The Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan
JSC «National Center of State Scientific and Technical Expertise»
Report of Scenario of the development by
the direction of the
line “Sustainable Development of the Agricultural Sector, the Food
Processing and Safety” in the Kazakhstan up to the year 2030
Astana, 2013
Offered for review Scenario of development AIC (agro-industrial complex) is based on
the ability to meet people’s demands in food mainly due to the domestic production and ensure
food independence of the country from imports, which involves accelerated development of the
market of agricultural production.
Researches on the development of the present Scenario are not an attempt to predict, but
envisage an analysis of current trends and consideration of imaginary future possibilities of the
development of agriculture of Kazakhstan up to 2030. The Scenario is based on identifying key
trends and factors which have a significant impact on the direction of development opportunities
in the future. It also took into account the risks and limitations, “wild cards” inherent for
development of line over view on future while allowing the respond flexibility to all of the
possible situations, and used under conditions of uncertainty and rapidly changing
environment.
A brief summary contains the basic theses and the conclusions reached in the
development directions of the Scenario “Sustainable development of the agricultural sector,
the processing and food safety” in Kazakhstan for the period up to 2030 (hereinafter - the
Scenario). While the Scenario developing following theses were outlined:
1. GLOBAL CHALLENGES, TRENDS AND FACTORS OF DEVELOPMENT
2. KAZAKH TRENDS AND FACTORS
3. KEY DIRECTIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT “ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL
RESOURCES” TRENDS AND FACTORS
4. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
5. FUTURE WORLD AND KAZAKHSTAN MARKETS ANALYSIS
6. ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD STRATEGIES AND SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAMMES “ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES”
7. ANALYSIS OF THE KAZAKHSTAN STRATEGIES AND SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES “ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES”
8. ANALYSIS OF THE R&D IN THE WORLD, DETERMINATION OF THE LEADING
COUNTRIES
9. COMPETENCIES ANALYSIS OF R&D IN KAZAKHSTAN
10. ACTIVITIES STRATEGIES ON THE SCENARIO IMPLEMENTATION
11. “WILD CARDS”
12. RISKS AND THREATS OF THE SCENARIO
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Introduction
The main aim of the researches was to develop targeted recommendations for the science
and technology development in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the development direction of
“Sustainable development of the agricultural sector, the processing and food safety” for the period
up to 2030 based on the implementation of analytical and expert works.
The proposed Scenario of the direction development “Sustainable development of the
agricultural sector, the processing and food safety” in Kazakhstan till 2030 (hereinafter –
Scenario) is based on a forecast of moderate development of the global economy for a long period
of time with possible brief periods of recession (world’s GDP growth 1-2%, growth in the
developing countries – 4-6%). The Scenario involves the progressive development of the
economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which will allow to put gradually into operation new
energy and manufacturing capacities, focus on new resource-saving technologies with a
consideration of assured demand in agricultural and food products, and provides an opportunity of
the development of the export potential of organic agricultural products.
The Scenario development was including an analysis of the scientific and technical
information, government bodies reports, analytical reports of the leading national and
international research organizations, “Big Four” consulting firms, bibliometric and patent search
and scrutiny of the data provided by industry enterprises. The result of the compilation is
determination of the external and internal trends of science and technology development in the
direction of “Sustainable development of the agricultural sector, the processing and food safety”,
the definition of the key factors and their interactions that affect future development,
determination of the strengths and weaknesses, as well as determination of the opportunities and
threats from the external environment. Considered the competencies of Kazakhstan in the R&D
area, proposed strategies and a complex of measures for the direction development, determined
potential risks associated with the Scenario.
Visualizing of the future
Agriculture, along with the industry, energy and the service sector is a fundamental branch for
any state economy. The degree of food security as a key component of national security depends
on the level of its development. The agro-industrial complex structure decided to include
agriculture itself and all of the related activities areas associated with the storage and processing
of agricultural products.
There is a need to take into consideration that the present situation in the world is
characterized by, on the one hand, the presence of a huge number of hungry in the Third World,
on the other hand, excessive food production in the developed countries, where live not more than
20% of the world population. The population in the developing countries is growing faster than in
the developed and the opportunities for diversification of agricultural production are limited.
That is why one of the most important areas of implementation of the concept of economic
development of any country is the problem of food security, including the guarantee of a stable
food supply, as well as the maintenance of agricultural production to ensure food sovereignty.
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2030: the optimal future for Kazakhstan in the field of sustainable development of
the agricultural sector, the processing and food safety:
1. High productivity per unit of expended resources: at the world’s technological
leader’s level among the countries with similar climatic and soil conditions.
2. A wide range of qualitative and affordable food products produced in the Republic of
Kazakhstan in volume which stably provides a minimum level of consumption of the population
of Kazakhstan.
3. Kazakhstan among the world leaders in the number of agricultural land per capita.
4. A wide range of stress-resistant varieties and hybrids of the major crops, which
provides a stable level of production, profitability and an acceptable quality of products in the
regions of cultivation.
5. Stable exports of Kazakh agricultural products to foreign markets, including the steady
exports volume of clean agricultural products in accordance with international standards.
6. Developed logistic infrastructure for large-scale export of agricultural products,
including the infrastructure for the manufacturing, processing, storage and transportation of
ecologically pure agricultural products.
7. Developed, competitive system of generation and dissemination of innovations in the
AIC area: (1) a world-class research university in the field of agriculture, (2) dynamic national
system of agricultural researches, with the parameters of the results at the level of the best
world’s analogues, (3) a network of centers of knowledge dissemination, colleges and high
schools on specialties in the AIC area in the main agricultural regions.
8. Developed scientific competence in the areas of: (1) the creation of stress-resistant
varieties and hybrids of major agricultural crops based on the latest achievements of biology and
biotechnology, (2) management of the genetic potential of livestock in order to obtain populations
with desirable economically valuable traits, (3) ensuring of veterinary and phytosanitary security,
(4) the sustainable management of natural resources in agricultural activities.
9. Developed technical competence in the areas of: (1) agrolandscape, water resource
saving systems of agriculture, (2) technologies of feeding and keeping of farm animals, (3)
sustainable pasture management, (4) processing and storage of agricultural products, (5) food
security (6) the use of facilities and equipment for AIC on the basis of renewable energy sources.
10. The ubiquity of water-saving irrigation systems, sustainable supply of irrigation water
at the extent volume, developed (modern and efficient) infrastructure of irrigated agriculture.
11. High-speed, affordable internet connection in conjunction with affordable, highquality information systems for planning, monitoring, control and management of the AIC
manufacturing, based on the results of a wide array of experience in Kazakhstan.
12. Energy from renewable sources is a major energy resource for agriculture and rural
settlements.
13. Safely epizootic situation on the major infectious diseases of farm animals and
phytosanitary security.
14. Waste-free technological processes with low energy consumption in the production
and processing of agricultural products.
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15. Stable situation on food safety based on the use of express methods.
I. Global challenges, trends and development factors
Currently, there is a tendency of separation of factors which affect on decision-making, on
the macroscopic environmental factors (for example, more stringent environmental standards, trade
and regulatory policies lifestyle changes) and microscopic environmental factors (such as changes
in commodity prices and development of new technologies). While preparing this Scenario was
used STEEPV-analysis, which includes a selection of key variables in five horizontal areas: (1) the
company, (2) technology, (3) economy (4) environmental and (5) policy for identifying factors
which have impact on future sources of macroscopic sector.
Analysis of line “Sustainable development of the agricultural sector, the processing and
food security” has allowed identifying the main trends and external influences that characterize the
future development in Kazakhstan. The main trends are considered in the social, technological,
economic, environmental and political points of view, and are shown in the Figure 1.
(S1)
Urbanization
(S2) Population
growth
(S3) Changes in
consumer
preferences
(T1)
The priority of
the “green”
economy”
(E1) The global
nature of the
food security
problem
(Е2) Water and
energy deficit in
agriculture (Е3)
The globalization
of manufacturing
(Eco1)
Climate
changes
(P1) Geopolitical
instability
(P2) Increased
government
intervention in
agribusiness (P3)
Land, water and
energy struggling
Figure 1 - The macro-level factors, which determine the development of line SDASPFS
5
GDP growth in the countries and regions of the world 1990 - 2030 (the
forecast of Exxon Mobil)
Grain-growing countries
World exports structure
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Figure 2 - Graphical display of number of existing global trends: GDP growth for the
countries and regions of the world in 1990 - 2030; World exports structure; grain-growing
countries
II. Kazakh trends and factors
Trends and internal factors determination and analysis are the key aspects which form
future development of the direction in Kazakhstan.
The future of line “Sustainable development of the
agricultural sector, the processing and food safety”
Society
Ecology
Policy
Technology
(S)
Environment
(T)
(S1) The lack of
qualified
personnel
(T1) Depreciation of
industrial assets of
enterprises and technology
obsolescence
(T2) The lack of linkages
between manufacturing and
science, фтв the limited
participation of private capital
(T3) Organic and ecofriendly agricultural
products manufacturing
(T4) Automation of
processes in the agricultural
sector, implementation of
applied information systems
for different purposes
(T5) Food safety
(E)
(E1) The low level
of food security in
a number of
commodity items
(E2) Small-scale
product line
(E3) Needs in
modernization of
the infrastructure
of agricultural and
food
manufacturing,
and processing
(Eco)
(Eco1)
Climate
changes
Figure 3 - Internal factors which determine the development of line SDASPFS
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(P)
(P1) Entry into
WTO
(P2)
Participation in
the Customs
Union
(P3) The
investment
climate
improving in the
agricultural
sector
2.1 Social trends
The lack of qualified personnel
Over the next 10 years, frames insecurity can be a major obstacle in the development of
agriculture and the food industry. Sectors of agriculture are already lagging behind other
economic sectors in the competition due to labor force.
2.2 Technological trends (T)
Depreciation of industrial assets of enterprises and technology obsolescence - Currently,
80% of the agricultural machinery park in the country is outspent, despite the dynamic growth
of the absolute number of machines and equipment. The main aspects of the agricultural
complex development are ensuring the continuous expansion of reproduction of fixed
productive and non-productive assets, modernization of production facilities based on the
widespread implementation of the domestic production of high technology, based on the latest
achievements of science and technology.
The lack of linkages between manufacturing and science, фтв the limited participation of
private capital in the R&D funding - RK lags behind the global trends in a number of indicators
of innovation activity. According to the estimates of the enterprises susceptibility to the
innovation processes which is characterized by share of active enterprises, their innovation
activity in 2011 amounted to 4.3%. To compare share of innovation-active enterprises in USA is
about 50%, Turkey – 33%, Hungary – 47%, Estonia – 36% and Russia – 9.1%.
Organic and eco-friendly agricultural products manufacturing - Development of the
organic market in the world showing high growth rates, despite the higher and more stable
prices in comparison with the products of traditional agriculture. Kazakhstan has great potential
for organic farming. There are about about 300 thousand hectares certified as organic in
accordance to the international standards in Kazakhstan.
Automation of processes in the agricultural sector, implementation of applied information
systems for different purposes - By dint of the automation of agricultural manufacturing increases
reliability and extended service life of process equipment, facilitated working conditions and
increases safety. It becomes more prestigious, at the same time costs per unit of production
become lower, and increase quantity and quality of the products. Nowadays in the developed
countries many processes are automated, and in the agricultural sector involved only 10-15% of
the population.
Food safety - As known, sustainability indicators of food security are the level of quality
and safety of food. This problem became particularly important since there is a low quality of
food which comes to local market. Not a smaller problem is the arrival to the market of imported
products which do not meet quality standards, shelf life and unsafe for health. This quality
products due to the low purchasing power has great demand.
2.3 Economic trends (E)
The low level food security in a number of commodity items - Kazakhstan imports a
number of basic “market basket” food - 34.2% of the total consumption of vegetable oils, 17.5%
- dairy products and 15% of pasta. In USA and France the level of food self-sufficiency is 100%,
in Germany - 93%, in Italy - 78%.
Small-scale product line - Among the main reasons which interfere to implant
innovations in the agricultural sector for competitiveness increase, the main "brake" is a small scale manufacturing. Today in the structure of the gross value of agricultural production the
share of private holdings and small farms is more than 80%.
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Needs in modernization of the infrastructure of agricultural and food manufacturing, and
processing - Labour productivity in agriculture is the lowest. The problem to solve - as early as
2014, at least twice to increase productivity in the agricultural sector. There is a need in agroindustrial diversification, new equipment, technologies and approaches in agriculture.
2.4 Environmental trends (Есо)
Climate changes - Growing demand in food must be satisfied against a background of
rising global temperatures and changes in precipitation. Extreme weather phenomenons are very
likely to become stronger and more frequent, thereby increasing instability in food production
and prices.
2.5 Political trends (P)
Entry into WTO - According to experts, if in the next seven to eight years (a grace period
which Russia bargain for itself when was joining WTO) animal husbandry in the country will not
reach the level of competitiveness comparable to that of the main exporters of meat, the animal
husbandry, especially beef production, can collapse. The same situation awaits Kazakhstan also
unless there are a big investments in the construction of modern facilities, updating of qualitative
composition of livestock and poultry, the transition to resource-saving technologies, a new level
of zooveterinary service and complex processing of raw meat.
Participation in the Customs Union - The weakness of the position of Kazakhstan
manufacturers on the market of the Customs Union has threatened the food security of the
country.
The investment climate improving in the agricultural sector - Foreign experts of the
OECD identified the agricultural sector as a sector that has the greatest potential to attract
investment.
The AIC investment climate improving suggests purposeful influence of regional
authorities on the criteria to improve the reliability and efficiency of investment, ensuring
transparency at all levels, protectionism in relation to the effective investors.
III. Key directions for development “Sustainable development of the agricultural
sector, the processing and food safety” trends and factors
Definition of the key factors for the development of direction allows you to select the
most important ones in the long run. As the two main criterias used the degree of importance of
the factor-effect, as well as its degree of uncertainty. Questioning and discussion within the
expert group made it possible to identify the key factors that have a decisive influence on the
development direction in the long term. Among them:
Key factors at the macro-level:
- (S3) Changes in consumer preferences
- (Т1) The priority of the “green” economy”
- (E1) The global nature of the food security problem
- (E2) Water and energy deficit in agriculture
- (Eco4) Climate changes
- (P1) Geopolitical instability
Key factors at the micro-level:
- (T3) Organic and eco-friendly agricultural products manufacturing
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- (Т5) Food safety
- (E1) The low level of food security in a number of commodity items
- (Eco1) Climate changes
ьт
с
о
им
The importance/influence
5
Знач
/
е 0
ни
ия
л
В
Eco4 Eco1 E2
E1
E1
S3
P2
P1
T2
S2
4
P3
S3
Eco2
P3S4
3
P1
E3
2
1
S7
T1
S1
Factors with high
uncertainty
P-political
5 Eco-ecological
E-economical
S-social
T-technical
Eco1
P2
3
2
4 S1
S2
T1
1
“Critical” by impact
factors
E2
Uncertainty
0
Неопределенность
Figure 4 - The ranking factors (macro-level) by importance and range of uncertainty
5
The importance/influence
T7
ьт
со
им
E4
T5
E3
4
P5
S8
S6
/
е
ни
ия
л
В
T3
T4
P4
Знач
“Critical” by impact
factors
Factors with high
uncertainty
Eco5
P1
E5
3
Eco3
T5
Есо6
T6
T3
S5
Eco1 E1
E6
P2
S1
P6
P3
T8
T2
P4 2
T1
TE42 E3
P- political
Eco- ecological
E- economical
S- social
T- technical
1
Uncertainty
0 Неопределенность
Figure 4 - The ranking factors (micro-level) by importance and range of uncertainty
In addition, factors have been isolated, which characterized by a lower level of influence
at a fairly high level of uncertainty.
At the macro-level to that factors were attributed:
- (S1) Urbanization
- (P3) Land, water and energy struggling
At the micro-level:
- (Р1) Entry into WTO
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IV. Cross-impact analysis
Was made cross-impact analysis of factors, were defined central factors, which may
change their effects depending on the nature of the interaction with other factors in the future.
