased to 2011 census
Dales
Origin of residents moving into newbuild dwellings
5.29 Table 5.3 summarises the origins of residents moving into newbuild/converted
open market dwellings over the past five years. This demonstrates that overall
75.9% of moving households had originated from within South Lakeland District
and 24.1% had moved into the District. Within South Lakeland, the proportion
moving from outside the District exceeded 50% in Sedbergh and Ulverston Key
Service Centres. Overall, 18.2% of residents moving into newbuild/converted
dwellings in the Lake District National Park had moved from outside the District,
compared with 61.9% for the Sedbergh area of the Yorkshire Dales National
Park and 24.4% for areas outside the National Park.
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107
Total
Table 5.3
Origin of residents moving into newbuild/converted dwellings
Location
Housing Market Area
Cartmel Peninsula
Central Lakes
Dales
Kendal
Kendal Rural
Ulverston and Furness
Total
Local Planning Authority
LDNP
YDNP
Not in NP
Total
Base
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South Lakeland SHMA Update 2014
Previous residential location
From
Outside
Within South
South
Lakeland (%) Lakeland (%)
Total
Base
78.1
79.1
38.1
92.8
62.6
52.0
75.9
21.9
20.9
61.9
7.2
37.4
48.0
24.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
68
71
9
315
159
137
759
81.8
38.1
75.6
75.9
759
18.2
61.9
24.4
24.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
82
9
668
759
108
People moving away
5.30 The household survey asked a series of questions around the extent to which
people had moved away from their local area. Overall, 2570 (6.1%) of
households stated that someone had moved away from their local area in the
past five years due to difficulties in finding a suitable home locally. Around 4,000
individuals have moved away from their local area on the basis of household
survey information. Of these, there is detailed information on 3,345 people who
had moved away from their local area. Of these, around 930 had remained in
South Lakeland District (29%) and had moved in particular to the urban areas of
Kendal and Ulverston. A further 71% had moved out of the District, particularly to
Lancaster District (573 or 17.3 %).
5.31 Based on the survey information, it is suggested that around 4,000 individuals
have left South Lakeland because they had difficulties in finding a suitable home
locally (around 800 each year). Reasons for moving were particularly associated
with buying and moving to a first home:
 26.6% wanted to buy;
 25.2% wanted their own home/to live independently;
 18.3% could not afford rent/mortgage payments;
 10.5% moved to be closer to work/new job; and
 6.8% were forced to move.
5.32 Around 65.9% of these people were children moving away from home (in effect
newly-forming households).
A local occupancy policy
5.33 Local occupancy restrictions already apply to affordable housing. A majority of
survey respondents have stated that there should be some restriction on
occupancy, either limited to local residents or the dwellings should be used as a
principal residence. Additionally, survey evidence demonstrates that there is a
particular outflow from local communities of young people leaving parental
homes.
5.34 It could be argued that having local occupancy clauses would provide a
mechanism to help local people remain in their communities.
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6.
Conclusion: policy and strategic issues
6.1
This document has been prepared to provide robust, defensible and transparent
information to help inform strategic decision-making and the formulation of
appropriate housing and planning policies. It has delivered core outputs required
under the CLG Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance, which are
underpinned by comprehensive technical appendices and has completely
refreshed the 2011 SHMA.
6.2
The work also takes account of the new National Planning Policy Framework
and takes account of the National Planning Policy Guidance. The SHMA will
help local authorities plan for a mix of housing based on current and future
demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the
community. Specifically, the SHMA identifies the size, type and tenure of market
housing required and also identifies a continued affordable housing requirement
across the South Lakeland District area.
6.3
This concluding chapter summarises key messages from the research findings,
structured around a commentary on the current and future housing markets; the
interactions of South Lakeland with other areas; and considers strategic
priorities.
The current housing market
6.4
This study provides up to date information on the housing stock in South
Lakeland District. The 2011 census reports that there are a total of 53,422
dwellings a total of 46,522 households. Overall, across South Lakeland:

72.3% of properties are houses, 14.6% bungalows, 12.6%
flats/maisonettes, and 0.7% are other property types (e.g. caravans);

42.1% of properties were built before 1945, a further 37.8% were built
between 1945 and 1984 and the remaining 20.2% have been built since
1985;