All the factors are interrelated and, therefore, affect each other. The effect of changing
one sphere factor doesn't remains only inside of it: change also affects all other areas of the
system.
Macro-level
Micro-level
Figure 6 - Diagram of factors cross-impact on the development of line SDASPFS (decoding codes
of factors is shown in Fig. 1 and 2)
Based on the analysis centeredness, the greatest effect on the network structure have:
climate changes, the global nature of the food security problem, changes in consumer
preferences, priority of the “green” economy, food safety and manufacturing of the organic and
environmentally friendly products.
By the experts results of the ranking factors on the degree of uncertainty and the
importance were determinated factors which have a high and average degree of influence on the
development direction and a high level of uncertainty, as well as pre-defined factors (low
uncertainty) with a high level of influence.
- weak influence
- below average
- average influence
- above average
- strong influence
Figure 7 - Network sociogram for the future of line
By the results of the ranking of external factors identified as a key factors were determined
such factors as “Changes in consumer preferences” with estimation of uncertainty at 2.88,
“Global nature of the food security problem” - 2.75 and “Geopolitical instability in certain
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regions” - 2.63. At the same time, only factor “Global nature of the the food security problem”
was highly significant, estimated at 4.25 points. Those factors, which have the highest
uncertainty, will have the greatest impact on the considerated direction in Kazakhstan in future.
V. Future world and Kazakhstan markets analysis
In the short term it is expected to increase agricultural manufacturing in the world, in
response to high prices, suggesting that the weather conditions will be normal. Commodity prices
will fall in comparison with their high level at the beginning of 2011, but in real terms they are
expected to increase up to 20% for cereals (maize) and up to 30% for meat (poultry) during the
period of 2011-20 compared to the previous decade. The commodity prices rising distributes by
the food chain on animal products. To the extent that how the high prices of agricultural
commodities are distributes up the food chain, shows up evidences of accelerating of inflation for
food retail prices, which increases the overall consumer price inflation. This situation raises
concerns about the economic and food insecurity in some developing countries because of lower
purchasing power of the poorest population.
It is expected that the growth of global agricultural manufacturing will make up in
average 1.7% a year, compared with 2.6% in the previous decade. Expects slowdown in the
manufacturing of most crops, especially oilseeds and coarse grains, as these branches show rise
of manufacturing costs and a reduction in yield growth. Livestock production will remain around
the previous growth trend. Despite the slowdown in growth, per capita production should
increase on 0.7% annually.
The decline in overall world growth of productivity of main crops will continue to put
pressure on world prices. It is expected to increase production in the developing world suppliers
of those whose existing technologies offer good opportunities for improving crop yields,
although fluctuations in the ratio of yields/sentence can be increased. The share of developing
countries in world production will continue to grow over the forecast period.
In the fish sector growth in global manufacturing is estimated at 1.3% per year until 2020.
This pace is slower than in the previous decade, due to the lower growth rate of fish-farming
(2.8% compared with 5.6% in the period of 2001-2010) and the reduction or stagnation of
manufacturing in the fishery sector. Up to 2015 fish-farming has to be ahead of the fishery and
became increasingly important source of consumption of fish, also up to 2020 fish-farming has to
give about 45% of the total fish production (including non-food uses). Compared with the period
of 2008-2010, up to 2020 it is planned to increase average prices level in the nominal index on
20% for caught fish and an increase on 50% for fish grown in artificial conditions.
Per capita consumption will increase most rapidly in the Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin
America, where incomes are rising and population growth slows down. The maximum increase
in demand is expected for vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products.
Uses of agricultural products as a raw material for biofuels will continue to grow rapidly,
mostly due to biofuel mandates and support policies. It is expected that up to 2020 13% of the
world production of coarse grains, 15% of vegetable oil and 30% of sugar cane will be used for
biofuel manufacturing. Oil prices rise has to lead to a further increase of biofuel raw materials
use, and at the sufficiently high oil prices, biofuel manufacturing in many countries will be costeffective even if there are no support measures.
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It is expected that trade growth will make up 2% per year, which is below the rate of the
previous decade. This forecasts only a modest increase of manufacturing of the traditional
exporters and a higher domestic manufacturing in importing countries. The fastest growth will
occur primarily for growing exporters in the countries of the Eastern Europe, Central Asia and
Latin America. In the African countries south of the Sahara will be a growing shortage of food
as the population growth will outstrip the pace of growth in domestic agricultural production.
Stochastic analysis points on the uncertainty of the price forecast, which is heavily
dependent on the input parameters, but in general shows that prices are likely to rise than to fall.
This analysis also confirms that the fluctuations in production due to the yield in major
exporting countries were the primary source of price volatility on the international level. Last
year’s drought and fires in Russia and Ukraine, as well as excessive moisture in the United
States have shown how quickly things can change the market equilibrium. It is assumed that the
fluctuations of productivity associated with the weather conditions, will become even more
significant factor in the future price volatility. [3]
By the parameter of the support level of agricultural sector of the economy, Kazakhstan
has average level in the relative parameters. The total support of agriculture in this case includes
both payments from the budget for agricultural units, and indirect support measures (e.g. tariff
protection).
Currently, in the WTO dominate trends of the abandonment of direct measures of state
support of agriculture. The increasing importance in the WTO and in the global agro-food
markets goes to Cairns Group countries (Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and
others) which have a minimum level of direct subsidies in agriculture and develope the
branch by increasing manufacturing competitiveness and efficiency. The experience of the
Cairns Group countries which do not use direct support of agricultural manufacture shows
higher growth in the total factors productivity for the period after abolition of subsidies.
Applied to Kazakhstan, it suggests that each country develops its agricultural support
system, as long as this support has stimulated manufacturers to increase the productivity of
the land and animals, and stimulate exports.
The analysis of the current trends in the development of the leading countries in
agriculture showed that the further development of the agro-industrial complex of Kazakhstan
should focus on improving the competitiveness of agricultural products by improving the
efficiency of government support and creating equal favorable conditions for the development of
agribusiness.
In addition, the developed countries formed a separate area of agriculture – organic
products manufacturing. Development of the organic market in the world shows high growth
rates, despite the higher and more stable prices in comparison with the products of traditional
agriculture. Domestic products of organic manufacturing may become competitive with foreign
goods as a result of implementation of the certification system for organic production which
recognized in the developed world’s countries.
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Nowadays new trends in the world agricultural economy and demographics form, real
progress has integration processes in the region, global climate changes occur. Kazakhstan joined
the Customs Union (CU), in the next period it is planned to join the World Trade Organization
(WTO). However, the low level of labor productivity in the branch, inadequate of used
technologies, small-scale product line do not allow to conduct intensive agricultural
manufacturing, to ensure the fullest use of the material, labor and other resources, to comply with
environmental requirements. These factors reduce the competitiveness of domestic agricultural
sector, which with participation in WTO and CU may lead to the dominance of imports of foreign
products, displace local producers from markets.
As a result of analysis by program “Agribusiness 2020” were identified following
promising sales markets for manufactured in Kazakhstan products. [13]
On the wheat market in Central Asia, Afghanistan, the EU, Kazakhstan may take more
than 10 million tons in grain equivalent (wheat, flour, products of the deep processing of wheat)
in 2020, with considering of a rapid growth of the population of Central Asian countries and
Afghanistan. One of the key tasks is to maintain leading position on the export of flour, which
can be shortened due to the orientation of the importing countries to develop their own capacities
for the flour manufacturing.
Exports of the products of of the deep wheat processing (starch, gluten, etc.) will make up
to 0.3-0.5 million tons in the raw equivalent, subject to the success of currently running projects
in the deep processing of wheat.
Russia imports about 1 million tons of apples, of which Kazakhstan can provide up to 400
thousand tons of supplies in 2020. At the same time the domestic market of Kazakhstan in 2020
will be about 600 thousand tons of apples, including 400 thousand tons of products apples
processing in a raw equivalent.
In 2020, the domestic market of vegetable production, including tomatoes will be around
3 million tons, of which local producers can provide up to 100% of domestic demand. Export of
vegetable production in 2020 may reach up to 300 thousand tons, mostly to the CU countries.
Demand on the domestic corn market in 2020 will be about 1 million tons in grain
(mainly for livestock) will be provided by local products. Iran currently imports each year more
than 3 million tons of maize grain and this country is a promising potential market for this
product.
The domestic market of rapeseed in 2020 will be about 500 thousand tons, which will be
provided by local products. There is also a potential to increase the volume of exports to the EU
almost doubled up to 70 thousand tons.
The potential market for Russian imported beef is not less than 600 thousand tons
annually, on which Kazakhstan could supply about 60 thousand tons of chilled beef in 2016. Also
the domestic market of beef will be about 500 thousand tons by 2020, mutton – 200 thousand
tons, horsemeat – more than 120 thousand tons, which will be provided by domestic production.
The market of imported chilled red fish (salmon) of Russia is about 75 thousand tons per
year, of which Kazakhstan can take up to 15 thousand tons in 2020, also there is a possibility for
export to Russia, the EU and other countries up to 5 thousand tons of sturgeon and caviar.
In the changed circumstances of external and internal environment, in connection with the
Kazakhstan entry to the Customs Union and WTO, and the need to use new tools of state
regulation and modernization of the industry, has been developed a new branch program of the
development of agriculture by scientists, and the current situation does not give grounds for
assumptions about the probability of a crisis so far [11].
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VI. Analysis of the world strategies of the line development
Virtually worldwide activities related with the provision of food and consumer products
have gone beyond the bounds of agriculture and now form a system of interdependent branches,
which interact with agriculture, prossesing, warehouse and refrigeration, wholesale and retail
trade enterprises, agricultural engineering, agricultural chemistry, agricultural science, agrobanks
and so on. In economically developed countries, countries with economies in transition, in the
post-socialist countries such associations have evolved to the level of agro-industrial complex
(AIC). In many developing countries have also started similar processes, but agro-industrial
integration here is on the early stages of development. When it comes to the world economy the
system which combines agriculture and related branches call agribusiness or agricultural
industrial area.
The basis of the agricultural industrial spheres of the world economy is based on
agriculture which is the one of the most ancient forms of human economic activity. Agriculture
even now employs half of the economically active population of the world. However, if the
developing countries agriculture employs more than 2/3 of the employed population, and in some
of them 3/4, in economically developed countries less than 1/10, and in the US only 2.4% of the
economically active population. But in whole agricultural industrial field of employment are
much more workers. For example, in the US and Europe per person employed in agriculture
accounts more than 4-5 people employed in other sectors of AIC. Consequently, even in
economically developed countries agricultural sector employs 1/5, and even more of the
economically active population.
In agriculture 99% of the products produce husbandry and livestock farming. Other
industries such as aquaculture (breeding of fish, shellfish, etc.) and the use of insects (silkworm
breeding and beekeeping) play an insignificant role.
The ratio of crop and livestock manufacturing depends on several factors: the level of
industrialization of the country (in North America and Europe is highly mechanized livestock),
natural environment (grazing in the arid steppe and semi-desert areas), ethnic and religious
characteristics of a country (for example, Islam forbids eating pork, Hinduism to kill cows).
In general, in the economically developed countries of Europe and the Anglo-America
dominates livestock on the basis of usage the best of science, and in developing countries,
especially in the equatorial, subequatorial zones and zone monsoon climate dominates crop
farming.
6.1 Crop farming
Grain manufacturing is currently concentrated mainly in developed countries. [1]
Currently, the world’s grain market is controlled by five major exporters: the US, Canada,
Argentina, Australia, EU. The total supplies of grain exports from the basic “five” exporters
account about 84% of total world trade. The leading position on the grain market is given to the
United States, which have 28% of trade volume, followed by Canada 17%, Australia and the
European Union 15%, and Argentina 11%.
Technical crops are grown to produce raw materials for various industries. Cotton is the
most important. The main areas of its cultivation are subtropical, tropical and sub-equatorial
zones: almost 1/5 of gather give China and the US, 1/10 India and Pakistan, the other major
producers are Uzbekistan, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Brazil, Australia. According to the International
Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), in a hundred countries which cultivate cotton, only five
produce it in large volumes which in total make about 71% of world production. Leading
producers are China (25% of the world’s total production), the US (21%), India (12%), Pakistan
(8%), Uzbekistan (5%).
14
In the temperate zone the main crop is the fiber flax, which is grown mostly in China,
France, as well as in Russia, Spain, Belarus and Ukraine. Main producers of oilseeds are United
States (soybeans), Russia (sunflower), China (rape), Brazil (peanuts). Main manufacturers of
sugar plants are Brazil, India, Cuba (sugar cane); Ukraine, France, Russia, Poland (sugar beet).
Countries which are the world’s leading exporters are the leaders in the implementation of
resource-saving technologies (“green revolution”). The priority of saving horticulture
technologies in the development of agricultural production of the world is clear: the United
States, Canada, Argentina, Australia, the EU and other developed countries have begun to
implement these technologies since the ‘80s and continue to increase the acreage with a tendency
to greater use of direct seeding based on intensive use fertilizers and plant protection products. To
the need to implement new technologies in these countries have pushed negative effects of
intensive tillage on the one hand, the water and wind erosion, deterioration of soil fertility and,
consequently, yields decrease, and on the other hand, a high level of fuel prices and labor costs,
which led to the decrease of profitability of agricultural manufacturing.
Currently on the world grain market the are following changes: the intensification of grain
production, while reducing the acreage on 5.5% gross grain yield increased on 2.4%, cereal
yields increased in average on 8.5%; the emergence of new exporting countries on the market,
such as Russia, Hungary, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey.
Main exporters
The US is the largest exporter of grain. One-third of the United States acreage sown
specifically for sales abroad. Among the cereals in the US leading place take corn and wheat,
much of which is exported.
The United States has long maintained the lead as a producer of corn. Corn is grown
almost everywhere there: sown area is 28.6-35.0 million ha. Yields range from 90 to
100 centners/ha. In the United States grows 267.5-331.2 million tons of corn, which is a half of
the entire world’s corn gather. 44.5-61/9 million tons exported, and most is used for internal
consumption, which is 230.7-261.7 million tons. Imports less than 0.3-0.5 million tons. Sown
area, given for wheat is 18.9-22.5 million ha., the average yield is 30 centners/ha. Thus, the
production is about 49.2-68.0 million tons. And on average, one half is exported (24.734.4 million tons), the other is for domestic consumption, which is 28,6-34,3 million tons.
Imports 3.0-3.3 million tons. Carryover range from 8.3 to 17.8 million tons.
Canada is an exporter of grain (this applies to all of the main crops, including wheat, rye,
oats, barley, corn, buckwheat) and one of the major players in the global grain market. In this
context, import of grain has a small amount. The average sown area for wheat is 8.6 11.0 million ha. The yield varies from year to year, ranging from 18 to 29 centners/ha. The
average gross yield of wheat varies from 16.2 to 28.6 million tons, 9.4 - 19.4 million tons gos for
export. Imports from 0.2 to 0.4 million tons. For the domestic consumption goes 6.3-9.0 million
tons. Carryover of wheat in the country are 4.8-9.7 million tons.
Barley is also an important export crop. The sown area for barley is 3.2-4.6 million ha.
Yields ranged from 22 to 34 centners/ha., which enables the production of 7.5-13.2 million tons
of barley. Country exports 0.4-3.0 million tons. Import is negligible. The domestic consumption
of the country’s barley is 7.9-11.6 million tons. Carryovers make up 1.5-3.4 million tons. [2]
15
Corn production in the country makes up 8.8-11.6 million tons in average, which does not
always cover the domestic consumption of this crop in the country, which varies from 10.3 to
13.8 million tons, so the missing quantity of corn is imported.
Australia is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grain. The highest value
among cereals has wheat. The sown area for wheat in the average ranges makes up 11.1 13.4 million ha. It accounts over a half of all farmland. Yields of wheat varies from year to year
(depends on climate conditions) and ranging from 9 to 21 centners/ha. Mostly it is winter wheat,
which is very sensitive to drought. The average wheat yield is from 10.1 (in dry years) to
26.1 million tons. Exported from 7.5 то 18.0 million tons. Imported 0.1-0.3 million tons.
Consumption inside the country 5,3-6,5 million tons. Carryovers make up 3.2-9.6 million tons.
The sown area for barley is 3.5-4.6 million ha. Yields about 10-23 centners/ha. Production
varies within 3,9-10,4 million tons. Exported 1,9-6,4 million tons, depending on the world
market. Domestic consumption 2.2-3.8 million tons. Carryovers 0.6-2.7 million tons.
Among the other crops are corn (used mainly for animal feed), sorghum (as a grain and
for animal feed), triticale (hybrid of wheat and rye), and among oilseeds are groundnut,
sunflower, safflower, rapeseed, canola, soybeans.
Argentina has traditionally been one of the leading manufacturers and exporters of grain
and flour, however country dependent from fluctuations on the biggest market for exports in the
neighboring Brazil. The sown area for wheat is from 4.2 to 6.8 million ha. Productivity is 2129 centners/ha. Production varies from 9.5-16.3 million tons. Exported 4.3-11.8 million tons.
Domestic consumption 4.9-5.5 million tons. Carryovers make up 0.3-1.5 million tons.
The significant portion of agricultural production takes corn. The area under cultivation
for corn constitutes 2.4-3.3 million ha. Yields 55-80 centners/ha. Manufacturing 14.722.5 million tons the part of it exported in the volume 9.0-15.3 million tons. Consumption inside
the country 4.1-7.5 million tons. Carryovers 0.2-1.7 million tons. Import is negligible. [2]
Brazil is a traditional manufacturer and exporter of a number of agricultural products:
coffee, sugar cane, soybeans, corn, cocoa, bananas, cotton. Brazil’s main consumer cultures are
wheat, corn and rice. The average gross yield of wheat is 2.2-5.8 million tons, but domestic
consumption is 9.9-10.8 million tons, so imports make up 5.3-7.8 million tons. Brazil imports
0.2-1.4 million tons of corn. Consumption of corn inside the country makes in average 34.547.5 million tons, while the average gross yield 35.0-58.6 million tons. Coffee is one of the main
exports of Brazil. Brazil is on the 1st place in the world by its manufacturing. Brazil has a 1st
place in the world by the production of sugar cane, from which makes ethanol which is used
primarily as fuel for cars. [2]
The European Union. The area sown for wheat is 24.3-26.8 million ha. Yields 4557 kg/ha. Thus, the EEC produces 110.6-150.5 million tons of wheat. Of these, domestic
consumption consisit from 113.2 to 127.5 million tons, exported 9.8-20.1 million tons, carryovers
10.4-27.5 million tons. Imports of wheat range from 3.5 to 10.7 million tons. The sown area for
barley is from 13.7 to 14.7 million ha. Yields of 40-47 centners/ha. allow to produce 55.8- 65.6
million tons of barley. Most is used for internal consumption, which is 54.1-58.0 million tons.
Exports range from 2.6 to 7.2 million tons. Approximately 0.1-1.4 million tons of barley
imported. Carryover make up 5.7-11.1 million tons. Gross harvest of corn in the EEC is 47.7-66.5
million tons. Domestic consumption 60.5-63.5 million tons. Depending on the yields import
varies from 2.5 to 14.0 million tons, export from 0.5 to 0.7 million tons. Carryovers 5.0-9.5
million tons.
16
Russia has 10% of the all arable land in the world. Most of the area is used for wheat: 7.410.6 million ha. for winter and 13.8-15.5 million ha. for spring. The total wheat yield in average
ranges from 34.1 to 50.6 million tons with the yield of 21-30 centners/ha. and 13-16 centners/ha.,
respectively winter and spring wheat. Domestic consumtion is 36.4-44.2 million tons. Exported
8.0-15.0 million tons. Imported 0.3-1.3 million tons. Carryovers make up 2.3-7.1 million tons.
Large areas under winter and spring barley 0.5-0.7 million ha. and 8.6-9.7 million ha.
respectively. When winter barley yields is 26-39 centners/ha., and spring 16-19 centners/ha.
overall gross yield of barley is 14.1-19.5 million tons. For the domestic consumption go 15.516.5 million tons. Exported 1.3-1.7 million tons of barley. Imported of 0.2 million tons,
carryovers are 1.0-2.1 million tons.
As for technical crops there are grown flax, sugar beet, oilseeds (sunflower, soy, mustard,
rapeseed). Sown area under technical crops makes up to 5.4 - 8.8 million ha. Sown area under
potatoes and melons is not more than 5% of the sown area of Russia.
Ukraine. Agricultural production in Ukraine froms 16-22% of the national income. In the
structure of agriculture identified two major areas - crops and livestock. The structure of grain
production accounts more than a half of winter wheat. The sown area for winter and spring wheat
is 5.5-6.6 million ha.. Yields of 23-28 centners/ha. allows to get 13.9-18.7 million tons. On the
domestic consumption spends 11.7-12.9 million tons of wheat. Exported from 1.2 to 6.5 million
tons. Imported 0.1-0.3 million tons. Carryovers – 1.4-4.1 million tons.
Second place in the gross harvest takes barley. Sown area is 4.1-5.2 million ha. Yields
ranged from 15 to 22 centners/ha. Gross yield is 6.0-11.4 million tons. For the domestic
consumption uses 4.9-6.5 million tons of barley. Exported 1.0-5.1 million tons. Imported up to
0.1 million tons. Carryovers make up 0.7-1.2 million tons.
The third place on total gathering takes corn, the fourth – rye. In terms of gross harvest
oats, millet, buckwheat, rice and legumes are significantly behind them. In the forests there are a
crucial area in Ukraine for sugar beet production, which gives the country more than 40% sugar.
6.2 Animal husbandry.
The worldwide animal husbandry has a different level of development. In economically
developed countries such as Europe, North America, Japan, and in the transition economies of
Eastern Europe it is a high-intensity, highly mechanized industry, which based on the same
intensive and mechanized feed manufacturing. Main branches here are dairy farming, rearing
stabling of cattle for meat, pigs farming, highly mechanized poultry. Livestock in these countries
is a high-tradable industry, which is closely related to the processing and marketing units of
agriculture. However, in countries with large pastures, animal husbandry combines the features of
extensive production (but technically well equipped), associated with other parts of the AIC
sectors. Here they grow cattle for meat, breed sheeps, using pastures. This is characteristically, for
example, for South-West United States, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, less for Ukraine,
Russia and Kazakhstan and others.
In developing countries prefer extensive livestock farming, which use the possibilities of
pastures and has a small connection with the other branches of agriculture. The best developed
here meat and dairy farming (but cattle less productive if compare with Europe or the United
States), grazing sheeps farming, sometimes horse-breeding, camel-breeding, etc. Among the
developing countries, the biggest quantity of cattle bred for meat is in the Latin America countries
(Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Uruguay) and in the East Africa (Ethiopia), sheep and goats is in the
South-West and South Asia (Iran, Turkey, India, Pakistan).
17
The USA. In the agriculture of the US dominates livestock farming more than crop
farming and gives more than 55% of the commodity products. In the United States there is
mostly meat animal farming.
The United States is characterized by the presence of very large farms so-called “meat
factories” where there are at the same time tens of thousands of steers get feed. Pig production is
concentrated mainly along the corn belt. Pork, especially oily, use in the US in less demand than
beef, so there is developed bacon fattening. Strong development of poultry, namely chickens for
fattening industry (broilers). Broiler production is the most industrialized sector of American
agriculture, where is especially high concentration of production and capital.
Livestock and poultry on 2010 amounted: cattle - 95 million heads or 4th place in the
world, pigs - 60 million heads or 3d place in the world, sheeps and goats about 5 million heads or
58th place, poultry - 2 billion heads or 2nd place in the world.
China. In China the share of livestock farming accounts 30 percent of the total
agricultural production of the country and the recent years country focuses on restructuring and
improves the quantity of production. Intensive development of the dairy industry is one of the
important content of China’s livestock. There are take vigorous measures for improving breeds of
dairy cows, develops of the new kinds of dairy products in accordance to market demand. At the
same time rapidly develop leading animal products processing enterprises and increase the spread
of advanced technologies for pigs breeding, cattle and small cattle, and poultry.
For the end of 2009 the number of cattle was 134 million heads or 3d place in the world,
pigs 470 million heads or 1st place in the world, 4.7 billion birds heads or 1st place, sheeps and
goats 227 million heads or 1st place in the world.
India. Animal farming in India being the second largest industry after crop agriculture. It
is a cattle as buffaloes, cows, oxen, which are mainly used as draft power. Despite the fact that
India has 1st place in the world by cattle heads, livestock is a small supplier of meat products.
The most eaten types of meat are goat, lamb, chicken, however, the total consumption of
animal meat and meat products occupy a small part (for 2009 per capita per year was about 1.5
kg of beef and 1.8 kg of pork ). The low productivity of livestock mainly explains by the lack of
feeds.
Livestock and poultry for 2010 amounted: cattle 300 million heads or 1st place in the
world, pigs 13.8 million heads or 6th place in the world, sheeps and goats about 105 million
heads or 3rd place, the poultry 613 million heads or 5th place in the world.
Brazil. In Brazil there is mainly meat livestock farming which provides about 40% of the
value of agricultural products. Pastoralism breeding predominates, as well as beef cattle,
combined with a vegetable production. Over the past 12 months, the export of Brazilian
agriculture and livestock has reached 68 billion dollars. At the same time, the weather, price
fluctuations for agricultural and livestock products in the world market and many other
uncertainties will affect the final outcome.
At the end of 2009 the number of cattle heads was 185 million or 2nd place in the world,
pigs 37 million heads or 4th place in the world, 1.2 billion heads of poultries or 4th place, sheeps
and goats 29 million heads or 23d place in the world.
18
VII. Analysis of the development strategies for the line in Kazakhstan
During the period of independence of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the AIC of the
country were achieved significant results: there is a constant increase in production on the basis of
market relations, increasing labour efficiency and productivity, making renewal of fixed assets
and recovery of branch’s infrastructure, achieved self-sufficiency in basic food products, there
was a significant increase in exports of cereals, oilseeds , fishery products (Agribusiness 2020).
In 2011 the share of agriculture manufacturing in gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP) was 5.1%, the labour productivity of employed in agriculture between 2005 and 2011 has
changed with the average annual growth rate of 9.3% per year, in the countryside area population
was about 7.48 million people or more than 45% of the total population of Kazakhstan.
The volume of gross agricultural products of Kazakhstan shows a steady upward trend
from the level of 1089.4 billion tenge in 2007 to 2286 billion tenge in 2011 for agricultural
products and 490.8 billion tenge in 2007 to 828 billion tenge in 2011 for processed products.
Over the past 5 years, the rate of growth of gross agricultural output has made 20%, of food
production 12.2%.
For 5 years the average gross production of key processed products amounted more than
650 billion tenge.
However, the import dependence of Kazakhstan was formed by many kinds of processed
products of AIC. So, a high level of import dependence for fruit and vegetables, processed
products of meat and milk.
In 2011, agriculture employed 2 196.1 thousand people (26% of total employed), including
wage 604.8 thousand people (27.5% of the employed in the sector), the self-employed
1591.3 thousand people (72.5% of the employed in the sector).
The area under cultivation in the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2011 amounted to 21,083
thousand hectares. Under wheat were about 65.7% (13 848.9 thousand ha.) of farmland. Under
crops in 2011 it were given 76.9% (16 219.4 thousand ha.) of farmland. The number of livestock
at the beginning of 2012 amounted 5.7 million heads of cattle (hereinafter - C), 18.1 million heads
of small cattle (hereinafter - SC), 1.6 million heads of horses, 1.2 million heads of pigs , 0.17
million heads of camels and 32.9 million heads of poultries.
The basis of state regulation of AIC of Kazakhstan is a set of strategic and program
documents approved by the President and the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
1. The strategy of the development of the Republic of Kazakhstan up to 2050;
2. The strategy of the development of the Republic of Kazakhstan up to 2030;
3. The strategic development plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan up to 2020;
4. The programme on agro-industrial complex development in the Republic of
Kazakhstan for 2013-2020 “Agribusiness 2020”;
5. The state program of forced industrial-innovative development for 2010 - 2014 years;
6. The concept of transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the “green economy”.
At the moment, the policy of state regulation of agro-industrial complex is realized in the
following forms:
1) providing of various forms of state support among the subjects of AIC in the form of
subsidies, public procurement, etc.;
19
2) the use of financial tools to support the conditions for renewal of basic production
assets – the park of agricultural machinery, equipment and livestock;
3) ensuring the availability of financial and credit instruments for AIC entities;
4) creating the necessary conditions for investments attracting into projects of
development of AIC;
5) support of products export;
6) providing of public services in the field of veterinary and phytosanitary security;
7)
preservation and development of the infrastructure which is necessary for the
development of AIC of Kazakhstan, - transport, water, storage, processing, etc.;
8)
the development of industrial science and dissemination of agro technological
knowledge;
9) control of expenditure of budgetary funds.
In Kazakhstan there are mainly dominated cash and financial instruments of support.
Over the past 5 years subsidizing of AIC has increased more than 3 times.
VIII. R&D analysis (lines, financing structure) in the world, determination of the
leading countries
8.1. Typology of agricultural research systems in the world
The global system of agricultural science includes the following basic organizational forms
of researches:
1) research operators;
2) universities;
3) funding (or software) agencies;
4) international agricultural research centers;
5) funds.
8.1.1. Research operators
The research operators are the organizations which directly conducting research,
implementing national or international research programs, and have their own financial means. As
a rule, they are created with the purpose of managing the national agricultural research systems,
combining research, experimental development and support organizations.
It should be emphasized that the majority of the leading operators of the agricultural
research system implementing internal programs which aimed on enhancing of international
cooperation and the formation of a unified global system of agricultural science.
The most successful and famous research operators are:
1) Agricultural Research Service of the USDA (ARS USDA);
2) National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA);
3) Research centers of the Ministry of Agriculture and agricultural products in Canada
(Agriculture & Agri-food Canada);
4) The National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA, Argentina);
5) The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA);
6) Volcani Research Center (Israel);
7) Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).
Models of the functioning of research operators differ in details that, as a rule, due to the
peculiarities of the national agro-industrial complex, the level of business and innovation activity,
other factors. Some operators of research (INRA, FAL, etc.) specialize mainly in basic research
and carry out in relation to other subjects of industry innovation system coordinating role. Others
focused on applied research and technology transfer, fully controlling all stages - from the
generation of new knowledge to disseminate the results of research and development.
20
8.1.2. Universities
The complexity of the problems on the one hand and the level of development of the
discipline on the other hand, lead to the fact that for any of Agricultural Research Institutions it is
important to: (1) be at the forefront of disciplines that develop the universities, (2) to form a wide
network of universities, which serve him as a reserve of candidates and as a place of the
development of advanced concepts for the conversion of research results into knowledge.
Universities by a definition are interdisciplinary institutions and stand in the center of
each discipline. They do not specialize on agricultural researches except Dutch WUR, Swedish
University of Agricultural Sciences (www.slu.se) in Sweden and several small agricultural
universities, which do not appear on the global horizon of advanced agricultural research.
8.1.3. Research funding or software agencies
Funding or software agencies which do not have their own research institutions, funding
through tenders individual research projects or entire programs which are open to international
participants or created together with partners (such as the Agricultural Research Corporations in
Australia).
DFG agency (www.dfg.de) in Germany, has developed an original system for receipt of
proposals as they become available, what makes its reaction for respond the fastest.
Some of these agencies are seeking for more influence at the international level,
coordinating the overall tenders with similar organizations.
8.1.4. International agricultural research centers
International agricultural research centers
(IARC) are mainly CGIAR centres
(www.cgiar.org) and few operators which because of various reasons were not able to join the
system (for example, AVRDC www.avrdc.org). The general management of these international
centers were reformed and formed a non-limiting fund which receives funds from the contributions
of various organizations, both private and public, from all over the world. The fund in the amount
of approximately $ 1.1 billion is used also for financing the so-called “mega programs”.
The Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR www.egfar.org) is a platform created
on the basis of regional industry forums. Repeatedly stressed the importance of taking into account
the constant changes in the context of agriculture in the world, to support these points of
concentration and exchange of views.
According to experts, to strengthen of the global food crisis adds to the gradual weakening
of the most national agricultural research systems in developing countries. This means that the
ability to adopt innovations and new manufacturing systems is doubly weakened due to strong lack
of skilled researchers and extension systems inability to perform its functions.
21
8.1.5. Funds
At the one time, the Rockefeller Foundation (www.rockfellerfondation.org) played a great
role in the “green” revolution. Today on the scene other participants, including the Bill and
Melinda Gates Foundation (www.gatesfoundation.org) and Tata Fund (www.srtt.org).
Against the backdrop of the significant funding that can provide these funds, there is the
question of where they intend to take in the management of research and of the policies they are