73.0% of properties are owner-occupied, 16.1% are privately rented and
10.9% are affordable (social/Affordable Rent and intermediate tenure). This
compares with regional figures of 64.5% for owner occupation, 18.8%
affordable tenures and 16.7% private renting;
are
Market interactions and self-containment
6.5
A range of material has been gathered to help identify market drivers and the
characteristics of housing market areas across South Lakeland District and
linkages with other areas.
6.6
An analysis of household mobility suggests that of households moving in the
past five years, two-thirds (66.6%) moved within South Lakeland District and
33.4% had moved into the area. In terms of the origin of household moves, there
are links with Barrow in Furness, elsewhere in the North West and elsewhere in
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the UK. South Lakeland District cannot be described as a self-contained housing
market area, albeit there are market interactions with other areas.
6.7
In terms of travel to work patterns, 80.2% of residents work in South Lakeland
and 19.8% work outside the District, most notably Barrow in Furness, Lancaster
and outside of the North West.
6.8
The CLG suggest that a housing market is self-contained if at least 70% of
moves / workplaces are within the market area. In terms of migration, South
Lakeland is not a self-contained housing market area, with 33.4% of moving
households originating from outside the District. In terms of household mobility,
the market area includes parts of Barrow in Furness, elsewhere in the North
West and elsewhere in the UK.
6.9
In terms of travel to work, a different pattern emerges, and it can be argued that
South Lakeland is a functional market area. Only 19.8% of Heads of Household
in employment work outside of South Lakeland District, most notably Barrow in
Furness, Lancaster and outside of the North West.
Future housing market
6.10 Household forecasts point to an overall increase in around 2,083 households
across South Lakeland over the period 2011 to 2021. Although the overall
number of households is expected to increase, the ageing population means that
the number of older person households will increase markedly;
6.11 Managing demographic change will become an increasingly important issue.
Population forecasts prepared by the Council suggest that the proportion of the
population in South Lakeland aged 65 and over will continue to grow, with a
21.8% increase over the period 2011 to 2021 (from 25,326 to 31,311). The
number aged 85 and over is expected to increase by 28.3% (from 7,398 in 2011
to 9,495 by 2021).
6.12 Although the total number of households is predicted to grow overall, there is
significant variation in trends across the age groups. The greatest increase
(1,626 households) will be from households with a Head of Household aged 7584. There will be growth in all age groups where the Head of Household is aged
over 55, and a reduction in all age groups where the Head of Household is aged
below 55.
Housing need and demand
Delivering new housing
6.13 A challenge for South Lakeland District is to align future housing development
with trends relating to household growth, household aspirations and the need for
affordable housing. Crucially, the nature of household change needs to be better
reflected in strategic housing and planning policies.
6.14 Analysis of general market aspirations and expectations suggests that:
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
Of households moving, most would like to move to a house (72.8%), 19.0%
would like to move to a bungalow and 8.2% to move to a flat. This compares
with 71.5% who expect to move to a house, 15.7% to a bungalow and 12.4%
to a flat. A much higher proportion would like to move to a detached house
(52.0%) but 27.3% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move
to a semi-detached house (25.1%) than would prefer to (14.1%).

In terms of property size, the majority of respondents expect to move to a
property with two (29.3%), three (45.8%) or four or more (19.1%) bedrooms.
A higher proportion of households would like a property with four or more
bedrooms (29.3%).
6.15 Future development should focus on delivering housing to address identified
requirements and help to address the mismatches between aspirations and
expectations.
6.16 In terms of affordable housing, an annual net shortfall of 687 affordable
dwellings has been calculated based on the CLG housing needs assessment
model presented in the CLG SHMA guidance. It must be reiterated that this is
the degree of imbalance that exists between the need for affordable housing and
supply based on parameters set by the CLG guidance (for instance the
proportion of income which should be spent on housing).
6.17 The research would suggest a profile of 61.9% smaller one and two bedroom
general needs; 26.4% larger three and four bedroom general needs; and 11.7%
older person one and two bedroom dwellings.
6.18 In summary, key drivers in determining the tenure and type of future
development include:

The need to continue development to satisfy household aspirations and
expectations;

Responding to the impact of demographic change on dwelling requirements
and in particular developing an increasing range of housing and support
products for older people. Adopting lifetime homes standards should be
viewed as a priority along with diversifying the range of newbuild dwellings
appropriate for a growing number of older person households whilst
maintaining the delivery of homes to reflect the aspirations of economically
active and younger households;

Delivering additional affordable housing to help offset the identified net
shortfalls; and diversifying the range of affordable options by developing
intermediate tenure dwellings and products;

The economic viability of delivering affordable housing on sites across South
Lakeland District
Improving the quality of existing stock
6.19 Strategic challenges include reducing the level of vacant dwellings and
improving the quality of existing dwellings through better energy efficiency and
modernisation.
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Empty stock
6.20 There are an estimated 1,037 long-term empty properties22 across the South
Lakeland District area and these are mainly in the private sector. Properties can
be empty for a variety of reasons which include: the properties are too difficult to
repair or are in the process of being repaired; they are in the process of being
sold; they have been bought for capital investment or they are in probate.
6.21 The Council should continue to consider identifying the reasons why properties
are empty and identify mechanisms for bringing them back into use.
Mechanisms could include:

Financial/professional help for repairs and improvements in the form of
equity loans; grant aid for renovation and subsequent leasing to a Housing
Association for a fixed term; a professional service to manage repairs or full
renovation; and

Assistance with letting management or the sale of a property.
Satisfaction and repair
6.22 Although the vast majority of households (80.8%) were satisfied with the
condition of their dwellings, 7.5% of households were dissatisfied or very
dissatisfied. Levels of dissatisfaction were highest among private renters
(particularly those in unfurnished accommodation), households living in
caravans/park homes and maisonnettes, and households living in older (pre1919) properties.
6.23 Improving the energy efficiency of dwellings and modernisation of stock is an
important driver to improving the quality of existing stock and extends beyond
those households expressing dissatisfaction. Given the need to reduce energy
consumption, improve thermal comfort and future proof households from spikes
in energy prices, retrofitting stock with improved insulation, heating systems and
solar panels is likely to become a significant strategic issue.
The ageing population and addressing the needs of vulnerable
people
6.24 The proportion of older people is expected to increase over the next decade.
Between 2011 and 2021, most projections point to a decline in the number of
households headed by someone aged under 55. The CLG household
projections suggest a decrease of 1,744 households headed by someone under
55. This compares with an expected increase of 3,828 in households headed by
someone aged 55 or older.
6.25 This trend has significant policy implications, given the greater need for
appropriate housing and support as people age. Currently, the majority want to
stay in their own homes with help and support when needed.
22
October 2012 DCLG Table 615
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6.26 A key challenge is to ensure a greater diversity of support services are made
available to older people wanting to stay in their own home and develop funding
mechanisms to achieve this.
6.27 Additionally, the range of housing options available to older people needs to be
diversified, for instance through the development of open market housing
marketed at older people, the development of Extra Care accommodation and
co-housing23.
NPPF requirements
6.28 Paragraph 159 of the NPPF states that Local Planning Authorities should have a
clear understanding of housing needs in their area and they should:

Prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing
needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas
cross administrative boundaries. The SHMA should identify the scale and
mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to
need over the plan period that:
-
Meets household and population projections, taking account of
migration and demographic change;
-
Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable
housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as,
but not limited to families with children, older people, people with
disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own
homes); and
-
Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply
necessary to meet this demand.
6.29 The material in this SHMA provides an evidence base to inform strategic
decision making. The SHMA has:

Considered future dwelling requirements on the basis of forecasts prepared
by the Council;

evidenced the scale of housing need and the specific affordable
requirements necessary to offset the imbalance between supply and need;

reviewed market demand and the range of dwellings required to satisfy
household expectations and aspirations;

considered interactions with other housing market areas, but confirms that
South Lakeland District is a self-contained housing market area based on
the travel to work patterns and origin of residents living in South Lakeland.
Forthcoming 2011 census travel to work data will provide detailed
information on the extent to which people work in South Lakeland and live
elsewhere.
23
Extra Care accommodation is designed with the needs of frailer older people in mind; it includes flats,
bungalows and retirement villages; residents have their own front door and domestic support and
personal care are available. Co-housing is your own home in a small community which shares facilities
(e.g. laundry) and activities
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
reflected upon the needs of different groups of the population in particular
older people and those requiring specialist support requirements.
Stakeholder consultation has ensured that the needs of a wide range of
people have been considered in the research.
6.30 This document has reported data relating to housing market signals and it would
be recommended that the Council regularly monitors trends in the following:
Market signals – price
House prices
Private rental market
Land values
Market signals - quantity
Housing need
New Development
Vacancy rates
Annual (quarterly) monitoring of prices by area/type),
number of transactions and time taken to sell)
Annual (quarterly) monitoring of the number of rentals
starting, time taken to let, price
Annual monitoring of residential land values (if data are
available)
Annual updating of housing needs modelling, taking
account of changes in the Housing Register and dwellings
being let;
Annual updating of the net number of dwellings built by
type/size and tenure
Annual update of the number of vacant dwellings
Final comments
6.31 Appropriate housing and planning policies have a fundamental role to play in the
delivery of thriving, inclusive and sustainable areas. These policies need to be
underpinned with high quality data. This study has provided a wealth of up-todate social, economic, demographic and housing data for the South Lakeland
District area.
6.32 This research has reflected upon the housing market attributes of the South
Lakeland area and interactions with other areas. The report signposts future
strategic challenges which include the ongoing delivery of new market and
affordable housing to address need and support economic growth; diversifying
the range of affordable tenures available to local residents; improving the
condition and energy efficiency of existing stock; and addressing the
requirements of an increasingly ageing population and vulnerable groups.
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