going to make. The main options are considered (1) the continuation of the “green revolution” by
promoting technological innovation in the sector of the three major crops, (2) conversely, crop
diversification in favor of independent farms and balanced diet, (3) development of two types of
agriculture by strengthening communication between livestock and crop manufacturing.
8.2. Leading agricultural research systems and priorities for agricultural researches
in the world
Figure 8 shows the main parameters which characterize the current state of the world
science in 2012.
The size of the circle for each country describes the size of the national expenditure on
research and development. Accordingly, shown in the picture parameters largely determine the
leading position of national agricultural research systems of countries in the global system of
agricultural science.
Fig. 8. World’s researches in 2012 [7]
On the basis of the international bibliometric database ISI Web of Knowledge ® Thomson
Reuters (the former base of the Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of the United
States - recognized standard in the citation assessing) below are the main characteristics of
academic research institutions in the area of “Agricultural Science” for 2003 - 2013:
No.
1.
2.
3.
Institutions
ARS USDA (USA)
CSIC (Spain)
INRA (France)
Quanti
The
ty of
number of
articles
citations
7 886
80 343
3,388
39,677
3,291
35,963
22
Citations per
article
The citation
index
changing,%
10,19
11,71
10,93
16,0
76,5
47,0
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Wageningen
UR
(Netherlands)
UC Davis (USA)
Agriculture & Agri-Food
Canada
Cornell University (USA)
Chinese
Academy
of
Sciences
CSIRO (Australia)
University
of
Illinois
(USA)
2,749
28,593
10,40
2,034
2,324
23,752
22,029
11,68
9,48
1,687
2,547
20,938
16,827
12,41
6,61
1,652
1,241
15,917
14,978
9,63
12,07
70,0
40,0
111,0
27,0
290,0
69,0
-8,0
Of the 10 leading organizations 6 positions occupied by national agricultural research
systems, 4 by research universities (1 from the European Union, 3 from the United States).
In the “Science of plants and animals” section Agricultural Research Service of the
USDA (ARS USDA) is again the leader in the number of publications and citations, far ahead
of the University of California, Davis (UC Davis, second place) and the National Institute of
Agricultural Research of France (INRA , third place).
Also the top ten of agricultural research systems in this section includes Max Planck
Institute (Germany), Cornell University (USA), Wageningen UR (Netherlands), University of
Wisconsin (USA), CSIRO (Australia), University of Florida (USA), CSIC (Spain).
Among the countries which traditionally were not ones of the technological leaders, in
the last decade has been a significant strengthening of the position in the global agricultural
science. According to experts, these processes are a major factor in the radical change of the
modern organization of world agricultural researches.
Over the past ten years, China has increased its academic contribution (the total number
of citations) more than tenfold, Brazil has increased its contribution fourfold, and India
threefold. For example, in 2009 the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences was only on
11th place in the world in a “Agricultural Sciences” section and in 2013 it on the 8th place.
Brazil and India over the years maintained high enough places in the second ten.
Experts estimate that in the next decade global leadership will be saved by the
Agricultural Research Service of the USDA. In the US itself the priority is given more to the
development of scientific potential on the basis of research universities. In dedication to this
purpose a separate program NIFA runs since 2008, which budget for 2012 amounted to
$ 1.4 billion, and has grown in comparison with 2009 almost 3 times. To compare, the budget
for the Agricultural Research Service is relatively constant over the years at $ 1.1 billion.
The global trend in agricultural research is an increasing role of research universities in
research programs. For example, by the Canadian universities performed 65% of the breeding
work in animal husbandry, 66% of researches in the field of veterinary medicine, more than
70% of the studies in the field of physiology of farm animals. Also universities provide the
main part of the researches in areas such as agricultural and construction machinery,
agricultural economics and sociology, human nutrition.
23
The main Chinese progress has been associated with the successful implementation of the
program of the researchers returning: compatriots from abroad, mainly from the United States.
Typically, these scientists worked in the leading research centers and universities and are highly
qualified in the field of basic science and advanced methods of basic research.
The downside of such a policy in China was a significant gap between the level of
fundamental and applied science, while fundamental science which works with the use of the best
practices due to the return of qualified specialists and significant infrastructure costs, but at the
same time experiencing an acute lack of qualified scientists to carry out field, applied researches.
If analyze the research priorities in the world, the common ones are:
1) competitiveness of agricultural products;
2) the impact of agriculture manufacturing on the environment;
3) rural and the living standards of the rural population development.
For example, the research priorities in the field of agriculture in the United States are:
1) ensuring the safety and high quality of agricultural products;
2) evaluation of the nutritional value and quality of food;
3) maintaining the competitiveness of the agricultural sector of the economy;
4) preservation of the environment;
5) the expansion of the economic opportunities for the rural population and rural
development.
The total budget of the Ministry of Agriculture on researches and development in 2012
amounted 2.5 billion US dollars (including the program NIFA), which is the highest rate in the
world.
Researches conducted by the Agricultural Research Service of the USDA, include 800
projects, structured within four programs:
1) Nutrition, food safety and quality.
2) Productivity and animal welfare.
3) Natural resources and sustainable agricultural systems.
4) Efficiency and protection of crops.
In addition to the Agricultural Research Service, a significant amount of knowledge
generated in the research 109 Land Grant Universities. Host of them is the University of
California, Davis which has a research budget for the agricultural sector of $ 143 million (2012,
19.1% of the total research budget of the University). The main areas of researches are: food
security and agricultural productivity, adaptation of agriculture to climate change and sustainable
management of natural resources.
Besides the federal budget, significant funds on researches are given by the administration
of the states. Mostly, these funds are for local researches, conducted by research universities, and
make up to 20% of the total research budget of the leading universities.
In France, which has the world’s second performance of agricultural research system, as
priority areas of research determinated:
1) food and nutrition;
24
2) products and processes:
3) fundamental researches in biology (post-genomic research, systematic and integrative
biology, genomics);
4) systems of manufacturing;
5) environment;
6) agricultural policy.
The annual budget of the National Institute of Agricultural Research of France (INRA) in
2012 amounted 839 million Evro1.
The main areas of researches in 2012 were:
1) global food security in a changing world;
2) integration of economic, social and environmental characteristics of agriculture and
forestry;
3) adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate changes consequences and global
warming slowing;
4) the uses of biomass in the energy and chemistry;
5) promotion of sustainable food systems for a healthy diet;
6) biological methods of the productivity forecasting;
7) agro-ecological researches.
In Canada, where the national agricultural research system is very similar to the model of
the organization of agricultural science in the United States, the priority directions include
improving the productivity and competitiveness of agricultural production, environmental
sustainability, healthy and quality food, improving rural livelihoods.
Total costs on the financing of agricultural researches from the federal budget amount to
an average $ 360 million per year. In addition, there are developed funding from provincial
governments. For example, at the University of Alberta’s share of funding from the local budget
in the total research budget is 26%.
In Australia, which has one of the fastest growing agricultural research systems in the
world, research priorities are formalized within the framework of the Joint Research Centre
(Cooperative Research Centres) which is a program initiative of the Australian Government and
provides the long-term cooperative researches with federal and regional agencies, universities,
government and private laboratories, entities of the business sector.
According to the rules, each CRC-program should be directed to the priority tasks solving
which are facing Australia, and is focused on a particular end user. Besides created through the
research solutions must be innovative and cost-effective, and in addition to the actual scientific
results should be developed specific products on their base and training programs (or modules)
for the teaching of the acquired knowledge at the universities-participants of the CRC-programs.
Term of the program financing makes up to 10 years.
CRC-programs are the main form of organization of scientific researches in Australia. In
the 2012 - 2013 implemented 38 CRC-programs, of which 8 in the field of agriculture, forestry
and fisheries:
1) production of aquaculture objects and a sea food;
2) forestry;
3) pig breeding and production of the high-quality pork;
1
http://institut.inra.fr/en/Overview/Documents/Annual-reports/2012-Annual-report#
25
4) sheep breeding;
5) milk production and processing;
6) farm of the future (non-traditional agricultural products manufacturing technologies,
energy consumption and the emissions of CO2, etc. reducing);
7) aviculture;
8) plants protection.
Since the start of CRC-programs in 1991 across all the directions were financed
196 programs. The Australian Government has allocated more than $ 3.5 billion dollars for these
purposes, the other participants gave $ 11.4 billion in the form of cash and property. Thus, $ 1 of
governmental costs attracted $ 3.25 from other sources.
In addition to funding from the federal budget, individual ministries of Australia, in
particular the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries have the grant programs of
researches which financed from the proceeds of the special industrial taxes.
For example, manufacturers of cotton from each bale deduct $ 2.25 to a special fund and
the state allocates through the Scientific Research Corporation of cotton the same amount, but not
more than 0.5% of the gross value of the cotton produced by farmers at the sale price. The
Corporation also reinvests income received as royalties for the use of previous researches. At the
same time the corporation does not have its own research centers, but only acts as an operator of
formed fund, distributing it on a grant basis.
The budget of the corporation for 2013-2014, without administrative expenses made up
$ 21.8 million (3.3 billion tenge), that’s mean if take into account the contributions of cotton
producers total budget of the grant research program will be $ 43.6 million (6.6 billion tenge).
There are 6 similar corporations in Australia: in addition to the cotton corporation there
are the same structures on fisheries (public funding $ 26.7 million per year), viticulture and
winemaking ($ 22.9 million per year), grain ($ 182 million per year) , sugar ($ 9 million per year),
the agricultural industry ($ 23.2 million per year).
In Germany, which does not occupy a leading position in the global system of agricultural
science (development of agricultural engineering, researches in the field of processing of
agricultural products, expertise in barley and rapeseed selection), agricultural research priorities
are:
1) agricultural products manufacturing;
2) consumer rights protection and the quality of food products;
3) environment protection;
4) agriculture adaptation to climate change;
5) assessment of the risks in agricultural production;
6) the rural areas development;
7) food security.
The main priority of agricultural researches in China is to increase productivity in
agriculture, due to the need in food among the largest in the world country population in the
context of limited resources. Of the 39 research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural
Sciences 15 engaged in crop production, 11 in animal farming, 8 in the field of sustainable
management of natural resources and economic development, 5 in the field of agricultural
engineering and the use of high technology in agriculture.
Research priorities are structured according to the object of study within 9 groups:
26
1) Plant science.
2) Animal sciences.
3) Applied microbiology.
4) Agricultural resources and the environment.
5) Food production technologies.
6) Quality standards and food products testing.
7) Agricultural economics and rural development.
8) Agricultural engineering.
9) Information systems in agriculture.
The most significant global achievements of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural
Sciences is the researches in the field of plant genomics, theory of super rice selection, prevention
and control of animal epidemics.
In the Latin America countries, which are the leading manufacturers and exporters of
agricultural products - Argentina and Brazil - the amount of funding in the agricultural
researches is $ 448 million and $ 839 million per year (2011) respectively. The highest dynamics
takes place in Brazil, the results show that in 2012 the volume of financing of agricultural science
has exceeded $ 1 billion. That puts her in a 4th place in the world after the United States,
Australia and France.
Priorities of researches in these countries focus primarily on improving the
competitiveness of agricultural products in various aspects: reducing losses from diseases and
pests, improving stress resistance and productivity of crops and livestock.
IX. Analysis of competencies in the field of R&D in Kazakhstan
Agricultural science in Kazakhstan, despite the positive trend of some indicators in recent
years, is not now fully able to operatively and with the proper quality solve all of the facing
agribusiness technological challenges and to ensure its sustainable development in the long term
by offering relevant innovations. Therefore, the President instructed to develop a program of the
reformation of the domestic agricultural science in order to build on its basis a modern, highperformance branch innovation system.
The draft Programme is a set of coherent and interrelated activities, aimed on creating an
effective model of management of scientific and technical activity in the field of AIC, the
formation of financial, human and infrastructural support which required for the sustainable
development of agricultural science.
Researches on Agriculture and related subjects at the expense of public funding made
today by a number of scientific organizations, both public and equivalent.
The main ones are:
1) JSC “KazAgroInnovation” Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan and
its subsidiaries organizations2 which form the national agricultural research systems;
2)
three agricultural universities: Kazakh National Agrarian University, Kazakh
Agrotechnical University, S. Seifullin and West Kazakhstan Agrarian Technical University
named after Zhangir Khan;
3) specialized research organizations of the Ministry of Education and Science of the
Republic of Kazakhstan;
2
The system of “KazAgroInnovation” unites 43 subsidiaries, of which 23 research institutes and 14 research and
experimental farms
.
27
4)
series of the regional public universities which have its departments of agricultural
profile.
Applied
researches
mostly
carry
out
by
research
organizations
of
JSC “KazAgroInnovation” and by three agricultural universities. Herewith 95% of public assets
in the field of agricultural science concentrated in JSC “KazAgroInnovation”.
Fundamental researches (especially in the new promising scientific disciplines such as
biotechnology) are actively developed in research institutions located in the department of the
Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The research base of JSC “KazAgroInnovation” presented by 23 research institutes.
Experimental base is represented by 14 experimental-production farms which located mainly in
the northern and southern regions of the country. Applied researches conducted in all research
institutions and in 7 experimental-production farms.
The research institutes have 75% of buildings which were put into operation before 1980,
and require overhaul.
The share of laboratory equipment over 20 years old is more than 50%. More than 60% of
the agricultural equipment have a lifespan of over 15 years, and also need to be updated.
However, formed scientific potential continues to demonstrate significant effectiveness.
So, this year, the area of application of resource-saving technologies has made more than 12
million ha. According to experts of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
(CIMMYT), this year Kazakhstan took the 9th place in the world by the area of application of the
zero technology, by the temps of the spreading of water saving technologies in agriculture took
the second place in the world after China.
According to their calculations, the approximate increase in yield of wheat from the use of
water saving technologies in Kazakhstan in 2012 amounted 720 thousand tons, or 220 million US
dollars. This increase fully covers the costs of the state budget for the financing of the entire
system of agricultural research for 10 years.
Every year about 50 of new crops varieties which have improved economic-valuable
indicators go for variety testing. The sown area of crops under domestic varieties in 2012 was
6.8 million ha., or more than 42% of the sown area of grain. In the general register of selection
achievements permitted for use in the Republic of Kazakhstan the 1614 varieties and
492 hybrids (30.4%) are the result of domestic selection. Including the organization of
JSC “KazAgroInnovation” which selected 478 varieties, the organizations of the Ministry of
Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan selected 5 varieties.
Selection process in animal farming covered by more than 700 thousand heads of cattle,
or 13% of the total cattle population.
In order to accelerate the implementation of scientific researches into practice, according
to the world’s best practice3, in the national agricultural research system forms a system of
knowledge dissemination.
Such a system is the main mechanism for transmitting uncommercial research results into
manufacturing. Currently, on the base of the research organizations of the
JSC “KazAgroInnovation” operating ten centers of knowledge dissemination. The main tool in
the implementation of competitive innovation is a teaching the practice of advanced technology
and consulting support in the implementation of advanced technologies in practice.
__________________________
3
The system extension - Extension - is an integral part of each national agricultural research systems, allows an
accelerated implementation of the new developments into the practice and to maintain continuous interaction with the
subjects of agricultural production
28
In total, since 2009, training in various areas of agriculture have passed more than 9,200
agribusiness entities, provided more than 9,500 direct and remote consultations.
In accordance to the Law “On Science” of the Republic of Kazakhstan, some coordination
functions in the area of agricultural science submitted to the National Research Councils in terms of
decision-making on financing from the state budget research and innovation activities and of the
competitive selection of scientific, technical projects and programs.
Today, agricultural science is a competence of several national research councils: life
sciences, energy sciences, deep processing of raw materials and products, intellectual potential. The
main of these is the National Research Council for the Life Sciences, which deals with the main
problems of livestock and crop production, along with such extensive knowledge areas as
medicine, pharmacy, biology and ecology and that does not provide proper attention to agricultural
problems in certain areas, such as agronomy, soil science and others.
The attraction of foreign experts in order to solve the particular problems is not acceptable
even for large-scale agricultural units. Specificity of the agricultural sector is that direct transfer of
foreign technology can not guarantee better performance. Agricultural technologies, crop varieties
and other developments in the field of AIC require adaptation to local conditions of their
application.
9.1. Analysis of the development and the financing of science and technology
The main part of the state funding of the applied agricultural researches is allocated by the
program-oriented funding, administered by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of
Kazakhstan.
Funding of the basic researches in the AIC is also carried out by the Ministry of Education
and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the framework of program-targeted and grant
funding.
Gross domestic expenditure on agricultural researches in 2011 amounted to 3.6 billion
tenge (according to the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan), or 0.16% of the gross
domestic product of agriculture. Since 2004, domestic costs on science in general in Kazakhstan
increased in 3.2 times, the costs on agricultural science in 2.7 times.
The level of funding of agricultural science is insufficient. For example, in countries with
high agricultural productivity, which are the leaders on the world food markets, this parameter is
usually not less than 1%. For example, in France and Australia on agricultural researches funds
3% of the gross domestic product of agriculture, in Canada 1.5%, in the US and Brazil 1% each.
In 2011, governmental funding per researcher in the JSC “KazAgroInnovation” was about
2.6 million tenge (17.6 thausand USD/person). In general in the republic per one researcher about
3.7 million tenge (25 thousand dollars/person), which is 30% more than in the
JSC “KazAgroInnovation” system.
29
To compare in Argentina this parameter makes up 180 thousand US dollars per year, in
Brazil 198 thousand US dollars per year, in France about 580 thousand US dollars per year.
The location of agricultural research organizations in the country is uneven. More than
50% are concentrated in the city of Almaty and the southern regions of the country, about 30% in
the northern and central Kazakhstan, 7% in the west, and 3% in the eastern regions of
Kazakhstan.
The share of scientists engaged in agricultural researches in the total number of
researchers of the republic is 9.5%.
The average age of doctors is 62 years old, of PhD is 52 years. The share of researchers in
the age of more than 60 years is about 24%. The share of scientists under the age of 35 years is
about 32%.
In the all countries, regardless of the level of development of agriculture, the bulk of
funding for agricultural research comes from the state sources. For example, despite the high
level of agricultural development, the level of financing of agricultural science from nongovernmental sources in France and Israel, is 13-15%, in Brazil 12%.
At the same time, in order to achieve a similar level of funding from the private sector, for
decades, agricultural science as a priority was financed from the state budget. This allowed to
increase the necessary competence and to create an infrastructure for the generation of
competitive innovations that meet the needs of the private sector.
In general, as was told, the level of funding of agricultural science in the countries with
developed agriculture is at least 1% of the gross product of the branch.
Traditionally, the main directions of the use of funding from public sources are:
1) covering of the running costs on reseaches, including staff development and
international cooperation;
2) costs on maintaining competence and infrastructure gained in previous years,
including sectors which are not a priority at this phase;
3) costs on upgrade of research and experimental infrastructure.
In this connection, in order to solve the existing problems in the field of agricultural
science and to create conditions for its sustainable development, have to be phased increase in
funding of agricultural science.
9.2 The analysis of the directions conducted by the R&D
Within the framework of the priorities of agricultural researches of the program-targeted
financing on 2012-2014 were defined the main directions:
1. Increasing of the genetic potential productivity of crops and improving of the
agricultural technologies for different agro-ecological zones of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
 formation, introduction, conservation and storage of the genetic crop resources;
 testing of the highly productive crop varieties of foreign selection, foreign equipment
and technologies in a different natural-climatic and soil conditions of the Republic of
Kazakhstan;
 establishment and improvement of the highly productive and resistant to stress factors
varieties and hybrids of agricultural crops using conventional selection techniques, cellular
engineering, molecular genetics and bioengineering;
30
 development and application of adaptive systems of land tenure and water and resource
saving technologies;
 preservation and restoration of soil fertility;
 crop protection improving;
 development of the highly effective biological products to fight plant diseases and pests;
 the development of highly effective machines systems for resource-saving technologies
of cultivation of crops and fodder.
2. Increasing of the genetic potential of productivity, improvement of the feeding
technologies, providing and reproduction of farm animals, birds, fish and bees in different
regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
 formation, scrutiny, certification of farm animal genetic;
 development of the technologies for adaptation of the livestock of foreign selection to
different zones of Kazakhstan;
 creation and improvement of breeds, types, lines and crosses of farm animals, birds and
bees;
 improvement of the existing and development of the new technologies in feeding and
providing of farm animals, birds and bees;
 creation of veterinary diagnostics, therapeutic drugs and vaccines;
 development of diagnosis methods, prevention and treatment of infectious and parasitic
diseases of animals and birds;
 development of methods for identification of hazardous substances and to assess the
safety of animal products;
 development of the technical facilities of the energy and water supplying based on the
use of alternative energy sources.
3. Improving the techniques and technology of the primary and deep processing of
agricultural raw materials and its storage:
 formation, research, maintenance and documentation of the genofond of
microorganisms and their use in the agricultural and food biotechnology;
 improving of the primary processing and diversification of the products deep processing
of agricultural raw materials by creating new technologies for deep and complex processing of
animal and vegetable origin production;
 creation of products with raised food and biological value and durable shelf life;
 development of the new cost-effective technologies which contribute to the maximum
preservation of quality and reduction of losses of fruits and vegetables during;
 development of high-performance systems of the process equipment for the processing
of agricultural products for small businesses.
4. Ensuring the conservation and restoration of natural resources in the processes of
manufacturing in agriculture:
 development of technologies for commercial breeding of sturgeon and other
commercially valuable fish species and their hybrids in the conditions of full-system fish farms of
Kazakhstan;
 improving the efficiency of the process and technical support of the water development
of farms (reclamation, irrigation, irrigation equipment and technology for watering);
 improving the management of forest and soil resources in the Republic of Kazakhstan;
 integrated assessment of ecological and epidemiological status of bioresources of
reservoirs Kazakhstan.
31
5.
Research on factors of efficiency of agricultural production and innovative
development of rural areas:
 technological development forecasting and identification of technological problems in
the AIC;
 development of agro-information systems for practical application in practical activity
of AIC subjects;
 analysis of the state policy in the agricultural sector and proposals for its improvement;
 analysis of rural livelihoods and rural development;
 development of the research-based organizational and economic measures for
improvement of the competitiveness of agricultural products.
These lines of research are directed on solving the strategic goals of AIC of the country,
and consequently are characterized as applied researches. It should be noted that two studies
carried out in collaboration with foreign research organizations, such as:
INRA (France) - Genomic breeding productivity of dairy cattle;
Australian Centre for Plant Functional Genomics - the use of methods of genetic marking
in selection of hard spring wheat grain on the drought;
ICARDA International Center - creation and use of the charting barley populations with
wild relatives;
Indian Hud (Canada) - improvement of the resource-saving technologies in dry
conditions;
Biocenter at the State Research University of Seoul (South Korea) - maintenance of
primary vegetable-seed industry of potatoes on the basis of microtubers;
Center for Agricultural Studies named after A.Volkani (Israel) - breeding of tomato for
protected ground;
University of Southampton (United Kingdom) - the study of water saving technologies
and irrigation techniques and a number of Russian universities and scientific organizations on
various subjects, both in the crop and in the livestock industry, fish farming, etc.
According to the researches in 2012 were published 3,212 scientific publications, which is
twice more than a level of 2007.
Fig.9 – Quantity of publications
To compare, in 1995 with greater numbers of scientists have been published only
190 scientific articles, in 2000 – 792 scientific articles.
The total number of publications in other foreign countries accounted 137 published
articles (4.3%), 5 of them in publications with impact factor greater than 0.5 according to the
Thomson Reuters system.
32
The relatively low number of publications in the cited editions due to the fact that studies
of the society are mainly characterized as the applied in nature and oriented on the conditions of
the Republic of Kazakhstan. The number of thematic publications with high citation index for the
results publication of applied agricultural research is very limited.
Were published 298 titles of printed materials which containing information about
research results (twice more than in 2007).
Traditionally, the greatest number made by practical recommendations of the use of
modern technologies (188, 63.5%). In sectoral terms, the largest number of titles of printed
materials was published in the lines of crop industry.
Processing, package – 3
Bread, culinary, confectionery products – 9
Products storage - 1
Agriculture
Herbicides, insecticides – 9
AIC technics, mechanization – 21
AIC models – 8
Crop industry, crop protection – 27
Selection, seed breeding – 34
Cultivation of crops – 1
Grain processing – 10
Suspension concentrates – 1
Bio supplements, biologics - 16
Feeds, additives – 4
The soil, seeding – 11
Hydroplanting – 8
Forestry - 3
Patents:
Animal breeding
Selection – 38
Veterinary – 70
Immunology – 8
Microbiology – 29
Virology – 16
Mycology – 3
Poultry breeding – 1
Feed, additives – 14
Food
BAA – 6
Milk – 30
Equipment – 13
Flour and cereal – 3
Meat – 7
Food and flavoring – 9
X. The strategies of actions for Scenario realization
Agri-industrial complex of Kazakhstan has a number of favorable conditions for
successful development in the long term, which include the following:
Strengths.
Agriculture of Kazakhstan at this stage is in a phase of active development. The potential
of agriculture is quite high and diverse in its capabilities.
Kazakhstan has large areas of agricultural land, which are currently not used in full.
Against the backdrop of relatively low population this fact implies (1) a low risk of a shortage of
basic kinds of agricultural products on the domestic market, (2) high potential for export
expansion and diversification of manufacturing, (3) the possibility of diversification of production
due to extensive factors (including turnover not used yet agricultural land), which requires a
relatively lower costs compared to the manufacturing intensification.
When implementing mechanisms of the development of agriculture much attention gives
to the maximal use of the stimulating opportunities of measures of state support.
Prospects of the development of agriculture in Kazakhstan are also associated with an
increase of the role of science and innovation in the agricultural sector. Despite the presence of a
number of systemic issues affecting the efficiency of agricultural science, preserved scientific
potential presented by the historical system of educational and industrial enterprises of
agricultural science. Said organization has accumulated an indispensable set of data about the
features of agriculture in terms of various natural and climatic and soil zones formed on the basis
of many years of research.
33
In these latter days, much attention is paid to diversification and increasing of crop
farming culture, strict adherence to science-based crop rotations, the transition to modern water
and resources saving technologies, progressive methods of irrigation and others. Today in a
branch of crop industry they work on the implementation of structural and technological
diversification, the expansion of cultivated areas of priority crops to ensure food security,
increase production of export-oriented competitive products.
All this indicates a significant potential for the development of agro-industrial complex of
Kazakhstan and for increase its attractiveness for domestic and foreign investors. At the present
time, if take into account new mechanisms of state support under the “Agribusiness 2020”
program, experts estimate the investment opportunities in this sector of the economy as very
favorable.
The main crop industry sector in Kazakhstan is traditionally grain. Kazakhstan has a
strong position among the leading exporters of grain and flour. This is a positive factor for the
promotion of new products to the world market.
The main cereal crop is wheat, for which there is a significant demand abroad, especially
in the West (Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkey) and South (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Afghanistan) export routes.
One of the strengths is also a dynamically developing, flexible system of state support of
agriculture, with an emphasis on indirect methods of stimulating private-sector resource flows
into the sector.
In order to transfer foreign technology and personnel training Kazakhstan is actively
cooperating with international organizations on the basis of agreements, treaties, protocols and
memorandums. In recent years, domestic and international development institutions initiated
projects to implement consulting centers (extension-centers) for farmers in order to improve the
use of advanced technologies in agriculture.
Weaknesses.
The basis of the agricultural sector in Kazakhstan is medium and small producers. Among
these are peasants and farmers, the number of which actually operating in the country is about
170 thousand. Today peasants and farmers play an important role in strengthening the country’s
food security, are the foundation of small businesses in rural areas, are the core of economic and
social stability in rural areas.
At the same time in the development of the peasantry and farmers are still many
unresolved problems, one of which is the fragmentation of peasants and farmers.
An acute problem for the peasants and farmers of the country is extremely poor material
and technical equipment. Because of the lack of acceptable collateral base for financial
institutions, low profitability of agricultural production due to lack of government support
measures, this category of small businesses in rural areas deprived of the opportunity to update
the basic capital goods, and above all, a machine-technology park. For this reason, today about
80% of farms run on physically worn out and obsolete equipment. All this is a major cause of low
productivity. Moreover maintain such equipment every year becomes financially burdensome.
34
The practice of the past period, and forecasts for the future, clearly shows that if current
approaches to the renewal of the basic capital goods, the vast majority of farms have virtually no
chance of updating machines and tractors and thereby doomed to end its activities with relevant
social consequences for society.
In Kazakhstan recognize that a major problem of agriculture is a degradation of
agricultural land and crop protection. According to the data of the chemicals service, Kazakhstan
arable land each year has a loss without compensation of 2.5 million tons of nutrients when the
soil remediation is required to produce and make the land of 1.8 million tons of phosphate, 1.1
million of nitrogen and 0.4 million tons of potassium fertilizers. Volumes of the used nitrogen
fertilizers in the last 10 years have decreased in 34 times.
One of the internal origin factors, impeding the development of AIC is the lack of budget
financing of R&D in comparison with the technology leading countries and major suppliers of
the agricultural products on the world market.
During the years of reform of agricultural science and economics AIC, lack of funding for
the development of material and technical base in general has led to the incommensurability
material-technical base of scientific research institutions and scientific service organizations with
the modern requirements. There is an urgent need to update the instrument park of the NRU
laboratories, which in most institutions were used for over 30 years. This situation is not
favorable for conducting researches on a global level.
Similar situation exists with the material and technical basis of scientific service
organizations (research and production farms and experimental-industrial enterprises). About
70% of agricultural equipment have to be replaced. The experimental farms do not have a perfect
phytotrons and zootrons, automated micro technology for selection work, no modern micro
equipment for processing of experimental selection plots of land, sowing the seeds for them and
harvesting.
Landlocked and undeveloped internal logistics infrastructure adversely affects the value
and share of transportation costs in the price of agricultural products.
There are no objective settings of targets for scientists and no evaluation of progress, the
tool of commercialization of domestic scientific researches is undeveloped, which generally led
to underdevelopment of the innovation system in the agricultural sector.
Thus, as show the results of SWOT-analysis in Kazakhstan along with favorable
conditions, there are a number of problems and threats that can negatively affect the development
of domestic agriculture.
It is better to range strengths and weaknesses, for example, on their relevance to the target
or intermediate customers.
Opportunities and threats are ranked also, for example, in accordance with the force of
their impact on the goals of research, and the probability of their occurrence and speed, etc.
On the basis of the identified strengths and weaknesses of agri-industrial complex,
opportunities and threats of agriculture of Kazakhstan, we will define the strategic directions of
the development of agribusiness. In the formation of the most important strategies we are leaving
significant sides and performing the following analysis:
35

how can strengths help to use possibilities which appear in a changing environ
and to counteract threatenings of the environ?

how can weaknesses interfere in use of the possibilities which appear in a
changing environ and in counteracting threatenings of the environ?
Each strengths and weaknesses checked for compliance to the listed in the analysis
opportunities and threats. If, for example, strength able to help in completing any possibility or
prevent influence of any danger.
As a result of this analysis formed four groups of different strategies to understand the
current situation and to develop proposals for changes in the development of agriculture.
Table 5 shows the results of the formation of action strategies based on SWOT analysis
for the direction “Sustainable development of agrarian sector, the processing and food safety”.
In order to develop this direction in this Scenario it is proposed to use the events, which
form four main strategies:
1. The strategy of technological modernization and sustainable development (aimed on
using and strengthening the existing advantages in order of realization of the opportunities
provided by the environ). It assumes full use of modern methods of technological forecasting, to
expand the researches in terms of increasing stress-resistance of crops, in cooperation with
organizations – the world’s technology leaders in this field; increase the volume and the range of
agricultural products, with the expense of extensive and less costly factors, through a joint
venture for the production and processing of agricultural products, using research on agricultural
biodiversity, and other.
2. The strategy of the line development in the conditions of uncertainty (the strategy
focuses on the use of existing advantages in the direction to reduce the impact of external
threats). It suggests to focus on maintaining and increasing the level of state support of
agriculture to achieve food security, the development of high export potential and the capacity to
diversify agricultural production, improving the competitiveness of products in order to reduce
the risk of strong competitors in the markets; reducing the effects of climate change on
agricultural production, in order to strengthen sustainable positions among the leading exporters
of grain and flour, as well as other agricultural products, etc.
3. The strategy of reducing of the negative impact of the formed lifestyles (strategy
involves reducing of the impact of the weaknesses inherent for direction due to the external
environ opportunities). It involves close attention to investments improving for the modernization
of agriculture and processing industry, including attracting foreign investment as a part of a joint
logistics system; to promote agribusiness in the application of scientific research on PPP to
conduct research that will lead to an increase of the level of funding of domestic agricultural
science at the expense of growth of demand and others.
4. The strategy of leveling threats and direction restructuring (strategy aimed on
eliminating weaknesses of the line and on counteraction to external threats). Assumes food
security ensuring in a number of key goods: meat, milk, feed, etc.; improving of the system of
quality control and food safety, etc.
36
Table 1 - Formation of action strategies based on SWOT analysis for the line “Sustainable development of agrarian sector, the processing
and food safety”
Possibilities (P)
Analysis of the environ and the
formation of a strategy based on
SWOT analysis
Strengths (S)
5. Large areas of farmland
6. Rapidly growing, flexible system of the
state support of agriculture, with an
emphasis on indirect methods of stimulation
7. Stable position among the leading
exporters of grain and flour
8. The high potential of manufacturing and
increasing exports of environmentally
friendly agricultural products
9. A high export potential and potential for
agricultural diversification
10. Expansion of volumes and range of
exports of agricultural production amid a
global increase in food demand
Threats (T)
 Reaching an agreement on the rational use of transboundary
rivers
 Increasing of demand for agricultural products in foreign
markets
 Proximity to large potential markets of agricultural products
 Creation of joint ventures for the manufacturing and processing
of agricultural products, mechanical engineering
 Creation of a joint logistics system
 Integration into the international scientific and educational
space
 Attracting of the foreign investments
S - P Strategy
 Reducing the volume and instruments of the state support due to
WTO accession
 Dependence on foreign countries in access to water resources of
transboundary rivers
 The global economic crisis
 Instability of the phytosanitary and veterinary safety in the
neighboring regions
 The negative effects of climate change and of unresolved
environmental problems
 The probability of the appearance of new competitors in the
domestic and foreign markets as a result of the integration
process;
possible
loss
of
the
market
niches
S - T Strategy
 Effectively apply the agreement on rational use of
transboundary rivers in agricultural production
 Creation of joint ventures for agricultural machinery using
foreign investment and government support for the development
of agro-industrial complex
 Effective use of new areas of farmland with attracting of
foreign investments and with using of advanced domestic and
foreign technologies for the manufacturing and growing of
export capacity of the organic, environmentally friendly
products.
 To provide sustainable development in the field of grain
production, using the developing system of state support of
agriculture, proximity to the majoragricultural products markets,
with improving of the logistics system and the harmonization of
quality standards of domestic grain with international standards.
 Using the integration of scientific and educational space, to
prepare qualified specialists the agrarians which with the using
of the existing system of scientific, educational and industrial
enterprises of agricultural science, realize a high export potential
and the potential for agricultural manufacturing diversification
and implementing technologies of the “green” economy.
37
 To defend the position of Kazakhstan in matters of equitable
access to water resources of transboundary rivers for the
sustainable development of AIC
11. Maximally maintain and increase the level and tools of the
state support of AIC for achieving food security, the development
of high export potential and the capacity to diversify agricultural
manufacturing, improving the competitiveness of products in order
to reduce the risk of strong competitors appearing on the markets
12. Take measures in reducing the effects of climate change on
agricultural manufacturing, in order to strengthen sustainable
positions among the leading exporters of grain and flour, as well as
other agricultural products
13. Using biodiversity to achieve high agricultural production
potential, while strengthening control and action on the penetration
of dangerous agricultural products from neighboring regions
 Use moisture-saving technologies (drip irrigation, use of
groundwater, etc.), energy saving and renewable energy sources
(solar, wind, biofuels) to increase the competitiveness of domestic
agricultural products, with the global economic crisis and the
growing influence of transnational corporations in the AIC
Weaknesses (W*)
 Location in the zone of risky agriculture
 The deficit of water resources for
agriculture
 Weak material and technical equipment of
AIC
 Increase the amount and range of agricultural products due
to the extensive and less costly factors through a joint venture
for the manufacturing and processing of agricultural products,
using research on agro-biodiversity, and the use of new droughtresistant and salt-resistant crops.
 Crop production diversification by the planned reduction of
the areas under monoculture - wheat - to the optimal values
(including crop rotation) in favor of expanding the areas under
oilseeds, cereals, legumes and fodder crops which are in
demand on the domestic and foreign markets and which
characterized by greater profitability.
 Outsourcing of large agricultural enterprises resources for
co-financing of the researches on priority technology areas,
transfer and adaptation of the best foreign technologies.
 Restoration of outrun stockbreeding on unused farmland by
providing irrigation of pastures, implementation of the models
of sustainable pasture resources management, in order to
increase manufacturing of high-quality, low-cost meat
products.
 Expansion of scientific researches in terms of increasing
stress resistance of crops using advanced achievements of
fundamental science, in cooperation with organizations - the
world’s technology leaders in this field.

Stop the penetration of low-quality agricultural products
through improved quality control system and food safety
 International cooperation in order to optimize delivery routes for
domestic agricultural products to the world markets, the
implementation of technologies to ensure long-term storage of
agricultural products in order to increase routes of agricultural
products transportation.
W* - P Strategy
W* - T Strategy
 Diversification and involvement into the agricultural use of  Increasing the material and technical equipment in the agricultural
unused land, the development of support measures for areas sector, with an increase in the state’s support of manufacturers,
foreign technologies transfer into production
where food security is not ensured, etc.
 Increasing in R&D funding, training of qualified personnel for the
agricultural sector, creating conditions for attracting young people
into science
38
 Small-scale manufacturing in a number of
key types of the agricultural products
 The landlocked and underdeveloped
logistics infrastructure
 Ineffective legislation on the regulation of
certain areas of agribusiness
 Inadequate funding of R&D
 The low level of investments into the
agricultural sector
 Lack of interest from the agribusiness in
collaboration with the national agricultural
science

Expansion of the scientific researches, including joint agricultural sector, creating conditions for attracting young people
ventures with foreign scientists, aimed on reducing the influence  Improving
into scienceof the legislation in the regulation of certain areas of
of the conditions of risky agriculture by creating a stress- agriculture, to reduce the threat of “global economic crisis”,
resistant crops, development of resource-saving technologies
“instability in the phytosanitary and veterinary safety in the

The use of water resources of transboundary rivers to neighboring regions”, “the negative impacts of climate change
eliminate the deficit of water for irrigation in the zone of risky and unresolved environmental problems”
agriculture
 Providing food security in a number of key goods: meat, milk, feed
 Develop a program of modernization of agriculture and and others.
processing industry by increasing investment, including  Stopping the penetration of low-quality agricultural products, by
attracting foreign investment as part of a joint logistics system
improving the system of quality control and food safety
 Develop a program to stimulate the agribusiness in the
application of scientific research on PPP to conduct research
that will lead to an increase in the level of funding of domestic
agricultural science at the expense of growth in demand

Integration into the international scientific and educational
space through joint research, personnel training, creation of
research centers of research in the field of “green” economy,
biotechnology, nanotechnology, genetic engineering vaccines,
new technologies (GMOs, etc.), biological products, etc.
 Creating real incentives and mechanisms for agricultural cooperatives, as well as targeted development of ready complex
technology solutions (“box” solutions) for small-scale farms
which provide an acceptable level of profitability, increased
productivity and compliance to the safety of products.

Given the lack of access to the sea, to maximally explore
the need for the neighboring large potential markets and develop
a concept of the manufacturing of competitive products in
demand, to capture export niches

Using the integration of scientific and educational space
overcome the deficit and the outflow of of skilled personnel in
the agricultural sector, and attract young people in agricultural
science
39
 Enlarge output of agricultural products, using both extensive
farming technology and foreign technology transfer
 Develop all of the necessary lows, technical norms,
and quality standards of the agricultural products according to
the international requirements
 Widening the volumes and tools of the state support of
agricultural manufacturers for the modernization of the technical
base, transfer of the international technologies

Increasing of the funding of the R&D, training of the
qualified personnel for agricultural sector, creation the
conditions for for attracting young people into science
 Improving the training system of agriculture stuff by involving
potential employers in the formation of educational programs,
transfer and adaptation of educational programs of the leading
agricultural universities, the expansion of the share of practical
training in the educational process, with simultaneous
development of the system of incentives for the influx of young
professionals in rural areas and in agricultural science
 Reforming the system of allocation of funds and the formation
of subjects of research in agricultural science with a view to
focus on the current and projected needs of the subjects of AIC,
creating incentives for the involvement of agribusiness entities
in ongoing research activities and innovation implementation
 Development of the own competence in the management of
genetic potential of farm animals by comparing the
performance of the genotype and phenotype, and identification
on this basis the laws which affect the expression of
agronomic characters.
40
Analysis of Kazakhstan competencies in the field of research of the line “Sustainable
development of the agricultural sector, the processing and food safety” allows you to select
options for the development of scientific programs for the successful implementation of the
scientific and technical activities of the proposed strategies.
Kazakhstan
competencie
Independent
s
development of the
research programs
Joint research with
leading centers
Table 2 - Areas of research and competency in Kazakhstan
Areas

The development of rural areas in order to create comfortable living
conditions in rural areas

Involving to the agricultural use of unused land

Increasing the stress resistance of the traditional crops with using the
biotechnology and global agrobiocenosis

Development the technologies of the management of farm animal genetic
potential

Complex and adaptive to climatic conditions technologies of the cultivation of
crops and maintenance of farm animals

Development the technologies of deep processing and long term
storage of agricultural products

Application in agriculture technology elements which reduce carbon dioxide
emissions

Development of the organic farming

Monitoring of occurrence and constant study of particularly dangerous
diseases, forecasting and risk management in the field of veterinary and phytosanitary
security

Reduction of the water consumption in agriculture and sustainable water
resources management

Application in agriculture elements technologies for reproduction of natural
resources (soil fertility, geobotany composition, forest plantations)
41
XI. «Wild cards»
 The uncontrolled use of genetic engineering technologies
 Growing organs from the stem cells and the progress in transplantation, transformation
people into cyborgs
 Artificial food from the cell culture
 Lengthening the duration and quality of life by preventing negative changes in the genotype,
preparation of individual genetic passports and genetic diagnostics
 New technologies in the climate management and their unilateral use
 The global hyperconnectivity, “digital fire”
 Rising sea levels, floods, flooding parts of Europe and Japan
 Environmental disasters, earthquakes, large explosions of nuclear power plants
 Large people migrations
 Contact with the extraterrestrial civilization, the discovery of extraterrestrial life
XII. Risks and threats of the Scenario realization
The agricultural sector is subject of the greatest (if compare with the other sectors of the
economy) impact of the factors leading to the following risks:

Macroeconomic risks associated with the deterioration of the inner and outer world prices
for products of the branch

Increased competition on the international markets, high competition from the world’s
leading companies in connection with the entry into the WTO for a number of products

Adverse changes in climatic conditions, both short and long term (global warming and the
associated increase in arid and semi-arid lands, growing water deficit, weather conditions
instability, etc.)

Critical depreciation of the infrastructure for transportation of products to the target markets
and the consequent rise in the cost of delivery

Dissemination of diseases of animals and plants, and environmental pollution, the parasitic
species of plants, animals, fish, insects that will reduce the availability of land, water and other
resources, and loss of industry productivity as a whole, can reduce the export potential of the
AIC of Kazakhstan

The low level of profitability of businesses

Depletion of the potential of land, water, biological resources, genetic potential of animals

The lack of the necessary technological level of carried out fundamental researches, its
discrepancy with international standards

Higher technological equipment and quality of the products of foreign countries

Decrease in the prestige of science, the lack of competitiveness of the researches, aging
assets, the outflow of “brains”

Low business interest in science, lack in science funding

The global economic crisis, inflation

Escalating of the global economic crisis into the social and political

Threats associated with the occurrence of the alliances and coalitions

The crisis of the values of civilization, coexistence of religions and cultures
 The threat of a global food security
42
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43